Zyphros' Rankings (Updated 2/11) (1 Viewer)

[Apple Juice]

Just want to say there's good discussion going on in here. Rational points on both sides.

 

[Zyphros]

A narrow window is better than no window, which is what you will get if you miss on too many "next big thing" rookies.

Anyone who knows me from way back must think it's crazy to see me as the guy arguing against rookie fever, but I'm just saying your rankings/commentary don't seem to lend ample weight to the downside of unknown quantities. You are fixated on the upside/longevity of youth, but part of a player's overall value equation is the likelihood of him becoming a reliable contributor. That's generally a lot lower with rookies than it is with guys who have already done it.

If Chubb is firmly established as a RB8-RB15 type and we buy your argument that the rookies have more upside (questionable, but let's just go with it) that doesn't automatically mean they're worth more. Historically, a lot of these guys who have potential on paper will become Felix Jones/Donald Brown/Sony Michel in the NFL and never really yield anything of value for your FF teams. Unless you're 100% certain that a rookie is an exception, it's probably best to factor that bust probability into your overall outlook of what he's worth. I'm not sure I see that here or in the WR rankings with stuff like Reagor > Beckham and Higgins > Diggs.

Feels like someone looked at the RISK x UPSIDE = VALUE equation and forgot about the risk.

I'm not baking in the bust potential as much because all these RB's are viewed very highly.  Maybe not elite category but they're all B+ or A- prospects.  You mention other RB's like Sankey or Montgomery who were not on that level themselves and they've still carried value into their 2nd years after ho-hum 1st years.  Don't really remember if Sankey did or not since I never owned him. 

The bust risk is if they stay on your roster and you don't give them up when they still have value.  But these rookies RB will retain ~70% (random number) of their value even if they don't see the field very much.  Henderson did and he was a late 1st rookie pick, brief window 3 months ago before the Akers pick and you could have sold him for a 1st again.  They might be bad RB's sure, but after year 1 their value doesn't drastically go down.  There's an exit price if you spot it.  

 

[wgoldsph]

If pass catching is valued so highly how can Taylor be ranked above CEH?

 

[Zyphros]

If pass catching is valued so highly how can Taylor be ranked above CEH?

Because he's a better player?  CEH doesn't have the talent profile that Taylor does, nor does he project as a full time player.  He's boosted because of coach/team situation, which does matter, but he'll need to prove efficient with his touches to gain more of a role.  Similar to other rookie RB's who are good pass catchers, the role is there for pass work, but can he really provide more?  The others project as guys who can command more but CEH is in the better offense.  Long term I like Akers/Swift more than CEH, but year 1 (again if they hit), you can flip him for Swift+ or Akers+.  I don't particularly like the player but I can't deny he's a top2 rookie.  Probably should have him lower than Kamara/Cook, but the contract worries me with them.  

 

[wgoldsph]

Because he's a better player?  CEH doesn't have the talent profile that Taylor does, nor does he project as a full time player.  He's boosted because of coach/team situation, which does matter, but he'll need to prove efficient with his touches to gain more of a role.  Similar to other rookie RB's who are good pass catchers, the role is there for pass work, but can he really provide more?  The others project as guys who can command more but CEH is in the better offense.  Long term I like Akers/Swift more than CEH, but year 1 (again if they hit), you can flip him for Swift+ or Akers+.  I don't particularly like the player but I can't deny he's a top2 rookie.  Probably should have him lower than Kamara/Cook, but the contract worries me with them.  

You're telling me that Hynes is less of a threat than d Williams is when one is going to get all the 3rd down and receiving work while the other made his team pick up an 80 year old Mccoy?  I don't understand this narrative.

Taylor is a better player five years ago, not today.  Swift may be the best of the three but considering how terrible det has been for years now I'm not sure a coaching change (again) is going to change that.  As for Akers, I know he was stuck in a terrible situation in college but he never /overcame/ the situation, making me question if he's not more than a workout warrior.

 

[wgoldsph]

You’re being a little hypocritical here, not to mention making some huge assumptions

You're right, Hynes is probably much less of a threat than I'm making him out to be.

 

[wgoldsph]

You say Hines, a 4th round RB, will get ALL of the 3rd down work (unlikely, as I would bet my house he was not in on all 3rd down snaps in 2019), and ALL receiving work (63% of RBs receiving last year). I could easily say that Hines and Mack did so well last year that Indy traded up to take a RB who had one of the best college seasons/careers ever. JT had the largest target per route run last year of rookie RBs, and got the highest college dominator percentage of receiving production among all rookie RBs as well (14% to CEHs 7). 80% catch percentage to boot. 

CEH has some impressive rushing numbers to debate against Williams being a big threat. Likewise, JT was, relatively speaking, one of (if not the) best receiving back in this rookie class. The narrative that he’s a 2 down back is just wrong

Since JT is the best rusher, and one of (if not the) best receiver in this draft class, I think that opens up a lot more total opportunities for him than people think. 
 

A lot of the rankings between these guys comes down to how much total volume you think they will get. It’s very possible CEH sees workhorse volume at some point this year and beyond. I wouldn’t be surprised there. Just as I wouldn’t be surprised that JT sees more targets than people assume. Overall I think JT is a better RB, athlete, complete package. The only thing causing me to come back to CEH is the offense he is in... but situations change quickly, and right now I’m sitting on going with talent over situation. Another 2 months until I have to make my pick though 

I already admitted that I had overblown Hynes contributions to the offense. No need to go further until that.

