Patriots at Jets in Week 10 (1 Viewer)

[Ghost Rider]

Let's get some chatter going about this game.

Rex Ryan, you said in the preseason that you wanted other teams to step up and start beating the Patriots, too. Well, they have, and with you guys, the Pats and Bills all at 5-3, your Jets can get a major leg up on the Patriots with a win next Sunday (a one game lead, plus a one game lead in the division loss column when it comes to tiebreakers). Can your Jets come through?

 

[Prinefan]

I see it happening. NE is very vulnerable right now. Brady doesn't look as good as he has in the past. Not saying he looks bad. Just not "other-worldly". Jets are coming on.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Interesting slate of games this week.

5-3 Pats @ the 5-3 Jets for control of the AFC East. Loser probably doesn't make the playoffs. Throw in the bitter rivalry for the cherry on top.

6-2 Giants @ 7-1 49ers for possibly the #2 seed in the NFC and a first round bye.

6-3 Saints @ 5-3 Falcons for control of the NFC South. Loser is thrown into a wild scenario for the last wildcard spot in the NFC with the Bears, Bucs, Eagles and Cowboys all in the hunt.

6-3 Steelers @ 6-2 Bengals may decide the last AFC wildcard spot.

3-5 Redskins @ 1-7 Dolphins for a rematch of Super Bowl XVII.

All the AFC West teams are playing each other and it's a tossup on who wins the division.

 

[David Yudkin]

Interesting slate of games this week.5-3 Pats @ the 5-3 Jets for control of the AFC East. Loser probably doesn't make the playoffs. Throw in the bitter rivalry for the cherry on top.

I'm not buying this. Way too early for either team to worry about missing the playoffs.Even if the Pats lose and fall to 5-4, they could win out and end up 12-4.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Interesting slate of games this week.

5-3 Pats @ the 5-3 Jets for control of the AFC East. Loser probably doesn't make the playoffs. Throw in the bitter rivalry for the cherry on top.

I'm not buying this. Way too early for either team to worry about missing the playoffs.Even if the Pats lose and fall to 5-4, they could win out and end up 12-4.

Well of course they could. Funny, I just threw away one of my old football stat books this weekend with the idea of "I'll never look at this again". In there, they have an analysis of how often teams make the playoffs after 9 games. I remember 5-4 teams faring very poorly.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

To be honest I'm a little surprised NE is still getting enough respect to only be +1 instead of the standard +3 for homefield. The Jets are just so much better almost across the board outside of QB that I really think these teams are about equal.

 

[Crash Davis]

The recent vintage of this Jets team hasn't dealt with prosperity well. The obvious example is going into Foxboro on week 13 last year at 9-2 with many picking them to win and lay claim to the division. We all remember 45-3. Then in the playoffs they went back to Foxboro and beat them when almost no one gave them a chance to do so. Maybe i'm oversimplifying it but they seem to play best when their backs are up against the wall and not when they have a chance to really establish themselves as the team they want everyone to believe they are. Maybe this is their time, maybe they are truly catching the Patriots at a vulnerable point and they are ready to claim the inside track on the AFC East. I think the Defense is playing well right now and can slow Brady and Co. a bit, but I worry about the offensive game plan. The last time they met they stubbornly tried to take the air out of the ball and run it at the Pats when everyone else has been throwing all over them. I'll be curious if they let Sanchez open it up a bit more or if they try the same thing, hoping they have more success.

 

[Dizzy]

3-5 Redskins @ 1-7 Dolphins for a rematch of Super Bowl XVII.

Wasn't the first thing to pop into my mind when I saw this match-up. They played in Super Bowl VII as well, so I guess this could be the rubber match.The Patriots have some issues here... besides that terrible defense, they have been forced to take "dink & dunk" to a whole new level with nobody to stretch the field vertically.I also agree, the loser is on the outside-looking-in regarding the play-off picture.NYJ 20, NEP 16

 

[TLEF316]

I'm pretty confident about this one. Although the Jets (mainly Sanchez) made a few bad mistakes yesterday, they had a good offensive game plan (And I hate Schotty, so a compliment from me on this is saying something) and played well.

the o-line is playing very well these past few games and the receiving core is starting to click.

