Zyphros' Rankings (Updated 2/11) (2 Viewers)

[Zyphros]

Slight update after tonight

CEH down to #18. Gibson jumps into Tier3 and Henry drops down to the bottom.

Tier #3 is now Akers/Dobbins/Swift/Robinson/Ekeler/CEH/Gibson/Henry. Never liked CEH all that much, thought he was a tier4 talent profile, purely situation elevated him so high. Hindsight mistake. The more I see CEH play, the more I realize how bad they wanted Damien Williams to be there on early down work. CEH isn't there. He's the new James White. The only reason he's #18 now is because Gibson is on a piss pour team with no QB. If he had a team around him, Gibson would lead this tier easily.

 

[Truebluey]

It's Dynasty, too many sudden (Over?) reactions here for my taste.  A couple of weeks don't move the needle for me much in Dynasty. That's why I have Hunt, Cook and Mixon rated more highly than on your list. But I do appreciate it, it sparks debate, and that's what we love. 

 

[tangfoot]

I believe dynasty rankings should be more fluid week to week, otherwise you are missing out on some screaming buy opportunities. 

 

[Truebluey]

I believe dynasty rankings should be more fluid week to week, otherwise you are missing out on some screaming buy opportunities. 

Such as? Who is a screaming buy right now? For sure Gibson is a fast riser, but he's going to be tough to buy atm. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It's Dynasty, too many sudden (Over?) reactions here for my taste.  A couple of weeks don't move the needle for me much in Dynasty. That's why I have Hunt, Cook and Mixon rated more highly than on your list. But I do appreciate it, it sparks debate, and that's what we love. 

Everyone has their own approach to dynasty but for me personally I am fully open to rankings changing a lot over the first few weeks of the season.

Dynasty rankings change DRASTICALLY from year to year and the biggest part of that move comes at the beginning of the season.  Heading into last year LeVeon, Conner, Gurley, Gordon were all top 25 dynasty players.  JuJu and David Johnson were top 10.  Hilton, Brown, Kerryon, Cooks, and Thielen weren't far behind the top 25 either.

Even if you sold them at a loss a few weeks into the season you still came out way ahead compared to stubbornly holding them all year and hoping their value would bounce back.

The same thing works in the other direction.  Aaron Jones, Godwin, Henry were available for pretty reasonable prices headed into the year.  Even if you "overpaid" for them after a few weeks you still came out way ahead versus trying to wait for the market to correct later.

Obviously this doesn't work every time and there will be plenty of guys that regress back to their original ranking too but the reality is next offseason's dynasty rankings will look MASSIVELY different than this offseason's and we have a huge preview of what those changes will be right now.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Such as? Who is a screaming buy right now? For sure Gibson is a fast riser, but he's going to be tough to buy atm. 

depends how deep your league is

gabriel davis, darnell mooney in deeper leagues

the window to buy antonio gibson or james robinson closed

dj chark and joe mixon buy low windows closed

 

[IHEARTFF]

guess you can try to buy saquan low still

 

[Zyphros]

It's Dynasty, too many sudden (Over?) reactions here for my taste.  A couple of weeks don't move the needle for me much in Dynasty. That's why I have Hunt, Cook and Mixon rated more highly than on your list. But I do appreciate it, it sparks debate, and that's what we love. 

Like what sudden reactions? A couple weeks is all we have to go off of for the young guys becoming integral parts of their offense. If they've proved helpful for fantasy and show ceilings, they move up. There's a lot of replaceable guys every year in the 20-50 range, I'd rather bump the roster clogger, older guys, questionable starters out for the youth upside. Others might favor the instant production overall. Both could be valid. 

I agree that Hunt and Mixon are a bit low, but I'm scared the offense will funnel through Burrow instead of Mixon. And Hunt, although very talented, is in a timeshare (not with the Chubb injury) for the future with another very good RB. As for Cook, didn't realize #6 would be considered low (since CEH goes down, Cook moves up to 6). 

 

[Zyphros]

Let's talk 2021 rookies yeah?

I think it's even harder this year with opt-out's, cancelled games, and other incomplete activity. Breakout age's and Dominator ratings are likely to be skewed in some way because of all of this. It'll be very interesting to see how people "scout" or evaluate them because of all the craziness. 