I was never a fan of Williams going back to the end of the '18 season.  Everything about his end of the year break out seemed like luck and as the 19 season wore on it showed.  That being said, he went into the season being drafted as a high rb2 despite a career of backing up a list of future nobodies and Drake (who's put together a number of multiple string games, but never a season) for Miami on the strength of the kc offense.  He's less than a JAG in my book.

KC's offense should be money as long as patty mayonnaise is able to play at 90% of his current level.  Having a generational qb is a boon for any offense no matter who comes and goes around him.  Indy doesn't have that yet, which is not saying they don't have a solid system in place with one of the best olines in the league and a defense that should keep the game on the ground late.  But if I'm making a bet as to who scores the most in the next five years I go kc every time

 

[King of the Jungle]

You say Hines, a 4th round RB, will get ALL of the 3rd down work (unlikely, as I would bet my house he was not in on all 3rd down snaps in 2019), and ALL receiving work (63% of RBs receiving last year). I could easily say that Hines and Mack did so well last year that Indy traded up to take a RB who had one of the best college seasons/careers ever. JT had the largest target per route run last year of rookie RBs, and got the highest college dominator percentage of receiving production among all rookie RBs as well (14% to CEHs 7). 80% catch percentage to boot. 

CEH has some impressive rushing numbers to debate against Williams being a big threat. Likewise, JT was, relatively speaking, one of (if not the) best receiving back in this rookie class. The narrative that he’s a 2 down back is just wrong

Since JT is the best rusher, and one of (if not the) best receiver in this draft class, I think that opens up a lot more total opportunities for him than people think. 
 

A lot of the rankings between these guys comes down to how much total volume you think they will get. It’s very possible CEH sees workhorse volume at some point this year and beyond. I wouldn’t be surprised there. Just as I wouldn’t be surprised that JT sees more targets than people assume. Overall I think JT is a better RB, athlete, complete package. The only thing causing me to come back to CEH is the offense he is in... but situations change quickly, and right now I’m sitting on going with talent over situation. Another 2 months until I have to make my pick though 

I agree with you that JT is the best rusher in the class. Although you seemed to have formed a harder stance after initially being concerned about what Mike Clay wrote in regards his flaws. Are you stating that JT is potentially the best pass catcher due to the above bolded stats? 

 

[King of the Jungle]

I honestly don’t know enough about how every single other back in this class is as a receiver to plant that flag. There are a lot of good pass catching backs in this class. I think a lot of his statistics can certainly make a case for him to be in the conversation. The bigger point I am making is that the narrative that he can’t catch or UW didn’t throw to him is easy to prove wrong with the bolded statistics; they used him a lot and tried to get him the ball anyway they could. 

You reference that I’ve come a long way in my opinion, and I certainly have. I can explain that process here or privately if you’d like

I am just curious as I have struggled with the top of this class. Was it that you became more analytically impressed with JT or soured on CEH?

 

[az_prof]

I think we should see a full season with Tannehill as the starter before we go declaring Henry just had his career year at age 25. I believe he was RB2 on the season once Tanny took over. I think it’s much more likely that Henry repeats as the rushing champion than it is Fournette catches anything close to 80 balls again, which was a complete anomaly. I doubt there’s too many Henry owners who are out there offering him for the 1.06 or 1.07 to draft Swift or Akers, but maybe I’m wrong. 

I'm in a PPR dynasty and I would not have traded Henry for anything less than the 1.02.  I"m optimistic that he repeats his performance from 2019 because the team is built around him, the offensive line is improved, he is still young, and 2019 was the first year he was truly featured. It is true that he doesn't catch a ton of passes so discounting him some in PPR makes sense but I don't see how he can fall out of the top 10. Clearly CMcC, Saquon, Zeke, Cook, Kamara are over him and probably Jacobs and Taylor and CEH, but hard to put many of the others above what he brings to the table right now.  He was RB5 in my 1 pt PPR last year and I see no reason to expect he won't be close to that this year.

 

[az_prof]

I think when we are talking about the best receiver in the class, Swift needs to be at the top of the discussion. I am not very familiar with Akers. so for me it’s a discussion of JT vs Swift. CEH is the best route runner, so it depends if you factor that in.

With regards to my process - it’s evolved in itself over the last year and a half. My thoughts on JT were a year ago I traded for as many projected 2020 high 1sts as I could to get JT. After 2019 I had some questions. I posed a lot of those questions and focused on the negatives prior to the draft. After doing further research, the combine, gathering opinions I determined I liked JT more than Swift, and in fact had moved Swift behind Dobbins. I was warming up to CEH and had him as my RB4. I tried to keep my thoughts on JT quiet for my early drafts as I had 1.02 in one, and avoided a lot of discussion on any of the RBs. Now that my early drafts are done, and the next draft I have 1.01, I am not hiding my opinion as much. 
 

TLDR: Impressed with JT rather than souring on CEH

I am very high on JT and would take him #1 overall in rookie drafts, above CEH. I just think he has the ability to be a top 1 fantasy back and a guy who has multiple top 10 seasons.  He will catch better than people think; WI just doesn't pass much. 

 

[JoeJoe88]

I'm in a PPR dynasty and I would not have traded Henry for anything less than the 1.02.  I"m optimistic that he repeats his performance from 2019 because the team is built around him, the offensive line is improved, he is still young, and 2019 was the first year he was truly featured. It is true that he doesn't catch a ton of passes so discounting him some in PPR makes sense but I don't see how he can fall out of the top 10. Clearly CMcC, Saquon, Zeke, Cook, Kamara are over him and probably Jacobs and Taylor and CEH, but hard to put many of the others above what he brings to the table right now.  He was RB5 in my 1 pt PPR last year and I see no reason to expect he won't be close to that this year.

