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***OFFICIAL*** Washington Commanders Thread (3 Viewers)

PinkydaPimp said:
That is my understanding.  What happens if Detroit wins though?  And are Dallas resting players?
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If Detroit wins tonight, then we need Detroit to beat GB next week. A GB win would give GB the division and Det the wildcard.

Also, I believe a Det-GB tie next week hurts us if Detroit loses this week. So it's not a literal "win and you're in" scenario, but basically 99%. 

ETA: I don't think Dallas is resting players. 

 
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MikeApf said:
After all our ups and downs we win next week we're in.  You can't ask for more than that .

Dont crap the bed boys...
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Well, you also have to hope that GB and Det don't tie.  In that case, both are in, Redskins are out.

Just one more layer of suspense for Sunday Night next week...

 
Arodin said:
Well, you also have to hope that GB and Det don't tie.  In that case, both are in, Redskins are out.

Just one more layer of suspense for Sunday Night next week...
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True.  I have a feeling gb is gonna go in there and smoke them.  Not sure why I think so they are just on a mission....

 
Sebowski said:
We're playing the Seahawks again :lol:

Ugh....
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We gotta hope that New Orleans can beat Atlanta.  I think there is a scenario where if New Orleans beats Atlanta and Seattle wins, Seattle will get the bye.  Seems like a lot of things to happen but it could.  New Orleans has been playing hard even though they've had a rough season and they are still pretty dangerous with Brees and that offense.   And Seattle plays San Francisco, so you know what's going to happen there.  Still very likely we end up playing Seattle but it's not a complete lock, so we can at least hope to catch someone else in the wildcard round.

Of course, we haven't even beat the Giants yet.  That's the big challenge.  If we get in the playoffs at all, that's going to be a huge accomplishment and I think the season will be considered a success no matter what else happens...

 
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PinkydaPimp said:
so what if both teams just agree before the game not to score?  :shrug:
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It's not likely that Detroit would go for that.  In the event of a tie, GB wins division, and Detroit would become the # 6 seed and have to play their first game on the road.  Green Bay has nothing to lose from a tie.  Detroit has a lot to lose from a tie.  You could make the argument that both teams would be getting "certainty" from the tie, but this is a sport dominated by Alpha Males...they are not making that bargain.  If they do, time to turn in the "man card," seriously...

 
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MikeApf said:
It's not likely that Detroit would go for that.  In the event of a tie, GB wins division, and Detroit would become the # 5 seed and have to play their first game on the road.  Green Bay has nothing to lose from a tie.  Detroit has a lot to lose from a tie. 
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So wait who get in if GB and detroit tie and the redskins dont make it after beating the Giants?  Tampa?

 
PinkydaPimp said:
So wait who get in if GB and detroit tie and the redskins dont make it after beating the Giants?  Tampa?
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If Green Bay and Detroit tie, the Redskins are eliminated.  In the event of a tie -- and assuming a Redskins win vs. NYG -- all three teams would be 9-6-1.  Green Bay would be division champion based on a tie breaker vs. Detroit (1 head to head victory, 1 tie).  Meanwhile, Detroit would get the #6 seed (sorry I said # 5 above) over Washington based on head to head victory.  NYG would remain the # 5 seed.

So yeah, a tie would suck for us.  But what are the odds.

Right?  :-)

 
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dgreen said:
Some quick, minimal though 2016 offensive projections:

Total - 1,030 plays for 5,815 yards

Passing (including sacks) - 600 plays for 4,065 yards

Rushing - 430 plays for 1,750 yards


 


Att


Comp


Comp%


Yds


Y/A


TD


Int


Cousins


550


373


67.8


4120


7.5


28


13


McCoy


20


13


65.0


155


7.8


1


1


 


570


386


67.7


4275


7.5


29


14


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Att


Yds


Avg


TD


 


 


 


Jones


225


910


4.0


7


 


 


 


Thompson


80


360


4.5


1


 


 


 


