Parse the Rookie WRs for Dynasty Purposes (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

especially (though not necessarily restricted to) those picked in first three rounds...

baldwin, cobb, smith, little, etc.

factoring in opportunity as well as talent, of course...

 

[meroj]

especially those picked in first three rounds...baldwin, cobb, smith, little, etc.factoring in opportunity as well as talent, of course...

I can only speak on greg little because I know his situation and skill set best. IMO he is a perfect fit for a west coast offense. He will get the opportunity from day 1 to be the guy there. He is big, strong, and ferocious after the catch. Long term I like him as much as green and jones. (that might be a little much, I know)

 

[moderated]

Little/Baldwin (true #1 wr potential)

Cobb/t.young/t.smith (great for real NFL but upside limited for fantasy, Cobb and young slot wr's)

Hankerson/v.brown (solid but neither stands out as studly, project as #2's)

 

[Tick]

Predraft average ranking tiers based on about a dozen rankings:

Hankerson, Smith, Cobb, Baldwin, Young, Jernigan, Little

Paul, Doss, Salas, VBrown, Gates, Toliver, Pettis, RJohnson

Harris, Moore, Kerley, DBrown, Shorts, Adams

Sanzenbacher, Binns, Gurley, Whalen

I'll look at the first tier plus Vincent Brown and Austin Pettis, which covers the first three rounds.

Leonard Hankerson, Redskins, 79th.

Short-term opportunity: Great - should start opposite SMoss assuming Malcolm Kelly can be buried.

Long-term opportunity: Good - SMoss going away soon, so even if Kelly or Paul emerges, he's going to be a starter. Not sure he could handle #1 job, though.

Surrounding cast: Awful. He doesn't get doubled, but he has no QB currently and not a great running game.

Torrey Smith, Ravens, 58th.

STO: Stretch the field while Boldin, Mason, Rice, and the TEs work the rest of the field. One of those 28 catch, 6 TD seasons seems likely (note: all six TDs in games nobody starts him in).

LTO: Great - Mason's old, Boldin's pretty old and beaten up, and otherwise there's just Doss to compete with.

SC: Good. He won't get doubled for awhile, the running game is strong, and Flacco's not great, but not afraid to air it out when needed and is still young.

Randall Cobb, Packers, 64th

STO: Mediocre. Jennings, Finley, and Driver/Nelson pick up too many of the targets. Could improve if Driver is gone and he passes up Nelson. Could be worse if Jones returns.

LTO: Medicore. Won't he always be a slot guy? Jennings is still young.

SC: Great. Rodgers is great and young, Jennings draws double teams, running game doesn't seem to be necessary.

Jonathan Baldwin, Chiefs, 26th

STO: Great - should start immediately opposite Bowe.

LTO: Great - no competition, could pass Bowe long-term.

SC: Good. Bowe draws the double at first, Cassel's only okay, running game is strong.

Titus Young, Lions, 44th

STO: Good - probably a lot like Torrey Smith behind Calvin and Burleson.

LTO: Great - long-term #2 opposite a stud, should pass Burleson next season.

SC: Good. Calvin draws double teams, run game is below average, Stafford has the tools but is always hurt.

Jerrel Jernigan, Giants, 83rd

STO: Bad - Nicks, Manningham, and Smith (if healthy) are a problem. Even their backups are decent.

LTO: Average - it just seems too clogged with young proven players to me.

SC: Good - Eli's steady, Nicks draws the double team, running team is strong.

Greg Little, Browns, 59th

STO: Great - Massaquoi hasn't delivered, Robiskie is nothing special, Carlton Mitchell might be ahead.

LTO: Good - not great because I could see them bringing in a vet or drafting more competition, plus Mitchell is a factor.

SC: Awful. McCoy's weak, there's no other WR to draw coverage, the running game is surprisingly good.

Vincent Brown, Chargers, 82nd

STO: Decent - Jackson should be back, Floyd probably not, and Brown competes with Crayton and Ajirotutu for the 2-4 spots. I doubt he gets the 2 immediately, but wouldn't be too surprised if he did.

