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Paul Krugman is a jackass (1 Viewer)

'tommyGunZ said:
'Joe T said:
I'm not saying uninsured folks do not forgo treatment. I'm sure they do.

I'm also certain that insured folks forgo care as well. Should we be worried about them too because you failed to mention them? You cannot make someone go to the doctor.

The difference that you are missing as are many in this thread is that forgoing care is not the same as denying care. Krugman's post if you care to get back on topic stated / implied that uninsured are denied care. That is a complete fabrication. You can move the target all you want, change the subject, and ignore it. But anyone that goes around saying children who are uninsured are being denied care has no grip on reality. In fact, I doubt they have ever stepped foot in a hospital which for them is good news.
:confused: The words "deny" or "denied" do not exist in Krugman's post. Your argument is semantical anyway; people who forego health care because they can't afford it are essentially being "denied" care. But if it makes you happy to ignore the real issue, keep on keepin' on JoeT.
Healthcare at all levels is available in the U.S. for all financial walks of life. There are people forgoing care. No one is being denied care as I've already shown and Sacramento Bob's posts supported.
 
'tommyGunZ said:
'Joe T said:
I'm not saying uninsured folks do not forgo treatment. I'm sure they do.

I'm also certain that insured folks forgo care as well. Should we be worried about them too because you failed to mention them? You cannot make someone go to the doctor.

The difference that you are missing as are many in this thread is that forgoing care is not the same as denying care. Krugman's post if you care to get back on topic stated / implied that uninsured are denied care. That is a complete fabrication. You can move the target all you want, change the subject, and ignore it. But anyone that goes around saying children who are uninsured are being denied care has no grip on reality. In fact, I doubt they have ever stepped foot in a hospital which for them is good news.
:confused: The words "deny" or "denied" do not exist in Krugman's post. Your argument is semantical anyway; people who forego health care because they can't afford it are essentially being "denied" care. But if it makes you happy to ignore the real issue, keep on keepin' on JoeT.
Healthcare at all levels is available in the U.S. for all financial walks of life. There are people forgoing care. No one is being denied care as I've already shown and Sacramento Bob's posts supported.
Lamborghinis and Ferraris are available for all as well.
 
'tommyGunZ said:
'Joe T said:
I'm not saying uninsured folks do not forgo treatment. I'm sure they do.

I'm also certain that insured folks forgo care as well. Should we be worried about them too because you failed to mention them? You cannot make someone go to the doctor.

The difference that you are missing as are many in this thread is that forgoing care is not the same as denying care. Krugman's post if you care to get back on topic stated / implied that uninsured are denied care. That is a complete fabrication. You can move the target all you want, change the subject, and ignore it. But anyone that goes around saying children who are uninsured are being denied care has no grip on reality. In fact, I doubt they have ever stepped foot in a hospital which for them is good news.
:confused: The words "deny" or "denied" do not exist in Krugman's post. Your argument is semantical anyway; people who forego health care because they can't afford it are essentially being "denied" care. But if it makes you happy to ignore the real issue, keep on keepin' on JoeT.
Healthcare at all levels is available in the U.S. for all financial walks of life. There are people forgoing care. No one is being denied care as I've already shown and Sacramento Bob's posts supported.
Lamborghinis and Ferraris are available for all as well.
yea, extremes!
 
Couple good posts on the blog recently, especially the one about hysterisis, which I'd never heard of:

Stimulus, Austerity, and Double Standards

Just a quick thought: in much discussion of economic policy these days, the presumption is that stimulus had its chance, it failed, and that's that. Never mind those of us who say that we actually didn't do nearly enough — and were saying that from the beginning, not as an after-the-fact rationalization. It's one strike and you're out.

Meanwhile, the pain caucus keeps telling us that austerity is the way to restore confidence; and confidence keeps not being restored. Ireland, for example, has imposed savage austerity, yet the interest rate on its 10-year bonds is still 6.7 percentage points higher than Germany's, down from recent peaks but still far above its level when the austerity program began.

Yet somehow nobody in the pain caucus says hey, this was supposed to work but it didn't, so our theory is all wrong. Instead, they just insist that we double down, continuing the beatings until morale improves.

Just saying.
Hysteresis Begins

The slump in the United States and other advanced economies is the result of a failure of demand — period, end of story. All attempts to claim that it is somehow structural, or maybe the result of reduced incentives to produce, have collapsed at first contact with the evidence.

But there is a real concern that if the slump goes on long enough, it can turn into a supply-side problem, because investment will be depressed, reducing future capacity, and because workers who have been unemployed for a long time become unemployable. This is the issue of hysteria "hysteresis".

And if you look at manufacturing capacity, in particular, you can already see that starting to happen.

The WSJ Real Time Economics blog — about the only part of the Journal I find worth reading these days — noted this the other day. Here's a longer-term perspective (I divided the FRED manufacturing production series by the capacity utilization series to back out capacity, rather than using the inconveniently formatted data from the Board of Governors):

link to graph

Manufacturing capacity

You can see that there was a mini-version of the current decline in manufacturing capacity after the 2001 recession: capacity basically stopped growing in the face of a protracted weak economy. But this time around, with manufacturers operating way below capacity with little prospect of needing more capacity any time soon, they're both scrapping equipment and failing to expand. The result is that when we finally do have a real recovery, we'll run up against capacity constraints much sooner than we would have if there had been no Lesser Depression.

Arguably the same thing is happening in other sectors of the economy, as the long-term unemployed begin to become unemployable, as the long shortfall in residential construction leads to rising rents (and a small uptick in core inflation) even though demand remains deeply depressed.

Hysteresis can mean that the costs of failing to pursue expansionary policies are much greater than even the direct effects on employment. And it can also mean, especially in the face of very low interest rates, that austerity policies are actually self-destructive even in purely fiscal terms: by reducing the economy's future potential, they reduce future revenues, and can make the debt position worse in the long run.

Still more evidence, then, of the awesome folly of the current direction of policy in Europe and America.
Panties, did you move to Chicago to go to college?
 
