Osi Umenyiora (1 Viewer)

[PhantomJB]

I'm not getting the FBG DL/DE weekly rankings on this guy. The last 3 weeks he has been really bad, only putting up 2 solos and 5 assists with no sacks, PDs or other big plays.

I realize he has a nice matchup on paper this week vs. PHI who has allowed a ton of sacks lately, but being Top 10 each week and ranked over guys like Robert Mathis who are more consistent (and also on my waiver wire) just puzzle me.

Anyone else had enough of Osi and willing to cut the cord?

 

[John Norton]

I'm not getting the FBG DL/DE weekly rankings on this guy. The last 3 weeks he has been really bad, only putting up 2 solos and 5 assists with no sacks, PDs or other big plays.I realize he has a nice matchup on paper this week vs. PHI who has allowed a ton of sacks lately, but being Top 10 each week and ranked over guys like Robert Mathis who are more consistent (and also on my waiver wire) just puzzle me.Anyone else had enough of Osi and willing to cut the cord?

Historical Stats Defense Season T A FR FF SK Pass Def 2007 40 12 2 5 14 2006 24 7 1 6 2 2005 48 22 2 4 14.5 3 2004 42 16 4 3 7 3 Yes he's only had a couple of big games this year and has pretty much sucked in all the rest but it's hard to believe that he suddenly can't play anymore or that the Giants defense has somehow soured over the last three weeks and will never rebound. I have dropped his projected numbers a little over the past couple of weeks and if he can't produce with this match up will drop them significantly more moving foreword, but I'm not willing to give up on a guy with this much proven ability and history just because he and his team have had a run of poor production. Especially when you consider the scarcity of real top shelf production from the DE position in general this year. In short I feel that his talent and the match up make him likely as anyone to have a strong game this week.

 

[trader jake]

He's clearly not the same player he was two years ago but you can see him progressing. I think he's a buy low in dynasty and a hold in redrafts. He has been very close to big plays the last few games but that's the deal with defensive ends.

 

[PhantomJB]

Thanks for the thoughtful responses thus far. DL is probably the most difficult position to roster in IDP leagues given the huge dropoff after the obvious top 4-5 guys.

Tough to judge just based on performance numbers alone so insight from others that can analyze his overall play is much appreciated.

I had the same issue earlier with Richard Seymour. Picked him up after the Week 1 breakout game (2 sacks, 6 tackles, etc.) and then radio silence for 3-4 straight weeks.

Won't give up on Osi this week, but I do look forward to next week's analysis/re-evaluation after what should be a great matchup with a PHI team that has given up 12 sacks in 3 games.

 

[Super King]

In leagues where you start multiple DL, you have to start him. Don't want to miss the game where he blows up and single handedly wins it for you that week.

 

[lord_helmet]

Before the season I considered him one of the precious few stud DL, but in reality he needs to be benched untill he shows up in the box scores. Just pray he stays hot if he suddenly logs some good numbers.

 

[Gary Davenport]

Before the season I considered him one of the precious few stud DL, but in reality he needs to be benched untill he shows up in the box scores. Just pray he stays hot if he suddenly logs some good numbers.

Problem with that is you're chasing last weeks stats. Say you bench him this week and he notches two sacks, so you start him next week and he gets none...that get him the bench Week 11?He's been disappointing, but unless your league's shallow enough that comparable options are out there there's not much to do but hope that he pulls out of it, and given his history there's ample enough reason to believe that'll happen to justify his FBG ranking in my opinion.

 

[PhantomJB]

Before the season I considered him one of the precious few stud DL, but in reality he needs to be benched untill he shows up in the box scores. Just pray he stays hot if he suddenly logs some good numbers.

Problem with that is you're chasing last weeks stats. Say you bench him this week and he notches two sacks, so you start him next week and he gets none...that get him the bench Week 11?He's been disappointing, but unless your league's shallow enough that comparable options are out there there's not much to do but hope that he pulls out of it, and given his history there's ample enough reason to believe that'll happen to justify his FBG ranking in my opinion.