This is just an initial list of what I perceive to be their talent but I'm hoping to begin discussions on some 2021 rookies. This board is full of re-draft people at this time of year usually, but I like looking forward. There's a few guys I've identified as personal favorites, I do that part every year, but mostly it's just gut reactions to watching them play rather than an actual evaluation. Some players I've barely seen any film on, some there's enough games that I got a grasp of. But here we go, these are based on FULL PPR leagues with a caveat rankings wise if it were .5ppr. Lists for WR's and RB's, no idea for a draft order or anything yet. 

RB's

1. Javonte Williams - Favorite this year, huge riser from 2019-2020. Probably a bit controversial, I think his floor is steadier and his ceiling is higher as a full workload type of RB more so than Etienne or Harris. 

2. Travis Etienne 

3. Najee Harris (swap with #2 in .5ppr or standard)

4. Chuba Hubbard

5. Jermar Jefferson

6. Kenny Gainwell 

7. Elijah Mitchell - Favorite from last year

WR's

1. Justyn Ross - I'm well aware of his medical history, he just has to be put up this high because of his talent. Medical and how all of that moves forward will be huge and if things check out, he'll be a massive steal for fantasy players and NFL franchises. More of an honorable mention but good god the dude was an insane talent. Can't say I've heard anything about his medical, or if he even wants to continue to play. If he does come out, some team will take on the risk, and hopefully Ross gets all the info and makes a choice that is in his best interest. 

2. Ja'Marr Chase

3. Jaylen Waddle

4. Rondale Moore

5. Devonta Smith

6. Tylan Wallace - Favorite from last year

7. Terrace Marshall

8. Sage Surratt - Favorite this year

9. Rashod Bateman

10. Amon-Ra St. Brown

11. Seth Williams

That's what I have for now. There's probably another 50 guys I need to watch, and these 18 I need to watch a lot more of to get a better grasp of where I'd rank them but this is my starting point. Hopefully they all come out and go to the NFL because this class has me excited. 

 

[Zyphros]

My current draft rankings:

1. Javonte Williams, 2. Najee Harris, 3. Travis Etienne, 4. Ja'Marr Chase,

5. Chuba Hubbard, 6. Kylin Hill, 7. Jaylen Waddle, 8. DeVonta Smith, 9. Trey Sermon, 10. Justyn Ross (I hope he comes out and clears medical), 11. Rashod Bateman, 12. Larry Rountree, 13. Jermar Jefferson, 14. Kenny Gainwell,

15. Tylan Wallace, 16. Sage Surratt, 17. Elijah Mitchell, 18. Rhamondre Stevens, 19. Rondale Moore, 20. Brian Robinson Jr., 21. Terrace Marshall, 22. Amon-Ra St. Brown,

23. Seth Williams, 24. Dyami Brown, 25. Michael Carter, 26. Zamir White, 27. Elijah Moore, 28. Trey Ragas, 29. Brendan Knox, 30. CJ Verdell, 31. Javian Hawkins

That's where I'm relatively comfortable ranking them for now as if I were drafting off this board. I have tier breaks after top4, 14, 22, and 31 for now. And this doesn't include QB's and TE's which would probably push this to 40 or so. I don't really play 1QB leagues anymore but I imagine Lawrence goes somewhere between 7 and 12. Fields as well I suppose. Pitts would be top10 easily, just not sure where in TE premium, and I have 0 clue on the other TE's. 

Honestly the entire 3rd tier is full of great value. Buy up all the 2nds you can to get a few of them. 4th tier I'm not so sure of but I can guarantee some of the 3rd tier are going to be fantastic fantasy producers. 

Next grouping would be Olave, Terry, Toney, Ihmatorbhebhe, Atwell, Rodgers, Newsome, Schwartz, Ingram, Teague, Felton, Brooks, Boyd, P. Williams but there's only 2 in there that I feel I have a good enough grasp on to rank accordingly. 

If you want a super deep sleeper, but it'll take at least a year or 2 of development I'd look at Austin Watkins. 

Next step for me is to finish my list of prospects, about 20 more to go (please if you have prospects that you I'd love to add them to my list), and then put them into my dynasty rankings. 

