Pick strategy from the #1 spot (1 Viewer)

[JAMMIN]

Obviously you get your choice of LJ,SA, or LT. I am sort of wondering what people are thinking for the #24 and #25 picks. I am guessing you have to draft a WR and RB combo. Looks like Boldin/Chambers/Moss/Ward/Wayne are the WR's that will there and RB's such as Parker/Dunn/J. Jones/K. Jones/J. Lew. With the likes of these RB's I would think WR/WR here would not be that bad.

Any thoughts.

 

[creeps1313]

Im starting to agree with you. I have done a few mock drafts already...a couple that were good and a couple that were jokes...and I have noticed that there is a large group of RBs still available in the 5th round or later. Now most of those are injury prone guys, so it is a bit of a risk, but if you can get a couple it might work out nice.

 

[John Mamula]

completely depends on lienup requirement and scoring system.

 

[JAMMIN]

sorry I should have added

start 1QB 2rb 3WR/TE 1PK 1 Def

1 pt per 10 yd rush/rec 25 yd Pass

6 points per td

1 pt per reception after 3

Bonus for 100+ yds

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Obviously you get your choice of LJ,SA, or LT. I am sort of wondering what people are thinking for the #24 and #25 picks. I am guessing you have to draft a WR and RB combo. Looks like Boldin/Chambers/Moss/Ward/Wayne are the WR's that will there and RB's such as Parker/Dunn/J. Jones/K. Jones/J. Lew. With the likes of these RB's I would think WR/WR here would not be that bad.

Any thoughts.

1. Take LJ, sit back and count your winnings2. Grab an RB2 and RB3...Parker and Kev Jones with lots of upside work very well here...there will be lots of WR on the 4th/5th turn...you could just take Parker and also grab a WR like Moss....imagine LJ and R.Moss on the same team...it's just not fair.

WR/WR...is a no no though.

 

[nittanylion]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=246784

Visit this interesting strategy thread started by wannabe in the AC Forum. The first post links pretty much every other post in the thread to the specific strategy topics being covered. You'll find some excellent theory and analysis about what to do out of the #1 Slot...

Consider the option of trading down. Twice. If you're trading out of the #1 Slot this year, you should be trying to work deals with the Teams in the #4 and # 5 Slots - you're working your way down into Portis/Tiki territory and giving the guy with those options the chance to draft his choice of the 'Big 3' he's just missing out on with his current pick. Unless you're dealing with a savvy drafter, you ought to be able to talk this Team into giving up plenty of real estate for this opportunity.

Your second trade is to move into the last 4 picks of the 1st Round, or out of the 1st round entirely. Once again, you are affording someone sifting through less than stellar options the opportunity to grab Portis/Tiki (or even SJax, who's on the rise as we speak). You're trying to sell them a Slot where there are still obvious standout picks, as opposed to having to weigh options and analyze between not only a crew of players, but between positions. Once again, if you are a halfway decent salesman, and not dealing with FantasyEinstien, you should be able to walk away with a bundle in return - both extra picks in the 1st half rounds of the draft, as well as in-round improvements in draft position.

You don't have the 1st overall pick any more, but you more than make up for it in the material gained by having more and better picks than anyone else in your League for the first 8-12 Rds of the Draft - use your advantage to build a core which will weather the storm of an entire season, as opposed to just building around one player with picks 24,25 and 48, 49 (your normal 2-5 picks in a 12 team serpentine)...

Although this is a strategy I've employed in the past with success, it's not for everyone (it can be very difficult to part with that pick, and I can't blame anyone for wanting to use it), this is just a contrarian idea for chewing on considering what to do with the pick besides just using it. Personally, I feel it has more value as a trade commodity, and if you can trade down, and then out, of the first round, the amount of material you gain can go a long way towards winning a League Title, provided you feel you are a decent drafter...

 

[J-Money]

I did a mock where I ended up with the #1 pick. I went LJ and then there wuz a run of about 17 more rb's picked before people started taking the top wr's... I ended up taking Peyton Manning with my #2 pick and didn't like any of the rb's left to take with a 3rd round pick (figured i could get them later) so I took chambers cuz i wanted a wr I really like this year. It seemed like there was always a run on the next tier or rbs i wanted 10 or so picks befre me, so my rbs ended up being LJ, C-Mart and their backups as handcuffs (I had someone else too, but those woulda been my starters and I don't remember who it was). It was horrible, I definitely don't want the #1 spot!

 

[diesel7982]

sorry I should have added

start 1QB 2rb 3WR/TE 1PK 1 Def

1 pt per 10 yd rush/rec 25 yd Pass

6 points per td

1 pt per reception after 3

Bonus for 100+ yds

Clarify this for us:Are Pass TDs worth 6 points?

You get 1 pt for every reception after 3, per game?

Whats this bonus for 100+ yards? How much is the bonus? Does this apply for only rush/rec yards, or for passing yards also?

