Patrick Mahomes 2019 Outlook (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

He was the league MVP in his first year as a starter and produced 5097/50 passing last year. However, QB's that had other big passing totals typically had a noticeable drop off the following season.

Of the 12 quarterbacks that had 40 TD passes in a season, their average total went from 45 TDs to 26 passes. However, that includes Tom Brady gong from 50 to 0. If we use his following season instead (28 TDs), then the average would be 29.

In the 9 instances where a quarterback threw for 5,000 yards in a season, that total seemed to stay a little higher (dropping from an average of 5,214 yards to  4,741 yards). However, Drew Brees accounted for 5 of those 9 seasons (and retained a lot of passing yardage based on a high volume of passing attempts).

Other than Brady, the other guys stayed relatively healthy from one year to the next and didn't miss a ton of time. 

What do folks see Mahomes producing this year? (I realize the Hill situation makes things a bit murky at the moment.) Even if Hill is available for the entire season, is anyone concerned that most guys have tended to slide the following year after a big season?

If Mahomes stuck to the "average" Year X+1 production totals, he would have ranked 4th in passing yards and tied for 12th in passing TDs. Certainly that would still be a great season, but nowhere near as dominant fantasy wise. He's universally getting drafted as the first fantasy off the board, and IMO, I'm not sure anyone wants to be the guy to take any QB as the first one selected in a redraft league.

 

[bostonfred]

I agree that he's likely to have significant regression.  A lot of the games kc played were comebacks - mahomes had more second half touchdowns (24 vs 26 in the 1st half) than brady (18 vs 32) or manning in either of his big seasons, and both regressed significantly.  Empirically, i remember kc getting behind early and then catching up in the second half, but i might be remembering wrong. 

 

[bostonfred]

Of the 12 quarterbacks that had 40 TD passes in a season, their average total went from 45 TDs to 26 passes. However, that includes Tom Brady gong from 50 to 0. If we use his following season instead (28 TDs), then the average would be 29.

As a side note - i've found that this phrasing sounds biased, even though i know you're not.  Saying it the opposite way - the total goes from 45 to 29, or 26 if you include brady 2008 - seems like you're leading with the cleaner data and following up with the clarification. 

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I have never been one to put much (if any) weight into what some other guys did or didn't do on different teams with different teammates with different coaches with different free agent acquisitions/losses, draft picks, etc. and use it to somehow predict what a certain player will or won't do now/next year.....IMO what Brees or Brady did or didn't do in their +1 year will have absolutely NOTHING to do with what Mahomes does or doesn't do next year...IMO, this has always been one of the most overused and meaningless comparisons tools in fantasy....but thats just IMO.....when it comes time to pull the trigger or not pull the trigger on Mahomes this year, I will not be thinking about what Brady or Brees did in their +1 years...

with that said....teams will a have full year of film to study to see what the Chiefs did with Mahomes and it will be up to Reid to try and stay a step ahead if they want to have similar offensive success....so to me, that is the biggest question ......do you have confidence in Reid to keep adding wrinkles that keep putting this offense in position to almost seem unstoppable....I think at some point there is only so much you can do and you start running out of wrinkles...so I am expecting some regression....but not much....I also feel their defense will be better, so not as many shootouts, although I think they will still keep their foot on the gas even when ahead....

KC has a tough schedule...they will need to lean on Mahomes....he is their best option even though I think the running game will be underrated this year....I think he will be option A still in the red zone...especially down around the 10 or so.....I think Reid's mentality will lean towards taking 3 cracks with Mahomes most times instead of running it 2 times and then asking Mahomes to "do something" on 3rd down, so I think the TD's will still be there....I think 40 to 45 TD's is still possible....lots of "big" games and national TV games.....Chiefs have players that like that spotlight....

I have more confidence in Robinson and Hardman, etc. then most....and how Williams will perform/can catch the ball....so I'm probably a little more optimistic than most....

he will and should be the #1 QB taken in every draft...(although I think Luck has a big year too)...and in most leagues there will be at least one guy who will be as optimistic and chase last years stats....I don't expect him to make it out of the .second round in 12 team 6 point per TD leagues.....what made him so great last year is you got him dirt cheap and were able to load up elsewhere before drafting him late.....that won't happen this year and the value takes a hit....yet he will still give your team a chance to win almost every week unless you crap the bed with the rest of your draft....if you have confidence in your ability to actually draft and acquire talent/value/sleepers elsewhere he is a great way to start a draft....if you are not a very good drafter, he might not be the QB for you....

 

[cloppbeast]

It's very difficult to have 50 passing tds, a product of not only great quarterback play but also wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends. No QB ever puts together a great season by himself. His surroundings will change every year, which we're seeing it now in Kansas City with Tyreek Hill's drama. If Hill doesn't play, I don't see Mahomes getting close to repeating 2018, although I would expect more than 26 or 29 TDs though.

 

[Anarchy99]

he will and should be the #1 QB taken in every draft...

History does not agree with you. This probably is better suited for a different thread on where to draft a fantasy a QB, but . . .

Here is a simple chart outlining the first fantasy QB selected each year based on MFL's ADP for the past 20 years. The first number is the ADP draft spot OVERALL while the second column is the YEAR END end positional QB ranking. A better way to do this would be to list the actual VBD score and VBD ranking for these guys, but I didn't have the time or the energy to research all that.

2018 Rodgers 22 7
2017 Brady 22 2
2016 Newton 18 16
2015 Luck 9 28
2014 Manning 10 4
2013 Rodgers 15 26
2012 Rodgers 3 2
2011 Rodgers 8 2
2010 Rodgers 7 1
2009 Brees 11 2
2008 Brady 6 60
2007 Manning 8 3
2006 Manning 8 1
2005 Manning 5 3
2004 Manning 13 2
2003 McNabb 15 13
2002 Warner 7 40
2001 Culpepper 5 15
2000 Manning 6 3
1999 Favre 7 6


Only twice in 20 years has the #1 drafted fantasy QB ended the season as the #1 ranked fantasy QB. Unless that player has a huge value score again and a season that laps most other QBs, even ranking highly would make taking a QB in the first round not a great strategic move (which essentially happened in 14 of the seasons I just listed for the first QB off the board). Better stated, Mahomes would need to produce another season like last year (if not better) to make it worth taking him where he will most likely get drafted (currently 13th overall).

 

[kutta]

History does not agree with you. This probably is better suited for a different thread on where to draft a fantasy a QB, but . . .

Here is a simple chart outlining the first fantasy QB selected each year based on MFL's ADP for the past 20 years. The first number is the ADP draft spot OVERALL while the second column is the YEAR END end positional QB ranking. A better way to do this would be to list the actual VBD score and VBD ranking for these guys, but I didn't have the time or the energy to research all that.

