Peyton Manning (1 Viewer)

[ScottNorwood]

Even if we give Manning his guarantee of a value score of 40 AND we still say that 8 of the Top 24 RB will not pan out . . . guess what? In taking Manning you still have no RB yet. So now you have a lot fewer RB to choose from and will be trolling for RB later on. And if the guy you annoint busts, you are WAY behind the 8-ball.

Problem is that "the guy you annoint" in the 1st and 2nd round could bust almost as easily as the guy in the 3rd, 4th and 5th round.

 

[bagger.]

If you take Manning at 1 - you're STILL praying on healthy RB's - Yet less of em and/or less quality.

VBD and DEPTH are key here.

This is an excellent point, and one that I do not believe I have stated explicitly. Just because you draft Manning in the first round does not get you off the hook of drafting good and healthy RBs.Furthermore with 2 RBs that is two weeks you have to fill in on byes compared to one at QB. If you have a flex it is even more important.

The fact that you start more RBs and WRs you are pressed to get better depth than at any other position due to more bye weeks and the greater possibility of filling in for starters' injuries (since there are more starters).

 

[Reaper]

to add something in here.

I think you could search and I'd said a while back that(generally) only an experienced drafter could make drafting Manning work well. I see Yudkin, Bagger, Peep, and some other experienced folks here stating that they're against it. That's their prerogative but you guys COULD have made it work. I think that's what is being missed by most here is that you could have made it work.

Well, Yeah.People could make it work..... Heck, People COULD field a competitive team and may luck out by not even having a #1 pick at all!!!!!

Why the hell would someone want to do that though?

 

[bagger.]

I will take a stud RB in the first and one of these QBs versus Peyton and a RB available in the 8th.

that's cool I'm only saying that it's not the only method one can use

In your draft, you should never be the first to draft a PK, DT, TE, or QB.

Let the positional runs come to you, not the other way around.

I completely disagree. Not just because again you made it so cut N dry "you should never" but because I regularly draft the first TE and have done so for years and years and have an excellent FF record. In fact if I don't I'll often take the 2nd and 3rd best TE back to back.I am never shy about taking the best K or D either.

If I'm extremely comfy with my RBs, TE, WRs, QB there's nothing wrong with getting the best K and D. I really can't imagine in re-reading what you posted that you think there's something wrong with takng the best D or K.

Your fantasy football record has no bearing on this discussion, and is certainly not any basis of reasoning that taking a TE first is a good methodology in drafting.

 

[bagger.]

This is valid. Everyone wants to know how the Manning owner is doing. How's the Priest owner doing? How's the Deuce owner doing? How's the Dom D owner doing? How's the Jamal Lewis, Dillon, K Jones, J Jones, A Green owner doing? Almost half of the top ranked RBs have gotten hurt or been ineffective. That's what makes Peyton a legit 1st rounder.

Admittedly I expected him to be closer to last years #s than he has been (since he basically had the same supporting cast coming back this year), but with Culpepper losing Moss, Peyton looked like he was going to be the top QB by a large margin.

My 1st 3 picks were Manning, Chad Johnson, and Steven Jackson

Would I rather have Shaun Alexander and then taken Carson Palmer much later? Of course. Would I rather have Jamal Lewis and Aaron Brooks? No way. You can't win your league in the 1st round, but you can lose it.

And like I said before, if some of these RBs were in your top 12, you did a poor job projecting.In all the leagues I am in, the people that drafted Manning early did lose their league in the first round as none of them are currently in the playoff hunt.

 

[bagger.]

to add something in here.

I think you could search and I'd said a while back that(generally) only an experienced drafter could make drafting Manning work well. I see Yudkin, Bagger, Peep, and some other experienced folks here stating that they're against it. That's their prerogative but you guys COULD have made it work. I think that's what is being missed by most here is that you could have made it work.

Well, Yeah.People could make it work..... Heck, People COULD field a competitive team and may luck out by not even having a #1 pick at all!!!!!

Why the hell would someone want to do that though?

Exactly. You could tell me I have to pick a kicker in the first round, and then draft from there.I might still be able to salvage my season but it's no basis for a solid draft strategy going into the draft.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Some great points in here, I have enjoyed reading them.Muahahaha,You're argument makes sense, but ultimately I don't like it........here's why. You admit that going into your draft you are overpaying for Manning, that's not the way you win championships consistantly, period.You may have an average team, you may not finish worse than those that take a chance at 2 solid RB's because they go on IR.........but 1 or several teams will draft those 2 solid Qb's and find a QB to help the team along with the receivers and they will be the teams that win it all.Starting your draft by admittingly overpaying for a player is not the way to go IMO.

 

[Bri]

I will take a stud RB in the first and one of these QBs versus Peyton and a RB available in the 8th.

that's cool I'm only saying that it's not the only method one can use

In your draft, you should never be the first to draft a PK, DT, TE, or QB.

Let the positional runs come to you, not the other way around.

I completely disagree. Not just because again you made it so cut N dry "you should never" but because I regularly draft the first TE and have done so for years and years and have an excellent FF record. In fact if I don't I'll often take the 2nd and 3rd best TE back to back.I am never shy about taking the best K or D either.

If I'm extremely comfy with my RBs, TE, WRs, QB there's nothing wrong with getting the best K and D. I really can't imagine in re-reading what you posted that you think there's something wrong with takng the best D or K.

Your fantasy football record has no bearing on this discussion, and is certainly not any basis of reasoning that taking a TE first is a good methodology in drafting.

if you get good results in drafts where you take the first TE, then in a discussion about drafting a TE first it's only natural to discuss those results when someone says it won't work. I wasn't trying to thump my chest(so to speak)

 

[David Yudkin]

to add something in here.

I think you could search and I'd said a while back that(generally) only an experienced drafter could make drafting Manning work well. I see Yudkin, Bagger, Peep, and some other experienced folks here stating that they're against it. That's their prerogative but you guys COULD have made it work. I think that's what is being missed by most here is that you could have made it work.