I actually like NY by 7-10 points this week, barring a disastrous performance by Sanchez or another massive stinker by Cromartie (both of which are possible)

 

[steelwind]

Shootout of the week. Book it.

 

[cubbie5150]

Shootout of the week. Book it.

Every week peeps prognosticate a shoot-out in Pats' games, and every week it seems to disappoint. I said in the game thread yesterday that, blasphemous or not, the Pats offense is not all that these days. IMO, IF BB committed to RUNNING the ball 35 times, I think Pats win. BJGE ran all over the Jets in the last meeting. If I were BB, that would be my plan, thus no chance for a shoot-out. Brady & company have been looking pretty ordinary the past few games for the most part

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Shootout of the week. Book it.

Every week peeps prognosticate a shoot-out in Pats' games, and every week it seems to disappoint. I said in the game thread yesterday that, blasphemous or not, the Pats offense is not all that these days. IMO, IF BB committed to RUNNING the ball 35 times, I think Pats win. BJGE ran all over the Jets in the last meeting. If I were BB, that would be my plan, thus no chance for a shoot-out. Brady & company have been looking pretty ordinary the past few games for the most part

Its virtually impossible to be optimistic this week after watching Sheli march down the field and into the endzone at the end of yesterday. McCourty is a good player. Chung is OK. After that, its CFL quality in the secondary. Now that the Jets have the run game working, Sanchez turns into a 4 star QB. Just look at his stats yesterday. There is basically no answer for Holmes/Plexiglass/Keller/LT on play action. With no vertical threat and no timing established with Ocho Zero, all the Pats have got is Welker, who will be taken away, and play action to the tight end twins. This game will be a play action war, and that's not a game the Pats can win.Jets 31Pats 20

 

[David Yudkin]

Shootout of the week. Book it.

Every week peeps prognosticate a shoot-out in Pats' games, and every week it seems to disappoint. I said in the game thread yesterday that, blasphemous or not, the Pats offense is not all that these days. IMO, IF BB committed to RUNNING the ball 35 times, I think Pats win. BJGE ran all over the Jets in the last meeting. If I were BB, that would be my plan, thus no chance for a shoot-out. Brady & company have been looking pretty ordinary the past few games for the most part

Its virtually impossible to be optimistic this week after watching Sheli march down the field and into the endzone at the end of yesterday. McCourty is a good player. Chung is OK. After that, its CFL quality in the secondary. Now that the Jets have the run game working, Sanchez turns into a 4 star QB. Just look at his stats yesterday. There is basically no answer for Holmes/Plexiglass/Keller/LT on play action. With no vertical threat and no timing established with Ocho Zero, all the Pats have got is Welker, who will be taken away, and play action to the tight end twins. This game will be a play action war, and that's not a game the Pats can win.Jets 31Pats 20

I am curious though, that if the Pats hung 45 points on the Jets last year with no deep threat at all . . . why this year could they only score 20 points without a deep threat. I am not saying the Pats will win or that the Pats will score over 20 points. The Pats offense is exactly the same as last year (with more RB depth) . . . with Ocho on the bench. Maybe it's the logic that is confusing me.

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

Bellichick's W-L (14-8) record against the Jets since 2000:

2000 LL 2001 LW 2002 WL2003 WW2004 WW2005 WW2006 WL2007 WW2008 WL2009 LW 2010 LWaverage scores against common opponents (MIA, SD, OAK, BUF, DAL) this seasonats 27.4

Opps 26.4

Jets 21.0

Opps 24.0

Prediction:

Pats 24

Jets 21

 

[Crash Davis]

Bellichick's W-L (3-3) record against the Jets since Rex took over:

2009 LW 2010 LWL (playoffs count too)2011 W

Much more relevant to the current game IMO.

 

[njherdfan]

Shootout of the week. Book it.

