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Phillies - the start of a run or just 1 title? (1 Viewer)

kaa

kaa

Footballguy
What do you think is more likely? Will the Phillies become the team to beat after this win, like the Red Sox were, or is this more of a one-off world title like the White Sox?

 
I hope this doesn't sound like sour grapes in light of recent events, but they need better SP to get back here.

Great bullpen, great offense, great defense, really mediocre SP outside of Hamels. I just don't see Myers, Moyer and Blanton bringing them back to the promised land.

 
I think that they have the ability to be in the mix for the next 3 or 4 years. I do think they need a legit number two but unless the Cubs or Mets go hogwild in the offseason....

 
I agree that they need more starting pitching.

They have J.A. Happ and Carlos Carrasco as possible young replacements, but it would be great to get another big-time starter.

However, they have 10 players up for arbitration, including the NLCS and World Series MVP and the guy who has the most homers and RBI's over the past 3 years by far. Plus Victorino, Werth and Blanton should get decent bumps.

I am guessing that they will let Burrell walk. They lose Thome's contract and Gordon's contract. That frees up about 20 million, but it will easily be made up by the arbitration bumps. Moyer is a question mark, but will likely cost $5-7 million

It seems likely that they will be a contender, but I would not say that it is the start of a run.

 
Howard already went through arbitration last year

edit - ah that was for just this year - I thought they signed him to 4 years for some reason

 
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belljr said:
Howard already went through arbitration last year
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And he signed a one-year contract.You keep going through that process until you become a free agent.He will go through arbitration this year and next year unless the Phillies can sign him to a long-term deal.
 
Only players of note eligible for free agency are Burrell and Moyer..

Word is they will try and sign both.. I agree with Capella- this team does need another solid SP (or two) to make it back.. If they can somehow manage that, look out.. Hamels is just scratching the surface of greatness.. he is only 24!!

That said, the Rays future may be even brighter!

 
Honestly, the 2 big free agents are replaceable.

Moyer is roughly an average starter who is going to have his performance fall off a cliff soon.

Burrell is good, but replaceable as a LF bat, and he'll be expensive as well.

I think Blanton > Moyer, so we're really talking upgrading the 4th & 5th best starters. Also, Blanton is under contract for next season, I think.

The #5 starter is irrelevant once you get to the postseason, so really it's trying to find that 4th guy.

 
They just won a title, so all respect for that but I don't see the makings of a dynasty here. Their IF and Hamels are an excellent core but there's a lack of quality beyond that. There are some holes in the order, especially if Burrell leaves. Bullpens have a way of regressing to the mean over time. The bench is neither young or good.

If they stay healthy and spend wisely, the Phillies should remain in the mix as a playoff contender, but they're not the Big Red Machine of this era.

 
I think Tampa is the team more likely at the start of a run, they've got some great young players, especially pitching.

(Thats assuming that the Yankees and Red Sox don't buy all their good players)

 
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Anything can happen in baseball, it all depends on how healthy each team's starting pitchers are come October.

 
Lehigh98 said:
I think Tampa is the team more likely at the start of a run, they've got some great young players, especially pitching.(Thats assuming that the Yankees and Red Sox don't buy all their good players)
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:lmao: I love the Tampa line up, and this is coming from a Phillies fan. The Phil's ABSOLUTELY need a better #2. A starting trio of Hamels, solid #2, Myers would be very nice. The core of this team isn't going anywhere (Rollins/Utley/Howard/Victorino), but Burrell will not be back IMO, and Moyer should retire. Tampa on the other hand has those top 3 starters in place, they are all young and getting better, and that lineup is also young/getting better. Maybe add another bat and improve the bullpen and that is a scary good team.
 
Lotta magic this year, but I think they go right back to the head of the class in that division, which gives them an instant leg up.

Lidge can't repeat this year, but he's definately the best closer in the NL, and what is most impressive to me about this team is their ability to run downhill once they start believing. We saw it first last september when they smelled blood against Mets and overtook them and were probably a little overwhelmed(and satisfied?) against the Rocks(who were red hot at the time).

They came with focus this year, and yes, also relied on the Mets falling back in September(a team with ANY stones at least puts them in a playoff).

But once Philly got in, they got their run going and were off.

I just think its tough for any team to repeat in this era. I mean, if I thought any team would have been lined up to do it, it was the Angels, and they've never gotten back to the world series.

But they have a bright future with Hamels in Philly. They have some Cash now, it'd be great to get one of these secondary starters out there like Burnett to back the rest of that rotation up. I think Blanton will be better in the regular season now that he's adjusted and Moyer is on borrowed time at his age, so you need to be prepared if he suddenly slips, but you'd have to think he'll be a compitent number 4.

 
It depends on whether ownership wants to stick to its budget or not. They rarely deviate from it, but with the WS win, they might be able to justify raising ticket prices by enough to fund a big increase in spending.