Certainly, any strategy COULD work, but there is an element of luck and science involved here. Could AA lose to 72o? Off course, but I would rather have the pocket aces than the 7-2 offsuited.Using math as our co-manager, the math will show that the probability of taking Manning in the first round will decrease the odds of scoring the most points in the long run. There is no air tight formula to "prove" this, but looking at history, probability, and all the other drating acronyms cited here made Manning a questionable play as an extremely early pick.

Could you have taken Manning and been 10-0 now? Of course. But I would suggest that your other 17 picks were a lot more "hits" than "misses." And if that the team with Manning also ran into injuries, that team would have a lot bigger whole to climb out of. If any first round pick goes down it's tough to recover. True dat. But with Manning doing much closer to "normal" than 2004, you'd be behind the 8-ball.

Manning is currently averaging 19 ppg. Excluding last year, he has been in the 20-22 ppg range. Yet at tose scoring levels he used to be a 3rd or 4th round pick. Basically, people are trying to justify taking Manning a full 2-3 rounds EARLIER when he is having the worst fantasy season since his rookie year.

It boils down to this . . . heading into the season were the chances greater that"

- the RB you would have taken at that draft spot staying healthy and avoiding a season ending injury

or

- was Manning going to pass for almost 50 TD again

Whichever you felt was more likely was the way you drafted.

 

[bagger.]

Even if we give Manning his guarantee of a value score of 40 AND we still say that 8 of the Top 24 RB will not pan out . . . guess what?  In taking Manning you still have no RB yet.  So now you have a lot fewer RB to choose from and will be trolling for RB later on.  And if the guy you annoint busts, you are WAY behind the 8-ball.

Problem is that "the guy you annoint" in the 1st and 2nd round could bust almost as easily as the guy in the 3rd, 4th and 5th round.

That's exactly the point why you shouldn't draft Manning.By drafting Manning in the first you still haven't mitigated projection or injury risk at your RB position. The only thing you know that you have done for sure is left points on the table.

If by drafting Manning in the first you somehow magically would be able to draft two RBs who, albeit of lesser quality, would perform FOR SURE at their projected draft slot it would be a solid drafting method. While you overpay for something in the first round, you magically have eliminated projection and injury risk in the next two rounds. That would be a great trade.

Unfortunately you do not get this with Manning. The risk in subsequent rounds is still there.

 

[Reaper]

FBG pre-season ADP from the Forecast Section:

1. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/10

2. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/8

3. RB Priest Holmes, KC/5

4. RB Edgerrin James, Ind/8

5. QB Peyton Manning, Ind/8

6. RB Willis McGahee, Buf/9 OK

7. RB Deuce McAllister, NO/10  INJ

8. RB Domanick Davis, Hou/3  INJ

9. RB Clinton Portis, Was/3  OK

10. RB Jamal Lewis, Bal/3  BUST

11. RB Corey Dillon, NE/7  INJ

12. RB Kevin Jones, Det/3  BUST

This is valid. Everyone wants to know how the Manning owner is doing. How's the Priest owner doing? How's the Deuce owner doing? How's the Dom D owner doing? How's the Jamal Lewis, Dillon, K Jones, J Jones, A Green owner doing? Almost half of the top ranked RBs have gotten hurt or been ineffective. That's what makes Peyton a legit 1st rounder. Admittedly I expected him to be closer to last years #s than he has been (since he basically had the same supporting cast coming back this year), but with Culpepper losing Moss, Peyton looked like he was going to be the top QB by a large margin.

My 1st 3 picks were Manning, Chad Johnson, and Steven Jackson

Would I rather have Shaun Alexander and then taken Carson Palmer much later? Of course. Would I rather have Jamal Lewis and Aaron Brooks? No way. You can't win your league in the 1st round, but you can lose it.

Now we're talking simple terms...In a few of my leagues the difference between

Shaun Alexander - Stephen Jackson =

55

80

75

50

THERE"S A BOATLOAD OF QB's - EVERY FANTASY STARTER PLUS MORE THAT COME WITHIN THAT RANGE OF MANNING...

THAT is the point.

You didn't even need to hit on Carson Palmer - After locking up the concensus #1 or #2 back you could have thrown a dart at the board of QB's in the 6th round and been MUCH better off.

 

[ScottNorwood]

This is valid. Everyone wants to know how the Manning owner is doing. How's the Priest owner doing? How's the Deuce owner doing? How's the Dom D owner doing? How's the Jamal Lewis, Dillon, K Jones, J Jones, A Green owner doing? Almost half of the top ranked RBs have gotten hurt or been ineffective. That's what makes Peyton a legit 1st rounder.

Admittedly I expected him to be closer to last years #s than he has been (since he basically had the same supporting cast coming back this year), but with Culpepper losing Moss, Peyton looked like he was going to be the top QB by a large margin.

My 1st 3 picks were Manning, Chad Johnson, and Steven Jackson

Would I rather have Shaun Alexander and then taken Carson Palmer much later? Of course. Would I rather have Jamal Lewis and Aaron Brooks? No way. You can't win your league in the 1st round, but you can lose it.

And like I said before, if some of these RBs were in your top 12, you did a poor job projecting.In all the leagues I am in, the people that drafted Manning early did lose their league in the first round as none of them are currently in the playoff hunt.

All of the RBs I mentioned were taken in the 1st 2 rounds of every draft I had seen. And I don't make projections. It's a useless exercise.

 

[ScottNorwood]

FBG pre-season ADP from the Forecast Section:

1. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/10

2. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/8

3. RB Priest Holmes, KC/5

4. RB Edgerrin James, Ind/8

5. QB Peyton Manning, Ind/8

6. RB Willis McGahee, Buf/9 OK

7. RB Deuce McAllister, NO/10 INJ

8. RB Domanick Davis, Hou/3 INJ

9. RB Clinton Portis, Was/3 OK

10. RB Jamal Lewis, Bal/3 BUST

11. RB Corey Dillon, NE/7 INJ

12. RB Kevin Jones, Det/3 BUST

This is valid. Everyone wants to know how the Manning owner is doing. How's the Priest owner doing? How's the Deuce owner doing? How's the Dom D owner doing? How's the Jamal Lewis, Dillon, K Jones, J Jones, A Green owner doing? Almost half of the top ranked RBs have gotten hurt or been ineffective. That's what makes Peyton a legit 1st rounder. Admittedly I expected him to be closer to last years #s than he has been (since he basically had the same supporting cast coming back this year), but with Culpepper losing Moss, Peyton looked like he was going to be the top QB by a large margin.