Let's hope he pulls out of it. I've stood by and watched this week as quality guys like Robert Mathis and Jason Taylor (LB/DL in Yahoo) have been snatched up off the WW. Those guys have no clear edge over Osi talent-wise or situationally so this has become a true test of the "sticking with your studs" philosophy. Main thing I was hoping to determine when starting this thread was whether there was a scheme change/nagging injury/other factor that was obviously causing the statistical underperformance. Since that seems not to be the case, I agree that chasing last week's stats is dangerous, especially given the big play nature of the DE position since you can never seem to predict the breakout games.

 

[lord_helmet]

Before the season I considered him one of the precious few stud DL, but in reality he needs to be benched untill he shows up in the box scores. Just pray he stays hot if he suddenly logs some good numbers.

Problem with that is you're chasing last weeks stats. Say you bench him this week and he notches two sacks, so you start him next week and he gets none...that get him the bench Week 11?He's been disappointing, but unless your league's shallow enough that comparable options are out there there's not much to do but hope that he pulls out of it, and given his history there's ample enough reason to believe that'll happen to justify his FBG ranking in my opinion.

Usually I would agree with most of this, but the dude had fallen off the planet for 6 weeks!

 

[Zoomanji]

Before the season I considered him one of the precious few stud DL, but in reality he needs to be benched untill he shows up in the box scores. Just pray he stays hot if he suddenly logs some good numbers.

Problem with that is you're chasing last weeks stats. Say you bench him this week and he notches two sacks, so you start him next week and he gets none...that get him the bench Week 11?He's been disappointing, but unless your league's shallow enough that comparable options are out there there's not much to do but hope that he pulls out of it, and given his history there's ample enough reason to believe that'll happen to justify his FBG ranking in my opinion.

Usually I would agree with most of this, but the dude had fallen off the planet for 6 weeks!

He'll turn around. He had a TD called back yesterday.

 

[PhantomJB]

Thanks for the thoughtful responses thus far. DL is probably the most difficult position to roster in IDP leagues given the huge dropoff after the obvious top 4-5 guys.

Tough to judge just based on performance numbers alone so insight from others that can analyze his overall play is much appreciated.

I had the same issue earlier with Richard Seymour. Picked him up after the Week 1 breakout game (2 sacks, 6 tackles, etc.) and then radio silence for 3-4 straight weeks.

Won't give up on Osi this week, but I do look forward to next week's analysis/re-evaluation after what should be a great matchup with a PHI team that has given up 12 sacks in 3 games.

Wow. Now I'm more than a little confused. The latest FBG Week 9 DL/DE rankings have him ranked 30, after one of his strongest games to date vs. PHI (3 tackles, sack, FF, TD called backk), while guys like Derrick Harvey crack the Top 10. NYG's Week 9 opponent is SDG, which has allowed 2+ sacks / game.Not exactly sure how to use the IDP projections tool at this point as a guide to making DL decisions. In particular, whether I should play the WW each week with mediocre players who have great matchups or stick w/ higher-quality players and just understand they are inherently high-volatility?

In Osi's specific Week 9 case, how much of the dramatic drop from consistent Top 10 ranking to #30 is matchup vs. talent vs. situation, especiallly coming off a very good game?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thanks for the thoughtful responses thus far. DL is probably the most difficult position to roster in IDP leagues given the huge dropoff after the obvious top 4-5 guys.

Tough to judge just based on performance numbers alone so insight from others that can analyze his overall play is much appreciated.

I had the same issue earlier with Richard Seymour. Picked him up after the Week 1 breakout game (2 sacks, 6 tackles, etc.) and then radio silence for 3-4 straight weeks.

Won't give up on Osi this week, but I do look forward to next week's analysis/re-evaluation after what should be a great matchup with a PHI team that has given up 12 sacks in 3 games.

Wow. Now I'm more than a little confused. The latest FBG Week 9 DL/DE rankings have him ranked 30, after one of his strongest games to date vs. PHI (3 tackles, sack, FF, TD called backk), while guys like Derrick Harvey crack the Top 10. NYG's Week 9 opponent is SDG, which has allowed 2+ sacks / game.Not exactly sure how to use the IDP projections tool at this point as a guide to making DL decisions. In particular, whether I should play the WW each week with mediocre players who have great matchups or stick w/ higher-quality players and just understand they are inherently high-volatility?

