OK, so I'm going to be on The Audible (1 Viewer)

[Doug Drinen]

Must be real slow times, because Cecil and Sigmund have asked me to appear on The Audible. In order to make the show as compelling as possible, I figured I'd solicit questions and/or discussion topics from The Pool.

In case you don't know me, my main schticks are:

1. I run a site called pro-football-reference.com which houses gobs of moldy old NFL stats.

2. I have been with FBG since 2000. In the past, I wrote lots of stat-based articles for footballguys, but I now mainly work behind the scenes on tech stuff.

3. I'm pretty good at running database queries.

So if you have any questions about the history of p-f-r, about FBG features, or about football stats in general, post them here.

 

[Enforcer]

What books would you recommend for data/stats junkies that are sports related?

Who are your influences in the arena of sports statistics?

What do you see as the biggest conduits for change in fantasy football over the past 20-30 years? Specific people? Technology? Rule changes in the NFL?

What writers in the fantasy football business instantly draw your attention when they publish something new?

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Doug, when are you going to be on? Gives me a timeline to think about what to post on here for suggestions.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Doug, when are you going to be on? Gives me a timeline to think about what to post on here for suggestions.

We're recording on Thursday night.

 

[Couch Potato]

Square roots and cosines and binomial equations and such. Your audience would be mesmerized.

Then, if there's still time, talk about the role of pure dumb chance in FF and how futile all this is that we do every week to gain an edge.

Or maybe not. It'd just be too depressing.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

How do WR like Santonio Holmes peform the year after they avg 18+ ypc? What do they typically project out at the next season?

 

[Chase Stuart]

How do WR like Santonio Holmes peform the year after they avg 18+ ypc? What do they typically project out at the next season?

I'm not Doug, but there are 48 WRs since '95 that have gained between 800 and 1142 yards at the age of 22, 23 or 24. The average of that group was 23 years old and had 942 receiving yards, just like Holmes. Nine of the WRs average more YPC than Holmes. Three of the WR seasons happened in '07, and another five had injuries the next year. 40 of the WRs played the next season. I split them into those with a high YPC the first year and those with a low YPC the first year. The high YPC guys averaged 56-928-6-16.9 in the season in question; the low YPC guys 69-943-6-13.8. The following year, the original high YPC guys averaged 15 G, 57-848-5; the original low YPC guys averaged 15.3 G, 67-935-5. So a very slight edge to the low YPC guys in having more receiving yards the following year.I also ran a regression using yards per game in year N and yards per catch in Year N, to predict yards per game in Year N+1. The result? Not a very strong weight attached to the YPC variable. Basically, a WR with a 18 YPR average might be expected to average about five fewer yards per game than one who averages say 14 YPR. But even that low practical weight isn't statistically significant.In other words, I'd be only the slightest bit less high on Santonio Holmes if he had 52-942 last year, then if he had actually had 62-942 or 72-942.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Where do you find the time?

 

[anakin]

What's the name of your avatar? He looks kinda mean, but in a Cleveland Browns way!

 

[Dirty Weasel]

One topic for discussion - how has lengths of careers changed for QB's, RB's, and WR's over the past 30 years. I figured starting from 1978 would be good, since that is when the NFL went to a 16-game schedule. My guess is that advances in medicine have prolonged many careers, but which positions have been affected the most?

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

What's the name of your avatar? He looks kinda mean, but in a Cleveland Browns way!

Pistol Pete ...

 

[Chase Stuart]

If there was one stat we could have officially that we don't already have, what would it be? (Not something like "greatest QB ever rating", but "Pancake blocks for OL, 100% accurate target data going back to the '30s, part of the field where the run/pass was, drops data, hurries data, etc.)

 

[Anjin-san]

What is your favourite colour of spandex shirt?

 

[gheemony]

What do you think of the work by Football Outsiders.com?

In baseball, IMO, there have been stats that have really revolutionized player evaluation and valuation (OBP, OPS, SO/BB, SO rate, etc.). Do you see development of any type of stat like that for football?

When evaluating a player at each position, what stat do you look at most (e.g., completion % for QBs)?

Matt Forte or Kevin Smith?

Jonathan Stewart or Darren McFadden?

Great idea to have you on!

 

[Englishteacher]

Which of the young QB's outside of the Top 12, or current QB1 material, will be the best dynasty QB when the dust settles?

We're talking David Garrard, Aaron Rogers?/Brohm, Jason Campbell, Matt Schaub, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Matt Ryan, Jamarcus Russell here. There are others you could include in the discussion but these guys seem to be the top candidates.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

What do you think of the potential application of prediction markets to sports (for statistical projections, etc.)?

 

[massraider]

Discuss the origin of how all you dweebs got together in order to form this wonderful site.

 

[Couch Potato]

Which of the young QB's outside of the Top 12, or current QB1 material, will be the best dynasty QB when the dust settles?

We're talking David Garrard, Aaron Rogers?/Brohm, Jason Campbell, Matt Schaub, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Matt Ryan, Jamarcus Russell here. There are others you could include in the discussion but these guys seem to be the top candidates.