My 1st 3 picks were Manning, Chad Johnson, and Steven Jackson

Would I rather have Shaun Alexander and then taken Carson Palmer much later? Of course. Would I rather have Jamal Lewis and Aaron Brooks? No way. You can't win your league in the 1st round, but you can lose it.

Now we're talking simple terms...In a few of my leagues the difference between

Shaun Alexander - Stephen Jackson =

55

80

75

50

THERE"S A BOATLOAD OF QB's - EVERY FANTASY STARTER PLUS MORE THAN COME WITHIN THAT RANGE OF MANNING...

THAT is the point.

You didn't even need to hit on Carson Plamer - After locking up the concensus #1 or #2 back you could have thrown a dart at the board of QB's in the 6th round and been MUCH better off.

Considering my RB2 is Larry Johnson I'll be just fine, thanks.

 

[Keys Myaths]

FBG pre-season ADP from the Forecast Section:

1. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/10

2. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/8

3. RB Priest Holmes, KC/5

4. RB Edgerrin James, Ind/8

5. QB Peyton Manning, Ind/8

6. RB Willis McGahee, Buf/9 OK

7. RB Deuce McAllister, NO/10 INJ

8. RB Domanick Davis, Hou/3 INJ

9. RB Clinton Portis, Was/3 OK

10. RB Jamal Lewis, Bal/3 BUST

11. RB Corey Dillon, NE/7 INJ

12. RB Kevin Jones, Det/3 BUST

This is valid. Everyone wants to know how the Manning owner is doing. How's the Priest owner doing? How's the Deuce owner doing? How's the Dom D owner doing? How's the Jamal Lewis, Dillon, K Jones, J Jones, A Green owner doing? Almost half of the top ranked RBs have gotten hurt or been ineffective. That's what makes Peyton a legit 1st rounder. Admittedly I expected him to be closer to last years #s than he has been (since he basically had the same supporting cast coming back this year), but with Culpepper losing Moss, Peyton looked like he was going to be the top QB by a large margin.

My 1st 3 picks were Manning, Chad Johnson, and Steven Jackson

Would I rather have Shaun Alexander and then taken Carson Palmer much later? Of course. Would I rather have Jamal Lewis and Aaron Brooks? No way. You can't win your league in the 1st round, but you can lose it.

Now we're talking simple terms...In a few of my leagues the difference between

Shaun Alexander - Stephen Jackson =

55

80

75

50

THERE"S A BOATLOAD OF QB's - EVERY FANTASY STARTER PLUS MORE THAN COME WITHIN THAT RANGE OF MANNING...

THAT is the point.

You didn't even need to hit on Carson Plamer - After locking up the concensus #1 or #2 back you could have thrown a dart at the board of QB's in the 6th round and been MUCH better off.

Considering my RB2 is Larry Johnson I'll be just fine, thanks.

So basically, your other picks made up for the mistake of taking Manning so early.Okay.

 

[ScottNorwood]

FBG pre-season ADP from the Forecast Section:

1. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/10

2. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/8

3. RB Priest Holmes, KC/5

4. RB Edgerrin James, Ind/8

5. QB Peyton Manning, Ind/8

6. RB Willis McGahee, Buf/9 OK

7. RB Deuce McAllister, NO/10 INJ

8. RB Domanick Davis, Hou/3 INJ

9. RB Clinton Portis, Was/3 OK

10. RB Jamal Lewis, Bal/3 BUST

11. RB Corey Dillon, NE/7 INJ

12. RB Kevin Jones, Det/3 BUST

This is valid. Everyone wants to know how the Manning owner is doing. How's the Priest owner doing? How's the Deuce owner doing? How's the Dom D owner doing? How's the Jamal Lewis, Dillon, K Jones, J Jones, A Green owner doing? Almost half of the top ranked RBs have gotten hurt or been ineffective. That's what makes Peyton a legit 1st rounder. Admittedly I expected him to be closer to last years #s than he has been (since he basically had the same supporting cast coming back this year), but with Culpepper losing Moss, Peyton looked like he was going to be the top QB by a large margin.

My 1st 3 picks were Manning, Chad Johnson, and Steven Jackson

Would I rather have Shaun Alexander and then taken Carson Palmer much later? Of course. Would I rather have Jamal Lewis and Aaron Brooks? No way. You can't win your league in the 1st round, but you can lose it.

Now we're talking simple terms...In a few of my leagues the difference between

Shaun Alexander - Stephen Jackson =

55

80

75

50

THERE"S A BOATLOAD OF QB's - EVERY FANTASY STARTER PLUS MORE THAN COME WITHIN THAT RANGE OF MANNING...

THAT is the point.

You didn't even need to hit on Carson Plamer - After locking up the concensus #1 or #2 back you could have thrown a dart at the board of QB's in the 6th round and been MUCH better off.

Considering my RB2 is Larry Johnson I'll be just fine, thanks.

So basically, your other picks made up for the mistake of taking Manning so early.Okay.

The point is that he isn't nearly as much of a bust as a lot of other players. It's just that several of you guys seem to turn up your nose at anyone who takes a QB early. I saw some people taking Jamal Lewis in the 1st round. Sure he's a RB, but he was in prison the entire off-season. How did these people expect him to be in game shape?

 

[Ralph Furley]

My feeling, when I drafted Manning (3 overall), was that at a minimum I was going to get consistency. Outside of LT,SA & Edge, I don't see it coming from any first round picks.

So at 3rd overall why did you pass on one of the RBs you mentioned above?

Please explain how this is a good post? LT & SA went 1/2, I didn't feel comfortable with Priest at three(while I would contend that more Priest owners are hurting then Manning owners). As far as Edge, at the time I didn't have my crystal ball and felt (like many) that he wasn't worth a 3rd round pick, so I went with Manning. Also remember I get 6 points for TD THROWS.Like I said before, I drafted well and have no problem with Manning. I don't understand the people fighting this issue. Draft well, play well. Draft poorly play poorly. VBD helps, but by no means will win you your league. That is why consistantly you see the same people at the top of most leagues. They tend to know what is a good risk and what is a bad risk. Many people thought Priest was the consensus #3 pick, I thought it was too risky for a first round pick, plus I didn't want to sacrifice my 4th for LJ.

