Philip Rivers (1 Viewer)

[kawaihae]

I was all about Philip Rivers this year. Huge talent around him, seems to have mastered a Norv Turner offense, weak opponents in the AFC West. What's not to like? Had him as my #2 QB behind Brees.

Well, the last second firing of Chan Gailey drove home the obvious point that the AFC West is just way too screwed up. But it also made me do something I haven't done before...maybe its time to downgrade Rivers because his schedule is way too easy? Raiders, Broncos and Chiefs are six of his games. And he also plays the Browns and the Bengals. If the Chargers O is clicking the way it should, eight of his 16 games could be over and done by the 3rd quarter, leading to a steady dose of the run, or maybe Billy Volek. I can't remember ever taking this into consideration before, but I also can't remember a conference as bad as the AFC West before.

To further complicate things, two of his other games are against the Steelers and Ravens. Talk about extremes.

I'm bumping down Rivers.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Don't you usually like your QB to have good matchups?

 

[kawaihae]

Yeah, I normally do. But I was trying to say that this year is the only time I can remember that there is an exception to the rule. Basically, that the opponents on Rivers's scheudule are SO bad, it crosses over from being a good thing to being a bad thing.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

Yeah, I normally do. But I was trying to say that this year is the only time I can remember that there is an exception to the rule. Basically, that the opponents on Rivers's scheudule are SO bad, it crosses over from being a good thing to being a bad thing.

I think you are over analyzing this. Even if they are all blowouts, Rivers will get some digits on his way to the blowout.Some of those games will stay close though, even though it may not appear so on paper. Division games are often much closer than the match-up would dictate.

If you like Rivers as the number 2 QB, then IMO you should not alter that ranking based upon the thought that his schedule is too easy.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Rivers 2008 performance is eerily like Big Ben in 2007. This board went gaga over Big Ben and a lot of us said he would be pressed to toss 20 TDs...

Not a lot of QBs toss 30 TD a year...only one in recent memory who could do it consistently was Mr Favre. Manning...nope, Brady...huh uh...Rodgers last year had a great season and he tossed 24.

San Diego will be running the ball in the 2nd half to close games out. Look for LT to be very solid, and perhaps Sproles even in mop up duty might be worth 75 and a score every week.

 

[Avery]

Rivers 2008 performance is eerily like Big Ben in 2007. This board went gaga over Big Ben and a lot of us said he would be pressed to toss 20 TDs...Not a lot of QBs toss 30 TD a year...only one in recent memory who could do it consistently was Mr Favre. Manning...nope, Brady...huh uh...Rodgers last year had a great season and he tossed 24.San Diego will be running the ball in the 2nd half to close games out. Look for LT to be very solid, and perhaps Sproles even in mop up duty might be worth 75 and a score every week.

This.

Ben lost one of the best OL in the league and played on one of the greatest defenses of all-time last year. I don't think their situations are comparable.Yes, Rivers will throw fewer TDs this year, but Brees will throw for fewer yards, and DeAngelo Williams will rush for fewer TDs.

 

[Ozymandias]

It's interesting that at the end of the season, they don't add up to see how easy the games were on paper.

They actually play the games to determine the standings.

Last year:

Steelers 10 Browns 6

Kansas City 33 Broncos 19

Broncos 16 Bucs 13

Buc 27 Panthers 3

Rams 19 Redskins 13

Vikings 12 Lions 10

Browns 35 Giants 14

Raiders 16 Jets 13

And so on...

Couldn't those guys read the papers? Why play the game?

 

[puckalicious]

Just look at how QB's did against Detroit last season.... and you'll be pretty happy about Rivers having great matchups.

 

[drfeelgood]

Yeah, I normally do. But I was trying to say that this year is the only time I can remember that there is an exception to the rule. Basically, that the opponents on Rivers's scheudule are SO bad, it crosses over from being a good thing to being a bad thing.

I don't think you are giving the bad teams enough credit. No matter how bad some of the AFC West teams have been in the past, the division games are usually high scoring. Teams generally improve as the season goes on too. San Diego has some hard teams on their schedule as well such as Pittsburgh, Ravens, Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Titans, etc.