Cousins


25


70


2.8


2


 


 


 


Other


100


410


4.1


2


 


 


 


 


430


1750


4.1


12


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Tar


Rec


Yds


Avg


TD


 


 


Jackson


80


50


850


17.0


6


 


 


Garcon


80


48


510


10.6


3


 


 


Crowder


85


65


700


10.8


3


 


 


Doctson


40


25


325


13.0


1


 


 


Reed


125


90


960


10.7


9


 


 


Paul


25


15


170


11.3


0


 


 


Davis


30


18


160


8.9


0


 


 


Jones


25


20


180


9.0


2


 


 


Thompson


45


35


260


7.4


2


 


 


Other


35


20


160


8.0


2


 


 


 


570


386


4275


11.1


28


 


 
Click to expand...
Through 15 games:






Att


Comp


Comp%


Yds


Y/A


TD


Int


Cousins


571


384


67.3


4630


8.1


24


10


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Att


Yds


Avg


TD


 


 


 


Kelley


156


671


4.3


6


 


 


 


Jones


99


460


4.6


3


 


 


 


Thompson


65


351


5.4


3


 


 


 


Cousins


34


96


2.8


4


 


 


 


Other


10


80


8.0


1


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Tar


Rec


Yds


Avg


TD


 


 


Jackson


95


54


971


18.0


4


 


 


Garcon


107


75


945


12.6


3


 


 


Crowder


96


65


831


12.8


7


 


 


Reed


83


61


646


10.6


5


 


 


Davis


56


42


534


12.7


2


 


 


Thompson


54


43


312


7.3


2


 


 


Jones


8


8


73


9.1


0


 


 


Doctson


6


2


66


33.0


0


 


 


Paul


2


2


27


13.5


0


 


 


Other


52


33


256


8.0


2


 


 


 
Cousins has an outside chance at 5,000 yards and both Jackson and Garcon should go over 1,000 yards.

I thought the offense had a chance to be a top 5 offense and they've done that. A slightly better running game than I expected and a lot more passing yards. Currently have run 955 plays for 6,170 yards (3rd behind ATL and NOS) for 6.5 yards per play (2nd behind ATL). Third best in sacks allowed (19, 3.2% of pass plays).

2nd in drives that end in a score (45.7%) and 1st in average yards per drive (38.1).

I don't feel like looking at the defensive stats.

 
dgreen said:
Going to be awesome when we win @ Seattle and then @ Dallas. :unsure:  
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Dgreen, you were out front after the Arizona loss, that ball would bounce our way and we were gonna make the final push...so, I'm getting on the bandwagon!

 
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I already hate Seattle MORE than Dallas (since they have knocked us out of the playoffs the last 2 times we made it) and I just can't think about losing to them a 3rd time. Starting to wonder if that tie might be better for my mental health  ;)

 
CabinFever said:
I already hate Seattle MORE than Dallas (since they have knocked us out of the playoffs the last 2 times we made it) and I just can't think about losing to them a 3rd time. Starting to wonder if that tie might be better for my mental health  ;)
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It's been the last 3 times (2005, 2007, and 2012).

 
MikeApf said:
And the third time was a b***
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2007 pretty much sucked, too. That was the Sean Taylor death season. Down 13-0 entering the 4th, Redskins quickly strike twice to take a 14-13 lead. Gave me that "wow, we're destined" type of feeling. Then everything just fell apart. Seattle responded with a TD drive and 2 pt conversion to go up 7 and then added two long INT TDs to turn it into a blowout. I remember towards the end of the game, Chris Collinsworth said he had asked Gibbs the night before if he thought the players had anything left (after dealing with the death and winning 4 straight - with Todd Collins! - to get in the playoffs) and Gibbs said he wasn't sure. It seemed Gibbs already knew they were spent.

The worst part of 2005 was being up 3-0 and having Carlos Rogers drop a pick 6. They may have pulled that one out if he could have caught that. The rumor is that the offensive struggles in the playoffs vs Tampa and Seattle are what led to the Al Saunders signing in 2006 to modernize the offense...that backfired.

