Picking from the #1 spot (1 Viewer)

[death of the cool]

For those guys that got lucky and drew the 1st pick.....What is your strategy after the 1st round?

So far what I am seeing:

1.01 - Of course here it is either C.Johnson or Peterson. We can save that debate for another thread. You will be getting one of the elite backs, so dont beat yourself up too much with this pick. Worry about the rest of your draft. For the sake of this thread let say I take

1.01 - C.Johnson- RB - you cant go wrong with either.

2.12/3.01 turn - At the turn I have noticed that the elite WR's are usually gone. The best on the board are usually D.Jackson, M.Colston, and S.Rice. The problem with passing on WR, is that by the time it gets back to you at the end of the 4th....things are very thin. I almost feel compelled to take one of them. As far as QB goes, Brady and Romo are usually both on the board...so if you want an elite QB, it is here or you do not get one. There is usually good value at RB with Charles, Mathews, Grant usually still on the board. At this point I think you have two paths you can take. You can select a top QB with a WR, and insure that you have a solid foundation at each position....or you can gamble a bit and take a high upside RB with a WR. I am less of a gambler this early in the draft, so I take:

2.12 - M.Colston - I think he is more reliable than Jackson who scored on a ton of bombs.

3.01 - T.Romo- Some may say this is a little early for Romo, but he will not make it back to you from this position...This is where just going off ADP can bite you. If you like him, take him. I also think Romo's ADP will start creeping up as the drafts get closer.

My other scenario for this round would have been Jamal Charles. I salivate at thinking what this kid could do and the easy schedule he has, yet I worry about T.Jones stealing TD's and Charles injury risk. As a Longhorn fan I got to watch this kid in college, and he always seemed to be dinged up...

4.12/5.01 turn - At this turn I am usually looking at TE. I always love to have an elite TE.....yes I am that guy that was in your league that killed you with Gonzalez for years and Gates for a few more. I usually have A.Gates available to me. If he is not there, V.Davis and J.Witten are usually there as well. For the other pick it depends on which way i went at the turn before. If I took an elite QB, I am looking at another WR/RB...Some guys that I like that I see on the board here a lot is Ochocinco, Mike Sims-Walker, and D.Bowe. If I didn't get my QB earlier....I am shark targeting K.Kolb in this round, because he will not make it back to me. I will be sure to back him up with a reliable QB (Manning, Palmer)

my picks:

4.12 - A.Gates- If V.Jackson does hold out, Gates numbers may explode

5.01 - Chad Ochocinco Went with the more known factor over the other 2 less experienced WR.

6.12/7.01 turn-This next turn is where I pick up some RB depth. I am hoping the depth of RB in the middle rounds is still here. A.Bradshaw is really the guy I want on this turn. Call it the gut, but I think this kid has a big year.(and I am a Cowboy fan). I would also like to get a guy that I think will bounce back....Marion Barber. He was playing last year with a hole in his quad (ouch), so I think he will be a solid value here. I passed on RB early, so I need to hit on one of these guys. If one is gone, I may look to M. Bush who could have a good year in Oakland.

my picks:

6.12 - Marion Barber Little higher than his ADP, but I do have other options.

7.01 - A.Bradshaw I have that feeling this kid has a big year.

I need to figure my plan for the later rounds....in which I will look to add a solid backup QB like Manning (or maybe Big Ben...hmmmmm) and I need to find that late round break out WR.

so to summarize:

1.01 - C. Johnson

2.12 - M. Colston

3.01 - T.Romo

4.12 - A.Gates

5.01 - C.Johnson (er....Ochocinco)

6.12 - M.Barber

7.01 - A.Bradshaw

 

[mulehead]

Death,

I think this has the makings of a great team. In the mocks that I've participated in, I've found it difficult to shy away from grabbing two receivers at the 2nd/3rd turn, or possibly a receiver and DeAngelo if he makes it that far. I've been lucky to score Romo at the 4th/5th turn in some mocks, which is AWESOME value (would probably need a moist towel or towelette and a fresh pair of underwear if that happened in a real draft), but generally find if I don't take a QB here, I am waiting to pick up Kolb/Cutler/Flacco/Favre or something of the sort later. I would take Romo in the third if I knew I could get Ocho Cinco in the fourth. Not always the case in some mocks I've seen.

Mulehead

 

[I was in the pool]

Looks good - Colston is not on my watchlist for 2010, but that may just be me. Everything else seems like a good plan.

 

[dcgangstas]

That's a pretty good looking team.

However, 2.12 may be a bit early for Colston. They are a lot of mouths to feed in that Saints passing game, and there are times when Colston really isn't that involved in the offense. I've seen games where Brees has 4 TD passes, and Colston has 3 catches for 40 yards and 0 TDs. I'd prefer Greg Jennings or DeSean Jackson personally.

3.01 is fine for Romo; I think the guy is in for a career year as long as Doug Free can maintain at LT. If Alex Barron gets anywhere near the starting lineup, all bets are off.

If you can get Gates at 4.12, you should be drafting with a ski mask and a gun. Take him and run. His ADP is around 43 or so in a 12 team league.

I think your draft strategy is solid. Have a great season.

 

[PewterFan]

However, 2.12 may be a bit early for Colston.

Agreed. Definitely get a WR here though. Someone more reliable like Reggie Wayne.

