Overreact Much? (1 Viewer)

[DoubleG]

Alright, it's already started - drastic over-reaction to one game. One single game.

At first blush, there may be something to glean from last night's Giants/Cowboys tilt - but it may not be what you think it is. Ogletree's owners are grinning ear to ear (or those with early WW priority are suddenly drooling). Wilson owner's are crying in their rookie-laced kool-aid (or are trying to reassure themselves with silly mumblings like "the benching was just a ploy to motivate..."). Well, let's make some sense of what happened, what many THINK it means, and what it ACTUALLY means.

WHAT HAPPENED #1 - Demarco Murray ripped the Giants on the ground

WHAT WE THINK IT MEANS Murray will be a stud. He's healthty and ready to be a stud RB1.

WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS Maybe. The Giants are known for great pass rushing d-lineman. But not so much for stopping the run. In fact they were bottom half last season. That coupled with Murray being a little easily dinged, leads me to want to call Murray a "decent" RB1 - but not a bonafied, sure thing stud. He was used in the passing game too though - and Jones was statless. If you drafted Murray as your RB1, you'll be good - as long as he can stay healthy...but then again you can say that with almost anyone. What it actually means is fairly close to what we thought it meant.

WHAT HAPPENED #2 Ogletree was the #1 receiving option for the Cowboys - and was studly in the process.

WHAT WE THINK IT MEANS Ogletree is the WW stud everone has been waiting for. The M. Colston of 2012. He will save you WR group. He will become the #1 in Dallas.

WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS Ummm...no. It actually means three things. First, and most importantly, the Giants secondary is bad. By bad, I mean awful...putrid...atrocious. Second, before we annoint Ogle's the next...whatever, let's remember that Austin missed visrtually all of preseason and only gotten in a handful of practices. Witten also missed several preseason games due to his spleen injury. So 2 of Dallas' primary receiving options were not near 100% - nor had they gottne much work in in preseason. Third, Og's has been with the Cowboys for a while - and not shown to be this much a factor, either in terms of production or involvement.

What it really means, is that Ogletree will be a solid WR3 with WR2 upside when he sees a favorable matchup (like the Giants next time). He will likely regress to being the 3rd or 4th option in the passing game when Austin & Witten get healthy. While he might be a solid play for the next week or two, while the rest of the WR's heal, keep in mind, teams are going to see what he did Wednesday night, and not let him run free - the way the Giants did.

WHAT HAPPENED #3 David Wilson was basically benched after fumbling on his second carry.

WHAT WE THINK IT MEANS He's a rookie with fumbilitis. A BAD combo for a Coughlin RB - or at least one who wants to touch the ball more than once or twice a game. Wilson is useless in redraft leagues and playing behind 26 year-young Bradshaw, may not be "all that" in dynasty either.

WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS Honestly, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. It's very true that Coughlin (well, most NFL people) doesn't like fumbles. It's also true that Wilson had issues with ball security in college. I DO think Wilson's usefullness in redraft is extremely limited (barring a Bradshaw injury) - but, Bradshaw isn't going to be asked to carry 90% of the load either. Wilson will be "worked in" - once he shows he can hold on to the rock.

The other thing it will likely mean: A. Bradshaw will be 1000 yard rusher, barring injury. He won't get the 276 carries he did in 2010, but should easily get about 240 - and add some receptions in there as well (he is averaging >40 for the last two seasons). A nice RB2 with RB1 upside with a good matchup.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Over-analyzing the overreaction?

 

[ShaHBucks]

Great ####### post. First thought was last year how hype ppl got for Randle Cobb and Devery Henderson after the opener. Olgetree was running against 4th-5th string cb.

For anyone who drafted Wilson just to sail ship after 2 carries that is dumb. Bradshaw does need some relief, there's not too many in the league that can "take" his carries.

I'd also say relax on Bennett as well. He's wildly inconsistent to rely on, and he didn't do anything special until a late td.

 

[Modog814]

Good topic.

Murray had an okay day. I'll preface it by saying I'm not and never was a Murray supporter, but this is clearly a case of the stats not matching what was seen. Murray had 2 good runs, one a long gainer where he broke (more like the Giants missed) tackling him in the backfied twice. Another was when he squeezed through a hole that didn't look to be there. Other than that, I think the Giants held him pretty much in check. That said, I am reconsidering Murray and willing to admit that perhaps I was a little too down on Murray. I still don't think he'll end up in the top 12 and won't be worth the 1st or 2nd round pick that it cost to get him.

Any one that thinks Ogletree is going to be a season savior is probably kidding themselves. Two of the top 3 options for Romo were battling or just coming back from injuries. And the Giants were down to their 5th CB having to play a large portion of the game. This is just a case of Ogletree taking advantage of a hugely favorable matchup. It won't happen often, and he'll drop back down to end your bench or waiver wire fodder as Witten and Austin regain their health.

That was about the worse thing that could have happened to Wilson. Especially this early. He'll be worked back in, but I take this as Coughlin making a point to Wilson to show what will happen if he continues his fumbling ways. It looked like they planned to get Wilson a good amount of touches and I fully expect them to go back to that plan next week.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Murry was really impressive but not when you compare him to Amad Bradshaw's ADP. Glad I bought in to the wait for RB theory.

