Great job with those projections dgreen and good discussion everyone.
First of all I think the total number of plays at 1030 makes sense. The offense has been a bit below this the 2 seasons with Gruden as HC. In 2013 with Skeletor the team had over 1100 plays and that makes a huge difference, almost two games more plays than the pace of the last 2 seasons. Part of the difference is the team only won 3 games in 2013 so they were passing the ball more trying to catch up
Kirk Cousins has been remarkably better at avoiding sacks than the other QB. Part of this is the offensive line showing some good improvement as well. 30 Sacks seems like a good expectation. He was sacked 26 times last year.
I am not sure if you subtracted the sack yardage before allocating the WR totals? Or if you did this the other way around? We are only talking about something like 200 yards, but those are 200 yards that receivers will still get, even though the QB passing yards will be lower.
Garcon has had a bit over 100 targets the last two seasons. 80 targets is perhaps conservative, but it makes sense as there are more quality receivers to work with now.
For Reed if I pro rate the targets from 2014 and 2015 to account for games missed, then average those two seasons of targets, I get 113. So your targets for Reed might be about 10 too high, assuming your projection is meant to be the median expectation. 125 targets certainly possible. He was on pace for 130 last season.
For Jackson using the same process I get 87 targets as his average for the last two seasons. So maybe a bit low there.
While Crowder had a lot of targets as rookie last season, if you look at the
game logs, most of his high target games occurred when Jackson was out. Jackson played in the first game but he only had one target. He was not really used in the last game either. Crowder had 29 targets when Jackson was playing, game 8 through 15 which is 8 games. This would be 58 targets if it remained the same. He isn't a rookie anymore, so some improvement should be expected, 85 targets still seems like too many however, if we are assuming all of the players will be healthy I think.
I count 71 targets to the RBs in 2015 (including Carrier not sure if you guys consider him a TE or a RB?) This is significantly less than the around 100 targets that RB had in 2014. Main difference here being Roy Helu I think who got some decent opportunity that year. You have 105 targets going to RBs. I could see shaving 20 targets from the RBs.
Personally I am pretty impressed with Josh Doctson and I think he will make a larger impact than what you have projected for him. I could see 60 targets going his way pretty easily and possibly more. Where those targets would most likely come from I think would be Crowder and the RBs.