2018 Rodgers 22 7
2017 Brady 22 2
2016 Newton 18 16
2015 Luck 9 28
2014 Manning 10 4
2013 Rodgers 15 26
2012 Rodgers 3 2
2011 Rodgers 8 2
2010 Rodgers 7 1
2009 Brees 11 2
2008 Brady 6 60
2007 Manning 8 3
2006 Manning 8 1
2005 Manning 5 3
2004 Manning 13 2
2003 McNabb 15 13
2002 Warner 7 40
2001 Culpepper 5 15
2000 Manning 6 3
1999 Favre 7 6


Only once in 20 years has the #1 drafted fantasy QB ended the season as the #1 ranked fantasy QB. Unless that player has a huge value score again and a season that laps most other QBs, even ranking highly would make taking a QB in the first round not a great strategic move (which essentially happened in 14 of the seasons I just listed for the first QB off the board). Better stated, Mahomes would need to produce another season like last year (if not better) to make it worth taking him where he will most likely get drafted (currently 13th overall).

When you draft a QB early and as the first QB off the board, you’re not necessarily expecting him to be the top QB that year. As long as he’s top 3, or even top 5, you’ve probably done pretty well. That means you don’t have to worry about the QB position all year, and you don’t have to carry more than one on your roster. According to your numbers, the top QB off the board was top five11 times, and top three 10 times. That’s pretty good.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

he will and should be the #1 QB taken in every draft...(although I think Luck has a big year too)...and in most leagues there will be at least one guy who will be as optimistic and chase last years stats....I don't expect him to make it out of the .second round in 12 team 6 point per TD leagues.....what made him so great last year is you got him dirt cheap and were able to load up elsewhere before drafting him late.....that won't happen this year and the value takes a hit....yet he will still give your team a chance to win almost every week unless you crap the bed with the rest of your draft....if you have confidence in your ability to actually draft and acquire talent/value/sleepers elsewhere he is a great way to start a draft....if you are not a very good drafter, he might not be the QB for you....

Because you have to be a very good drafter to stay competitive after shooting yourself in the foot by taking a QB in the early 2nd? 

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

When you draft a QB early and as the first QB off the board, you’re not necessarily expecting him to be the top QB that year. As long as he’s top 3, or even top 5, you’ve probably done pretty well. That means you don’t have to worry about the QB position all year, and you don’t have to carry more than one on your roster. According to your numbers, the top QB off the board was top five 11 times, and top three 10 times. That’s pretty good.

A very salient point. League and roster sizes matter more with questions like these than people think.

In smaller leagues (e.g. 8 teams), every week is a battle of studs vs. studs; if you don't have a stud at every skill position, you'll be behind the 8-ball to those who do. This argues for reaching at QB and TE (and PK and DST, too, to some extent) more than a simple VBD calculation would provide for. In larger leagues (e.g. 16 teams), the opportunity cost of going QB early far outweighs the marginal extra VBD an elite QB gives you over a replacement starter (as the PPG difference between QB8 and QB16, even in 6-pt formats, is quite small).

By the same token, in very short-bench leagues the need for an extra roster spot makes playing matchups at the start-1 positions cost-prohibitive, which lends additional value to the "set and forget" QBs and TEs. In deep leagues, I can draft 2 or even 3 QBs, play the matchups, and approximate elite-level production without having to cut my sleepers or miss out on WW darlings.

Neither of the above is meant to justify reaching into the 2nd round for Mahomes when you can get Luck or Watson in the 5th-6th - but, if you must engage in such folly, at least pick your spots league-wise.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

IMO, this has always been one of the most overused and meaningless comparisons tools in fantasy....

It's called statistics and/or probability.

I agree he should be the first QB off the board but he shouldn't be overdrafted based on last year.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

When you draft a QB early and as the first QB off the board, you’re not necessarily expecting him to be the top QB that year. As long as he’s top 3, or even top 5, you’ve probably done pretty well. That means you don’t have to worry about the QB position all year, and you don’t have to carry more than one on your roster. According to your numbers, the top QB off the board was top five11 times, and top three 10 times. That’s pretty good.

and I didn't check, but I would imagine some of those finishes outside the top 10 were do to something like an injury or something where they didn't play all 16...

 

[Stinkin Ref]

A very salient point. League and roster sizes matter more with questions like these than people think.

In smaller leagues (e.g. 8 teams), every week is a battle of studs vs. studs; if you don't have a stud at every skill position, you'll be behind the 8-ball to those who do. This argues for reaching at QB and TE (and PK and DST, too, to some extent) more than a simple VBD calculation would provide for. In larger leagues (e.g. 16 teams), the opportunity cost of going QB early far outweighs the marginal extra VBD an elite QB gives you over a replacement starter (as the PPG difference between QB8 and QB16, even in 6-pt formats, is quite small).

By the same token, in very short-bench leagues the need for an extra roster spot makes playing matchups at the start-1 positions cost-prohibitive, which lends additional value to the "set and forget" QBs and TEs. In deep leagues, I can draft 2 or even 3 QBs, play the matchups, and approximate elite-level production without having to cut my sleepers or miss out on WW darlings.

Neither of the above is meant to justify reaching into the 2nd round for Mahomes when you can get Luck or Watson in the 5th-6th - but, if you must engage in such folly, at least pick your spots league-wise.

much of this excellent post is pin worthy....

I do however personally disagree with the bolded.....IMO....I think there is something to be said for an automatic set and forget at QB even in deeper leagues....weekly WDIS decisions suck...especially if you are deciding between like Dalton/Darnold/Prescott or something.....breaking down those matchups every week would suck....plus you are still wasting roster spots that you could be using on handcuff home runs etc that could be league winning game changers that you don't have to race to the WW and hope to acquire (think Damien Williams last year).....if your team is any good, your WW position should suck each week so you are going to miss on those WW darlings.....but if you just carry one stud QB, that WW darling could already be on your roster instead of carrying Trubisky all year or something...

 

[Stinkin Ref]

History does not agree with you. This probably is better suited for a different thread on where to draft a fantasy a QB, but . . .

I would agree its kind of a different conversation.....but even with some expected regression and lets say "no Hill".....he will still go as QB#1 off the board probably in 95% of the leagues....where he should go in column #1 is most certainly debatable...

 

[Anarchy99]

Here is the same chart I posted earlier but with the values added in. The third column now lists value points and the last column now lists overall value ranking.