 

[Tau837]

Rivers 2008 performance is eerily like Big Ben in 2007. This board went gaga over Big Ben and a lot of us said he would be pressed to toss 20 TDs...Not a lot of QBs toss 30 TD a year...only one in recent memory who could do it consistently was Mr Favre. Manning...nope, Brady...huh uh...Rodgers last year had a great season and he tossed 24.

Are you saying you think Rivers will be pressed to toss 20 TDs this year?

San Diego will be running the ball in the 2nd half to close games out. Look for LT to be very solid, and perhaps Sproles even in mop up duty might be worth 75 and a score every week.

Are you saying you think Sproles is going to have 1200 yards from scrimmage (75/game) and 16 TDs?

 

[The Jerk]

Rivers 2008 performance is eerily like Big Ben in 2007. This board went gaga over Big Ben and a lot of us said he would be pressed to toss 20 TDs...Not a lot of QBs toss 30 TD a year...only one in recent memory who could do it consistently was Mr Favre. Manning...nope, Brady...huh uh...Rodgers last year had a great season and he tossed 24.San Diego will be running the ball in the 2nd half to close games out. Look for LT to be very solid, and perhaps Sproles even in mop up duty might be worth 75 and a score every week.

This.

Is inaccurate.Rodgers threw for 28 TDs last year (and ran for 4 TD for a total of 32).

 

[Black]

Rivers 2008 performance is eerily like Big Ben in 2007. This board went gaga over Big Ben and a lot of us said he would be pressed to toss 20 TDs...Not a lot of QBs toss 30 TD a year...only one in recent memory who could do it consistently was Mr Favre. Manning...nope, Brady...huh uh...Rodgers last year had a great season and he tossed 24.San Diego will be running the ball in the 2nd half to close games out. Look for LT to be very solid, and perhaps Sproles even in mop up duty might be worth 75 and a score every week.

Totally agree with MoP here...LT fell to me in round 2. Even though I love Rivers, I passed over him to take McNabb a round later (and I don't really 'like' McNabb).I think 32 TDs was very similar to Ben's 2007. It was a function of a sputtering ground game. All the talk from Norv is LT will get enough carries to lead the league in rushing in 2009. I also agree that a soft division probably means more rushing TDs than passing.In general, I believe in the regression to the mean, with possible exception of Tom Brady this year, who I am still expecting to get 35+ TDs.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

over thinking it.

 

[Godsbrother]

over thinking it.

GRab the good matchups and enjoy it.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Rivers 2008 performance is eerily like Big Ben in 2007. This board went gaga over Big Ben and a lot of us said he would be pressed to toss 20 TDs...Not a lot of QBs toss 30 TD a year...only one in recent memory who could do it consistently was Mr Favre. Manning...nope, Brady...huh uh...Rodgers last year had a great season and he tossed 24.San Diego will be running the ball in the 2nd half to close games out. Look for LT to be very solid, and perhaps Sproles even in mop up duty might be worth 75 and a score every week.

Totally agree with MoP here...LT fell to me in round 2. Even though I love Rivers, I passed over him to take McNabb a round later (and I don't really 'like' McNabb).I think 32 TDs was very similar to Ben's 2007. It was a function of a sputtering ground game. All the talk from Norv is LT will get enough carries to lead the league in rushing in 2009. I also agree that a soft division probably means more rushing TDs than passing.In general, I believe in the regression to the mean, with possible exception of Tom Brady this year, who I am still expecting to get 35+ TDs.

I got news for you guys after carefully watching the chargers and particularly the right side of the Oline, I think LT's numbers will be similar to last year. As I think Rivers numbers will be as well. Now the Defense with Merriman back might be better, but they are still weak at one DE spot, ILB and Saftey. Dont forget they still play Pitt,Balt,Miami,Tenn,Dallas, Philly, NYG, Wash - so thats 8 games vs. potential playoff (or playoff calibre) teams.

 

[latrops]

I was all about Philip Rivers this year. Huge talent around him, seems to have mastered a Norv Turner offense, weak opponents in the AFC West. What's not to like? Had him as my #2 QB behind Brees.Well, the last second firing of Chan Gailey drove home the obvious point that the AFC West is just way too screwed up. But it also made me do something I haven't done before...maybe its time to downgrade Rivers because his schedule is way too easy? Raiders, Broncos and Chiefs are six of his games. And he also plays the Browns and the Bengals. If the Chargers O is clicking the way it should, eight of his 16 games could be over and done by the 3rd quarter, leading to a steady dose of the run, or maybe Billy Volek. I can't remember ever taking this into consideration before, but I also can't remember a conference as bad as the AFC West before.To further complicate things, two of his other games are against the Steelers and Ravens. Talk about extremes.I'm bumping down Rivers.

