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Philip Rivers....anyone worried? (1 Viewer)

A

Astangi

Footballguy
Haven't watched every game, but he just looked out of sorts against the Pats last week and he seems to be throwing picks all over the place....at least by his standards. Now a stinker today and with Gates potentially being M.I.A. for awhile, is anyone else concerned with their consensus Top5 preseason QB? The yards and attempts are all there, tho the Y/A is a bit low.

Is it just me? Maybe he's close to his norm and it's just the rest of the league blowing up the stat lines?

 
I think that I'm gonna start benching him for flacco, he seems to be lost out there he just throws it up all the time now his receivers are making him look decent this year but if you watch him he looks like garbage

 
I think he will find his stride but right now he's trying to do too much and forcing too many throws. Without Gates I'm not sure he can be elite. They also need that 2nd receiver to step up opposite Jackson. Last year it didn't matter who was out there. This year guys are just not getting open. Rivers is better than that though, so I expect him to pick it up.

 
Ive been worried about Rivers as a "quarterback" his entire time.

I am not worried, however, about his stats. He is a monster.

Not much has changed on either front.

I'd keep on starting him over the Flaccos and Sanchezs of the world.

 
Let's toss out the last 5 years on a solid if not spectacular resume and judge him based on a game where he was down a HoF TE, a WR2 that was gimpy, c'mon folks, think a little bit here.

 
I only saw the first quarter, but during that time, KC was getting good pressure on him and he was getting knocked around. I assume that was a factor. Also, IMO defensive pass interference should have been called on his first interception; the announcers agreed.

ETA: I think he'll be fine, for both NFL and fantasy.

 
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I certainly hope his owner in my league is worried after this week. Maybe I'll look him up and see if he's willing to deal Rivers at a discount.

 
The team looks just like it did last December. They were throwing for >300yds per game before the week 10 bye. After, about 250. since that bye, they seem to be:

[*]More run-focused in the red zone

[*]Less deep balls thrown

[*]More miscommunication with the ball catchers

[*]Gates-less

[*]have VJax; not that it is his fault. He's played well, but the correlation to this trend is there

I'd be pleased to buy low here though, especially if the Raiders play well enough to make the Chargers play out the schedule hard. The Chargers are one of a handful of offenses that have "300-yd-passing-credibility" and that is generally a good thing to trade into; esp. when Philly (300 yds pass/run) and Indy have fallen out of that group for now.

 
The biggest change, IMO, has been the Yards per completion. Rivers was the most aggressive, downfield QB among the elite QBs over the past few seasons. He finished 3rd in Yd/Cmp in '08, first in '09, and 2nd in 2010, averaging 13.2 YPC over that span.

Through three games, he has a 68% completion rate but is averaging just 11.4 YPC. That, to me, seems like a philosophical shift, and is perhaps worrisome.

 
'Just Win Baby said:
I only saw the first quarter, but during that time, KC was getting good pressure on him and he was getting knocked around. I assume that was a factor. Also, IMO defensive pass interference should have been called on his first interception; the announcers agreed.ETA: I think he'll be fine, for both NFL and fantasy.
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I expected you to open up a can of whoopass, very disappointed.
 
'Chase Stuart said:
The biggest change, IMO, has been the Yards per completion. Rivers was the most aggressive, downfield QB among the elite QBs over the past few seasons. He finished 3rd in Yd/Cmp in '08, first in '09, and 2nd in 2010, averaging 13.2 YPC over that span.Through three games, he has a 68% completion rate but is averaging just 11.4 YPC. That, to me, seems like a philosophical shift, and is perhaps worrisome.
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I suspect at least some of this has to do with a small sample size that includes three games, including one in which Gates was taken out by Belichick and one in which Gates was out due to injury. I don't have the numbers, but I suspect the RBs have been targeted a bit more often than in recent years, which could lead to lower ypc.It also seems that Rivers has been under pressure quite a bit so far this year... perhaps leading to more checkdowns?Again, I don't have data to back this up, just impressions from watching parts of all three games so far.
 
