Personal Draft History (1 Viewer)

[gump]

10-team redraft, basic perf scoring. I have the #7 pick.

So I'm trying to decide what to do with my 2nd and 3rd round picks in the draft after going with Parker, SA, or Addai at #7. I've kept several of my old drafts to use for analysis. League is basically the same as it has been for years.

Looking over the old drafts, I realized something....I have a knack for finding good RBs in later rounds. (Parker in the 3rd in '06, KJ in the 5th in '06, Dunn in the 6th in '05, SDavis in the 11th in '05, etc.) Couple this with the fact that I have had an issue with finding a solid WR corp over the years.

I know this says either something about me and my abilities, something about my leaguemates trends, or both.

So this has me wondering....Should I keep this historic success of mine in mind when drafting?

For example: Do I lean to WR instead of a #2 RB in the 2nd...assuming I'll get a solid #2 and #3 in later rounds?

 

[ImTheScientist]

10-team redraft, basic perf scoring. I have the #7 pick.

So I'm trying to decide what to do with my 2nd and 3rd round picks in the draft after going with Parker, SA, or Addai at #7. I've kept several of my old drafts to use for analysis. League is basically the same as it has been for years.

Looking over the old drafts, I realized something....I have a knack for finding good RBs in later rounds. (Parker in the 3rd in '06, KJ in the 5th in '06, Dunn in the 6th in '05, SDavis in the 11th in '05, etc.) Couple this with the fact that I have had an issue with finding a solid WR corp over the years. I know this says either something about me and my abilities, something about my leaguemates trends, or both.

So this has me wondering....Should I keep this historic success of mine in mind when drafting?

For example: Do I lean to WR instead of a #2 RB in the 2nd...assuming I'll get a solid #2 and #3 in later rounds?

I have had the same problem. I usually can find a good RB but my WR posistion always struggles. Im thinking of going RB/WR

 

[gump]

10-team redraft, basic perf scoring. I have the #7 pick.

So I'm trying to decide what to do with my 2nd and 3rd round picks in the draft after going with Parker, SA, or Addai at #7. I've kept several of my old drafts to use for analysis. League is basically the same as it has been for years.

Looking over the old drafts, I realized something....I have a knack for finding good RBs in later rounds. (Parker in the 3rd in '06, KJ in the 5th in '06, Dunn in the 6th in '05, SDavis in the 11th in '05, etc.) Couple this with the fact that I have had an issue with finding a solid WR corp over the years. I know this says either something about me and my abilities, something about my leaguemates trends, or both.

So this has me wondering....Should I keep this historic success of mine in mind when drafting?

For example: Do I lean to WR instead of a #2 RB in the 2nd...assuming I'll get a solid #2 and #3 in later rounds?

I have had the same problem. I usually can find a good RB but my WR posistion always struggles. Im thinking of going RB/WR

So you agree it's something to keep in mind when drafting...I'm not sure I've seen anyone mention this as a consideration. Other owner trends...I have seen.

 

[-Crippler-]

2 years isnt a big enough sample set . Dont overthink it, just take the best value you can find each pick.

 

[None]

2 years isnt a big enough sample set . Dont overthink it, just take the best value you can find each pick.

Nonsense. Know your strengths and use them. If you have ways of identifying RB's later in the draft, then why not take the risk to get higher value elsewhere earlier? Your strengths don't have to be statistically valid, just incrementally good enough to warrant the extra risk.Similarly, as Clint said, " A man's got to know his limitations." If you are historically poor at certain parts of the draft, do something about it -- practice, develop strategies or rules to follow, don't listen to others, etc.

 

[pantherclub]

I never understand why leagues only have 10 teams. Seems like every team would get loaded and you would rely on luck to win the SB. A 12-14 team league requires a ton of skill and prep work to make it happen.

sorry for the random thought

 

[Billy1x]

10-team redraft, basic perf scoring. I have the #7 pick.

So I'm trying to decide what to do with my 2nd and 3rd round picks in the draft after going with Parker, SA, or Addai at #7. I've kept several of my old drafts to use for analysis. League is basically the same as it has been for years.