While a new starter, Garrard has been around awhile. He's already 30. That age is not an issue at all at the QB position, but I did want to point out he's not in the youngster category with the others you listed.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

How do WR like Santonio Holmes peform the year after they avg 18+ ypc? What do they typically project out at the next season?

I'm not Doug, but there are 48 WRs since '95 that have gained between 800 and 1142 yards at the age of 22, 23 or 24. The average of that group was 23 years old and had 942 receiving yards, just like Holmes. Nine of the WRs average more YPC than Holmes. Three of the WR seasons happened in '07, and another five had injuries the next year. 40 of the WRs played the next season. I split them into those with a high YPC the first year and those with a low YPC the first year. The high YPC guys averaged 56-928-6-16.9 in the season in question; the low YPC guys 69-943-6-13.8. The following year, the original high YPC guys averaged 15 G, 57-848-5; the original low YPC guys averaged 15.3 G, 67-935-5. So a very slight edge to the low YPC guys in having more receiving yards the following year.I also ran a regression using yards per game in year N and yards per catch in Year N, to predict yards per game in Year N+1. The result? Not a very strong weight attached to the YPC variable. Basically, a WR with a 18 YPR average might be expected to average about five fewer yards per game than one who averages say 14 YPR. But even that low practical weight isn't statistically significant.In other words, I'd be only the slightest bit less high on Santonio Holmes if he had 52-942 last year, then if he had actually had 62-942 or 72-942.

That was sweet. So they were not a lock for 70-80 catches, 1,200 yds, and 10-12 TD...yes/no?

 

[FUBAR]

How do WR like Santonio Holmes peform the year after they avg 18+ ypc? What do they typically project out at the next season?

I'm not Doug, but there are 48 WRs since '95 that have gained between 800 and 1142 yards at the age of 22, 23 or 24. The average of that group was 23 years old and had 942 receiving yards, just like Holmes. Nine of the WRs average more YPC than Holmes. Three of the WR seasons happened in '07, and another five had injuries the next year. 40 of the WRs played the next season. I split them into those with a high YPC the first year and those with a low YPC the first year. The high YPC guys averaged 56-928-6-16.9 in the season in question; the low YPC guys 69-943-6-13.8. The following year, the original high YPC guys averaged 15 G, 57-848-5; the original low YPC guys averaged 15.3 G, 67-935-5. So a very slight edge to the low YPC guys in having more receiving yards the following year.I also ran a regression using yards per game in year N and yards per catch in Year N, to predict yards per game in Year N+1. The result? Not a very strong weight attached to the YPC variable. Basically, a WR with a 18 YPR average might be expected to average about five fewer yards per game than one who averages say 14 YPR. But even that low practical weight isn't statistically significant.In other words, I'd be only the slightest bit less high on Santonio Holmes if he had 52-942 last year, then if he had actually had 62-942 or 72-942.

That was sweet. So they were not a lock for 70-80 catches, 1,200 yds, and 10-12 TD...yes/no?

Dear Mr. Obvious,Is ANY 3rd year WR a "lock" for over 1,000/10?

 

[Chase Stuart]

How do WR like Santonio Holmes peform the year after they avg 18+ ypc? What do they typically project out at the next season?

I'm not Doug, but there are 48 WRs since '95 that have gained between 800 and 1142 yards at the age of 22, 23 or 24. The average of that group was 23 years old and had 942 receiving yards, just like Holmes. Nine of the WRs average more YPC than Holmes. Three of the WR seasons happened in '07, and another five had injuries the next year. 40 of the WRs played the next season. I split them into those with a high YPC the first year and those with a low YPC the first year. The high YPC guys averaged 56-928-6-16.9 in the season in question; the low YPC guys 69-943-6-13.8. The following year, the original high YPC guys averaged 15 G, 57-848-5; the original low YPC guys averaged 15.3 G, 67-935-5. So a very slight edge to the low YPC guys in having more receiving yards the following year.I also ran a regression using yards per game in year N and yards per catch in Year N, to predict yards per game in Year N+1. The result? Not a very strong weight attached to the YPC variable. Basically, a WR with a 18 YPR average might be expected to average about five fewer yards per game than one who averages say 14 YPR. But even that low practical weight isn't statistically significant.In other words, I'd be only the slightest bit less high on Santonio Holmes if he had 52-942 last year, then if he had actually had 62-942 or 72-942.

That was sweet. So they were not a lock for 70-80 catches, 1,200 yds, and 10-12 TD...yes/no?

I had assumed your question was something like "given X number of receiving yards, is having a really high YPR rate better or worse than not having one?"Obviously X yards is the most important factor, which is why I inferred that from the question. If the question is do young WRs with good yardage totals and excellent YPR numbers turn into studs the next year, the answer is obviously no. But it's more important to compare the high YPR to the low YPR guys, since no group of players with good yardage totals are going to be project out as studs next year. To avoid being misleading, and to factor in regression to the mean, some control group is necessary.

 

[Englishteacher]

Which of the young QB's outside of the Top 12, or current QB1 material, will be the best dynasty QB when the dust settles?