 

[Eradicator]

Because you are obviously taking a RB #1, my nightmare scenario is a run on QB/WR in which all of these tiers are gone at the 2/3 turn-

WR

A. Johnson

R. Moss

R. Wayne

L Fitzgerald

C. Johnson

M. Austin

R. White

B. Marshall

QB

A. Rodgers

D. Brees

P. Manning

T. Romo

T. Brady

There are definitely no QB's I'll reach for here (though some might argue for Rivers or Schaub) and I'd feel like I'm reaching for the next tier of WR's (the aforementioned Jennings/Colston/Rice).

Current ADP info on MFL for my 12 team league settings indicate my fears could be realized, so I'll be ecstatic with something like a Romo/Marshall combo.

Note: Don't put too much stock into what you get in mock drafts. I've found you always end up with great teams in mocks and those players are never there when it comes draft time.

 

[death of the cool]

Because you are obviously taking a RB #1, my nightmare scenario is a run on QB/WR in which all of these tiers are gone at the 2/3 turn-WRA. JohnsonR. MossR. WayneL FitzgeraldC. JohnsonM. AustinR. WhiteB. MarshallQBA. RodgersD. BreesP. ManningT. RomoT. BradyThere are definitely no QB's I'll reach for here (though some might argue for Rivers or Schaub) and I'd feel like I'm reaching for the next tier of WR's (the aforementioned Jennings/Colston/Rice). Current ADP info on MFL for my 12 team league settings indicate my fears could be realized, so I'll be ecstatic with something like a Romo/Marshall combo.Note: Don't put too much stock into what you get in mock drafts. I've found you always end up with great teams in mocks and those players are never there when it comes draft time.

This is the exact thing I am worried about as well.

 

[Sopranos25]

Because you are obviously taking a RB #1, my nightmare scenario is a run on QB/WR in which all of these tiers are gone at the 2/3 turn-WRA. JohnsonR. MossR. WayneL FitzgeraldC. JohnsonM. AustinR. WhiteB. MarshallQBA. RodgersD. BreesP. ManningT. RomoT. BradyThere are definitely no QB's I'll reach for here (though some might argue for Rivers or Schaub) and I'd feel like I'm reaching for the next tier of WR's (the aforementioned Jennings/Colston/Rice). Current ADP info on MFL for my 12 team league settings indicate my fears could be realized, so I'll be ecstatic with something like a Romo/Marshall combo.Note: Don't put too much stock into what you get in mock drafts. I've found you always end up with great teams in mocks and those players are never there when it comes draft time.

This is the exact thing I am worried about as well.

If that happens take Colston an by the numbers there will be a top 10 rb left Take a QB later and have a better RB than Barber.

 

[badmother]

No way you get Barber 6/12 Bradshaw 7/1, there values are going up once preseason starts.

 

[death of the cool]

No way you get Barber 6/12 Bradshaw 7/1, there values are going up once preseason starts.

That is very possible, but all I have to go on is their current ADP. Right now Bradshaw is at 7.08....which is very possible at the turn. Barber is a bit of a stretch even right now. I will also consider M.Bush (8.04) as well.and if those guys are moving up, it means somebody is moving down.

 

[shnikies]

I have the #1 in a .5 PPR and I'll be taking CJ for sure. When it comes to the 2.12/3.1 I don't think you need to take a receiver just to take one. I'll be taking best available and if White or Jennings fall to me I'll be taking one of them but Colston doesn't thrill me there. I think you can go RB, RB, RB and then in the next 4 rounds go WR with upside ala Crabtree, Nicks, Walker, Maclin. I really like the young middle tier this year, one or more will end up being an elite receiver this year. Then go QBBC in the later (9-13) rounds like Palmer, McNabb, Favre, etc. There are plenty of tight ends you can take late like Cooley and Miller and call me a homer but Olsen's role has been over-analyzed. Martz has never had a tight end with his skills and he will adapt his offense to his personnel. He will at least be involved in the red zone, they don't have a receiver taller than 6 feet and Olsen is 6'5".

Edit: This is assuming there is a flex and that you can start 3 running backs.

 

[death of the cool]

I have the #1 in a .5 PPR and I'll be taking CJ for sure. When it comes to the 2.12/3.1 I don't think you need to take a receiver just to take one. I'll be taking best available and if White or Jennings fall to me I'll be taking one of them but Colston doesn't thrill me there. I think you can go RB, RB, RB and then in the next 4 rounds go WR with upside ala Crabtree, Nicks, Walker, Maclin. I really like the young middle tier this year, one or more will end up being an elite receiver this year. Then go QBBC in the later (9-13) rounds like Palmer, McNabb, Favre, etc. There are plenty of tight ends you can take late like Cooley and Miller and call me a homer but Olsen's role has been over-analyzed. Martz has never had a tight end with his skills and he will adapt his offense to his personnel. He will at least be involved in the red zone, they don't have a receiver taller than 6 feet and Olsen is 6'5".Edit: This is assuming there is a flex and that you can start 3 running backs.

I would love Crabtree to be available at the 4.12/5.01 turn, but I have not seen it yet. His ADP is mid 4th right now. I agree that Colston is a bit of a stretch at that pick

 

[shnikies]

It doesn't have to be Crabtree but any of the young middle tier receivers that haven't gotten the brand name bump yet.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I actually like the 4th/5th round RBs, which gives me confidence in taking WR/WR or WR/QB at the 2/3 turn. My league is pretty RB heavy, especially early, so I think I can get at least White/Jennings at the turn, and then come back with two of Best/Addai/McCoy at the 4/5 turn. I'd rather have CJ/Best/McCoy/White/Jennings than CJ/Benson/Mathews/Nicks/MSW in PPR, but maybe that's just me.