 

[Khy]

Good topic.Murray had an okay day. I'll preface it by saying I'm not and never was a Murray supporter, but this is clearly a case of the stats not matching what was seen. Murray had 2 good runs, one a long gainer where he broke (more like the Giants missed) tackling him in the backfied twice. Another was when he squeezed through a hole that didn't look to be there. Other than that, I think the Giants held him pretty much in check. That said, I am reconsidering Murray and willing to admit that perhaps I was a little too down on Murray. I still don't think he'll end up in the top 12 and won't be worth the 1st or 2nd round pick that it cost to get him. Any one that thinks Ogletree is going to be a season savior is probably kidding themselves. Two of the top 3 options for Romo were battling or just coming back from injuries. And the Giants were down to their 5th CB having to play a large portion of the game. This is just a case of Ogletree taking advantage of a hugely favorable matchup. It won't happen often, and he'll drop back down to end your bench or waiver wire fodder as Witten and Austin regain their health.That was about the worse thing that could have happened to Wilson. Especially this early. He'll be worked back in, but I take this as Coughlin making a point to Wilson to show what will happen if he continues his fumbling ways. It looked like they planned to get Wilson a good amount of touches and I fully expect them to go back to that plan next week.

Great post, I agree with just about everything you said. Murray indeed really didn't look all that amazing. He had the big 48 yard run, that should have been a loss for 2. Instead when Tuck tried to wrap and spin to bring him down his O-Lineman happened to be standing there and literally held Murray up as he was falling forward which is what started that run. If not for that one run he puts up 20 carries for 83 yards and 4.1ypc. One of his 2 9yard carries was a blatant hold which literally resulted in JPP jumping up in the air and screaming at the ref after Tyron Smith actually wrapped his entire arm around JPP's neck to stop him from getting to Murray. The Ogletree thing, please stop over reacting everyone. I could have caught those passes, he didn't do anything even remotely close to special. He ran straight and the Giants let him go and he didn't drop the passes.As for Wilson, Coughlin has a history of coaching guys with bad fumblitius out of it. Tiki Barber, Bradshaw, Jacobs they all had really bad issues with fumbling and every one of them fixed that issue throughout the season. Wilson will be fine, I think right now it's a matter of what is more important for him to master first. Pass Blocking or ball carrying? The simple answer is blocking, they can't put him out there at risk to Eli. They can put them out there knowing there's a chance he loses the ball.

 

[BroadwayG]

Take out all positive runs for Murray and he averaged negative yards per carry. Definitely a dud.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

If not for that one run he puts up 20 carries for 83 yards and 4.1ypc.

uh oh..

 

[phrozen]

Good topic.

Murray had an okay day. I'll preface it by saying I'm not and never was a Murray supporter, but this is clearly a case of the stats not matching what was seen. Murray had 2 good runs, one a long gainer where he broke (more like the Giants missed) tackling him in the backfied twice. Another was when he squeezed through a hole that didn't look to be there. Other than that, I think the Giants held him pretty much in check. That said, I am reconsidering Murray and willing to admit that perhaps I was a little too down on Murray. I still don't think he'll end up in the top 12 and won't be worth the 1st or 2nd round pick that it cost to get him.

Any one that thinks Ogletree is going to be a season savior is probably kidding themselves. Two of the top 3 options for Romo were battling or just coming back from injuries. And the Giants were down to their 5th CB having to play a large portion of the game. This is just a case of Ogletree taking advantage of a hugely favorable matchup. It won't happen often, and he'll drop back down to end your bench or waiver wire fodder as Witten and Austin regain their health.

That was about the worse thing that could have happened to Wilson. Especially this early. He'll be worked back in, but I take this as Coughlin making a point to Wilson to show what will happen if he continues his fumbling ways. It looked like they planned to get Wilson a good amount of touches and I fully expect them to go back to that plan next week.

Great post, I agree with just about everything you said. Murray indeed really didn't look all that amazing. He had the big 48 yard run, that should have been a loss for 2. Instead when Tuck tried to wrap and spin to bring him down his O-Lineman happened to be standing there and literally held Murray up as he was falling forward which is what started that run. If not for that one run he puts up 20 carries for 83 yards and 4.1ypc. One of his 2 9yard carries was a blatant hold which literally resulted in JPP jumping up in the air and screaming at the ref after Tyron Smith actually wrapped his entire arm around JPP's neck to stop him from getting to Murray.

The Ogletree thing, please stop over reacting everyone. I could have caught those passes, he didn't do anything even remotely close to special. He ran straight and the Giants let him go and he didn't drop the passes.

As for Wilson, Coughlin has a history of coaching guys with bad fumblitius out of it. Tiki Barber, Bradshaw, Jacobs they all had really bad issues with fumbling and every one of them fixed that issue throughout the season. Wilson will be fine, I think right now it's a matter of what is more important for him to master first. Pass Blocking or ball carrying? The simple answer is blocking, they can't put him out there at risk to Eli. They can put them out there knowing there's a chance he loses the ball.

love this defense

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Alright, it's already started - drastic over-reaction to one game. One single game.

At first blush, there may be something to glean from last night's Giants/Cowboys tilt - but it may not be what you think it is. Ogletree's owners are grinning ear to ear (or those with early WW priority are suddenly drooling). Wilson owner's are crying in their rookie-laced kool-aid (or are trying to reassure themselves with silly mumblings like "the benching was just a ploy to motivate..."). Well, let's make some sense of what happened, what many THINK it means, and what it ACTUALLY means.

WHAT HAPPENED #1 - Demarco Murray ripped the Giants on the ground

WHAT WE THINK IT MEANS Murray will be a stud. He's healthty and ready to be a stud RB1.

WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS Maybe. The Giants are known for great pass rushing d-lineman. But not so much for stopping the run. In fact they were bottom half last season. That coupled with Murray being a little easily dinged, leads me to want to call Murray a "decent" RB1 - but not a bonafied, sure thing stud. He was used in the passing game too though - and Jones was statless. If you drafted Murray as your RB1, you'll be good - as long as he can stay healthy...but then again you can say that with almost anyone. What it actually means is fairly close to what we thought it meant.

WHAT HAPPENED #2 Ogletree was the #1 receiving option for the Cowboys - and was studly in the process.

WHAT WE THINK IT MEANS Ogletree is the WW stud everone has been waiting for. The M. Colston of 2012. He will save you WR group. He will become the #1 in Dallas.

WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS Ummm...no. It actually means three things. First, and most importantly, the Giants secondary is bad. By bad, I mean awful...putrid...atrocious. Second, before we annoint Ogle's the next...whatever, let's remember that Austin missed visrtually all of preseason and only gotten in a handful of practices. Witten also missed several preseason games due to his spleen injury. So 2 of Dallas' primary receiving options were not near 100% - nor had they gottne much work in in preseason. Third, Og's has been with the Cowboys for a while - and not shown to be this much a factor, either in terms of production or involvement.

What it really means, is that Ogletree will be a solid WR3 with WR2 upside when he sees a favorable matchup (like the Giants next time). He will likely regress to being the 3rd or 4th option in the passing game when Austin & Witten get healthy. While he might be a solid play for the next week or two, while the rest of the WR's heal, keep in mind, teams are going to see what he did Wednesday night, and not let him run free - the way the Giants did.

WHAT HAPPENED #3 David Wilson was basically benched after fumbling on his second carry.

WHAT WE THINK IT MEANS He's a rookie with fumbilitis. A BAD combo for a Coughlin RB - or at least one who wants to touch the ball more than once or twice a game. Wilson is useless in redraft leagues and playing behind 26 year-young Bradshaw, may not be "all that" in dynasty either.

WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS Honestly, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. It's very true that Coughlin (well, most NFL people) doesn't like fumbles. It's also true that Wilson had issues with ball security in college. I DO think Wilson's usefullness in redraft is extremely limited (barring a Bradshaw injury) - but, Bradshaw isn't going to be asked to carry 90% of the load either. Wilson will be "worked in" - once he shows he can hold on to the rock.

The other thing it will likely mean: A. Bradshaw will be 1000 yard rusher, barring injury. He won't get the 276 carries he did in 2010, but should easily get about 240 - and add some receptions in there as well (he is averaging >40 for the last two seasons). A nice RB2 with RB1 upside with a good matchup.

GG post.

 

[Judge Smails]

Good topic.Murray had an okay day. I'll preface it by saying I'm not and never was a Murray supporter, but this is clearly a case of the stats not matching what was seen. Murray had 2 good runs, one a long gainer where he broke (more like the Giants missed) tackling him in the backfied twice. Another was when he squeezed through a hole that didn't look to be there. Other than that, I think the Giants held him pretty much in check. That said, I am reconsidering Murray and willing to admit that perhaps I was a little too down on Murray. I still don't think he'll end up in the top 12 and won't be worth the 1st or 2nd round pick that it cost to get him. Any one that thinks Ogletree is going to be a season savior is probably kidding themselves. Two of the top 3 options for Romo were battling or just coming back from injuries. And the Giants were down to their 5th CB having to play a large portion of the game. This is just a case of Ogletree taking advantage of a hugely favorable matchup. It won't happen often, and he'll drop back down to end your bench or waiver wire fodder as Witten and Austin regain their health.That was about the worse thing that could have happened to Wilson. Especially this early. He'll be worked back in, but I take this as Coughlin making a point to Wilson to show what will happen if he continues his fumbling ways. It looked like they planned to get Wilson a good amount of touches and I fully expect them to go back to that plan next week.

I too will admit I may have been too down on Murray. Agree with your assessment, but I loved the way he bowled through people. No hesitation. He can go up the middle or to the outside. Don't necessarily love his vision, but it's hard to imagine him not breaking a few every game.My only point on Ogletree - won't he be going against the 4th or 5th best DB option EVERY week? With Bryant/Austin/Witten to worry about, Ogletree should have a favorable matchup every week. Isn't that how Robinson scored 11 TD's? And his receptions weren't fluky. He was getting separation.

 

[Zeff]

WHAT WE THINK IT MEANS Ogletree is the WW stud everone has been waiting for. The M. Colston of 2012. He will save you WR group. He will become the #1 in Dallas.

Nobody thinks this.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

 

[PatsFanCT]

This should be done for every game.

Nice work. Even if people don't agree, this is a very good concept.

 

[shader]

I'm ok with the over-reaction because this was a regular season game. After four weeks of over reaction based off of meaningless preseason games, it's nice to have real games to analyze. I look forward I reading your post in detail when I get back to the office though.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

WHAT WE THINK IT MEANS Ogletree is the WW stud everone has been waiting for. The M. Colston of 2012. He will save you WR group. He will become the #1 in Dallas.

Nobody thinks this.

The % of blind bid dollars going his way in leagues this week is going to tell you differently

 

[Mookie]

My only point on Ogletree - won't he be going against the 4th or 5th best DB option EVERY week? With Bryant/Austin/Witten to worry about, Ogletree should have a favorable matchup every week. Isn't that how Robinson scored 11 TD's? And his receptions weren't fluky. He was getting separation.

