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***Official Super Bowl LII Thread*** - Eagles vs Patriots (2 Viewers)

Did you know that Nick Foles has as many playoff wins in the last two weeks as the Cowboys have in the last 21 years?

I found that pretty interesting.
We can talk Cowboys in that thread if you want. 

Everyone is welcome. Cowboys fans aren't ####### in their team thread

 
It’s a staple of their offense. Get Gronk on the extra LB that accounts for the 12. Seattle used Chancellor, I suppose the Eagles would use Jenkins but that puts a LB on a RB. To answer you’re question, it’s a 2 second play for Brady. They double Cox and force the edge rushers to the outside. 
IF they're doubling Cox...Jernigans will collapse the pocket from the front....forcing Brady to do that" squirrell in traffic" style scrambling that he does right into the hands of Brandon Graham.  That'll be about a 1.5 second play.  Nice try though.  

 
Why can't a game manager score over 20?  Take what the defense gives you.  There are vulnerabilities in the Patriots defense.  The Eagles just need to attack those and limit their own mistakes on offense.  Sure the Patriots could put up 30-40 but I find that unlikely given how well the Eagles D is playing right now.  
Not to single you out, but how a team did the week or weeks before really don't matter, especially when going up against NE. BB is going to come up with stuff that defenses haven't faced, TB will confuse defenders and move guys around like chess pieces, and most likely NE is going to score like they normally do. Over the past 5 seasons, the Pats have scored 20 points 87% of the time, 24 points 72% of the time, and 30 points 49% of the time.

As far as your comments on the NE / PIT game, playing in Pittsburgh is a different animal than playing in Foxborough (where Pats have beaten PIT by an average of 17 points). Just like playing in Denver is a lot different than playing in NE (where the Pats have also averaged a 17 point margin of victory against the Broncos over the past 5 years).

 
I know the Patriots have an aura and they are a very good team this year.  No doubt about that.  But they're just men and they are absolutely beatable (maybe even more so compared to years past).  I watched my team (the Steelers) take them down to the last second and for all intents and purposes beat them.  My team never even sniffs a victory against that team.  This is the team and the year to knock off the Pats.  If it doesn't happen on Sunday, I'm not sure if it will ever happen until Brady retires in 5 years.  
Wasn't the first Superbowl win for the Patriots against a team where the Patriots had no chance. Oh yeah the "Greatest Show on Turf"! 

Brady, a six round draft choice took over for injured Drew Bledsoe in that season. 

On this day in 2002, the New England Patriots shock football fans everywhere by defeating the heavily favored St. Louis Rams, 20-17, to take home their first Super Bowl victory.

http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/new-england-patriots-win-first-super-bowl

 
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Wasn't the first Superbowl win for the Patriots against a team where the Patriots had no chance. Oh yeah the "Greatest Show on Turf"! 

Brady, a six round draft choice took over for injured Drew Bledsoe in that season. 

On this day in 2002, the New England Patriots shock football fans everywhere by defeating the heavily favored St. Louis Rams, 20-17, to take home their first Super Bowl victory.
What??  As an inexperienced game manager? I was told that can't happen.

 
The Cleveland Browns of the NFC?

Maybe I'll head over one day when they're relevant again.
I will say this, whoever created the their team thread is way more technically advanced than I am. When you open the thread, Bruce Springsteen's Glory Days starts playing.  It's startling if your speakers are turned up.

 
As expected, how QB's performed in championship games hasn't really been all that indicative of the outcome of the Super Bowl games. In 51 Super Bowls, the QB that had the higher QB rating in the championship game (between the two SB quarterbacks) has gone 26-25 in Super Bowls. QB's that posted a 120 rating or higher in the game before the Super Bowl have gone 12-9, although 2 times both QB's each had a 120+ rating in the championship games (Brady and Ryan did last year). Foles had a QB rating of 141.1 last week. QB's that had a QB rating of 140+ in championship games have a SB record of 4-2.