I’m with you. And if I’m any bit of a team that believes I can complete for a championship in the next two years, I may not would even move him for the 1.02. 

 

[Zyphros]

@wgoldsph Hines isn't a threat to me.  To simply answer your question is that yes I see Damien Williams as more of a threat than Hines.  For example if CEH isn't any good at all, can't get on the field and sucks, Damien is the lead guy.  If Taylor sucks Mack is still the lead guy, not Hines.  

If I look at them side by side from my evaluations, Taylor is 2x the prospect that CEH is in pure talent.  Landed in arguably just as good a situation as CEH and takes over as the dominant RB role, IF he's good.  CEH doesn't do that.  He fills a pass catching role in a high powered offense with the possibility of more.  The touches are more built in to Taylor than they are CEH's.  Even though catching passes is worth more.  That's why I think he's clearly the #2 rookie, but the security of Taylor edges him out for initial value.  I do think Taylor eventually falls off like I mentioned earlier in this thread and he'll eventually be beaten out by pass catching RB's for value, but as of now, going into the league and a dominant college profile, he's much safer.  

 

[Johnny B. Goode]

@wgoldsph Hines isn't a threat to me.  To simply answer your question is that yes I see Damien Williams as more of a threat than Hines.  For example if CEH isn't any good at all, can't get on the field and sucks, Damien is the lead guy.  If Taylor sucks Mack is still the lead guy, not Hines.  

If I look at them side by side from my evaluations, Taylor is 2x the prospect that CEH is in pure talent.  Landed in arguably just as good a situation as CEH and takes over as the dominant RB role, IF he's good.  CEH doesn't do that.  He fills a pass catching role in a high powered offense with the possibility of more.  The touches are more built in to Taylor than they are CEH's.  Even though catching passes is worth more.  That's why I think he's clearly the #2 rookie, but the security of Taylor edges him out for initial value.  I do think Taylor eventually falls off like I mentioned earlier in this thread and he'll eventually be beaten out by pass catching RB's for value, but as of now, going into the league and a dominant college profile, he's much safer.  

When we draft rookies we are drafting profiles. Taylor has an elite profile. CEH does not. It’s that simple to me

 

[King of the Jungle]

@wgoldsph Hines isn't a threat to me.  To simply answer your question is that yes I see Damien Williams as more of a threat than Hines.  For example if CEH isn't any good at all, can't get on the field and sucks, Damien is the lead guy.  If Taylor sucks Mack is still the lead guy, not Hines.  

If I look at them side by side from my evaluations, Taylor is 2x the prospect that CEH is in pure talent.  Landed in arguably just as good a situation as CEH and takes over as the dominant RB role, IF he's good.  CEH doesn't do that.  He fills a pass catching role in a high powered offense with the possibility of more.  The touches are more built in to Taylor than they are CEH's.  Even though catching passes is worth more.  That's why I think he's clearly the #2 rookie, but the security of Taylor edges him out for initial value.  I do think Taylor eventually falls off like I mentioned earlier in this thread and he'll eventually be beaten out by pass catching RB's for value, but as of now, going into the league and a dominant college profile, he's much safer.  

Taylor is 2x the prospect? I am not sure how that is equated. I like Taylor and think he has a chance to be the best rookie in this class. But what is driving me a little nutty is everyone disregarding what CEH has done on the ground. He...imo my dumb@$$ opinion has the best vision in this class. His size also allows him to hide behind defenders at the line of scrimmage and create his own opportunities with his elite lateral movement. Now he may not have the underwear straight line speed that Taylor does and possess the plus 220 lbs that we like in backs, but he is good at finding space and making the most of runs with his agility and good angular movement. 
 

This topic has been beaten to death but CEH is not a bad runner of the football (not just a pass catcher), in fact I think is a top tier interior gap runner with his vision and lateral movement. Which suites perfectly with what the Chiefs like to do.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Taylor is 2x the prospect? I am not sure how that is equated. I like Taylor and think he has a chance to be the best rookie in this class. But what is driving me a little nutty is everyone disregarding what CEH has done on the ground. He...imo my dumb@$$ opinion has the best vision in this class. His size also allows him to hide behind defenders at the line of scrimmage and create his own opportunities with his elite lateral movement. Now he may not have the underwear straight line speed that Taylor does and possess the plus 220 lbs that we like in backs, but he is good at finding space and making the most of runs with his agility and good angular movement. 
 

This topic has been beaten to death but CEH is not a bad runner of the football (not just a pass catcher), in fact I think is a top tier interior gap runner with his vision and lateral movement. Which suites perfectly with what the Chiefs like to do.

CEH also has those thunder-thigs where guys just bounce off his lower body, allowing him to break tackles without losing momentum and turn in long runs despite not having elite speed.

I've said on this forum many times that is the #1 trait I look for in a RB and ironically the last guy I went to bat this hard for over it was Kareem Hunt.

 

[rockaction]

CEH also has those thunder-thigs where guys just bounce off his lower body, allowing him to break tackles without losing momentum and turn in long runs despite not having elite speed.

I've said on this forum many times that is the #1 trait I look for in a RB and ironically the last guy I went to bat this hard for over it was Kareem Hunt.

Yeah, every time I think about his speed and then watch him I come away thinking that it's tough to tackle a fire hydrant. That's a compliment, not a knock.

 

[King of the Jungle]

CEH also has those thunder-thigs where guys just bounce off his lower body, allowing him to break tackles without losing momentum and turn in long runs despite not having elite speed.

I've said on this forum many times that is the #1 trait I look for in a RB and ironically the last guy I went to bat this hard for over it was Kareem Hunt.

