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On The Clock: Redraft Pick 1.04 (1 Viewer)

At pick 1.04, I take:

  • RB David Johnson

    Votes: 63 71.6%
  • RB Alvin Kamara

    Votes: 3 3.4%
  • WR Antonio Brown

    Votes: 15 17.0%
  • RB Saquan Barkley

    Votes: 7 8.0%
  • Other: Please list in thread

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    88

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I will run this as a new series of threads for some redraft discussion. We will jump around through various parts of the draft and look at players in that tier that should be available.I'll use ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp to present some on the clock scenarios with polls as to who you would take. I am going to base this on ppr leagues because at this point I think they are the most popular but those of you in standard leagues feel free to vote and discuss what you would do "differently" in standard leagues.

I strongly encourage people to not just vote in the poll but discuss their choices.

For the first "OTC" thread we will start in Round 1 (where you can't win your draft, but you can lose it - or so they say).

You show up on draft day and draw the 4 slot, The draft starts off with Todd Gurley going at pick 1, Le'Veon Bell at pick 2, and Ezekiel Elliot at pick 3....

Who do you take with pick 4?

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I'll start off and say I would take David Johnson. He has some risk in that there is a new coaching staff in town and Bradford/Rosen is most likely a downgrade from 2015/2016 Carson Palmer - but I think is floor is extremely high and we've seen his ceiling before.

The Cardinals declining defense should not hurt DJ as he's a pass catching machine so the game-script will still be a positive for him if the team falls behind.

 

Bronco Billy

Footballguy
IMO only, I believe the pick is DJ and it is a slam dunk.

I rule out Kamara because I don’t believe his production last year is sustainable, even with the advantage he’ll have in the first 4 games.  That’s not to say he won’t be first round worthy, just that he doesn’t rise to the top of this list.

I rule out Barkley because he’s a rookie and therefore is completely unknown as far as NFL performance.  A rookie should never be selected this high no matter how great he looks.  The risk of lack of skill transfer and/or workload is just too unknown.  I said the same thing about Elliott when he was a rookie and was wrong, but the principle is still there despite that - the unknowns are just too high to justify the risk.

That takes it down to Brown and Johnson.  Bell cow RB scarcity and QB reliance for production makes the Johnson pick easy.  You’ll be able to get a very strong WR in Rd 2 if you pick Johnson 1.04, but you aren’t going to get the same level of RB there if you go Brown.  Plus, both guys have potential questions at QB - AZ has Bradford and/or a rookie, but Johnson gets his touches either way.  If Roethlisberger goes down to injury, there is no way Brown’s production doesn’t get diminished a significant amount.  Roethlisberger is 36 and hasn’t played 16 games since 2014.  

Yeah, there is the injury history on Johnson, but word is he’s healthy for the start of the season and ready to go.  I’ll bet against a second season ending injury happening again to him.

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Yeah, there is the injury history on Johnson, but word is he’s healthy for the start of the season and ready to go.  I’ll bet against a second season ending injury happening again to him.
I truly don't think his injury is really worth mentioning since it was a forearm and should be fully healed.

The rest of your analysis was spot on imo - I may consider Barkley, however to be honest, but in the end I'd go the more "conservative" route and take DJ. It's not like he doesn't have a ceiling that's comparable to Barkley.

 

Interseptopus

Footballguy
I truly don't think his injury is really worth mentioning since it was a forearm and should be fully healed.

The rest of your analysis was spot on imo - I may consider Barkley, however to be honest, but in the end I'd go the more "conservative" route and take DJ. It's not like he doesn't have a ceiling that's comparable to Barkley.
I agree with the above. I am between Barkley and DJ. I chose Barkley here in voting just because I like his situation/offense better than DJ's. Or maybe that means that DJ will get the ball more than Barkley. Who knows. You're right, DJ's ceiling is higher than Barkley's in redraft IMO. I guess I'm more concerned about a slump from going through a regime change. The injury is zero concern and anyone who mentions it as a potential problem needs to google "Do you need a wrist to run." Just be careful because a hand might come out from the computer and slap you across the face. 

This is definitely a tough call for me, and as I type this I wish I could change my vote to DJ. I argued against this in a different thread, saying I would take Barkley over DJ. My position on this debate is a fluid one. I guess I would want to own Barkley but the safe bet here is to take DJ. 