You are overthinking things. If his opponents are that bad, he could have 260 yards and 3 tds midway through the 3rd quarter often enough. Also, while I agree that the Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders look bad going into the season....things seldom go as expected. Out of the 8 games you mentioned, I bet at least 4 are competitive into the 4th quarter and San Diego probably loses a couple of them.

 

[The Jerk]

Ben lost one of the best OL in the league and played on one of the greatest defenses of all-time last year. I don't think their situations are comparable.Yes, Rivers will throw fewer TDs this year, but Brees will throw for fewer yards, and DeAngelo Williams will rush for fewer TDs.

Furthering Chase's point about the situations being not comparable...One of the frequent topics of conversation last year was how the 2008 Steelers faced one of the most difficult schedules in the past 25 seasons. The Steelers were 20th in points scored last season with 347.Over the past five seasons the lowest point total for the Chargers is 412 and their lowest ranking league-wide in points scored is fifth.San Diego's average yearly points total from 2004-2008 is 441.4.So there actually is quite a bit different between the situations.The Chargers face a very soft schedule, not the most difficult projected schedule in the league, and if they score at their 2004-2008 average, the 2009 Chargers figure to score nearly 6 ppg more than the 2008 Steelers. Perhaps of most importance, the Chargers allowed 347 points last season, nearly 8 ppg more than the Steelers. That number is likely to go down, but from 2004-2007 the Chargers averaged 303 points allowed per season, a full 5 ppg more than the 2008 Steelers.

 

[pollardsvision]

Wait, so you had Rivers at #2, but you are now downgrading him because the Chiefs fired their OC?

Were you expecting the Chiefs to be great before that?

Do you feel like Rivers' success last year was due in large part to that stiff AFC West competition?

 

[The Jerk]

Totally agree with MoP here...LT fell to me in round 2. Even though I love Rivers, I passed over him to take McNabb a round later (and I don't really 'like' McNabb).

I will be positively thrilled in any league to pair LT with Rivers. Start them both and just enjoy the points-fests that many Chargers games figure to be.

 

[Godsbrother]

Wait, so you had Rivers at #2, but you are now downgrading him because the Chiefs fired their OC?Were you expecting the Chiefs to be great before that?Do you feel like Rivers' success last year was due in large part to that stiff AFC West competition?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Rivers 2008 performance is eerily like Big Ben in 2007. This board went gaga over Big Ben and a lot of us said he would be pressed to toss 20 TDs...Not a lot of QBs toss 30 TD a year...only one in recent memory who could do it consistently was Mr Favre. Manning...nope, Brady...huh uh...Rodgers last year had a great season and he tossed 24.

Are you saying you think Rivers will be pressed to toss 20 TDs this year?

San Diego will be running the ball in the 2nd half to close games out. Look for LT to be very solid, and perhaps Sproles even in mop up duty might be worth 75 and a score every week.

Are you saying you think Sproles is going to have 1200 yards from scrimmage (75/game) and 16 TDs?

Hi JWB, good questions. I see Rivers going past 20, too much talent and the system will allow him to throw the ball. But let's not forget that San Diego is coached by Turner and I don't think his QBa throw for 34 TDs too often. I could definitely say that Rivers has the most talent of any QB he's coached. but I see a band of somewhere between 22-26...I really think San Diego will be much more committed to that ground game this season.Sproles...I don't think 1,000 yds is out of the question...6-8 TDs...and that is as the #2. When San Diego is up 21-3 on the Chiefs, I don't think they will hand the ball to LT a lot the rest of the way, probably want to keep him as fresh as possible.I know you are a huge Rivers fan JWB, and you were banging that drum before it was trendy. I give you a lot of props on the guy, you opened up my eyes to him as a star in this league. But his stats this season will fall short...well short of his adp IMHO.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Rivers 2008 performance is eerily like Big Ben in 2007. This board went gaga over Big Ben and a lot of us said he would be pressed to toss 20 TDs...Not a lot of QBs toss 30 TD a year...only one in recent memory who could do it consistently was Mr Favre. Manning...nope, Brady...huh uh...Rodgers last year had a great season and he tossed 24.San Diego will be running the ball in the 2nd half to close games out. Look for LT to be very solid, and perhaps Sproles even in mop up duty might be worth 75 and a score every week.