2018 Rodgers 22 7 30 43
2017 Brady 22 2 41 28
2016 Newton 18 16 0 N/A
2015 Luck 9 28 0 N/A
2014 Manning 10 4 47 32
2013 Rodgers 15 26 0 N/A
2012 Rodgers 3 2 93 9
2011 Rodgers 8 2 171 1
2010 Rodgers 7 1 75 17
2009 Brees 11 2 70 15
2008 Brady 6 60 0 N/A
2007 Manning 8 3 59 22
2006 Manning 8 1 122 4
2005 Manning 5 3 38 32
2004 Manning 13 2 129 5
2003 McNabb 15 13 0 N/A
2002 Warner 7 40 0 N/A
2001 Culpepper 5 15 0 N/A
2000 Manning 6 3 99 14
1999 Favre 7 6 66 21


Sure, some of these guys got injured Like Brady in 2008 and Warner for a short stretch in 2002. But most of them played and just did not perform as well. So the past 20 #1 QB's delivered first round value 4 times.

I disagree with those that are suggesting that if you draft the #1 QB overall and he ranks 5th you are still doing fine. IMO, that's a recipe to miss the playoffs. Even though a QB may have a decent ranking, he may not always deliver much value (especially when taken as the #1 QB and many times very early in the draft. Clearly individual league parameters can dramatically alter any analysis. I am using standard roster and starting configuration with standard scoring parameters.

As others have mentioned, since there are usually a lot fewer fantasy starters at QB than there are at RB and WR, many times there are late round gems that may be available and/or mix and match match up options that may not be as prevalent at other positions.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Here is the same chart I posted earlier but with the values added in. The third column now lists value points and the last column now lists overall value ranking.

2018 Rodgers 22 7 30 43
2017 Brady 22 2 41 28
2016 Newton 18 16 0 N/A
2015 Luck 9 28 0 N/A
2014 Manning 10 4 47 32
2013 Rodgers 15 26 0 N/A
2012 Rodgers 3 2 93 9
2011 Rodgers 8 2 171 1
2010 Rodgers 7 1 75 17
2009 Brees 11 2 70 15
2008 Brady 6 60 0 N/A
2007 Manning 8 3 59 22
2006 Manning 8 1 122 4
2005 Manning 5 3 38 32
2004 Manning 13 2 129 5
2003 McNabb 15 13 0 N/A
2002 Warner 7 40 0 N/A
2001 Culpepper 5 15 0 N/A
2000 Manning 6 3 99 14
1999 Favre 7 6 66 21


Sure, some of these guys got injured Like Brady in 2008 and Warner for a short stretch in 2002. But most of them played and just did not perform as well. So the past 20 #1 QB's delivered first round value 4 times.

I disagree with those that are suggesting that if you draft the #1 QB overall and he ranks 5th you are still doing fine. IMO, that's a recipe to miss the playoffs. Even though a QB may have a decent ranking, he may not always deliver much value (especially when taken as the #1 QB and many times very early in the draft. Clearly individual league parameters can dramatically alter any analysis. I am using standard roster and starting configuration with standard scoring parameters.

As others have mentioned, since there are usually a lot fewer fantasy starters at QB than there are at RB and WR, many times there are late round gems that may be available and/or mix and match match up options that may not be as prevalent at other positions.

to be fair....in addition to the Brady and Warner that you mention about injury....Luck only played 7 games in 2015.....Rodgers 9 in 2013....and Culpepper 11 in 2001.....so there is a pretty good explanation for many of the outliers outside the top 10 in the list above.....most of the rest finished easily in top 7 with many top 3 or better....

so yeah drafting the guy #1 doesn't guarantee you #1 production....but outside of an injury it does kind of give you darn near top 5 assurance....its up to the individual to decide how much that is worth....which is another discussion...

I haven't really wrapped my head around the last two columns that you added....

Mahommes is probably about as close as you can get to a top 5 lock moving forward....that piece of mind will be worth it to somebody in almost every league of 12+ plus teams in the second round....it will just be whether that guy is you or not.....

 

[Anarchy99]

to be fair....in addition to the Brady and Warner that you mention about injury....Luck only played 7 games in 2015.....Rodgers 9 in 2013....and Culpepper 11 in 2001.....so there is a pretty good explanation for many of the outliers outside the top 10 in the list above.....most of the rest finished easily in top 7 with many top 3 or better....

so yeah drafting the guy #1 doesn't guarantee you #1 production....but outside of an injury it does kind of give you darn near top 5 assurance....its up to the individual to decide how much that is worth....which is another discussion...

I haven't really wrapped my head around the last two columns that you added....

Mahommes is probably about as close as you can get to a top 5 lock moving forward....that piece of mind will be worth it to somebody in almost every league of 12+ plus teams in the second round....it will just be whether that guy is you or not.....

Of all the people i would have thought would have "gotten it," you would have been at or near the top of the list. Where someone ranks, in and of itself, is nowhere near as important as their relative value. For example, drafting the first kicker off the board and having him rank as the first kicker is one thing. But if you took him in the second round, it would be a terrible pick.

Similarly, if a QB ranked in the Top 7, as you suggested, and the guys in front of him did WAYYYYY better and there was a group behind him that BARELLLLLY did worse than him, that would end up being not such a great pick. That's part of the problem with QBs in general. Too much is dependent on how the other top QBs will do by the end of the year. We at least know what fantasy production is needed to rank as one of the top RBs and WRs and what it will take to score points wise by the end of the year to rank really high. We can't really say that as much about QBs. Peyton had years where he ended up as the #1 fantasy QB where he set all time passing records and lapped the field. He ended other years as the #1 fantasy QB where he was barely better than several other QBs and his relative value was peanuts. IMO, no way are those the similar outcomes just because he ranked #1 in both situations.

This is essentially why I started this thread on Mahomes. No doubt he will be the #1 QB selected in most redraft leagues. Let's say his fantasy scoring total dips by 20% from last year. He'd still have a strong season, but based on last year's numbers he would finish 5th. With the numbers he had last year, he scored 143 value points last year compared to the #12 QB (when he was drafted as the QB15) using the FBG numbers and scoring system. Let's say he gets 80% of those numbers this year (and everyone else performs the same as last year), he would score only 47 value points (when he would have been drafted as QB1).

The first example would be similar to buying a house for $100,000 and then selling it for $500,000. The second example would be buying a house for $500,000 and then selling it for $400,000. Yet you want to shout out to people that, "Hurray! I sold my house for $400,000!"