'Just Win Baby said:
'Chase Stuart said:
The biggest change, IMO, has been the Yards per completion. Rivers was the most aggressive, downfield QB among the elite QBs over the past few seasons. He finished 3rd in Yd/Cmp in '08, first in '09, and 2nd in 2010, averaging 13.2 YPC over that span.Through three games, he has a 68% completion rate but is averaging just 11.4 YPC. That, to me, seems like a philosophical shift, and is perhaps worrisome.
Click to expand...
I suspect at least some of this has to do with a small sample size that includes three games, including one in which Gates was taken out by Belichick and one in which Gates was out due to injury. I don't have the numbers, but I suspect the RBs have been targeted a bit more often than in recent years, which could lead to lower ypc.It also seems that Rivers has been under pressure quite a bit so far this year... perhaps leading to more checkdowns?Again, I don't have data to back this up, just impressions from watching parts of all three games so far.
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JWB, can you tell me your opinion of VJax? Because I think he disappears and his big numbers were when NE was 2 TDs ahead. He was 2/30 week 1, not much of an impact in the win today. What does that guy do to win games for San Diego? What would Fitzgerald do with a QB like Rivers or vice versa? Roddy White, Calvin Johnson...I just don't see VJax in that category although he has some blow up numbers at times. I guess I mean in NFL terms more than fantasy terms. I'll hang up and listen, thanks.
 
'Ministry of Pain said:
'Just Win Baby said:
'Chase Stuart said:
The biggest change, IMO, has been the Yards per completion. Rivers was the most aggressive, downfield QB among the elite QBs over the past few seasons. He finished 3rd in Yd/Cmp in '08, first in '09, and 2nd in 2010, averaging 13.2 YPC over that span.Through three games, he has a 68% completion rate but is averaging just 11.4 YPC. That, to me, seems like a philosophical shift, and is perhaps worrisome.
Click to expand...
I suspect at least some of this has to do with a small sample size that includes three games, including one in which Gates was taken out by Belichick and one in which Gates was out due to injury. I don't have the numbers, but I suspect the RBs have been targeted a bit more often than in recent years, which could lead to lower ypc.It also seems that Rivers has been under pressure quite a bit so far this year... perhaps leading to more checkdowns?Again, I don't have data to back this up, just impressions from watching parts of all three games so far.
Click to expand...
JWB, can you tell me your opinion of VJax? Because I think he disappears and his big numbers were when NE was 2 TDs ahead. He was 2/30 week 1, not much of an impact in the win today. What does that guy do to win games for San Diego? What would Fitzgerald do with a QB like Rivers or vice versa? Roddy White, Calvin Johnson...I just don't see VJax in that category although he has some blow up numbers at times. I guess I mean in NFL terms more than fantasy terms. I'll hang up and listen, thanks.
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I think VJax is great. In 2008 and 2009, using FBG scoring he finished as WR12 and WR10, respectively, despite getting just over 100 targets each season. There are WRs out there who get 150+ targets, including the other guys you named. For example, consider the targets of these guys for 2008-2009: White (313), Fitz (305), Calvin (288), Jackson (208). Now consider their fantasy points (FBG scoring): Fitz (396.2), White (362.2), Calvin (340.3), Jackson (330.3). Jackson was WR7 over that span, despite the huge disparity in targets.The thing is, those other guys haven't all played in an offense that targets its RBs so heavily in the passing game, and none of them have been playing with Gates or his equivalent, either. You can't really debate the offensive philosophy, which has resulted in a strong passing game since 2008.In week 1 this year, he and Rivers missed connecting on a 40 yard TD by about a foot. In week 2, he dominated all game. In week 3, he had a solid game, not terrible. IMO his game results so far do not reflect his effectiveness.Rivers will find the guy who is open week in, week out, so Jackson's targets will likely be a bit inconsistent. That said, I expect he'll have a career high in targets this year if he stays healthy, and, as a result, I think he'll also put up career highs in yards and TDs.
 
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How anyone watching the first three games is not worried about Rivers is beyond me. I love the guy, but his YPA are down, Gates is most likely limited the rest of the season (best case scenario), Matthews is giving them a decent running game, and the O-line hasn't done a great job pass blocking. Chase already mentioned how he's checking down constantly to his RB's, which is disconcerting. With Gates out, teams will roll a safety over the top to take away VJax and they lack a true #2 on the other side.

I'm willing to entertain offers for him, as a lot of people will think he's still going to be a monster and finish with gaudy numbers. With what I have seen through three games, I can't help but believe that what we have seen from the SD O will continue.

 
I'm worried for Rivers. He seems to be checking down a lot more on the first 2 downs, and he really has no one else to throw to besides V.Jackson. He's pretty much playing "as bad" as Freeman has been, except he throws more--does that make sense? KC allowed DET and BUF's qbs to have better performances, but Rivers did not. Alarm bells are going off.

