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Play your studs, or play the matchups? A philosophical question. (1 Viewer)

F

Foureyes

Footballguy
Yeah, you all know whats at stake. You draft a beast in the second round. Best case scenario, he has 14 good to great games and two duds. You try to figure out which two games he's gonna suck so you can bench him to optimize your lineup. You do so in week five, when the stud is up against the top ranked defense and your backup is expected to get a huge workload...and you hope it doesn't backfire...

Case in point. The year I had Romo and Ben, and played the matchups. Studied all week long, checked the experts, asked all of you about it in the Assistant Coach thread. Now here's the bad news... in the fourteen weeks when both guys played (bye weeks excluded) I played the guy who scored less points (the wrong guy) ten weeks, and the guy who scored more points (the right guy) only four times. That was the year that Ben threw 6 TDs in back to back games. Lucky me, he was only on my bench for one of those two weeks. Ugh.

Obviously, this comes up all the time. This year my QBs are Stafford and Mahomes. Even though I drafted Stafford as my starter (round 7) and Mahomes as my backup, I've been starting Mahomes every week since week one when he lit it up on my bench. My strategy (since the Romo/Ben year) is to pick a starter and stay with him until he proves he doesn't deserve it (or until the backup goes nuts to a point where you can't possibly keep him on the bench, as was the case with Mahomes earlier this year).

So this week? Mahomes vs Jax or Stafford vs GB? If I ask 100 people (and I have, directly or indirectly) and check out all the rankings, virtually everybody says play Stafford this week. But if I do, you know I'll want to hang myself when Mahomes throws six TDs on my bench...

 
I don't have Mahomes,  but if I did the only QB's I'd bench him for this week are Ryan, Goff, Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Watson and Newton.

 
I find it very difficult to accept or watch my "studs" going off my bench, playing them seems to be the solution for that issue. With that said, D Thomas is on my bench going forward, but I don't think he is considered a "stud"

 
Starting Kelce; should've started Ebron. No one would ever say that before their start times though. I always play my studs as it's easier to live with yourself. I've learned from streaming defneses over the years that I can't figure matchups out for nothing.

 
Defining “stud” is relevant here. 

To me a “stud” is in my lineup hell or high water. Todd Gurley at the 85 Bears? I’m starting Gurley. 

Mahommes is off to a good start, but he just showed us that he’s voulnerable to matchup. He wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t spectacular either. His floor is better than some QBs. But he’s not bulletproof to where I’d start him against the Jags tough secondary. 

And since Stafford could also be considered a “stud” considering his track record, weapons & record of success against GB, this isn’t as much a “philosophical” question as it is an “assistant coach forum WSIS” question. 

The caution with Stafford is whether that’s going to be a high scoring game, what with Rodgers lack of receiving weapons.

the answer to the general question is “always start your studs”, but the answer to this question is “start the QB you think is gonna get you more points”. ;)  

good luck with your decision. 

 
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Foureyes said:
Yeah, you all know whats at stake. You draft a beast in the second round. Best case scenario, he has 14 good to great games and two duds. You try to figure out which two games he's gonna suck so you can bench him to optimize your lineup. You do so in week five, when the stud is up against the top ranked defense and your backup is expected to get a huge workload...and you hope it doesn't backfire...

Case in point. The year I had Romo and Ben, and played the matchups. Studied all week long, checked the experts, asked all of you about it in the Assistant Coach thread. Now here's the bad news... in the fourteen weeks when both guys played (bye weeks excluded) I played the guy who scored less points (the wrong guy) ten weeks, and the guy who scored more points (the right guy) only four times. That was the year that Ben threw 6 TDs in back to back games. Lucky me, he was only on my bench for one of those two weeks. Ugh.

Obviously, this comes up all the time. This year my QBs are Stafford and Mahomes. Even though I drafted Stafford as my starter (round 7) and Mahomes as my backup, I've been starting Mahomes every week since week one when he lit it up on my bench. My strategy (since the Romo/Ben year) is to pick a starter and stay with him until he proves he doesn't deserve it (or until the backup goes nuts to a point where you can't possibly keep him on the bench, as was the case with Mahomes earlier this year).

So this week? Mahomes vs Jax or Stafford vs GB? If I ask 100 people (and I have, directly or indirectly) and check out all the rankings, virtually everybody says play Stafford this week. But if I do, you know I'll want to hang myself when Mahomes throws six TDs on my bench...
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I benched Mahomes but my backup is Brady so easy choice for me. Stafford? I think Patricia runs the ball this week after only giving Johnson 9 carries last week. Rodgers may not have the firepower he needs to make this a barn burner with Cobb out and Adams hurting. Even Geronimo isnt well. Old boy Graham should get a lot of passes I think.

 
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I do like playing matchups a lot. I benched Carlos Hyde and Collins. I started Hines and White. Are Hyde and Collins studs? Well they have the capability to put up stud numbers any given week but I started the other two because I thought the matchup and aopportunity were better. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I’m worried about Hill, myself - I’m not benching him, but that’s only because I have an empty bench thanks to BYEs. 
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Hill is a stud and unless he's deemed OUT, he's playing for you. Same with Adams for me. Listed as questionable with some minor injuries and going against Slay but I don't even consider sitting a talent like that ever. If he's active, he's playing for me.

 
One note about heavy rain/sloppy conditions from what I’ve seen over the years - sometimes that favors a receiver. 

The WR knows the route - the DB is guessing/chasing. 

The concern is whether the wind/rain prevents the ball from getting to the target. We know Mahommes has the arm strength for that - so there’s a Chance Hill catches a bomb today. 

It’s not a great chance. 

But there’s a chance. 