LTO: Great - only Jackson is better, and he'll be gone in another 1-2 years IMO.

SC: Good. Most would say great since Rivers is so good and not old yet, but Brown feels like a #2 to me, and they currently don't have a #1 after Jackson's gone. Running game should be strong.

Austin Pettis, Rams, 78th

STO: A total mess - Salas comes in one round later, and all of Clayton, Alexander, Avery, Gibson, and the Texas Tech guy whose name I can't remember have looked good at times.

LTO: A total mess - see above. All these guys are young.

SC: Good - Bradford looks the part, running game is average, no idea who draws coverage.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Bloom 100 coming tomorrow - off the top of my head

Little

Cobb

Brown

Salas

Baldwin

Smith

Gates

Hankerson

to round out a top 10

 

[mcintyre1]

Don't forget that Hankerson will have to beat out Anthony Armstrong for that #2 receiver role. Armstrong really had a solid season after he earned the job, putting up 871 yards on 44 catches with a few TDs.

 

[madd futher]

Nice thread, and especially thoughtful analysis, tick

.

 

[Tau837]

Vincent Brown, Chargers, 82nd

STO: Decent - Jackson should be back, Floyd probably not, and Brown competes with Crayton and Ajirotutu for the 2-4 spots. I doubt he gets the 2 immediately, but wouldn't be too surprised if he did.

LTO: Great - only Jackson is better, and he'll be gone in another 1-2 years IMO.

SC: Good. Most would say great since Rivers is so good and not old yet, but Brown feels like a #2 to me, and they currently don't have a #1 after Jackson's gone. Running game should be strong.

Generally good post, but I have to disagree with your Chargers opportunity assessment here.IMO Jackson will only be back if there is a franchise tag and A.J. Smith chooses to franchise and keep him. I assume if that happens, Jackson would play for franchise money. However, A.J. could also franchise and trade him. A.J. certainly made it clear he felt the Chargers were good enough without him that he didn't want to pay him the big money Jackson wanted last season. And the passing game was very good without him.

And all of that discussion assumes there is a franchise tag. If there is no CBA, I doubt there will be a franchise tag in the rules that get established for 2011. If there is a CBA, it could eliminate franchise tags or change the nature of how they work to an extent that A.J. won't want to use it on Jackson. And I think it is pretty obvious that Jackson will leave if not franchised. My assumption is that Jackson is gone.

Beyond Jackson, you didn't mention Naanee or Kelly Washington, who are both UFAs, but perhaps you ignored them because you expect them to be gone, and I agree. You also didn't mention Buster Davis, who is still under contract for one more year, but again perhaps because you expect he will be cut, and I agree. All of these guys were among the Chargers top 4 WRs at some point last year, but all should be gone this year.

Because I expect Jackson to be gone, I expect the Chargers to resign Floyd to ensure they have at least one experienced WR, making him their #1 WR in 2011 and maybe beyond. That leaves Ajirotutu and Crayton as the #2 and #3 in 2011, probably in that order, and Brown #4. The only good news for Brown here is that Floyd is injury prone, so there could be some games he misses where Brown could get top 3 WR snaps.

All of this assumes that the Chargers do not sign a WR to replace Jackson... not a #1 type but perhaps a #2/#3 type.

On top of all of this, consider that San Diego is #31 in the NFL in WR targets over the past 4 seasons, since Turner arrived. That is partly because he strives for a balanced offense, and San Diego typically is in the bottom third of the league in passing attempts, and partly because the offense targets the RBs and TEs a lot in the passing game. Maybe it will help a bit that Sproles should be gone, though supposedly Mathews is a good receiving back. But Gates will remain the top target in the offense for the foreseeable future.

Given all of this, I wouldn't call Brown's STO decent. I think there is little reason to believe he'll get many targets over the first couple of seasons... IMO he'll be lucky to reach 40 targets in either of his first two seasons.