The Distributional Effect of Tax Cuts — A Brief NoteWith taxes on the wealthy on the political radar, we’re going to drowning in a vast wave of double-talk and smothered by vast amounts of fuzzy math. Still, one has to try. So, a couple of notes.One is that you have to beware of the old trick of saying “taxes”, then slipping into “income taxes”. Most Americans pay more payroll than income taxes, but the reverse is true at high incomes. So focusing only on income taxes makes it seem as if the rich pay much more of the burden than they really do.Another, more subtle trick involves comparing percentage changes in taxes as opposed to tax changes as a percentage of income.The starting point is that federal taxes are indeed progressive on average (although there are billionaires who pay a lower rate than their secretaries). And this in turn means that you have to be careful about the question when evaluating a change in taxes.Suppose that it’s 1979, and individual A is a member of the working poor, paying 12 percent of his income in taxes — basically payroll tax and not much else. Meanwhile, individual B is very wealthy, and pays 40 percent of his income in taxes — as the very wealthy did on average 30 years ago.Now suppose that 30 years of conservative governance lead to a fall of a quarter in both individuals’ average tax rates; A’s rate falls from 12 to 9, B’s from 40 to 30. Would it make sense to say that they have gained equally from tax cuts?Clearly not. A’s after-tax income has risen from 88 to 91 percent of pretax income, a gain of 3.4 percent. B’s after-tax income has risen from 60 to 70 percent of pretax income, a gain of 16.7 percent. The distribution of after-tax income has become substantially less equal. And that’s the calculation I was doing here.Now, right-wingers come back and say that this is what has to happen when you cut taxes. No, it doesn’t. And anyway, cutting taxes is itself a choice — and they’re a choice that then leads to demands that we cut programs for the poor and middle class to close the deficit those tax cuts created.The point is that yes, tax policy these past 30 years has been very much tilted toward benefiting the rich.
 
I thought I caught something on the radio yesterday about Obama wanting Krugman for some position in his cabinet... not sure, my attention was split and only sort of caught the tail end of something being said. Anyone know of anything?

 
I thought I caught something on the radio yesterday about Obama wanting Krugman for some position in his cabinet... not sure, my attention was split and only sort of caught the tail end of something being said. Anyone know of anything?
That would be very surprising.
 
IN one of the comments, this link was presented as debunking the idea that approximately 50% of american's don't pay taxes.

Would probably be interesting enough for its own thread.

 
Another blog post dispelling the idea that those making over 1 million pay more in taxes than middle class folks:

 
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Not Krugman, but economics related so I'll stick it here:

The Federal Reserve announced a new plan Wednesday to stimulate growth by purchasing $400 billion in long-term Treasury securities with proceeds from the sale of short-term government debt, defying Republican demands to refrain from new actions.

........................

Economists project that the effort could reduce interest rates by a few tenths of a percentage point, a significant increment when multiplied by the vast extent of borrowing. The forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers estimated in advance of the Fed’s announcement — based on its best guess about the details of such a program — that the Fed’s efforts could add about 0.4 percentage points to economic output and create about 350,000 jobs.
Another example of Republicans playing politics instead of trying to solve problems. Here's a move that economists estimate will spur 350k jobs, yet Republicans are against it. :thumbdown:
 
I thought I caught something on the radio yesterday about Obama wanting Krugman for some position in his cabinet... not sure, my attention was split and only sort of caught the tail end of something being said. Anyone know of anything?
That would be very surprising.
Maybe Obama is creating a new cabinet-level Department of Jackasses and wants Krugman to be the director? They could roll the TSA into this new department too.
 
I thought I caught something on the radio yesterday about Obama wanting Krugman for some position in his cabinet... not sure, my attention was split and only sort of caught the tail end of something being said. Anyone know of anything?
That would be very surprising.
Maybe Obama is creating a new cabinet-level Department of Jackasses and wants Krugman to be the director? They could roll the TSA into this new department too.
Well the jerk store called, and they're running out of you!
 
I thought I caught something on the radio yesterday about Obama wanting Krugman for some position in his cabinet... not sure, my attention was split and only sort of caught the tail end of something being said. Anyone know of anything?
That would be very surprising.
Yea, exactly. It caught me by surprise and grabbed my attention but when I started to really listen I could not really figure out what they were talking about. I am so use to my DVR on tv that my hand actually started towards where my remote usually is to rewind it before I realized what I was doing. :lol:
 
One Point Seven SevenThat’s the current interest rate on 10-year US bonds.Remember, back in 2009 there was a big debate between people like me, who said that we were in a liquidity trap and that interest rates would stay low as long as the economy was depressed, and people like the WSJ editorial page and Niall Ferguson, who said that government borrowing would bring on the bond vigilantes and send rates soaring.How’s it going?And just to be clear: this isn’t just about I-told-you-so. We’re talking about different models, different visions of how the economy works. Their vision led to calls for austerity now now now; mine said that the overwhelming danger was that we wouldn’t provide enough stimulus, and that we would pull back too soon. Sure enough, we didn’t and we did. And now catastrophe looms.
 
One Point Seven Seven

That’s the current interest rate on 10-year US bonds.

Remember, back in 2009 there was a big debate between people like me, who said that we were in a liquidity trap and that interest rates would stay low as long as the economy was depressed, and people like the WSJ editorial page and Niall Ferguson, who said that government borrowing would bring on the bond vigilantes and send rates soaring.

How’s it going?

And just to be clear: this isn’t just about I-told-you-so. We’re talking about different models, different visions of how the economy works. Their vision led to calls for austerity now now now; mine said that the overwhelming danger was that we wouldn’t provide enough stimulus, and that we would pull back too soon. Sure enough, we didn’t and we did. And now catastrophe looms.
:unsure:
 
So Capella gets a month for using the "V" word while making a hilarious joke buried deep inside a thread, but JACKASS in headlines not once but twice flies just fine?

Oh yeah, things are absolutely the same as Day 1.
Not a fan of this bitter, snitching version of GM.
A) I happen to like Krugman and think the title is beyond ridiculous. Not only is he a Nobel Prize winner, not only is he a product of the Ivy Leagues, but he accurately predicted our financial collapse years before it unraveled. He was highly critical of Bush's policies (rightly so) and I'm guessing that's the reason the OP thought to call him a 'jackass'.B) I happen to like Cappy and think his getting a month for using the scientific name for a female body part that flies on shows like The View is pretty lame. A month? Really? For that? And yet this flies just fine?

C) Who are you again?
Nobel Prize Winner... :excited: :hifive: :hifive: ...Jimmah Carter, Al Gore, Obama...you get one for being liberal intelligent.
fixed.
 
