Player Spotlight: DeAngelo Williams (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers

Player Page Link: DeAngelo Williams Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[plastik]

He'll begin the year as the starter, but I'm not sure that he'll end it as such. With Carolina's revamped line and a renewed passing attack (A healthy Delhomme and depth at WR) I think that he'll shine from the start, but I think that we'll probably be looking at an RBBC by seasons end. Situation is everything here and there are a ton of questions about how things will shake out so I feel like this warrents both 'floor' and 'ceiling' projections. I'll say...

Floor in a full-on RBBC:

Rushing 180/850/3

Receiving 30/220/2

Ceiling if he gets the bulk of the work:

Rushing 210/1000/6

Receiving 45/350/3

Honestly, I think Williams is undervalued heading into this season. I'd expect a substantial uptick in the team rushing stats for 2008 and I think DWill is going to begin the season as the starter. My money says that if he DOES begin the year as the starter hes going to play VERY well... he averaged 5 ypc last season despite CAR's offensive woes. The kid's got talent, but for a variety of reasons he's yet to get the carries to fully show what he's got. Right now J.Stewart's ADP is at 58 while Dwill is at 78... I like the value that Dwill presents this season and, at very least, if he starts the season out hot you'll be able to cash him in in a trade mid-season. In the end though, I think he finishes the season closer to my prediction of his ceiling than his floor...

I'll say 200/940/5 and 40/300/3 for a total of 1240 yds and 8 TDs, GREAT value at RB28.

 

[Jason Wood]

Plastik,

First, let me say thanks for the excellent write-up.

Second, let me say that I don't see it this way at all. I honestly think the Panthers are in a win now mode and didn't draft Stewart and Otah if they felt secure in Williams' ability to be the offensive engine. To my mind, everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse IMHO. I could certainly envision a committee approach, but I think as the season wears on Stewart will be more and more of the total offensive package.

 

[zamboni]

He may open the season as the starter, but I see little chance, barring injury, that he's more than a change-of-pace/3rd down back by mid-season.

Stewart was almost certainly drafted to be the main guy - if the Panthers thought that highly of Williams as the workhorse, I highly doubt they would have drafted Stewart over other positions of need at that early stage.

I'm guessing in the range of: 150-640-3; 40-250-2, with much of those totals coming in the early stage of the season as Stewart gets more acclimated to the offense.

 

[shadyridr]

I think this will be a RBBC all year. I can see about 10 carries a game and a ton of receptions with very few TDs:

160 att, 720 yds, 2 tds, 48 rec, 384 yds, 2 td

 

[TLEF316]

I drafted DeAngelo very early in his rookie year (1st round of our draft after our 5 rounds of keepers). I expected him to be all purpose threat and very good PPR RB2. Needless to say, I've been disapointed. He has had some solid performances, but it has become painfully obvious that Carolina just doesnt believe in him. I never expected him to be a 30 carry per game bell cow, but its clear that he isnt even a capable RB1 in the eyes of the staff.

They obviously drafted Stewart to be their workhorse, and I'd draft DeAngelo with that in mind. If stewart stays healthy, I cant see Deangelo's ceiling being any higher than RB4 type numbers. (maybe a low end RB3 in a ppr) He couldn't beat out Foster and the staff drafted a player that's obviously a better fit for what they want to do.

Barring a massive setback for Stewart, I'll be cutting DA loose this year. He just isn't going to get the chance to produce. Whether its because of talent or situation is irrelevant in a re-draft or limited keeper. Limited dynasty value IMO as i doubt they trade him.

 

[podunker]

I agree with the first poster. I think Williams is way undervalued, especially in PPR leagues. He has the skills to do the job. I think he runs with the job early and does so well they have to keep him in the game. Stewart will be groomed very slowly, and may indeed get a few series just like Foster did with when he backed up Davis, and Williams did backing up Foster. They drafted Stewart because he was the best player available. Fox has proven in the past that he will always go with the veteran. When Williams gets the full job, he will shine!