 

[Zyphros]

Man it's been a while. I've been looking through so many prospects, finalizing my list and arguing on Twitter a bit. 

My rookie list hasn't changed all that much, other than getting a lot deeper. I've gone through about 60 players, this will include the top45. Figured a big comprehensive post is best. Dynasty rankings, rookie rankings, favorite's list and all. 

Here's where my rookies fall into my dynasty rankings for startup purposes. Rookies are in blue and if you go in order, that would be my top22

RB's

Tier 1 - (1) Jonathan Taylor, (2) Christian McCaffrey, (3) Saquon Barkley, (4) Dalvin Cook

Tier 2 - (5) Cam Akers, (6) Josh Jacobs, (7) Antonio Gibson, (8) James Robinson, (9) Miles Sanders, (10) DeAndre Swift, (11) Joe Mixon

Tier 3 - (12) Javonte Williams, (13) JK Dobbins, (14) Alvin Kamara, (15) Travis Etienne, (16) Najee Harris, (17) Austin Ekeler, (18) Nick Chubb

Tier 4 - (19) Chuba Hubbard, (20) Clyde Edwards-Helaire, (21) Aaron Jones, (22) Ezekiel Elliott DND, (23) Derrick Henry DND, (24) Kylin Hill, (25) David Montgomery

Tier 5 - (26) Trey Sermon, (27) Ronald Jones, (28) Kenny Gainwell, (29) AJ Dillon, (30) Larry Rountree, (31) Jermar Jefferson, (32) Kareem Hunt, (33) Zack Moss, (34) Myles Gaskin, (35) Chris Carson, (36) Melvin Gordon DND, (37) Elijah Mitchell

WR's

Tier 1 - (1) Justin Jefferson, (2) CeeDee Lamb, (3) DK Metcalf, (4) DeAndre Hopkins, (5) Davante Adams, (6) AJ Brown, (7) Tyreek Hill DND

Tier 2 - (8) Ja'Marr Chase, (9) Stefon Diggs, (10) Calvin Ridley, (11) Tee Higgins, (12) Chris Godwin, (13) DJ Moore, (14) Terry McLaurin

Tier 3 - (15) Jaylen Waddle, (16) Rashod Bateman, (17) Keenan Allen DND, (18) Allen Robinson, (19) Michael Thomas DND, (20) Mike Evans, (21) Courtland Sutton, (22) Amari Cooper, (23) Brandon Aiyuk, (24) Terrace Marshall, (25) Jalen Reagor, (26) JuJu Smith-Schuster, (27) Deebo Samuel, (28) Chase Claypool

Tier 4 - (29) DJ Chark, (30) Cooper Kupp, (31) Robert Woods DND, (32) Michael Gallup, (33) DeVonta Smith, (34) Diontae Johnson, (35) Will Fuller, (36) Kenny Golladay, (37) Denzel Mims, (38) Gabriel Davis, (39) Devante Parker, (40) Laviska Shenault, (41) Tylan Wallace, (42) Preston Williams, (43) Tyler Boyd, (44) Adam Thielen DND, (45) Rondale Moore, (46) Tyler Lockett, (47) Corey Davis, (48) Sage Surratt, (49) Amon-Ra St. Brown

Tier 5 - (50) Jerry Jeudy, (51) Bryan Edwards, (52) Seth Williams, (53) Odell Beckham, (54) Marquise Brown, (55) Lynn Bowden, (56) Robby Anderson, (57) Christian Kirk, (58) Donovan Peoples-Jones, (59) Michael Pittman, (60) Dyami Brown, (61) Elijah Moore, (62) Sterling Shepard, (63) Tyler Johnson, (64) Parris Campbell, (65) Jarvis Landry, (66) Kelvin Harmon

As for rookies, after those 22 this is the rough order:

Rhamondre Stevenson, Brian Robinson Jr, Michael Carter, Khalil Herbert, Pooka Williams, Tamorrion Terry, Trey Ragas, Amari Rodgers, Kadarius Toney, Austin Watkins, Damon Hazelton, Master Teague, Brendan Knox, Josh Imatorbhebhe, Nico Collins, CJ Verdell, Rakeem Boyd, Justin Henderson, Anthony Schwartz, Tutu Atwell, Demetric Felton, Jaret Patterson, Dazz Newsome

That would be a total of top45 for rookies, I have a list of 30 more rookies to go through. None of them are high profile names so I doubt they crack my top40. 