11 QB's went on to win the SB after posting QB ratings below 70 in the championship game. The lowest QB rating in a championship game that went on to win was Bob Griese of the Dolphins in 1973 (27.8). Oddly enough, the highest QB rating in a championship game (Jim Plunkett of the 1980 Raiders at 155.8) went on to face the lowest QB rating for a winning team in a championship game (Ron Jaworski of the 1980 Eagles at 12.3).

 
Also as expected, having a great defensive effort in a championship game does not have much bearing or a carry over effect in a SB. There were 42 championship games where the winning team allowed 10 or fewer points with an average of 5.6 points allowed. (The Eagles allowed 7 points last week.) In the SB, those teams allowed an average of 21.6 points for an increase of 16 points. More importantly, those teams compiled an 18-24 record in the Super Bowl.

 
Also as expected, having a great defensive effort in a championship game does not have much bearing or a carry over effect in a SB. There were 42 championship games where the winning team allowed 10 or fewer points with an average of 5.6 points allowed. (The Eagles allowed 7 points last week.) In the SB, those teams allowed an average of 21.6 points for an increase of 16 points. More importantly, those teams compiled an 18-24 record in the Super Bowl.
Curious, can you expand your parameters to include a two-game span?  I'm curious to see the results.

 
Bottom line, they’re going to have to score well to beat the Pats. I can’t see them winning with an ultra-conservative gameplan. 

Lots of ways to skin a cat, though, so we’ll see. 
Ok I’ll bite. You say you’ve paid attention to the Eagles games. If so, have you thought for one second that Doug Pederson would ever play ultra-conservative? 

 
Everyone has tunnel vision seeing OMG NICK FOLES!!!! OMG NUMBER ONE SEED AND HOME DOGS BOTH PLAYOFF GAMES!!!! SEE THEY SUCK!!! 

:lmao:  Just shows how little people know what has been, and is, going on. Some of us won’t be surprised on February 4th. The rest of you will think it’s the greatest upset since Joe Namath apparently. :lol:   

 
Not to single you out, but how a team did the week or weeks before really don't matter, especially when going up against NE. BB is going to come up with stuff that defenses haven't faced, TB will confuse defenders and move guys around like chess pieces, and most likely NE is going to score like they normally do. Over the past 5 seasons, the Pats have scored 20 points 87% of the time, 24 points 72% of the time, and 30 points 49% of the time.

As far as your comments on the NE / PIT game, playing in Pittsburgh is a different animal than playing in Foxborough (where Pats have beaten PIT by an average of 17 points). Just like playing in Denver is a lot different than playing in NE (where the Pats have also averaged a 17 point margin of victory against the Broncos over the past 5 years).
The most relevant sample for me is what happened this year.  The Patriots have scored 30 or more 8 times in 18 games (44.4%).  The Eagles have allowed 30 or more points 1 time in 18 games (5.6%).  Again anything is possible but I think there is a pretty good chance that Philly keeps N.E. under 30.  

As to the 2nd point, I wasn't really trying to make this about Pit vs NE.  I was just trying to express that a team that has historically struggled against the Brady/Belichick Pats did well against them this year.  Yes the game was in Pittsburgh (where Brady is 6-2 BTW) and certainly things could have been different had the game been in Foxboro.  But last I checked, the Super Bowl won't be played in Foxboro either.  

 
Everyone has tunnel vision seeing OMG NICK FOLES!!!! OMG NUMBER ONE SEED AND HOME DOGS BOTH PLAYOFF GAMES!!!! SEE THEY SUCK!!! 

:lmao:  Just shows how little people know what has been, and is, going on. Some of us won’t be surprised on February 4th. The rest of you will think it’s the greatest upset since Joe Namath apparently. :lol:   
Its almost like the Eagles haven't been a top 3 team all season.

 
I don’t see how the Patriots win this game. They nearly lost to Blake Bortles. Phily’s offense is superior to Jacksonville’s and despite what the numbers say New England’s defense just isn’t very good. They couldn’t stop Jacksonville on third down the majority of the game. I think it’s likely the Eagles take advantage of the Patriots very questionable linebackers.

