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Redraft '24 - The BIG One (1 Viewer)

I'm going to post a Draft from my 25 year 3-man keeper Redraft league this week
PPR with 1.5 for Tight Ends...QB-2 RBs- 3WRs, TE, Flex and of course Def/S and PK

-Lot of Keepers on rosters already across 10 teams including JJ, Chase and ARSB in the 1st, Higgins, Pickens, Deebo, Slim Reaper, London, Waddle, Diggs, Olave, Metcalf and Godwin
There's others but that's the main ones that make the 2nd and 3rd rounds feels like the 5th and 6th especially at Wide Receiver

-I have Kupp, Pacheco and Kirk rolling into the Draft, we have the option to keep our 6th Round pick but must declare in the 6th round if we take one of our 3 keepers off the board.

I want thank @travdogg and @BobbyLayne between the two of them in recent weeks have forced me to re-examine my game plan and especially Bobby pointing out the youth movement and not just falling back all the time on the seasoned vet for roster depth. We'll see how that shakes out.

CMC, Hall, Lamb ad Hill went 1-2-3-4 leaving me with a hard choice that many find easy. I like Barkley and Henry a lot so I knew when I passed with all the WRs on rosters, likely wasn't going to be there for me in the 2nd Round. I thought about AJBrown long and hard here because the drop off at WR is massive and so many are on rosters. I had hoped that Lamb or Hill would fall to me at 5. I had Bijan last season along with Hall, Gibbs and Pacheco so I've done the load up at RB thing and I was chasing points at Wide Receiver all season, still 2nd highest points total last season.

1.05 Bijan Robinson - Went young and hoping for an increase in load, also just more scoring chances with Cousins at QB or Penix if he has to come off the bench, liked what I saw early in preseason before they shut Penix down. You would think I learned my lesson after last season and perhaps Gibbs was the right play here BUT as you'll see later I'm going to get a share of the Lions offense one way or the other. MoP Jr was also screaming in my ear to take Bijan, said I was a fool to pass on him

AJB and Barkley go 6-7 right after I pick, Gibbs next, Taylor and Nacua finish off the 1st round. Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry(heart break), Achane, G.Wilson and DJ Moore come off before it makes it back around to me. I need a WR to pair with Kupp(keeper) and my intention at this point in the Draft is slide Kirk into the Flex slot on my roster. With Bijan and Pacheco already in house, needed a Wide Receiver and was already regretting not taking AJBrown, I could have paired him with Josh Jacobs who was one of the last top tier RBs on my board early in this draft.

2.06 Nico Collins - I'm bullish on Nico, watched him play many times last year and very impressed with his size mixed with decent speed. 6-4 and like 230, looks like all muscle and just a big dude to try and bring down after the catch, difficult for DBs to get him on the ground. I have Nico on the intermediate and longer routes, Diggs more underneath 10-15 yd out stuff, Dell will be running fly patterns up the sidelines, take all that however you want but Nico meets the eye test and I would have preferred him Rd 3.

-BTW: I make several mistakes in this draft, one of the reasons I'm sharing it is I have another big one on the night before the season opener and want to make some adjustments for the next one.
I passed on DeVante Adams and I also passed on Sam La Porta at Tight End, I feel several folks would have grabbed them ahead of Nico. Both Harrison and Nabers the rookie WRs will go in the next 7-8 picks before it rolls back to me, I prefer Nico in '24 over both of them. Adams went at the 3.04 or else I would have taken him to make a trio of starters.

Kamara, Cook and Mike Evans went before I would select again, no big tears shed on a lot of these selections

3.05 Travis Kelce - I thought I was on a youth kick taking younger guys over the veterans but it just felt like the drop off at Tight End was coming, the guy after me would have taken Kelce as I would learn from the groan he made when I picked. It did seem like he might have slowed down just a smidge last year, did miss a couple game and his targets dropped, KC in general was a bit of a plodding offense at times last season but I have a lot of faith in Reid and Mahomes. Normally I don't like to take an agin future Hall of Fam type who turns 35 1st week of October, could have just had La Porta the round before.

-McBride, Pittman, Swift, Mahomes(1st QB I think), Dell(too high IMHO), A.Jones, Z.White, B.Aiyuk(I thought about him), McLaurin(I liked him), Joe Mixon and now I'm on the clock.

4.06 Rashee Rice - Can I get another KC Chief please. The drop off at WR seemed steep to me and unfortunately there wouldn't be another WR off the board until the 5.10, many Tight Ends and top tier QBs that I chose to pass on here will be scooped up...could have had Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, those guys were just sitting here. I'm asking Rashee Rice to be my WR3, I had him last season and the 2nd Half he started to come on his rookie year, I expect him to be better this season. He's been flying up the draft boards.