Granted, the Giants secondary is terrible and Witten/Austin have been out, but Ogletree's ability to separate from weak coverage and Robinson's success last season leads me to think that there is value here.

 

[Routilla]

Wilson hype was getting pretty heavy. I still like his skill set in the NYG offense. Factor in Bradshaw's injury risk and I say Wilson be had for a discounted price as a back end RB right now. He was a 1st rd pick, doubt the NYG don't give him another opportunity, especially with Bradshaw's feet. They will need him at some point and with Ware's release, he is clearly the choice. Get him in the film room and show him how to protect the ball. Buy low on Wilson, Bradshaw got stuffed twice at the goal line so his value stayed about where it was before the game, all IMO.

Edited to add, Wilson is not why the NYG lost. His fumble hurt but it was early and they got whipped on defense the entire 2nd half. Bigger fish to fry in NY right now on defense.

 

[sharptongued1]

My only point on Ogletree - won't he be going against the 4th or 5th best DB option EVERY week? With Bryant/Austin/Witten to worry about, Ogletree should have a favorable matchup every week. Isn't that how Robinson scored 11 TD's? And his receptions weren't fluky. He was getting separation.

Granted, the Giants secondary is terrible and Witten/Austin have been out, but Ogletree's ability to separate from weak coverage and Robinson's success last season leads me to think that there is value here.

That's what I ended up taking from the game last night. Whoever plays the slot in Dallas is going to put up some respectable numbers.

 

[Khy]

My only point on Ogletree - won't he be going against the 4th or 5th best DB option EVERY week? With Bryant/Austin/Witten to worry about, Ogletree should have a favorable matchup every week. Isn't that how Robinson scored 11 TD's? And his receptions weren't fluky. He was getting separation.

Granted, the Giants secondary is terrible and Witten/Austin have been out, but Ogletree's ability to separate from weak coverage and Robinson's success last season leads me to think that there is value here.

Can you even call it weak coverage? I could have caught those TD's from Romo last night. As I said above, there was no "ability" literally the first TD (the one at the end of the half) Ogletree literally just runs straight stops, then stands there for 5 seconds and just walks past 2 LBs who just ignore him and he walks into the end zone completely uncovered. Same thing, the second TD he did nothing. He ran straight and Webster wasn't paying attention. He was staring at Romo while Ogletree just ran behind him. If anything at all Ogletree's breakout told me is start all your WRs who are playing the Giants. They'll have big games. It told me nothing of Ogletree's "ability".

 

[RUSF18]

My only point on Ogletree - won't he be going against the 4th or 5th best DB option EVERY week? With Bryant/Austin/Witten to worry about, Ogletree should have a favorable matchup every week. Isn't that how Robinson scored 11 TD's? And his receptions weren't fluky. He was getting separation.

Granted, the Giants secondary is terrible and Witten/Austin have been out, but Ogletree's ability to separate from weak coverage and Robinson's success last season leads me to think that there is value here.

Can you even call it weak coverage? I could have caught those TD's from Romo last night. As I said above, there was no "ability" literally the first TD (the one at the end of the half) Ogletree literally just runs straight stops, then stands there for 5 seconds and just walks past 2 LBs who just ignore him and he walks into the end zone completely uncovered. Same thing, the second TD he did nothing. He ran straight and Webster wasn't paying attention. He was staring at Romo while Ogletree just ran behind him. If anything at all Ogletree's breakout told me is start all your WRs who are playing the Giants. They'll have big games. It told me nothing of Ogletree's "ability".

Webster bit hard on Ogletree's move on that second TD, I'm not sure what you were watching.Even taking away the two TDs, I thought his route running and catches in a decent amount of traffic were very positive signs. I'm not going to put an outrageous WW bid on him, but I'm not going to let someone else in my league have him for nothing either.

 

[The Kuhn]

The only thing that can hold back Murray's potential is Garrett...and maybe false start/holding penalties.

At least they showed some intent to run the ball in the red zone until they started going backwards from penalties.

 

[solorca]

If not for that one run he puts up 20 carries for 83 yards and 4.1ypc.

If you take away the top run from every player their stats are going to be skewed. 4.1ypc while removing their best run is pretty damn good.Also, if you really want to play the math game and take away the one carry (which is ridiculous), you need to remove the carry entirely rather than charging him with a zero yard run. If you remove the carry, he had 19 for 83 yards, which would have given him a 4.36ypc average. My only fault with Demarco's game last night was that he didn't get a good chance at a goal line carry, which I would have liked to see. I also wish they would have involved him more in the passing game, where he has shown significant skills.

 

[ichris]

I love the overreactions after the first hint of real football.

 

[SSOG]

WHAT HAPPENED #2 Ogletree was the #1 receiving option for the Cowboys - and was studly in the process.

WHAT WE THINK IT MEANS Ogletree is the WW stud everone has been waiting for. The M. Colston of 2012. He will save you WR group. He will become the #1 in Dallas.

WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS Ummm...no. It actually means three things. First, and most importantly, the Giants secondary is bad. By bad, I mean awful...putrid...atrocious. Second, before we annoint Ogle's the next...whatever, let's remember that Austin missed visrtually all of preseason and only gotten in a handful of practices. Witten also missed several preseason games due to his spleen injury. So 2 of Dallas' primary receiving options were not near 100% - nor had they gottne much work in in preseason. Third, Og's has been with the Cowboys for a while - and not shown to be this much a factor, either in terms of production or involvement.