 

Ignoratio Elenchi

Footballguy
I agree with the above. I am between Barkley and DJ. I chose Barkley here in voting just because I like his situation/offense better than DJ's. Or maybe that means that DJ will get the ball more than Barkley. Who knows. You're right, DJ's ceiling is higher than Barkley's in redraft IMO. I guess I'm more concerned about a slump from going through a regime change. The injury is zero concern and anyone who mentions it as a potential problem needs to google "Do you need a wrist to run." Just be careful because a hand might come out from the computer and slap you across the face. 

This is definitely a tough call for me, and as I type this I wish I could change my vote to DJ. I argued against this in a different thread, saying I would take Barkley over DJ. My position on this debate is a fluid one. I guess I would want to own Barkley but the safe bet here is to take DJ. 
This all makes sense.  To me the tiebreaker is we've seen David Johnson do it.  If you take Barkley in redraft this year, what are you hoping for in a dream scenario?  2000+ yards and 20+ TDs?  I think Barkley could do that.  I know DJ can do that because he just did in his last season.  

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I agree with what has been stated. Just wanted to say great thread idea. Looking forward to the talk on pick 1.8 ;)  
I plan to jump around a bit (so we can discuss all types of players) but I'll keep 1.08 in mind and try not to wait too long on getting to that.

Although I voted for DJ, I honestly didn't think he'd be the overwhelming choice.

 

Elevencents

Footballguy
Surprisingly enough I am prob one of the biggest Kamara fans (have him as a late keeper) but as was mentioned there is just no way he sustains the production he did last year. However, he did what he did with not that many touches so I think his touches will increase and his efficiency will take a hit all leading to very comparable numbers. But DJ has shown that he will literally take the team on his shoulders and run everyone else over. 

I certainly would not be upset with Kamara here, or AB, but gun to head I go DJ just because of the drop off at RB after the 1st round. 

 

Keith1

Footballguy
I plan to jump around a bit (so we can discuss all types of players) but I'll keep 1.08 in mind and try not to wait too long on getting to that.

Although I voted for DJ, I honestly didn't think he'd be the overwhelming choice.
Doc Ock-- hope you do one for for pick 1.01. Would love to hear everyone's thoughts on the choice between Gurley, Bell and Zeke. As for pick 1.04, I know he is a rookie and the hype has been over the top, but I really do think Barkley is a once-a-decade talent, and therefore I would take him before DJ or Kamara or Brown. 

 

Steeler

Footballguy
 If Roethlisberger goes down to injury, there is no way Brown’s production doesn’t get diminished a significant amount.  Roethlisberger is 36 and hasn’t played 16 games since 2014. 
Using this as a springboard to further the discussion and provide a contrarian view - I would select Antonio Brown.  What you said about Ben missing some games over the years and having an affect on AB just hasn't happened.  Since 2013 the lowest number of receptions in a season is 101, the lowest yardage is 1284, the lowest number of TDs is 8, and the lowest number of targets is 154!  Yes, I cherry picked his lowest total in each category from the last 5 years and that "stat line" is still impressive. Check out his full stats: https://www.rotowire.com/football/player.php?id=6454

He's been so consistent over the last 5 years with massive production - I'll take that "certainty" and be happy to start the draft with a "zero RB" strategy.

 

Interseptopus

Footballguy
This all makes sense.  To me the tiebreaker is we've seen David Johnson do it.  If you take Barkley in redraft this year, what are you hoping for in a dream scenario?  2000+ yards and 20+ TDs?  I think Barkley could do that.  know DJ can do that because he just did in his last season.  
Yes good point

 

Keith1

Footballguy
 I know DJ can do that because he just did in his last season.  
True--but all things are not equal, as the 2016 version of the Cardinals was quite different than this year's version. Not just in terms of personnel (on both sides of the ball) but coaching as well. Who knows if the new staff will feed DJ like Arians did. 

 

Bronco Billy

Footballguy
Using this as a springboard to further the discussion and provide a contrarian view - I would select Antonio Brown.  What you said about Ben missing some games over the years and having an affect on AB just hasn't happened.  Since 2013 the lowest number of receptions in a season is 101, the lowest yardage is 1284, the lowest number of TDs is 8, and the lowest number of targets is 154!  Yes, I cherry picked his lowest total in each category from the last 5 years and that "stat line" is still impressive. Check out his full stats: https://www.rotowire.com/football/player.php?id=6454

He's been so consistent over the last 5 years with massive production - I'll take that "certainty" and be happy to start the draft with a "zero RB" strategy.