Instead I went with Manning and that decision in my mind is paying off.

 

[David Yudkin]

Well, Yeah.People could make it work..... Heck, People COULD field a competitive team and may luck out by not even having a #1 pick at all!!!!!Why the hell would someone want to do that though?Exactly. You could tell me I have to pick a kicker in the first round, and then draft from there.I might still be able to salvage my season but it's no basis for a solid draft strategy going into the draft.

In one of my keeper leagues last year, to keep the league afloat and try to keep all the owners happy I basically gave away Manning, Barber, Portis, and Owens for a hot dog and a bag of chips (I effectively gave up my team for the worst team in the league 'cause the owner bailed and no one would touch that team). So with several rounds of premium players already off the board, we drafted the rest of the player pool and I still somehow manged to put together a team that went on to win the league title. (And this was a league with FBG staff and prominent posters so no guppies at all.)It is possible to field a competitive team using any strategy, getting lucky, staying healthy, and hitting the waiver wire. Would I suggest starting a team when the Top 50 guys are already off the board? Not a chance. But it is still possible to win no matter what the circumstances.

 

[Reaper]

The point is that he isn't nearly as much of a bust as a lot of other players. It's just that several of you guys seem to turn up your nose at anyone who takes a QB early. I saw some people taking Jamal Lewis in the 1st round. Sure he's a RB, but he was in prison the entire off-season. How did these people expect him to be in game shape?

Back up Scotty...There's a huge difference between Bust and "Maximizing potential"

And read the title of this thread - People aren't "Laughing" at those who took Manning - He's laughing at US We acknowlede the safe pick and the fact that Manning rocks.

I doubt anyone took Jamal over Peyton.

 

[ScottNorwood]

The point is that he isn't nearly as much of a bust as a lot of other players. It's just that several of you guys seem to turn up your nose at anyone who takes a QB early. I saw some people taking Jamal Lewis in the 1st round. Sure he's a RB, but he was in prison the entire off-season. How did these people expect him to be in game shape?

Back up Scotty...There's a huge difference between Bust and "Maximizing potential"

And read the title of this thread - People aren't "Laughing" at those who took Manning - He's laughing at US We acknowlede the safe pick and the fact that Manning rocks.

I doubt anyone took Jamal over Peyton.

Ok, I think we're pretty much in agreement then. I just have always been burned by 1st round RBs so I tried something different and it worked out.

 

[Reaper]

The point is that he isn't nearly as much of a bust as a lot of other players.  It's just that several of you guys seem to turn up your nose at anyone who takes a QB early.  I saw some people taking Jamal Lewis in the 1st round.  Sure he's a RB, but he was in prison the entire off-season.  How did these people expect him to be in game shape? 

Back up Scotty...There's a huge difference between Bust and "Maximizing potential"

And read the title of this thread - People aren't "Laughing" at those who took Manning - He's laughing at US We acknowlede the safe pick and the fact that Manning rocks.

I doubt anyone took Jamal over Peyton.

Ok, I think we're pretty much in agreement then. I just have always been burned by 1st round RBs so I tried something different and it worked out.

FINE. Just don't laugh at us.

 

[bagger.]

I will take a stud RB in the first and one of these QBs versus Peyton and a RB available in the 8th.

that's cool I'm only saying that it's not the only method one can use

In your draft, you should never be the first to draft a PK, DT, TE, or QB.

Let the positional runs come to you, not the other way around.

I completely disagree. Not just because again you made it so cut N dry "you should never" but because I regularly draft the first TE and have done so for years and years and have an excellent FF record. In fact if I don't I'll often take the 2nd and 3rd best TE back to back.I am never shy about taking the best K or D either.

If I'm extremely comfy with my RBs, TE, WRs, QB there's nothing wrong with getting the best K and D. I really can't imagine in re-reading what you posted that you think there's something wrong with takng the best D or K.

Your fantasy football record has no bearing on this discussion, and is certainly not any basis of reasoning that taking a TE first is a good methodology in drafting.

if you get good results in drafts where you take the first TE, then in a discussion about drafting a TE first it's only natural to discuss those results when someone says it won't work. I wasn't trying to thump my chest(so to speak)

Please don't misunderstand. In your specific league it may be a great strategy due to the nature of the drafters in your league. However, in general I think it is a mistake as top 5 TEs can be had later.Obviously if there are certain nuances in your specific draft where you can make certain plays because you know the other owners' drafting tendencies, then that is a very specific strategy.

What I meant by saying that your record (or anyone's record for that matter) is not a relevant barometer of success, is that every league varies in skill level, and it is very difficult to measure a strategy that has only worked in one league.

When talking strategy in general, it is meant for an audience that applies to all leagues in general, before getting into specific scoring requirements, etc.

I didn't take it as you thumping your chest.

 

[bagger.]

And I don't make projections. It's a useless exercise.

Well that does explain why you'd take a QB in the first round.How you don't think that using someone else's projections is useless, especially when everyone else is using those same projections (and as such you are limited in what contrarian plays you can make) is interesting to me.

 

[bagger.]

The point is that he isn't nearly as much of a bust as a lot of other players. It's just that several of you guys seem to turn up your nose at anyone who takes a QB early. I saw some people taking Jamal Lewis in the 1st round. Sure he's a RB, but he was in prison the entire off-season. How did these people expect him to be in game shape?

People that took JaLew in the first got what they deserved.That is a good example of the opposite side of the spectrum completely ignoring risk in the first round.

 

[ScottNorwood]

And I don't make projections. It's a useless exercise.

Well that does explain why you'd take a QB in the first round.How you don't think that using someone else's projections is useless, especially when everyone else is using those same projections (and as such you are limited in what contrarian plays you can make) is interesting to me.

Oh I just threw that in as a joke. But I usually take some cheatsheet and move guys up and down based on how I feel they'll do. Everytime I try to overthink things I screw myself up.

 

[bagger.]