I do think his LTO is potentially very good. Floyd will turn 30 this year and Gates is almost 31, and both have had injury issues. Crayton is 32 and there is no reason to believe he will ever be more than a #3/slot guy. Even if Ajirotutu were to emerge as a #1 caliber WR, the opportunity is there for Brown to eventually be the #2.

From a dynasty perspective, I doubt he'll be good enough that if anyone takes him they will hold him for the next 2 years. So he could be a guy to watch and potentially target at some point in 2012, depending on how he looks and what goes on with San Diego's roster.

 

[Tick]

Vincent Brown, Chargers, 82nd

STO: Decent - Jackson should be back, Floyd probably not, and Brown competes with Crayton and Ajirotutu for the 2-4 spots. I doubt he gets the 2 immediately, but wouldn't be too surprised if he did.

LTO: Great - only Jackson is better, and he'll be gone in another 1-2 years IMO.

SC: Good. Most would say great since Rivers is so good and not old yet, but Brown feels like a #2 to me, and they currently don't have a #1 after Jackson's gone. Running game should be strong.

Generally good post, but I have to disagree with your Chargers opportunity assessment here.IMO Jackson will only be back if there is a franchise tag and A.J. Smith chooses to franchise and keep him. I assume if that happens, Jackson would play for franchise money. However, A.J. could also franchise and trade him. A.J. certainly made it clear he felt the Chargers were good enough without him that he didn't want to pay him the big money Jackson wanted last season. And the passing game was very good without him.

And all of that discussion assumes there is a franchise tag. If there is no CBA, I doubt there will be a franchise tag in the rules that get established for 2011. If there is a CBA, it could eliminate franchise tags or change the nature of how they work to an extent that A.J. won't want to use it on Jackson. And I think it is pretty obvious that Jackson will leave if not franchised. My assumption is that Jackson is gone.

Beyond Jackson, you didn't mention Naanee or Kelly Washington, who are both UFAs, but perhaps you ignored them because you expect them to be gone, and I agree. You also didn't mention Buster Davis, who is still under contract for one more year, but again perhaps because you expect he will be cut, and I agree. All of these guys were among the Chargers top 4 WRs at some point last year, but all should be gone this year.

Because I expect Jackson to be gone, I expect the Chargers to resign Floyd to ensure they have at least one experienced WR, making him their #1 WR in 2011 and maybe beyond. That leaves Ajirotutu and Crayton as the #2 and #3 in 2011, probably in that order, and Brown #4. The only good news for Brown here is that Floyd is injury prone, so there could be some games he misses where Brown could get top 3 WR snaps.

All of this assumes that the Chargers do not sign a WR to replace Jackson... not a #1 type but perhaps a #2/#3 type.

On top of all of this, consider that San Diego is #31 in the NFL over the past 4 seasons, since Turner arrived. That is partly because he strives for a balanced offense, and San Diego typically is in the bottom third of the league in passing attempts, and partly because the offense targets the RBs and TEs a lot in the passing game. Maybe it will help a bit that Sproles should be gone, though supposedly Mathews is a good receiving back. But Gates will remain the top target in the offense for the foreseeable future.

Given all of this, I wouldn't call Brown's STO decent. I think there is little reason to believe he'll get many targets over the first couple of seasons... IMO he'll be lucky to reach 40 targets in either of his first two seasons.

I do think his LTO is potentially very good. Floyd will turn 30 this year and Gates is almost 31, and both have had injury issues. Crayton is 32 and there is no reason to believe he will ever be more than a #3/slot guy. Even if Ajirotutu were to emerge as a #1 caliber WR, the opportunity is there for Brown to eventually be the #2.

From a dynasty perspective, I doubt he'll be good enough that if anyone takes him they will hold him for the next 2 years. So he could be a guy to watch and potentially target at some point in 2012, depending on how he looks and what goes on with San Diego's roster.

Thanks for the more thorough analysis. Is the bolded part meant to say they're 31st in WR scoring?You might be right about the window for Brown to shine, but I think it happens a little earlier. I could see Gates falling off a cliff in about a year - he's always playing through an injury, and TEs don't last as long as other positions. One thing I don't agree with is the assumption that some have that Brown will step right in at the #2 spot. I don't mean to pick on Bloom, but he was the most vocal example:

WOW

Vincent Brown to the Chargers!!!!