 

[shnikies]

I actually like the 4th/5th round RBs, which gives me confidence in taking WR/WR or WR/QB at the 2/3 turn. My league is pretty RB heavy, especially early, so I think I can get at least White/Jennings at the turn, and then come back with two of Best/Addai/McCoy at the 4/5 turn. I'd rather have CJ/Best/McCoy/White/Jennings than CJ/Benson/Mathews/Nicks/MSW in PPR, but maybe that's just me.

That's assuming White and Jennings are there which isn't likely in a PPR unless you're talking about a 10 team league which is a whole different ball game.

 

[fightingillini]

Because you are obviously taking a RB #1, my nightmare scenario is a run on QB/WR in which all of these tiers are gone at the 2/3 turn-WRA. JohnsonR. MossR. WayneL FitzgeraldC. JohnsonM. AustinR. WhiteB. MarshallQBA. RodgersD. BreesP. ManningT. RomoT. BradyThere are definitely no QB's I'll reach for here (though some might argue for Rivers or Schaub) and I'd feel like I'm reaching for the next tier of WR's (the aforementioned Jennings/Colston/Rice). Current ADP info on MFL for my 12 team league settings indicate my fears could be realized, so I'll be ecstatic with something like a Romo/Marshall combo.Note: Don't put too much stock into what you get in mock drafts. I've found you always end up with great teams in mocks and those players are never there when it comes draft time.

If all those QBs and WRs are off the board, that means that 5 QBs and 8WRs are off the board, and only 10RBs. So you take a RB2 and the best WR left.......you're looking at maybe DAngelo and Jennings. A CJ/DWill backfield is deadly.For me it's simple.....you take CJ #1, then you take the 2 BPA at the 2/3 turn. If I can snag Romo and R White, I am thrilled.

 

[bagger]

This is the first time in years I have the #1 slot. What I will be discussing is standard scoring leagues with PPR and starting 3 WRs (no flex). Everything else normal.

First, I have mocked this spot like a maniac in the Draft Dominator. I have tweaked with picks until I got a 99/90/85 rating in the Rank My Team from Dodds' projections. All rankings are Dodds' rankings per the Rate My Team function. All draft picks are within a reasonable range of ADP (with the CPU mocking off ADP as their picks). Here is what I come up with...

1.01 - (RB1) C Johnson. Easy enough.

2.12 - (QB4) T Romo. I have not drafted a QB before the 7th round in the last 5 years. However, at this position there is really no WR to take that is compelling enough at this point. The reason is that there is so much good RB and WR depth in the 5-10 rounds you are better off getting a stud QB this year out of the #1 spot due to the luxury of being able to get C Johnson and another very good RB or WR on the turn.

3.01 - (RB9) I go RB here with J Addai. If you really love a WR or RB who drops grab either here. It is really best value available but usually that best value is still RB from what I have seen. Depth at RB at this point is key as we can get lots of WR depth later as you will see. **Edited to replace Charles with Addai...do not advocate taking Charles here any longer.

4.12 - (TE3) J Witten. Again I have not drafted a TE this early in forever as I usually wait to grab a sleeper stud in the 7-8 rounds. Out of the 1 slot this year grab an elite TE. The dropoff at this position and the depth elsewhere will allow you to load up on WR as I am about to do. I know it seems nuts to be 4 rounds in a PPR league with no WRs when you start 3, but you are now about to witness the strength of street knowledge.

5.01 - (WR17) P Harvin. Start hitting WRs hard and heavy. This is the group that the RMT function rates as "slightly below par" however we will make up for that with depth. In essence we will get 6 top 36 WRs who we can mix and match covering bye weeks, likely never having dominating performances but doing well enough that our RBs, TE, and QB will easily outpace opponents on a weekly basis. That's right. 6 with your first being taken in the 5th.

6.12 - (WR22) T Owens. Not a bad WR2 considering our team to date.

7.01 - (WR19) S Moss. Solid starting 3 WRs...but we're not done yet.

8.12 - (RB42) Clinton Portis. I like Portis a lot more than Dodds does here. If you don't like Portis grab another RB you like who is available. Portis as your #3 RB is tough to beat, but you really don't need your 3rd RB until now with your starting 2. I love the RB depth in the 8th round. You have Portis, LT, Sproles (who can be had later but if you feel compelled to grab him at the end of the 8th do it). Any of these is a great #3 RB. **I would also add T Jones here as a potential RB3 who will easily outperform this draft slot.

9.01 - (WR29) Jabar Gaffney. As you can see by the rankings, your #4 WR is still a starting caliber WR every week in a 12 team league. This means your bench will give you better than last starter production at your "weakest" position.

10.12 - (RB26) D Sproles. Phenomenal #4 RB with upside if Matthews does not pan out. If you grabbed Sproles in the 8th get another RB with upside here. Nothing boring. Get an RB who can make an IMPACT if something breaks right. A great candidate is A Foster on HOU. ADP is ~12th round and he could emerge as the man and be a top 20 RB if things break right. I almost like Sproles/Foster better for crazy upside than a Portis/Sproles combo that may not be there. Bottom line is do not reach for your backup RBs as you need WRs stacked in the mid rounds. Value will fall at RB this year more than any other I remember for RB3.

11.01 - (WR37) J Cotchery. Our 5th WR is just outside a starting WR ranking. This means we can have two top WRs out on byes or injuries at a time and still get starting WR caliber performances. We can actually get a better ranked WR later too, but Cotchery's ADP is right here so we can maximize value by picking a slightly lower ranked WR here and getting a better one later.

12.12 - (TE17) G Olsen. I actually like Olsen a lot more than Dodds does, and is a great fill in for Witten for bye week and/or potential injuries.