So at 3rd overall why did you pass on one of the RBs you mentioned above?

Please explain how this is a good post?

You said that outside of the 3 RBs you mentioned (SA, LT, Edge) Manning was the only one who was certain in your mind. Since you had the 3rd overall pick, you would have had an opportunity to grab one of the 3 you mentioned.I found that curious.

 

[bagger.]

And I don't make projections.  It's a useless exercise.

Well that does explain why you'd take a QB in the first round.How you don't think that using someone else's projections is useless, especially when everyone else is using those same projections (and as such you are limited in what contrarian plays you can make) is interesting to me.

Oh I just threw that in as a joke. But I usually take some cheatsheet and move guys up and down based on how I feel they'll do. Everytime I try to overthink things I screw myself up.

I will admit that there are some excellent drafters that I have played with that draft solely on gut.Whether it is superior talent evaluation or just an intuitive VBD mentality, I am often amazed how well they do by drafting by the seat of their pants.

However, this is definitely the exception not the rule.

Looks like you're one of the exceptions.

 

[Muahahaha]

Some great points in here, I have enjoyed reading them.

Muahahaha,

You're argument makes sense, but ultimately I don't like it........here's why. You admit that going into your draft you are overpaying for Manning, that's not the way you win championships consistantly, period.

You may have an average team, you may not finish worse than those that take a chance at 2 solid RB's because they go on IR.........but 1 or several teams will draft those 2 solid Qb's and find a QB to help the team along with the receivers and they will be the teams that win it all.

Starting your draft by admittingly overpaying for a player is not the way to go IMO.

Please don't make me the Manning-in-the-first-round poster child. I am not advocating drafting him in the first round. I just don't think it is the bust move everybody makes it out to be. You are overpaying, but you are also reducing risk. You are not swinging for the fences for a top RB, but you are also eliminating the possibility of a Barlow last year, JLew this year. The risk is lower, and the expected value is lower. It's like putting your money in TBills instead of Google. You may not choose this route, but there are others that prefer rock solid picks in the first few rounds and fliers late.

You and others are advocating a more risky "bet it on black" approach to the league championship. OK, fine. That is your choice. It is the strategy you prefer. But it is clearly not the ONLY strategy.

Believe it or not, there are people that will sacrifice 3-5 FF pts. game in the early rounds in order to build a rock solid team. What is wrong with that?

[bTW, in my WCOFF satellite, with a $200 buy-in, C-Dubers took Peyton third overall. He currently leads the league. He started with Peyton, LaMont Jordan, & Harrison. He got Steven Davis late. So, solid QB early, flier RB late. Is that really that different than solid RB early, flier QB late? Who am I to say, he is leading the league...]

 

[bagger.]

[bTW, in my WCOFF satellite, with a $200 buy-in, C-Dubers took Peyton third overall.  He currently leads the league.  He started with Peyton, LaMont Jordan, & Harrison.  He got Steven Davis late.  So, solid QB early, flier RB late.  Is that really that different than solid RB early, flier QB late?  Who am I to say, he is leading the league...]

We drafted at 1.09 in the actual WCOFF and grabbed Westbrook in the first and Jordan in the second.If you guys let Jordan slip all the way back to the Manning owner you all made a horrible mistake.

That owner is not leading the league because of Manning, he is leading the league because you all made mistakes in the late 1st and early 2nd by not taking Jordan and allowing him to compensate for the mistake he made.

And to answer your questions, yes it is that different.

 

[Muahahaha]

[bTW, in my WCOFF satellite, with a $200 buy-in, C-Dubers took Peyton third overall. He currently leads the league. He started with Peyton, LaMont Jordan, & Harrison. He got Steven Davis late. So, solid QB early, flier RB late. Is that really that different than solid RB early, flier QB late? Who am I to say, he is leading the league...]

We drafted at 1.09 in the actual WCOFF and grabbed Westbrook in the first and Jordan in the second.If you guys let Jordan slip all the way back to the Manning owner you all made a horrible mistake.

That owner is not leading the league because of Manning, he is leading the league because you all made mistakes in the late 1st and early 2nd by not taking Jordan and allowing him to compensate for the mistake he made.

And to answer your questions, yes it is that different.

1. Your ability to forecast RBs is clearly top-notch. You should definitely never draft a QB early. Others may not be as fortunate.2. This is the 3rd post from you stating that you went Westy/Jordan. We get it. Good job.

3. Jordan's ADP according to AntSports was 2.10 - right where C-Dubers got him. Please show me an ADP listing that has Jordan going before the 22nd overall pick. The FBG overall ADP has Jordan at 26th. And it is my league's fault that he got him?!?!?!

 

[bagger.]

3. Jordan's ADP according to AntSports was 2.10 - right where C-Dubers got him. Please show me an ADP listing that has Jordan going before the 22nd overall pick. The FBG overall ADP has Jordan at 26th. And it is my league's fault that he got him?!?!?!

AntsSports is not PPR.WCOFF is.

If you are using projections and/or ADP for the wrong scoring system for a high stakes league (or a satellite to try to get into one) that's a whole different issue that deserves its own thread.

Westbrook's Antsports ADP is round 2.08, but under WCOFF scoring I had him ranked 8th overall, and was drafted at the end of the first in most of the WCOFF drafts.

Antsports ADP does you no good if it is gathering information from people drafting in a different scoring system.

 

[Reaper]

Westbrook's Antsports ADP is round 2.08, but under WCOFF scoring I had him ranked 8th overall, and was drafted at the end of the first in most of the WCOFF drafts.

Antsports ADP does you no good if it is gathering information from people drafting in a different scoring system.

Draft Dominator From late August had Westbrook as the Fourth overall pick in a PPR.

 

[Ralph Furley]

So at 3rd overall why did you pass on one of the RBs you mentioned above?

Please explain how this is a good post?

You said that outside of the 3 RBs you mentioned (SA, LT, Edge) Manning was the only one who was certain in your mind. Since you had the 3rd overall pick, you would have had an opportunity to grab one of the 3 you mentioned.I found that curious.

