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Peterson at 1.01 in redrafts next year (2 Viewers)

Raider Nation

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
1.01 seems pretty clear now for '09, unlike the hundreds of "LT vs. ADP" threads we suffered through this summer.

My question is, if you are one of the folks in the minority who will NOT take Peterson # 1, who would you take instead?

(I know it's early. Just assume everyone stays healthy... knock on wood.)

 
Maybe Portis. Seems like he's due for a year where he simply goes nuts. 2nd year in this new offense could easily do that.

 
I think Turner, Forte, Portis are the other possible RBs that I could see a possible case for. Maybe Anquan Boldin if you really didn't want an RB.

 
Notinuse said:
I think Turner, Forte, Portis are the other possible RBs that I could see a possible case for. Maybe Anquan Boldin if you really didn't want an RB.
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If you really want Anquan Boldin, you can trade down 5 spots and still be guaranteed you'd get him. At 1.01 you are throwing your pick away.
 
1.01 - Adrian Peterson

1.02 - Clinton Portis

1.03 - Michael Turner

1.04 - Steven Jackson

1.05 - Thomas Jones/Forte/Jacobs

IMO, atleast. :thumbup:

 
Eminence said:
1.01 - Adrian Peterson1.02 - Clinton Portis1.03 - Michael Turner1.04 - Steven Jackson1.05 - Thomas Jones/Forte/JacobsIMO, atleast. :thumbup:
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1.01 ADP-Fine but has he done anything this year to get it hands down? 2007 season still pushing?1.02 Portis-too high, he has had a very nice year but he is not #1 by very much is he?1.03 Turner-Bust1.04 SJax-Bust1.05 TJones/Forte/Jacobs...Bust-Bust-Bust
 
i see it as:

Peterson

Portis

Gore

Tomlinson

Barber

Lynch

Turner

with SJax/Westbrook looking at moving up depending on how they finish the year

if there is PPR, Bush makes his way in there

i think you'll see Forte, Jacobs, MJD, Addai towards the end of round 1/beginning round 2 depending on scoring and how high WRs/QBs go

 
Turner doesn't catch enough passes to be relied on as a consistent stud in PPR. When he doesn't get in the end zone, he's going to give you 6-8 point weeks that really hurt you. I guess he might be a top 3 candidate in non-PPR league, but I think his monster game is clouding your view a little bit if you really rank him with the likes of ADP.

There aren't a lot of bankable stars at RB in the league right now. A lot of the elite guys are getting older (Portis, LT, Westbrook) and few of the young guys look worthy of a top 4-5 gamble. Peterson is definitely a slam dunk RB1 in redraft and dynasty. RB2 is going to be an adventure next season though. I might just grab someone like Gore or Lynch. They won't be difference makers, but you know what you're getting.

 
Garts said:
Thomas Jones...? :X
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The numbers don't lie. :D ...and is it just a coincidence he's getting better as Favre gets more comfortable with the system? :popcorn:
Ministry of Pain said:
Eminence said:
1.01 - Adrian Peterson1.02 - Clinton Portis1.03 - Michael Turner1.04 - Steven Jackson1.05 - Thomas Jones/Forte/JacobsIMO, atleast. :)
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1.01 ADP-Fine but has he done anything this year to get it hands down? 2007 season still pushing?1.02 Portis-too high, he has had a very nice year but he is not #1 by very much is he?1.03 Turner-Bust1.04 SJax-Bust1.05 TJones/Forte/Jacobs...Bust-Bust-Bust
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1.01 ADP - Most consistent of the top RB picks this year. (ADP, Westbrook, LT, Jackson, and Addai)1.02 Portis - He is leading the league in rushing, is within the Top-5 in most scoring. Not much of a #1?1.03 Turner- Emerging Falcons Offense, Ryan's only going to get better. :)1.04- SJax- I wouldn't draft him here, but I predict most people would.1.05- Wait... you've now called 5 backs busts. You're clearly messing with me?Seriously, tell me your Top 5. Because if all these guys are "busts", and are leading scoring in many leagues.
 