Rushing 232/1100/7

Rec 49/375/4

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Plastik,First, let me say thanks for the excellent write-up.Second, let me say that I don't see it this way at all. I honestly think the Panthers are in a win now mode and didn't draft Stewart and Otah if they felt secure in Williams' ability to be the offensive engine. To my mind, everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse IMHO. I could certainly envision a committee approach, but I think as the season wears on Stewart will be more and more of the total offensive package.

I don't think the Panthers drafted Stewart 13th overall to share carries. DeAngelo couldn't even beat out Foster...and that is very telling. When I watch him play, I just don't see a starting NFL RB; I see a 3rd down back. 130 carries, 530 yards 2 TDs35 receptions, 280, 1 TD

 

[zamboni]

They drafted Stewart because he was the best player available.

Have to disagree strongly here.

 

[plastik]

Plastik,

First, let me say thanks for the excellent write-up.

Second, let me say that I don't see it this way at all. I honestly think the Panthers are in a win now mode and didn't draft Stewart and Otah if they felt secure in Williams' ability to be the offensive engine. To my mind, everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse IMHO. I could certainly envision a committee approach, but I think as the season wears on Stewart will be more and more of the total offensive package.

From ADP, player rankings, and the genral concensus on this board you are certainly in the majority by thinking such. My viewpoint is based on a few assumptions. 1. While I agree that "everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse", I also think that, in a general sense, Carolina has improved their offensive line and will have more success running the ballin 2008 then 2007.

2. I think that DWill will begin the season as the starter. While I realize that Stewart is quite NFL-ready, I still think that Fox will begin the season with the Veteran starter.

3. DWill averaged 5ypc last season while the offense suffered numerous injuries and struggled to move the ball. I think it's a safe assumption that Dwill can put very up good numbers behind an improved O-line and with the recover of the passing game.

If DWill does start and performs well, could his role possibly be reduced from what it was last year? What kind of coach, especially one in 'win now mode', wouldn't expand the role of a player that played like DWill did down the stretch last year?

In my projections I suggested that DWill will get 200 carries and average 4.7 yards per carry. Over the past Fox's time as the head coach in CAR, team carries break down like this:

2007 - 451 att

2006 - 423 att

2005 - 487 att

2004 - 422 att

2003 - 522 att

2002 - 452 att

All signs from the Panthers offseason point toward a rededication to the running game. If that IS the case one might resonably expect an uptic in Carolina's total rushing attempts. If they increase the number of a carries to say... 500 (4 NFL teams had over 500 att last season, with another 3 in the 480+ range), then if Dwill were to get 200 carries that would leave 300 for the rest of the team. That being the case, Stewart could still get the majority of the carries (240-250) with the possibility of DWill meeting my expectations still being open. Between Stewart being a rookie and his propensity to get nicked up I see no reason why DWill can't still have a substantial role in the Carolina Offense for the 2008 season - unless Stewart ends up with more than 250 carries... btw for background here are some stats for rushing attempts for the top rookies over the last few years:

2007 M. Lynch - 280 att (Nobody of DWill's talent level - IMO - or draft pedagry to compete for carries)

2007 ADP - 238 att (Shared carries with the veteran C. Taylor)

2006 Addai - 226 att (Shared carries with the veteran D. Rhodes)

2006 Maroney - 175 (Shared Carries with the veteran Corey Dillon)

2005 Caddy Williams - 290 att (Nobody of DWill's talent level - IMO - or draft pedagry to compete for carries... Pittman? Alstot? No way.)

2005 Ronnie Brown - 207 att (Shared carries with Rickey Williams)

2004 Kevin Jones - 241 att (Nobody of DWill's talent level - IMO - or draft pedagry to compete for carries)

2003 D.Williams - 238 att (Nobody of DWill's talent level - IMO - or draft pedagry to compete for carries)

2002 Portis - 273 att (Denver - enough said)

Judging from recent precedents to project Stewart with 250 carries is on the very high end, considering his situation. It simply hasn't happened in cases where there is a capable runner to share carries with. In disagreeing with my projection I'd have to assume that you think one of the following things will happen:

1. The Panthers will run the Ball less in 2008 than in 2007.

2. J. Stewart will get more than 250 carries (possible, but unlikely - IMO. In fact, you've projected 235 carries for him and 140 for Dwill - If rushing att stay the same from 2007 to 2008, where do the other 76 carries go? Last season 60 att were divided amongst players other than Foster and Williams).