Bijan-Pacheco-Nico-Kupp-Rice-Kirk-Kelce was what I was rolling with into the 5th round and we have a limit of 5 at RB, 6 at WR, 2 TE, kinda limited on certain things but I wanted to make sure I could get a decent prospect in the 6th round. I knew I was going to need a 3rd RB pretty quick as I only had a few names left of guys that I felt could make a difference.

5.05 David Montgomery - Likely to see less touches per game even when healthy. That said he is a threat for 75/TD most weeks and could easily hit double digits again. Almost 240 touches, 1,100+ yards 13 TDs a year ago. Missed 3 full weeks, only caught 16 balls, not what he's on the team for. Any time Detroit has a lead he will see more touches helping run the clock out in the 2nd Half. RB3 on my roster, passed on CJ Stroud, that was perhaps a bad move on my part.

6.06 (Keeper Round) Keon Coleman - Brian Thomas went off the board at 6.05 or else I woulda snagged him. Brock Bowers was an option. I'm not expecting Coleman to be 1,000 yd WR as a rookie, just think he will settle into the lead Wide Receiver spot at some point, maybe the 2nd Half of the season. 6-4/215+ he's a big target and could go something like 800 yds and 8 TDs with big upside going into '25, in some ways he's not much better than Kirk at the moment but I've seen Kirk for a while now and he caps out and has a ceiling. We don't know what Coleman is just yet, was willing to gamble and see where it leads. I can only take 1 more WR

7.05 Tony Pollard - RB4 that offers a little more dual threat vs Monty and can be rolled out in Flex spots vs some opponents. I was also high on Ekeler over the summer but then I watched how Washington is going to use him in the preseason, mostly 3rd down back and pass situations. I feel Pollard will split carries at times but also will be involved in the passing game. Half the load in Tennessee might be worth a lot more than 3rd down duties in Washington so went with Pollard. Also feel like the combo of Monty and Pollard gives me some protection at RB, with those 4 RBs I can roll the dice on whoever fills the last spot on my bench.
 
At this point all the top QBs are off the board including Burrow, Murray(not a fan) and then Dak Prescott went at 8.05, ARich and Jordan love went in the 7th, a couple guys were already grabbing their 2nd QB so it was time for me to make a move. Both Daniels and Caleb Williams were on the board when I did this

8.06 Tua Tags - We can argue whether he's a good starting QB or not but you cannot look away from his 4,600/30TDs last season. Miami has speed everywhere and I think he will hiccup 250/2TD most weeks and some weeks it could be more. Schedule is not that difficult especially early in the season. You won't find Baltimore or KC on this schedule, Philly and Detroit are not there either. At some level Miami should look like the favorite against teams like Las Vegas and Arizona, Indy and New England, Tennessee and Jacksonville, not to mention the Jets and Bills, sure division rivals and they will be close games but Miami has almost as much if not more talent in a lot of their skill positions and also a much better Secondary than they are being billed as, Miami might get some short fields to set up on this year. As about the last person to take a QB, I just wanted to pair him with Goff in Detroit, that had been my plan all along but you will see what happens in the 9th

9.05 Jameson Williams - MoP Jr was with me the whole time and he definitely influenced many of these picks. I wanted to take Goff here. My son assured me that Williams would be coming off the board soon and that we wanted him as our WR5/6 with some big upside if things break right. I do not have the same optimistic outlook that he does but several made that same groan that I heard when I selected Kelce in the 3rd. I am now completely full at WR and cannot take another one the rest of the way...I wanted to make a Tua-Goff combo at QB

Goff went at the 10.05(ouch)

10.06 Dalton Schultz - I needed a 2nd Tight End and missed out on Ferguson, even thought about Kincaid in the 4th Rd to double up with Kelce and flex one of them but didn't do that. Schultz had decent numbers a year ago and there are too many mouths to feed but also should be wide open all the time, easily can hit or surpass his numbers. 600/6TDs, Bye week filler, seems fair.

11.05 Caleb Williams - This is another Jr pick since I was pretty bent about missing Goff for Williams at WR. Just pure gambling that he can do something his rookie season, doubt we see a CJ Stroud coming out party in '24. That said, he has a lot of weapons with with to work. I don't think his completion percentage will be super high Year 1 but he's going to have some weeks with production. Hopefully he starts heating up after the first few games as he gets his sea legs under him

12.06 SF 49ers - Ravens and Jets had come off the board and my roster is almost full except for 1 more RB and we must carry 2 defenses and 2 kickers

13.05 Jaylen Wright - RB5 end of the bench, think he will see more action than folks realize his rookie season.
14.05 Koo
15.06 Detroit Lions
16.05 Daniel Carlson

In hindsight I like to see what I could have or should have done

AJBrown-Jacobs-B.Aiyuk-D.Kincaid-CJStroud-Bowers(keeper)-Pollard-Ford-Ferguson-Cousins/Caleb(either way)
Could have ended my WR bench with something like Mike Williams for the Jets, Curtis Samuel, something like that would have been there late