 

[Stinkin Ref]

think we are having a bunch of different discussions all at once...and I probably shouldn't have even made my last post or at least just stopped after talking about the other guys that were hurt.....because I don't even really draft/develop my teams/think about a lot of these things when I am OTC so I shouldn't comment about things I don't know about or factor in...in my mind in most drafts I am probably using some crack cocaine influenced version of VBD that would make Joe Bryant's head explode....and obviously I can't be held accountable for what happens in the Mock Draft Forum as that is not a fair representation of normal strategy (especially when it comes to Mahomes)....

anyway...back to the original title....Mahomes 2019 Outlook....how about 4500/45....whats that worth....  ....think it's QB1 off the board, not sure what round, (rounds don't really matter to me, but think somebody will take him in second)...which isn't great value by any means (unless you factor in things besides points... like not having to draft another one really until picking somebody up for week 12 and using the QB2 spot elsewhere on a potential home run or something, not having to worry about WDIS questions, etc)....I think I crunched some numbers and posted them in one of the other Mahomes threads, think I even started it where last year Mahomes on average gave you at least a full TD advantage over the QB field and 2 TD advantage over other position players....in a 6 point 12 team league it seems reasonable that he is a 3rd or 4th round pick (so 25-48) but I think you have to take him in the (13-24) range if you want him.....some guys are crazy and will wayyyy overdraft him....

 

[Stinkin Ref]

if you don't have to draft 2-3 QB's....and let's say you just take Mahomes....and that allows you to take other players where you would have normally taken your QB2 and or QB3....and one of those guys hits, let's say a Connor, or Carson, or Woods, or Cohen or somebody.....it's kind of hard to factor in that added benefit to your team in terms of VBD....VBD may  slam you at its core for taking Mahomes in the second round.....but if you were able to improve your weekly starting lineup at other positions because you didn't have to take a second or third QB....whats that worth....?....are we allowed to somehow factor that back in to Mahomes value?..... ...yeah you would also say it the other way that you could have improved your team elsewhere with somebody else/other position in the second and then Rivers or somebody later and you can see what would have paid off the most....but we don't ever really announce "this is where I would normally be taking my QB2, but since I have Mahomes, I am taking Chris Carson"....after the fact it's easy to do the other way, but not so much this way....that probably made zero sense to anybody else....if so, try some crack and you will "get it"....

 

[kutta]

if you don't have to draft 2-3 QB's....and let's say you just take Mahomes....and that allows you to take other players where you would have normally taken your QB2 and or QB3....and one of those guys hits, let's say a Connor, or Carson, or Woods, or Cohen or somebody.....it's kind of hard to factor in that added benefit to your team in terms of VBD....VBD may  slam you at its core for taking Mahomes in the second round.....but if you were able to improve your weekly starting lineup at other positions because you didn't have to take a second or third QB....whats that worth....?....are we allowed to somehow factor that back in to Mahomes value?..... ...yeah you would also say it the other way that you could have improved your team elsewhere with somebody else/other position in the second and then Rivers or somebody later and you can see what would have paid off the most....but we don't ever really announce "this is where I would normally be taking my QB2, but since I have Mahomes, I am taking Chris Carson"....after the fact it's easy to do the other way, but not so much this way....that probably made zero sense to anybody else....if so, try some crack and you will "get it"....

I totally agree. There are times I will draft a QB early. Sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't. But the one constant is that in rounds 8-10 when everyone else is taking two QB's, I'm stocking up on RB's and WR's that might pay off.

It's just about impossible to quantify that value. While I agree, that as a general principle, you are mostly better off waiting on a QB, I also see the allure of drafting a guy like Mahomes/Rodgers/Manning early and being pretty much assured of top 5 QB production and freeing up space in the mid rounds for extra WR/RB tickets.

 

[Anarchy99]

Mahomes numbers dropped off some when comparing his first 12 games to his last 6 games. That somewhat coincides with Hunt getting booting off the team.

First 12 games: 327 yards, 3.42 TD per game.
Last 6 games: 291 yards, 2 TD per game.

To put that into perspective, his first 12 games his production was that of best QB season ever (2013 Peyton Manning) . . . a pace for 5232/55 (Manning had 5477/55).
His last 6 games, his production was similar to 2018 Jared Goff . . . a pace for 4656/32 (Goff had 4688/32 last year and ended the year ranked as the QB6).

As another comparison, in my initial post the drop off the following year for the all time best passing yardage seasons was an average of 10%. The difference between 327 yards and 291 yards passing is 11%. In Year X+1 for the all time great passing TD seasons (using Brady's 2009 campaign with 28 TDs), the average drop off was 37%. The drop off from 3.42 TD passes per game to 2 TD per game is 37%.

I don't have the time to do a deeper dive to see if the schedule was tougher down the stretch, if weather played a factor, or if there were injuries to guys on the offense when they were healthier in the earlier games. Maybe the league adjusted some. Maybe Mahomes just wasn't as effective. Maybe they ran more. Who knows.

I will go out on a limb and suggest that the loss of Hunt was probably the biggest factor in the lower passing numbers and maybe that 4656/32 projection might be more of a baseline for Mahomes with Hunt no longer on the team. If Hill misses a big chunk of time, I would guess those numbers will suffer even more. At that point in the rankings, the difference between Goff (#6 QB) and Tom Brady (#12 QB) was only 34 fantasy points. If Hill misses extended time, Mahomes may end up producing at a QB 8-10 rate.

In redraft leagues, someone is going to be itching to take Mahomes as early as their first pick. I'm pretty sure in most leagues he won't make much beyond the mid point of the second round even in leagues with owners that should no better. I am starting to like Mahomes less and less for next year.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

think you mentioned above that Mahomes is currently going off at 13 overall....which is kind of weird but if you think about it makes some sense considering in a 12 teamer, the 12 hole knows that the 13th pick (2.01) is that persons last chance to snag him....he ain't making it to 3.12.....so I think you will continue to see him hover around that area even if he doesn't "deserve" it, because he won't usually make it to the third in any draft....there will always be that one person that takes him in the second....with the Hill news, he may drop a little....but probably not much....

I feel that even in an "expert" league where everybody should "know better"....while he may get picked a little later, it will still be earlier than most "experts" would think, but then that owner ends up getting a guy that could "make a difference" in a league of experts where value doesn't fall and you can't usually make up for points later....nt liking him for next year will be a very popular opinion by many players, especially late QB guys.....lots of strategies can work.....there isn't a perfect one....thats what makes this hobby so fun....if everybody thought the same and did things chalk the same way, what fun would that be...?

 

[Anarchy99]

think you mentioned above that Mahomes is currently going off at 13 overall....which is kind of weird but if you think about it makes some sense considering in a 12 teamer, the 12 hole knows that the 13th pick (2.01) is that persons last chance to snag him....he ain't making it to 3.12.....so I think you will continue to see him hover around that area even if he doesn't "deserve" it, because he won't usually make it to the third in any draft....there will always be that one person that takes him in the second....with the Hill news, he may drop a little....but probably not much....