Ogletree is only 24 years old. On the one hand, I have a hard time seeing a path to sustained relevance for him stuck behind Dez and Austin. With that said, it's insane for people to be breaking out the "what you see is what you get" arguments ("he's been with the cowboys for years and never looked special!", etc.)I also disagree with the idea that Ogletree was the #1 option for the Cowboys. The #1 isn't the guy who gets the most targets or the most stats, he's the guy that gets the most coverage. This was true when people were debating Fitzgerald vs Boldin (or calling them co-#1s). It was true of Moulds and Price. It is true of Nicks and Cruz. It's true of Wallace and Brown. Look at the guy that draws the toughest coverage and that's your #1.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Giant fan:

Ogletree burned Webster on the TD as Webster was caught looking into the backfield. Ogletree did his job and won the slant battles against the 5th CB, but he won them and caught the ball...he did better than Cruz in that department. Long term Ogletree is probably a 3-4 WR and Austin is still a better option.

Murray has very good vision and very good anticipation as a runner. I hate the Cowboys and their OL is not a good unit, but Murray is a very good RB. If he were on Houston, people would be thinking he is absolutely elite.

Wilson will get back in the game and do well as the Giants need him. The fumbling can't continue, but he will play and eventually take over for Bradshaw who runs really hard, but he is a guy who goes the wrong way frequently.

It was the 1st game of the year, refs stunk, both teams were really sloppy...it was week 1, don't overreact.

 

[DoubleG]

WHAT HAPPENED #2 Ogletree was the #1 receiving option for the Cowboys - and was studly in the process.

WHAT WE THINK IT MEANS Ogletree is the WW stud everone has been waiting for. The M. Colston of 2012. He will save you WR group. He will become the #1 in Dallas.

WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS Ummm...no. It actually means three things. First, and most importantly, the Giants secondary is bad. By bad, I mean awful...putrid...atrocious. Second, before we annoint Ogle's the next...whatever, let's remember that Austin missed visrtually all of preseason and only gotten in a handful of practices. Witten also missed several preseason games due to his spleen injury. So 2 of Dallas' primary receiving options were not near 100% - nor had they gottne much work in in preseason. Third, Og's has been with the Cowboys for a while - and not shown to be this much a factor, either in terms of production or involvement.

Ogletree is only 24 years old. On the one hand, I have a hard time seeing a path to sustained relevance for him stuck behind Dez and Austin. With that said, it's insane for people to be breaking out the "what you see is what you get" arguments ("he's been with the cowboys for years and never looked special!", etc.)I also disagree with the idea that Ogletree was the #1 option for the Cowboys. The #1 isn't the guy who gets the most targets or the most stats, he's the guy that gets the most coverage. This was true when people were debating Fitzgerald vs Boldin (or calling them co-#1s). It was true of Moulds and Price. It is true of Nicks and Cruz. It's true of Wallace and Brown. Look at the guy that draws the toughest coverage and that's your #1.

I have no issue with what you said - as you didn't actually argue against any of what I actually was trying to point out.If anyone just looked at the stats, they might presume that Ogletree was the WR1 - he lead the team in targets, receptions and TDs. Clearly that is not the case - nor is that the point I was trying to make.

Secondly, in regards to Ogletree, I did NOT say "what you see is what you get" - my point was simply that the Cowboys have not made a concerted effort to get him more involved in the passing game in the past. This may be a function of a number of things - the obvious one being that the two WRs ahead of him are more talented. That doesn't mean he's not - nor does it mean he won't be a productive WR (which I clearly stated in the paragraph which you didn't quote) - just that he will not typically lead the Cowboys in targets, one the other 2 (+ 1 TE) are healthy.

 

[Zeff]

WHAT HAPPENED #2 Ogletree was the #1 receiving option for the Cowboys - and was studly in the process.

WHAT WE THINK IT MEANS Ogletree is the WW stud everone has been waiting for. The M. Colston of 2012. He will save you WR group. He will become the #1 in Dallas.

WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS Ummm...no. It actually means three things. First, and most importantly, the Giants secondary is bad. By bad, I mean awful...putrid...atrocious. Second, before we annoint Ogle's the next...whatever, let's remember that Austin missed visrtually all of preseason and only gotten in a handful of practices. Witten also missed several preseason games due to his spleen injury. So 2 of Dallas' primary receiving options were not near 100% - nor had they gottne much work in in preseason. Third, Og's has been with the Cowboys for a while - and not shown to be this much a factor, either in terms of production or involvement.

Ogletree is only 24 years old. On the one hand, I have a hard time seeing a path to sustained relevance for him stuck behind Dez and Austin. With that said, it's insane for people to be breaking out the "what you see is what you get" arguments ("he's been with the cowboys for years and never looked special!", etc.)I also disagree with the idea that Ogletree was the #1 option for the Cowboys. The #1 isn't the guy who gets the most targets or the most stats, he's the guy that gets the most coverage. This was true when people were debating Fitzgerald vs Boldin (or calling them co-#1s). It was true of Moulds and Price. It is true of Nicks and Cruz. It's true of Wallace and Brown. Look at the guy that draws the toughest coverage and that's your #1.

There are plenty of teams that don't rotate their coverage, but keep their best guy on one side of the field or the other, because that's where he's practiced, that's where he's used to adjusting to the help that comes over, that's the sideline he works best with, etc.A team's #1 guy isn't necessarily the guy that draws the toughest coverage. He's the guy that's designed to be first in the read progressions in the bulk of the offense's plays, plain and simple.