It will be easier if "the good Myers" returns for a full season. Otherwise we need a legitimate #2 starter. The back end of the rotation should sort itself out; one or two of Kendrick, Happ, or Carlos Carrasco should assert themselves. The bullpen should again be strong, which is huge in September and October. On offense, the main task will be to replace or resign Burrell. Everyone else should return, and we won't be wasting semi-regular at-bats on Geoff Jenkins. Lou Marson and maybe Jason Donald should improve the bench.

So a repeat is not totally out of the question. The roster doesn't scream "dynasty," but it will return mostly intact, and should be competitive, which is all you can ask for given how the playoff format works these days. If ownership is willing to boost the budget to address LF and SP2, then the chances of being competitive become much greater.

 
I know this team made the playoffs the last two years, but one year it took a historic collapse and the next merely a really bad collapse. Them even making it back to the playoffs isnt a given. You never know when the Marlins will make another run with seemingly nothing and the Mets may actually not blow up next year and I cant imagine their bullpen being as bad. Plus you have Atlanta to worry about. About the only team in that division with no shot is the Nationals.

They've got a great core of young players, but they'll need some good work by their GM to stay in the hunt.

 
dparker713 said:
I know this team made the playoffs the last two years, but one year it took a historic collapse and the next merely a really bad collapse. Them even making it back to the playoffs isnt a given. You never know when the Marlins will make another run with seemingly nothing and the Mets may actually not blow up next year and I cant imagine their bullpen being as bad. Plus you have Atlanta to worry about. About the only team in that division with no shot is the Nationals. They've got a great core of young players, but they'll need some good work by their GM to stay in the hunt.
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The Phillies had the 2nd best record in the NL, so even if the Mets didn't collapse, they would've been in. I know the Brewers also had a string of losses, but the Phillies swep of the Brewers was a big part of that, so you've got to give the Phils credit for sending the Brewers down that road.I really think Hamels-Myers-Blanton is 3/4 of a very solid top 4 starters, and the IF is good, and Werth & Victorino are adequate or slightly better than that.Really, it's raises, a # 2 pitcher & a good LF for the $$$ freed up here:Burrell: 14,250,000Eaton: 7,958,333Moyer: 6,000,000 Gordon: 5,500,000Jenkins 5,000,000 I think you could find a #2 pitcher & a LF for $20M and use the Eaton/Gordon/Jenkins cash on raises.
 
stevegamer said:
dparker713 said:
I know this team made the playoffs the last two years, but one year it took a historic collapse and the next merely a really bad collapse. Them even making it back to the playoffs isnt a given. You never know when the Marlins will make another run with seemingly nothing and the Mets may actually not blow up next year and I cant imagine their bullpen being as bad. Plus you have Atlanta to worry about. About the only team in that division with no shot is the Nationals.

They've got a great core of young players, but they'll need some good work by their GM to stay in the hunt.
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The Phillies had the 2nd best record in the NL, so even if the Mets didn't collapse, they would've been in. I know the Brewers also had a string of losses, but the Phillies swep of the Brewers was a big part of that, so you've got to give the Phils credit for sending the Brewers down that road.I really think Hamels-Myers-Blanton is 3/4 of a very solid top 4 starters, and the IF is good, and Werth & Victorino are adequate or slightly better than that.

Really, it's raises, a # 2 pitcher & a good LF for the $$$ freed up here:

Burrell: 14,250,000

Eaton: 7,958,333

Moyer: 6,000,000

Gordon: 5,500,000

Jenkins 5,000,000

I think you could find a #2 pitcher & a LF for $20M and use the Eaton/Gordon/Jenkins cash on raises.
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A number 4 starter and a LF for 20M I could see, not a number 2. Especially with all the money the Yankees have freed up this offseason. They played well this year, but bullpens are notoriously hard to predict and their rotation has some big question marks. Before anything has happened this offseason, I once again make the favorites in the NL the Cubs. That of course is subject to change over the next few months.
 
stevegamer said:
Really, it's raises, a # 2 pitcher & a good LF for the $$$ freed up here:Burrell: 14,250,000Eaton: 7,958,333Moyer: 6,000,000 Gordon: 5,500,000Jenkins 5,000,000 I think you could find a #2 pitcher & a LF for $20M and use the Eaton/Gordon/Jenkins cash on raises.
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Sadly, Eaton's contract is not up. We still owe him one more year. Chances are we will either eat it and cut him, or view it as a sunk cost and try to salvage him as a long reliever, but we are still on the hook for that money. We also owe Jenkins another year. As long as we don't give him regular at-bats, I can live with that. Moyer may or may not retire -- and will probably be re-signed to a reasonable deal if he decides to keep playing. You are probably right about Burrell. Some AL team will be able to give him a 4 year deal; we won't. The only people we know will definitely be gone are Gordon, Seanez, Taguchi, and Iguchi.
 
I agree that Tampa is probably the one with more potential to start a dynasty run. However, the AL is a tougher road, especially for an East team not in Boston or New York.

It will be tough to repeat. Look at recent history. Of course they'll be competitive but you have to get a little lucky to win the WS.