13.01 - (QB17) A Smith. Really take best QB here, but Smith has a great matchup on Romo's bye. Really the QB to target to back up Romo as he has great potential to outperform his ranking.

14.12 - (WR33) D Mason. You now have 6 WRs who are ranked 37th or better. This is a great feat considering we waited until 5.01 as our first WR. Mason is boring, old, Boldin is in front of him, and he goes late in drafts. But he will still be productive in a PPR league. Sneaky 6th WR.

15.01 - (DT5) Miami Dolphins. Solid D that is going later in drafts than they should. They pair well with Tennessee.

16.12 - (DT13) Tenneessee Titans.

17.01 - (PK9) D Buehler. Starting PK of the Cowboys will get a lot of opportunities. You can get an average PK with some upside very late in the draft. No need to go earlier.

18.12 - (WR54) J Jones. This is really just BPA. Take someone you think is young and can outperform and hit a home run in the right opportunity. Getting someone older who you already know what you can expect is a wasted pick. You'll likely drop this person first anyway so you may as well swing for the fences.

Boom goes the dynamite. That's how you draft out of the 1 slot.

 

[bagger]

Because you are obviously taking a RB #1, my nightmare scenario is a run on QB/WR in which all of these tiers are gone at the 2/3 turn-WRA. JohnsonR. MossR. WayneL FitzgeraldC. JohnsonM. AustinR. WhiteB. MarshallQBA. RodgersD. BreesP. ManningT. RomoT. BradyThere are definitely no QB's I'll reach for here (though some might argue for Rivers or Schaub) and I'd feel like I'm reaching for the next tier of WR's (the aforementioned Jennings/Colston/Rice). Current ADP info on MFL for my 12 team league settings indicate my fears could be realized, so I'll be ecstatic with something like a Romo/Marshall combo.Note: Don't put too much stock into what you get in mock drafts. I've found you always end up with great teams in mocks and those players are never there when it comes draft time.

I'll be shocked if 5 QBs go off the board before 2.12. However if they do, you now go for BPA and grab a WR/RB and wait on a QB for a couple rounds. Usually it is 3 at most.Getting Jennings and a RB would be a great consolation prize and then look at grabbing your elite TE and a 2nd tier QB on the 4/5 turn or potentially wait longer on a QB and get more core depth.

 

[Hawkeyes1922]

I did a mock draft today on CBSSportsline. There were a couple differences:

1) Only 10 teams involved since the league where I draft #1 only has 10 teams

2) Non-PPR scoring

But a quick rundown of who I took in the first few rounds:

1.01 Chris Johnson, RB, TEN

2.10 Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI

3.01 Calvin Johnson, WR, DET

4.10 Phillip Rivers, QB, SD

5.01 Antonio Gates, TE, SD

6.10 Chris Wells, RB, ARI

7.01 Laurence Maroney, RB, NE

From there I don't remember the order, but I filled out a 14-man roster with Donovan McNabb, Montario Hardesty, Santana Moss, Dez Bryant, Golden Tate, Stephen Gostkowski, and the Vikings D.

Obviously, with it being reduced to only a 10-team draft the talent pool is much different, but if my draft turns out anything close to this in a couple weeks, I will be thrilled. Good luck to everyone drafting out of the #1 slot!!

 

[bagger]

I did a mock draft today on CBSSportsline. There were a couple differences:1) Only 10 teams involved since the league where I draft #1 only has 10 teams2) Non-PPR scoringBut a quick rundown of who I took in the first few rounds:1.01 Chris Johnson, RB, TEN2.10 Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI3.01 Calvin Johnson, WR, DET4.10 Phillip Rivers, QB, SD5.01 Antonio Gates, TE, SD6.10 Chris Wells, RB, ARI7.01 Laurence Maroney, RB, NEFrom there I don't remember the order, but I filled out a 14-man roster with Donovan McNabb, Montario Hardesty, Santana Moss, Dez Bryant, Golden Tate, Stephen Gostkowski, and the Vikings D.Obviously, with it being reduced to only a 10-team draft the talent pool is much different, but if my draft turns out anything close to this in a couple weeks, I will be thrilled. Good luck to everyone drafting out of the #1 slot!!

Your top 6 picks look great. I would be very happy with that. But I know you can get better value than Maroney at 7.01. Try some different things. Get a 3rd WR for depth. Really anyone other than Maroney.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

I see Marshall or Calvin Johnson available at the end of round two more often than not.

 

[death of the cool]

good stuff in this thread....

I just did a few mocks on ESPN, and the ESPN rankings lead many people into going RB heavy.

at the 2.12/3.01 turn I was able to get Calvin Johnson and T.Romo

I will take that!

 

[bagger]

Made some edits to my mock.

There has to be more people drafting from #1 who have some other ideas.

 

[steelerfan1]

what do you think best for us playing in 3rd round reversal leagues.

seems we get to watch 2 runs helplessly with probably wr's and top qb's in the 2nd and then the 2nd teir qb's in the 3rd.

i hate finishing runs but needing 3 wr's and having a qb flex available am a bit stuck.

 

[death of the cool]

The more times I do mocks on ESPN....the more I get an elite QB and WR to fall to me at the 2.12/3.01 turn.

I have been getting

Brady/Romo at QB

and

Austin/R.White and even sometimes Calvin Johnson or B.Marshall at WR

If I can get any of those combos I take it, and look to add my 2nd RB (R.Brown, J.Addai)and TE (Gates, V.Davis) in 4.12/5.01.