Lots of posts lately about the crisis in Europe. Sums it up here:

EurovillainsIt took bad thinking and bad policy by many players to get us into the state we’re in; rarely in the course of human events have so many worked so hard to do so much damage. But if I had to identify the players who really let us down the most, I think I’d point to European institutions that lent totally spurious intellectual credibility to the Pain Caucus. Specifically:- The OECD, which a year ago demanded both fiscal austerity and a sharp rise in interest rates, because, well, because. Recently the OECD surveyed Britain, concluded that inflation is likely to decline, unemployment to rise, and that the UK should therefore … continue with fiscal austerity and raise rates. As a correspondent wrote, “What planet are they living on? What planet am I living on?”- The ECB, which bought totally into the doctrine of expansionary austerity, despite overwhelming evidence that it was false, and proceeded to raise rates in the face of a deeply depressed economy — possibly the straw that breaks the euro’s back.- The BIS, which called for tighter monetary policy just three months ago, to fight a nonexistent inflationary threat. Did I mention that inflation expectations, as measured by the difference between yields on ordinary and index bonds, have been plunging like a stone?I haven’t developed a full theory of the sociology going on here. But these organizations should be doing some agonized soul-searching, asking how they got it so wrong while posing as high priests of economic expertise.
 
The Low-Inflation Trap (Slightly Wonkish)Looking at recent numbers, I’ve realized that there’s something else to worry about, beyond all the usual concerns. Let me call it the low-inflation trap; it’s something we’re very, very close to getting into.Usually we worry about a deflationary trap, which comes about as follows: suppose that the economy is depressed, that as a result prices begin falling, and interest rates are up against the zero lower bound. Then as deflationary expectations take hold, the real interest rate rises even as the nominal rate stays pinned at zero — and this rising real rate helps keep the economy depressed. Japan has been in this trap for a long time.But here’s what I’ve been thinking: we don’t have to get all the way to actual deflation for something like this to take hold. The key point is that long-term interest rates, which are what matter for spending, are effectively bounded some ways above zero. The reason is option value: the short rate could move up, but it can’t go down, so the yield curve has to be upward-sloping. Indeed, Japan’s 10-year rate is still 1 percent even though the short rate has been zero for many years and is likely to stay zero for years to come. (Yes, this is Keynes on liquidity preference).And you can make a pretty good case that the US 10-year rate would have a hard time moving much lower than it is now, even if people believe that we’re in full Lesser Depression mode.What this means is that much of any further decline in expected inflation — which has plunged lately — will translate into a rise in real interest rates. And that will be a drag on the economy, leading to further inflation declines. Basically, we can get into the functional equivalent of a deflationary trap long before we reach actual deflation. And it starts around now.Just trying to cheer everyone up.
 
It's a depressing (no pun intended) time to be an American. It's not so much because of what Obama's doing, but rather the loud voices of the opponents who will do EVERYTHING in their power to drag our economy down into the dumps.

Stimulus, what we need to get us out of this slump, is a dirty word, and effectively is a non-starter in much of America, and the world. Why is this? Largely due to political rhetoric and grandstanding, without a basic understanding of market fundamentals, specifically that our problem is DEMAND and not DEFICITS. The focus on austerity and budget cutting, to the exclusion of further stimulative events, will stretch out this recession into something much broader and deeper than it needs to be.

The political infighting has lead us to a political stalemate, where basically NOTHING is being done. To the democrats credit, they're blocking the republicans attempts to do BAD things, and to the republicans credit, they're attempting to prevent SOME bad things from taking place that the democrats want to do now (raising taxes on rich).

Both sides are not equally to blame, even though both are doing SOME good. I come down on the side where taxes need not be raised right now, although that's certainly a part of the long term deficit reduction strategy. Rather, we should be looking at ways to stimulate the economy by borrowing at record low rates, doing temporary tax cuts to stimulate demand, investing in infrastrucure...basically looking everywhere for ways we can reinvest in the country, while also stimulating demand.

People say the tragedy we're leaving to our children are the high deficits, where each child owes XX,XXX amount. But the real tragedy is that we're ruining this economy for years to come, cutting investment in things like education, basic research, and other low-income programs that take years to pay off. We're cutting our investments in our next generation, to basically benefit us now, and we're saying we're doing it, to benefit the next generation.

It's a cluster####.

 
IN one of the comments, this link was presented as debunking the idea that approximately 50% of american's don't pay taxes.

Would probably be interesting enough for its own thread.
Everybody who works or owns property pays taxes. The discussion ought to be about how many pay income taxes. I'm betting that a substantial percentage of Americans don't pay income taxes. Once we can finally agree that we are talking about income taxes here, then maybe we can dispense with this red herring.
 
'adonis said:
It's a depressing (no pun intended) time to be an American. It's not so much because of what Obama's doing, but rather the loud voices of the opponents who will do EVERYTHING in their power to drag our economy down into the dumps.Stimulus, what we need to get us out of this slump, is a dirty word, and effectively is a non-starter in much of America, and the world. Why is this? Largely due to political rhetoric and grandstanding, without a basic understanding of market fundamentals, specifically that our problem is DEMAND and not DEFICITS. The focus on austerity and budget cutting, to the exclusion of further stimulative events, will stretch out this recession into something much broader and deeper than it needs to be.The political infighting has lead us to a political stalemate, where basically NOTHING is being done. To the democrats credit, they're blocking the republicans attempts to do BAD things, and to the republicans credit, they're attempting to prevent SOME bad things from taking place that the democrats want to do now (raising taxes on rich).Both sides are not equally to blame, even though both are doing SOME good. I come down on the side where taxes need not be raised right now, although that's certainly a part of the long term deficit reduction strategy. Rather, we should be looking at ways to stimulate the economy by borrowing at record low rates, doing temporary tax cuts to stimulate demand, investing in infrastrucure...basically looking everywhere for ways we can reinvest in the country, while also stimulating demand.People say the tragedy we're leaving to our children are the high deficits, where each child owes XX,XXX amount. But the real tragedy is that we're ruining this economy for years to come, cutting investment in things like education, basic research, and other low-income programs that take years to pay off. We're cutting our investments in our next generation, to basically benefit us now, and we're saying we're doing it, to benefit the next generation.It's a cluster####.
You are such a blind partisan. The other side has a different economic philosophy as to what will pull us out of recession. And it ain't stimulus, because it has been tried and it didn't work. You know what insanity is? Trying the same failed tactics over and over again and expecting different results.
 