Im not sure why anyone is giving an answer without knowing what this "bonus" is.

Without the bonus there, Id say you take Manning, and a WR like Boldin.

 

[Spiderman]

I did a mock where I ended up with the #1 pick. I went LJ and then there wuz a run of about 17 more rb's picked before people started taking the top wr's... I ended up taking Peyton Manning with my #2 pick and didn't like any of the rb's left to take with a 3rd round pick (figured i could get them later) so I took chambers cuz i wanted a wr I really like this year. It seemed like there was always a run on the next tier or rbs i wanted 10 or so picks befre me, so my rbs ended up being LJ, C-Mart and their backups as handcuffs (I had someone else too, but those woulda been my starters and I don't remember who it was). It was horrible, I definitely don't want the #1 spot!

What kind of league are you in where the best QB in the NFL is available at pick #24 ?

 

[Sigfawn]

LJ

Boldin

Harrison

Then I go Dillon/Foster/Benson/Deuce in 4/5. Then grab Crumpler/Evans in 6/7. Then Kennison/Bigben/Green in 8-9.

With one stud RB, you can have a weaker RB2. You can then lock up the best WR combo in the league, along with a top 5 TE. Get value at the RB2/QB slot and you'll be fine.

 

[Sigfawn]

I did a mock where I ended up with the #1 pick.  I went LJ and then there wuz a run of about 17 more rb's picked before people started taking the top wr's... I ended up taking Peyton Manning with my #2 pick and didn't like any of the rb's left to take with a 3rd round pick (figured i could get them later) so I took chambers cuz i wanted a wr I really like this year.  It seemed like there was always a run on the next tier or rbs i wanted 10 or so picks befre me, so my rbs ended up being LJ, C-Mart and their backups as handcuffs (I had someone else too, but those woulda been my starters and I don't remember who it was).  It was horrible, I definitely don't want the #1 spot!

What kind of league are you in where the best QB in the NFL is available at pick #24 ?

Money leagues.

 

[John Mamula]

I did a mock where I ended up with the #1 pick.  I went LJ and then there wuz a run of about 17 more rb's picked before people started taking the top wr's... I ended up taking Peyton Manning with my #2 pick and didn't like any of the rb's left to take with a 3rd round pick (figured i could get them later) so I took chambers cuz i wanted a wr I really like this year.  It seemed like there was always a run on the next tier or rbs i wanted 10 or so picks befre me, so my rbs ended up being LJ, C-Mart and their backups as handcuffs (I had someone else too, but those woulda been my starters and I don't remember who it was).  It was horrible, I definitely don't want the #1 spot!

What kind of league are you in where the best QB in the NFL is available at pick #24 ?

i actually find there is a negative correlation between the more competitive a league is and the earlier a QB goes in a draft.

 

[Spiderman]

I did a mock where I ended up with the #1 pick.  I went LJ and then there wuz a run of about 17 more rb's picked before people started taking the top wr's... I ended up taking Peyton Manning with my #2 pick and didn't like any of the rb's left to take with a 3rd round pick (figured i could get them later) so I took chambers cuz i wanted a wr I really like this year.  It seemed like there was always a run on the next tier or rbs i wanted 10 or so picks befre me, so my rbs ended up being LJ, C-Mart and their backups as handcuffs (I had someone else too, but those woulda been my starters and I don't remember who it was).  It was horrible, I definitely don't want the #1 spot!

What kind of league are you in where the best QB in the NFL is available at pick #24 ?

i actually find there is a negative correlation between the more competitive a league is and the earlier a QB goes in a draft.

So, your theory is that drafting a QB early is not smart ? In principle, I agree with you that RB's should be the top priority, but if you're choosing between Manning and the 9th best RB, I think that's a close call.

 

[John Mamula]

I did a mock where I ended up with the #1 pick.  I went LJ and then there wuz a run of about 17 more rb's picked before people started taking the top wr's... I ended up taking Peyton Manning with my #2 pick and didn't like any of the rb's left to take with a 3rd round pick (figured i could get them later) so I took chambers cuz i wanted a wr I really like this year.  It seemed like there was always a run on the next tier or rbs i wanted 10 or so picks befre me, so my rbs ended up being LJ, C-Mart and their backups as handcuffs (I had someone else too, but those woulda been my starters and I don't remember who it was).  It was horrible, I definitely don't want the #1 spot!

What kind of league are you in where the best QB in the NFL is available at pick #24 ?

i actually find there is a negative correlation between the more competitive a league is and the earlier a QB goes in a draft.

So, your theory is that drafting a QB early is not smart ? In principle, I agree with you that RB's should be the top priority, but if you're choosing between Manning and the 9th best RB, I think that's a close call.

i don't think it is close at all, really.