Then to top it all off I have my personal favorites every year:

WR Favorites: Jaylen Waddle, Sage Surratt, Austin Watkins, Damon Hazelton. I had 3 more but they returned to school.

RB Favorites: Javonte Williams, Larry Rountree, Elijah Mitchell. I had 4 more RB's and they returned to school. 

 

[Soulfly3]

Zyph, I love you baby...

But Chubb at 18 is a declaration of war. 

 

[JoeJoe88]

Zyph, I love you baby...

But Chubb at 18 is a declaration of war. 

Ahead of Zeke, Aaron Jones and Henry haha 

 

[ffmail4me]

Man it's been a while. I've been looking through so many prospects, finalizing my list and arguing on Twitter a bit. 

My rookie list hasn't changed all that much, other than getting a lot deeper. I've gone through about 60 players, this will include the top45. Figured a big comprehensive post is best. Dynasty rankings, rookie rankings, favorite's list and all. 

Here's where my rookies fall into my dynasty rankings for startup purposes. Rookies are in blue and if you go in order, that would be my top22

RB's

Tier 1 - (1) Jonathan Taylor, (2) Christian McCaffrey, (3) Saquon Barkley, (4) Dalvin Cook

Tier 2 - (5) Cam Akers, (6) Josh Jacobs, (7) Antonio Gibson, (8) James Robinson, (9) Miles Sanders, (10) DeAndre Swift, (11) Joe Mixon

Tier 3 - (12) Javonte Williams, (13) JK Dobbins, (14) Alvin Kamara, (15) Travis Etienne, (16) Najee Harris, (17) Austin Ekeler, (18) Nick Chubb

Tier 4 - (19) Chuba Hubbard, (20) Clyde Edwards-Helaire, (21) Aaron Jones, (22) Ezekiel Elliott DND, (23) Derrick Henry DND, (24) Kylin Hill, (25) David Montgomery

Tier 5 - (26) Trey Sermon, (27) Ronald Jones, (28) Kenny Gainwell, (29) AJ Dillon, (30) Larry Rountree, (31) Jermar Jefferson, (32) Kareem Hunt, (33) Zack Moss, (34) Myles Gaskin, (35) Chris Carson, (36) Melvin Gordon DND, (37) Elijah Mitchell

WR's

Tier 1 - (1) Justin Jefferson, (2) CeeDee Lamb, (3) DK Metcalf, (4) DeAndre Hopkins, (5) Davante Adams, (6) AJ Brown, (7) Tyreek Hill DND

Tier 2 - (8) Ja'Marr Chase, (9) Stefon Diggs, (10) Calvin Ridley, (11) Tee Higgins, (12) Chris Godwin, (13) DJ Moore, (14) Terry McLaurin

Tier 3 - (15) Jaylen Waddle, (16) Rashod Bateman, (17) Keenan Allen DND, (18) Allen Robinson, (19) Michael Thomas DND, (20) Mike Evans, (21) Courtland Sutton, (22) Amari Cooper, (23) Brandon Aiyuk, (24) Terrace Marshall, (25) Jalen Reagor, (26) JuJu Smith-Schuster, (27) Deebo Samuel, (28) Chase Claypool

Tier 4 - (29) DJ Chark, (30) Cooper Kupp, (31) Robert Woods DND, (32) Michael Gallup, (33) DeVonta Smith, (34) Diontae Johnson, (35) Will Fuller, (36) Kenny Golladay, (37) Denzel Mims, (38) Gabriel Davis, (39) Devante Parker, (40) Laviska Shenault, (41) Tylan Wallace, (42) Preston Williams, (43) Tyler Boyd, (44) Adam Thielen DND, (45) Rondale Moore, (46) Tyler Lockett, (47) Corey Davis, (48) Sage Surratt, (49) Amon-Ra St. Brown

Tier 5 - (50) Jerry Jeudy, (51) Bryan Edwards, (52) Seth Williams, (53) Odell Beckham, (54) Marquise Brown, (55) Lynn Bowden, (56) Robby Anderson, (57) Christian Kirk, (58) Donovan Peoples-Jones, (59) Michael Pittman, (60) Dyami Brown, (61) Elijah Moore, (62) Sterling Shepard, (63) Tyler Johnson, (64) Parris Campbell, (65) Jarvis Landry, (66) Kelvin Harmon

Doh, nevermind just realized I missed a few guys 

 

[Zyphros]

Zyph, I love you baby...