 
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Week 1 and 2 fantasy wise were pretty solid he averaged 350 yards 2 TD 2 INT, once Gates is back in the picture and someone steps up at the WR2 spot he will be right back where he should be!! Like every year the charger take time to get fully CHARGED up and going, they will start clicking on all cylinders sooner than and anyone who drops or trades him will be sorry!!!

 
'therokie0070 said:
Week 1 and 2 fantasy wise were pretty solid he averaged 350 yards 2 TD 2 INT, once Gates is back in the picture and someone steps up at the WR2 spot he will be right back where he should be!! Like every year the charger take time to get fully CHARGED up and going, they will start clicking on all cylinders sooner than and anyone who drops or trades him will be sorry!!!
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I don't think Gates will be much of a factor this year with that foot injury. Did Rivers start slow like this the past two years? I know the Chargers as a team always have, but I thought he was still putting up solid fantasy numbers.
 
'therokie0070 said:
Week 1 and 2 fantasy wise were pretty solid he averaged 350 yards 2 TD 2 INT, once Gates is back in the picture and someone steps up at the WR2 spot he will be right back where he should be!! Like every year the charger take time to get fully CHARGED up and going, they will start clicking on all cylinders sooner than and anyone who drops or trades him will be sorry!!!
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Not sure A) is something we can count on.....nor B, necessarily.

 
So my cuz and SD homer took Rivers with the 4th overall pick, wonder how he is feeling taking the leagues leading interception thrower with that pick.

This guy dont have Gates healthy, and that allows them to focus and double cover VJax. Gates is the key to opening up this offense.

 
Well, the guy did have one bad statistical week. Probably time to cut bait.

Okay: yes, he's throwing a high number of picks. But the fact that he's got years of great statistical production behind him, and is still, even AFTER yesterday's disaster, on pace for 5000+/20+ should probably ease your fears.

 
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I think a lot of the Rivers/Jackson overreaction is due to what they are doing lately on offense. It isn't pretty but they are 2-1, which is a lot different from what they are used to in September.

Watching yesterday they made mention that Jackson has been moved into the slot a lot more this year...I am assuming to create the same mismatch Gates would consistently see. Jackson is running lots underneath lately, and the trend continued yesterday. You just wont see a ton of "Go Deep and chuck it up" stuff if he is spending more time in the slot, especially with the protection his line is not giving him. A lot of that came from being flanked out wide last year.

 
From '08 to '10, the SD targets were broken down as follows:

28% to RBs

23% to TEs

49% to WRs

This year, it's

38% to RBs

19% to TEs

43% to WRs

Not a huge change, but it's worth monitoring. And, of course, it's not helping that Gates isn't doing well. But Tolbert and Mathews are 2nd and 3rd on the team in targets. Again, could be a sample size issue, but don't ignore.

 
I think Rivers is trying to do too much right now. Some of it has to do with the OL but they haven't had a good OL for quite awhile. The INT on the deep ball to Floyd may have been an anomaly because a healthy Floyd probably beats most CB's on that play in single coverage. Rivers may have just thrown the ball to where Floyd normally is when he's healthy. The INT that was intended for VJax was a terrible throw on the move. People may complain that there was pass interference but the only reason there may have been pass interference is because the throw was so poor. I would have liked to see him simply throw the ball away in a situation like that against an opponent like KC. I don't blame him for trying to force the ball on the road in NE but at home vs KC? Just don't make mistakes and let TO's keep them in the game.

Part of the fumbling issue can be blamed on Rivers due to ball security but part of it is the way he plays fearless in the pocket and is always looking for the strike down field. I wish he'd unload the ball a little quicker sometimes to avoid taking some of the big hits he has so far this season. I think Norv has put the team in situations to succeed this year but Rivers isn't making the decisions with the ball we are used to seeing. I'd really like to see some more maximum protect blocking schemes mixed in. I think if you give Rivers time he'll find someone open.

MOP, I completely agree with you in regards to Vincent Jackson. He's a very good WR, a great deep threat. When people were asking "Should I be drafting VJ or Fitz?" I thought that it was a joke. Jackson will blow up for some big plays in a single games but guys like Fitz/Calvin/AJ are HOF type talents. There is a HUGE step down from those guys to VJ and the fact you ask the question what would one of those guys do if they had Rivers throwing to them is key. Imagine for a moment if VJ had demanded a multi-year contract to show up this year. If he was sitting out all we would hear today is SD would have beat KC by 30 if Jackson had been playing. I asked last year how much they would have beaten CIN by and made the playoffs last year if VJ would have played in that game.... and all I heard in response was crickets. VJ was completely invisible in that game.

 
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