In the end I think the Patriots keep it fairly close because they are the ultimate professionals and will be able to counter some of what Phily is doing, but I like the Eagles to win by a td.

 
Curious, can you expand your parameters to include a two-game span?  I'm curious to see the results.
Team G1 G2 SB
02 TBB 6 10 21 W
00 BAL 10 3 7 W
00 NYG 10 0 34 L
99 DEN 3 10 19 W
97 GB 7 10 31 L
96 NE 3 6 35 L
92 BUF 3 10 52 L
91 WAS 7 10 24 W
88 SF 9 3 16 W
86 NYG 3 0 20 W
85 CHI 0 0 10 W
84 SF 10 0 16 W
78 PIT 10 5 31 W
77 DAL 7 7 10 W
75 PIT 10 10 17 W
72 WAS 3 3 14 L
70 DAL 0 10 16 L
69 KCC 6 7 7 W
AVG 6 6 2 12-6


Interesting that in the mid-70's and 80's those teams all did well. But in the last 25 years, even with two good defensive games, teams only went 3-4 in the SB and gave up a ton more points.

 
I don’t see how the Patriots win this game. They nearly lost to Blake Bortles. Phily’s offense is superior to Jacksonville’s and despite what the numbers say New England’s defense just isn’t very good. They couldn’t stop Jacksonville on third down the majority of the game. I think it’s likely the Eagles take advantage of the Patriots very questionable linebackers.

In the end I think the Patriots keep it fairly close because they are the ultimate professionals and will be able to counter some of what Phily is doing, but I like the Eagles to win by a td.
What you described is pretty much the history of the recent NE revival. Their defense has been good enough to limit TD's, gives up a ton of yardage, and forces teams to FG goal attempts. In recent years, they have made mediocre QBs look like HOFers in stretches. But they have also have had teams make stupid mistakes (on the field, coaching, play calling, time management, penalties, you know the drill). A lot of the time you could look at the personnel between NE and their opponents and look at the stats and conclude NE should probably lose. And that analysis would likely have been pretty spot on. Yet they still won. If ever there were a column for INTANGIBLES, it's New England. And it should get a pretty heavy weight, because so much falls in that category that clearly that has made a difference in games over and over again.

Where this game may be different is the Eagles are an excellent red zone team. As has been said a million times, you can't settle for FG attempts against the Pats, and this game will be no different.

 
The most relevant sample for me is what happened this year.  The Patriots have scored 30 or more 8 times in 18 games (44.4%).  The Eagles have allowed 30 or more points 1 time in 18 games (5.6%).  Again anything is possible but I think there is a pretty good chance that Philly keeps N.E. under 30.  

As to the 2nd point, I wasn't really trying to make this about Pit vs NE.  I was just trying to express that a team that has historically struggled against the Brady/Belichick Pats did well against them this year.  Yes the game was in Pittsburgh (where Brady is 6-2 BTW) and certainly things could have been different had the game been in Foxboro.  But last I checked, the Super Bowl won't be played in Foxboro either.  
I don't think NE will get into the 30's, but I suspect they will score in the 24-27 range, mostly because they almost always do. When they are not on the road in a place they never do well in (DEN or MIA for example), they usually get their points (and they often get points even in tough road games against top defenses).

The question (at least to me) becomes can PHI get to that scoring level. As I mentioned pages and pages ago, the Patriots are due to force a couple of turnovers as they have been in the longest turnover drought in the BB/TB era. IMO, that will give NE some of those points, and it will also take away scoring opportunities from PHI.

Bottom line, I think this game is a coin toss and both teams will score in the mid to upper 20's.

 
What you described is pretty much the history of the recent NE revival. Their defense has been good enough to limit TD's, gives up a ton of yardage, and forces teams to FG goal attempts. In recent years, they have made mediocre QBs look like HOFers in stretches. But they have also have had teams make stupid mistakes (on the field, coaching, play calling, time management, penalties, you know the drill). A lot of the time you could look at the personnel between NE and their opponents and look at the stats and conclude NE should probably lose. And that analysis would likely have been pretty spot on. Yet they still won. If ever there were a column for INTANGIBLES, it's New England. And it should get a pretty heavy weight, because so much falls in that category that clearly that has made a difference in games over and over again.

