Player Spotlight: Chester Taylor (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Chester Taylor, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Player Page Link: Chester Taylor Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[BigRed]

OK nobody wants a shot, I'll give my .02: best on deeper rosters as obviously it's AP's team, but AP has a history of getting nicked up and something a little more serious than a nick to AP and Taylor is one outstanding RB to have on the cheap. Plus some might be surprised to learn that he had over 1100 total yds and 7 TDs last year even with AP leading the way. The problem is when does he get it and obviously dicey to start most weeks, but a great upside kinda pick if you can afford the roster space.

 

[Bears_Man2]

I think he's this year's Ladell Betts.

I've seen him go 5th/6th round. I normally go with guys that'll be every week starters during those rounds. I think someone like Rhodes/Ricky can produce similar results (should similar injury opportunity arise) for a much much cheaper price.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Chester Taylor has averaged over 4.0 yards per carry every single season besides his rookie season, 5 years running. Chester Taylor is a talented running back, he's a proven 300 rusher and is the real deal in every sense of the word. It's hard to just keep this post about Taylor because you also have the rookie of the year, running back Adrian Peterson on the team who could go for 1500 yards himself.

Putting aside whatever season you may project Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor will get his. Minnesota has become a VERY good rushing team and when Taylor's in the game, they lose very little IMO with him there. He had over 300 rushes two years ago for Minnesota and 157 rushes last season.

I'm going to predict a minimum of 130 rushes with upside, meaning any injury time by ADP those rushes climb significantly.

650 yards and 5 Td's with 38 receptions and 488 yards and 1 td

The most valuable backup to own in the NFL.

 

[rzrback77]

The main problem with Chester Taylor is that he will be a little involved in most of the games, but he will not provide a predicatable start without an injury to Peterson. His current ADP is RB 34 and 82 overall. I think that he is a must pick hand-cuff for Peterson owners and most will likely make the handcuff selection earlier than I would be willing to take Taylor.

However, in his two featured games in weeks 11 and 12, he had 53 carries for 241 yards and 4 TDs with 5 catches for 50 yards. When he played the lead role in 07, he was dynamite. These two games were against Oakland and the Giants, no slouches on defense. That is why I see him as a must take handcuff for Peterson owners.

Chester Taylor 125 carries 625 yards 5.0 ypc 30 catches 300 yards and 6 TDs

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

The main problem with Chester Taylor is that he will be a little involved in most of the games, but he will not provide a predicatable start without an injury to Peterson. His current ADP is RB 34 and 82 overall. I think that he is a must pick hand-cuff for Peterson owners and most will likely make the handcuff selection earlier than I would be willing to take Taylor.However, in his two featured games in weeks 11 and 12, he had 53 carries for 241 yards and 4 TDs with 5 catches for 50 yards. When he played the lead role in 07, he was dynamite. These two games were against Oakland and the Giants, no slouches on defense. That is why I see him as a must take handcuff for Peterson owners.Chester Taylor 125 carries 625 yards 5.0 ypc 30 catches 300 yards and 6 TDs

I think he's a no brain selection as soon as you get over RB 30. Even if ADP doesn't get hurt, Taylor will live up to that ADP or very close to it and if ADP does get dinged up for anytime, Taylor's a top 10 to top 5 weekly start.If someone is going to select him inside the top 30, then just scratch him on your last and start telling people in your draft you heard Adrian Peterson's supposed to get even more carries per game and Taylor is supposed to get a reduced role. That'll make them sip on their beer for a bit and ask them who they plan on starting at RB2 since Taylor will be there's unless you're already drafting your RB3 inside the first 30 backs taken off the board, which I wouldn't recommend taking your RB3 before you have some quality starting Wr's.

 

[Tanner9919]

I'll be CT gets over 250 carries this season..ADP is a potato-chip and can go down at a moment's notice.Factoring in the sophomore slump theory here, I don't expect ADP to be anywhere near the same RB that he was last season...I look at trends , specifically, the final 6-8 games of the previous season when judging players for this year. ADP was lousy the final 6 games of 2007, averaging 3.8 per carry, and a putrid 50 yards/gm in the process.

combining the Robert Smith-type injury risk with lousy stats over the final 6 weeks of 2007, doesn't bode well for ADP, in my opinion.

