HellToupee
Footballguy
Going into a meeting. I sent my picks for round 4 to Carl W Football so send PM to him
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PDSL3 Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter krsone21
- Start date
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
The suspense is killing me...
Bamac
Footballguy
That seems late.
jeaton6
Footballguy
False Start
Footballguy
I was targeting him at the turn, it helped in the delay. Actually figures i would be out to lunch with my daughter when my pick came up.
It's partly that he was so bad in the 6 games last season and partly because without the two outstanding back to back fantasy games his rookie season he's been otherwise pretty ordinary.
Usually I'm not big on throwing out a players best game or two but in his case you had this whopping anomlay of almost 25% of his career fantasy production having occured in just 2 games-both of which came back to back. That's hard to overlook. It was a concern for many heading into this past season and the more he grew his career sample size the more glaring this 2 game anomaly began to appear, at least it did to me.
I don't know how the new staff will use him but hard to do better than being an every down back getting a heavy workload like he's had his entire career. Maybe he's not the third down back next season or the main goal line back but either way he was about as bad for fantasy last season as a RB can be getting the volume he was getting. So to me it's not simply forgetting a guy who got hurt and assuming with good health he's going to just be the consensus top 5 RB many projected him to be entering this past season.
Not that I'm trying to bag on him. I'd probably have him rated right now as the third best RB that was available when you took him and if I wanted to play it safer would put him just behind Gio. I just think unless he becomes a 60 catch back he's going to be more or less average, not the fantasy production we saw his rookie season.
It seems about right to me. Not that it's not good value but it just seems about right especially considering that Ben Tate recently got picked and I'd have rather had Tate.
Folks did go wild on TE's and I thought a few got picked a little early but one of those few was certainly not Pitta, thought that was great value.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Cordarrelle is a bit of a swing for the fences pick. But I like his chances working with Norv.
jeaton6
Footballguy
I know he was solid a couple years back but I've honestly never seen more hype around a 29 year old player who has done almost nothing in this league. It is just amazing to me.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Who, Pitta? I think you're overstating the age thing. He's only going into his 5th year in the league. He's an older guy because he came out of BYU.
If you look at his trend, it was pointing straight up until that injury destroyed his season last year.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Yep Pitta. I get it. He was on a positive trend and there's not a lot of target competition but a $21 million contract for a guy who has 120 career catches is insane to me. I get that from a. Fantasy perspective he should be solid but a Middish TE1 not sure about that.
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False Start
Footballguy
So what has Witten done so awful that he is now the 8th TE gone in redraft formats? Pitta went before him, yuck.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I've always seemed to have a blind spot with Witten. I'm not sure I've ever had him on a team.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
No, "great value" was Pitta going in the 7th two months ago in the WSLs. As a 3rd rounder, not so much.
I'm high on Pitta this year (to the point where I darn near took him at that spot in said WSL despite already owning Graham), but if this is his new going rate, looks like someone else will be paying it in my leagues.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
These PDSL leagues give 2 PPR for TEs.
If it was only 1 PPR then of course there were other options than Pitta.
If it was only 1 PPR then of course there were other options than Pitta.
False Start
Footballguy
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
when you say my leagues....I am assuming by that you mean your leagues here in the Mock Draft Forum and not your leagues back home or whatever.....Mr. Irrelevant said:
anyway....I have seen some sights/experts that have Pitta ranked as a top 5 TE (the 5th TE) for next year.......obviously that is debatable....but...if that holds true, in this 2PPR format he may actually be wroth a 3rd round pick....now you may totally disagree that he will finish top 5.....and thats fine, but a top 5 TE in this format may very well be worth a 3rd round pick.....especially with 16 teams and not just 10 or 12....
in normal scoring and smaller league sizes, things are much different......lasting to the 7th was a crazy fluke for some reason and something that doesn't normally happen here.....I think his injury/etc had him hiding or non existent on whatever lists people were using at the time.....
I know I commented on almost taking him earlier as well back when the WSL's drafted, but also had Graham on board and needed to go elsewhere.....no way he makes it down there again.....