I hate Seattle.

 
So what if we didn't tie? Had we won, we'd be 9-6. That would give a win-and-you're-in scenario with a shot at the 5th seed, but also give a scenario to make it in with a loss this week.

If the tie was turned into a L, would need to win and Detroit to beat GB to put us and GB at 9-7. We'd win that based on HTH with GB. Not sure what would happen if TB also wins to create a three way 9-7 tie (or a three way tie with Det-Was-TB). That would be a messy situation that probably comes down to common games or something.

So I'd say the tie was more helpful that hurtful. Flipping the tie to a W helps some, but doesn't seem to change things hugely.

The biggest problems are the first Dallas loss and the Detroit loss. The Dallas game had about a 90% win probability just before the Cousins INT in the endzone. The Detroit game was around 80% after kicking off to them up 17-13. Flip one of those games and we've already clinched with a shot at the 5 seed.

 
dgreen said:
So what if we didn't tie? Had we won, we'd be 9-6. That would give a win-and-you're-in scenario with a shot at the 5th seed, but also give a scenario to make it in with a loss this week.

If the tie was turned into a L, would need to win and Detroit to beat GB to put us and GB at 9-7. We'd win that based on HTH with GB. Not sure what would happen if TB also wins to create a three way 9-7 tie (or a three way tie with Det-Was-TB). That would be a messy situation that probably comes down to common games or something.

So I'd say the tie was more helpful that hurtful. Flipping the tie to a W helps some, but doesn't seem to change things hugely.

The biggest problems are the first Dallas loss and the Detroit loss. The Dallas game had about a 90% win probability just before the Cousins INT in the endzone. The Detroit game was around 80% after kicking off to them up 17-13. Flip one of those games and we've already clinched with a shot at the 5 seed.
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It's often said, but the margin of victory is so thin in the NFL it often hinges on one or two plays.  I totally agree that it's frustrating to see the games we *could* have won if we had just executed a "little" better at the key moments:  Dallas, Cincy, Detroit, even Arizona are four of our 6 losses that could have gone the other way.

On the other hand, we have also won razor thin games, due to key plays:  what if Eli doesn't throw key picks in that third game...we may go 0-3 and in full rebuilding mode early in the season.  Late INT and fumble by Cleveland stopped their rally when we couldn't stop Crowell or Pryor.  Kerrigan's strip sack on Wentz vs. Phiadelphia basically bailed out another horrible late game defensive collapse. 

This is kind of an intangiable thing that separates great teams from average teams.  They more often seem to make the right plays in key situations at the right time.  I'm not sure exactly how you get there, but I guess a lot of it has to do with discipline and coaching and consistency. 

Not saying you are wrong...I agree we blew chances.  But we also benefited from close games.  I guess I agree with your point but think it really just shows that this idea of staying disciplined and making key plays at the right time is really, really key and impacts many "average teams," with teams like the Patriots standing apart for their consistency...

 
MikeApf said:
It's often said, but the margin of victory is so thin in the NFL it often hinges on one or two plays.  I totally agree that it's frustrating to see the games we *could* have won if we had just executed a "little" better at the key moments:  Dallas, Cincy, Detroit, even Arizona are four of our 6 losses that could have gone the other way.

On the other hand, we have also won razor thin games, due to key plays:  what if Eli doesn't throw key picks in that third game...we may go 0-3 and in full rebuilding mode early in the season.  Late INT and fumble by Cleveland stopped their rally when we couldn't stop Crowell or Pryor.  Kerrigan's strip sack on Wentz vs. Phiadelphia basically bailed out another horrible late game defensive collapse. 

This is kind of an intangiable thing that separates great teams from average teams.  They more often seem to make the right plays in key situations at the right time.  I'm not sure exactly how you get there, but I guess a lot of it has to do with discipline and coaching and consistency. 