Looking over the old drafts, I realized something....I have a knack for finding good RBs in later rounds. (Parker in the 3rd in '06, KJ in the 5th in '06, Dunn in the 6th in '05, SDavis in the 11th in '05, etc.) Couple this with the fact that I have had an issue with finding a solid WR corp over the years. I know this says either something about me and my abilities, something about my leaguemates trends, or both.

So this has me wondering....Should I keep this historic success of mine in mind when drafting?

For example: Do I lean to WR instead of a #2 RB in the 2nd...assuming I'll get a solid #2 and #3 in later rounds?

I have had the same problem. I usually can find a good RB but my WR posistion always struggles. Im thinking of going RB/WR

Go for it. There was a good article about league's with people who don't understand RB value last year (FBG subscription required). Continuing to take them while all the other positions get gobbled up will hurt you with these type of opponents. I took a WR in the 2nd in the last years draft and finished very high. One guy went WR/WR last year and finished with the 2ne most points. The years I took RB/RB/RB or RB/RB/WR/RB limited my max weekly points. It all comes down to using VBD and knowing the ADP for YOUR league.

 

[-Crippler-]

2 years isnt a big enough sample set . Dont overthink it, just take the best value you can find each pick.

Nonsense. Know your strengths and use them. If you have ways of identifying RB's later in the draft, then why not take the risk to get higher value elsewhere earlier? Your strengths don't have to be statistically valid, just incrementally good enough to warrant the extra risk.Similarly, as Clint said, " A man's got to know his limitations." If you are historically poor at certain parts of the draft, do something about it -- practice, develop strategies or rules to follow, don't listen to others, etc.

NonsenseHow do you know your 'strengths'? Because you found one or two good RBs late in a draft in 2 examples?Hardly enough to assume that finding good RBs late is your 'strength' and you should pass up on good value RBs early in the draft I won $5 on a scratch-off lottery ticket once. Maybe I should buy every one I can find...I'll be rich!

 

[gump]

2 years isnt a big enough sample set . Dont overthink it, just take the best value you can find each pick.

Nonsense. Know your strengths and use them. If you have ways of identifying RB's later in the draft, then why not take the risk to get higher value elsewhere earlier? Your strengths don't have to be statistically valid, just incrementally good enough to warrant the extra risk.Similarly, as Clint said, " A man's got to know his limitations." If you are historically poor at certain parts of the draft, do something about it -- practice, develop strategies or rules to follow, don't listen to others, etc.

To clarify also, it hasn't just happened twice...I just have those two drafts in front of me. But I have just about always been loaded at RB with depth...to the degree that it has become a comment among other owners.I just noticed something else. The only time I have missed the playoffs in 9 years, I went RB-RB-RB! It seems to me that:A) I am good at picking mid-round RBs B) I am not good at picking mid to late-round WRsC) My other owners are good at drafting top-round RBs and like to load up early, then hit WR hardI think it is a combo of my skills (or this site's skills ) at recognizing later RB talent, and the fact that we historically get WR runs in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds.Sold! Going RB/WR....

 

[SSOG]

I never understand why leagues only have 10 teams. Seems like every team would get loaded and you would rely on luck to win the SB. A 12-14 team league requires a ton of skill and prep work to make it happen.sorry for the random thought

I never understood why leagues have 12-14 teams. Seems like every team would be too dependent one 1-2 studs and the playoff/superbowl teams would just be the ones that were lucky enough to not suffer a key injury. A 10 team league requires a ton of skill and prep work to make happen.Sorry for the random thought.

How do you know your 'strengths'? Because you found one or two good RBs late in a draft in 2 examples?Hardly enough to assume that finding good RBs late is your 'strength' and you should pass up on good value RBs early in the draft I won $5 on a scratch-off lottery ticket once. Maybe I should buy every one I can find...I'll be rich!

To clarify also, it hasn't just happened twice...I just have those two drafts in front of me. But I have just about always been loaded at RB with depth...to the degree that it has become a comment among other owners.I just noticed something else. The only time I have missed the playoffs in 9 years, I went RB-RB-RB! It seems to me that:A) I am good at picking mid-round RBs B) I am not good at picking mid to late-round WRsC) My other owners are good at drafting top-round RBs and like to load up early, then hit WR hardI think it is a combo of my skills (or this site's skills ) at recognizing later RB talent, and the fact that we historically get WR runs in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds.Sold! Going RB/WR....