The games Brown has played and Roethlisberger has missed in the past 3 seasons:

7 catches 107 yds 0 TDs

5 catches 42 yds 0 TDs

3 catches 45 yds 0 TDs

3 catches 24 yds 0 TDs

6 catches 124 yds 0 TDs

That’s less than 5 catches a game at less than 70 yds per game with exactly 0 TDs.  Please don’t try to sell that Roethlisberger not playing doesn’t negatively impact Brown, because even though the sample size is small it is readily apparent that it does.  PIT simply does not have very good backup QBs.  Their best bet for this year is a rookie who has to unlearn the bad habits of playing in an air raid system in college.

That you defend your favorite team is commendable, but please let’s be realistic.

.

 
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Ignoratio Elenchi

Footballguy
True--but all things are not equal, as the 2016 version of the Cardinals was quite different than this year's version. Not just in terms of personnel (on both sides of the ball) but coaching as well. Who knows if the new staff will feed DJ like Arians did. 
Sure, you never know, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where any coaching staff isn't feeding David Johnson the ball.  I think if we're going down that road, it's easier to make the case that Barkley will have to share touches with Engram, OBJ, etc.  Like I said, in your wildest dreams what could you expect out of Barkley this season?  In 2016 DJ put up over 2100 yards from scrimmage and 20 TDs which is kind of historically rare, and looking at that list he did it at a younger age and with fewer touches than most.  I'm certainly not predicting he'll repeat those ridiculous numbers but even with significant regression to the mean he's still likely a top 5 fantasy RB.  

 

Steeler

Footballguy
That you defend your favorite team is commendable, but please let’s be realistic


I'm not defending my favorite team - I'm providing some reasons for AB at this point in the draft and simply used your post as a jumping off point (I wasn't trying to call you out).

Plus, my point was that ABs end of year numbers haven't been affected by the fact that Ben "hasn’t played 16 games since 2014".  Of course his game to game numbers are down with out Ben just like nearly every other WR would be without their #1 QB.  Ben has missed 5 games in three years and ABs numbers are still massive - are you predicting a season ending injury to Ben?  If Ben plays 14 or 15 games this year (similar to his 3 year trend) then ABs numbers should be similar as well.

 
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ZWK

Footballguy
This comes down to DJ vs. AB for me. I see both of them and Zeke as very close together. Johnson has the most risk: he's had 1 big year, is coming off an injury, and is returning to a much-changed offense. Elliott has the lowest mainline projection of the three, since he doesn't catch as many passes (and his scoring has been lower than the others in recent years). Brown has been putting up huge numbers year after year but he has the least positional scarcity - there are a lot more good WR options available in the mid rounds compared with RB options. Very close to a toss-up; I think I'd take them DJ > AB > EE.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I guess since DJ seems to have won this poll pretty easily, a natural follow-up question is: does anyone take DJ in the top 3, and if so who do you drop down to #4?
That is a tougher question. IMO, there are 4 players clearly above the rest. If you told me any of them ended up with 2000 yards and 20 TDs, I wouldn't be surprised. Chances are one will get hurt and totally bust, one will be around RB8-12 and the other 2 will battle for the RB1 overall spot. I can't split the difference really. Bell and DJ get bumps in PPR. 

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I guess since DJ seems to have won this poll pretty easily, a natural follow-up question is: does anyone take DJ in the top 3, and if so who do you drop down to #4?
I think I would take DJ over Elliot at 3 put the ADP data had Elliot at 1.03 so for the purpose of this poll I considered him gone.

 

Efritch4

Footballguy
DJ is the guy to take at 4 assuming Gurley, L. Bell, and Zeke go 1-2-3...but what IF L. Bell continues to hold out??? Could he be the guy to take at 4??

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Efritch4 said:
DJ is the guy to take at 4 assuming Gurley, L. Bell, and Zeke go 1-2-3...but what IF L. Bell continues to hold out??? Could he be the guy to take at 4??
If he’s there at 4 it’s a no-brainer imo - assuming it’s like last year and he’s back before week 1 and everything indicates that’s the case. He may start a little slow but he’s arguably the best player in ppr leagues.

 

DawnBTVS

Footballguy
I'd take David Johnson over Zeke (and maybe even Gurley) running, scrabbling over the bodies in front of me, and diving for the end zone pylon all day, every day. Johnson's rushing line alone in 2016 was insane going for over 1,200 with 16 TD then you tack on 80 catches and 800+ receiving? That's legit prime 2000/2001 Marshall Faulk territory.

If he comes close to similar numbers... 4th pick is a bargain.

 

Mystery Achiever

Footballguy
At 4, I'd happily grab the last of the top 4 RBs, in this case Johnson            though I'd hope someone would take him earlier and leave me Elliott.

 

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