1.01 C.Johnson

2.12 R.White

3.01 T.Brady

4.12 R.Brown

5.01 A.Gates

If I get that I will be pumped!

 

[Donny Loved Bowling]

Just completed a 12-team non-ppr draft from the #1 slot, here are my results:

1.01 C. Johnson

2.12 L. Fitzgerald

3.01 R. Wayne

4.12 A. Gates

5.01 M. Barber

6.12 A. Bradshaw

7.01 K. Kolb

8.12 J. Maclin

9.01 L. Tomlinson

10.12 J. Knox

11.01 A. Foster

12.12 M. Stafford

13.01 J. Carlson

14.12 Eagles D/ST

15.01 D. McCluster

16.12 M. Williams (TB)

17.01 R. Longwell

Your results may vary...

I was shocked to see Fitz fall into my lap - heard several guys talking before draft about how "worthless" Arizona players would be this year due to Leinart. My only real regret was not being able to pair Kolb with a more reliable backup QB. It also killed me to watch several players I coveted slip through the round but get gobbled up by the guy picking in the #2 slot right in front of me - he plucked Greene in the 2nd, Forsett in the 6th, Nicks in the 8th and Hardesty in the 12th. Most of the guys in this league have been playing for 5 years or more... all of them less than me, but still a reasonably experienced group of FF players.

I'm not posting this to draw "Rate My Team" commentary, although I am rather pleased with myself.

 

[KID]

Two days ago one of the leagues I am in had a 12 man draft where I picked from the 1 hole. Here is what I got:

1:01 CJ

2:12 Randy Moss

3:01 Roddy White

4:12 Stewart

5:01 85

6:12 Ryan

7:01 Bradshaw

8:12 Miller (Oak)

9:01 Maroney

10:12 Favre

11:01 49's

12:12 Foster

13:01 Gaffney

14:12 Buehler

RB heavy and QB heavy league. You never know what will fall to you, feeling pretty good about this team!

 

[Foureyes]

I got #1 draft slot last year and again this year, so I've got a little more experience that usual going in. 12 team performance non PPR with all TDs 6 pts, 13 round draft and start 1 QB 1RB 1 WR 2 flex 1 PK 1 defense. So there's no TE required (although the top 5-6 represent good value as WRs) and you can go 1:3, 2:2 or 3:1 with RBs and WRs.

A word about last year. I followed the perfect draft strategy to a tee and everything went wrong. "Rate my team" had me dominating, but every player I drafted (other than AP at 1.01) busted. In order, Portis, Megatron, McFadden, BEdwards, Cutler, ERoyal, Garrard, CTaylor (handcuff) and DHester all failed to live up to their draft potential. I also played a DSTBC (Green Bay and Arizona, as recommended by FBGs) and didn't particularly like it. FWIW, I dropped the entire team over the course of the season (except AP) and made the playoffs/finished second. This year, I expect a little bit more luck.

In drafting from the #1 slot this year, my strategy is going to be somewhat different. I've always waited as long as the draft allowed me (sometimes until round 7 or 8) to get a QB, but this year I'd like to get one of the second tier of QBs at the 2-3 turn. I'd love to get Romo or Brady there, but would settle for Schaub. Still undecided about whether I would take Rivers in that spot, but I think it's too high for a QB that lost his top wideout and his all-world pass receiving RB, and has a rookie RB behind him. If I don't get one of these guys, I'm going for best rated value picks at WR and RB. That's because the third tier of QBs has 6-8 guys who all look about the same in terms of production, and I'd rather draft one of them (or two) and get value at the 6-7 or 8-9 turns, rather than reach for one of them at the 4-5 turn.

For starters (and this is a topic for another thread) I'm looking for AP at 1.01 instead of CJ2K. I believe that the first round pick should be the guy least likely to screw up your team, regardless of where you're drafting. I see CJ as possibly having higher upside but being a little riskier, with AP being slightly safer and having a higher floor. I'm not going to dwell on it (too much) because barring an injury, both are likely to have very solid years.

My league tends to go heavy on QBs and RBs early, but not WRs. Last year, 4 QBs went in the first round, including Brees and Brady at 2 and 3 (Manning and Rodgers later). I expect the big three to be gone well before the end of the round. There's a very good chance that Brady, Romo and Schaub don't get back to me at the 2/3 turn. If one of them is there, I'll grab him along with the best available WR, since I only need to start one RB and very fewe WRs will be gone. Last year, I got my fourth ranked WR, Calvin, at this spot. If I start out AP/Moss/Romo I'll be a very happy camper. If a lot of WRs go in a run during round 2, and I think there's better value at RB, I'll go QB/RB at 2/3 and look for value from the next tier of WRs at the 4/5 turn. There are a lot of high upside, quality WRs in that category and I'm sure I'll be able to grab 4-5 of them over rounds 4-9 to go with my two stud RBs.

If Romo, Brady and Schaub are gone at the 2/3 turn (I give that a 40-60 chance), I'll go for best value at WR and RB (probably one of each, which is what I did last year). Depending how the 3rd and 4th rounds play out, I'll decide if I want to grab a QB at the 4/5 turn or wait longer. I feel pretty good about Cutler (and Rivers, but he'll definitely be gone), I'm not sure about Kolb, and by then we'll know if Favre is in the picture or not. Since at least 9-10 teams will have selected a QB by now, I'm very likely to wait on QB for the 6/7 turn. In addition to any of the guys I just mentioned, I'd target Roethlisberger/Ryan/McNabb.