 

[Shutout]

Wilson hype was getting pretty heavy. I still like his skill set in the NYG offense. Factor in Bradshaw's injury risk and I say Wilson be had for a discounted price as a back end RB right now. He was a 1st rd pick, doubt the NYG don't give him another opportunity, especially with Bradshaw's feet. They will need him at some point and with Ware's release, he is clearly the choice. Get him in the film room and show him how to protect the ball. Buy low on Wilson, Bradshaw got stuffed twice at the goal line so his value stayed about where it was before the game, all IMO.Edited to add, Wilson is not why the NYG lost. His fumble hurt but it was early and they got whipped on defense the entire 2nd half. Bigger fish to fry in NY right now on defense.

Yeah, wilson is an interesting observation this morning. Its apparent that the giants intended to use him early and often. But then he commits what is Coughlin's biggest pet peeve and there he sits. I'm sure Couglin probably got upset and then just sent a message and such; that's kind of his style. Had they won 45-10 last night, the first thing out of his mouth would have been "we've got to get better at protecting the ball." That's just how he is. but, still, the giants DID have him planned to be used early in this game. So now it becomes a question as to how much he will be affected. How long will it take before they are willing to give him another go? If they had RB luxuries, I would say Coughlin might doghouse him for 3-4 weeks but the stark reality in this case is Wilson is clearly the guy they need to help Bradshaw and also the guy to replace him if something flares up with Bradshaw. So, the giants can't really put Wilson in deep storage too long because they NEED him. Whether its a bad foot or a normal distribution of workload, they NEED him. So if they ice him, they might be shooting themselves in the foot by droping the ball (pun intended) on the opportunity to get him valuable work and keep him involved.

 

[chiefs2929]

Ogletree will be this year what Robinson did last year. Everyone is focused on Bryant, Austin, Witten, Murray. He will shine. Everyone is in denial who doesn't believe it

 

[Concept Coop]

Murray had an okay day. I'll preface it by saying I'm not and never was a Murray supporter, but this is clearly a case of the stats not matching what was seen. Murray had 2 good runs, one a long gainer where he broke (more like the Giants missed) tackling him in the backfied twice. Another was when he squeezed through a hole that didn't look to be there. Other than that, I think the Giants held him pretty much in check. That said, I am reconsidering Murray and willing to admit that perhaps I was a little too down on Murray. I still don't think he'll end up in the top 12 and won't be worth the 1st or 2nd round pick that it cost to get him.

He had a great day. His offensive line is not very good at moving the pile. He looked really good.

 

[B-Deep]

My only point on Ogletree - won't he be going against the 4th or 5th best DB option EVERY week? With Bryant/Austin/Witten to worry about, Ogletree should have a favorable matchup every week. Isn't that how Robinson scored 11 TD's? And his receptions weren't fluky. He was getting separation.

Granted, the Giants secondary is terrible and Witten/Austin have been out, but Ogletree's ability to separate from weak coverage and Robinson's success last season leads me to think that there is value here.

Can you even call it weak coverage? I could have caught those TD's from Romo last night. As I said above, there was no "ability" literally the first TD (the one at the end of the half) Ogletree literally just runs straight stops, then stands there for 5 seconds and just walks past 2 LBs who just ignore him and he walks into the end zone completely uncovered. Same thing, the second TD he did nothing. He ran straight and Webster wasn't paying attention. He was staring at Romo while Ogletree just ran behind him. If anything at all Ogletree's breakout told me is start all your WRs who are playing the Giants. They'll have big games. It told me nothing of Ogletree's "ability".

you've said that twice, but it is ridiculous you could not have. Ogletree showed something you don't have....opportunity. Opportunity plays a large part in fantasy football. So even if we conceded you could have run the routes, gotten the same coverage, made the same catch, and showed the same overall athleticism and awareness it takes to play ANY NFL position for even a play (all of which I doubt), you would not have because you have no opportunity.if nothing more than likely securing the slot position for Dallas for the foreseeable future, that alone increases Ogletree's value some, because he now has secured/demonstrated that he will have the opportunity to produce some.

though I agree people are going to go off the deep end on this

 

[Ariakis]

* Dallas OL is currently one of the worst in the league. They MIGHT gel - they as a group have yet to play more than a few plays intact ... ever. This will negatively impact the offense and make Romo LOOK foolish at times and Murray ineffective at times and the WR's ineffective at times (no time to develop routes) but I do expect improvement.

* Cowboys didn't have Ratliff to add to the rotation at NT and Jenkins at CB. Wow. I wouldn't be shocked if opposing WR's don't go off much all season as long as they stay healthy plus Ware rushing the passer.

* Murray ran hard and looks every bit the RB1 most thought. Would have liked more targets and screen plays. The OL will be a challenge all season though.

* Felix looks DONE. I wouldn't be shocked if they don't promote their PS guy and make Tanner their #2. This is important as Murray runs to contact perhaps too much.

* The Dallas WR's may have abused a weaker DB group but they played physical and were willing to go into traffic. The OTrain may be hard to start in fantasy but now teams can't roll coverage to Austin/Bryant which was the fear in being so top-heavy. I wouldn't be shocked if Harris has a big game soon too ... this is Romo more than Ogletree.

* Ogletree ran some great routes to get that open and caught what was thrown. He impressed. But as I said I think this does more for the TEAM than his own fantasy value down the road.

* Take away Bradshaw's 33 yard run and what do HIS numbers look like? Now consider most of his production came with the Cowboys playing a deep cover clock killing defense. Until then he did nothing. They HAVE to get Wilson involved I'd think.