But Chubb at 18 is a declaration of war. 

I knew you’d have some fighting words ha. If it makes you feel better this is for PPR leagues so he does get dinged a bit. I’m worried we just saw his ceiling for the rest of his career, carrying half the load (not the pass catching one). 

 

[ffmail4me]

Zyphros where do you have Mooney and Samuel on your list? Surprised to see Harmon before either of them...unless I just missed them 

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Ballsy call on DeVonta Smith. 

No TEs?

 

[Buckna]

Why the DND on soon to be 27 year old Tyreek? Character concerns?

 

[Boston]

Great job, appreciate it...why so much love for all rookie RBs...I totally get Najee, Etienne and Williams but putting Hill over Montgomery who will only be 24 in June?  Hubbard over Henry?  I get that Henry is not getting any younger but you are ranking a non-elite RB prospect over a 2,000 yard rusher...I would 100% rather have 2 more years of solid Henry production versus the hope Hubbard even starts...I understand the value of youth but youth can not out-weigh talent if your goal is to win.

 

[rockaction]

Great job, appreciate it...why so much love for all rookie RBs...I totally get Najee, Etienne and Williams but putting Hill Montgomery who will only be 24 in June?  Hubbard over Henry?  I get that Henry is not getting any younger but you are ranking a non-elite RB prospect over a 2,000 yard rusher...I would 100% rather have 2 more years of solid Henry production versus the hope Hubbard even starts...I understand the value of youth but youth can not out-weigh talent if your goal is to win.

There's honestly too much emphasis on youth in Zyphros's rankings, but there should be when it comes to RBs. They tend to not be among the top ten in positional point scorers once they're past twenty-five, and much less so at twenty-seven or twenty-eight. Once you're there, you're looking at cliffs. So I don't blame him too much at RB, I guess, except for the twenty-four year-olds, like Montgomery, who was a RB6 or 7 overall last year.

 

[Boston]

There's honestly too much emphasis on youth in Zyphros's rankings, but there should be when it comes to RBs. They tend to not be among the top ten in positional point scorers once they're past twenty-five, and much less so at twenty-seven or twenty-eight. Once you're there, you're looking at cliffs. So I don't blame him too much at RB, I guess, except for the twenty-four year-olds, like Montgomery, who was a RB6 or 7 overall last year.

Agree and disagree...agree about the youth-factor on RBs...when to break-up with a stud RB is one of the key components to long-term fantasy success and a year too early is always better then a year too late...yet, just because a RB is young doesn't mean he will be good...also because a player like Henry is now 27 doesn't mean I would rather have a second round pick over him, that makes zero sense to me...I say that as someone who usually loads up on rookie RBs like Hill and Hubbard but I do that hoping they will pan out not with the expectation they will be better then a Montgomery or Henry.

 

[rockaction]

Agree and disagree...agree about the youth-factor on RBs...when to break-up with a stud RB is one of the key components to long-term fantasy success and a year too early is always better then a year too late...yet, just because a RB is young doesn't mean he will be good...also because a player like Henry is now 27 doesn't mean I would rather have a second round pick over him, that makes zero sense to me.

I think it's a personal preference thing. I just saw the other day a guy talking about dynasty rules. His were hard-and-fast about ages with very little exception. He said trying to suss out the ones that are different leaves you holding the bag too often. Great RBs that nobody could have foreseen falling off the cliff over the age of 25 happen all the time. He then pointed to examples like Le'Veon Bell, Gurley, etc. None of those guys had dynasty GMs unanimously seeing impending doom, but the hard-and-fast rules prevailed. I'm fairly new to this, so my thinking on this is subject to change, but the 25/6 year-old rule sounds awfully statistically sound, and therefore, appealing to this dynasty owner.