'adonis said:
It's a depressing (no pun intended) time to be an American. It's not so much because of what Obama's doing, but rather the loud voices of the opponents who will do EVERYTHING in their power to drag our economy down into the dumps.

Stimulus, what we need to get us out of this slump, is a dirty word, and effectively is a non-starter in much of America, and the world. Why is this? Largely due to political rhetoric and grandstanding, without a basic understanding of market fundamentals, specifically that our problem is DEMAND and not DEFICITS. The focus on austerity and budget cutting, to the exclusion of further stimulative events, will stretch out this recession into something much broader and deeper than it needs to be.

The political infighting has lead us to a political stalemate, where basically NOTHING is being done. To the democrats credit, they're blocking the republicans attempts to do BAD things, and to the republicans credit, they're attempting to prevent SOME bad things from taking place that the democrats want to do now (raising taxes on rich).

Both sides are not equally to blame, even though both are doing SOME good. I come down on the side where taxes need not be raised right now, although that's certainly a part of the long term deficit reduction strategy. Rather, we should be looking at ways to stimulate the economy by borrowing at record low rates, doing temporary tax cuts to stimulate demand, investing in infrastrucure...basically looking everywhere for ways we can reinvest in the country, while also stimulating demand.

People say the tragedy we're leaving to our children are the high deficits, where each child owes XX,XXX amount. But the real tragedy is that we're ruining this economy for years to come, cutting investment in things like education, basic research, and other low-income programs that take years to pay off. We're cutting our investments in our next generation, to basically benefit us now, and we're saying we're doing it, to benefit the next generation.

It's a cluster####.
Keep your chin up, adonis. Things will get better. After November 2012 when we have a new President you'll see things really start to look up for the good ol' USA (and for adonis as well).Here's

to remind you of the good times you once had. Hang in there, big guy. :hifive:
 
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'adonis said:
Stimulus, what we need to get us out of this slump, is a dirty word, and effectively is a non-starter in much of America, and the world. Why is this? Largely due to political rhetoric and grandstanding, without a basic understanding of market fundamentals, specifically that our problem is DEMAND and not DEFICITS.
I think largely the opposite. I think the only reason that the stimulus passed is because of political rhetoric and grandstanding. Plenty of special interests — and therefore plenty of politicians, and therefore plenty of partisan cheerleaders — LOVE the idea of a stimulus. IMO it's much harder, based on an understanding of market fundamentals, to be confident that a stimulus should benefit the general interest.
 
To be clear, based on my own (wildly imperfect) understanding of the arguments favoring a fiscal stimulus and the counterarguments against a fiscal stimulus, I think that a fiscal stimulus could theoretically work to temporarily reduce unemployment, increase productivity, and overall amount to a Good Thing (although that's debatable).

But I think when an actual stimulus is passed by actual politicians trying to please actual special-interest lobbyists, the result is very likely to be wasteful and inefficient.

 
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'adonis said:
Stimulus, what we need to get us out of this slump, is a dirty word, and effectively is a non-starter in much of America, and the world. Why is this? Largely due to political rhetoric and grandstanding, without a basic understanding of market fundamentals, specifically that our problem is DEMAND and not DEFICITS.
I think largely the opposite. I think the only reason that the stimulus passed is because of political rhetoric and grandstanding. Plenty of special interests — and therefore plenty of politicians, and therefore plenty of partisan cheerleaders — LOVE the idea of a stimulus. IMO it's much harder, based on an understanding of market fundamentals, to be confident that a stimulus should benefit the general interest.
It's strange, then, that partisan cheerleaders who love the idea of stimulus asked for so little of it the first time around, opting instead to start negotiations with half measures and winnow it down from there. And it's so popular, apparently, that it wasn't part of the policy discussion for the 3 years since then, despite the fact that the Keynesians who control the government have been hammering the point continuously. It's amusing that you conflate "market fundamentals" with "benefiting the general interest." I doubt the general public saw much return on the market's resurgence since 2008.
 
'adonis said:
It's a depressing (no pun intended) time to be an American. It's not so much because of what Obama's doing, but rather the loud voices of the opponents who will do EVERYTHING in their power to drag our economy down into the dumps.Stimulus, what we need to get us out of this slump, is a dirty word, and effectively is a non-starter in much of America, and the world. Why is this? Largely due to political rhetoric and grandstanding, without a basic understanding of market fundamentals, specifically that our problem is DEMAND and not DEFICITS. The focus on austerity and budget cutting, to the exclusion of further stimulative events, will stretch out this recession into something much broader and deeper than it needs to be.The political infighting has lead us to a political stalemate, where basically NOTHING is being done. To the democrats credit, they're blocking the republicans attempts to do BAD things, and to the republicans credit, they're attempting to prevent SOME bad things from taking place that the democrats want to do now (raising taxes on rich).Both sides are not equally to blame, even though both are doing SOME good. I come down on the side where taxes need not be raised right now, although that's certainly a part of the long term deficit reduction strategy. Rather, we should be looking at ways to stimulate the economy by borrowing at record low rates, doing temporary tax cuts to stimulate demand, investing in infrastrucure...basically looking everywhere for ways we can reinvest in the country, while also stimulating demand.People say the tragedy we're leaving to our children are the high deficits, where each child owes XX,XXX amount. But the real tragedy is that we're ruining this economy for years to come, cutting investment in things like education, basic research, and other low-income programs that take years to pay off. We're cutting our investments in our next generation, to basically benefit us now, and we're saying we're doing it, to benefit the next generation.It's a cluster####.
It's disturbing that you continue to assert that opposition to stimulus spending is purely political. It's not. We've had this debate. I voted for Obama - and can't recall ever voting Republican - but I'm opposed to stimulus spending. And I'm not alone in this view. Read more and educate yourself before making such misguided, blanket statements.
 
