Gravedigger said:
I don't know if the FBG's are using the same logic as I do, but from watching IND, Dungy has grown more comfortable with their defense this year. When they are ahead in games, they do more clock control than they did last year because they feel they can deny opponents where last year they just knew whoever had the ball last might win.
As such, against easier teams this year, Manning has not had 3-4 TD games. He's had consistent production, but nothing flashy.
I believe that slightly tougher competition - especially against the run, will actually improve Mannings numbers. I'm not saying he will out-perform Romo or Brady. I'm saying I will get consistent production from him that is likely to be a bit better than he's done so far this year.
Would I rather have Brady? Sure. Do I think Manning can take me through the play-offs with an above average chance of winning - absolutely. MOST of the time, a QB just can't screw you in the play-offs. It's your other positions that win the games for you. The QB is more apt to lose a game for you with a poor performance than win it if they have a 300 3TD game.
I'd keep Manning unless someone offers you gold or Brady. He's not going to crush, but he's consistent. In the play-offs, one bad game and you are out. Brees, Roeth, etc. etc. are FAR more likely to turn in one bad game. Manning almost never does.
10 - @SD11 - KC
12 - @ATL
13 - JAC
14 - @BAL
15 - @OAK
16 - HOU
Which of these teams do you think he'll be throwing often against? San Diego possibly, but the rest won't be putting up many points, so your post makes my point well. Sure Peyton won't throw clunkers, but would you really value him as the #11 player in a redraft right now?
This gets down to tactic in my opinion. In the leagues I've been in, QB's just don't win you many play-off games unless you are talking 4-5 TD games.Manning is 6th in PPG in my league. His low is 15 and his high is 24. Average is 19.5. Nice and tight.
We've already agreed that Romo and Brady would likely be better options for the play-offs. So who's the #3 QB?
Roeth averages more points, 19.8, but is more volitile (with two 12 and one 15 point game).
Palmer has tossed 12, 13, 13, and 16 point games despite averaging 19.2
Favre has posted TWO 8 point games despite averaging 18.655
Brees has put in 8, 9, and 10 point games.
In the play-offs, which usually last three weeks, I would take a guy that stays dang close to his 19.5 point average week in and week out to a yo-yo producer who could lose you the game by not showing up. The chance of an inconsistent QB posting great numbers three weeks in a row is slim.
It's just my opinion that QB's don't win championships (Actually, I could back it up with data but that's a different thread). I just don't want my QB to lose it for me. As such, despite not having eye-catching performances, I feel a consistent quarterback is rare and a premium should be placed on them- thus I think Manning is worth his #3 ranking.
Will he score fewer points than those listed above over those three weeks? VERY likely. Those are tough teams. Will he improve your chance of winning a Superbowl? I believe it's very likely.
And, to answer your question more specifically, I expect Manning to put up points against every one of those teams. I would actually bet that he averages more than 19.5 against the three teams that are my play-offs (BAL, OAK, HOU). Even if they do not score much, Indy will be in the 20's. That's 200-250 yards and about 2 TD's per game. Just like always.
I realize your gripe might be how MUCH he's valued compared to the others. Where people draw the line is up to them. But another reason I think he's worth it is because SoS is VERY useful with most players but mostly irrelevant with 'studs'. I do not trade or pull studs based on SoS. Even against NE's stingy DF, Manning got me 19.1 points. Just .4 shy of his average. And against significantly inferior teams that 'don't score much', he's done the same (CAR 18, JCK 20, TB 18 HOU 15, early NO 24).