Oh boy, love the situation/QB - You're looking at the #2 to Vincent Jackson for the long haul. He is definitely top 15 on my rookie board.

 

[EBF]

Ask again in 48 hours.

 

[cstu]

One thing I don't agree with is the assumption that some have that Brown will step right in at the #2 spot.

I just grabbed him at #12 and here's how I see it shaking out:VJax - gone, I don't think he gets franchisedBuster - goneNaanee - goneThat leaves Floyd as the #1 and Brown competing with Crayton and Ajirotutu, both of which he has the ability to beat out this year. Even if VJax stays for a year, in all probability Brown will be the #2 next year.

 

[Tau837]

Vincent Brown, Chargers, 82nd

STO: Decent - Jackson should be back, Floyd probably not, and Brown competes with Crayton and Ajirotutu for the 2-4 spots. I doubt he gets the 2 immediately, but wouldn't be too surprised if he did.

LTO: Great - only Jackson is better, and he'll be gone in another 1-2 years IMO.

SC: Good. Most would say great since Rivers is so good and not old yet, but Brown feels like a #2 to me, and they currently don't have a #1 after Jackson's gone. Running game should be strong.

Generally good post, but I have to disagree with your Chargers opportunity assessment here.IMO Jackson will only be back if there is a franchise tag and A.J. Smith chooses to franchise and keep him. I assume if that happens, Jackson would play for franchise money. However, A.J. could also franchise and trade him. A.J. certainly made it clear he felt the Chargers were good enough without him that he didn't want to pay him the big money Jackson wanted last season. And the passing game was very good without him.

And all of that discussion assumes there is a franchise tag. If there is no CBA, I doubt there will be a franchise tag in the rules that get established for 2011. If there is a CBA, it could eliminate franchise tags or change the nature of how they work to an extent that A.J. won't want to use it on Jackson. And I think it is pretty obvious that Jackson will leave if not franchised. My assumption is that Jackson is gone.

Beyond Jackson, you didn't mention Naanee or Kelly Washington, who are both UFAs, but perhaps you ignored them because you expect them to be gone, and I agree. You also didn't mention Buster Davis, who is still under contract for one more year, but again perhaps because you expect he will be cut, and I agree. All of these guys were among the Chargers top 4 WRs at some point last year, but all should be gone this year.

Because I expect Jackson to be gone, I expect the Chargers to resign Floyd to ensure they have at least one experienced WR, making him their #1 WR in 2011 and maybe beyond. That leaves Ajirotutu and Crayton as the #2 and #3 in 2011, probably in that order, and Brown #4. The only good news for Brown here is that Floyd is injury prone, so there could be some games he misses where Brown could get top 3 WR snaps.

All of this assumes that the Chargers do not sign a WR to replace Jackson... not a #1 type but perhaps a #2/#3 type.

On top of all of this, consider that San Diego is #31 in the NFL over the past 4 seasons, since Turner arrived. That is partly because he strives for a balanced offense, and San Diego typically is in the bottom third of the league in passing attempts, and partly because the offense targets the RBs and TEs a lot in the passing game. Maybe it will help a bit that Sproles should be gone, though supposedly Mathews is a good receiving back. But Gates will remain the top target in the offense for the foreseeable future.

Given all of this, I wouldn't call Brown's STO decent. I think there is little reason to believe he'll get many targets over the first couple of seasons... IMO he'll be lucky to reach 40 targets in either of his first two seasons.

I do think his LTO is potentially very good. Floyd will turn 30 this year and Gates is almost 31, and both have had injury issues. Crayton is 32 and there is no reason to believe he will ever be more than a #3/slot guy. Even if Ajirotutu were to emerge as a #1 caliber WR, the opportunity is there for Brown to eventually be the #2.

