karmarooster
Footballguy
I feel like poking some holes in these projections because bar review is just so damn boring.
Last year, Indy thew 628 passes vs. 440 rushes... with Andrew Luck as a rookie. That's more passes than Atlanta. Roughly 59/41%. With Andrew Luck developing, I don't see that tilting more towards the ground game. If anything, they might continue to throw it more with Luck's development. Switching DHB for Avery is basically a push, and now the rookie TEs are a year older. Plus, there's Vick Ballard, Donald Brown, and Delone Carter (if all make the roster) to compete for carries. Of course, the addition of Bradshaw could signal a renewed emphasis on the ground.
Injury potential aside (which is quite substantial for Bradshaw), I think 200 carries is his absolute healthy ceiling in the offense next to other RBs, but I think 150-200 is more likely given Luck, and other RBs. In contrast, if DMC is healthy, he is the THE guy in Oakland.
Over the last 3 seasons (48 games), Bradshaw has started 66% of games, and at least played in 87.5%. That estimates Bradshaw's games this year between 10 - 14 games. All the more reason to have him closer to 150 carries than 200 carries. IMO, the biggest effect of Bradshaw's move to Indy is to destroy Ballard's value and cap his own. Not much upside here, if everything breaks right he's a max 200 carry, 40 reception, borderline RB2 with injury risk.
And yes Stewart's career YPC is 4.7, but it was almost as putrid as DMC last year at 3.6. Stewart hasn't seen this number of carries (~175) since 2009 + 2010, before the Cam Newton area. For Stewart to really break out and have 175-200+ carries, not only does he need to stay healthy (probably the biggest risk among these 3 RBs), he probably needs at least one of D-Will and/or Tolbert to miss time. So, not only is Stewart NOT healthy, he has tons of competition for carries, and the offense doesn't run through him.
The only thing DMC shares with Stewart is injury risk - if DMC plays, he has no competition and the offense does run through him.
Yes his YPC last year was putrid. But he was 5.2 and 5.4 the two years prior, and 4.4 as a limited rookie. IF the offensive scheme is designed around his strengths, I imagine his YPC will be closer to 5 than 3.3. Of course there's not that much talent on the team, so under 5 is probably safe. His career average minus last year is ~4.7. Anyways 4.3 isn't that bad, but 4.5 is still safe.
Projecting the number of games played and/or number of carries is a real crap shoot. But you know that IF he plays, not only is he the clear lead back, he's the center of the offense. So carries, receptions, and a modest number of TDs. But here's my best guess:
With the other mid-round RBs (not just Bradshaw and Stewart, but probably including Miller), if you "hit", you're only hitting a single or double. If you "hit" on DMC, we all know there is at least a chance he returns to ~1,500 total yards, 50 receptions, and 8-10 TDs.
921 yards @ 4.6 YPC = 200 carries.Bradshaw:
Attempts: 921 Yards YPC 4.6 TDs 32 Receptions 132 Receiving Yards
Last year, Indy thew 628 passes vs. 440 rushes... with Andrew Luck as a rookie. That's more passes than Atlanta. Roughly 59/41%. With Andrew Luck developing, I don't see that tilting more towards the ground game. If anything, they might continue to throw it more with Luck's development. Switching DHB for Avery is basically a push, and now the rookie TEs are a year older. Plus, there's Vick Ballard, Donald Brown, and Delone Carter (if all make the roster) to compete for carries. Of course, the addition of Bradshaw could signal a renewed emphasis on the ground.
Injury potential aside (which is quite substantial for Bradshaw), I think 200 carries is his absolute healthy ceiling in the offense next to other RBs, but I think 150-200 is more likely given Luck, and other RBs. In contrast, if DMC is healthy, he is the THE guy in Oakland.
Over the last 3 seasons (48 games), Bradshaw has started 66% of games, and at least played in 87.5%. That estimates Bradshaw's games this year between 10 - 14 games. All the more reason to have him closer to 150 carries than 200 carries. IMO, the biggest effect of Bradshaw's move to Indy is to destroy Ballard's value and cap his own. Not much upside here, if everything breaks right he's a max 200 carry, 40 reception, borderline RB2 with injury risk.
See this article by Dr. Jene Bramel, voicing serious concerns about JStew's health: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=13bramel_jonathan_stewart_anklesJonathan Stewart:
Attempts: 818 Yards: 3836 YPC 4.7 TDs 27 Receptions 98 Rec Yards 859
And yes Stewart's career YPC is 4.7, but it was almost as putrid as DMC last year at 3.6. Stewart hasn't seen this number of carries (~175) since 2009 + 2010, before the Cam Newton area. For Stewart to really break out and have 175-200+ carries, not only does he need to stay healthy (probably the biggest risk among these 3 RBs), he probably needs at least one of D-Will and/or Tolbert to miss time. So, not only is Stewart NOT healthy, he has tons of competition for carries, and the offense doesn't run through him.
The only thing DMC shares with Stewart is injury risk - if DMC plays, he has no competition and the offense does run through him.
This is where things get funky. 760 yrds @ 4.3 YPC = 178 carries, so that's healthy for roughly more than half the season. But 18 receptions? He had almost that many in the first game last year. Over 44 career starts, DMC averages about 3.5 receptions per game. 2.7 per game if you consider all games played and not starts. So these receptions totals in line with him playing 5 or 6 games.McFadden:
Attempts 769 Yards YPC 4.3 TDs 18 Receptions 158 Rec. Yards
Yes his YPC last year was putrid. But he was 5.2 and 5.4 the two years prior, and 4.4 as a limited rookie. IF the offensive scheme is designed around his strengths, I imagine his YPC will be closer to 5 than 3.3. Of course there's not that much talent on the team, so under 5 is probably safe. His career average minus last year is ~4.7. Anyways 4.3 isn't that bad, but 4.5 is still safe.
Projecting the number of games played and/or number of carries is a real crap shoot. But you know that IF he plays, not only is he the clear lead back, he's the center of the offense. So carries, receptions, and a modest number of TDs. But here's my best guess:
- 12 games played, 17 carries a game, 209 carries @ 4.5 YPC = 943 yards.
- 40 receptions, @ 7 YPC = 280 yards.
- 6-8 TDs
- So ~17-18 points per game PPR. Not that dissimilar to Bradshaw above in volume, but greater in PPG, and much more upside
With the other mid-round RBs (not just Bradshaw and Stewart, but probably including Miller), if you "hit", you're only hitting a single or double. If you "hit" on DMC, we all know there is at least a chance he returns to ~1,500 total yards, 50 receptions, and 8-10 TDs.
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