The Social ContractBy PAUL KRUGMANPublished: September 22, 2011 This week President Obama said the obvious: that wealthy Americans, many of whom pay remarkably little in taxes, should bear part of the cost of reducing the long-run budget deficit. And Republicans like Representative Paul Ryan responded with shrieks of “class warfare.”It was, of course, nothing of the sort. On the contrary, it’s people like Mr. Ryan, who want to exempt the very rich from bearing any of the burden of making our finances sustainable, who are waging class war.As background, it helps to know what has been happening to incomes over the past three decades. Detailed estimates from the Congressional Budget Office — which only go up to 2005, but the basic picture surely hasn’t changed — show that between 1979 and 2005 the inflation-adjusted income of families in the middle of the income distribution rose 21 percent. That’s growth, but it’s slow, especially compared with the 100 percent rise in median income over a generation after World War II.Meanwhile, over the same period, the income of the very rich, the top 100th of 1 percent of the income distribution, rose by 480 percent. No, that isn’t a misprint. In 2005 dollars, the average annual income of that group rose from $4.2 million to $24.3 million.So do the wealthy look to you like the victims of class warfare?To be fair, there is argument about the extent to which government policy was responsible for the spectacular disparity in income growth. What we know for sure, however, is that policy has consistently tilted to the advantage of the wealthy as opposed to the middle class.Some of the most important aspects of that tilt involved such things as the sustained attack on organized labor and financial deregulation, which created huge fortunes even as it paved the way for economic disaster. For today, however, let’s focus just on taxes.The budget office’s numbers show that the federal tax burden has fallen for all income classes, which itself runs counter to the rhetoric you hear from the usual suspects. But that burden has fallen much more, as a percentage of income, for the wealthy. Partly this reflects big cuts in top income tax rates, but, beyond that, there has been a major shift of taxation away from wealth and toward work: tax rates on corporate profits, capital gains and dividends have all fallen, while the payroll tax — the main tax paid by most workers — has gone up.And one consequence of the shift of taxation away from wealth and toward work is the creation of many situations in which — just as Warren Buffett and Mr. Obama say — people with multimillion-dollar incomes, who typically derive much of that income from capital gains and other sources that face low taxes, end up paying a lower overall tax rate than middle-class workers. And we’re not talking about a few exceptional cases.According to new estimates by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, one-fourth of those with incomes of more than $1 million a year pay income and payroll tax of 12.6 percent of their income or less, putting their tax burden below that of many in the middle class.Now, I know how the right will respond to these facts: with misleading statistics and dubious moral claims.On one side, we have the claim that the rising share of taxes paid by the rich shows that their burden is rising, not falling. To point out the obvious, the rich are paying more taxes because they’re much richer than they used to be. When middle-class incomes barely grow while the incomes of the wealthiest rise by a factor of six, how could the tax share of the rich not go up, even if their tax rate is falling?On the other side, we have the claim that the rich have the right to keep their money — which misses the point that all of us live in and benefit from being part of a larger society.Elizabeth Warren, the financial reformer who is now running for the United States Senate in Massachusetts, recently made some eloquent remarks to this effect that are, rightly, getting a lot of attention. “There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody,” she declared, pointing out that the rich can only get rich thanks to the “social contract” that provides a decent, functioning society in which they can prosper.Which brings us back to those cries of “class warfare.”Republicans claim to be deeply worried by budget deficits. Indeed, Mr. Ryan has called the deficit an “existential threat” to America. Yet they are insisting that the wealthy — who presumably have as much of a stake as everyone else in the nation’s future — should not be called upon to play any role in warding off that existential threat.Well, that amounts to a demand that a small number of very lucky people be exempted from the social contract that applies to everyone else. And that, in case you’re wondering, is what real class warfare looks like.
 
'adonis said:
It's a depressing (no pun intended) time to be an American. It's not so much because of what Obama's doing, but rather the loud voices of the opponents who will do EVERYTHING in their power to drag our economy down into the dumps.Stimulus, what we need to get us out of this slump, is a dirty word, and effectively is a non-starter in much of America, and the world. Why is this? Largely due to political rhetoric and grandstanding, without a basic understanding of market fundamentals, specifically that our problem is DEMAND and not DEFICITS. The focus on austerity and budget cutting, to the exclusion of further stimulative events, will stretch out this recession into something much broader and deeper than it needs to be.The political infighting has lead us to a political stalemate, where basically NOTHING is being done. To the democrats credit, they're blocking the republicans attempts to do BAD things, and to the republicans credit, they're attempting to prevent SOME bad things from taking place that the democrats want to do now (raising taxes on rich).Both sides are not equally to blame, even though both are doing SOME good. I come down on the side where taxes need not be raised right now, although that's certainly a part of the long term deficit reduction strategy. Rather, we should be looking at ways to stimulate the economy by borrowing at record low rates, doing temporary tax cuts to stimulate demand, investing in infrastrucure...basically looking everywhere for ways we can reinvest in the country, while also stimulating demand.People say the tragedy we're leaving to our children are the high deficits, where each child owes XX,XXX amount. But the real tragedy is that we're ruining this economy for years to come, cutting investment in things like education, basic research, and other low-income programs that take years to pay off. We're cutting our investments in our next generation, to basically benefit us now, and we're saying we're doing it, to benefit the next generation.It's a cluster####.
It's disturbing that you continue to assert that opposition to stimulus spending is purely political. It's not. We've had this debate. I voted for Obama - and can't recall ever voting Republican - but I'm opposed to stimulus spending. And I'm not alone in this view. Read more and educate yourself before making such misguided, blanket statements.
I do agree that plenty of democrats, including most of Obama's advisors, have been resistant to the idea that stimulus spending can help the economy.
 
It's strange, then, that partisan cheerleaders who love the idea of stimulus asked for so little of it the first time around, opting instead to start negotiations with half measures and winnow it down from there. And it's so popular, apparently, that it wasn't part of the policy discussion for the 3 years since then, despite the fact that the Keynesians who control the government have been hammering the point continuously.
I'd say we've had pretty much constant fiscal stimulus (in the form of sharply increasing government spending and budget deficits) for the last three years. It's just gone by another name: "business as usual."
 
