OK what changed about rankings in FFL this year? (1 Viewer)

[League_dont_know_this_one]

I've been looking at rankings on multiple sites for years now (Fantasy Index, FantasyGuru, FBG, etc.) and one constant has been that RBs are the top 5 almost exclusively, and usually 9 or 10 out of the top 15. But this year both here and with Fantasy Index QBs seem to be ranked higher than they have been in the past.

Is this a reflection of the great seasons that Rodgers and Vick had, or does it reflect a general change in consensus regarding the relative value of QBs (higher) or RBs (lower)?

I spent an hour re-checking my setup inputs because I thought there must have been some error, but my scoring is all correct.

Is anyone else seeing this change in pattern?

 

[shadyridr]

It is becoming a passing friendly league.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

RB is becoming a dead position

and to me the top6/7 QBs give you an advantage over the other 5 owners in your league.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

It is becoming a passing friendly league.

Pass friendly, stud QB's stay stud QB's, stud WR's stay stud WR's, RBBC's are everywhere.

 

[Doug B]

On top of what shady said, with RBBC so popular in the real-life NFL, the top tier of fantasy RBs had gotten tiny. Not enough to fill up so much of the first round. The sheer dropoff at the RB position from no-doubt studs to the good-but-flawed guys comes earlier than it used to.

It used to be that grabbing, say, the 10th-best RB at the turn was a no-brainer call over taking the top QB. The cut-off of those speculative legit fantasy RB1s used to be around RB8 to maybe RB 14 in some seasons.

Another factor could be the popularity of PPR. PPR makes the number of startable RBs larger than it would normally be, dragging down every so slightly the value of the positon's sub-elite tiers.

 

[Doug B]

... and to me the top6/7 QBs give you an advantage over the other 5 owners in your league.

Go back 15-20 years. Used to be that 25-29 passing TDs would be at or close to the league lead, and there were also enough guys who threw 3500 yds and 21-24 TDs so that there wasn't a ton of separation among fantasy QB1s. I remember when Marc Brunell had a 4000+ yds/19 TD season for the Jaguars, and that was a bona fide QB1 season.

 

[Concept Coop]

RB is becoming a dead position and to me the top6/7 QBs give you an advantage over the other 5 owners in your league.

Forgive me if I missed your sarcasm.But the RB position is far from dead. It is hands down the most important position, as the NFL shies away from every down backs. Every starting QB and most starting WRs are every down players. Therefore, the RB position has an extra variable - extra means to create separation in value. Aaron Rodgers offered so much value over replacement, in comparison to RBs, because of the uncertainties that plagued the 2nd tier of RBs. It sounds like the experts are trying to better account for risk, by rating QBs higher. It has very little to do with the nature of the game changing, as far as "pass happy" offenses. This is because most offenses are passing more. Therefore, most QBs are scoring more - keeping their value in relation to each other close to the same.

 

[Concept Coop]

... and to me the top6/7 QBs give you an advantage over the other 5 owners in your league.

Go back 15-20 years. Used to be that 25-29 passing TDs would be at or close to the league lead, and there were also enough guys who threw 3500 yds and 21-24 TDs so that there wasn't a ton of separation among fantasy QB1s. I remember when Marc Brunell had a 4000+ yds/19 TD season for the Jaguars, and that was a bona fide QB1 season.

What does it matter that the league leader throws for more TDs, if the rest of the league does too? QBs were more important last year (aside from Vick) because Gore, Jackson, Turner, Bradshaw, Williams, Stewart, Best, et cetera, all dealt with injuries. Gore still offers more of an advantage than Rodgers, in most leagues, when healthy. It is just getting harder and harder for guys like Gore to stay healthy. Because of that, teams are more and more likely to use multiple backs.

More talented RBs get a major boost in value because teams need more and more incentive to give a player 20 touches a game.

Like others have said - the gap between top 5-7 RBs and the rest of the field is growing.

 

[ATC1]

With all the RBBC teams I would think that would make the RBS getting the vast majority of the work for their team would be more important. However, with that being said I feel that with the questions sounding injury for the 2nd tier RBs owners picking may want the stud who they know will start every game and produce at a high level. They don't want to take an injury risk in the 1st round.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

RB is becoming a dead position and to me the top6/7 QBs give you an advantage over the other 5 owners in your league.

Forgive me if I missed your sarcasm.But the RB position is far from dead. It is hands down the most important position, as the NFL shies away from every down backs. Every starting QB and most starting WRs are every down players. Therefore, the RB position has an extra variable - extra means to create separation in value. Aaron Rodgers offered so much value over replacement, in comparison to RBs, because of the uncertainties that plagued the 2nd tier of RBs. It sounds like the experts are trying to better account for risk, by rating QBs higher. It has very little to do with the nature of the game changing, as far as "pass happy" offenses. This is because most offenses are passing more. Therefore, most QBs are scoring more - keeping their value in relation to each other close to the same.