I feel that even in an "expert" league where everybody should "know better"....while he may get picked a little later, it will still be earlier than most "experts" would think, but then that owner ends up getting a guy that could "make a difference" in a league of experts where value doesn't fall and you can't usually make up for points later....nt liking him for next year will be a very popular opinion by many players, especially late QB guys.....lots of strategies can work.....there isn't a perfect one....thats what makes this hobby so fun....if everybody thought the same and did things chalk the same way, what fun would that be...?

As my kids like to tell me, when they were younger, they used to THINK they knew everything. Now that they are older, now they are sure they DO know everything.

 

[kutta]

Mahomes numbers dropped off some when comparing his first 12 games to his last 6 games. That somewhat coincides with Hunt getting booting off the team.

First 12 games: 327 yards, 3.42 TD per game.
Last 6 games: 291 yards, 2 TD per game.

To put that into perspective, his first 12 games his production was that of best QB season ever (2013 Peyton Manning) . . . a pace for 5232/55 (Manning had 5477/55).
His last 6 games, his production was similar to 2018 Jared Goff . . . a pace for 4656/32 (Goff had 4688/32 last year and ended the year ranked as the QB6).

As another comparison, in my initial post the drop off the following year for the all time best passing yardage seasons was an average of 10%. The difference between 327 yards and 291 yards passing is 11%. In Year X+1 for the all time great passing TD seasons (using Brady's 2009 campaign with 28 TDs), the average drop off was 37%. The drop off from 3.42 TD passes per game to 2 TD per game is 37%.

I don't have the time to do a deeper dive to see if the schedule was tougher down the stretch, if weather played a factor, or if there were injuries to guys on the offense when they were healthier in the earlier games. Maybe the league adjusted some. Maybe Mahomes just wasn't as effective. Maybe they ran more. Who knows.

I will go out on a limb and suggest that the loss of Hunt was probably the biggest factor in the lower passing numbers and maybe that 4656/32 projection might be more of a baseline for Mahomes with Hunt no longer on the team. If Hill misses a big chunk of time, I would guess those numbers will suffer even more. At that point in the rankings, the difference between Goff (#6 QB) and Tom Brady (#12 QB) was only 34 fantasy points. If Hill misses extended time, Mahomes may end up producing at a QB 8-10 rate.

In redraft leagues, someone is going to be itching to take Mahomes as early as their first pick. I'm pretty sure in most leagues he won't make much beyond the mid point of the second round even in leagues with owners that should no better. I am starting to like Mahomes less and less for next year.

That's really an arbritrary cutoff and leaves out two of his highest games of the year in weeks 11 and 13 for the "bad" stats. Hunt played in 11 and did not play in 13.

You can just as easily shift those stats up one or two games and the split looks pretty darn even.

For the regular season, because that's what we use in fantasy, and even including a pretty weak week 17:

Including week 11 stats in both beginning and end of year stats (passing yards, TD's, fantasy points):

Weeks 1-11:  330, 3.4, 35.1

Weeks 11-17: 325, 3.2, 33.8

NOT Including week 11 stats in both beginning and end of year stats (passing yards, TD's, fantasy points):

Weeks 1-10:  315, 3.1, 33.0

Weeks 12-17: 294, 2.6, 29.3

It's pretty obvious that week 11 is the key week because it was such a huge game. Whichever side you put that week on will look extra good.

But, his 29.3 points averaged from weeks 12-17, eliminating even the huge week 11, still puts him as the top fantasy QB in the league (Big Ben averaged 28).

 

[Tanner9919]

great information here , everyone! I  it seems like every time we have a spectacular feat like Mahomes 2018, we have a serious regression the following year. the argument that different players on different teams under different situations/coaches have no bearing on this situation is wrong in a sense. No one is saying Mahomes is Brady or Manning or LT2 for that matter. He's a guy who accomplished a great acheivement, the likes of which are seldom repeated, and almodt certainly not by the same player the following year.the one thing they all have in common is that without a doubt, the overwhelming evidence shows that in the history of sports,  feats like this are seldom,if ever, repeated/replicated by the same player - not just in year N+1 but ever again by the same player.

pick a sport, pick a player, they've almost ALL failed to repeat the following year.Sosa's HRs. McGwire. OJs 2k season. Tomlinson's historic RB season. Manning's record-setting year.Brady.Brees. it  doesnt matter how you get there, it's just set in stone that no player ever reproduces at such a clip the year after. It happens in baseball, soccer, hockey, football, etc.

we don't need to put a reason on it. it will happen again in 2019. I'll take the field , betting the farm that Mahomes finishes as a top 8 QB but nowhere near the stud he was last season. history proves he's likely to finish with a significant drop to about 4200 yards/30ish TDs.  I'll bet the farm that someone not named Mahomes leads the NFL in yards,td,etc in 2019 ( Andrew Luck maybe?). 

We keep repeating this topic every time we have a record-setting, or near record-setting season. every single time.

it's nonsense to think Mahomes will sniff 5k yards, 50 TD in 2019. I'll make a prop bet that 7 QBs will finish with more TD and more yards than Mahomes. No Hill. No-name WRs. No running game worth mentioning. Just Kelce and that's it. and a worn-out, played out  Andy Reid coaching  philosophy. you can bet teams have studied and figured out Mahomes. not betting on injury to happen, I'm betting that there's a mountain of evidence that says it's not happening in 2019, 'the year after'.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

saying Mahomes is in line for regression will be a very popular sentiment this summer....but it's not exactly going out on a limb....its kind of like saying Wilt won't score a 100 in his next game...I would expect projections for the amount of regression to be all over the map, as has already been indicated in this thread....if somebody were to be able to do it.....Mahomes seems to have the goods....40-45 with 4500 still seems doable to me.....

 

[Anarchy99]

saying Mahomes is in line for regression will be a very popular sentiment this summer....but it's not exactly going out on a limb....its kind of like saying Wilt won't score a 100 in his next game...I would expect projections for the amount of regression to be all over the map, as has already been indicated in this thread....if somebody were to be able to do it.....Mahomes seems to have the goods....40-45 with 4500 still seems doable to me.....

Only once in NFL history has a QB thrown 40+ TD passes in back-to-back seasons. That was Drew Brees in 2011 and 2012.

The main difference between Mahomes and Brees is it took Brees 657 and 670 attempts in those seasons. Mahomes had 580 attempts last year. I'm not saying it would be impossible for Mahomes to have 40-45 TD next season . . . I just think it is highly unlikely. IMO, 4500 passing yards seems a lot more attainable.

Part of the reasons things generally don't repeat themselves is a lot can change from one year to the next. The schedule, the way the ball bounces, the game situations, the game flow, how opponents defend KC, etc. That's just on the luck and strategy side. Then there's the health side. Mahomes could get a nagging injury. Hill could miss a lot of time. Other receivers or linemen could get hurt. Maybe the weather plays more of a role. In fact, history has shown over the years that things will be different for no other reason than they won't be the same.