 

[pwtrash]

Giant fan:Ogletree burned Webster on the TD as Webster was caught looking into the backfield. Ogletree did his job and won the slant battles against the 5th CB, but he won them and caught the ball...he did better than Cruz in that department. Long term Ogletree is probably a 3-4 WR and Austin is still a better option.Murray has very good vision and very good anticipation as a runner. I hate the Cowboys and their OL is not a good unit, but Murray is a very good RB. If he were on Houston, people would be thinking he is absolutely elite.Wilson will get back in the game and do well as the Giants need him. The fumbling can't continue, but he will play and eventually take over for Bradshaw who runs really hard, but he is a guy who goes the wrong way frequently.It was the 1st game of the year, refs stunk, both teams were really sloppy...it was week 1, don't overreact.

Thank you.After watching Murray last night, I saw a couple of things confirmed: 1) He is a bad man 2) He seeks contact and will increase his chances of injury unless he decides to avoid contact every once in a while.The idea that he had a couple of good runs seems silly to me. In fact, I think his worst play was also on his best play - if he reads the Dez block, that 48 yarder turns into a TD. 1) It seems odd to discount a 48 yard run. There are not that many starting backs capable of beating three layers of an NFL defense for almost 50 yards.2) Again on that run, you can't discount the fact that before he went around his olineman, he crashed into Kiwanuka and knocked him down3) There were other notable runs: 9-yarder during the first TD drive, 9 yard rush and 9 yard pass in the second one4) Last TD drive - where they need to kill time: 5 yards, 5 yards, 9 yards, 15 yards5) Last drive of the game, when everyone knew what time it was: 1, 7, and then holding call.Tough to say that was only a couple of good runs.The interior line of Dallas is terrible and he runs like he is trying to get worker's comp, but I saw a pretty unique combination of size and speed last night.

 

[B-Deep]

If i ran this place anyone who argued "take away his big play(s)" would be banned, or would at least have to wear the textual equivalent of a dunce cap in their signature

 

[MAC_32]

The only takeaways I had from last night's game

-Until healthy, exploit the Giants secondary

-Either Dallas' d line is better than I thought they were or the Giants o line is a lot worse. I expected the back 7 to be improved, but thought the front would be a problem - it wasn't.

-Ogletree may be able to fill the 3rd WR role, notice the wording there, I'm not knocking over my grandmother to pick him up off waivers

-I may have written Bennett off too soon, monitor in shallower leagues

Nothing else really surprised me. Cruz, Nicks, Witten, Austin, Dez, Romo, Bradshaw, Wilson, Murray - all about what I expected.

 

[UKColt]

If not for that one run he puts up 20 carries for 83 yards and 4.1ypc.

If you take away the top run from every player their stats are going to be skewed. 4.1ypc while removing their best run is pretty damn good.Also, if you really want to play the math game and take away the one carry (which is ridiculous), you need to remove the carry entirely rather than charging him with a zero yard run. If you remove the carry, he had 19 for 83 yards, which would have given him a 4.36ypc average. My only fault with Demarco's game last night was that he didn't get a good chance at a goal line carry, which I would have liked to see. I also wish they would have involved him more in the passing game, where he has shown significant skills.

If we take away all his terrible carries when his o-line let him down, he had 1 carry and a 48 ypc. He's a stud...

 

[johnadams]

If i ran this place anyone who argued "take away his big play(s)" would be banned, or would at least have to wear the textual equivalent of a dunce cap in their signature

Sure, you can glean some context by looking at performance other than the big runs, but big plays from playmakers is one of the most tired but true cliches in football.

 

[rickyg]

WHAT WE THINK IT MEANS Ogletree is the WW stud everone has been waiting for. The M. Colston of 2012. He will save you WR group. He will become the #1 in Dallas.

Nobody thinks this.

Exacrly what I was thinking. This is a classic counter over reaction to a perceived over reaction about a players value. I don't think I read a single post claiming any of this. People are excited about him because he is and always will be this season (barring injury to dez or Austin) the NUMBER 3 WR and slot guy for the cowboys. He will never have to face any teams top corners, and no opposing team is EVER going to decide to pull a top corner off of a healthy dez or Austin to cover Kevin Gd damn ogleshmee in the slot. It would be the dumbest defensive move ever. He will make a career year going up against safeties and linebackers who can't match his speed so he will have mismatch advantages all year. The health of Austin and Witten returning only helps him make the most of his targets even of they are diminished because of that.

Maybe movin forward he gets 5-8 targets per game. Well if he is getting targeted in some open space he has the speed and agility to make some good YAC and make the most out of 4-5 catches per game. Totally feasible. Not crazy to think this. And it was done last year by Robinson.

I think the OP has good points on the other players but is missing the mark on oglevee

 

[ericttspikes]

Wilson hype was getting pretty heavy. I still like his skill set in the NYG offense. Factor in Bradshaw's injury risk and I say Wilson be had for a discounted price as a back end RB right now. He was a 1st rd pick, doubt the NYG don't give him another opportunity, especially with Bradshaw's feet. They will need him at some point and with Ware's release, he is clearly the choice. Get him in the film room and show him how to protect the ball. Buy low on Wilson, Bradshaw got stuffed twice at the goal line so his value stayed about where it was before the game, all IMO.Edited to add, Wilson is not why the NYG lost. His fumble hurt but it was early and they got whipped on defense the entire 2nd half. Bigger fish to fry in NY right now on defense.