We're talking David Garrard, Aaron Rogers?/Brohm, Jason Campbell, Matt Schaub, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Matt Ryan, Jamarcus Russell here. There are others you could include in the discussion but these guys seem to be the top candidates.

While a new starter, Garrard has been around awhile. He's already 30. That age is not an issue at all at the QB position, but I did want to point out he's not in the youngster category with the others you listed.

True and I knew that. Thanks. He is new to the starter role however and is young enough that he should be considered a good long term buy as opposed to guys who have maybe maxed out their potential and are older like Jon Kitna and Jake Delhomme who are also in the early QB2 range. I'm in a 6 point per passing TD where all the top QB's are being kept. The next group of QB2's are hard to get a hold of evaluation wise. None of them exactly jump out and say, "Hey, I'm the next QB1 guy."

Maybe some stats input from Drinen will help.

 

[barista]

I'd be really curious about league rules and how PPR leagues can be better gamed. If there is an "ideal" scoring set up – and what that even means. Do we want player parity across position? Statistically how do the positions tier out. By years end on a consistent basis (using those moldy stats) do WRs or RBs tend to tier better. what % of the projected players perform at their tier by position.

 

[David Yudkin]

When building a house of cards, what foundation/strategy do you recommend?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

When building a house of cards, what foundation/strategy do you recommend?

Glue

 

[Franknbeans]

What is your favorite stat for predicting fantasy performance and why?

 

[Mark Wimer]

Doug,

Given your knowledge of mathematics/statistics and your many years of experience analyzing fantasy football, what commonly-used statistics/events that are utilized for scoring (ie., yards gained, TDs scored, Interceptions thrown) in the game of fantasy football are most reliably predictable/projectable in your opinion? Which statistics/events are most random and least predictable/projectable? Which is your favorite stat for predicting fantasy performance (taken from FrankNBeans post just above this one)?

When you are creating your own draft lists, what statistics/events/factors do you give the most weight to in determining who is higher on the list and who is lower on the list? When deciding between 2 players during a draft, which statistics/events/factors tend to sway you toward one player over another? For example, if you had to decide between drafting Tom Brady and Peyton Manning for your QB1 this year, which player would you select and why?

Could you please explain how a 16-event season (such as the NFL regular season) is different from a 162-event season (such as the MLB regular season) when it comes to statistical analysis/projection?

In recent weeks, an interesting thread has been in play on the Footballguys.com message board, discussing who was the worst QB in NFL history. From your perspective, who was the worst QB to play at least one season in the NFL? Which of the numerous draft busts (Cade McNown, Andre Ware, Ryan Leaf, Art Schlichter etc) would you tab as the worst draft bust ever - or who are on your list as top 5 worst draft busts at the QB position?

 

[FUBAR]

If we got into an argument, how would we settle it?

Why did you break up with your last boyfriend?

Do you want to get or have you ever been married?

Do you want or do you have any children?

What are you most proud of in your life?

Where do you see yourself in five years?

What do you do for fun?

What do you do for work?

Is sexual compatibility important to you?

What do you look for in a boyfriend/husband?

Is religion important to you?

 

[FUBAR]

Ok, serious question.

You're probably familiar with Billy Beane's moneyball; is there a similar applicable theory with football players, if so what?

 

[Jene Bramel]

When building a house of cards, what foundation/strategy do you recommend?

 

[MaddHatter]

The three Ball State prospects --- Nate Davis, Dante Love, and Darius Hill.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Must be real slow times, because Cecil and Sigmund have asked me to appear on The Audible. In order to make the show as compelling as possible, I figured I'd solicit questions and/or discussion topics from The Pool.

In case you don't know me, my main schticks are:

1. I run a site called pro-football-reference.com which houses gobs of moldy old NFL stats.

2. I have been with FBG since 2000. In the past, I wrote lots of stat-based articles for footballguys, but I now mainly work behind the scenes on tech stuff.

3. I'm pretty good at running database queries.

So if you have any questions about the history of p-f-r, about FBG features, or about football stats in general, post them here.

I don't know about that, but I just want to say thanks for your site. It's a great reference (as the name implies) and it's been a bookmark of mine for quite a while. I didn't know you posted here so I just wanted to say thank you.

 

[roadkill1292]

Square roots and cosines and binomial equations and such. Your audience would be mesmerized.Then, if there's still time, talk about the role of pure dumb chance in FF and how futile all this is that we do every week to gain an edge.Or maybe not. It'd just be too depressing. :(

oll

 

[Cecil Lammey]

Can't wait to record with you Doug!

Anyone out there that would like to call in and ask Drinen a question just PM me or Bloom for the studio #.

 

[Raider Nation]

Discuss the origin of how all you dweebs got together in order to form this wonderful site.

Rec.Sport.Football.Fantasy newsgroup, mid-90s.It used to be the only place to talk about this hobby. Now it's a wasteland of SPAM.

 

[SSOG]

When are you going to finally going to get around to incorperating rate stats into the Data Dominator and the Historical Data Dominator. For instance, the ability to sort in the Data Dominator by either cumulative stats or stats per game, or the ability to sort in Historical Data Dominator by Statistic 1 divided by Statistic 2?