It's still highly anecdotal and not really indicative of any secret skill. I mean, if someone really *WAS* super-skilled at finding RBs, and another person was great at finding WRs, then the two people could combine their expertise and they'd never lose a fantasy league. Very few people have such consistently strong year-to-year performance that I would truly believe that they're better than average at finding late RBs.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

in addition to personal tendencies, i think wr's in general are harder to predict, period. i whether it is me or general though, i definitely incorporate it in my strategy by not rushing to draft wr's -- esp given the relative availaility of receivers. in a ten team league, esp, you have a great shot at the wire. i'd have to check, but i'm pretty sure colston wasn't drafted in my ten teamer last year.

pantherclub - on the league size, smaller leagues actually require more skill in waiver wire watching and playing matchups than large leaguies whih, as you say, require more prep/drafting skill. and some of us just have a specific group of ten people to play with. what i've never understood is the attitude some people have about leagues other than what they play in. different strokes

 

[gump]

It's still highly anecdotal and not really indicative of any secret skill. I mean, if someone really *WAS* super-skilled at finding RBs, and another person was great at finding WRs, then the two people could combine their expertise and they'd never lose a fantasy league. Very few people have such consistently strong year-to-year performance that I would truly believe that they're better than average at finding late RBs.

Maybe it's the main source of my rankings....FBG...as compared to other more generic sites like ESPN. Doesn't explain why I can't seem to find later round WR gems though...

 

[The Jerk]

It's still highly anecdotal and not really indicative of any secret skill. I mean, if someone really *WAS* super-skilled at finding RBs, and another person was great at finding WRs, then the two people could combine their expertise and they'd never lose a fantasy league. Very few people have such consistently strong year-to-year performance that I would truly believe that they're better than average at finding late RBs.

Maybe it's the main source of my rankings....FBG...as compared to other more generic sites like ESPN. Doesn't explain why I can't seem to find later round WR gems though...

gump,Is your late-round RB skill displayed in one particular league or in multiple leagues with completely different owners? I'm thinking perhaps your success with late-round RBs could be partly due to your preparation and partly due to the tendencies/strengths/weaknesses of your other league members.In my case, one league has a collective mindset of not drafting backup RBs before most other positions have starters (QB, 3 WR, TE), so in many cases it's the 8th round when a team selects their third RB. If I draft my 3rd RB in the 6th or 7th round, I have an excellent chance of getting a starting RB "late" since only 20-24 have been taken by this point in the draft.

 

[None]

2 years isnt a big enough sample set . Dont overthink it, just take the best value you can find each pick.

Nonsense. Know your strengths and use them. If you have ways of identifying RB's later in the draft, then why not take the risk to get higher value elsewhere earlier? Your strengths don't have to be statistically valid, just incrementally good enough to warrant the extra risk.Similarly, as Clint said, " A man's got to know his limitations." If you are historically poor at certain parts of the draft, do something about it -- practice, develop strategies or rules to follow, don't listen to others, etc.

NonsenseHow do you know your 'strengths'? Because you found one or two good RBs late in a draft in 2 examples?Hardly enough to assume that finding good RBs late is your 'strength' and you should pass up on good value RBs early in the draft I won $5 on a scratch-off lottery ticket once. Maybe I should buy every one I can find...I'll be rich!

A better example would neighborhood poker game against some buddies, where you've won a couple of times with some different players. Do you feel that this is a good enough tendency that you would use the same approach against others in yet another game? Or do you always play safe, according to the "rules" dictated by statistics? If you can improve your team much of the time by taking additional risks, then many times these are reasonable risks. If things pan out, i.e., he can find that good RB later on, then it was a smart move. If he gets hosed because the RB's get picked over or he picks badly, then it was an OK move if the other player he took with the pick pans out OK.If everyone is chasing "value", perhaps a contrarian approach with higher risk, higher reward is warranted.

 

[1huskerfan]

2 years isnt a big enough sample set . Dont overthink it, just take the best value you can find each pick.