Just feels like after the top 3/4 guys this year. QB/WR offers the best player.Im not burning mid to late first rounders on Gore/MJD/Sjax etc. Id rather have a Stud WR or QB and then take my chances on 3rd/4th round RBs.

 

[Concept Coop]

RB is becoming a dead position and to me the top6/7 QBs give you an advantage over the other 5 owners in your league.

Forgive me if I missed your sarcasm.But the RB position is far from dead. It is hands down the most important position, as the NFL shies away from every down backs. Every starting QB and most starting WRs are every down players. Therefore, the RB position has an extra variable - extra means to create separation in value. Aaron Rodgers offered so much value over replacement, in comparison to RBs, because of the uncertainties that plagued the 2nd tier of RBs. It sounds like the experts are trying to better account for risk, by rating QBs higher. It has very little to do with the nature of the game changing, as far as "pass happy" offenses. This is because most offenses are passing more. Therefore, most QBs are scoring more - keeping their value in relation to each other close to the same.

Just feels like after the top 3/4 guys this year. QB/WR offers the best player.Im not burning mid to late first rounders on Gore/MJD/Sjax etc. Id rather have a Stud WR or QB and then take my chances on 3rd/4th round RBs.

That makes sense. I am one to take the gamble, but it seems the experts are thinking along the same lines as you.

 

[Doug B]

What does it matter that the league leader throws for more TDs, if the rest of the league does too?

I am simply saying two things:1) The ppg spread between the #1 FF QB and, say, the #12 guy is a lot more now than it was in the early- to mid-90s. Didn't put pencil to paper to derive stats about that ... it's just an impression I have.2) Among 2011 QBs, there is a steep drop-off in value after the fifth or sixth QB taken. That drop-off either didn't exist or was a lot less steep in the early- to mid-90s.And these factors work in conjunction with the shrinking of the elite RB tier.

 

[Concept Coop]

What does it matter that the league leader throws for more TDs, if the rest of the league does too?

I am simply saying two things:1) The ppg spread between the #1 FF QB and, say, the #12 guy is a lot more now than it was in the early- to mid-90s. Didn't put pencil to paper to derive stats about that ... it's just an impression I have.2) Among 2011 QBs, there is a steep drop-off in value after the fifth or sixth QB taken. That drop-off either didn't exist or was a lot less steep in the early- to mid-90s.And these factors work in conjunction with the shrinking of the elite RB tier.

I don't know how accurate your statments are. But, even if we took it as fact, I would be surprised if the gap between the top 5-6RB and the field hasn't grown MUCH more than the gap between the top 5-6QB and the field.

 

[Chaka]

Normally I am an advocate of taking a QB early but this year there seem to be about 8 QBs who will vie for the top spot and the next tier is huge.

This feels like a year to wait.

 

[Warhogs]

I am mostly repeating what was said above but there are fewer full time RB that are getting all the carries these days. I believe this makes the top 5 or so stud RB even more valuable then in the past but after that there is a much larger group of similar RB that can be had later. Most leagues I play in also tend to have QB outscore all but the most elite RB so the QBs running the high scoring offenses become very attractive after the true stud RB are gone. I then then you start getting into a smattering of all positions after that.

 

[Doug B]

I don't know how accurate your statments are. But, even if we took it as fact, I would be surprised if the gap between the top 5-6RB and the field hasn't grown MUCH more than the gap between the top 5-6QB and the field.

... yes, you're making my point for me. We don't disagree. That's what I meant by "shrinking elite RB tier".The result, IMHO, is that drafters in the back half of the first round aren't reaching for the 8th or 9th RB, because the 15th or 16th RB could be just as good. QBs and elite WRs are filling the late-first-round gap where the sub-elite RBs are vacating.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't know how accurate your statments are. But, even if we took it as fact, I would be surprised if the gap between the top 5-6RB and the field hasn't grown MUCH more than the gap between the top 5-6QB and the field.

... yes, you're making my point for me. We don't disagree. That's what I meant by "shrinking elite RB tier".The result, IMHO, is that drafters in the back half of the first round aren't reaching for the 8th or 9th RB, because the 15th or 16th RB could be just as good. QBs and elite WRs are filling the late-first-round gap where the sub-elite RBs are vacating.

I'm not making your point. You think QBs are rising due to their performance. I think they are rising due to the shortcomings of the RBs.

 

[Doug B]

I'm not making your point. You think QBs are rising due to their performance. I think they are rising due to the shortcomings of the RBs.

I think it's both. To be clear, I am taking a long-range view, comparing today's elite QB stats with those from about 1991-96 ... thinking back to when the "RBs early and often" draft strategy first became prominent (it wasn't always).

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm not making your point. You think QBs are rising due to their performance. I think they are rising due to the shortcomings of the RBs.

I think it's both. To be clear, I am taking a long-range view, comparing today's elite QB stats with those from about 1991-96 ... thinking back to when the "RBs early and often" draft strategy first became prominent (it wasn't always).

Fair enough.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

... and to me the top6/7 QBs give you an advantage over the other 5 owners in your league.