Ask the Red Sox about how things can go differently from one year to the next. Boston won 108 games in 2018 and probably could have won more if they didn't coast to end the season. They brought back almost the same team and have not had many injuries, yet they are on pace to win 87 games this year.

If things go A LOT differently this year, it's conceivable KC doesn't even make the playoffs. The offense may not be as potent, the defense could still have issues, the running game clearly won't have Hunt at all this year, Hill could derail and detract from the entire team. Factor in that the Chargers are still considered one of the best teams in the AFC and OAK and DEN got better (at least on paper). They also play the AFC South and NFC North, both of which have mostly competitive teams. Combine all of that, the Chiefs may struggle some and have a bit of a let down this year.

Just as a comparison, the 12 other QB's that tossed 40+ TD's in a season saw the team's win total fall off from an average of 11.8 wins to 9.6 wins. Sure, some of that could be attributed to injuries but even healthy QB's saw their teams win less. We'll have to wait and see of course, but history has shown that we should see a decline. (The same effect has been seen in offenses that have scored 500+ points . . . regardless of the high passing TD element.)

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Andy Reid loves to throw the football....Mahomes is going to be slinging it in every game....the running game is nothing to write home about....IMO Mahomes can make average WR's really good....see Albert Wilson week 17 two years ago when he was about the only option on the field....Wilson almost earned a Pro Bowl nomination in one game.....the FBG staff that have made projections so far all pretty much have him with 4500 plus yards and the TD's are (35) Dodds, (41) Henry (34) Tremblay and (38) Norton....IMO in this offense and with this head coach (40) is VERY doable....Mahomes is option A and B on this team....they should still be in the red zone often and Mahomes has the trigger for tight windows....there were a few years there where it seemed like Favre had 8-10 one yard TD passes to Bubba Franks or something....my mind ventures there often for those expecting (15) plus less TD's....to get (40) he needs to average 2.5 TD's a game....the schedule may be tougher. although last year that 6 game stretch at the beginning was supposed to be "brutal" and he averaged 3 per game....Mahomes averaged 37 pass attempts a game last year.....that should continue...lots of things could go "differently" but assuming he and all his weapons are healthy and playing.....if you set the over/under at 40 I don't think its a slam dunk no brainer to take the under....many will point to teams "having a years worth of film, etc"....well Mahomes was really in his first year last year and he could get better as well....heck last year everybody thought he was going to be a "turnover machine", etc.....and he exceeded expectations (understatement)...I feel IMO he will do the same this year for those expecting a huge regression....

 

[zoonation]

Huge regression coming IMO.  It started to slide after they booted Hunt.  Without Hill, he won't be top 10 IMO.

He won't be on any of my teams given his ADP (and I rode him to championships in both my leagues last year).

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Huge regression coming IMO.  It started to slide after they booted Hunt.  Without Hill, he won't be top 10 IMO.

He won't be on any of my teams given his ADP (and I rode him to championships in both my leagues last year).

in the games without Hunt....he averaged 294/2.6.....which equates to 4704/42....

I can see why people are expecting regression....its kind of hard to actually "improve"....there really is nowhere to go but down.....IMO I believe many will be surprised how well Mahomes (and the Chiefs) will do even if Hill doesn't play.... 

curious zoo....let's say he does have Hill, where would you have him...?

 

[Anarchy99]

Andy Reid loves to throw the football....Mahomes is going to be slinging it in every game....the running game is nothing to write home about....IMO Mahomes can make average WR's really good....see Albert Wilson week 17 two years ago when he was about the only option on the field....Wilson almost earned a Pro Bowl nomination in one game.....the FBG staff that have made projections so far all pretty much have him with 4500 plus yards and the TD's are (35) Dodds, (41) Henry (34) Tremblay and (38) Norton....IMO in this offense and with this head coach (40) is VERY doable....Mahomes is option A and B on this team....they should still be in the red zone often and Mahomes has the trigger for tight windows....there were a few years there where it seemed like Favre had 8-10 one yard TD passes to Bubba Franks or something....my mind ventures there often for those expecting (15) plus less TD's....to get (40) he needs to average 2.5 TD's a game....the schedule may be tougher. although last year that 6 game stretch at the beginning was supposed to be "brutal" and he averaged 3 per game....Mahomes averaged 37 pass attempts a game last year.....that should continue...lots of things could go "differently" but assuming he and all his weapons are healthy and playing.....if you set the over/under at 40 I don't think its a slam dunk no brainer to take the under....many will point to teams "having a years worth of film, etc"....well Mahomes was really in his first year last year and he could get better as well....heck last year everybody thought he was going to be a "turnover machine", etc.....and he exceeded expectations (understatement)...I feel IMO he will do the same this year for those expecting a huge regression....

If you took the under of 40 TD's for every QB in the history of the NFL each and every year for all QB's, you would have been able to retire a long time ago. Forty is a big number once in a career, let alone in back-to-back years. Only Brees, Manning, Marino, and Rodgers have had more than one 40 TD season in their careers.

I get this is a different era and that Reid loves to throw the football. Reid has been a head coach for 20 years. His next 5 highest totals for team TD passes in a season? 32 in 2004, 31 in 2006, 28 in 2010, and 27 in 2001 and 2009.

Your totals for games without Hunt were a little off a little if you include the playoffs. Mahomes averaged 291/2.3 without Hunt. That works out to a projected 4656/36 (but that projection would include 16 games with Hill). They also went 4-3 without Hunt. I think a huge problem for defenses to start the year last year was having to worry about Hill-Hunt-Kelce. We know Hunt is gone and Hill could be gone for an extended stretch. I think defenses will be much better suited to focus on Kelce if Hill is out and Mahomes won't have it as easy as last year. If the solution is an oft-injured Watkins, a rookie WR, and someone other than Hunt as a receiver out of the backfield, that is a sizable downgrade to what the Chiefs started the season with last year.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

If you took the under of 40 TD's for every QB in the history of the NFL each and every year for all QB's, you would have been able to retire a long time ago. Forty is a big number once in a career, let alone in back-to-back years. Only Brees, Manning, Marino, and Rodgers have had more than one 40 TD season in their careers.

I get this is a different era and that Reid loves to throw the football. Reid has been a head coach for 20 years. His next 5 highest totals for team TD passes in a season? 32 in 2004, 31 in 2006, 28 in 2010, and 27 in 2001 and 2009.