Nonsense. Know your strengths and use them. If you have ways of identifying RB's later in the draft, then why not take the risk to get higher value elsewhere earlier? Your strengths don't have to be statistically valid, just incrementally good enough to warrant the extra risk.Similarly, as Clint said, " A man's got to know his limitations." If you are historically poor at certain parts of the draft, do something about it -- practice, develop strategies or rules to follow, don't listen to others, etc.

NonsenseHow do you know your 'strengths'? Because you found one or two good RBs late in a draft in 2 examples?Hardly enough to assume that finding good RBs late is your 'strength' and you should pass up on good value RBs early in the draft I won $5 on a scratch-off lottery ticket once. Maybe I should buy every one I can find...I'll be rich!

A better example would neighborhood poker game against some buddies, where you've won a couple of times with some different players. Do you feel that this is a good enough tendency that you would use the same approach against others in yet another game? Or do you always play safe, according to the "rules" dictated by statistics? If you can improve your team much of the time by taking additional risks, then many times these are reasonable risks. If things pan out, i.e., he can find that good RB later on, then it was a smart move. If he gets hosed because the RB's get picked over or he picks badly, then it was an OK move if the other player he took with the pick pans out OK.If everyone is chasing "value", perhaps a contrarian approach with higher risk, higher reward is warranted.

Horrible analogy

 

[switz]

10-team redraft, basic perf scoring. I have the #7 pick.

So I'm trying to decide what to do with my 2nd and 3rd round picks in the draft after going with Parker, SA, or Addai at #7. I've kept several of my old drafts to use for analysis. League is basically the same as it has been for years.

Looking over the old drafts, I realized something....I have a knack for finding good RBs in later rounds. (Parker in the 3rd in '06, KJ in the 5th in '06, Dunn in the 6th in '05, SDavis in the 11th in '05, etc.) Couple this with the fact that I have had an issue with finding a solid WR corp over the years. I know this says either something about me and my abilities, something about my leaguemates trends, or both.

So this has me wondering....Should I keep this historic success of mine in mind when drafting?

For example: Do I lean to WR instead of a #2 RB in the 2nd...assuming I'll get a solid #2 and #3 in later rounds?

I have had the same problem. I usually can find a good RB but my WR posistion always struggles. Im thinking of going RB/WR

Me too - even when I draft "good" Wrs

 

[gump]

It's still highly anecdotal and not really indicative of any secret skill. I mean, if someone really *WAS* super-skilled at finding RBs, and another person was great at finding WRs, then the two people could combine their expertise and they'd never lose a fantasy league. Very few people have such consistently strong year-to-year performance that I would truly believe that they're better than average at finding late RBs.

Maybe it's the main source of my rankings....FBG...as compared to other more generic sites like ESPN. Doesn't explain why I can't seem to find later round WR gems though...

gump,Is your late-round RB skill displayed in one particular league or in multiple leagues with completely different owners? I'm thinking perhaps your success with late-round RBs could be partly due to your preparation and partly due to the tendencies/strengths/weaknesses of your other league members.In my case, one league has a collective mindset of not drafting backup RBs before most other positions have starters (QB, 3 WR, TE), so in many cases it's the 8th round when a team selects their third RB. If I draft my 3rd RB in the 6th or 7th round, I have an excellent chance of getting a starting RB "late" since only 20-24 have been taken by this point in the draft.

That's definitely part of it. In the 3rd and 4th rounds the last 4 years, my league has drafted 10, 13, 10, 12 WRs out of 20 picks...there's the run.But also think about some of the rankings from magazines that are posted in Clayton's article:Jones-Drew - 38th overall (pf), 23rd (ff)Bush - 36th overall (pf)Henry - 34th overall (pf), 27th (sn)Portis - 36th (in)This leads me to believe I can steal one of these guys in the 3rd round.Peterson - not in top 50 (5 of 7 mags)Norwood - not in top 50 (5 of 7 mags)Deangelo - not in top 50 (4 of 7 mags)This leads me to believe I can get one of these guys in the 6th or maybe 7th.How about starting off with Parker, Chad Johnson, Portis?

 

[crimsonrebel]

if you have a lot of guppies then by all means stick to what the mags suggest and wait on those rbs. If your league has a lot of sharks, theylll know your mid round RB gems, and youll have competition for them. In a ten round league, id opersonally draft a wr by round three.