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False Start
Footballguy
Thats great and all, but Pitta is not a Top 5 TE nor has ever been. Not even gonna get into it because it is such nonsense to think he is a Top 5 TE.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
in this format last year the 10th ranked TE was the 63rd highest scorer in the league....if you give every team one QB and don't count QB's from 17 on.....TE10 bumps up to the 53rd highest scorer....that puts TE10 in the 3rd round conversation....so even if you think he could be top 10....the numbers say a top 10 TE could be somewhat worthy of a 3rd round selection.....and I'm not even a numbers guy...
HellToupee
Footballguy
I'm not a big fan of talking in absolutes
jeaton6
Footballguy
QB10 was probably a top 25 scorer so should they go in the 2nd round? I'll bet similar point delta to QB20 as to TE20 as well.
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Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
jeaton6
Footballguy
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
This ain't exactly my first Survivor League rodeo, pardner. You're talking to a guy who took Graham at 1.04 in WSL2, so it's not as though I'm somehow missing how valuable a good TE can be in these leagues.Andy Dufresne said:
I think it's certainly possible Pitta winds up as a top-5 TE this season. I don't think that possibility (which I'd put at less likely than not) justifies a 3rd-rounder - not when there are any number of guys who might pull off the feat who I'd guess will still be around 3-4 rounds later.
FWIW, if forced to choose I'd rather take Pitta at 3.14 than Rudolph at 3.03.
False Start
Footballguy
Owen Daniels as well as other passing options like Smith, Smith and Rice.
I've got him rated at TE4. Had he not got hurt last year he'd have flirted with 100 catches. Only thing that can stop him is injuries.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
False Start
Footballguy
100 catches and the only thing that can stop him is injuries, what stopped him the years he didnt get hurt? Now its not even serious talk anymore. So I guess he is after Graham, Gronk and Thomas. I have Witten, Reed, Cameron, Davis and Rudolph all ahead of him. I even have some not drafted yet ahead of him. The Pitta love is on overload.
HellToupee
Footballguy
I think TE is the most volatile position at this point this season. I think you can make a valid argument for as many as 11 TEs that could potentially finish top 5.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Pitta had to compete with Boldin and Rice a couple years back. The addition of Steve Smith in Baltimore is not that big of a deal, IMO. If anything it helps Pitta, especially considering he gained a TE friendly coordinator.
Jordan Cameron? He had 2 TDs in his last 11 games and lost the TE friendly coordinator that made his game.
Jordan Reed isn't going to have to compete for targets? Especially with their new guy in town?
HellToupee did get it right though in that there are a lot of guys that could finish top 5. Pitta belongs in that conversation. And is the least risky pick with the highest chance to be a week to week contributor, IMO.
You want to talk about a risky pick in a survivor league? How about Gronk? He didn't even have ACL surgery until the 2nd week of January. There's a big likelihood he starts the season on PUP.
Jordan Cameron? He had 2 TDs in his last 11 games and lost the TE friendly coordinator that made his game.
Jordan Reed isn't going to have to compete for targets? Especially with their new guy in town?
HellToupee did get it right though in that there are a lot of guys that could finish top 5. Pitta belongs in that conversation. And is the least risky pick with the highest chance to be a week to week contributor, IMO.
You want to talk about a risky pick in a survivor league? How about Gronk? He didn't even have ACL surgery until the 2nd week of January. There's a big likelihood he starts the season on PUP.
It's an evolution of things. Boldins departure being one big step. Flacco's growth and trust in Pitta being another step. Pitt's growth as a NFL football player being huge. You folks act like due to his age he's been kicking around forever. You are talking about a guy who was barely active as a rookie who was hurt for most of last season. He's not even played the equalivaent of 3 full seasons in one of the most difficult positoins to adapt to and somehow he's reached his ceiling.
Than you have the makeup of the offense as a whole. A coach who has traditionally run TE friendly schemes, both starting WR's much more adept at deeper routes,both have evolved into a little more but not neither are big options in the short to intermediate game. What they do accomoplish is opening up the field for the best short/intermediate receiver on the team. That's Pitta. It's why at far less than 100% he got targetted 33 times in 4 games last year and caught 20 passes. He's Flacco's guy the way Jason Whitten has been for Romo these past few years.