'adonis said:
It's a depressing (no pun intended) time to be an American. It's not so much because of what Obama's doing, but rather the loud voices of the opponents who will do EVERYTHING in their power to drag our economy down into the dumps.Stimulus, what we need to get us out of this slump, is a dirty word, and effectively is a non-starter in much of America, and the world. Why is this? Largely due to political rhetoric and grandstanding, without a basic understanding of market fundamentals, specifically that our problem is DEMAND and not DEFICITS. The focus on austerity and budget cutting, to the exclusion of further stimulative events, will stretch out this recession into something much broader and deeper than it needs to be.The political infighting has lead us to a political stalemate, where basically NOTHING is being done. To the democrats credit, they're blocking the republicans attempts to do BAD things, and to the republicans credit, they're attempting to prevent SOME bad things from taking place that the democrats want to do now (raising taxes on rich).Both sides are not equally to blame, even though both are doing SOME good. I come down on the side where taxes need not be raised right now, although that's certainly a part of the long term deficit reduction strategy. Rather, we should be looking at ways to stimulate the economy by borrowing at record low rates, doing temporary tax cuts to stimulate demand, investing in infrastrucure...basically looking everywhere for ways we can reinvest in the country, while also stimulating demand.People say the tragedy we're leaving to our children are the high deficits, where each child owes XX,XXX amount. But the real tragedy is that we're ruining this economy for years to come, cutting investment in things like education, basic research, and other low-income programs that take years to pay off. We're cutting our investments in our next generation, to basically benefit us now, and we're saying we're doing it, to benefit the next generation.It's a cluster####.
It's disturbing that you continue to assert that opposition to stimulus spending is purely political. It's not. We've had this debate. I voted for Obama - and can't recall ever voting Republican - but I'm opposed to stimulus spending. And I'm not alone in this view. Read more and educate yourself before making such misguided, blanket statements.
I do agree that plenty of democrats, including most of Obama's advisors, have been resistant to the idea that stimulus spending can help the economy.
Well, one should not confuse GDP with economic growth. The stimulus boosted GDP through 2009 and early 2010. Graphs certainly show this. When the stimulus ended, the economy cratered again. This seems to indicate to people of the Keynesian persuasion that we might have been able to prolong growth if we kept in place more stimulus. The problem is whether the stimulus was really indicating economic growth. If so, why was the GDP wholly dependent on government subsidies? The increase in GDP was not economic growth at all, but merely indicative of an increase in government spending. Once the government spending ended, the lack of economic growth is easily seen in the GDP data.Problem is, it wouldn't have mattered if the stimulus was one trillion dollars or ten trillion dollars (at least to the GDP - it matters for other reasons related to growth of the money supply), once the stimulus ended, the GDP crashed, indicating that it did nothing at all to "stimulate" the economy.
 
'Maurile Tremblay said:
'pantagrapher said:
It's strange, then, that partisan cheerleaders who love the idea of stimulus asked for so little of it the first time around, opting instead to start negotiations with half measures and winnow it down from there. And it's so popular, apparently, that it wasn't part of the policy discussion for the 3 years since then, despite the fact that the Keynesians who control the government have been hammering the point continuously.
I'd say we've had pretty much constant fiscal stimulus (in the form of sharply increasing government spending and budget deficits) for the last three years. It's just gone by another name: "business as usual."
We went over this months ago.
 
'Maurile Tremblay said:
'pantagrapher said:
It's strange, then, that partisan cheerleaders who love the idea of stimulus asked for so little of it the first time around, opting instead to start negotiations with half measures and winnow it down from there. And it's so popular, apparently, that it wasn't part of the policy discussion for the 3 years since then, despite the fact that the Keynesians who control the government have been hammering the point continuously.
I'd say we've had pretty much constant fiscal stimulus (in the form of sharply increasing government spending and budget deficits) for the last three years. It's just gone by another name: "business as usual."
We went over this months ago.
Saying that it's not Obama's fault that spending has increased is not the same thing as saying that spending hasn't increased. As Krugman points out, it has increased quite a bit. (For our purposes, there's absolutely no reason not to count spending on safety-net programs. And the idea that federal aid to state and local governments didn't lead to an overall increase in government spending is laughable at first blush; I'd have to see some data to back that up; Krugman doesn't offer any.)More importantly, it's not just spending that constitutes a Keynesian stimulus. It's deficit-spending. (Higher spending along with a proportionally higher tax burden wouldn't be a stimulus.) If GDP went down, that makes the same amount of spending more of a stimulus than it would otherwise be, not less of a stimulus — because a lower GDP results in reduced tax revenues, which results in higher budget deficits.

 
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It's a depressing (no pun intended) time to be an American. It's not so much because of what Obama's doing, but rather the loud voices of the opponents who will do EVERYTHING in their power to drag our economy down into the dumps.Stimulus, what we need to get us out of this slump, is a dirty word, and effectively is a non-starter in much of America, and the world. Why is this? Largely due to political rhetoric and grandstanding, without a basic understanding of market fundamentals, specifically that our problem is DEMAND and not DEFICITS. The focus on austerity and budget cutting, to the exclusion of further stimulative events, will stretch out this recession into something much broader and deeper than it needs to be.The political infighting has lead us to a political stalemate, where basically NOTHING is being done. To the democrats credit, they're blocking the republicans attempts to do BAD things, and to the republicans credit, they're attempting to prevent SOME bad things from taking place that the democrats want to do now (raising taxes on rich).Both sides are not equally to blame, even though both are doing SOME good. I come down on the side where taxes need not be raised right now, although that's certainly a part of the long term deficit reduction strategy. Rather, we should be looking at ways to stimulate the economy by borrowing at record low rates, doing temporary tax cuts to stimulate demand, investing in infrastrucure...basically looking everywhere for ways we can reinvest in the country, while also stimulating demand.People say the tragedy we're leaving to our children are the high deficits, where each child owes XX,XXX amount. But the real tragedy is that we're ruining this economy for years to come, cutting investment in things like education, basic research, and other low-income programs that take years to pay off. We're cutting our investments in our next generation, to basically benefit us now, and we're saying we're doing it, to benefit the next generation.It's a cluster####.
It's disturbing that you continue to assert that opposition to stimulus spending is purely political. It's not. We've had this debate. I voted for Obama - and can't recall ever voting Republican - but I'm opposed to stimulus spending. And I'm not alone in this view. Read more and educate yourself before making such misguided, blanket statements.
What I assert is that our problem is low demand, not deficits. I further assert that republicans, specifically tea party republicans, are using their influence in congress to prevent meaningful compromise on issues from taking place that would improve the situation. I didn't every say all democrats favor stimulus spending, I didn't say all republicans oppose it, I was fairly measured in my blame above, saying that both democrats and republicans have bad ideas that the other side is preventing from moving forward, but as someone who thinks demand is the problem, I see the house GOP's attempts to stall the process for anything short of their agenda, with the blessing of the GOP leadership, troubling.I think you should re-read what I said and you might see that it's not such a blanket statement as it might have seemed before. Overall, my sentiments were that nothing productive seems to be getting done now, and a large part of the focus in our political system is on trying to fix the WRONG problem.
 