I'm a big believer in letting the draft come to me, so my strategy for the second half will depend on how the first half goes. WRs and RBs will all be high upside players, since theres no chance I'll ever be inserting the Cotchery's and Julius Jones's of the world into my starting lineup. I'll take a backup QB, later if I got a stud at 2/3, earlier if I didn't. Looking at the group of ASmith/Flacco/VYoung, and I'll decide based on their matchups during the bye week of my starter. I'll try to grab my top ranked defense after 5-6 are off the board (round 11 or 12) and take a PK in the last round from a high scoring team (even though I like avoiding cold weather kickers, I've done well with Mason Crosby for a few years running).

I'm hoping "rate my team" looks at this years team and thinks I'm gonna dominate again. This time, I hope they're right.

 

[kutta]

I would be happy as all get-up if Fitz, Moss, and/or Wayne fell that far. How does that happen? If those guys are still there, who is being drafted?

 

[kutta]

I got #1 draft slot last year and again this year, so I've got a little more experience that usual going in. 12 team performance non PPR with all TDs 6 pts, 13 round draft and start 1 QB 1RB 1 WR 2 flex 1 PK 1 defense. So there's no TE required (although the top 5-6 represent good value as WRs) and you can go 1:3, 2:2 or 3:1 with RBs and WRs.

You really should talk to your league-mates and get your 13 round draft changed to an even number. The people drafting early have an advantage in an odd-number round draft, assuming you do a standard snake-type draft.

 

[LOCO]

So going rb/wr/wr is a bad idea? Seems like waiting on qb is ideal.

 

[rainram]

I like this thread and it pertains to me.

I had the 1st overall last year and went with MJD, and Chris Johnson made it back to me. I've learned early that you can never have too many RBs. Took Megatron at 3.01. At the 4/5 turn I got Ronne Brown and Dallas Clark. Got Ray Rice in the 6th. Went QBBC, with Palmer/Garrard...was a tough season at QB. I won due to my RBs and Dallas Clark. I also traded Rice for Randy Moss later in the year, which was a fair trade. The thing with RBs, is they give you leverage, and every year, those without solid RBs and/or depth, realize their value all too late.

Fast forward to this year...and in another league I got the first pick again. This league is different in that we have almost no bench! It's a PPR, with all TDs worth 6 pts. However, we start 2 RBs/2 WRs with only 1 Bench spot for each....the catch is that we have a "flex starter," which based on our scoring makes it almost automatic that it WILL be a RB....making our starting roster 1 QB, 3 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, etc...

1.01 - Chris Johnson

2/3 Turn - Grant or Jamaal Charles AND Romo

With their playoff schedules, if both Charles and Johnson make it through the season unscathed, I can possibly win a championship with them alone. But it could be hard passing on Grant's proven stability. Will have to see who's there anyway.

I'm a big QBBC guy....always have been. And it's intriguing this year with the number of viable starting QBs that can be had later. But in most of my mocks this is list of WRs I see gone:

AJ

Fitz

Moss

White

Austin

Wayne

Calvin Johnson

Jennings

Marshall/Colston are the only WRs I'd take here, but I like Romo as not only the safer pick, but with 6 TDs in my league I'd take him. Tough to pass on Marshall, but there are still some question marks with him, that aren't there with Romo. New team, QB, and I'm a huge proponent of looking ahead to playoff schedules and Marshall may be facing Revis. That's enough for me to lean towards Romo.

NOTE: IF I WERE IN A 3 WR LEAGUE, I DEFINATELY TAKE A WR HERE, AND PROBABLY GO RB/WR.

4/5 Turn - Best TE available, I keep seeing Finley/Davis/Witten AND best WR available

With my team looking like CJ, Grant/JC, Romo...I can grab a TOP 5 TE....sign me up. Some others in here are grabbing Gates at this spot. Even in the most amateur of leagues I don't see him making it to 4.12...Whatever the case may be, it's a good place to take a TE, and a Top 5 one will be there.

Then, barring some unreal value at another position, I gotta grab a WR. However, in my particular setup, I could very well go RB. Most teams will have 1 WR and will have 2 WR by the time it gets back to me...and we're only starting 2. I still have to draft/start 1 more RB...Someone like Ronnie Brown, Felix Jones, Jahvis Best are intereesting options. And the HUGE "IF"...if Brown can stay healthy, the trio of CJ, JC & Brown with their playoff schedules is downright scary for your opponents.

If I did go WR, there are the likes of: Maybe Ochocinco (doubtful though), Maybe Welker...and Crabtree, Harvin, Nicks, Walker, Ward, Harvin, T.O..

So After 5 Rounds it might look like:

CJ, JC/Grant, Romo, Finley/Davis/Witten, Ronnie Brown/Felix Jones...SOLID everywhere except WR, but guys like Maclin, Mike Wallace & Santana Moss are there later.

OR

CJ, JC/Grant, Romo, Finley/Davis/Witten, Crabtree/Nicks/Walker/T.O.....if Ochocinco is there at 5.01, it's a no-brainer for me, but not likely in my league.

NOTE: In a more common 3WR, 2 RB you might have:

CJ, Grant/JC, Marshall/Colston, Finley/Davis/Witten, & take your pick from the RBs/WRs above. And run a QBBC in the upcoming rounds.

From rounds 6-7 and beyond, it's difficult to project...you'll just have to start playing the value picks and seeing how the draft turns out.