I take exception to your comment this is not a serious discussion. Was it serious for anyone to project Cameron to have a big year last season despite doing squat his first two years? It's a good thing fantasy sports is not as easy as connecting the dots to past performance. It requires a little more thought at times.
Lastly if anyone is ranking Vernon Davis over Pitta you might want to take a good long look at his production when Crabtree is healthy. In a 2 point TE PPR you'll be praying for TD's every week to hit double digits.
ETA- I think every other TE you listed is in the discussion. I've just got Pitta rated ahead of them but it's close, almost splitting hairs. But all of those guys were picked in the same range as Pitta. I'm more down on Cameron than most, feel like he was a function of Chud/Norv and a usage player. I think he's solid but statistically takes a step back. For the same reasons I'm down on Cameron I'm high on Rudolph, the Norv angle plus I think even if he's stuck with Cassell it's an updgrade. A few of those guys could push Julius and Reed is one of them. Obviously huge health red flags and more weapons to contend with are big concerns but had he not got hurt likely would have turned in all-time top 3 rookie TE season. I feel like Whitten is on the decline but he's gets major props for durablity and if he can get back to the 130-140 target usage he'll pick it up on sheer volume. I got no problem with anyone who would have any of these guys as high as #4 if not #3 over Julius.
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Shadowfax
Footballguy
Why is everyone so uppity about top 5 when he was picked TE7? Pitta definitely belongs in the TE 4-10 range. That's undeniable. Now is he worth a 3rd rounder? Lets look at where Andy's picking. He's either taking him at 3.14 or 4.03, as Pitta is not making it back to him in round 5.
So if he's really high on Pitta and there were 5 other WRs he'd be fine with at 4.03, taking him at 3.14 is fine. You sometimes have to reach a bit when you're on the ends. If there's anything you learn in these league, take a player if you like him. Most of the time, he's not getting back to you.
So if he's really high on Pitta and there were 5 other WRs he'd be fine with at 4.03, taking him at 3.14 is fine. You sometimes have to reach a bit when you're on the ends. If there's anything you learn in these league, take a player if you like him. Most of the time, he's not getting back to you.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Yes Gronk is risky and IMO it's priced into the pick just like last year. If he's ready and stays healthy he's the number 1 TE. If not he's the number 1 TE when he comes back and while he's out Vereen gets a bump. Win win for me. Note: I'm confident I can survive if Gronk misses time...you should see my SSL draft last year and the result was good too.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
what about the Rudolph pick?
jeaton6
Footballguy
SOD on Opposite Day.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Thanks! Number 47 paying dividends! Great pick False Start.
HellToupee
Footballguy
krsone21
Footballguy
5.01 Matthews Stafford QB6 DET
I figured I better grab a QB now because it is a long ways until my next pick. Stafford finished around QB5 last year and I got him at QB6 which is around where he should go as a QB. I had a couple of other QB's I was debating on which I won't name at this time because they are still on the board. I decided to go with Stafford though because the receiving core got better this year during free agency. So I figure he probably will once again end up somewhere in the top 6 for QB's.
1.01 LeSean McCoy RB1 PHI
2.16 Zac Stacy RB16 STL
I'm really happy with this RB group. I won't have to worry about a 3rd RB for a while concentrating on other positions for now. LeSean McCoy is amazing. Zac Stacy had a very good rookie season and I don't see why he can't be just as good if not better this season. A solid start with the RB position. I was actually planning on taking either Cameron Jordan or second WR here instead of Stacy but he seemed too good to pass up at the end of round 2.
3.01 Randall Cobb WR11 GB
Really happy with Cobb as my #1 WR. Last season before he got injured he was putting up top 10 ppg at the WR position. So here is to hoping he can stay healthy this season. I had hoped to have a second WR at this point but like I said I felt like Stacy was to good a value to pass up at the end of round 2 and I also felt like I needed to grab a QB and TE at the 4/5 turn because it was a loooooooooong ways until my next picks and I didn't want to take a chance on a QB and TE run. Plus WR is deep so I feel I can grab some nice WR's in the middle of the draft that will give me good depth.