Every week peeps prognosticate a shoot-out in Pats' games, and every week it seems to disappoint. I said in the game thread yesterday that, blasphemous or not, the Pats offense is not all that these days. IMO, IF BB committed to RUNNING the ball 35 times, I think Pats win. BJGE ran all over the Jets in the last meeting. If I were BB, that would be my plan, thus no chance for a shoot-out. Brady & company have been looking pretty ordinary the past few games for the most part

Its virtually impossible to be optimistic this week after watching Sheli march down the field and into the endzone at the end of yesterday. McCourty is a good player. Chung is OK. After that, its CFL quality in the secondary. Now that the Jets have the run game working, Sanchez turns into a 4 star QB. Just look at his stats yesterday. There is basically no answer for Holmes/Plexiglass/Keller/LT on play action. With no vertical threat and no timing established with Ocho Zero, all the Pats have got is Welker, who will be taken away, and play action to the tight end twins. This game will be a play action war, and that's not a game the Pats can win.Jets 31

Pats 20

I am curious though, that if the Pats hung 45 points on the Jets last year with no deep threat at all . . . why this year could they only score 20 points without a deep threat. I am not saying the Pats will win or that the Pats will score over 20 points. The Pats offense is exactly the same as last year (with more RB depth) . . . with Ocho on the bench. Maybe it's the logic that is confusing me.

Personnel wise yes, but with Brady's regression towards the mean, the Pats' offensive production is not close to what it was last year IMO.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Shootout of the week. Book it.

Every week peeps prognosticate a shoot-out in Pats' games, and every week it seems to disappoint. I said in the game thread yesterday that, blasphemous or not, the Pats offense is not all that these days. IMO, IF BB committed to RUNNING the ball 35 times, I think Pats win. BJGE ran all over the Jets in the last meeting. If I were BB, that would be my plan, thus no chance for a shoot-out. Brady & company have been looking pretty ordinary the past few games for the most part

Its virtually impossible to be optimistic this week after watching Sheli march down the field and into the endzone at the end of yesterday. McCourty is a good player. Chung is OK. After that, its CFL quality in the secondary. Now that the Jets have the run game working, Sanchez turns into a 4 star QB. Just look at his stats yesterday. There is basically no answer for Holmes/Plexiglass/Keller/LT on play action. With no vertical threat and no timing established with Ocho Zero, all the Pats have got is Welker, who will be taken away, and play action to the tight end twins. This game will be a play action war, and that's not a game the Pats can win.Jets 31

Pats 20

I am curious though, that if the Pats hung 45 points on the Jets last year with no deep threat at all . . . why this year could they only score 20 points without a deep threat. I am not saying the Pats will win or that the Pats will score over 20 points. The Pats offense is exactly the same as last year (with more RB depth) . . . with Ocho on the bench. Maybe it's the logic that is confusing me.

Personnel wise yes, but with Brady's regression towards the mean, the Pats' offensive production is not close to what it was last year IMO.

Brady's numbers are a dependent variable. Its not his personal regression to the mean as you put it, its teams are getting more time of possession against a secondary thats actually worse than last year, branch is older and slower, there's more gamefilm available to scheme against welker and the tight ends, and teams are going to play more man and less zone. Meanwhile, after a slow start, Sanchez is better year to year, and that is probably due to Burress more than anything else, imo.Personally, I'm wondering about the dollar commitment to brady, wilfork and the oline as it relates to the seeming ever-growing problem fielding a capable secondary and a meaningful pass rush. Hopefully I'm just being pessimistic after the Giants smacked that ###....time will tell.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Interesting slate of games this week.5-3 Pats @ the 5-3 Jets for control of the AFC East. Loser probably doesn't make the playoffs. Throw in the bitter rivalry for the cherry on top.

I'm not buying this. Way too early for either team to worry about missing the playoffs.Even if the Pats lose and fall to 5-4, they could win out and end up 12-4.

Come on Dave. That defense isnt going to get this team to 12 n 4

 

[NYRAGE]

Shootout of the week. Book it.

