*I think a veteran QB makes sense. While I like Cassell I'm still not sure he's ready to be the legit #2 this year. He could be ready for that role but there's zero downside to having some veteran insurance just in case. Also, in a very worst case scenario (i.e. Brady and Cassell go down) they have nothing currently at #3.
I think Belichick might be tempted to keep only two and have the extra roster spot to play with, but I agree with you - it's a big roll of the dice, and keeping only 2 QBs could definitely come back to bite them. I'm very surprised there isn't even a veteran in camp to compete for the #2 job. I thought for sure that we'd end up signing Jay Fiedler.
*I think Pass is a lock as well. He looked good last year. He's versatile in that he can run, catch, block, play both RB positions and contributes on special teams. As for Evans it will be tough. He helped last year but the fact he doesn't contribute on special teams makes it that much more difficult for him to stick.
I'm not sure if Pass is a lock. His versatility is obviously his biggest strength, but if Mills can take over the FB role and Willie Andrews can establish himself as a reliable return man, it's tough to figure where Pass would fit in. He did show that he could contribute in many different ways last season, but with Dillon, Faulk, and Moroney locks to make the roster at RB, I think Pass may find himself fighting very hard to make this team (which, of course, is nothing new to him). Another factor to consider with the Pass/Andrews angle is that in case of injury, I think it's far more difficult to find a serviceable defensive back than it is to find a serviceable RB, which would seem to work in Andrews's favor.
I don't see Evans making the team, and certainly not ahead of Pass.
*I think Caldwell starts off as the #2. As to who finishes up as the #2 is open for debate. So far reports on both Caldwell and Jax have been good which is a very positive sign. Yet, both players are currently unknown quantities until you see them in live game action. If they both work out this will bode very well for the Pats as their WR depth was horrible last year as both Givens and Troy were hurt for awhile and stiffs like Dwight, Davis and Bethel did very little. As for Branch, I think he plays. He has a year left to free agency and it makes sense for him to be on the field and producing. The better numbers he puts up the bigger payday he's looking at if the Pats don't extend him.
I pretty much agree with what you've said here. However, if Jackson can outplay Caldwell in the preseason, Belichick has shown that he is not afraid to start rookies. The depth here is somewhat troublesome. I heard the team has even made inquiries to Kevin Johnson, who is still recovering from an injury.I think you are going to see an awful lot of 3 TE sets this season, with Watson, Graham, and Dave Thomas all on the field together. The potential to create mismatches with that personnel grouping is extremely high.
*My biggest concern with the Pats is front 7 depth. As far as the D-line goes there's a myth that the Pats are deep there. They have fantastic four in Seymour, Wilfork, Warren and Green. Afer that it's a monster question mark. So far, Hill has shown nothing. He was drafted as a project but it's been two years and he's yet to make a mark and has been no stranger to injuries. Physically he's a giant and has athletic skills. Unless he totally craps out in camp I think he makes the team but he's on probation as far as his Patriot career is concerned. Klecko just hasn't found his niche. He plays his balls off but right now he's nothing more than a end of roster, depth guy who's best bet to make the team is the lack of depth up front. Sullivan is a complete question mark and his arrest is very troublesome. My guess is you'll know his fate by what type of shape he's in when camp starts. The guy I'm crossing my fingers on is the kid from Nebraska. He was an extremely productive player in a tough conference so hopefully the Pats get another late round steal here because they really need the depth.
I'm with you on LeKevin Smith. If he can come right in and contribute, it would provide a nice boost for the team. Jeremy Mincey has also gotten some looks at DE. I'm also interested to see what last year's surprise in camp, Mike Wright, looks like this season. With these three young players in camp, I think Hill and Klecko may end up battling it out for one roster spot. I also agree with you that Sullivan had better show up in the best shape of his career, or he will have a very hard time making the team. It is worth noting, however, that the Pats had him playing with the first string in the 4-3 (with Seymour, Wilfork, and Warren), although that was probably just to give him a look (hard to believe he'd be higher on the depth chart right now than Jarvis Green).
*Dbacks (I'm guessing they keep 10):
Definites:
Harrison
Wilson
Sanders
Gay
Samuel
Hobbs
After that my take is:
Atrell Hawkins-Played very well last year all things considered. If he picks up where he left off he'll make the team and contribute.
Willie Andrews-He makes the team and becomes an explosive return man.
Eric Warfield/Chad Scott-I heard Warfield didn't look good at the last camp, hopefully we're not looking at Duane Starks part 2. Since both guys can play CB and S their versatility helps. It wouldn't surprise me if both made it or both got cut. These are two guys who's preseason performance will make or break them.
Mel Mitchell/Tebucky/Gus Scott-Another competition. For Mitchell to make it he needs to really excel on special teams. Since TBuck helps in both areas he'll probably make the team unless he's lost a step. As for Scott I have to believe he's on very thin ice and unless he shines in camp he could be looking for a new team.
Poteat/Vetrone-Unless there's injuries I don't see it happening.
I think Hawkins definitely makes the team. In fact, I'll take it a step further: I think he starts at safety if Harrison is unable to begin the season. From his versatility to his leadership, I think Belichick really likes what Hawkins brings to the table.Willie Andrews probably has a good shot at a roster spot if he is even a serviceable defensive back. The team would love to have someone who can really bring something to the return game. I think it goes without saying that they don't want to continue to bring Troy Brown out to return punts at this stage in his career. What happens with Andrews will probably have a strong influence on whether or not Patrick Pass makes the team; it will also be interesting to see if Kevin Faulk is used more as a return man this season.
I agree with Warfield and Scott, although I think Scott probably has a slightly better chance at making the team, having been in the system for a year. I also heard the same thing about Warfield not looking very good in camp. Just an aside, but did Starks end up signing on with anyone?
I think your assessments of Mitchell, Tebucky, Gus Scott, Poteat, and Ventrone were right on, although I would probably pick Mitchell as the favorite to make the team out of that group right now.
*Gramatica sticks if ski sucks in camp. If he doesn't the Pats have their kicker in the fourth rounder out of Memphis. It's that simple.
I agree, the rookie is going to have to really, really blow it for him to not get the job.