Where this game may be different is the Eagles are an excellent red zone team. As has been said a million times, you can't settle for FG attempts against the Pats, and this game will be no different.
Love your analysis, Anarchy. I think you are hitting the nail on the head with how Belicheck focuses on keeping teams out of the end zone, so that eventually Tom Brady will be able to do enough to win the game. Your point about the red zone is crucial, and I think Doug Pederson realizes that. I will not be surprised to see the Eagles go for it on 4th and short multiple times if they have the opportunity to do so in the red zone. That of course will be somewhat dependent on the game situation.

 
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I don't think NE will get into the 30's, but I suspect they will score in the 24-27 range, mostly because they almost always do. When they are not on the road in a place they never do well in (DEN or MIA for example), they usually get their points (and they often get points even in tough road games against top defenses).

The question (at least to me) becomes can PHI get to that scoring level. As I mentioned pages and pages ago, the Patriots are due to force a couple of turnovers as they have been in the longest turnover drought in the BB/TB era. IMO, that will give NE some of those points, and it will also take away scoring opportunities from PHI.

Bottom line, I think this game is a coin toss and both teams will score in the mid to upper 20's.
Let’s not forget the Eagles 3rd best rushing offense going against the 20th ranked rushing defense. Ball control, Eagles led the league in TOP. 

 
Love your analysis, Anarchy. I think you are hitting the nail on the head with how Belicheck focuses on keeping teams out of the end zone, So that eventually Tom Brady will be able to do enough to win the game. Your point about the red zone is crucial, and I think Doug Pederson realizes that. I will not be surprised to see the Eagles go for it on 4th and short multiple times if they have the opportunity to do so in the red zone. That of course will be somewhat dependent on the game situation.
For the Eagles, I think their coaching situation lends itself a little better than Jacksonville did. In games where Pederson was a coach, the Eagles lost to the Pats 38-20 in 2011, the Chiefs blew out NE in 2014 41-14 in KC, and the Pats won the Chiefs / Pats playoff game in the 2015 season 27-20 (although KC scored in the last minute to make the score seem closer). Bottom line, Pederson (as an OC) had a game plan that worked in the past at least in one game.

 
I honestly have to give Philly fans props. They are a passionate bunch & stick together like glue, LOL. Most of them are quite knowledgable, as well.

Their weakness is being extremely thin-skinned, but I kind of get it. It’s been tough being an Eagles fan

If anybody deserves a Super Bowl victory, it’s them. 
That and the constant garlic smell in their incessant beer farts.

 
Ok I’ll bite. You say you’ve paid attention to the Eagles games. If so, have you thought for one second that Doug Pederson would ever play ultra-conservative? 
I dunno. I was responding to the game manager question.

I really think you guys need to run 12 personnel a lot & try to pound them with Ajayi (not Blount). I’d even run 13 personnel at times with Ertz/Celek at TE & Burton off Celek (in tight) with Jeffery out wide. 

If successful, it would also help keep your DL fresh. You might get favorable passing matchups out of those personnel groups, as well.

 
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I really think the you guys need to run 12 personnel a lot & try to pound them with Ajayi (not Blount). I’d even run 13 personnel at times with Ertz/Celek at TE & Burton off Celek (in tight) with Jefferey out wide. 
As if the refs won't notice and flag us

 
I feel this could be similar to the New Orleans vs Indy Super Bowl. Everyone thought New Orleans was playing way above where they should be and waiting for the other shoe to drop. Who better to drop it on them then the great Peyton Manning. 

 
Let’s not forget the Eagles 3rd best rushing offense going against the 20th ranked rushing defense. Ball control, Eagles led the league in TOP. 
I hate statistics because they don't really show a true picture of things. While I don't think the Pats rush defense is great by any stretch, they were generally playing with the lead, were far more concerned about limiting chunk plays through the air, and having a team run chewed up time and actually helped NE. 