This.

Is inaccurate.Rodgers threw for 28 TDs last year (and ran for 4 TD for a total of 32).

Thanks for the correction, for some reason I thought it was 24.

 

[Bankerguy]

I'll over simplify this "problem". In blowouts, lots of points have to be scored before starters are rested or teams start to milk the run. In other words, he'll likely have to score lot's of points in order for this to happen. I don't see the problem.

 

[Tau837]

Rivers 2008 performance is eerily like Big Ben in 2007. This board went gaga over Big Ben and a lot of us said he would be pressed to toss 20 TDs...Not a lot of QBs toss 30 TD a year...only one in recent memory who could do it consistently was Mr Favre. Manning...nope, Brady...huh uh...Rodgers last year had a great season and he tossed 24.

Are you saying you think Rivers will be pressed to toss 20 TDs this year?

San Diego will be running the ball in the 2nd half to close games out. Look for LT to be very solid, and perhaps Sproles even in mop up duty might be worth 75 and a score every week.

Are you saying you think Sproles is going to have 1200 yards from scrimmage (75/game) and 16 TDs?

Hi JWB, good questions.I see Rivers going past 20, too much talent and the system will allow him to throw the ball. But let's not forget that San Diego is coached by Turner and I don't think his QBa throw for 34 TDs too often. I could definitely say that Rivers has the most talent of any QB he's coached. but I see a band of somewhere between 22-26...I really think San Diego will be much more committed to that ground game this season.Sproles...I don't think 1,000 yds is out of the question...6-8 TDs...and that is as the #2. When San Diego is up 21-3 on the Chiefs, I don't think they will hand the ball to LT a lot the rest of the way, probably want to keep him as fresh as possible.I know you are a huge Rivers fan JWB, and you were banging that drum before it was trendy. I give you a lot of props on the guy, you opened up my eyes to him as a star in this league. But his stats this season will fall short...well short of his adp IMHO.

OK, these answers are what I expected. So you expect Rivers to throw for 22-26 TDs... quite a bit better than Roethlisberger 2008 and quite a bit more than what you apparently projected for Ben last year, since you say you said then Ben would be hard pressed to throw 20.I guess I'm not really seeing why you started off by saying Rivers' situation this year is eerily similar to Ben's last year, since apparently you are projecting Rivers to do much better this year than you projected Ben to do last year. What's the relevance of Roethlisberger here? FWIW, I think the comparison between their situations is (a) overblown and (b) a sample size of one, which is useless.All that said, I tend to agree that I wouldn't draft Rivers where he is being drafted... he went 2.13 in my 14 team redraft this past weekend, as the 5th QB drafted. I took Cutler at 8.7 and Garrard at 10.7.As for Sproles, he only had 672 yards from scrimmage and 6 TDs last year in the regular season, and that was with Tomlinson and Gates playing hurt most of the season. I love Sproles, but I don't see any way he reaches 1000 YFS unless you are projecting injuries to other players.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Rivers 2008 performance is eerily like Big Ben in 2007. This board went gaga over Big Ben and a lot of us said he would be pressed to toss 20 TDs...Not a lot of QBs toss 30 TD a year...only one in recent memory who could do it consistently was Mr Favre. Manning...nope, Brady...huh uh...Rodgers last year had a great season and he tossed 24.

Are you saying you think Rivers will be pressed to toss 20 TDs this year?

San Diego will be running the ball in the 2nd half to close games out. Look for LT to be very solid, and perhaps Sproles even in mop up duty might be worth 75 and a score every week.

Are you saying you think Sproles is going to have 1200 yards from scrimmage (75/game) and 16 TDs?