I guess you found that curious since you misread what I posted. I said outside of the three players named, Manning was the only one playing with any consistency. At the time I had Edge as 4th on my RB board, but like I said above, I din't think he warranted a 3rd pick overall. I still believe Manning was a sold first roud pick. He is a very solid anchor for any team, especially QB friendly league like mine.

Believe me I labored over this decision for quite some time and did not feel comfortable with either Priest or Edge at the time.

 

[coolnerd]

  But it is clearly not the ONLY strategy. 

This point seems to get lost on some people.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Some great points in here, I have enjoyed reading them.

Muahahaha,

You're argument makes sense, but ultimately I don't like it........here's why.  You admit that going into your draft you are overpaying for Manning, that's not the way you win championships consistantly, period.

You may have an average team, you may not finish worse than those that take a chance at 2 solid RB's because they go on IR.........but 1 or several teams will draft those 2 solid Qb's and find a QB to help the team along with the receivers and they will be the teams that win it all.

Starting your draft by admittingly overpaying for a player is not the way to go IMO.

Please don't make me the Manning-in-the-first-round poster child. I am not advocating drafting him in the first round. I just don't think it is the bust move everybody makes it out to be. You are overpaying, but you are also reducing risk. You are not swinging for the fences for a top RB, but you are also eliminating the possibility of a Barlow last year, JLew this year. The risk is lower, and the expected value is lower. It's like putting your money in TBills instead of Google. You may not choose this route, but there are others that prefer rock solid picks in the first few rounds and fliers late.

You and others are advocating a more risky "bet it on black" approach to the league championship. OK, fine. That is your choice. It is the strategy you prefer. But it is clearly not the ONLY strategy.

Believe it or not, there are people that will sacrifice 3-5 FF pts. game in the early rounds in order to build a rock solid team. What is wrong with that?

[bTW, in my WCOFF satellite, with a $200 buy-in, C-Dubers took Peyton third overall. He currently leads the league. He started with Peyton, LaMont Jordan, & Harrison. He got Steven Davis late. So, solid QB early, flier RB late. Is that really that different than solid RB early, flier QB late? Who am I to say, he is leading the league...]

I know you're not........but you are clearly the main contributor in this thread defending the choice of Manning in the late 1st round. If you think you're not, then you need to go back and reread this thread and look for someone besides you who is defending this style/approach more than you.For what it's worth........I think Manning was actually a better choice in a survivor format where consistancy pays off more than anywhere.

In SSL2, I drafted Manning 4 or 5th overall (can't remember) and then drafted F. Taylor, C. Brown and Larry Johnson (5th) and fillled in with WR's and Te's late. Still alive..........but not sure if it's because of Manning.

 

[Muahahaha]

3. Jordan's ADP according to AntSports was 2.10 - right where C-Dubers got him. Please show me an ADP listing that has Jordan going before the 22nd overall pick. The FBG overall ADP has Jordan at 26th. And it is my league's fault that he got him?!?!?!

AntsSports is not PPR.WCOFF is.

If you are using projections and/or ADP for the wrong scoring system for a high stakes league (or a satellite to try to get into one) that's a whole different issue that deserves its own thread.

Westbrook's Antsports ADP is round 2.08, but under WCOFF scoring I had him ranked 8th overall, and was drafted at the end of the first in most of the WCOFF drafts.

Antsports ADP does you no good if it is gathering information from people drafting in a different scoring system.

I don't know why I am responding to this hijack, but anyway....Footballguys (you may have heard of them) has Lamont Jordan at 23rd overall in their WCOFF-specific cheatsheet.

http://www.footballguys.com/premiumdl/cs_wcoff.htm

I realize that their projections are not as good as yours.

Also, there is this thing called the Fanex Experts Draft. They use WCOFF rules. Lamont Jordan went 24th.

http://football2.myfantasyleague.com/2005/...ns?L=69555&O=17

Of course, these guys only run sites like FantasyGuru, KFFL, FF Index....So, they really don't know what they are doing.

 

[AnonymousBob]

So...does Manning continue to be Manning?

 

[bagger.]

I don't know why I am responding to this hijack, but anyway....

Footballguys (you may have heard of them) has Lamont Jordan at 23rd overall in their WCOFF-specific cheatsheet.

http://www.footballguys.com/premiumdl/cs_wcoff.htm

I realize that their projections are not as good as yours.

Also, there is this thing called the Fanex Experts Draft. They use WCOFF rules. Lamont Jordan went 24th.

http://football2.myfantasyleague.com/2005/...ns?L=69555&O=17

Of course, these guys only run sites like FantasyGuru, KFFL, FF Index....So, they really don't know what they are doing.

Like I said in my previous post, it wasn't just our team who took Jordan in the early 2nd/ late 1st. I will guarantee you that on the day of the WCOFF draft, Jordan's ADP in that room was right around 2.04 (or 16th overall). Obviously many of us in that room knew something these sites didn't. I do not know how many people drafted him earlier than they would have with the Patriots/Raiders game already being played that preceding Thursday. However, we had him pegged as our 2nd round pick if Tiki was not there.If nothing else, it goes to show that following the herd minimizes your ability to exploit value in the draft, and highlights the advantage of creating your own projections that you understand better than using someone else's.

 

[Gamblor]

Like I said in my previous post, it wasn't just our team who took Jordan in the early 2nd/ late 1st.

Wait a minute - are you saying you took Jordan in the early second???

 

[Liquid Tension]

This has been interesting reading, but I think some people are getting too caught up in the relative value part of it. Yes, that is HUGE when looking at when you can get guys and wait, but the key point is not just to look in hind sight and say Oh, you could have gotten Carson Palmer much later. The point the original emailer was making is that getting Manning even early gives you a "guaranteed" top 3 QB. And as almost everyone has said you can't win a league with the first pick, but you could lose it. Manning gives you a solid starter that is more guaranteed than anyone outside of LT2 and S. Alexander. After that, NOTHING was guaranteed to be a top 3 RB. Priest owners are crying, people who took Mcgahee have to be disapointed, What about Deuce owners or Portis, K Jones, J. Jones or Dom Davis?