PPR through week 12:

1 Forte, Matt CHI RB ® 223.5

2 Barber, Marion DAL RB 214.3

3 Portis, Clinton WAS RB 201.8

4 Jones, Thomas NYJ RB 200.0

5 Gore, Frank SFO RB 199.1

6 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 195.6

7 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 192.3

8 Turner, Michael ATL RB 192.0

9 Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 190.3

10 Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 184.9

 
As a dynasty Stephen Jackson owner I couldn't bring myself to touch him in the first round of a redraft. If I was in the middle of the first I'd want Forte.

 
I wouldn't want the #1 pick in a redraft next year....not enough clear cut value up there to take the pick and not pick for another 30 spots (16-teamer).

However, if I did get it and I couldn't trade down, I'd have to say I would think of Forte, Bush, or maybe Barber.

I'm basing these decisions on the fact that I play in PPRs. :hophead:

Westbrook, SJax have the talent, ability, and opportunity, but I don't like that much injury risk for a #1 pick.

 
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In a PPR I'd probably take Barber. He should be solid even with Felix back in the mix. I'd also be tempted to nab a top WR, so I'd probably try to trade down.

 
Forte has been leading my PPR league since week 1. Nobody is catching him.

Forte

Gore

Westbrook

ADP

Tomlinson

Lock it up.

 
As of now, my comfort level with guys would be somewhere around here:

Tier 1 (Pretty much guaranteed RB1 production):

ADP

MB3

Portis

Tier 2 (Safe bets for RB1 production, but with some question marks):

LT

Forte

Turner

Gore

Tier 3 (Swinging for the fences, potential stud RB1s or busts):

Bush

Westbrook

Brown

SJax

Tier 4 (Solid and safe RB1s):

MJD

Lynch

Jacobs

TJ

I could easily swap tiers 3 and 4 depending on how much I want to gamble with that pick.

 
Portis, AP, Turner, Bush, and MJD are likely in my top 5 next year. For those pimping MBIII, please see what Felix Jones did this year. :sadbanana:

 
So, suddenly MB3 becomes the next...ummm...Julius Jones? And Felix becomes the next....ummm....MB3?

:shark:

I don't think so. I would take Barber top 3 easy and would consider him at #1.

I think by the time drafts roll around next year you'll be hearing a lot of love for Chris Johnson again. I also think Lynch will be getting a lot of love.

Turner and Portis are the other 2 that I think will be going #1 in some drafts.

 
Eminence said:
1.01 - Adrian Peterson1.02 - Clinton Portis1.03 - Michael Turner1.04 - Steven Jackson1.05 - Thomas Jones/Forte/JacobsIMO, atleast. :rolleyes:
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LOL @ SJAX or Jones. JAX can't stay healthy and his team is a joke and this is Jones' swang song, age catches up. Portis is old too but still plays at top level, Jones doesn't and will be drafted too high next year as will JAX and people chasing days gone by for LT. Turner and Forte and Portis and Barber - AP has done well but I would draft those over him I think. This is no lock
 
Other than Peterson, Barber would probably be the only other possible #1 pick for me. Thomas Jones and Westy are old, Portis has too many miles on him and Turner has been more hit-or-miss than Peterson. Forte is an intersting one, though. Were next year not only his second year, he'd get consideration from me for #1. But #1 needs to as sure a thing as possible, so I'd want to see another year of similar production out of Forte.

 
I think MBIII has shown he's a solid RB1 and I definitely would have him in my top 5. I wonder if Reid is gone in Philly, how much that would affect Westy's value next year?