To be clear, based on my own (wildly imperfect) understanding of the arguments favoring a fiscal stimulus and the counterarguments against a fiscal stimulus, I think that a fiscal stimulus could theoretically work to temporarily reduce unemployment, increase productivity, and overall amount to a Good Thing (although that's debatable).But I think when an actual stimulus is passed by actual politicians trying to please actual special-interest lobbyists, the result is very likely to be wasteful and inefficient.
I think that's certainly a concern, and I have my doubts about the ability of congress to put forward a functional stimulus, but it's our best bet. With your (and my admittedly) imperfect arguments on this issue, do you see any reason to believe that further austerity measures/spending cuts will lead us out of this recession?
 
IN one of the comments, this link was presented as debunking the idea that approximately 50% of american's don't pay taxes.

Would probably be interesting enough for its own thread.
Everybody who works or owns property pays taxes. The discussion ought to be about how many pay income taxes. I'm betting that a substantial percentage of Americans don't pay income taxes. Once we can finally agree that we are talking about income taxes here, then maybe we can dispense with this red herring.
Why should the discussion solely be about income taxes?
 
Stimulus, what we need to get us out of this slump, is a dirty word, and effectively is a non-starter in much of America, and the world. Why is this? Largely due to political rhetoric and grandstanding, without a basic understanding of market fundamentals, specifically that our problem is DEMAND and not DEFICITS.
I think largely the opposite. I think the only reason that the stimulus passed is because of political rhetoric and grandstanding. Plenty of special interests — and therefore plenty of politicians, and therefore plenty of partisan cheerleaders — LOVE the idea of a stimulus. IMO it's much harder, based on an understanding of market fundamentals, to be confident that a stimulus should benefit the general interest.
The first stimulus passed due to rhetoric and it was pitched as the solution to our problem, and it didn't work out to be that solution.Now rhetoric and grandstanding is focused on the other side, and it's likely that if we just cut spending and stick to an austerity path forward, this too will not provide a solution.I also find it hard to reconcile your post here with your next post that you can see how a stimulus could be a good thing. Is it simply the difference between the ideal stimulus and the stimulus likely to come out of washington due to special interests?
 
You are such a blind partisan. The other side has a different economic philosophy as to what will pull us out of recession. And it ain't stimulus, because it has been tried and it didn't work. You know what insanity is? Trying the same failed tactics over and over again and expecting different results.
Greece is trying austerity to solve their problems, and it ain't workin'. So are other countries, and it ain't working. I have yet to see any good reason why it should work, while I've seen quite a few as to why a stimulus could work.Is it insane to go back to the doctor when the first attempt to cure your illness didn't work? Answer: It's not. Sometimes the dosage needs to be adjusted. But look at austerity being tried all over the world to solve their problems. You see a lot of different doses, and in almost no cases is austerity working.
 
You are such a blind partisan. The other side has a different economic philosophy as to what will pull us out of recession. And it ain't stimulus, because it has been tried and it didn't work. You know what insanity is? Trying the same failed tactics over and over again and expecting different results.
Greece is trying austerity to solve their problems, and it ain't workin'. So are other countries, and it ain't working. I have yet to see any good reason why it should work, while I've seen quite a few as to why a stimulus could work.Is it insane to go back to the doctor when the first attempt to cure your illness didn't work? Answer: It's not. Sometimes the dosage needs to be adjusted. But look at austerity being tried all over the world to solve their problems. You see a lot of different doses, and in almost no cases is austerity working.
These countries cannot afford the entitlements, isn't that a big part of the problem, so they have to cut back?
 
IN one of the comments, this link was presented as debunking the idea that approximately 50% of american's don't pay taxes.

Would probably be interesting enough for its own thread.
Everybody who works or owns property pays taxes. The discussion ought to be about how many pay income taxes. I'm betting that a substantial percentage of Americans don't pay income taxes. Once we can finally agree that we are talking about income taxes here, then maybe we can dispense with this red herring.
Why should the discussion solely be about income taxes?
Why do you think that I think that it is? I was responding to a specific comment you made. I was not supporting cutting taxes as the only solution (or anything else for that matter). At least in the response that I made.
 
You are such a blind partisan. The other side has a different economic philosophy as to what will pull us out of recession. And it ain't stimulus, because it has been tried and it didn't work. You know what insanity is? Trying the same failed tactics over and over again and expecting different results.
Greece is trying austerity to solve their problems, and it ain't workin'. So are other countries, and it ain't working. I have yet to see any good reason why it should work, while I've seen quite a few as to why a stimulus could work.Is it insane to go back to the doctor when the first attempt to cure your illness didn't work? Answer: It's not. Sometimes the dosage needs to be adjusted. But look at austerity being tried all over the world to solve their problems. You see a lot of different doses, and in almost no cases is austerity working.
These countries cannot afford the entitlements, isn't that a big part of the problem, so they have to cut back?
Nor can we - that is the problem. Even when times were good, we couldn't afford entitlements.As to austerity not working, solutions take time. I don't think enough time has passed to know if austerity is working for Greece or not.
 
To be clear, based on my own (wildly imperfect) understanding of the arguments favoring a fiscal stimulus and the counterarguments against a fiscal stimulus, I think that a fiscal stimulus could theoretically work to temporarily reduce unemployment, increase productivity, and overall amount to a Good Thing (although that's debatable).

But I think when an actual stimulus is passed by actual politicians trying to please actual special-interest lobbyists, the result is very likely to be wasteful and inefficient.
I think that's certainly a concern, and I have my doubts about the ability of congress to put forward a functional stimulus, but it's our best bet. With your (and my admittedly) imperfect arguments on this issue, do you see any reason to believe that further austerity measures/spending cuts will lead us out of this recession?
Of course.For one thing, see Ireland.

More importantly, I think we'll be led out of the recession no matter what policy we follow. Austerity, stimulus, something in between . . . recessions don't last forever in an economy like ours. Whatever we do will lead us out of the recession. (But some things we might do would prove much more costly than other things.)

Even more importantly, I think the best way to get out of a recession is to follow sound fiscal policy and to focus on increasing productivity. I also think that the private sector will generally spend a dollar at the current margin more productively than the government will. So transferring money from the private sector to the government (by way of increased government spending) may well lead us out of the recession more slowly (and with greater lasting budgetary pain) than the alternative strategy of reducing government spending, thus reducing the current or future tax burden, and thus likely enhancing our long-term economic outlook.