Didn't like the fumble either, but there really is no one else at RB currently to mix in with Bradshaw. Scott has a 3.2 avg on only 5 pro carries, and he also lost a fumble last year. I doubt Brown is suddenly in line for work after 3 years of bouncing around the league with nothing on tape. Either Bradshaw will get 300 carries this year, Wilson will be fine or the Giants will bring another RB in. Options 2 & 3 seem the most likely. I have both Bradshaw and Wilson so not too concerned as it stands, but will be if the Giants make an RB move.

 

[rickyg]

I will also add that if you are a dez or Austin owner like me, it becomes even more important to pick up oglevee (like the shampoo). Aside from him being insurance for an injury to either, he might Kat end up being the better fantasy play of the 3 just like Robinson was last season. I know that it's hard to imagine, but we are talking fantasy here not reality. In reality dez and Austin are far superior wrs than oglevee Vo5. In fantasy the jury is still out but he may just be the most consistently best play of the 3 given the attn that opposing defenses will give to dez, Austin, and Witten all year long, leaving oglevee Vo5 to run free from the slot.

 

[Hendo]

Say what you will about Ogeltree... but last season showed us just how much Tony Romo targets his WR#3. I'm not sure if that's game plan or just an oddity, but the WR#3 slot garners far more targets and looks by Romo then any other position including the TE and RB (in the passing game). As a Bryant owner in a dynasty this is both upsetting and a concern as I really fully believe Dez Bryant just will not get the looks needed to be anywhere close to what people project on that team unless he was moved down to the 3 spot.

 

[Gr00vus]

The only takeaways I had from last night's game-Until healthy, exploit the Giants secondary

My main takeaway is just to question how bad/good the Giants' D is. Can the homers chime in on this - to what degree was last night's game representative of what you expect from the Giants' D this year?

 

[solorca]

pick up oglevee (like the shampoo).

Thanks for pointing that out. Now that I understand what you were going for, that joke is hilarious! Bravo!

 

[MAC_32]

The only takeaways I had from last night's game-Until healthy, exploit the Giants secondary

My main takeaway is just to question how bad/good the Giants' D is. Can the homers chime in on this - to what degree was last night's game representative of what you expect from the Giants' D this year?

Outside of a few missed assignments by LB's filling gaps in run defense I thought the Giants front 7 played very well. The Cowboys o line had no push up front and JPP was causing havoc all game long. Romo and Murray were just a little better and then the secondary fell completely apart after Coe went out.

 

[MAC_32]

By the way, I think a thread along these lines can be a very useful tool in-season. Not an over-react thread, but one that breaks down takeaways from a given game. May try to do one for each game I watch, would be cool if others did too.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Nice thread DG

 

[Modog814]

Murray had an okay day. I'll preface it by saying I'm not and never was a Murray supporter, but this is clearly a case of the stats not matching what was seen. Murray had 2 good runs, one a long gainer where he broke (more like the Giants missed) tackling him in the backfied twice. Another was when he squeezed through a hole that didn't look to be there. Other than that, I think the Giants held him pretty much in check. That said, I am reconsidering Murray and willing to admit that perhaps I was a little too down on Murray. I still don't think he'll end up in the top 12 and won't be worth the 1st or 2nd round pick that it cost to get him.

He had a great day. His offensive line is not very good at moving the pile. He looked really good.

We can disagree. I don't think it was great. To me, the stats look a lot better than he actually did. My biggest concern with Murray is that I don't think he can create on his own very much and thus is subject to what his line does get for him. On the two runs I mentioned, he eased some of this concern for me, but not nearly all of it. The long run was more of a fluke than anything (no, i'm not suggesting that you take it away), but he did manage to keep his feet and find a hole, so I'm giving him credit where it's due. That said, I'm still not buying and if I did own him, I'd be selling.

 

[silentcoach]

Statistically speaking, 1/14 (week 15 and 16 playoffs for most)is roughly 7% and that can be considered pretty significant (if p>0.05). The key is to know what "really" happened, but I would not call it "just a single game" implying its lack of importance for fantasy purposes.

Carry on...

 

[Shutout]

Say what you will about Ogeltree... but last season showed us just how much Tony Romo targets his WR#3. I'm not sure if that's game plan or just an oddity, but the WR#3 slot garners far more targets and looks by Romo then any other position including the TE and RB (in the passing game). As a Bryant owner in a dynasty this is both upsetting and a concern as I really fully believe Dez Bryant just will not get the looks needed to be anywhere close to what people project on that team unless he was moved down to the 3 spot.

this is exactly correct. It almost surprises me that people are glossing over Ogletree's performance and are spending more time making dismissive remarks than actually thinking this through. Seems like just a year ago, we were having the same conversations about this no-name victor Cruz guy that "had been with the Giants forever and hadn't done much", who was "clearly behind the top two WRs and TE for targets", who "couldn't possible step in and replicate what Steve smith had done". Yet, the pattern was established. We had seen it before on the giants and we have seen it before with the Cowboys and people still look the other way.

Somewhere out there, there are owners in leagues that have Foster, tamme, Cruz, and soon to be Ogletree that thank you. Just keep living in denial while those guys just pick these guys up. It seems like 90% of the talk on these boards is always about swinging for the fences...getting the guys with the upside. We spend months talking about the difference in 3 draft spots for guys like DMAC and Chris Johnson, based on "upside". Yet, when it comes down to a player with REAL value and almost nothing but upside, we scurry to our pcs to type out dismissive remarks.