It's the high deductible thing that scares me away from the HSA.
Don't forget to factor in the differences in the premium costs and the tax savings.
For us, the Premium difference alone is another 1500$ per year.
Assuming you do the max 8,300$ for next year--
At 22% Federal tax, you'd save another 1800$
At 24, it's 1992$
At 32% it's 2,656.
It's a bit of a gamble either way just because we can't predict the future. My out of pocket maximums are pretty close on the top plan and the HDP. We don't seek much health care other than our IVF stuff--and most of that isn't covered anyways.
With 2 kids under 10, you never know what catastrophe might come and bite you.
The max OOP is $6K for us with the HDHP. Your health insurance is there exactly to cover for a catastrophe and the HDHP doesn't eliminate that.
The difference is that, when you have an ER visit or most anything else, you pay a lot more for it AT FIRST until you hit that deductible. Ours is $3K. After that, prices come down as if we had the other plan until we hit a total of $6K and then we pay nothing for the rest of the year.
The difference in premiums is MASSIVE for us (thousands) plus the ability to save in the HSA.
Basically, the only family that it wouldn't work out for is the family that would otherwise spend maybe $500 or less because of the discounts they got from the lower deductible plan and, without, would spend $3-4K. Then it's almost a wash and still not a loss. Pretty much any other scenario, the HDHP wins.