Every week peeps prognosticate a shoot-out in Pats' games, and every week it seems to disappoint. I said in the game thread yesterday that, blasphemous or not, the Pats offense is not all that these days. IMO, IF BB committed to RUNNING the ball 35 times, I think Pats win. BJGE ran all over the Jets in the last meeting. If I were BB, that would be my plan, thus no chance for a shoot-out. Brady & company have been looking pretty ordinary the past few games for the most part

Its virtually impossible to be optimistic this week after watching Sheli march down the field and into the endzone at the end of yesterday. McCourty is a good player. Chung is OK. After that, its CFL quality in the secondary. Now that the Jets have the run game working, Sanchez turns into a 4 star QB. Just look at his stats yesterday. There is basically no answer for Holmes/Plexiglass/Keller/LT on play action. With no vertical threat and no timing established with Ocho Zero, all the Pats have got is Welker, who will be taken away, and play action to the tight end twins. This game will be a play action war, and that's not a game the Pats can win.Jets 31Pats 20

I am curious though, that if the Pats hung 45 points on the Jets last year with no deep threat at all . . . why this year could they only score 20 points without a deep threat. I am not saying the Pats will win or that the Pats will score over 20 points. The Pats offense is exactly the same as last year (with more RB depth) . . . with Ocho on the bench. Maybe it's the logic that is confusing me.

One thing worth mentioning about that game is that Jim Leonhard was hurt in practice & lost for the season just before the NE game. The Jets were devastated by his loss since he makes all the secondary calls. The Jets didn't have time to prepare/cover-up that loss and the Pats really took advantage of it. Not to take anything away from the Pats who dominated that game, but the 45 points were an aberration and you saw a truer defensive performance in the playoffs.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Interesting slate of games this week.5-3 Pats @ the 5-3 Jets for control of the AFC East. Loser probably doesn't make the playoffs. Throw in the bitter rivalry for the cherry on top.

I'm not buying this. Way too early for either team to worry about missing the playoffs.Even if the Pats lose and fall to 5-4, they could win out and end up 12-4.

Come on Dave. That defense isnt going to get this team to 12 n 4

5-3 60/40 loss to jets80/20 beat chiefs at home60/40 beat philly at philly90/10 beat indy at home80/20 beat wash at wash70/30 beat denver at denver60/40 beat miami at miami60/40 beat buffalo at home1.5 losses in 4 close games, 0.5 losses in 4 likely win games. I'll guess 11-5 plus / minus one.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Interesting slate of games this week.5-3 Pats @ the 5-3 Jets for control of the AFC East. Loser probably doesn't make the playoffs. Throw in the bitter rivalry for the cherry on top.

I'm not buying this. Way too early for either team to worry about missing the playoffs.Even if the Pats lose and fall to 5-4, they could win out and end up 12-4.

Come on Dave. That defense isnt going to get this team to 12 n 4

5-3 60/40 loss to jets80/20 beat chiefs at home60/40 beat philly at philly90/10 beat indy at home80/20 beat wash at wash70/30 beat denver at denver60/40 beat miami at miami60/40 beat buffalo at home1.5 losses in 4 close games, 0.5 losses in 4 likely win games. I'll guess 11-5 plus / minus one.

What a ####ty schedule down the stretch minus Buffalo.

 

[David Yudkin]

Interesting slate of games this week.5-3 Pats @ the 5-3 Jets for control of the AFC East. Loser probably doesn't make the playoffs. Throw in the bitter rivalry for the cherry on top.

I'm not buying this. Way too early for either team to worry about missing the playoffs.Even if the Pats lose and fall to 5-4, they could win out and end up 12-4.

Come on Dave. That defense isnt going to get this team to 12 n 4

5-3 60/40 loss to jets80/20 beat chiefs at home60/40 beat philly at philly90/10 beat indy at home80/20 beat wash at wash70/30 beat denver at denver60/40 beat miami at miami60/40 beat buffalo at home1.5 losses in 4 close games, 0.5 losses in 4 likely win games. I'll guess 11-5 plus / minus one.

The Dolphins game is at home. I would go . . .50/50 loss @ NYJ75/25 win vs KC70/30 win @ PHI95/5 win vs IND80/20 win @ WAS80/20 win @ DEN85/15 win vs MIA70/30 win vs BUFThe Pats have lost 3 games and could have won all of them (lost by 3 @ BUF after being up 21, lost by 8 @ PIT, lost by 4 vs NYG in last seconds). No one has exactly destroyed them, even with their pourous defense and even turning the ball over a lot more.It would not surprise me if NE beat the Jets this week. The only time Brady has lost three games in a row was in 2002 (when they lost 4 in a row).