 
Many people see Willis gone in Baltimore next year, but I doubt you could consider Rice in a top 3 discussion. Could make it to #6 or so.

 
i can only hope sjax projects to be even late first round next year. i will never touch him, so hopefully others do.

lets see, other than the end of 2 seasons ago, and a few short stretches, he has produced horribly. hes still on a terrible team. and at this point there has to be injury concerns.

i think early 2nd round is still too high. very late 2nd could be worth it but i wouldnt feel comfortable until mid third. i would much prefer a top tier qb or wr in the 2nd.

 
cvnpoka said:
i can only hope sjax projects to be even late first round next year. i will never touch him, so hopefully others do.lets see, other than the end of 2 seasons ago, and a few short stretches, he has produced horribly. hes still on a terrible team. and at this point there has to be injury concerns. i think early 2nd round is still too high. very late 2nd could be worth it but i wouldnt feel comfortable until mid third. i would much prefer a top tier qb or wr in the 2nd.
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I can see taking Jackson w/ a late 1st... he was doing ok before he was injuried.Next yr will be a good draft yr, there is no real 1.01 unless someone goes completely nutz in these next 2 months
 
The only knock on AP is the coach. Imagine what kind of numbers he could produce if he had a coach that CONSISTANTLY gave him 25-30 touches a game.

 
lebrija said:
The only knock on AP is the coach. Imagine what kind of numbers he could produce if he had a coach that CONSISTANTLY gave him 25-30 touches a game.
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AP isn't good enough to play on 3rd down, passing or in half of red zone situations. I mean, he did set the single game rushing record but that means nothing. He's not really capable of breaking big runs or making plays happen. He didn't run the ball 29 yards to the end zone against Green Bay to win it for the Vikings a couple weeks ago. That never happened.
 
lebrija said:
The only knock on AP is the coach. Imagine what kind of numbers he could produce if he had a coach that CONSISTANTLY gave him 25-30 touches a game.
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You mean, until he got hurt 6 games in b/c he's never been able to carry the load by himself?
 
hostile said:
lebrija said:
The only knock on AP is the coach. Imagine what kind of numbers he could produce if he had a coach that CONSISTANTLY gave him 25-30 touches a game.
Click to expand...
You mean, until he got hurt 6 games in b/c he's never been able to carry the load by himself?
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Really? He got hurt because he can't handle the workload? Does that mean Manning can't handle the workload? Does that mean every single player who gets injured can't handle the workload? Or is it because the odds of an NFL player being hurt at least once in their career is around 100%?
 
#1 Peterson, If I don't get the #1, I wouldn't mind picking end of round. Not a lot of separation, and a lot of iffy picks because of injury. Westbrook? LT? Sjax? I really don't want any of them.

My top 5 : PPR

1) Peterson

2) Forte

3)Barber

4) Portis

5) Gore

 
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EdwardCat said:
hostile said:
lebrija said:
The only knock on AP is the coach. Imagine what kind of numbers he could produce if he had a coach that CONSISTANTLY gave him 25-30 touches a game.
Click to expand...
You mean, until he got hurt 6 games in b/c he's never been able to carry the load by himself?
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Really? He got hurt because he can't handle the workload? Does that mean Manning can't handle the workload? Does that mean every single player who gets injured can't handle the workload? Or is it because the odds of an NFL player being hurt at least once in their career is around 100%?
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The last year ADP played a full season was 2004. He has always had help in the backfield. His history shows that he is not a 30 touch/game back. It would wreck him.
 
ditka85 said:
I wonder if Reid is gone in Philly, how much that would affect Westy's value next year?
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Are you suggesting it would be a plus or a minus?I think Westbrook is in the perfect type of offense for his skill set right now. He doesn't belong in a run-first, pound-it-up-the-gut offense.
 
ScottyFargo said:
jurb26 said:
OK, seriously what has Peterson done this year to warrant being labeled the easy choice for #1?
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Been awesome on top of being four years younger than the guy he's running neck and neck with for most yards in the league?
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Which might matter if the guys he was running neck and neck with weren't still in their prime age. Portis is only 27, Barber is 25, Jacobs is 26, Turner is 26 and Forte is 22. As I look down the list of top performing RBs this year the only one who is even close to an age that might cause concern is Thomas Jones.
 
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