 

[Boston]

I think it's a personal preference thing. I just saw the other day a guy talking about dynasty rules. His were hard-and-fast about ages with very little exception. He said trying to suss out the ones that are different leaves you holding the bag too often. Great RBs that nobody could have foreseen falling off the cliff over the age of 25 happen all the time. He then pointed to examples like Le'Veon Bell, Gurley, etc. None of those guys had dynasty GMs unanimously seeing impending doom, but the hard-and-fast rules prevailed. I'm fairly new to this, so my thinking on this is subject to change, but the 25/6 year-old rule sounds awfully statistically sound, and therefore, appealing to this dynasty owner.

I think you are missing my point (sorry if you aren't)...I don't disagree with what you posted...the part I am really pointing out is just because a RB is young doesn't mean he should be ranked over proven talent.

 

[rockaction]

I think you are missing my point (sorry if you aren't)...I don't disagree with what you posted...the part I am really pointing out is just because a RB is young doesn't mean he should be ranked over proven talent.

I think I was missing your point, or I got it, and it seemed that your point related to older backs on the whole. But I think we're in agreement upon talent over youth.

 

[Boston]

I think I was missing your point, or I got it, and it seemed that your point related to older backs on the whole. But I think we're in agreement upon talent over youth.

More that just because a RB is young doesn't mean he will be good (like you said).

 

[rockaction]

More that just because a RB is young doesn't mean he will be good.

Ah, okay. I agree with that, too. I was largely in agreement with you in that I think his rankings skew too much toward unproven youth. But I appreciate his lists and think he might be stumbling upon something at RB, though I'm not sure he's familiar with the studies DLF has done over the past year about point production and age at RB. 

 

[JohnnyU]

More that just because a RB is young doesn't mean he will be good.

I think that is a given and isn't debatable.  However, for dynasty leagues I can see someone preferring someone younger than Harris if they aren't going to compete for a few years.  For those teams trading down is a good idea.  If you're a contender don't worry about age and draft Harris.

 

[Boston]

I think that is a given and isn't debatable.  However, for dynasty leagues I can see someone preferring someone younger than Harris if they aren't going to compete for a few years.  For those teams trading down is a good idea.  If you're a contender don't worry about age and draft Harris.

Don't disagree...everyone has their way of doing things but when it comes to RBs I never plan on a long shelf-life...it is definitely the position on my roster that I change the most as I just never fully trust them and due to that I try to be as deep as possible with "startable" RBs...as long as I have that I feel I will be strong enough everywhere else to figure things out. 

 

[Boston]

Ah, okay. I agree with that, too. I was largely in agreement with you in that I think his rankings skew too much toward unproven youth. But I appreciate his lists and think he might be stumbling upon something at RB, though I'm not sure he's familiar with the studies DLF has done over the past year about point production and age at RB. 

Agreed, he does a great job and I fully expect him to have sound reasoning with why he ranks them this way.

 

[wgoldsph]

Can I get an explanation on Reagor?  I have him as almost undraftable, and would take almost everyone in tier 4 before him and most of tier 5.

At least can't we agree the next three years of Kenny Gollady (36) have to be better than him (25) especially with Goff vs Hurts at qb.

 

[JoeJoe88]

I find it interesting that Hopkins(who will be 29 in June) is seemingly immune to the age factor that you place such an importance on with these rankings. Diggs, for example, is two years younger and just had a better year. Ridley is three years younger and they just practically put up the same amount of fantasy points. Chuba Hubbard may never even be a starter in the league, and he’s already ahead of Henry and Jones, who just finished as RB2 and RB5? 

 

[MAC_32]

There's honestly too much emphasis on youth in Zyphros's rankings, but there should be when it comes to RBs. They tend to not be among the top ten in positional point scorers once they're past twenty-five, and much less so at twenty-seven or twenty-eight. Once you're there, you're looking at cliffs. So I don't blame him too much at RB, I guess, except for the twenty-four year-olds, like Montgomery, who was a RB6 or 7 overall last year.

For rankings purposes, the emphasis should be on youth. For team building purposes, nuance must be considered. Which is why I don't do dynasty rankings anymore.

 

[MAC_32]

Can I get an explanation on Reagor?  I have him as almost undraftable, and would take almost everyone in tier 4 before him and most of tier 5.

At least can't we agree the next three years of Kenny Gollady (36) have to be better than him (25) especially with Goff vs Hurts at qb.