 
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To be clear, based on my own (wildly imperfect) understanding of the arguments favoring a fiscal stimulus and the counterarguments against a fiscal stimulus, I think that a fiscal stimulus could theoretically work to temporarily reduce unemployment, increase productivity, and overall amount to a Good Thing™ (although that's debatable).

But I think when an actual stimulus is passed by actual politicians trying to please actual special-interest lobbyists, the result is very likely to be wasteful and inefficient.
I think that's certainly a concern, and I have my doubts about the ability of congress to put forward a functional stimulus, but it's our best bet. With your (and my admittedly) imperfect arguments on this issue, do you see any reason to believe that further austerity measures/spending cuts will lead us out of this recession?
Of course.For one thing, see Ireland.

More importantly, I think we'll be led out of the recession no matter what policy we follow. Austerity, stimulus, something in between . . . recessions don't last forever in an economy like ours. Whatever we do will lead us out of it. (But some things we might do would prove much more costly than other things.)
Not sure about that. Some of the things we have tried may be keeping us in it longer.
 
As to austerity not working, solutions take time. I don't think enough time has passed to know if austerity is working for Greece or not.
Even when a lot of time has passed, we won't know whether it worked better or worse than any number of alternatives. The experiment has no control group.
 
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To be clear, based on my own (wildly imperfect) understanding of the arguments favoring a fiscal stimulus and the counterarguments against a fiscal stimulus, I think that a fiscal stimulus could theoretically work to temporarily reduce unemployment, increase productivity, and overall amount to a Good Thing (although that's debatable).

But I think when an actual stimulus is passed by actual politicians trying to please actual special-interest lobbyists, the result is very likely to be wasteful and inefficient.
I think that's certainly a concern, and I have my doubts about the ability of congress to put forward a functional stimulus, but it's our best bet. With your (and my admittedly) imperfect arguments on this issue, do you see any reason to believe that further austerity measures/spending cuts will lead us out of this recession?
Of course.For one thing, see Ireland.

More importantly, I think we'll be led out of the recession no matter what policy we follow. Austerity, stimulus, something in between . . . recessions don't last forever in an economy like ours. Whatever we do will lead us out of the recession. (But some things we might do would prove much more costly than other things.)

Even more importantly, I think the best way to get out of a recession is to follow sound fiscal policy and to focus on increasing productivity. I also think that the private sector will generally spend a dollar at the current margin more productively than the government will. So transferring money from the private sector to the government (by way of increased government spending) may well lead us out of the recession more slowly (and with greater lasting budgetary pain) than the alternative strategy of reducing government spending, thus reducing the current or future tax burden, and thus likely enhancing our long-term economic outlook.
It doesn't look like Ireland is a good example, since any improvements it's experiencing seem to be due to some combination of deflation and exporting more goods, rather than creating or encouraging job creation internally. I agree though about sound fiscal policy, although I think defining it is difficult, as many people with a lot of experience disagree on what that looks like.

Regarding the private industry, I agree that in general private industry spends a dollar better, but with low demand, even if they have a dollar in hand, that doesn't mean that they will spend it right now, either on a project, or on employment, until they see demand increasing. To me that means that while private industry in the (primarily) free market is the best way to spend money and to achieve efficiency and productivity, the whole system relies on demand, and in times of recession, it's lacking, especially in deep ones.

So essentially, the question I ask in this situation is, what is the most efficient way to stimulate demand in the economy FASTER than it otherwise would be increased otherwise, because I agree eventually it'll come back regardless. To me, the biggest question is how can policies increase demand. Do you ask a different question?

 
As to austerity not working, solutions take time. I don't think enough time has passed to know if austerity is working for Greece or not.
Even when a lot of time has passed, we won't know whether it worked better or worse than any number of alternatives. The experiment has no control group.
There is no economic experiment with a control group. Hard to apply the scientific method to some things.
 
To be clear, based on my own (wildly imperfect) understanding of the arguments favoring a fiscal stimulus and the counterarguments against a fiscal stimulus, I think that a fiscal stimulus could theoretically work to temporarily reduce unemployment, increase productivity, and overall amount to a Good Thing™ (although that's debatable).

But I think when an actual stimulus is passed by actual politicians trying to please actual special-interest lobbyists, the result is very likely to be wasteful and inefficient.
I think that's certainly a concern, and I have my doubts about the ability of congress to put forward a functional stimulus, but it's our best bet. With your (and my admittedly) imperfect arguments on this issue, do you see any reason to believe that further austerity measures/spending cuts will lead us out of this recession?
Of course.For one thing, see Ireland.

More importantly, I think we'll be led out of the recession no matter what policy we follow. Austerity, stimulus, something in between . . . recessions don't last forever in an economy like ours. Whatever we do will lead us out of the recession. (But some things we might do would prove much more costly than other things.)

Even more importantly, I think the best way to get out of a recession is to follow sound fiscal policy and to focus on increasing productivity. I also think that the private sector will generally spend a dollar at the current margin more productively than the government will. So transferring money from the private sector to the government (by way of increased government spending) may well lead us out of the recession more slowly (and with greater lasting budgetary pain) than the alternative strategy of reducing government spending, thus reducing the current or future tax burden, and thus likely enhancing our long-term economic outlook.
It doesn't look like Ireland is a good example, since any improvements it's experiencing seem to be due to some combination of deflation and exporting more goods, rather than creating or encouraging job creation internally. I agree though about sound fiscal policy, although I think defining it is difficult, as many people with a lot of experience disagree on what that looks like.

Regarding the private industry, I agree that in general private industry spends a dollar better, but with low demand, even if they have a dollar in hand, that doesn't mean that they will spend it right now, either on a project, or on employment, until they see demand increasing. To me that means that while private industry in the (primarily) free market is the best way to spend money and to achieve efficiency and productivity, the whole system relies on demand, and in times of recession, it's lacking, especially in deep ones.

So essentially, the question I ask in this situation is, what is the most efficient way to stimulate demand in the economy FASTER than it otherwise would be increased otherwise, because I agree eventually it'll come back regardless. To me, the biggest question is how can policies increase demand. Do you ask a different question?
Allow the housing market to bottom.
 

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