 

[SacramentoBob]

The Pats have lost 3 games and could have won all of them (lost by 3 @ BUF after being up 21, lost by 8 @ PIT, lost by 4 vs NYG in last seconds). No one has exactly destroyed them, even with their pourous defense and even turning the ball over a lot more.

They also could have lost to the Cowboys and Raiders.

 

[David Yudkin]

The Pats have lost 3 games and could have won all of them (lost by 3 @ BUF after being up 21, lost by 8 @ PIT, lost by 4 vs NYG in last seconds). No one has exactly destroyed them, even with their pourous defense and even turning the ball over a lot more.

They also could have lost to the Cowboys and Raiders.

Here's the thing. The difference between losing and winning in the NFL is often very slim.Let's compare two teams.TEAM A has allowed 400 yds/gm defensively and 22.3 ppg on the season.TEAM B has allowed 416 yds/gm defenseively and 23.0 ppg on the season.IMO, those two defenses look to be similar statistically.TEAM A has gained 416.3 yds/gm and scored 31.3 ppg offensively.TEAM B has gained 437.3 yds/gm and scored 27.5 ppg offensively.Again, those two offenses look to be similar, and in a small sample size field position, strength of schedule, etc., could account for the slight scoring difference.Of course, TEAM A is Green Bay and TEAM B is New England. The only HUGE difference between these two teams is turnovers. The Packers are +11 in the turnover column while the Patriots are 0. So we have to ask . . . are the Packers really that much better than New England (as their other peripheral numbers are very similar)? Are the Packers going to keep up a great turnover differential the rest of the way? Will Brady and the Pats go back to holding on to the football like they have been known for for years?I don't know what is going to happen, but the Pats have a relatively easy schedule after they play the Jets. IMO, the Packers will not continue to get all the tips and bounces and their offense will slow down some when they play in colder weather (5 games in GB and also road games in NYG and KC with a dome game against DET). At this point, I would not pick either the Packers or the Patriots to go to the Super Bowl, as neither one has the defense to take them there without making major strides in playing better.People are going to say I am nuts suggesting that the Packers have flaws, but so be it . . .

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

if the jets dont win, and i'm a jets fan, i'm ready to cut bait on sanchez. he's the only reason they have a chance to lose this game imo.

 

[kentric]

It should be interesting to see what the Jets do to turn up the pressure on Brady. The Jets have a very weak pass, strong outside coverage and moderate inside coverage. The way the Patriots have been playing on offense, it will be a challenge for the Jets to stop their TE duo. I still see the Jets moving the ball and winning the game though. 27-24

 

[SacramentoBob]

It should be interesting to see what the Jets do to turn up the pressure on Brady. The Jets have a very weak pass, strong outside coverage and moderate inside coverage. The way the Patriots have been playing on offense, it will be a challenge for the Jets to stop their TE duo. I still see the Jets moving the ball and winning the game though. 27-24

The Jets got some good pressure against Brady in their first meeting.

 

[Crash Davis]

if the Jets dont win, and i'm a jets fan, i'm ready to cut bait on sanchez. he's the only reason they have a chance to lose this game imo.

That's ridiculous.

 

[kerpow]

What are the thoughts on the Jets WRs? The Pats pass D has been very suspect this season so who do you think has the most upside here, specifically between Holmes and Burress?

[edit] just spotted that the Pats Pass D is now ranked last in the league

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2011&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=PASSING_NET_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

 

[Crash Davis]

It should be interesting to see what the Jets do to turn up the pressure on Brady. The Jets have a very weak pass, strong outside coverage and moderate inside coverage. The way the Patriots have been playing on offense, it will be a challenge for the Jets to stop their TE duo. I still see the Jets moving the ball and winning the game though. 27-24

As Maybin gets increased playing time they have been getting some more pressure on the QB without blitzing. They certainly aren't going to put the pressure that the Giants do with their "base" defense, but they are improving.