QB- Tua and Caleb...risky and I should have just grabbed Cousins or Stafford
RB - Bijan, Pacheco(keeper), Monty - Pollard - Jaylen Wright, I kinda like this
WR - Kupp(keeper), Nico, Rice, Kirk - Williams and Keon Coleman(new keeper) Not my best group I've ever assembled
TE - Kelce and Schultz

vs
QB - CJStroud and anyone
RB - Jacobs, Pacheco, Pollard and Ford, some might like that one better
WR - AJBrown, Kupp, Aiyuk, Kirk, Samuel and M.Williams
TE - Kincaid and Bowers(new keeper)

I definitely could go back and see some places where I might want to go in a different direction this week
 
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Really great job here, agree with quite a bit of it...I'll bring up some areas where I have a different POV, not necessarily a disagreement.

Breece: Got him for cheap last year. And you're correct insofar as he being the only thing that came close to working on that offense in 2023. but there were also yawning stretches of time where he was downright unstartable which is odd to say about a player that finished RB2 in most formats. With Rodgers, the offense should be more diverse, but I tend to think that only helps Breece.

Deebo & Kupp: Interestingly, both of these players peaked in 2021. Both have had competition emerge since as targets (Aiyuk/Puca). But quite a bit more bearish on Deebo vs Kupp even though Deebo only 28 vs Kupp being 31 as well as having shown himself to be more durable.

Pacheco: He was drafted as an RB3 last year...so saying he feels primed to underwhelm again seems harsh. While I'm not excited about what you have to pay for him this year...I do feel like the floor here is high enough to justify the pick.

JCook: 4 rushing TD's in 2 seasons is enough to scare me off of any RB1 talk. 69 red zone snaps during that time...just feels like they prefer other options and seek them out. We'll see.

MHJ: This does feel a bit short-sighted...and it probably has as much do with your disinterest in Kyler Murray as well. But Gannon has been an even more devout supporter of Murray than even Kingsbury was and he's the clear WR1 on ARI. I said it in the MHJ thread back in July, but his first 8/150/2 type game explodes him and his floor (save for injury) seems awfully secure.

...and when I look at your Malik write up, I do start to get that you're simply not sold on rookie WR's and their draft value these days which is fair. Garrett Wilson certainly did have high draft stock just two years ago so the landscape for this profile has very much changed in a short period of time. That said, your concerns on Danny Dimes is warranted although the aforementioned GW had worse.

DJ Moore: I've been swimming a bit upstream on this one as I think coming close to 2023 is very much on the table although expecting a 230/3 TD performance in a week probably doesn't happen again. But CHI is going to be throwing the ball ALOT more than they did last year and some targets did exit stage left. And honestly, I think people are still dealing with a bit of Panther Hangover here.

Rashee: One of the dangers of ADP data is that it really doesn't move fast enough. Once it became clear that Rashee was not facing 2024 sanctions, any notion of him being at the same 'value' level as Chris Godwin flew out the window. I'd venture to say if you looked at ADP data now, he'd be in Round 6 with a path to Round 5. In real drafts, he's going in DJ Moore territory.

Njoku: DId alot of study here. Came into the NFL really young (20). Very immature and his first 4 years kind of showed it. Felt at first he wasn't one of Berry/Stefanski's 'guys'. But kept working and is now really a major leader on this team. His playing after his 'burn' injuries of last year is ridiculous and I truly think he's become a centerpiece of this franchise. Still overlooked.
 
As was pointed out to me by MoP Jr...

Nico Collins(CJS) is the WR1 for CJ Stroud who I think highly of. Is that true/false? Some might feel like Diggs will get more targets, remains to be seen
Cooper Kupp(Staff) is the WR1 in Los Angeles, only a new injury IMHO stops him from leading the team in targets. Regardless, he has a competent QB
Rashee Rice(Mahomes) is the WR1 in Kansas City right now, he shares with Kelce but I have both of them
Christian Kirk, sure sure we all love Brian Thomas myself included but will Thomas have more targets than a healthy Kirk in the slot all season? Hmmmm
Ken Coleman(Allen), has Josh Allen chucking it to him and no established WR 1 for a guy 6-4/220 and growing
Jameson Williams(Goff-Det), does play in a pretty potent offense with much emphasis on the run game which sets up the passing game

Kelce(Mahomes), Schultz(CJS), I like my WR and TE to mostly play on teams where the QB is established and thought of as a Top 5-10 NFL starter. I'm sure you can find targets on Carolina and New England but why not take players that have good if not great Quarterbacks if and when you can?
 
Drafted 12 last night per.

At 12, you’re at a disadvantage trying to recoup points that you are behind…and then LaPorta fell to me at 3.12 which allowed me to gain varying amounts of points at te on almost every team in the league

Seemed like the best place for this post
 
Per your Achane - Wright take, I think there’s going to be plenty of times where hill, waddle, achane are lined up at WR with wright at RB

And the speed will be uncontainable
 

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