He suffered an August injury that was going to limit his effectiveness all season. Then when playing through it he suffered an unrelated injury that knocked him out for 6 (?) weeks. When he returned the team was in turmoil and he only had about 3-4 weeks of reps to that point anyway.

I wouldn't read much into his rookie season.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I knew you’d have some fighting words ha. If it makes you feel better this is for PPR leagues so he does get dinged a bit. I’m worried we just saw his ceiling for the rest of his career, carrying half the load (not the pass catching one). 

If it's ppr how do you have Kamara at 14?

 

[kutta]

If it's ppr how do you have Kamara at 14?

I’ll guess it has to do with how poorly Kamara did without Brees this year. I don’t agree, but that may be it.

 

[barackdhouse]

I’ll guess it has to do with how poorly Kamara did without Brees this year. I don’t agree, but that may be it.

Brees was maybe the best I've ever seen at dumping off to RBs or hitting them on designed routes. I'd like to think that with a full offseason (not a given) the new #1 QB(s) would be working with Kamara and Payton on this skill quite a bit. But Brees always blew me away with how good he is at this skill and I just don't know how there can't be a drop off there. I don't know if that was Zyphros reasoning or not, just picking up off what you said. There is no such thing as buying low on Kamara right now anyway.

 

[menobrown]

 But Brees always blew me away with how good he is at this skill and I just don't know how there can't be a drop off there.

 My counter to that would be that Kamara played 4 full games last year with Teddy, and Kamara was dealing with some injury issues during this time, and he still caught 25 passes in those 4 games. It's not a huge sample size and Teddy is a dink and dunker but much like how those few games gave me a lot of confidence that Michael Thomas will be just fine without Brees I felt the same way about Kamara. The half he got with Jameis was pretty good too but while 4 games is a small sample size, a half is a bit of reach to draw much in the way of conclusions on but it was still encouraging.

Now, Taysom Hill, that's another matter as he'd be the worst throwing full time starting QB since Tebow(Lamar's next). Basically anyone but Taysom and I'm not concerned.

And regarding  Brees  while he did have nice timing on his short passes, did a great job of leading the receiver to put them in position to run after the catch. He basically looked like a point guard playing QB the way he distributed the ball. But I do think there could be something to be said about his lack of downfield passing threat not making life easy on Kamara with the way teams did not fear Brees being able to throw it over them. The timing of another QB likely won't be nearly as on point as Brees, but I think it's possible Kamara see's more space.

Just not Taysom.

 

[Zyphros]

Oh yay, question time. I love it

Zyphros where do you have Mooney and Samuel on your list? Surprised to see Harmon before either of them...unless I just missed them 

They're both in my next tier. You didn't miss them. I like them, they come across as low volume, dynamic guys. I don't know what type of workload they'll get and even if that'll be sustainable at all.

I like Harmon because I had him as a superior talent as a prospect, injury derailed it and nobody stepped up as the #2 this year. So as long as he holds off a draft pick, I see him as an under the radar dark horse WR4. 

Ballsy call on DeVonta Smith. 

No TEs?

DeVonta Smith is good, but avoiding that risk for multiple reasons. Age and Alabama as the main reasons. It's about avoiding a possible land mine, not about how good he actually was. Which was insanely good. 

I'll do TE's/QB's over the weekend.

Why the DND on soon to be 27 year old Tyreek? Character concerns?

Character, age, and his role looks to be changing. Overall the Chiefs offense is about to evolve or crumble I believe, that'll come with an actual alpha. So far Kelce has filled that role, Tyreek is the 1b to Kelce. If there's an actual alpha WR there, Hill takes a back seat. That's what I believe was missing during the Super Bowl. That team is going through a changing of the guard in a year or two. I doubt Tyreek survives it. 

 

[Zyphros]

Great job, appreciate it...why so much love for all rookie RBs...I totally get Najee, Etienne and Williams but putting Hill over Montgomery who will only be 24 in June?  Hubbard over Henry?  I get that Henry is not getting any younger but you are ranking a non-elite RB prospect over a 2,000 yard rusher...I would 100% rather have 2 more years of solid Henry production versus the hope Hubbard even starts...I understand the value of youth but youth can not out-weigh talent if your goal is to win.