Only Edge made the cut from the top 10 RB's. Therefore the 5th pick being Manning was a good one and a safe one. Any of those other 7 guys put you in a worse position than having Manning. OK, now I am looking in hindsight (which I said not to do), but the point again was that there are always crap shoots with players, but Manning is consistent and at a high scoring position which does lead to differentials that can be large. Yes, Palmer is doing well and many people thought he would be one of those guys with big improvement, but they could have been wrong just like Kevin Jones owners. Injuries are tough to predict but being a top performer "guaranteed" is very worthy of a top 5 pick. As a Manning owner, would I like better YTD numbers, yes, but if he took this average the rest of the way, there is almost nobody that in the 5 spot I would rather have chosen with my pick (who was realistically on the radar).

 

[David Yudkin]

This has been interesting reading, but I think some people are getting too caught up in the relative value part of it. Yes, that is HUGE when looking at when you can get guys and wait, but the key point is not just to look in hind sight and say Oh, you could have gotten Carson Palmer much later. The point the original emailer was making is that getting Manning even early gives you a "guaranteed" top 3 QB. And as almost everyone has said you can't win a league with the first pick, but you could lose it. Manning gives you a solid starter that is more guaranteed than anyone outside of LT2 and S. Alexander. After that, NOTHING was guaranteed to be a top 3 RB. Priest owners are crying, people who took Mcgahee have to be disapointed, What about Deuce owners or Portis, K Jones, J. Jones or Dom Davis?

Only Edge made the cut from the top 10 RB's. Therefore the 5th pick being Manning was a good one and a safe one. Any of those other 7 guys put you in a worse position than having Manning. OK, now I am looking in hindsight (which I said not to do), but the point again was that there are always crap shoots with players, but Manning is consistent and at a high scoring position which does lead to differentials that can be large. Yes, Palmer is doing well and many people thought he would be one of those guys with big improvement, but they could have been wrong just like Kevin Jones owners. Injuries are tough to predict but being a top performer "guaranteed" is very worthy of a top 5 pick. As a Manning owner, would I like better YTD numbers, yes, but if he took this average the rest of the way, there is almost nobody that in the 5 spot I would rather have chosen with my pick (who was realistically on the radar).

We could debate this thill the cows come home (and in the offseason we did), but as I see it taking Manning in the late first round is equivalent to trying to play every hole of golf to hit par. You may finish near the top but you are setting yourself up not to win. A bit like hitting an iron on every tee shot and laying up on par 5's when you don't need to.As I mentioned earlier, if Manning DID NOT have his 2004 season, Manning would again have been a third or fourth round pick. But he DID have his 2004 campaign and people sent his stock through the roof although it was extremelu unlikely that he would do as well this year.

Manning could very well do better for a few more weeks, but there is a very good chance that he sits in the fantasy playoffs . . . and then what? All those touting that they did not need another QB will be scrambling.

Taking Manning in the early first round MIGHT have been ok in a less competitive league. I've read several people in this thread say that they got RB X or WR Y in the nth round and that helped their cause. The problem in shark leagues, though, is that Larry Johnson would not have been an 11th round pick let alone a 5th round pick.

But what people are forgetting in NOT taking a RB early in the first is if that RB panned out and didn't get hurt, there is a high probability that he would blow Manning's value/production out of the water. Last year was the ONLY year that Manning ranked in the top 10 in terms of value and the 2 years prior to that he ranked 30th and 24th.

Manning early in the first was not a terrible pick in that you likely would get some return on your investment, but it was very unlikely to get you 100% or more. I have a hard time drafting players that have to have one of the top seasons of all time to earn back his draft slot.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

FBG pre-season ADP from the Forecast Section:

1. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/10

2. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/8

3. RB Priest Holmes, KC/5

4. RB Edgerrin James, Ind/8

5. QB Peyton Manning, Ind/8

6. RB Willis McGahee, Buf/9 OK

7. RB Deuce McAllister, NO/10  INJ

8. RB Domanick Davis, Hou/3  INJ

9. RB Clinton Portis, Was/3  OK

10. RB Jamal Lewis, Bal/3  BUST

11. RB Corey Dillon, NE/7  INJ

12. RB Kevin Jones, Det/3  BUST

This is valid. Everyone wants to know how the Manning owner is doing. How's the Priest owner doing? How's the Deuce owner doing? How's the Dom D owner doing? How's the Jamal Lewis, Dillon, K Jones, J Jones, A Green owner doing? Almost half of the top ranked RBs have gotten hurt or been ineffective. That's what makes Peyton a legit 1st rounder. Admittedly I expected him to be closer to last years #s than he has been (since he basically had the same supporting cast coming back this year), but with Culpepper losing Moss, Peyton looked like he was going to be the top QB by a large margin.

My 1st 3 picks were Manning, Chad Johnson, and Steven Jackson

Would I rather have Shaun Alexander and then taken Carson Palmer much later? Of course. Would I rather have Jamal Lewis and Aaron Brooks? No way. You can't win your league in the 1st round, but you can lose it.

Duece owner here. Priest owner here. 12 team and 16 team leagues. First place in both, thank you very much. Didn't hit on Carson Palmer on those leagues either. I did it with Farve in the 7th and Hasselback in the 5th. Once again, Manning owner is mathematically eliminated in both of these leagues.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

The point is that he isn't nearly as much of a bust as a lot of other players.  It's just that several of you guys seem to turn up your nose at anyone who takes a QB early.  I saw some people taking Jamal Lewis in the 1st round.  Sure he's a RB, but he was in prison the entire off-season.  How did these people expect him to be in game shape? 

Back up Scotty...There's a huge difference between Bust and "Maximizing potential"

And read the title of this thread - People aren't "Laughing" at those who took Manning - He's laughing at US We acknowlede the safe pick and the fact that Manning rocks.

I doubt anyone took Jamal over Peyton.

LOL, if it makes you feel better I am really not laughing at you, I am only laughing at the people who labelled him a bust. And IMO he has not been a bust. Also, VBD and other tools to help you draft better or good, but as previously mentioned with the analogy in Poker that there are risks you take in poker that sometimes work just like risks you take in FF that sometimes pay off as well. (now you don't always make these risks because you can be burned, but you sometimes do make them).