My NIGHTMARE is if the Top 23 go like this:

RBs: CJ, AP, MJD, Rice, Gore, Steven Jackson, Mendenhall, Grant, Moreno, Jamaal Charles, Turner, Deangelo Williams

WRs: AJ, Fitz, Moss, White, Wayne, Austin, Jennings

QBs: Rogers, Manning, Brees, Romo

That leaves:

RB: Benson, Wells, Matthews, Addai, Greene

WRs: Marshall, Colston, Calvin Johnson

QBs: Brady, Schaub

Having to take two out of that group doesn't make me ecstatic. I would probably narrow it down to Calvin Johnson, Marshall, Benson and Greene...And I'd lean Calvin Johnson and Greene. Then get the Top 5 TE in the 4/5 turn (which seems to be there every single time I run this), and go QBBC.

KEYS TO PICKING FROM THE 1 SLOT:

- Hope CJ stays healthy and performs to expectations!!!!!!!!

- Don't miss/bust on the 2/3 Turn...Jamaal Charles makes it interesting though for me, with his playoff schedule. But Grant/Romo is a good way to go!!

- Find value from there on out all depending on you scoring system and starting lineup.

**Sorry, I know it was long, but I got carried away!

 

[Foureyes]

I got #1 draft slot last year and again this year, so I've got a little more experience that usual going in. 12 team performance non PPR with all TDs 6 pts, 13 round draft and start 1 QB 1RB 1 WR 2 flex 1 PK 1 defense. So there's no TE required (although the top 5-6 represent good value as WRs) and you can go 1:3, 2:2 or 3:1 with RBs and WRs.

You really should talk to your league-mates and get your 13 round draft changed to an even number. The people drafting early have an advantage in an odd-number round draft, assuming you do a standard snake-type draft.

I completely agree with you. A good number of owners draft a second D/ST to avoid a transaction fee later; I see this as a real guppy move (even though most of them are good, experienced FFers). I'm definitely not going to complain about it while I'm drafting from the 1 hole. Definitely go high upside with this pick, or wait and take my PK with this "BONUS" pick.

 

[Foureyes]

Looking through this thread, and doing a ton of mocks, two things surprise me...

1) That Romo and/or Brady make it to 2.12:

2) That such a high percentage of FBG regulars are eager to jump on a QB this early.

I thought I'd be in the minority when I decided I wanted to get one of the top QBs this year, rather than waiting on one to stock up on quality and depth at RB and WR. I know that the most popular strategy has been to draft based on VBD, wait on QB, and possibly go QBBC ti get QB1 numbers with later draftt picks.

I decided this was the year to try to go against the grain, hopefully screwing up my opponents who are used to seeing me load up at other positions in the early rounds. I'm surprised that this is a bandwagon that most of you guys are on!

Any thoughts or ideas why?? Just want to be as prepared as possible going into the draft...

 

[Donny Loved Bowling]

I would be happy as all get-up if Fitz, Moss, and/or Wayne fell that far. How does that happen? If those guys are still there, who is being drafted?

Since you asked, the first two rounds went like this:1: Johnson, Peterson, MJD, Rice, Gore, AJ, Turner, DeAngelo, Grant, Benson, Brees, SJax2: Manning, Mendy, Rodgers, Rivers, McCoy(!), Moss, Mathews, White, Austin, Colston, Greene, Fitz

 

[Rick James]

Here's the draft I put together picking #1 overall:

1) CJ

-no brainer

2) Deangelo Williams

3) Tom Brady

-10 WRs were taken before I got to my 2.12/3.1 picks, and Rodgers/Manning/Brees were gone. DJax was still there, and I think in retrospect I should have selected him. I wanted to get a WR since we have to start 3, but I don't want to reach for a Colston or Bolden, because I would just be picking the best of the rest instead of taking a top tier talent like DWill and Tom Brady.

Still...CJ, DWill, and Brady is pretty fn money.

4) Hakeem Nicks

5) Mike Sims-Walker

-needed WRs pretty bad, so I picked up these two guys. I really like Hakeem, and MSW can be a solid WR2

6) Ahmad Bradshaw

7) Percy Harvin

Bradshaw has good value here I think, and his pick gives me CJ/DWill/Bradshaw as my top 3 RBs, so I obviously feel good about that. I didn't like Percy a few weeks ago, but if Favre is coming back then I'll take him as my WR3 any day.

8) Clinton Portis

9) Kenny Britt

-More RB/WR depth. I like Clinton to have a pretty good year, and Kenny Britt has some upside.

10) Mohamed Massaquoi

11) John Carlson

-Since I drafted a QB so early there's no way I was taking a TE early too, so I waited and picked up Carlson. Really there are about 10-12 TEs worth owning anyway so it's not crucial to get one imo.

 

[Rick James]

One other thing, I can't believe how many guys are taking TEs early in addition to their early QBs. IMO, it's cool to take one of those positions early but both of them? no way.

 

[death of the cool]

One other thing, I can't believe how many guys are taking TEs early in addition to their early QBs. IMO, it's cool to take one of those positions early but both of them? no way.

The reason that I am willing to take both is that I like the value of the mid tier 6-9 RB's and Wr's this year much more than what I am getting in the 3rd.4th, and 5th round for those skill positions.With so many RBBC, I take my stud RB at 1.01 (Chris Johnson) and stud WR at 2.12 (D.Jackson) and then I bank on finding a RBBC member later in the draft that exceeds his ADP versus taking one earlier that has a chance to perform below it. Barring injury....QB's and TE's are some of the safest picks that you can make.I'm willing to adapt....if 5 QB's go before 2.12, I will wait and draft Kolb or Flacco. There is no cookie cutter recipe.

 

[Nagle2998]

One other thing, I can't believe how many guys are taking TEs early in addition to their early QBs. IMO, it's cool to take one of those positions early but both of them? no way.