From a dynasty perspective, I doubt he'll be good enough that if anyone takes him they will hold him for the next 2 years. So he could be a guy to watch and potentially target at some point in 2012, depending on how he looks and what goes on with San Diego's roster.

Thanks for the more thorough analysis. Is the bolded part meant to say they're 31st in WR scoring?You might be right about the window for Brown to shine, but I think it happens a little earlier. I could see Gates falling off a cliff in about a year - he's always playing through an injury, and TEs don't last as long as other positions. One thing I don't agree with is the assumption that some have that Brown will step right in at the #2 spot. I don't mean to pick on Bloom, but he was the most vocal example:

WOW

Vincent Brown to the Chargers!!!!

Oh boy, love the situation/QB - You're looking at the #2 to Vincent Jackson for the long haul. He is definitely top 15 on my rookie board.

Sorry, #31 in the NFL in WR targets. Probably higher in scoring given their success at the long ball. But in discussing opportunity, I think targets are very relevant.I'm really interested that people seem to think Vincent Jackson is staying. I don't see it right now.

 

[Tau837]

One thing I don't agree with is the assumption that some have that Brown will step right in at the #2 spot.

I just grabbed him at #12 and here's how I see it shaking out:VJax - gone, I don't think he gets franchisedBuster - goneNaanee - goneThat leaves Floyd as the #1 and Brown competing with Crayton and Ajirotutu, both of which he has the ability to beat out this year. Even if VJax stays for a year, in all probability Brown will be the #2 next year.

Maybe I just don't know enough about Brown. I just don't see a WR taken 82nd overall and behind 9 other WRs as being talented enough to step in and beat out Crayton and Ajirotutu. I asked about this in the Chargers thread and Maurile seemed to agree that he would expect Brown to be #4 this year behind Floyd, Ajirotutu, and Crayton, assuming Jackson is gone.

 

[Bob Magaw]

especially those picked in first three rounds...baldwin, cobb, smith, little, etc.factoring in opportunity as well as talent, of course...

I can only speak on greg little because I know his situation and skill set best. IMO he is a perfect fit for a west coast offense. He will get the opportunity from day 1 to be the guy there. He is big, strong, and ferocious after the catch. Long term I like him as much as green and jones. (that might be a little much, I know)

one thing you have to like about little is he is new to the position, he could have massive upside... he has been compared by bloom to boldin (among others - marshall & boston) for his physicality and RAC ability... boldin was a prep QB & played some there in college... in retrospect he had a lot of head room for improvement with eventual refinement...some reports called him a diva... this isn't synonomous with lacking work ethic (TO)... is he known as a hard worker... is there a sense that he loves the game and has the desire to be great? in a broader sense extending to the entire 2nd-3rd tier (gates, hankerson, etc.), any intel on things to like or dislike in the character/work ethic department, off field red flags (read to the end of the brochure before selecting the next pre-reemergence BMW, mo clarett WR analogue)... baldwin has been dinged in this context (but KC liked him enough to take him in the first)...glad you mentioned green & jones... i just figured that they aren't secrets, but comparing how the second tier stacks up against them (and possibly any attendant concerns about the consensus top two) could absolutely be very useful in weighing their relative value, and would be germane to the thread's purpose...does baldwin have the skill set to be an eventual WR1 (or strong WR2) if bowe weren't re-signed in future (not sure how realistic this is seeing how bowe broke out last year)... is he more of a strictly deep/red zone threat (maybe somewhat like malcolm floyd), lacking a well rounded game to be anything more than a situational weapon they throw to 3-4 X a game...does cobb have the talent and skill set to translate well to the NFL... even if his initial role is as a slot guy, is he expected to eventually start opposite jennings (driver ancient, looks like jones may be gone, jordy nelson may not be as talented)... he seems to have similar measurables/pedigree to jennings... similar to jones having matt ryan, HAVE to like the QB situation...titus young is #31 on bloom's hot off the presses post-draft top 100... i was thinking that other than desean jackson, not a lot of WRs that dimunitive set the league on fire... any cause to think he might beat the odds?does torrey smith have the skill set to be a complete WR, or as in the question asked above about baldwin, does he have the look of a one trick pony deep threat... can he go inside (they have boldin for that now, but he has broken down at times in the past, and his violent running style could lead to an injury-shortened career) and run the route tree?vincent brown has been debated elsewhere, about how good his opportunity is (or isn't) this year... how does his intrinsic talent grade out?what comp players come to mind for these prospects (bloom already ventured some for little)...i'll try and get some highlights up in the near future...* and thanx for the great breakdown above and beyond the call of duty, tick...