Which again ironically Hunt had a slower 40.

 

[Zyphros]

Taylor is 2x the prospect? I am not sure how that is equated. I like Taylor and think he has a chance to be the best rookie in this class. But what is driving me a little nutty is everyone disregarding what CEH has done on the ground. He...imo my dumb@$$ opinion has the best vision in this class. His size also allows him to hide behind defenders at the line of scrimmage and create his own opportunities with his elite lateral movement. Now he may not have the underwear straight line speed that Taylor does and possess the plus 220 lbs that we like in backs, but he is good at finding space and making the most of runs with his agility and good angular movement. 
 

This topic has been beaten to death but CEH is not a bad runner of the football (not just a pass catcher), in fact I think is a top tier interior gap runner with his vision and lateral movement. Which suites perfectly with what the Chiefs like to do.

Taylor was a Tier2 prospect for me, CEH was Tier4.  That's where it's coming from, but everything everyone says is "in my opinion" anyways so I felt it was unnecessary to provide that.  

Not even to go into situation I disagree completely about "elite lateral movement" but that topic has been discussed so much I'd rather not continue.  We just differ on our view on CEH's overall talent which is fine.  I don't think he'll last as a top dynasty asset, but year 1 & 2 might be outstanding.  

 

[King of the Jungle]

Taylor was a Tier2 prospect for me, CEH was Tier4.  That's where it's coming from, but everything everyone says is "in my opinion" anyways so I felt it was unnecessary to provide that.  

Not even to go into situation I disagree completely about "elite lateral movement" but that topic has been discussed so much I'd rather not continue.  We just differ on our view on CEH's overall talent which is fine.  I don't think he'll last as a top dynasty asset, but year 1 & 2 might be outstanding.  

Thanks for the input, you may just be right. I think at the heart of it I just don’t like any of these guys at the 1.01 level and so I keep searching to try to convince myself of something that may not necessarily be there. Hope the heck I can find a trade partner to move down.

 

[rockaction]

Thanks for the input, you may just be right. I think at the heart of it I just don’t like any of these guys at the 1.01 level and so I keep searching to try to convince myself of something that may not necessarily be there. Hope the heck I can find a trade partner to move down.

That's easier thought of than done. You'd hope for a guy with multiple first-rounders that wants to move up desperately, but the likelihood of that is somewhat small, unless it's like so many of the leagues people around here are in where they've got eight picks through the first 1.12.

When's your draft?

 

[King of the Jungle]

That's easier thought of than done. You'd hope for a guy with multiple first-rounders that wants to move up desperately, but the likelihood of that is somewhat small, unless it's like so many of the leagues people around here are in where they've got eight picks through the first 1.12.

When's your draft?

We are cutting down right now so it could be this week. I am at the point if I am stuck at one I really want to take Lamb. My league is weird about trading and already have explored a few options without success. Currently I have the 1, 8, 15, and 23. None are my original picks as I won it last year. Worst case scenario I could probably swap the 1 for the 4, and the 23 for the 16. Not great value but I like the early to middle second round. I also could potentially offer swapping the 1 for the 4 and then me getting the option to swap first rounders next year. My team is stacked and this strategy has actually netted me the 1.01 in the past. 

 

[rockaction]

We are cutting down right now so it could be this week. I am at the point if I am stuck at one I really want to take Lamb. My league is weird about trading and already have explored a few options without success. Currently I have the 1, 8, 15, and 23. None are my original picks as I won it last year. Worst case scenario I could probably swap the 1 for the 4, and the 23 for the 16. Not great value but I like the early to middle second round. I also could potentially offer swapping the 1 for the 4 and then me getting the option to swap first rounders next year. My team is stacked and this strategy has actually netted me the 1.01 in the past. 

I see. I don't have any advice for you, but good luck. If you want Lamb and that's who you know you're going to pick anyway, then it costs you nothing to trade down to four and you move up seven from twenty-three. So you win -- unless somebody grabs him before you. He went at four in our league. And there's a real possibility someone just likes him and grabs him. Hankmoody actually had something really good to say about that in a discussion I had with him. He talked about just taking the player you want and a little bit of value be damned -- if it's a choice between having and not having, how much would it matter to you? One can get too cute at times. So maybe something to think about. 

 

[King of the Jungle]

I see. I don't have any advice for you, but good luck. If you want Lamb and that's who you know you're going to pick anyway, then it costs you nothing to trade down to four and you move up seven from twenty-three. So you win -- unless somebody grabs him before you. He went at four in our league. And there's a real possibility someone just likes him and grabs him. Hankmoody actually had something really good to say about that in a discussion I had with him. He talked about just taking the player you want and a little bit of value be damned -- if it's a choice between having and not having, how much would it matter to you? One can get too cute at times. So maybe something to think about. 

Absolutely, and I am not terribly concerned about value. I have built a great team and having the 1.01 is just a bonus at this point. Thanks for the input.

 

[az_prof]

We are cutting down right now so it could be this week. I am at the point if I am stuck at one I really want to take Lamb. My league is weird about trading and already have explored a few options without success. Currently I have the 1, 8, 15, and 23. None are my original picks as I won it last year. Worst case scenario I could probably swap the 1 for the 4, and the 23 for the 16. Not great value but I like the early to middle second round. I also could potentially offer swapping the 1 for the 4 and then me getting the option to swap first rounders next year. My team is stacked and this strategy has actually netted me the 1.01 in the past. 

You won your league and still ended up with two first round picks including the 1!?  You need to be giving us advice!  Well done.