Hi JWB, good questions.I see Rivers going past 20, too much talent and the system will allow him to throw the ball. But let's not forget that San Diego is coached by Turner and I don't think his QBa throw for 34 TDs too often. I could definitely say that Rivers has the most talent of any QB he's coached. but I see a band of somewhere between 22-26...I really think San Diego will be much more committed to that ground game this season.Sproles...I don't think 1,000 yds is out of the question...6-8 TDs...and that is as the #2. When San Diego is up 21-3 on the Chiefs, I don't think they will hand the ball to LT a lot the rest of the way, probably want to keep him as fresh as possible.I know you are a huge Rivers fan JWB, and you were banging that drum before it was trendy. I give you a lot of props on the guy, you opened up my eyes to him as a star in this league. But his stats this season will fall short...well short of his adp IMHO.

OK, these answers are what I expected. So you expect Rivers to throw for 22-26 TDs... quite a bit better than Roethlisberger 2008 and quite a bit more than what you apparently projected for Ben last year, since you say you said then Ben would be hard pressed to throw 20.I guess I'm not really seeing why you started off by saying Rivers' situation this year is eerily similar to Ben's last year, since apparently you are projecting Rivers to do much better this year than you projected Ben to do last year. What's the relevance of Roethlisberger here? FWIW, I think the comparison between their situations is (a) overblown and (b) a sample size of one, which is useless.All that said, I tend to agree that I wouldn't draft Rivers where he is being drafted... he went 2.13 in my 14 team redraft this past weekend, as the 5th QB drafted. I took Cutler at 8.7 and Garrard at 10.7.As for Sproles, he only had 672 yards from scrimmage and 6 TDs last year in the regular season, and that was with Tomlinson and Gates playing hurt most of the season. I love Sproles, but I don't see any way he reaches 1000 YFS unless you are projecting injuries to other players.

1,000 yds rush/rec combined, 6-8 TDs...with all that talent around him, easily could happen. This is why I think Rivers won't hit 30+ again...a lot of talent in the backfield. Big Ben is relevant though because I don't see any way that Rivers can eclipse last year's numbers and they are being drafted about the same spot just like last year...Big Ben was like #5 off the board, way too high. We actually see pretty eye to eye on this.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Yeah, I normally do. But I was trying to say that this year is the only time I can remember that there is an exception to the rule. Basically, that the opponents on Rivers's scheudule are SO bad, it crosses over from being a good thing to being a bad thing.

San Diego was 9-7 last season and their defense was dreadful. I'd expect that the fact that their defense is more healthy (Merriman in particular) it should sure up the defense a little, but it's not like they'll necessarily become a juggernaut on both sides of the ball. KC kept the games close last season and they should be a little better on paper at least. Oakland has a decent pass defense and a strong running game so they could keep some games close and who really knows with Denver.I see your point but I feel you're taking it too far - how many times do teams really pull their starting QB even in blowouts. I do think Rivers should be downgraded a little as his TD ratio doesn't seem sustainable but he'll still be fine.

 

[Tau837]

Yeah, I normally do. But I was trying to say that this year is the only time I can remember that there is an exception to the rule. Basically, that the opponents on Rivers's scheudule are SO bad, it crosses over from being a good thing to being a bad thing.

San Diego was 9-7 last season and their defense was dreadful. I'd expect that the fact that their defense is more healthy (Merriman in particular) it should sure up the defense a little, but it's not like they'll necessarily become a juggernaut on both sides of the ball. KC kept the games close last season and they should be a little better on paper at least. Oakland has a decent pass defense and a strong running game so they could keep some games close and who really knows with Denver.I see your point but I feel you're taking it too far - how many times do teams really pull their starting QB even in blowouts. I do think Rivers should be downgraded a little as his TD ratio doesn't seem sustainable but he'll still be fine.

San Diego was 8-8 last season. (Unless you're counting the Ed Hochuli loss as a win...)Also, you say their defense was dreadful... but it was 15th in points allowed to go along with 25th in yards allowed. Certainly that is a substantial dropoff from 2007, but it's not like their defense was the worst in the league... it was below average. I agree it should improve, but that could result in San Diego running a lot more offensive plays (last year, only 3 teams ran fewer), so I think it's a wash in terms of effect on Rivers.In his three years as a starter, San Diego has attempted a minimum of 466 passes and a maximum of 478 passes. There is no reason to believe Rivers won't fall right within that range again, with upside for more if the running game and/or defense struggles.