 
The Jags D/ST has allowed just 3 passing TD's all year, and only 4 TD's overall. Two of those passing TD's were to Brady. The other one was a 2 yard TD that Darnold threw after they recovered a Yeldon fumble. Not a huge sample size, but personally, I'd rather roll with Stafford vs a Green Bay team that looks like they're going to throw a lot today. I could totally see a 30-21 type game. Indoors vs Arrowhead. Yep. I'd take Stafford all day.

 
Lions defense is bad so they should be giving up a lot of points to Rodgers and GB. That means Stafford will be playing from behind and throwing all day and racking up yards and TDs.  All signs point to Stafford having a big day.  That means start Mahones.

 
Stafford is QB 17 playing a relatively easy schedule. He has finished 23rd, 8th, 15th and 15th on a weekly basis. There are some QB’s Mahomes should be benched for, Stafford isn’t one of them regardless of the outcome.

 
The problem is who are really studs these days?  Most all of them are up and down these days....  do you start gurley and kamara  every week reguardless of matchups?  sure.   Do you always start Hopkins absolutely!   After a small group of people who are scoring consistently who is really a stud?   This question is ALWAYS lineup dependent....  The guy who drafted a team of solid backups  is going to tend to bench more "studs"  than the guy who has a very shallow bench.  So the answer for me is:  it depends.  I will say that defense kicker and qb are positions I tend to play the matchups more than rb and wr ( of course defense and kickers  are  much less likely to be  termed studs)

 
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Shrek said:
The Jags D/ST has allowed just 3 passing TD's all year, and only 4 TD's overall. Two of those passing TD's were to Brady. The other one was a 2 yard TD that Darnold threw after they recovered a Yeldon fumble. Not a huge sample size, but personally, I'd rather roll with Stafford vs a Green Bay team that looks like they're going to throw a lot today. I could totally see a 30-21 type game. Indoors vs Arrowhead. Yep. I'd take Stafford all day.
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That may make me switch to Watson from Mahomes

 
Nero said:
Stafford is QB 17 playing a relatively easy schedule. He has finished 23rd, 8th, 15th and 15th on a weekly basis. There are some QB’s Mahomes should be benched for, Stafford isn’t one of them regardless of the outcome.
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Do you consider Watson one to bench Mahomes for?

 
dkp993 said:
After many many years doing this it’s come down to a simple decision for me.  I start the person I will be least mad at myself if they were the wrong choice. This usually means my studs but not always. 
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Good way to put it. I remember once starting Lendale White as my RB2 instead of Edge because of a tasty matchup. Well, here we are some whatever years later and I've never done that again.

 
Nero said:
Stafford is QB 17 playing a relatively easy schedule. He has finished 23rd, 8th, 15th and 15th on a weekly basis. There are some QB’s Mahomes should be benched for, Stafford isn’t one of them regardless of the outcome.
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Again....NEVER bench a QB playing against the Packers.

 
I also had this dilemma.  I ended up starting Mahomes and cutting Stafford today (I needed to pick up a kicker), since he's on a Bye next week.  In my league, Mahomes put up 16.2 and Stafford put up 17.6 - so I'd consider that a wash.  And most rankings had Stafford and Mahomes ranked pretty close together, both a little higher than they finished, but low end QB1 stuff.

As it turned out, both games had the DST giving the offense a short field.  Even though Detroit scored 31 real points in a game, not a single player on the Lions scored 20 fantasy points in PPR.  The Packers only put up 23 real points, but Rodgers and Adams both put up over 30 fantasy points.

When it comes to DST, I always play the match up if I can - I made a lot of hay for a couple of years chasing the Jaguars offense around the league.  That's especially true early in the season.  Last year I eventually picked up the Jaguars DST and rode them to a championship.  This week I picked up the Bears DST and I will definitely ride them for a little while.

But at other positions, you have to define who really is a stud - a top 5 guy is a stud, a top 15 guy really isn't.  But game flow can blow everything out of the water, as it did today for both Mahomes and Stafford.

 
I had a similar dilemma this week. In one league I have both Drew brees and Matt Ryan. I basically figured I should start Brees every week except his bye and use Ryan that week.  When I saw that Ryan played Pitt this week--I was thinking that game could have major potential to be a shootout.  I slowly convinced myself that he could be the right play. I confused myself with the issue to the point I asked Sig who I should start in his weekly thread--and he also said Ryan. I went ahead and started Ryan--and while he didn't do anything disastrous--his numbers were relatively pedestrian in the world of expectations for elite fantasty qbs.  I probably should have just stuck with my gut instinct of playing my studs. 

 
Shrek said:
The Jags D/ST has allowed just 3 passing TD's all year, and only 4 TD's overall. Two of those passing TD's were to Brady. The other one was a 2 yard TD that Darnold threw after they recovered a Yeldon fumble. Not a huge sample size, but personally, I'd rather roll with Stafford vs a Green Bay team that looks like they're going to throw a lot today. I could totally see a 30-21 type game. Indoors vs Arrowhead. Yep. I'd take Stafford all day.
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31-23 final. And no passing TD's against Jags D. I understand the "never bench your studs" theory. Been doing this for almost 30 years. But no one really drafted Mahomes to be their "stud"- he was generally in the 10-14 range pre-draft in redrafts. It's OK to do your homework and realize that the odds are sometimes stacked against your stud, and if you have viable alternatives, take them. We've all won and lost one point games before. One of the best feelings ever in fantasy football is trusting yourself and your research, going with your instinct, and winning a matchup because your move provided the points you needed to win. In my leagues, Stafford outscored Mahomes by 3-7 points, depending on the scoring system.  

 
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