In Osi's specific Week 9 case, how much of the dramatic drop from consistent Top 10 ranking to #30 is matchup vs. talent vs. situation, especiallly coming off a very good game?

The Chargers are a middle of the road pass rush matchup. Over the past two weeks, Phillip Rivers has been sacked only once. Umenyiora's current projection is the same as his W8 final projection (3-0-0.8), though he's not currently projected to any fractional peripheral FF/FR/PD stats as he was last week.

Unless you've got a clearly matchup-independent talent (Allen, Suggs, Cole) right now, every lineup decision should at least consider the matchup. You won't regularly decide to start James Hall over Justin Tuck, but it should at least enter your thought process if you're interested in going through the process. This week, I've had PM discussions about whether Stylez White (vs GB) is a better play than Mario Williams (vs IND). I'd argue the answer is yes.

Depending on how close to the paralysis-by-overanalysis line you want to get, any of the following pieces of information are worth considering with a DL decision.

**Talent of your rostered players (baseline and current level of play)

**Pass rush opportunity allowed by the opposing OL/QB

**Weak spot of the opposing OL

**FBG projections

**Expected flow of the game (usual run-pass ratios hold?)

**Whether your rostered player (and surrounding cast) is "hot"

**Recent injuries that could affect DL rotation or the opposing OL

**Gut feel

Subscribers have access to projections (with daily tweaks), pass rush opportunity metrics, recent sack and quarterback hit trends, run-pass ratios, game logs. Use of player participation logs and gamebook play-by-play can help determine which OL areas are the weakest for each team.

 

[PhantomJB]

I hear you on Rivers, but it is true that one of those games was against those sack-masters the KC Chiefs (ranked #31) and the other against Oakland where SD was up 21-10 by halftime and Rivers' total attempts were 5 less than against any other team (8 less if you exclude the KC game)...

Just trying to figure out whether Osi is matchup-independent or not is all. If not, then it implies a different rostering strategy since he can't be counted on week-to-week.

In Mr. Bramel's preseason rankings, he was in the "DL1-A" or "starting caliber tier" (same as Cole, Suggs and Peppers, which are matchup independent)

In Mr. Norton's above quote re: the Wk 8 rankings, "In short I feel that his talent and the match up make him likely as anyone to have a strong game this week." Don't know why the same logic wouldn't apply every week and especially a week after he had a good game.

If his situation has changed and/or he no longer is thought of as highly as before and should be permanently downgraded, since he is such a prominent player a friendly suggestion would be to include a blurb about him on the weekly show or in the IDP upgrade/downgrade column.

Thanks!

P.S. Not trying to be argumentative at all. You guys are phenomenal and I realize this is as much art as science.

 

[Jene Bramel]

This may not be a very satisfying answer .

I don't think Umenyiora is matchup independent, but I'm more likely to play matchups with defensive linemen than most. I think it's very hard to reliably project which defensive end takes most advantage of their opportunities in any given week, so I tend to either (a) try to get studs on my roster, then (b) err on the side of others with the highest weekly upside based on opportunity (and talent).

If I had Umenyiora and 2-3 other guys from the DL10-DL30 pack, I'd probably have Umenyiora in my lineup most weeks. Looking at this week's rankings, there's just no way I'm starting Derrick Harvey, Anthony Hargrove, Ty Warren and the like over a guy like Umenyiora. Jimmy Wilkerson or Greg White against the Packers? Yes. Cliff Avril against Seattle or one of the Seattle ends against Detroit? Pretty tough call. It's an upside and confidence thing for me. I know Umenyiora has 6-0-2 with 2 FF upside. I'm not convinced Darryl Tapp has that, even if his matchup is better.

Umenyiora may have just 11 solos and three sacks, but he leads his team (according to the NFL statkeepers) with eight quarterback hits. Profootballfocus.com has him with 16 quarterback hits and pressures through W7, better than Justin Tuck's combined seven. The solo and sack stat lines for those two players would suggest just the opposite.