 

[PahtyTom]

Coaches don't let up in the NFL. Rivers is a stud surrounded by TD catchers.

 

[Gr00vus]

As for Sproles, he only had 672 yards from scrimmage and 6 TDs last year in the regular season, and that was with Tomlinson and Gates playing hurt most of the season. I love Sproles, but I don't see any way he reaches 1000 YFS unless you are projecting injuries to other players.

Let's also not forget that about half his yards and all but one of his TDs came on receptions. Sproles is a positive for Rivers's numbers, not a negative.The offense is Phil's now. The only thing that will keep his numbers down is injury.

 

[Gr00vus]

Now the Defense with Merriman back might be better, but they are still weak at one DE spot, ILB and Saftey.

[hijack]Agree on the problem at DE, disagree on ILB and Safety. I think Burnett at ILB and eventually Ellison at S will be solid at those spots this year.[/hijack]

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Now the Defense with Merriman back might be better, but they are still weak at one DE spot, ILB and Saftey.

[hijack]Agree on the problem at DE, disagree on ILB and Safety. I think Burnett at ILB and eventually Ellison at S will be solid at those spots this year.[/hijack]

hijack/Burnett isnt a 3 down player. A rookie at S? hmmm end hijack/

 

[Gr00vus]

Now the Defense with Merriman back might be better, but they are still weak at one DE spot, ILB and Saftey.

[hijack]Agree on the problem at DE, disagree on ILB and Safety. I think Burnett at ILB and eventually Ellison at S will be solid at those spots this year.

[/hijack]

hijack/Burnett isnt a 3 down player. A rookie at S? hmmm

end hijack/

Taking this to the charger thread...

 

[David Yudkin]

1,000 yds rush/rec combined, 6-8 TDs...with all that talent around him, easily could happen. This is why I think Rivers won't hit 30+ again...a lot of talent in the backfield. Big Ben is relevant though because I don't see any way that Rivers can eclipse last year's numbers and they are being drafted about the same spot just like last year...Big Ben was like #5 off the board, way too high. We actually see pretty eye to eye on this.

Just curious how you see Spoles getting his 1,000 yards. If hisory showed us anything, it's that Turner has and will feed the ball to LT. Turner was around for years and had a best of 83 touches in SD. Sproles did have 90 touches last year (and 670 yfs). How many more touches are you giving him and at whose expense?I would start this all by suggesting that LT will get his 300 carries and 50 receptions. Layer on Sproles on top of that. Also give Rivers his usual 475 passing attempts and that's already 775 plays on the season. SD had a very low total of 921 offensive plays last year (899 actual plays, the others were sacks).

 

[Gr00vus]

I would start this all by suggesting that LT will get his 300 carries and 50 receptions.

I think these are probably too high. I'd be more comfortable at around 275 and 35-40. Not only will Sproles cut into his touches by design in the normal offense, but if they do experience the blow outs people are expecting this year I think Norv sits Tomlinson in late games. They've been experimenting with several grind out the clock packages this pre-season. In blow outs I'd expect either Hester, Johnson or maybe Bennett to be getting a good deal of the 4th quarter carries.

 

[David Yudkin]

I would start this all by suggesting that LT will get his 300 carries and 50 receptions.

I think these are probably too high. I'd be more comfortable at around 275 and 35-40. Not only will Sproles cut into his touches by design in the normal offense, but if they do experience the blow outs people are expecting this year I think Norv sits Tomlinson in late games. They've been experimenting with several grind out the clock packages this pre-season. In blow outs I'd expect either Hester, Johnson or maybe Bennett to be getting a good deal of the 4th quarter carries.

You may be right . . . but that's not what Turner said. Last I heard, he was projecting a usual workload year for LT.I also don't see all the blowouts that some are predicting, but that's another debate.

 

[California]

I can't believe this. When I set lineups every week I've never sat anyone because I thought "hmm, this matchup is TOO good".

 

[jon_mx]

Don't you have to score about 28 points to be a blowout? I remember Mannings and Brady's best years were when they were blowing people out. The downside could be though, if they wrap of their playoff spot too soon. Manning was absolutely worthless the last month of the season on his big year.