Taylor figures to see plenty of action as a change-of-pace, 3rd down guy, but also in relief of ADP if/when he gets hurt (again)

 

[beto]

Chester Taylor has averaged over 4.0 yards per carry every single season besides his rookie season, 5 years running. Chester Taylor is a talented running back, he's a proven 300 rusher and is the real deal in every sense of the word. It's hard to just keep this post about Taylor because you also have the rookie of the year, running back Adrian Peterson on the team who could go for 1500 yards himself.Putting aside whatever season you may project Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor will get his. Minnesota has become a VERY good rushing team and when Taylor's in the game, they lose very little IMO with him there. He had over 300 rushes two years ago for Minnesota and 157 rushes last season.I'm going to predict a minimum of 130 rushes with upside, meaning any injury time by ADP those rushes climb significantly.650 yards and 5 Td's with 38 receptions and 488 yards and 1 tdThe most valuable backup to own in the NFL.

Agree with what was said here. I'll go 150 rushes with plenty of upside.

 

[BigRed]

Unless AP is hurt, I would say 125-150 carries is the max.

Still worth consideration as late RB selection though.

 

[David Yudkin]

There was some talk in another Taylor thread about taking ADP and CT and playing them both at the same time similar to something I suggested a few years ago with Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson. The premise there was that the KC RB production was so much better than the rest of the league that bewteen the two spots you could assure yourself of outscoring almost every pairing of RBs in the league. And if one or the other got hurt, then you could get max production from one and play another RB for the guy that was out.

Here's what I had to say in the other CT thread from last week . . .

ADP and Taylor combined for 437 points last year. That's almost as much as the #5 and #6 RBs scored COMBINED. I've been pimping Minnesota as the new Seattle (not quite the new KC), and they haven't disappointed.

I agree that taking Taylor is not a bad thing, and I think it's a win-win situation. If ADP gets way more work than last year (which I don't think will happen), then you can start him and have insurance in CT. If they end up splitting the workload to a certain degree, you can always play CT if you need a RB. And if either guy gets hurt, the value of the other one would go up.

IMO, whether you own or don't own ADP, wouldn't you at least consider drafting a guy that was a Top 20 RB almost in the 7th round?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Chester Taylor is a great value play in the 7th round this season. In best ball leagues I have snatched him up even without ADP, and I plan on platooning him with guys like Ahmad Bradshaw, Jerious Norwood, and DeAngelo Williams for my RB2 slots.

The fact is ADP has not finished a season without injury going back to his rookie year in college so he has a track record of being very very good but also a little bit of an injury bug too. I don't think ADP will miss a ton of time but I wouldn't be surprised idf he only starts 12 games also.

Chester has one of the best run blocking lines in football. He is fresh as he certainly was not overused last season, and when called upon he exploded in games. I see Taylor having several games of 50 yds and a TD in this offense. They pay him an avg of $5 million a year...they aren't giving him that money to just ride the pine. he and ADP make a great tandem and I look for taylor to once again post decent numbers.

200 carries, 900 rush yds, 6 TD

32 receptions, 240 yds, 1 TD

1,140 total yds and 7 TD

 

[BigRed]

IMO, whether you own or don't own ADP, wouldn't you at least consider drafting a guy that was a Top 20 RB almost in the 7th round?

He won't equal last year, and IMO the only way he's a really good value play is if you do have AP or large rosters.

 

[Jon_Moore]

The Vikings have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and a defense that's awfully close to being the best, so they'll run the ball...alot. The passing game isn't as efficient as you'd like it to be, so they'll lean on the run. Taylor's yard per carry should remain around 5 so long as he's the 2ndary ball carrier and keeping his legs fresh. The Vikings don't want to run Peterson into the ground, so Taylor will see his share of carries as well

176 Carries

827 Yards

4 TDs

38 Receptions

274 Yards

1 TD

 

[pollardsvision]

i've got him down for 175/800/7 with 35 catches for 300 yards.

i think he's fairly undervalued.

the vikings have no reason to run the wheels off of AP. why not give a former 1200 yard rusher that got 5.4 YPC last year a huge chunk of the workload.

i also see some nice PPR value here. he caught 29 last year while missing time following consecutive 40 rec. seasons. of the 2 backs, chester should be primary guy in 3rd and long situations.

to me, he's actually similar to MJD without the TD upside. there's still plenty of upside though, if AP goes down.

even if AP stays healthy, he's a nice guy to have around. i've got him higher than michael turner in PPR leagues. he's a great 3rd back who can be a #2 in a pinch (in PPR leagues)