Defensive end success is a fickle thing. Umenyiora is unfortunately one of those players (Peppers has been one in the past, too) that might flop against a well above average matchup and explode against a poor one -- and vice versa -- with neither event having 100% to do with how well he may have played.

Just for your further reference, Umenyiora's main competition this week, Marcus McNeill, has allowed four sacks this season according to profootballfocus (none since W4), five quarterback hits and eight pressures (six in the last three weeks). Seems like a better one-on-one matchup that the overall numbers (which have SD as a below average matchup as a unit). Last week's competition, Jason Peters, was dinged, but generally a much tougher matchup within what's been an easier group to beat as a whole.

Put one final way, I think I'd rank Umenyiora much higher than 30 in a "confidence-style" cheatsheet, but I'm not sure I'd be comfortable projecting him over a 3 solo, 1 sack week.

 

[PhantomJB]

This may not be a very satisfying answer .I don't think Umenyiora is matchup independent, but I'm more likely to play matchups with defensive linemen than most. I think it's very hard to reliably project which defensive end takes most advantage of their opportunities in any given week, so I tend to either (a) try to get studs on my roster, then (b) err on the side of others with the highest weekly upside based on opportunity (and talent). If I had Umenyiora and 2-3 other guys from the DL10-DL30 pack, I'd probably have Umenyiora in my lineup most weeks. Looking at this week's rankings, there's just no way I'm starting Derrick Harvey, Anthony Hargrove, Ty Warren and the like over a guy like Umenyiora. Jimmy Wilkerson or Greg White against the Packers? Yes. Cliff Avril against Seattle or one of the Seattle ends against Detroit? Pretty tough call. It's an upside and confidence thing for me. I know Umenyiora has 6-0-2 with 2 FF upside. I'm not convinced Darryl Tapp has that, even if his matchup is better.Umenyiora may have just 11 solos and three sacks, but he leads his team (according to the NFL statkeepers) with eight quarterback hits. Profootballfocus.com has him with 16 quarterback hits and pressures through W7, better than Justin Tuck's combined seven. The solo and sack stat lines for those two players would suggest just the opposite.Defensive end success is a fickle thing. Umenyiora is unfortunately one of those players (Peppers has been one in the past, too) that might flop against a well above average matchup and explode against a poor one -- and vice versa -- with neither event having 100% to do with how well he may have played.Just for your further reference, Umenyiora's main competition this week, Marcus McNeill, has allowed four sacks this season according to profootballfocus (none since W4), five quarterback hits and eight pressures (six in the last three weeks). Seems like a better one-on-one matchup that the overall numbers (which have SD as a below average matchup as a unit). Last week's competition, Jason Peters, was dinged, but generally a much tougher matchup within what's been an easier group to beat as a whole. Put one final way, I think I'd rank Umenyiora much higher than 30 in a "confidence-style" cheatsheet, but I'm not sure I'd be comfortable projecting him over a 3 solo, 1 sack week.

Au contraire, mon frere. Pure gold.Thanks for the thoughtfulness.

 

[BlueDemon]

This may not be a very satisfying answer .I don't think Umenyiora is matchup independent, but I'm more likely to play matchups with defensive linemen than most. I think it's very hard to reliably project which defensive end takes most advantage of their opportunities in any given week, so I tend to either (a) try to get studs on my roster, then (b) err on the side of others with the highest weekly upside based on opportunity (and talent). If I had Umenyiora and 2-3 other guys from the DL10-DL30 pack, I'd probably have Umenyiora in my lineup most weeks. Looking at this week's rankings, there's just no way I'm starting Derrick Harvey, Anthony Hargrove, Ty Warren and the like over a guy like Umenyiora. Jimmy Wilkerson or Greg White against the Packers? Yes. Cliff Avril against Seattle or one of the Seattle ends against Detroit? Pretty tough call. It's an upside and confidence thing for me. I know Umenyiora has 6-0-2 with 2 FF upside. I'm not convinced Darryl Tapp has that, even if his matchup is better.Umenyiora may have just 11 solos and three sacks, but he leads his team (according to the NFL statkeepers) with eight quarterback hits. Profootballfocus.com has him with 16 quarterback hits and pressures through W7, better than Justin Tuck's combined seven. The solo and sack stat lines for those two players would suggest just the opposite.Defensive end success is a fickle thing. Umenyiora is unfortunately one of those players (Peppers has been one in the past, too) that might flop against a well above average matchup and explode against a poor one -- and vice versa -- with neither event having 100% to do with how well he may have played.Just for your further reference, Umenyiora's main competition this week, Marcus McNeill, has allowed four sacks this season according to profootballfocus (none since W4), five quarterback hits and eight pressures (six in the last three weeks). Seems like a better one-on-one matchup that the overall numbers (which have SD as a below average matchup as a unit). Last week's competition, Jason Peters, was dinged, but generally a much tougher matchup within what's been an easier group to beat as a whole. Put one final way, I think I'd rank Umenyiora much higher than 30 in a "confidence-style" cheatsheet, but I'm not sure I'd be comfortable projecting him over a 3 solo, 1 sack week.