Do not confuse them indifferent with inability. They just held Fournette to 76 yards on 24 carries (3.1 ypc) and Henry to 28 yards on 12 carries (2.3 ypc) after both guys had huge games the week before. To end the season, they allowed only 84 rushing yards to the Bills and 65 rushing yards to the Jets. In the last month, they have only allowed 72 rushing yards a game and a 3.1 ypc.

I would guess the Pats rush defense is somewhere in the middle. Not as good as the 72 yards / 3.1 ypc that they have been giving up, but not as bad as the rushing yards ranking (20th) or ypc ranking (31st). Remember, they have had reinforcements coming back from injury that have helped improve their rush defense.

 
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I hate statistics because they don't really show a true picture of things. While I don't think the Pats rush defense is great by any stretch, they were generally playing with the league, were far more concerned about limiting chunk plays through the air, and having a team run chewed up time and actually helped NE. 

Do not confuse them indifferent with inability. They just held Fournette to 76 yards on 24 carries (3.1 ypc) and Henry to 28 yards on 12 carries (2.3 ypc) after both guys had huge games the week before. To end the season, they allowed only 84 rushing yards to the Bills and 65 rushing yards to the Jets. In the last month, they have only allowed 72 rushing yards a game and a 3.1 ypc.

I would guess the Pats rush defense is somewhere in the middle. Not as good as the 72 yards / 3.1 ypc that they have been giving up, but not as bad as the rushing yards ranking (20th) or ypc ranking (31st). Remember, they have had reinforcements coming back from injury that have helped improve their rush defense.
Says the guy who's posted countless statics all through the thread.

I do appreciate your research - I just found that statement to be....like rain on your wedding day.

 
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Says the guy who's posted countless statics all through the thread.
I try to look at multiple areas to try to see what applies to current situations. If there ends up being 20 things that point to an outcome, IMO that makes that outcome more probable (although certainly not a foregone conclusion).

This year's Pats team has things that skew their year end totals. They had a bunch of new defensive players that hadn't played together before and also had many guys get hurt that made their early season numbers bottom of the league bad. But they aren't as bad as those numbers indicate. As discussed many times, they aren't as good as their more recent numbers suggest either. So IMO, they are probably somewhere in the 12-15 range as defenses go. They mostly survive on a good enough philosophy. We'll have to see if that truly is the case or if they step up their game.

 
Team G1 G2 SB
02 TBB 6 10 21 W
00 BAL 10 3 7 W
00 NYG 10 0 34 L
99 DEN 3 10 19 W
97 GB 7 10 31 L
96 NE 3 6 35 L
92 BUF 3 10 52 L
91 WAS 7 10 24 W
88 SF 9 3 16 W
86 NYG 3 0 20 W
85 CHI 0 0 10 W
84 SF 10 0 16 W
78 PIT 10 5 31 W
77 DAL 7 7 10 W
75 PIT 10 10 17 W
72 WAS 3 3 14 L
70 DAL 0 10 16 L
69 KCC 6 7 7 W
AVG 6 6 2 12-6


Interesting that in the mid-70's and 80's those teams all did well. But in the last 25 years, even with two good defensive games, teams only went 3-4 in the SB and gave up a ton more points.
Good stuff.

I decided to see whether or not the change corresponded to the move to a two-week preparation window...and learned something.  Apparently only a small handful of Super Bowls were ever played with only one week beteen conference championship and the big game.  Something like 7/52.

Showing my football youth and inexperience I guess, but maybe others will find this tidbit informative...

 
Think a key question is, what does Doug Pederson do in the 4th quarter?

Feel like we keep seeing the same movie over and over. Opposing team develops a fine game plan, NE adjusts, opposing coach poops his pants or has a serious brain fart. 

I think the game will be tight in the 4th quarter. Game resets. Can Pederson go toe to toe with Bill? Most have failed.

 
I try to look at multiple areas to try to see what applies to current situations. If there ends up being 20 things that point to an outcome, IMO that makes that outcome more probable (although certainly not a foregone conclusion).