Not saying you are wrong...I agree we blew chances.  But we also benefited from close games.  I guess I agree with your point but think it really just shows that this idea of staying disciplined and making key plays at the right time is really, really key and impacts many "average teams," with teams like the Patriots standing apart for their consistency...
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Oh, I agree. Have to look at it both ways and I didn't do that. So, let me do that...

Looks like we didn't snag away any low probability wins late in games. The Dallas and Detroit games were about 90% win probabilities for us in the 4th quarter. One situation had us up 3 with the ball inside the Dallas 10 yard line in the 4th quarter and the Cousins throws the INT. The other situation is going up 4 with just over a minute left and kicking off to Detroit.

The most unlikely wins I could find is PHI with about a 60% chance to win with about 5 minutes remaining in the 4th and the Giants at about 70% at 14 minutes (Dunbar INT ended that keeping Redskins up by 2) and 9 minutes in the 4th quarter (drive ended in NYG go-ahead FG).

There was the Baltimore game, though, where a TD pass for Baltimore was (correctly) called back during review. That was a scary moment and could have gone against us. But, our win probability was around 70-75% at that time (and was about 85% to start that Baltimore drive).

(And speaking of that Cleveland fumble, we didn't even recover it. The ref just said we did despite the Brown player actually holding up the ball outside of the pile of people. :lmao: )

Of course, this type of stuff is likely true for several teams...which I won't take the time to look into.

 
MikeApf said:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/12/28/good-news-lions-and-packers-giants-say-they-wont-rest-starters/

Apparently giants not not resting their starters.  I'm actually happy as I could see that making the redskins complacent.  We can compete but we have to bring out a game for sure,
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Not sure how much I buy the PFT conclusion. It's basically one quote from Rashad Jennings saying everyone is going to play ... but not saying how much they will play. And one guy saying the Tuesday prep was all Skins, nothing about the playoffs, which is meaningless since it's only Tuesday and they don't know who they'll be playing in the playoffs anyway.

I bet we see something like our Week 17 game last year, where Jay let guys like Cousins and Alf play the first half and sat them for the second half.  Hopefully not with the same result for the resting team, though. 

 
Now McAdoo says the starters will play, and when asked how long he said "the game."

Ill believe it when I see it.  My guess is most of the starters play the first half but that theyll be super-cautious with injuries (anyone listed probably sits) and will start selectively benching guys as the game goes on depending on how it goes. 

 
to be honest, i would prefer it this way.  If we cant beat the Giants at full speed, i dont want to be in the post season and embarrass ourselves and end off with a worse draft pick.  go big or go home gents.

 
PinkydaPimp said:
to be honest, i would prefer it this way.  If we cant beat the Giants at full speed, i dont want to be in the post season and embarrass ourselves and end off with a worse draft pick.  go big or go home gents.
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Not me. Everyone can lay an egg. Doesn't define the team. I'll get in any way we can take it. 2 straight Playoff years hasn't happened in a long time. 90s? Let's get that monkey off our back ASAP. 

 
No way Giants play their starters the entire game and it's coaching malpractice if they do. Look for parade of backups starting after halftime, if not earlier. This has been a fun team to watch and I hope they make the playoffs. Their offense is impressive and Cousins has made himself a fortune. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they end up putting the franchise tag on him. There's no way you can just let this guy walk away 

 
Anyone know if Reed will be active tomorrow?  I read somewhere Gruden would decide Satuday but can't find a definitive answer anywhere.

 
AquaBliss said:
Anyone know if Reed will be active tomorrow?  I read somewhere Gruden would decide Satuday but can't find a definitive answer anywhere.
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http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/8412/jordan-reed

Take it for what it's worth.  He'll trot Reed out there with the season on the line, but he's not 100% healthy so it's a serious risk to start him in any fantasy league imo.  I think rotoworlds characterization of "boom or bust"  makes sense

 
I'm ok if Gruden is gone. Maybe I will change my opinion when I'm less angry, but I've never been a big fan. 

 
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