Your totals for games without Hunt were a little off a little if you include the playoffs. Mahomes averaged 291/2.3 without Hunt. That works out to a projected 4656/36 (but that projection would include 16 games with Hill). They also went 4-3 without Hunt. I think a huge problem for defenses to start the year last year was having to worry about Hill-Hunt-Kelce. We know Hunt is gone and Hill could be gone for an extended stretch. I think defenses will be much better suited to focus on Kelce if Hill is out and Mahomes won't have it as easy as last year. If the solution is an oft-injured Watkins, a rookie WR, and someone other than Hunt as a receiver out of the backfield, that is a sizable downgrade to what the Chiefs started the season with last year.

I didn't include playoff games for purposes of this discussion but if you want too thats fine....

look I get it.....there are a ton of reasons to regress projections....but IMO I think 4500/40-45 is still doable....if others think its 4000/32....fine...but I will not be surprised if he gets 4500/45....many others obviously will....so whatever projection you factor in, it just depends on what its worth to you....but that may not really even matter, because somebody is probably going to take him in the second round of most leagues no matter what anyway, IMO....and I think that is why most will just basically take a stand and cross him off their lists before the draft even starts....Rivers went 4300/32 last year.....sounds like many think Mahomes regresses that much or something around there ....and thats fine.... I just disagree....he had two games with (6) TD's and thats not gonna happen very often....none with (5)...and a handful with (4)....I think you can justifiably take a few off the (50) and some of the yards ...but Mahomes was fairly consistent last year and seems like IMO, someone who you can pencil in for 300/3 most weeks....I know that is "rarefied never been done before" air, so don't really need for anyone to post the stats saying it has never happened....but I think he is a talent that doesn't come around very often.....I know that if I saw him in an opponents lineup, in my head I'm thinking 300/3...

 

[zoonation]

in the games without Hunt....he averaged 294/2.6.....which equates to 4704/42....

I can see why people are expecting regression....its kind of hard to actually "improve"....there really is nowhere to go but down.....IMO I believe many will be surprised how well Mahomes (and the Chiefs) will do even if Hill doesn't play.... 

curious zoo....let's say he does have Hill, where would you have him...?

Top 5.  Easy.  Would bet top 3   

No Hill changes the d scheme big time though.  

 

[kutta]

I didn't include playoff games for purposes of this discussion but if you want too thats fine....

look I get it.....there are a ton of reasons to regress projections....but IMO I think 4500/40-45 is still doable....if others think its 4000/32....fine...but I will not be surprised if he gets 4500/45....many others obviously will....so whatever projection you factor in, it just depends on what its worth to you....but that may not really even matter, because somebody is probably going to take him in the second round of most leagues no matter what anyway, IMO....and I think that is why most will just basically take a stand and cross him off their lists before the draft even starts....Rivers went 4300/32 last year.....sounds like many think Mahomes regresses that much or something around there ....and thats fine.... I just disagree....he had two games with (6) TD's and thats not gonna happen very often....none with (5)...and a handful with (4)....I think you can justifiably take a few off the (50) and some of the yards ...but Mahomes was fairly consistent last year and seems like IMO, someone who you can pencil in for 300/3 most weeks....I know that is "rarefied never been done before" air, so don't really need for anyone to post the stats saying it has never happened....but I think he is a talent that doesn't come around very often.....I know that if I saw him in an opponents lineup, in my head I'm thinking 300/3...

Exactly. In 2011, everyone said Brees wouldn't throw for 5K yards again because, well, people don't do that. And then he did. And everyone said he wouldn't do it again. And then he did. And everyone said he wouldn't do it again, and in 2016 he did it again.

Every scenario/QB/situation is different. I agree Mahomes is a different kind of cat. If anyone can do it, he can. Well, he and Brees...

 

[Hankmoody]

if you don't have to draft 2-3 QB's....and let's say you just take Mahomes....and that allows you to take other players where you would have normally taken your QB2 and or QB3....and one of those guys hits, let's say a Connor, or Carson, or Woods, or Cohen or somebody.....it's kind of hard to factor in that added benefit to your team in terms of VBD....VBD may  slam you at its core for taking Mahomes in the second round.....but if you were able to improve your weekly starting lineup at other positions because you didn't have to take a second or third QB....whats that worth....?....are we allowed to somehow factor that back in to Mahomes value?..... ...yeah you would also say it the other way that you could have improved your team elsewhere with somebody else/other position in the second and then Rivers or somebody later and you can see what would have paid off the most....but we don't ever really announce "this is where I would normally be taking my QB2, but since I have Mahomes, I am taking Chris Carson"....after the fact it's easy to do the other way, but not so much this way....that probably made zero sense to anybody else....if so, try some crack and you will "get it"....

This is why these theories don't hold water.  They are all premised on the same thing - being right.  If you take say Rashaad Penny there, or Marshawn Lynch, or Ronald Jones, but left (how's this for irony?) Mahomes there for someone else to speculate on at QB2 then it's an entirely different picture and those guys are out there crowing about the suckers taking Brees in the 3rd while they got Melvin Gordon and picked up Mahomes or Ryan late. 

 

[Stinkin Ref]

This is why these theories don't hold water.  They are all premised on the same thing - being right.  If you take say Rashaad Penny there, or Marshawn Lynch, or Ronald Jones, but left (how's this for irony?) Mahomes there for someone else to speculate on at QB2 then it's an entirely different picture and those guys are out there crowing about the suckers taking Brees in the 3rd while they got Melvin Gordon and picked up Mahomes or Ryan late. 

thats why I said before...."if you have confidence in your ability to actually draft and acquire talent/value/sleepers elsewhere he is a great way to start a draft....if you are not a very good drafter, he might not be the QB for you....".....

Mahomes is a great piece to add early that should give you an early advantage and there is nothing wrong with the "QB early approach" if you are confident in your drafting abilities and feel you can strengthen your team as the draft moves on and with the picks other guys are wasting on QB2's and 3's...these are things that VBD doesn't factor in....

you kind of have to look at it this way too (at least some)....if you pass on Mahomes in the second or third....that guy/s you take instead better produce and not get hurt (this is also assuming you buy at least a little into the fact that QB's get hurt a little less than RB/WR)....because then not only did you pass up a ton of points and a decent "advantage" at the QB spot, you also losing ground to the field if you miss on that early RB/WR....(I know I know, ...its all about VBD and if my second or third round guy gets hurt, I am probably done anyway...blah blah blah)....but IMO, taking a QB early, is only one pick out of an entire draft, and if your draft and season is going to be totally screwed because you don't follow the almighty VBD to the letter of the law, then the other parts of your fantasy game (sleepers/late gems/trading/WW work/acquisitions/etc) must need some work....there is no theory that holds water every time....lots of theories/strategies can work....QB early can be one of them....

 

[Anarchy99]

Exactly. In 2011, everyone said Brees wouldn't throw for 5K yards again because, well, people don't do that. And then he did. And everyone said he wouldn't do it again. And then he did. And everyone said he wouldn't do it again, and in 2016 he did it again.