This year's Pats team has things that skew their year end totals. They had a bunch of new defensive players that hadn't played together before and also had many guys get hurt that made their early season numbers bottom of the league bad. But they aren't as bad as those numbers indicate. As discussed many times, they aren't as good as their more recent numbers suggest either. So IMO, they are probably somewhere in the 12-15 range as defenses go. They mostly survive on a good enough philosophy. We'll have to see if that truly is the case or if they step up their game.
believe me, i love data too, but i think some of the things you post may not apply. I have seen a few times that a team's performance for the prior 2-3 weeks before SB means nothing. This could be, but you need to look at individual differences too. The fact that the Eagles have had to start their back-up QB since week 14 can not be under-stated. Foles barely took any reps during the season, so seeing his body of work for the season is telling when you look at how he has performed after a few weeks of working with the #1s and getting his game legs back. 

 
I don't think NE will get into the 30's, but I suspect they will score in the 24-27 range, mostly because they almost always do. When they are not on the road in a place they never do well in (DEN or MIA for example), they usually get their points (and they often get points even in tough road games against top defenses).

The question (at least to me) becomes can PHI get to that scoring level. As I mentioned pages and pages ago, the Patriots are due to force a couple of turnovers as they have been in the longest turnover drought in the BB/TB era. IMO, that will give NE some of those points, and it will also take away scoring opportunities from PHI.

Bottom line, I think this game is a coin toss and both teams will score in the mid to upper 20's.
I love who hard Jay Ajayii runs.....but I hate that spin sideways he makes before being down to try and get that extra half yard or so.  That ball looks like a loaf of bread hanging out there.

 
Think a key question is, what does Doug Pederson do in the 4th quarter?

Feel like we keep seeing the same movie over and over. Opposing team develops a fine game plan, NE adjusts, opposing coach poops his pants or has a serious brain fart. 

I think the game will be tight in the 4th quarter. Game resets. Can Pederson go toe to toe with Bill? Most have failed.
IF Dougie P is going to screw up....it'll be before the 4th quarter. 

 
well, i think we were worried about this, but New England is definitely cooler and more hip than Philly:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEOj-IoIgXo

congrats New England area
That song’s almost HALF as old as The Eagles last Championship trophy... hell... that relic predates the Beatles. :lol:  

Naw... for New England I think this works better: 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A1NZcH2haIM

The boys are back for that elusive 3rd ring in 4 years... for the second time since Philly has won anything ;)  

 
That song’s almost HALF as old as The Eagles last Championship trophy... hell... that relic predates the Beatles. :lol:  

Naw... for New England I think this works better: 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A1NZcH2haIM

The boys are back for that elusive 3rd ring in 4 years... for the second time since Philly has won anything ;)  
lol, most over-rated excuse for a band that i can think of in the last 20 years. What a joke. Philly punk scene, obliterates that:  https://noisey.vice.com/en_us/article/r34ej6/philadelphia-has-the-best-punk-scene-in-the-country-right-now

For Eagles specific, we will go for actual music made for the teams specifically. I am sure there are others, but this one touches my hear a bit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLy_L66kbfc

 
lol, most over-rated excuse for a band that i can think of in the last 20 years. What a joke. Philly punk scene, obliterates that:  https://noisey.vice.com/en_us/article/r34ej6/philadelphia-has-the-best-punk-scene-in-the-country-right-now

For Eagles specific, we will go for actual music made for the teams specifically. I am sure there are others, but this one touches my hear a bit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLy_L66kbfc
If my City was so bad at winning Championships there wasn’t even color video footage of their last title, I’d probably want to keep steering the Super Bowl conversation toward the music scene, too. 

 
If my City was so bad at winning Championships there wasn’t even color video footage of their last title, I’d probably want to keep steering the Super Bowl conversation toward the music scene, too. 
:boxing:  we already have the game in hand, so i was just pointing out other ways Philly is superior to the Tatum-loving NE/Boston fan-base. One more to finish the music category out, and i am not a huge fan of the song, but the fact that every other city uses this song should stand for something:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnqZl_blT7E

 

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