3. D.Williams role will stay the same or be reduced, despite very solid play (which I don't see happening for the resons that I've already stated).

This post is growing far too long, so I'll just sum it up with one last statement. I really don't see how, with the rest of the offense improving around him and his excellent play down the stretch last season, DeAngelo William's role could end up being reduced this season. I think his last season's totals of 167 touches, 892 yards, and 5 TD's are beneath his floor for 2008, barring injury. I think it'll be RBBC in Carolina and that, as they rededicate themselves to the run, there will be room for two rather productive RB's - classic case of lightning and thunder.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Plastik,

First, let me say thanks for the excellent write-up.

Second, let me say that I don't see it this way at all. I honestly think the Panthers are in a win now mode and didn't draft Stewart and Otah if they felt secure in Williams' ability to be the offensive engine. To my mind, everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse IMHO. I could certainly envision a committee approach, but I think as the season wears on Stewart will be more and more of the total offensive package.

I don't think the Panthers drafted Stewart 13th overall to share carries. DeAngelo couldn't even beat out Foster...and that is very telling. When I watch him play, I just don't see a starting NFL RB; I see a 3rd down back.

130 carries, 530 yards 2 TDs

35 receptions, 280, 1 TD

Didn't the Bears draft Benson 4th overall and he was the backup to Thomas Jones his rookie year? I agree that Stewart will eventually be the starter, but I also believe Williams will be the starter to begin the year, and if he starts out well he could make it difficult for Stewart in 2008. Then we're looking at a trade of Williams in 2009. The Panthers would love to showcase Williams as future trade bait.

 

[Donnybrook]

Plastik,

First, let me say thanks for the excellent write-up.

Second, let me say that I don't see it this way at all. I honestly think the Panthers are in a win now mode and didn't draft Stewart and Otah if they felt secure in Williams' ability to be the offensive engine. To my mind, everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse IMHO. I could certainly envision a committee approach, but I think as the season wears on Stewart will be more and more of the total offensive package.

I don't think the Panthers drafted Stewart 13th overall to share carries. DeAngelo couldn't even beat out Foster...and that is very telling. When I watch him play, I just don't see a starting NFL RB; I see a 3rd down back.

130 carries, 530 yards 2 TDs

35 receptions, 280, 1 TD

Didn't the Bears draft Benson 4th overall and he was the backup to Thomas Jones his rookie year? I agree that Stewart will eventually be the starter, but I also believe Williams will be the starter to begin the year, and if he starts out well he could make it difficult for Stewart in 2008. Then we're looking at a trade of Williams in 2009. The Panthers would love to showcase Williams as future trade bait.

Thomas Jones was the primary ball carrier prior to Benson whereas Williams never was. I have no doubt that when the Panthers need a couple of yards to move the chains Stewart will be in the game.

 

[saintfool]

I think this will be a RBBC all year. I can see about 10 carries a game and a ton of receptions with very few TDs:160 att, 720 yds, 2 tds, 48 rec, 384 yds, 2 td

I think the current Carolina situation is reminiscent of their 2003 situation. At the time, they had a workhorse in Stephen Davis but it was also Deshaun Foster's rookie year. Davis had 300+ attempts for 1400 yards and 8 TDs. Foster went for close to 650 combined yards and 2 TDs. Carolina went 11-5 that season. Fox is under pressure to succeed and he knows this is a winning formula. Williams is talented but he's not the type of RB they have had their most successful seasons with. He'll get touches but the workload will fall on Stewart's shoulders. He's productive but I think it's pretty similar to what he did last year.800 yards rushing. 150 yds receiving. 6 tds.

 

[Team Legacy]

My man-love for DeAngelo runs deep, almost all the Survivor guys know this by now, and my opinion for 2008 hasn't changed much post draft, although long term, it looks as if Stewart is the plan. Here's what I wrote back in April:

DWill finished RB30 and Foster RB29 last year. DWill did it with only 144 carries while Foster had 230. Those carries have to go somewhere, and while I'm sure a vet (now rookie) is coming to help, I think we see a flip / flop in 2008, with DWill getting the 230 and yet to be named RB (now Stewart) with the 144.