 

[King of the Jungle]

You won your league and still ended up with two first round picks including the 1!?  You need to be giving us advice!  Well done.

Thanks, but a lot of luck. I do a lot of option trades (Where I have the option to swap first rounders for a future year) with poor teams and it has worked out well. This was one was a trade I made last year and I just lucked out. Well sort of....outside of the countless hours I debated who to pick

 

[Zyphros]

QB's

Tier 1 - (1) Patrick Mahomes, (2) Kyler Murray, (3) Lamar Jackson

Tier 2 - (4) Dak Prescott, (5) Deshaun Watson, (6) Joe Burrow, (7) Russell Wilson, (8) Baker Mayfield

Tier 3 - (9) Josh Allen, (10) Tua Tagovailoa, (11) Daniel Jones, (12) Matt Ryan, (13) Jared Goff, (14) Carson Wentz

Tier 4 - (15) Aaron Rodgers, (16) Matthew Stafford, (17) Kirk Cousins, (18) Gardner Minshew

Tier 5 - (19) Drew Brees DND, (20) Jimmy Garoppolo, (21) Sam Darnold, (22) Justin Herbert, (23) Drew Lock, (24) Derek Carr

Tier 6 - (25) Jalen Hurts, (26) Jarrett Stidham, (27) Teddy Bridgewater

Tier 7 - (28) Ryan Tannehill, (29) Dwayne Haskins, (30) Philip Rivers DND, (31) PJ Williams (yes the XFL QB), (32) Alex Smith

Tier 8 - (33) Jordan Love, (34) Nick Foles, (35) Cam Newton, (36) Jameis Winston, (37) Josh Rosen, (38) Ben Roethlisberger, (39) Tyrod Taylor

Tier 9 - (40) Chad Kelley, (41) Tom Brady, (42) Andrew Luck, (43) Mitchell Trubisky, (44) Jacoby Brissett

Probably should be a tier break after QB5, eventually couldn't do it.  Dak's contract is starting to make me nervous, Watson has no Hopkins anymore, Burrow the rookie, Wilson with Pete screwing him over, Baker a little unproven.  I imagine there's some controversy with at least one player in Tier2 those are the simple versions, but I see more solid floors long term than the next tier.  

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Thanks, but a lot of luck. I do a lot of option trades (Where I have the option to swap first rounders for a future year) with poor teams and it has worked out well. This was one was a trade I made last year and I just lucked out. Well sort of....outside of the countless hours I debated who to pick

So when you do this the other owner is locked from trading their first, because they have to hold it in case it's higher and you utilize the option to swap? Can't ever imagine boxing myself in like that, wow. That's why my leagues don't do conditional options in trades, as it would require the other owner being forced to hold whatever picks were in limbo.

 

[Milkman]

QB's

Tier 1 - (1) Patrick Mahomes, (2) Kyler Murray, (3) Lamar Jackson

Tier 2 - (4) Dak Prescott, (5) Deshaun Watson, (6) Joe Burrow, (7) Russell Wilson, (8) Baker Mayfield

Tier 3 - (9) Josh Allen, (10) Tua Tagovailoa, (11) Daniel Jones, (12) Matt Ryan, (13) Jared Goff, (14) Carson Wentz

Tier 4 - (15) Aaron Rodgers, (16) Matthew Stafford, (17) Kirk Cousins, (18) Gardner Minshew

Tier 5 - (19) Drew Brees DND, (20) Jimmy Garoppolo, (21) Sam Darnold, (22) Justin Herbert, (23) Drew Lock, (24) Derek Carr

Tier 6 - (25) Jalen Hurts, (26) Jarrett Stidham, (27) Teddy Bridgewater

Tier 7 - (28) Ryan Tannehill, (29) Dwayne Haskins, (30) Philip Rivers DND, (31) PJ Williams (yes the XFL QB), (32) Alex Smith

Tier 8 - (33) Jordan Love, (34) Nick Foles, (35) Cam Newton, (36) Jameis Winston, (37) Josh Rosen, (38) Ben Roethlisberger, (39) Tyrod Taylor

Tier 9 - (40) Chad Kelley, (41) Tom Brady, (42) Andrew Luck, (43) Mitchell Trubisky, (44) Jacoby Brissett

Probably should be a tier break after QB5, eventually couldn't do it.  Dak's contract is starting to make me nervous, Watson has no Hopkins anymore, Burrow the rookie, Wilson with Pete screwing him over, Baker a little unproven.  I imagine there's some controversy with at least one player in Tier2 those are the simple versions, but I see more solid floors long term than the next tier.  

I like these rankings. 

 

[King of the Jungle]

So when you do this the other owner is locked from trading their first, because they have to hold it in case it's higher and you utilize the option to swap? Can't ever imagine boxing myself in like that, wow. That's why my leagues don't do conditional options in trades, as it would require the other owner being forced to hold whatever picks were in limbo.

That is exactly it. We have had the same guys in the league forever (20 years, three owner changes) and there is not a ton of picks traded outside of myself. It has worked out real well for me but I would not agree to it myself (if offered to me), so I understand your feeling on it.

 

[Milkman]

I'd probably put Mahomes in his own tier. 

 

[Zyphros]

I'd probably put Mahomes in his own tier. 

Actual value from his owner, probably.  I don't see much difference between him and Kyler/Lamar though.  I have 0 shares of Mahomes, probably never will now that he's won a Super Bowl.  His name value is/will be higher purely because of that when fantasy points will likely be similar.  Fade the name.  If Lamar Jackson won the Super Bowl instead, you'd say the same thing.  