I have to agree about taking a Te early because IMO there are so many good ones this year your better off waiting another round or two and get a good rb or Wr instead. I disagree about the Qb because if they start going then when my pick comes up at 2.12 I'm taking the best Qb left because I think there are five really good ones then a huge dropoff. I actually have a draft coming up and I have the first pick for once so this is a good topic.

 

[-jb-]

It seems like you need to be a total maroon to draft bad team with any of the first three picks.

 

[kutta]

It seems like you need to be a total maroon to draft bad team with any of the first three picks.

Totally agree. I have the first pick in a league that started drafting a few days ago and I am just falling into a very good team. It's a good spot to be in.

 

[kutta]

Just for reference (I'm not posting this to rate my team because I really don't care), here is a draft I'm currently in on Antsports with a $50 entry fee and PPR and flex after my 7th round pick:

QB Donovan McNabb 7.01

RB Chris Johnson 1.01

RB Joseph Addai 4.12

WR Calvin Johnson 2.12

WR DeSean Jackson 3.01

WR Donald Driver 6.12

TE Vernon Davis 5.01

 

[TitanicHornet]

I had the 1st spot in a draft a couple of days ago. Some strange findings. MJD went above Ray Rice, 3 QBs went in the 1st round, Rodgers @3, followed by Brees then Peyton. Andre Johnson goes 7 BEFORE Frank Gore? Gore slips to 10. Strange strange 1st round. This was non-ppr, 6pt per TD.

Just for reference, my 1st 5 rounds.

1. (1) Chris Johnson

2. (20) DeAngelo Williams

3. (21) Miles Austin

4. (40) Matt Schaub

5. (41) Chad Ochocinco

Usually I would have gone RB-WR-WR but with DeAngelo at 20?? How can I say no. You can see you can certainly win a draft in your 1st 5 rounds of the draft.

ETA: Cant spell.

 

[bonesman]

Just for reference (I'm not posting this to rate my team because I really don't care), here is a draft I'm currently in on Antsports with a $50 entry fee and PPR and flex after my 7th round pick:QB Donovan McNabb 7.01 RB Chris Johnson 1.01 RB Joseph Addai 4.12 WR Calvin Johnson 2.12 WR DeSean Jackson 3.01 WR Donald Driver 6.12 TE Vernon Davis 5.01

I'm curious what RBs you had available to you at the 5/6 turn.Also, Bradshaw's ADP has surely risen since the initial posting.

 

[Rick James]

Just put this team together:

QB[x1]- Rivers, McNabb

RB[x2]- CJ, Best, Bradshaw, Hardesty, Larry Johnson

WR[x3]- DJax, Brandon Marshall, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Williams (TB), gaffney

TE[x1]- Winslow

K-whatever

Def-whatever

I'd be thrilled to have this squad.

 

[randbrod14]

I am in a 12 team non-ppr league with 6pt/td for qb, rushing, and receiving.

QB in my league tend to go quickly. There usually is also a run on rb. If one of the top 5 qb are not there at the end of the second round (I am taking CJohnson first), I will be going wr/wr with my next two picks. Otherwise, I will be taking a qb and a top wr. Will try to take one of the next tier of qb with my 4/5th round and 7/8 round picks.

I usually am the last person to draft a qb. This year, I would like to draft one early but don't think I will get the opportunity. I suspect that someone between Marshall, Jennings, Jackson will be available.

I also usually am one of the last to take a te. I agree that this year I would like to have one of the top 4 te (Clark, Gates, Davis, Finley).

Usually, my strategy is to go against the trend. If there is a run on qb, then there may be an elite wr available. Having the first pick is difficult, because that pick starts a trend rather than following it. Should be interesting....

 

[kutta]

We have one more round left in a 16 round, PPR, Flex, QB TD's worth 4 points, $50 Antsports league. I drafted from the 1 spot. Here's my team:

QB Donovan McNabb 7.01

QB Joe Flacco BAL 8.12

RB Chris Johnson 1.01

RB Joseph Addai 4.12

RB Justin Forsett 9.01

RB Michael Bush 11.01

RB Javon Ringer 15.01

WR Calvin Johnson 2.12

WR DeSean Jackson 3.01

WR Donald Driver 6.12

WR Mohamed Massaquoi 10.12

TE Vernon Davis 5.01

TE Kevin Boss NYG 12.12

PK Mason Crosby 13.01

DT Chicago Bears 14.12

I am picking a WR with my last pick - Anthony Gonzales is still available and I'm hoping for him.

 

[kutta]

Just for reference (I'm not posting this to rate my team because I really don't care), here is a draft I'm currently in on Antsports with a $50 entry fee and PPR and flex after my 7th round pick:QB Donovan McNabb 7.01 RB Chris Johnson 1.01 RB Joseph Addai 4.12 WR Calvin Johnson 2.12 WR DeSean Jackson 3.01 WR Donald Driver 6.12 TE Vernon Davis 5.01

I'm curious what RBs you had available to you at the 5/6 turn.Also, Bradshaw's ADP has surely risen since the initial posting.

I'm not sure if you mean the 4/5 turn or the 6/7 turn, as there is no 5/6 turn for the #1 pick.At 4/5 turn and taken before my 6th round pick were:Barber,J. StewartR. BrownFred JacksonAt the 6/7 turn and taken before my 8th round pick were:Felix JonesBrandon JacobsPortisTomlinsonArian FosterCJ SpillerCadillacAhmad BradshawIf we drafted today, I suspect Foster, Spiller, and Bradshaw all would have gone much earlier.