Another 90 carries puts DWill as a Top 10 back if he continues his average.

With that said, Stewart obviously represents a HUGE threat to DWill's production, but look at what DWill did with his carries last year versus Foster. DWill scored nearly the same amount of fantasy points with 90 less carries. Why didn't Fox do something about it then? Simple. Fox is a VETS kinda guy. He is loyal to the vets. Unless Stewart blows the doors off, he will get his 150-160 carries while DWill who has been in the system for 3 off-seasons now, gets the nod as the veteran starter. I do see Stewart as a big-time TD threat to DWill in 2008. Projection time: 220 carries 1100 yards 5 TDs 40 receptions 400 yards 2 tds = Top 10 Status

 

[vincentvega722]

I won't give you numbers to back it up but the Panthers are going with the same running scheme they had a few years ago. Early on, DeAngelo will give you numbers but if Stewart progresses he will get some more carries not to mention being the goal line back. I wouldn't have my hopes up for either these two guys. Stewart might be the player to give you 8-10 touchdowns with lesser yards than DeAngelo who would probably net you more yards but lesser touchdowns.

 

[Biabreakable]

Plastik,

First, let me say thanks for the excellent write-up.

Second, let me say that I don't see it this way at all. I honestly think the Panthers are in a win now mode and didn't draft Stewart and Otah if they felt secure in Williams' ability to be the offensive engine. To my mind, everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse IMHO. I could certainly envision a committee approach, but I think as the season wears on Stewart will be more and more of the total offensive package.

From ADP, player rankings, and the genral concensus on this board you are certainly in the majority by thinking such. My viewpoint is based on a few assumptions. 1. While I agree that "everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse", I also think that, in a general sense, Carolina has improved their offensive line and will have more success running the ballin 2008 then 2007.

2. I think that DWill will begin the season as the starter. While I realize that Stewart is quite NFL-ready, I still think that Fox will begin the season with the Veteran starter.

3. DWill averaged 5ypc last season while the offense suffered numerous injuries and struggled to move the ball. I think it's a safe assumption that Dwill can put very up good numbers behind an improved O-line and with the recover of the passing game.

If DWill does start and performs well, could his role possibly be reduced from what it was last year? What kind of coach, especially one in 'win now mode', wouldn't expand the role of a player that played like DWill did down the stretch last year?

In my projections I suggested that DWill will get 200 carries and average 4.7 yards per carry. Over the past Fox's time as the head coach in CAR, team carries break down like this:

2007 - 451 att

2006 - 423 att

2005 - 487 att

2004 - 422 att

2003 - 522 att

2002 - 452 att

All signs from the Panthers offseason point toward a rededication to the running game. If that IS the case one might resonably expect an uptic in Carolina's total rushing attempts. If they increase the number of a carries to say... 500 (4 NFL teams had over 500 att last season, with another 3 in the 480+ range), then if Dwill were to get 200 carries that would leave 300 for the rest of the team. That being the case, Stewart could still get the majority of the carries (240-250) with the possibility of DWill meeting my expectations still being open. Between Stewart being a rookie and his propensity to get nicked up I see no reason why DWill can't still have a substantial role in the Carolina Offense for the 2008 season - unless Stewart ends up with more than 250 carries... btw for background here are some stats for rushing attempts for the top rookies over the last few years:

2007 M. Lynch - 280 att (Nobody of DWill's talent level - IMO - or draft pedagry to compete for carries)

2007 ADP - 238 att (Shared carries with the veteran C. Taylor)

2006 Addai - 226 att (Shared carries with the veteran D. Rhodes)

2006 Maroney - 175 (Shared Carries with the veteran Corey Dillon)

2005 Caddy Williams - 290 att (Nobody of DWill's talent level - IMO - or draft pedagry to compete for carries... Pittman? Alstot? No way.)