 

[Vandelay]

Actual value from his owner, probably.  I don't see much difference between him and Kyler/Lamar though.  I have 0 shares of Mahomes, probably never will now that he's won a Super Bowl.  His name value is/will be higher purely because of that when fantasy points will likely be similar.  Fade the name.  If Lamar Jackson won the Super Bowl instead, you'd say the same thing.  

I'm a Kyler fan for sure and can even got onboard with a 3rd overall ranking, but tiering him with those two guys is a big reach.  He's yet to actually perform anywhere close to either of their levels.

Personally I think Mahomes is his own tier simply because I have less questions about him having a lengthy career.  Hes the face of the league and its hard to imagine him not being one of the very best QBs in the league for the next 10 years.  Thats not to say every season will be phenomenal statistically, but he's as safe a bet as it gets.

Jackson is more...gimmicky for lack of a better word.  I dont mean to take anything away from him, he was incredible last year and if he keeps growing as a passer he'll be a nightmare to defend.  Running the ball 150 times a year though is worrisome.  He protects himself well as a runner and is much better built for it than say, RG3, but its still added risk and hes not the level of passer or defense dissector yet that Mahomes is.

Kyler has a lot of work to do to get into this club.  I definitely think hes capable and it could happen as soon as this year, but he still has to do it.

 

[IHEARTFF]

I agree with vandelay's points.

 

[3 hour lunch]

I like these rankings. 

I know Brady is old as dirt, but with those weapons and his desire to play a couple more years, seems about 10 spots too low to me? 

 

[wgoldsph]

(2) Kyler Murray, (3) Lamar Jackson (5) Deshaun Watson(6)Joe Burrow(10) Tua Tagovailoa, (11) Daniel Jones(13) Jared Goff(41) Tom Brady

Murray - might be be worth this spot?  Maybe.  We still need a season or two of growth to grant it to him though.  He didn't light the league on fire year one.  A number of tier 2 guys have a much safer floor.

Lamar - career longevity is my problem with him.  If I'm drafting for the next three seasons I put him and Malholmes in tier one.  What happens to him if he gets hurt or cuts his running down significantly though?

Watson - losing nuk really hurts him in my book.  With a wr room of ir warriors he's going to struggle to find someone who can get open and his tendency to run around until he's sacked while waiting for a play to develop is going to get him hurt.  Put him on a team that isn't actively trying to screw him over and he goes in tier one as well.

Burrow - literally hasn't thrown a pass yet and is already in tier 2?

Tua - see Burrow and throw in injury risk

Daniel Jones - no guarantee he's the long term starter for the giants considering his Jamis Winston level turn overs.

Goff - just... What?  His greatest attribute is playing from a clean pocket, which the rams won't be able to provide him with until their cap clears up and they finally get some draft picks.  By then they might be able to move on from his cap hit.

Brady - we all agree he's got two years tops left.  Those two years should be sub par. Maybe awful.  But somehow those subpar/awful two years are two whole tiers lower than Alex Smith and PJ Williams. This is just a hater rank.

 

[wgoldsph]

One more

Taysom Hill (nr) - qb/te/st/Superflex - the man, the myth, the legend.  Even if he never throws another nfl pass you can still get a few points out of him when everyone's on bye week.  Better floor/upside than Kelley or Luck. Also, every NFL team wants one.

 

[Zyphros]

One more

Taysom Hill (nr) - qb/te/st/Superflex - the man, the myth, the legend.  Even if he never throws another nfl pass you can still get a few points out of him when everyone's on bye week.  Better floor/upside than Kelley or Luck. Also, every NFL team wants one.

No

As for all the points about Mahomes in his own tier and Kyler might not deserving of that yet.  Kyler was QB6 in FFPC leagues, 3 spots ahead of Mahomes.  Yes Mahomes missed a couple games, and was more efficient overall as a passer, but with the weapons Kyler now has, there's no reason not to be on board.  Kyler was also 2nd among QB's in rush yards last year.  I hope he takes another step forward because the dude is just fun to watch.  I think he belongs.  

I don't particularly like anyone in Tier3 or later very much but I'd happily roll with the Tier4 group in re-draft over the Tier3 group.  

 

[Vandelay]

No

As for all the points about Mahomes in his own tier and Kyler might not deserving of that yet.  Kyler was QB6 in FFPC leagues, 3 spots ahead of Mahomes.  Yes Mahomes missed a couple games, and was more efficient overall as a passer, but with the weapons Kyler now has, there's no reason not to be on board.  Kyler was also 2nd among QB's in rush yards last year.  I hope he takes another step forward because the dude is just fun to watch.  I think he belongs.  

I don't particularly like anyone in Tier3 or later very much but I'd happily roll with the Tier4 group in re-draft over the Tier3 group.  

Mahomes scored 484 points in 2018.  Lamar had 456 points last year.  Thats nearly 150 and 120 points better than Kyler's 338 last year.

You can bet on him reaching a new level, but right now Mahomes and Jackson are waiting for him at the basecamp on the plateau he's trying climb to.

 

[Riffraff]

 (31) PJ Williams (yes the XFL QB)

PJ Walker is pretty good too.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Think I'd have Bridgewater a good amount higher, given the offense he's in, the weapons he's got, and how bad his defense will be.

 

[Zyphros]

Tons of changes with rookie's beginning to breakout so figured I'd update some of my dynasty rankings. Everyone is making choices on who to cut, trade, keep from your compete/rebuild/middle of the road team so figured I'd update.