Every scenario/QB/situation is different. I agree Mahomes is a different kind of cat. If anyone can do it, he can. Well, he and Brees...

Brees had over 5,000 yards passing multiple times, but there is no denying he threw the ball A TON. Of the Top 25 seasons all time in terms of passing attempts, Brees has had 9 of them. No one else has more than 2 of those seasons. If Mahomes starts throwing the ball 650-675 times a year, sure, he will set records like Brees did.

Yes, football has changed over the last few years, but people forgot that since 1970, only 21 quarterbacks had 25 or more TD passes in their second season in the league. That includes Mahomes and Watson last year. Even using that total of 25 as the bar, the other 19 QB's saw their TD total dip from an average of 30 TD passes to 23 TD passes, a drop off of almost 25%. There can be any number of reasons why that happened and that may or may not be explained on a case by case basis. In Mahomes case, if he followed the trend, he would throw 37 or 38 TD's this year. Put another way, had he "only" had 37 TD's last year, depending upon scoring systems, he could have dropped from the #1 QB by far to "just" the #3 QB last year. Based on where he was drafted, that still would have been great value.

No matter how you look at it, he was a fantasy steal of a lifetime last year. Accoring to MFL ADP data, he was the 101st pick off the board last year and ended up ranked as the #1 fantasy QB by a substantial margin. Getting 143 value points out of the 101st pick is a winning lottery ticket.

I realize it's early in the game, but MFL ADP data so far for 2019 has Mahomes getting drafted as the #7 player overall in redrafts. That pretty much mirrors my point in all of this . . . in order for Mahomes to come close to earning back his draft spot this year, his numbers will have to be the same or better than last year. (The next QB's coming off the MFL draft board this year so far are Watson at #27 and Luck at #28.) If Mahomes drops to 4500/35 like Dodds projects, Mahomes could still rank as the #1 QB again this year but only net 50 value points . . . which is decent but not great for what could be a first round fantasy pick. 

 

[fightingillini]

It's very difficult to have 50 passing tds, a product of not only great quarterback play but also wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends. No QB ever puts together a great season by himself. His surroundings will change every year, which we're seeing it now in Kansas City with Tyreek Hill's drama. If Hill doesn't play, I don't see Mahomes getting close to repeating 2018, although I would expect more than 26 or 29 TDs though.

Hill was the one that really made KC's passing game click.  Not only Hill was the fastest guy in the league, he was also a very good route runner who ran the full route tree.  Hill's presence really opened it up for Kelce, Watkins, and the RB.  If Hill is out for part or all of this year, the impact will be huge.

I am avoiding Mahomes this year, even if Hill plays.  History always dictates regression here.  I do think Mahomes will throw more TD passes than what cloppbeast projects here, but it probably will be in the 32-35 range.  Mahomes will still be my QB1 right now, but the gap is close and it's nowhere near what it needs to be for Mahomes to be worth his current ADP of 30.  

QB is way too deep to invest in Mahomes in round 3.

 

[cloppbeast]

I do think Mahomes will throw more TD passes than what cloppbeast projects here, but it probably will be in the 32-35 range. 

Just ftr, I made no projection, just said he'd have more than the OP's average of 26 or 29. I agree with u, 32 or 35.

 

[dickey moe]

The one takeaway from this thread is that Daunte Culpepper was a QB back in 2001. Damn, I feel old.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Brees had over 5,000 yards passing multiple times, but there is no denying he threw the ball A TON. Of the Top 25 seasons all time in terms of passing attempts, Brees has had 9 of them. No one else has more than 2 of those seasons. If Mahomes starts throwing the ball 650-675 times a year, sure, he will set records like Brees did.

Yes, football has changed over the last few years, but people forgot that since 1970, only 21 quarterbacks had 25 or more TD passes in their second season in the league. That includes Mahomes and Watson last year. Even using that total of 25 as the bar, the other 19 QB's saw their TD total dip from an average of 30 TD passes to 23 TD passes, a drop off of almost 25%. There can be any number of reasons why that happened and that may or may not be explained on a case by case basis. In Mahomes case, if he followed the trend, he would throw 37 or 38 TD's this year. Put another way, had he "only" had 37 TD's last year, depending upon scoring systems, he could have dropped from the #1 QB by far to "just" the #3 QB last year. Based on where he was drafted, that still would have been great value.

No matter how you look at it, he was a fantasy steal of a lifetime last year. Accoring to MFL ADP data, he was the 101st pick off the board last year and ended up ranked as the #1 fantasy QB by a substantial margin. Getting 143 value points out of the 101st pick is a winning lottery ticket.

I realize it's early in the game, but MFL ADP data so far for 2019 has Mahomes getting drafted as the #7 player overall in redrafts. That pretty much mirrors my point in all of this . . . in order for Mahomes to come close to earning back his draft spot this year, his numbers will have to be the same or better than last year. (The next QB's coming off the MFL draft board this year so far are Watson at #27 and Luck at #28.) If Mahomes drops to 4500/35 like Dodds projects, Mahomes could still rank as the #1 QB again this year but only net 50 value points . . . which is decent but not great for what could be a first round fantasy pick. 

was revisiting this thread looking for something ....and in reading your last paragraph here, I agree that it is still early, but apparently the "masses" or general fantasy football community disagrees with most of the sentiment in here....the FF community sees him as a first or second round pick....so our outlooks and where he should go and what he is really worth may not matter that much....he will be gone in the second round (or sooner)....if we are going to use the MFL ADP data as a guide, we also need to acknowledge what it tells us.....we can argue all day if he is really going to be worth it or not, but it doesn't look like it will really matter....

I guess for me one of the biggest things is type of league, scoring, etc.....the data above says redraft....and I am assuming 6 PPTD..but is it redraft best ball....or is it redraft where you have to set a lineup every week...are you allowed to make moves or is it draft and done, etc.....if its best ball I think it changes the conversation a little....in best ball while I still wouldn't have much of a problem putting Mahomes and a scrub up weekly against a team with 2-3 or 4 QB's, it obviously changes things a little if you get the best of Stafford/Dalton/Flacco or something every week instead of actually having to pick one of them every week....

so it seems like in summary....the general sentiment in here seems to be that Mahomes will have regression (pretty much a given)....but some are expecting significant regression.....but any projections or what not may not really matter with this dude because the early data suggests he is going to be gone by the second round in most drafts anyway....(it only takes one guy in every league to chase last years numbers)....so all that really matters is deciding whether you can just go ahead and cross him off your list and move on to somebody else down the road....or if you want to roll the dice and be "that guy" that takes him and then build from there.....VBD and the experts will smash you for drafting him early, but VBD doesn't factor in all the things that go into managing a draft and then the team throughout the year....we'll see....