Drafting Manning in the first round this year was a risk, but it was an educated risk knowing what I was going to get out of him. It definitely changed my draft strategy picking a QB in the first round but I felt it was the right choice taking him out of the 11 spot. (on a side note we do have a keeper league where you keep 2 players but none that were picked in the first 3 rounds from the previous year and I happend to have Jordan and Walker which were 2 of the best keepers and definitely helped influence my decision). I actually contemplemated many times what I would do if Manning fell to me at that spot and I took up my whole 2 minutes until I finally pulled the trigger on him.

Do I agree with what you are saying? Yes. But, sometimes the risky and aggressive play in FF ends up working. While I think taking Manning in the first round was only slightly risky it was still an aggressive play that may or may not be costing your team loses.

Do I reccomend always taking a QB in the first round? Of course not. But I think Manning can fit into an exception category especially when it is in the lower half of the first round that may be a risky play but not neccessairly dumb one; even if you are playing against the odds.

 

[Bri]

any of you guys draft Warner in the first years ago?Manning's season was record breaking but IIRC Warner was going higher in drafts back then than Manning went this year. I almost wanna say it was Faulk then XX then Warner

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

1) I don't think a good part of the message board is laughing at others or even poking fun at yourself or "Bragging" in any way - I think it's best to raise questions without looking like your patting yourself on the back... As a matter of fact I wanted to link this thread as an example of what's wrong with the boards these days. How can you laugh at others unless you basically win every league you're in? Really, don't you think a new thread about how stupid people were to Draft Martin would be off the wall ridiculous? But, this one isn't? The Jordan thread?

I was just as right as you on Jordan - Maybe moreso since I've owned him in dynasty for a while - I was a fan since Maryland. Why start a posts patting myself on the back or laughing at others? As a matter of fact That Jordan post you bump shows a poll where MOST of the people agreed that Jordan was top 10!!!!!

Then THIS post is a post where a FBG laughs at others while what he states and the way he explains himself flys in the face of VBD - the basic premise of understanding Fantasy Football at this site - WHAT"S FUNNIER THAN THAT? - Someone laughing at others while showing a lack of grasping the theory of winning FF at FBG?

To me, the irony is the funniest thing going right now....

2) It's not "My RB Theory" - It's called VBD.

1) Nice to see you running a tab on my previous posts and telling me what I should and should not post and how to use a message board properly. Not that I feel I should have to defend myself to you, but I have frequented this message board pretty much daily for the past year and have offered more then a pat on the back type of post. 2) You are taking the laughing remark comment so out of context. I started the thread as a way to grab peoples attention and start a great debate and get plenty of useful posts and plenty of great information that you should get on a message board and topic and feel by the quality of posters and posts on this topic I have succeeded greatly, especially being graced by your presence.

3) If you think drafting Martin in the second round this year is on any sort of comparison level a discussion as to the "should I or should I not take Mannning in the first round this year and how it is turning out" discussion then feel free to start that thread and see how well it does.

4) Do you ever make decisions by yourself or are you totally dependent on VBD??? I am not challenging VBD as it is definitely a good tool, but it is not the only tool. You should sell VBD as an infomercial as you clearly are not ever going to second guess it.

5) If you want to talk about irony you tell me to quit it with the back patting, yet you somehow slide in the fact that you drafted Jordan and Westy early in a number of posts in this thread and have had Jordan for sometime and were right about him. Every now and again on a message board it is ok to pardon my play on words but "slap some back patting in" and believe me it is ok.

6) I strongly believe that this message board is the best source of FF info on the web and come here as a stronge advocate praising FBG time and time again for their dedication and knowledge in FF. I don't come here and start a thread wondering "what is wrong with these message boards?" as there is plenty of adminstrators and staff working hard to delete useless posts and posters. I come here to get/gain ff insight and read posts like this one which I have like a sponge absorbed plenty of quality information from.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

any of you guys draft Warner in the first years ago?

Manning's season was record breaking but IIRC Warner was going higher in drafts back then than Manning went this year. I almost wanna say it was Faulk then XX then Warner

Most any draft I was in it was Warner or Faulk #1.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Oh boy, this could get ugly.

1) Nice to see you running a tab on my previous posts and telling me what I should and should not post and how to use a message board properly. Not that I feel I should have to defend myself to you, but I have frequented this message board pretty much daily for the past year and have offered more then a pat on the back type of post.

There is a proper way to use a message board and to follow a certain kind of etiquette. If you have been here for that long, then you should know that the "tooting you horn" posts are not informative, and rather childish.

2) You are taking the laughing remark comment so out of context. I started the thread as a way to grab peoples attention and start a great debate and get plenty of useful posts and plenty of great information that you should get on a message board and topic and feel by the quality of posters and posts on this topic I have succeeded greatly, especially being graced by your presence.

Big pile of

3) If you think drafting Martin in the second round this year is on any sort of comparison level a discussion as to the "should I or should I not take Mannning in the first round this year and how it is turning out" discussion then feel free to start that thread and see how well it does.

Um, thats what we are trying to get away from.

4) Do you ever make decisions by yourself or are you totally dependent on VBD??? I am not challenging VBD as it is definitely a good tool, but it is not the only tool. You should sell VBD as an infomercial as you clearly are not ever going to second guess it.

Who do you think puts together the rankings and projections to use VBD?? If you make the rankings and projections, then you are relying on yourself.

5) If you want to talk about irony you tell me to quit it with the back patting, yet you somehow slide in the fact that you drafted Jordan and Westy early in a number of posts in this thread and have had Jordan for sometime and were right about him. Every now and again on a message board it is ok to pardon my play on words but "slap some back patting in" and believe me it is ok.

Not sure if you read the post, but he was saying that he isn't starting his own thread about it.

 

[Reaper]

This thread went from what I thought was Mocking people who didn't think Manning was worthy of a 1st round spot - People assuming this meant at his ADP of top 5.All the way to Picking Manning AT THE ELEVEN SPOT...IN A KEEPER LEAGUE..WITH JORDAN ALREADY ON THE ROSTER!!!!If this thread started out as:"HA HA I LAUGH AT THE PEOPLE WHO DON"T THINK MANNING IS A GOOD PICK AT ELEVEN WITH JORDAN ON MY ROSTER ALREADY"I never would have even opened it.You got me.Peace Out.