Go back 15-20 years. Used to be that 25-29 passing TDs would be at or close to the league lead, and there were also enough guys who threw 3500 yds and 21-24 TDs so that there wasn't a ton of separation among fantasy QB1s. I remember when Marc Brunell had a 4000+ yds/19 TD season for the Jaguars, and that was a bona fide QB1 season.

I don't see how the rising numbers of QBs beyond the elite tier makes QBs more valuable. If anything it makes them less valuable.The elite QBs aren't really putting up much better stats than they were 10 years ago. 10 years ago QB1 was around 4300/30 on a pretty consistent basis. It's better than that now, but not *much* better.

Meanwhile, it used to be that 4000/19 made you a top 5 QB. Now 4000/30, which people pretty much expect Eli Manning to get with no problem, makes him QB10-QB12.

If the top QBs are still scoring roughly the same and the #10 QB is putting up better numbers than he used to, how does that increase the value of the top QBs?

Here's the difference between QB2 and QB12 by season. I'm using QB2 to account for outliers like we've seen in some of the record breaking seasons:

2000: 140

2001: 95

2002: 70

2003: 50

2004: 130

2005: 45

2006: 80

2007: 85

2008: 70

2009: 70

2010: 75

As you can see, the spread in points from the top to the bottom tier of starters has not increased at all. If anything, it's shrunk. Additionally, the further you go down the list (IE QB2 to QB20, etc) the more this pattern continues even more strongly. Even further, if I don't pull out the outliers and go QB1 to QB12 instead, the last two years are WELL below the average spread of QB1 to QB12 in previous years, almost horrifically so.

From 2000 to 2008, the average point spread from QB1 to QB12 was 122.5

In 2009 it was 80

In 2010 it was 85

If anything, the data skews to the exact opposite of what some people are claiming. The spread in points among QBs is *tighter* than ever before, not wider. That should make QBs less valuable, not more valuable.

 

[Rick James]

Normally I am an advocate of taking a QB early but this year there seem to be about 8 QBs who will vie for the top spot and the next tier is huge.This feels like a year to wait.

Agreed, agreed, agreed.VickRodgersBradyManningBreesRiversRomoSchaubThat's 8 daggum QBs. 75% of your standard 12-team league is going to have a chance at an elite QB. I see no reason taking a QB in the 1st or 2nd when I can get Brady in the 3rd, Rivers/Brees in the 3rd/4th, or Romo/Schaub in the 5th.Then there's guys like Matt Ryan and Big Ben who could easily be QB1s this year, going in the 6th-7th.QB is so deep this year it's crazy.

 

[Chaka]

Normally I am an advocate of taking a QB early but this year there seem to be about 8 QBs who will vie for the top spot and the next tier is huge.This feels like a year to wait.

Agreed, agreed, agreed.VickRodgersBradyManningBreesRiversRomoSchaubThat's 8 daggum QBs. 75% of your standard 12-team league is going to have a chance at an elite QB. I see no reason taking a QB in the 1st or 2nd when I can get Brady in the 3rd, Rivers/Brees in the 3rd/4th, or Romo/Schaub in the 5th.Then there's guys like Matt Ryan and Big Ben who could easily be QB1s this year, going in the 6th-7th.QB is so deep this year it's crazy.

I would swap Schaub for Big Ben but, Schaub was top notch two years ago so, who knows? I think this is a good year to wait for a QB even in QB flex leagues.

 

[jon_mx]

I don't think much haas changed, I just think more people are challenging the RB-RB strategy that has dominated the fantasy football world for decades. But for me, I would look at WR in the late part of Round 1 unless Vick is there.

 

[fsufan]

it is still about value

 

[saintsfan1977]

I don't think much haas changed, I just think more people are challenging the RB-RB strategy that has dominated the fantasy football world for decades. But for me, I would look at WR in the late part of Round 1 unless Vick is there.

I have #9 in a 10 team league. We get to keep 1 player but whatever round you drafted/kept him in last year, becomes this years previous round. I drafted H.Nicks in the 4th last year and now he is my 3.09 pick. I plan on grabbing A.Johnson or CJ at 1.09, then coming back at RB with 2.02. I am hoping McCoy is there. If not I just might reach having to wait 18 picks for RB.As far as QB goes I always draft one in the 5th round because I want Eli or Big Ben while everyone crams to get Rodgers, Brees, Manning in teh 2nd and 3rd.The projected points form No1 to No 10 is about 98 FF points. 6 FF points per week. I never take a QB early. Very few teams win their league drafting a QB in the 1st round.

 

[LawFitz]

People are finally beginning to realize that a stud QB is more rare and valuable than previously thought. Especially when faced with a comparison to an RBBC, high mileage or one-hit RB.

Personally, I've always favored studs at QB over the years to tier II RBs.

 

[Rick James]

People are finally beginning to realize that a stud QB is more rare and valuable than previously thought. Especially when faced with a comparison to an RBBC, high mileage or one-hit RB.

Personally, I've always favored studs at QB over the years to tier II RBs.

This doesn't make sense.