WR's first because that's where most of the breakouts are happening

Tier 1 - (1) Tyreek Hill, (2) CeeDee Lamb, (3) Davante Adams, (4) DeAndre Hopkins

**Basically I look at this tier as #1's with high floors and tied to QB's long term, either now or a year away. I just can't put CeeDee at #1. I want to though. He looks elite, is the youngest of the bunch and tied to Prescott for a long time (if Prescott gets his contract). He'll be undervalued for a few weeks still. I imagine because people are going to say "Amari" or "Gallup" are in the way. His value isn't WR2 in dynasty yet, but it'll keep climbing, nowhere to go but up. 

Tier 2 - (5) Chris Godwin, (6) DK Metcalf, (7) Calvin Ridley, (8) AJ Brown, (9) DJ Moore, (10) Michael Thomas, (11) Courtland Sutton, (12) JuJu Smith-Schuster, (13) Amari Cooper, (14) Tyler Lockett, (15) Kenny Golladay, (16) Mike Evans, (17) Stefon Diggs, (18) Terry McLaurin (19) Allen Robinson

**The tier of #1's on their offense but could be a bit volatile here and there. I have some questions about long term QB's or if volume will be there for some of these.

Tier 3 - (20) Jalen Reagor, (21) Tee Higgins, (22) DJ Chark, (23) Deebo Samuel, (24) Diontae Johnson, (25) Devante Parker, (26) Michael Gallup, (27) Preston Williams, (28) Justin Jefferson, (29) Gabriel Davis, (30) Bryan Edwards, (31) Laviska Shenault 

**All the guys in Tier3 could be #1's that are young and hopeful. I could see any of these guys vaulting up to top10 if the season goes in their favor. 

Tier 4 - (32) Cooper Kupp, (33) Denzel Mims, (34) Jerry Jeudy, (35) Robert Woods DND, (36) Adam Thielen DND, (37) Keenan Allen DND, (38) Brandin Aiyuk, (39) Michael Pittman Jr.

**I'd consider all of these as buy's or compete now cheapies if you can get them cheap from a non-compete roster. I expect most of them to cost a 1st and I'm leery paying that for any of them. 

Tier 5 - (40) N'Keal Harry, (41) Marquise Brown, (42) Henry Ruggs III, (43) Corey Davis, (44) Julio Jones DND, (45) Odell Beckham Jr. DND, (46) Brandin Cooks DND, (47) Robby Anderson DND, (48) Jarvis Landry DND, (49) Tyler Boyd, (50) Quintez Cephus, (51) Allen Lazard, (52) AJ Green DND, (53) Parris Campbell DND, (54) Julian Edelman DND, (55) Will Fuller DND, (56) Marvin Jones DND

**I'd cash out any of these if I can get a 1st. If not they might die on your roster. I don't see them as being helpful for compete now teams or long term answers so I'd cash out for whatever I can get. 

That's it for what I'm comfortable with in my rankings.  After these it gets real dicey with who's next, but I'd start heavily favoring youth there as I don't think anyone will give you enough production to either help you win or compete, so in a startup or value wise, you'd rather go for upside from younger players.  ex. Kirk, Isabella, Slayton, Mike Williams, Miller, Shepard, Sims, Watson, AGG, Hardman, Tyler Johnson, Duvernay, Claypool, Tre'Quan, those types along with others. I just don't know my order for them at all.  

 

[Truebluey]

Interesting. I'm interested in the reasoning behind Edwards at 30 and Ruggs at 42? I have them similarly, but LV obviously values them differently.

 

[Zyphros]

Interesting. I'm interested in the reasoning behind Edwards at 30 and Ruggs at 42? I have them similarly, but LV obviously values them differently.

Mostly just using my rankings from before the draft. Relying on my evaluation. They've both instantly become starters, one has the size/speed/toughness to be a true #1, the other doesn't. Ruggs has never been a #1 for fantasy, at best he's TY Hilton, somewhere in the middle he's John Brown, and worse case he's John Ross. None of which have ever been super valuable assets. Both rookies, but I've seen more from Edwards (and believed in him long ago) to be more bullish on his outlook to last longer in the NFL. 

 

[Zyphros]

Again lots of movement, and the way I normally see rankings is that people undervalue the youth side of things. They start low and eventually work their way up. Yes I prefer youth. I'm not an ageist but I'm damn close. Just look at rankings from last year and see how many players got replaced. Usually opportunity is almost immediate for RB's, and if they don't get it they generally aren't very good. There are exceptions though, usually when it comes to a bad coach, or a small role that expands into more. So the arrow can point up if there isn't a great start. All the top rookies have had moments, they've all had work, Akers had an injury which stopped him, Swift has an idiot coach. Those are the 2 that can be viewed questionably. IF there was some sort of optimism other than their draft capital or rookie evaluation, Akers, Dobbins and Swift would all be viewed in Tier2. But I haven't seen it yet. 

On to the rankings for RB's.

Tier 1 - (1) Christian McCaffrey, (2) Jonathan Taylor, (3) Saquon Barkley, (4) Josh Jacobs, (5) Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 0 offensive/workload concerns for all of them and they're all relatively stable for the next 2-3 years. Can't say the same about the next tier. 

Tier 2 -  (6) Miles Sanders, (7) Dalvin Cook, (8) Alvin Kamara DND, (9) Ezekiel Elliott DND, (10) Joe Mixon, (11) Aaron Jones, (12) Nick Chubb - Sanders/Cook/Kamara all of their offenses could either spike or take a nose dive this year. Sanders with possibly Wentz's benching, Cook with how bad that team is in general, Kamara unknown future without Brees. That's what keeps them out of Tier1. Zeke/Mixon/Jones/Chubb, all have solid workloads but offenses are looking like they're taking a new direction. It's not Zeke's team, it's Dak's. Mixon gets work but they throw a TON more. Jones I like a lot but they don't use him to his full ability. Chubb has Hunt to deal with for touches, although he does get his, but I worry about gamescript. Those are all the reasons I separated the top2 tiers. 