 
One thing is for sure, you probably get the least return on your money if you spend to win in the AL East. Having to try to beat out two massive payrolls in the Yankees and Red Sox every year just isn't economical.

 
kaa said:
One thing is for sure, you probably get the least return on your money if you spend to win in the AL East. Having to try to beat out two massive payrolls in the Yankees and Red Sox every year just isn't economical.
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That's why you need a series of good drafts, so that you can have a bunch of young talent at a cost significantly under market value. That's what the Rays have done, and it's what they'll have to continue to do. The next step for them is to lock up guys to reasonable contracts that take them through their arbitration years and maybe even the first years of free agency. They already did this with Longoria.
 
Pip said:
kaa said:
One thing is for sure, you probably get the least return on your money if you spend to win in the AL East. Having to try to beat out two massive payrolls in the Yankees and Red Sox every year just isn't economical.
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That's why you need a series of good drafts, so that you can have a bunch of young talent at a cost significantly under market value. That's what the Rays have done, and it's what they'll have to continue to do. The next step for them is to lock up guys to reasonable contracts that take them through their arbitration years and maybe even the first years of free agency. They already did this with Longoria.
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I hope the Rays are successful with this model. The organization will have to be lucky and good to maintain it over the long term. The main challenge will be to keep the farm system productive between now and when they start losing some of theiir young stars via free agency in five years or so. They won't have the advantage of high draft position now, and won't have the luxury of extra compensation picks until they start losing players.
 
Eephus said:
They just won a title, so all respect for that but I don't see the makings of a dynasty here. Their IF and Hamels are an excellent core but there's a lack of quality beyond that. There are some holes in the order, especially if Burrell leaves. Bullpens have a way of regressing to the mean over time. The bench is neither young or good.If they stay healthy and spend wisely, the Phillies should remain in the mix as a playoff contender, but they're not the Big Red Machine of this era.
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Concur with this.A three-round playoff is going to cut down on dynasties/title runs for everyone. It's just too difficult to get through three matchups where you're a 3:2 favorite at best each time.
 
Your Mother said:
Eephus said:
They just won a title, so all respect for that but I don't see the makings of a dynasty here. Their IF and Hamels are an excellent core but there's a lack of quality beyond that. There are some holes in the order, especially if Burrell leaves. Bullpens have a way of regressing to the mean over time. The bench is neither young or good.If they stay healthy and spend wisely, the Phillies should remain in the mix as a playoff contender, but they're not the Big Red Machine of this era.
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Concur with this.A three-round playoff is going to cut down on dynasties/title runs for everyone. It's just too difficult to get through three matchups where you're a 3:2 favorite at best each time.
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:banned:
 
the moops said:
stevegamer said:
Burrell is good, but replaceable as a LF bat,
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Only 4 left fielders in the NL posted better OPS numbers than Burrell (Holliday, Dunn, Braun and Soriano).He is not easily replaced.
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His defense & baserunning are very sub-par, and I'd really like to see a platoon out there - Phils don't platoon at any spots, and it can be a way to get production for less dollars.I'm guessing you're not counting Ramirez as a NL player.
 
stevegamer said:
the moops said:
stevegamer said:
Burrell is good, but replaceable as a LF bat,
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Only 4 left fielders in the NL posted better OPS numbers than Burrell (Holliday, Dunn, Braun and Soriano).He is not easily replaced.
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His defense & baserunning are very sub-par, and I'd really like to see a platoon out there - Phils don't platoon at any spots, and it can be a way to get production for less dollars.I'm guessing you're not counting Ramirez as a NL player.
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Yea, missed Ramirez. He doesn't pop up on qualifying lists for NL'ers.You are correct in that platoons can get production for less dollars. However, it is nearly impossible to find such a platoon. Mostly because it requires you to sign 2 free agents instead of one, but also because if the left handed batter is good enough against right handed pitching, he most likely is looking for full-time gig, or at least a salary of a full-timer.
 
First - congrats to the Phillies and their fans on the WS victory.

As a Mets fan I'd like to think it was just a one year deal but the Phillies are a never say die type of team. With that said Lidge went 48 for 48 in save chances for the year - The Mets blew 30 games and yet only lost the divison by 3 games. THAT bullpen will certainly be addresssed this offseason by the Mets.

 
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The Phils have set themselves up for the next few years. Lee at the salary he's getting is a bargain. Drabek looks to be a future MLB pitcher and they have talent in the system ( Brown and Taylor) to replace Ibanez and Werth when they go....( I don't think the Phils will pay Werth the money he wants after this year).

 
Darth Cheney said:
The Phils have set themselves up for the next few years. Lee at the salary he's getting is a bargain. Drabek looks to be a future MLB pitcher and they have talent in the system ( Brown and Taylor) to replace Ibanez and Werth when they go....( I don't think the Phils will pay Werth the money he wants after this year).
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Werth is signed for next year. He's not a FA until 2011.The Phils biggest decision this offseason is whether to pick up Feliz's 5M option and whether to re-sign Pedro. All the other FAs are bench player and middle relievers.
 
Dynasty. This team is so much better this year than it was last. Myers and Moyer were the #2/#3 pitches last year and freakin Chris Coste was the DH. Come 'on Man!

 
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