For Hill > Montgomery specifically, since Monty is still young, it's more about what they are as prospects for me. Montgomery flashed this year, but I have Hill as a better prospect overall. He'll get a better opportunity to produce (depending landing spot), and sustain because of his talent. 

There's a lot of people dismissing Hubbard, I am not. That's what it comes down to. Henry has proved to be an outlier already so fading him isn't exactly smart of me. I'll fully admit that. And it's not exactly like Hubbard is this beast of a pass catcher either so I can't even use that an excuse. The simple answer is just young legs, and that I'm not fading Hubbard like the masses seem to be after this year.

Another question from below was why he's ahead of Aaron Jones, and it's because of Jones' uncertainty of landing spot, and 5 years younger. Aaron Jones is older than you think. And that cliff of RB's, especially smaller ones, drops off in a hurry. I like Hubbard, I don't know how else to say it ha. The landscape for RB changes so so quickly that I like staying ahead of it, even if it means missing out on a few productive backs like Henry or Aaron Jones.

Every time I post these, someone mentions the youth favoritism or whatever you want to call it. I get it. This is startup based, and I'd rather keep my team young, hopeful and future based. The cost of Henry is likely higher, so it's more a way that I can avoid taking him, and if I wanted to, trade down to grab Hubbard later and gain value. Henry is amazing for sure, but I'm playing the long game with these ranks, not the immediate production. 

Can I get an explanation on Reagor?  I have him as almost undraftable, and would take almost everyone in tier 4 before him and most of tier 5.

At least can't we agree the next three years of Kenny Gollady (36) have to be better than him (25) especially with Goff vs Hurts at qb.

Highly disagree. Reagor started flashing during the end of the season, he was a top talent profile last year, and just got off to a late start on what was an awful team. He's another that I'm banking on that talent that I saw as a prospect over these unsure vets. Golladay carries more name value than actual fantasy value. Only 1 top20 WR year in 3 years. Even this year his PPG was barely top30. We've seen Golladay's best days. 

I find it interesting that Hopkins(who will be 29 in June) is seemingly immune to the age factor that you place such an importance on with these rankings. Diggs, for example, is two years younger and just had a better year. Ridley is three years younger and they just practically put up the same amount of fantasy points. Chuba Hubbard may never even be a starter in the league, and he’s already ahead of Henry and Jones, who just finished as RB2 and RB5? 

The main reason is volume. Nuk and Davante both get insane volume to prop themselves up, along with being the best 2 WR's in the league. I have 0 doubt that will continue and keep elevating their talent because of it. I got 3 1sts for Hopkins before the season, totally happy with the deal, and I don't really see a big dip in production anytime soon. But it's a bit different for WR's than it is for RB's. RB's can completely fall off a cliff and become irrelevant in a year. Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Freeman, David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell. All who were top10 dynasty RB's at one point basically nose dived after their peaks. Nuk and Davante both won't become irrelevant unless they retire. 

 

[Zyphros]

If it's ppr how do you have Kamara at 14?

Older, and doesn't have a QB to checkdown to him. Either a runner in Hill, or a down the field passer in Winston. He's not "old" but he does have the odds against him because of the young talent from 2020 that vaulted up. A little pushed down the ranks I'll admit. 

I'm of the belief that players are generally productive when the scheme and the QB fit together. One of the reasons the TE for Phillip Rivers is so coveted. The checkdown/underneath for Brady. The TE for Lamar. The checkdown for Alex Smith. Some players just have their styles and who they want the scheme built around. I'd bet anything that all these QB's want their OC to know that they need that outlet as either the 1st read or a simple one as a security blanket. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I find it interesting that Hopkins(who will be 29 in June) is seemingly immune to the age factor that you place such an importance on with these rankings. Diggs, for example, is two years younger and just had a better year. Ridley is three years younger and they just practically put up the same amount of fantasy points. Chuba Hubbard may never even be a starter in the league, and he’s already ahead of Henry and Jones, who just finished as RB2 and RB5? 

To be fair you are rounding up here.  He's 1.4 years older than Diggs and 2.5 older than Ridley.

 

[JoeJoe88]

To be fair you are rounding up here.  He's 1.4 years older than Diggs and 2.5 older than Ridley.

Okay lol. Point remains.