Tier 3 - (13) Austin Ekeler, (14) Cam Akers, (15) Derrick Henry, (16) JK Dobbins, (17) DeAndre Swift, (18) James Robinson, (19) Kareem Hunt

Tier 4 - (20) Antonio Gibson, (21) Darrell Henderson, (22) Kenyan Drake DND, (23) Leonard Fournette, (24) David Montgomery, (25) Zack Moss, (26) Joshua Kelley, (27) Melvin Gordon DND, (28) Le'Veon Bell DND, (29) Devin Singletary DND, (30) AJ Dillon

Tier 5 - (31) Chris Carson, (32) Marlon Mack, (33) Tony Pollard, (34) Raheem Mostert DND, (35) Anthony McFarland Jr., (36) James Conner DND, (37) David Johnson DND

Tier 6 - (38) Myles Gaskin, (39) Benny Snell, (40) Chase Edmonds, (4`) Ke'Shawn Vaughn, (42) Ronald Jones, (43) Royce Freeman, (44) Rashaad Penny, (45) Ryquell Armstead, (46) Philip Lindsay, (47) Derrius Guice, (48) James White, (9) Damien Harris, (50) Todd Gurley DND, (51) Jerick McKinnon

Tier 7 - (52) Sony Michel, (53) DeeJay Dallas, (54) Nyheim Hines, (55) Darrynton Evans, (56) Kerryon Johnson, (57) Devine Ozigbo, (58) Damien Williams DND, (59) Tarik Cohen, (60) Mark Ingram DND

Overall I see the RB group as rather thin, but very top heavy. The top~20 or so I'd feel relatively confident with as my RB1 or RB2. After that it begins to get questionable about role, or how much workload an aged vet would get. I feel like I say this every year since RB's can fade so quickly into being irrelevant or replaced. Hopefully this 2020 rookie class becomes a thing and puts some of those thoughts to rest. But even if they do, it's not like all of them will hit long term so good luck figuring that out. 

Of the notable names at RB, in 2021, Drake, Gurley, Lindsay, Aaron Jones, Mack, Conner, Carson, Fournette are all free agents. That's a lot of quality RB talent that could easily muddy a bunch of water in the future. I'd be careful about buying any one of those. Any 2021 rookie might make it into the backfield with 1 or 2 of them and torpedo their value too. 

 

[Biabreakable]

I appreciate the rankings. There is quite a bit here that I agree with and obviously some of it I don't.

I think you value youth a bit too much but I am guilty of that as well.

I think Cook belongs in tier one. Yes the Vikings offense has been a mess so far this season, Cook is performing at a high level anyways.

 

[Zyphros]

I appreciate the rankings. There is quite a bit here that I agree with and obviously some of it I don't.

I think you value youth a bit too much but I am guilty of that as well.

I think Cook belongs in tier one. Yes the Vikings offense has been a mess so far this season, Cook is performing at a high level anyways.

I know I'm heavy on the age side. My excuse is that these rankings are for rebuilders and startups. It's future value because youth is always regarded higher in leagues as well. In reality there's only 4-6 teams in a playoff so the other 4/6/8/10 teams should be fighting for the youth on their rosters and that's where I see the value increase. There's more teams fighting for future years than there are for championships. And in startups you keep your window open much longer, because after all, you're trying to create a dynasty. I won't deny there's the sacrifice of some value/production/quality players, but the upside of young players hitting is what I prefer to begin building my teams around. 

As for Cook, I think you're definitely right there is a case to be made he should be in Tier1. I was never a fan of his and since I had Sanders ahead of him, and couldn't bump Sanders due to team uncertainty, I felt the need to keep them both out of the top tier. At first I had Sanders in that tier, then fought in my head if Cook belonged, and then my logic took over and realized it was the same argument so I took both out. 

 

[Biabreakable]

I know I'm heavy on the age side. My excuse is that these rankings are for rebuilders and startups. It's future value because youth is always regarded higher in leagues as well. In reality there's only 4-6 teams in a playoff so the other 4/6/8/10 teams should be fighting for the youth on their rosters and that's where I see the value increase. There's more teams fighting for future years than there are for championships. And in startups you keep your window open much longer, because after all, you're trying to create a dynasty. I won't deny there's the sacrifice of some value/production/quality players, but the upside of young players hitting is what I prefer to begin building my teams around. 

As for Cook, I think you're definitely right there is a case to be made he should be in Tier1. I was never a fan of his and since I had Sanders ahead of him, and couldn't bump Sanders due to team uncertainty, I felt the need to keep them both out of the top tier. At first I had Sanders in that tier, then fought in my head if Cook belonged, and then my logic took over and realized it was the same argument so I took both out. 

Well that is because Sanders should not be ahead of Cook.

eta - based on what you said here, your logic ends up downgrading Cook because Sanders isn't good enough for tier one. Thats not right man!

 

[Zyphros]

Well that is because Sanders should not be ahead of Cook.

eta - based on what you said here, your logic ends up downgrading Cook because Sanders isn't good enough for tier one. Thats not right man!

What I mean is that Sanders and Cook aren't Tier1 because offense around them is piss poor and the overall team outlook (coaches/QB/front office) may be changing in the future. Sanders is ahead of Cook because his workload is the same and he's younger. 

 

[Soulfly3]

Seeing chubb under all those names just.... i dunno, man. 

even sharing the load he's monster. and it'll likely keep him fresher, longer.