 

[Sigfawn]

I did a mock where I ended up with the #1 pick.  I went LJ and then there wuz a run of about 17 more rb's picked before people started taking the top wr's... I ended up taking Peyton Manning with my #2 pick and didn't like any of the rb's left to take with a 3rd round pick (figured i could get them later) so I took chambers cuz i wanted a wr I really like this year.  It seemed like there was always a run on the next tier or rbs i wanted 10 or so picks befre me, so my rbs ended up being LJ, C-Mart and their backups as handcuffs (I had someone else too, but those woulda been my starters and I don't remember who it was).  It was horrible, I definitely don't want the #1 spot!

What kind of league are you in where the best QB in the NFL is available at pick #24 ?

i actually find there is a negative correlation between the more competitive a league is and the earlier a QB goes in a draft.

So, your theory is that drafting a QB early is not smart ? In principle, I agree with you that RB's should be the top priority, but if you're choosing between Manning and the 9th best RB, I think that's a close call.

Ronnie Brown (currently RB9 by ADP) or Manning.You're right verryyyy tough call.

 

[J-Money]

I did a mock where I ended up with the #1 pick.  I went LJ and then there wuz a run of about 17 more rb's picked before people started taking the top wr's... I ended up taking Peyton Manning with my #2 pick and didn't like any of the rb's left to take with a 3rd round pick (figured i could get them later) so I took chambers cuz i wanted a wr I really like this year.  It seemed like there was always a run on the next tier or rbs i wanted 10 or so picks befre me, so my rbs ended up being LJ, C-Mart and their backups as handcuffs (I had someone else too, but those woulda been my starters and I don't remember who it was).  It was horrible, I definitely don't want the #1 spot!

What kind of league are you in where the best QB in the NFL is available at pick #24 ?

Sorry, It was a PPR Mock so there was emphasis on the top wr's early, but i can't explain the rediculous run on rb's to start the draft...I agree manning should have went earlier, before guys like FWP and those of his ilk :shocking: I can only hope that when my money league draft comes around that i can get LJ then Manning, cuz I know my league mates won't go RB for the top 18 picks in a row so I know i could get a better #2 than c-mart

 

[JAMMIN]

6 pt per td for everyone

Yes 1 pt per rec after 3 in a game.

Bonus is like 4-5 points for a 100+ yd game. I think it goes up to 7 at 130+ and 10 at 150.

 

[-OZ-]

I really like what I've seen in my drafts from the #1 spot so far.

In a draft just conducted, the #1 pick landed LJ, McGahee and Marvin. Very nice IMO.

I've seen SA, Boldin, Gates, but that is a little risky IMO. In that draft I had the #2 spot and got LJ, Marvin, KJones.

I'd be very pleased with LT or LJ, Marvin and either KJ or McGahee.

 

[JAMMIN]

I just could not draft a guy like K. Jones or ever JJones I mean these guys were busts last year in my opinion. Willie Parker does not score enough so why would I draft these guys above a guy like Boldin/Moss/Chambers or Harrison. The way I look at it by #24 there could be 14+rb's drafted.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=246784

Visit this interesting strategy thread started by wannabe in the AC Forum. The first post links pretty much every other post in the thread to the specific strategy topics being covered. You'll find some excellent theory and analysis about what to do out of the #1 Slot...

Consider the option of trading down. Twice. If you're trading out of the #1 Slot this year, you should be trying to work deals with the Teams in the #4 and # 5 Slots - you're working your way down into Portis/Tiki territory and giving the guy with those options the chance to draft his choice of the 'Big 3' he's just missing out on with his current pick. Unless you're dealing with a savvy drafter, you ought to be able to talk this Team into giving up plenty of real estate for this opportunity.

Your second trade is to move into the last 4 picks of the 1st Round, or out of the 1st round entirely. Once again, you are affording someone sifting through less than stellar options the opportunity to grab Portis/Tiki (or even SJax, who's on the rise as we speak). You're trying to sell them a Slot where there are still obvious standout picks, as opposed to having to weigh options and analyze between not only a crew of players, but between positions. Once again, if you are a halfway decent salesman, and not dealing with FantasyEinstien, you should be able to walk away with a bundle in return - both extra picks in the 1st half rounds of the draft, as well as in-round improvements in draft position.

You don't have the 1st overall pick any more, but you more than make up for it in the material gained by having more and better picks than anyone else in your League for the first 8-12 Rds of the Draft - use your advantage to build a core which will weather the storm of an entire season, as opposed to just building around one player with picks 24,25 and 48, 49 (your normal 2-5 picks in a 12 team serpentine)...

Although this is a strategy I've employed in the past with success, it's not for everyone (it can be very difficult to part with that pick, and I can't blame anyone for wanting to use it), this is just a contrarian idea for chewing on considering what to do with the pick besides just using it. Personally, I feel it has more value as a trade commodity, and if you can trade down, and then out, of the first round, the amount of material you gain can go a long way towards winning a League Title, provided you feel you are a decent drafter...

awesome post (much better than just )