 

[Kleck]

Rough top 10 list right now:

Green

Julio

Cobb

Baldwin

Little

Hankerson

Brown

Smith

Gates

Young

and probably a few more I could stick in this tier...

 

[eaglesfan7]

Rough top 10 list right now:GreenJulioCobb BaldwinLittle HankersonBrownSmithGatesYoungand probably a few more I could stick in this tier...

Kleck,please go ahead and stick a few more in that tier. the more the better...

 

[Wadsworth]

While certainly not a top tier guy or close to it at this point, keep an eye on Cecil Shorts in Jacksonville. With Sims-Walker gone there's not a lot of competition for targets outside of Mike Thomas at the WR position. Shorts is a smart kid with great hands and an outstanding work ethic who fell into a decent situation.

 

[Kleck]

does cobb have the talent and skill set to translate well to the NFL... even if his initial role is as a slot guy, is he expected to eventually start opposite jennings (driver ancient, looks like jones may be gone, jordy nelson may not be as talented)... he seems to have similar measurables/pedigree to jennings... similar to jones having matt ryan, HAVE to like the QB situation...

I believe so. Cobb will need to work on a few of his routes, but I think his run after catch abilities are a perfect fit for the quick slant and the quick out, which Green Bay loves to run. Cobb doesn't appear to be afraid of taking hits or going over the middle either. McCarthy will find way to get him involved, the Packers new WR Coach is Edgar Bennett, former Packer RB and RB Coach, so that could lead to some interesting use of Cobb's skills and designed plays for him too. This was just one of those draft picks that I thought made perfect sense when it was called.

 

[Couch Potato]

While certainly not a top tier guy or close to it at this point, keep an eye on Cecil Shorts in Jacksonville. With Sims-Walker gone there's not a lot of competition for targets outside of Mike Thomas at the WR position. Shorts is a smart kid with great hands and an outstanding work ethic who fell into a decent situation.

Shorts went to Garcon's school, Mt Union, and was a better player. In the mold of Welker/Collie/Shipley, and Salas this year, not blessed with amazing physical attributes, just knows how to get open and will catch the ball. Most valuable in PPR leagues.

 

[Kleck]

Rough top 10 list right now:GreenJulioCobb BaldwinLittle HankersonBrownSmithGatesYoungand probably a few more I could stick in this tier...

Kleck,please go ahead and stick a few more in that tier. the more the better...

Salas would be in there. I liked Salas better than Pettis before the draft so I'll still with that for now. Probably Cecil Shorts too.

 

[Bob Magaw]

does cobb have the talent and skill set to translate well to the NFL... even if his initial role is as a slot guy, is he expected to eventually start opposite jennings (driver ancient, looks like jones may be gone, jordy nelson may not be as talented)... he seems to have similar measurables/pedigree to jennings... similar to jones having matt ryan, HAVE to like the QB situation...

I believe so. Cobb will need to work on a few of his routes, but I think his run after catch abilities are a perfect fit for the quick slant and the quick out, which Green Bay loves to run. Cobb doesn't appear to be afraid of taking hits or going over the middle either. McCarthy will find way to get him involved, the Packers new WR Coach is Edgar Bennett, former Packer RB and RB Coach, so that could lead to some interesting use of Cobb's skills and designed plays for him too. This was just one of those draft picks that I thought made perfect sense when it was called.

thanx for the insights, kleck...i definitely like the landing spot, and could be a great convergence of talent & (eventual) opportunity...

 

[Bob Magaw]

some highlights...

jonathan baldwin (chiefs - 1.27)