4.16 Greg Olsen TE10 CAR
I was happy to land Greg Olsen at the end of the 4th round. The way TE's were going off the board I didn't think there would be any good TE's left to choose from. I almost took Jordan Cameron at the 2/3 turn but decided to wait hoping to land someone like Olsen, Reed, Pitta, or Rudolph. I was happy at least one of my TE targets made it back to me. With not much at WR in Carolina Olsen may have a uptick in targets this season. Maybe not a huge uptick but even a small uptick will put him in the top 7 or 8 in TE's.
I figured I better grab a QB now because it is a long ways until my next pick. Stafford finished around QB5 last year and I got him at QB6 which is around where he should go as a QB. I had a couple of other QB's I was debating on which I won't name at this time because they are still on the board. I decided to go with Stafford though because the receiving core got better this year during free agency. So I figure he probably will once again end up somewhere in the top 6 for QB's.
1.01 LeSean McCoy RB1 PHI
2.16 Zac Stacy RB16 STL
I'm really happy with this RB group. I won't have to worry about a 3rd RB for a while concentrating on other positions for now. LeSean McCoy is amazing. Zac Stacy had a very good rookie season and I don't see why he can't be just as good if not better this season. A solid start with the RB position. I was actually planning on taking either Cameron Jordan or second WR here instead of Stacy but he seemed too good to pass up at the end of round 2.
3.01 Randall Cobb WR11 GB
Really happy with Cobb as my #1 WR. Last season before he got injured he was putting up top 10 ppg at the WR position. So here is to hoping he can stay healthy this season. I had hoped to have a second WR at this point but like I said I felt like Stacy was to good a value to pass up at the end of round 2 and I also felt like I needed to grab a QB and TE at the 4/5 turn because it was a loooooooooong ways until my next picks and I didn't want to take a chance on a QB and TE run. Plus WR is deep so I feel I can grab some nice WR's in the middle of the draft that will give me good depth.
4.16 Greg Olsen TE10 CAR
I was happy to land Greg Olsen at the end of the 4th round. The way TE's were going off the board I didn't think there would be any good TE's left to choose from. I almost took Jordan Cameron at the 2/3 turn but decided to wait hoping to land someone like Olsen, Reed, Pitta, or Rudolph. I was happy at least one of my TE targets made it back to me. With not much at WR in Carolina Olsen may have a uptick in targets this season. Maybe not a huge uptick but even a small uptick will put him in the top 7 or 8 in TE's.
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Bamac
Footballguy
Updated through 5.04
Bamac
Footballguy
I have to stop picking in the middle of the night. Not awful, but I left better players on the board.
False Start
Footballguy
The Ravens just signed a legit TE to steal targets, the same type of player as Boldin a gritty good older WR with a lot still to prove, Rice is going to get his catches and you think that helps a older TE coming off injury? Dude is going to be 29 this coming season well past his prime and still has Flacco as a QB and no elite season to speak of yet we talk about him as a Top 5 TE? Good luck to you in your money drafts.
Cameron, while I am not his biggest fan, his upside is better than Pittas. He has already had a better season in his third year than Pitta has ever had. He is younger and still the eyeball test tells you clearly more talented. The explosiveness is still there, Pitta is older coming off a hip injury and if you wanna talk last season Pitta was the 16th best TE in PPG in standard ppr in his games played.
I never mentioned anything about Reed competing for targets, but I feel he is a better player and put up 16 fewer catches than Pitta has in his best season in his rookie season and we have not seen his best yet, have we in Pitta? Its funny you say competing targets is a good thing for Pitta but doesnt help Reed?
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I doubt Daniels steals many targets anymore. He was brought in to help Kubiak.
You keep talking about Pitta's age. There are plenty of late 20's TEs that do well. It's not like we're talking about an RB.
You also keep hammering on the "no elite season" yet, but then you talk about guys you think are shoo in's to be better than him...that ALSO haven't had an elite season yet.
You're kinda crazy.
You keep talking about Pitta's age. There are plenty of late 20's TEs that do well. It's not like we're talking about an RB.
You also keep hammering on the "no elite season" yet, but then you talk about guys you think are shoo in's to be better than him...that ALSO haven't had an elite season yet.
You're kinda crazy.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
And now we see in round 5 that by the time it gets back to me, all that will be left at the TE position are guys that have almost NO shot at finishing in the top 5. Probably not even in the top 10.