 

[BlueDemon]

This may not be a very satisfying answer .I don't think Umenyiora is matchup independent, but I'm more likely to play matchups with defensive linemen than most. I think it's very hard to reliably project which defensive end takes most advantage of their opportunities in any given week, so I tend to either (a) try to get studs on my roster, then (b) err on the side of others with the highest weekly upside based on opportunity (and talent). If I had Umenyiora and 2-3 other guys from the DL10-DL30 pack, I'd probably have Umenyiora in my lineup most weeks. Looking at this week's rankings, there's just no way I'm starting Derrick Harvey, Anthony Hargrove, Ty Warren and the like over a guy like Umenyiora. Jimmy Wilkerson or Greg White against the Packers? Yes. Cliff Avril against Seattle or one of the Seattle ends against Detroit? Pretty tough call. It's an upside and confidence thing for me. I know Umenyiora has 6-0-2 with 2 FF upside. I'm not convinced Darryl Tapp has that, even if his matchup is better.Umenyiora may have just 11 solos and three sacks, but he leads his team (according to the NFL statkeepers) with eight quarterback hits. Profootballfocus.com has him with 16 quarterback hits and pressures through W7, better than Justin Tuck's combined seven. The solo and sack stat lines for those two players would suggest just the opposite.Defensive end success is a fickle thing. Umenyiora is unfortunately one of those players (Peppers has been one in the past, too) that might flop against a well above average matchup and explode against a poor one -- and vice versa -- with neither event having 100% to do with how well he may have played.Just for your further reference, Umenyiora's main competition this week, Marcus McNeill, has allowed four sacks this season according to profootballfocus (none since W4), five quarterback hits and eight pressures (six in the last three weeks). Seems like a better one-on-one matchup that the overall numbers (which have SD as a below average matchup as a unit). Last week's competition, Jason Peters, was dinged, but generally a much tougher matchup within what's been an easier group to beat as a whole. Put one final way, I think I'd rank Umenyiora much higher than 30 in a "confidence-style" cheatsheet, but I'm not sure I'd be comfortable projecting him over a 3 solo, 1 sack week.

I think Hargrove is a good play going against Green Bays line this weekend

 

[Jene Bramel]

I think Hargrove is a good play going against Green Bays line this weekend

Yeah, I shouldn't have included Hargrove with Harvey and Warren. His matchup against Carolina's interior line looks like a strong one. I'd still be leery of using him as my prospective DL1, but he's a strong upside option this week.

 

[BlueDemon]

hargrove had another pretty good game , still may be under the radar. 3 tackles, 1 ff, 2 FR and 1 TD

 

[PhantomJB]

Time to dump this guy.

Thursday night's game was pathetic. Osi spent far more energy yelling at his teammates than going after Broncos' ballcarriers. Granted, Kyle Orton's 3-step drops are tough to pressure, but I saw plenty of tackle opptys missed due to lack of effort.

Last week wasn't much better with 1 asst and a fortunate bounce for a fumble recovery.

The combination of weak Giants' secondary, coming off knee injury and general Giants' malaise on both sides of the ball make me wish I cut the cord on him a long time ago but oh well, guess I'll be playing waiver wire matchups at DL the rest of the year...