2005 Ronnie Brown - 207 att (Shared carries with Rickey Williams)

2004 Kevin Jones - 241 att (Nobody of DWill's talent level - IMO - or draft pedagry to compete for carries)

2003 D.Williams - 238 att (Nobody of DWill's talent level - IMO - or draft pedagry to compete for carries)

2002 Portis - 273 att (Denver - enough said)

Judging from recent precedents to project Stewart with 250 carries is on the very high end, considering his situation. It simply hasn't happened in cases where there is a capable runner to share carries with. In disagreeing with my projection I'd have to assume that you think one of the following things will happen:

1. The Panthers will run the Ball less in 2008 than in 2007.

2. J. Stewart will get more than 250 carries (possible, but unlikely - IMO. In fact, you've projected 235 carries for him and 140 for Dwill - If rushing att stay the same from 2007 to 2008, where do the other 76 carries go? Last season 60 att were divided amongst players other than Foster and Williams).

3. D.Williams role will stay the same or be reduced, despite very solid play (which I don't see happening for the resons that I've already stated).

This post is growing far too long, so I'll just sum it up with one last statement. I really don't see how, with the rest of the offense improving around him and his excellent play down the stretch last season, DeAngelo William's role could end up being reduced this season. I think his last season's totals of 167 touches, 892 yards, and 5 TD's are beneath his floor for 2008, barring injury. I think it'll be RBBC in Carolina and that, as they rededicate themselves to the run, there will be room for two rather productive RB's - classic case of lightning and thunder.

I think the discussion of rookie carries for RB is something that merits its own thread and would lend to useful discussion.For this specific situation with the Panthers running game I think it is worth noting that the Panthers offense was so inept last season that it makes DeAngelo Williams performance under those circumstances that much more remarkable.

That DeAngelo Williams had 1.5 more yards/carry than Foster under the same poor circumstances is proof that he has an awful lot of talent and ability. I don't think this is really arguable (although some still fail to see the facts) and it should be obvious to everyone except for the most important person. John Fox.

In the Fox era the Panthers have aspired to be a balanced offense at worst to a run 1st offense at best. And all signs indicate that they will try to be a run 1st offense once again in 2008. Over the past 6 years the team has averaged 459.5 rushing attempts/season. With 2 1st round RB now in tow and Delhomme now healthy I see no reason to expect them to have less rushing attempts than this. That should be their floor as I do not see the situation as possibly being worse than it has been in more than one of these past 6 seasons. There is certainly some upside to expect more rushing attempts than this if the running game is working well. So I would set that range at 460-520 rushing attempts.

Now the hardest part to figure out is how will the distribution be divided?

The Panthers do like a fair ammount of trick plays and Steve Smith being the talent that he is will get 6-10 carries and a couple other WR may get a rushing attempt or 2 as well.

QBs will get something like 20-35 carries. I do not expect Delhomme to be risking himself unless under extreme circumstances. So as long as he is healthy those attempts should be low.

Other RBs like the FB get some carries also. But not much when the Panthers have had 2 healthy primary ball carriers. 10-20

So we should be shaving off 36-65 carries from the 2 primary RB. If my rushing attempt range is correct that would mean 424-455 carries split between Williams and Stewart.

It is important to note that the PAnthers have switched from the ZBS they used last season to a more power oriented blocking scheme. This in my mind favors Stewart over Williams and it seems that Fox wants to have a power running game. Although overall I do like Fox as a coach I think does not speak well of him that he has not been able to adapt to the talent of the players on his team through change of system, strategy and philosophy.

If the 2 RB split carries 50/50 that would be 212-228 carries for each of them. A RBBC. If this happens on a per game basis or because one gets more carries early on in the season and the other gets more later on in the season this is how the distribution could end up looking at the end of the season.

So even if you are being pessimistic about Williams prospects I still see no reason to expect him to get LESS or even the same ammount of opportunity as he had last season. I mean seriously. If Williams being as good as he has proven himself to be (a talented gamebreaker) only gets 144 carries that will mean that Stewart will get 280-311 carries. Not going to happen friends. As illustrated above the only rookies to have that level of carries in the past 6 years have been Carnell Williams and Lynch who were unquestioned starters from game one of the season and had no talented compitition for carries.

I do think it is important to respect that Stewart has 15-20 lbs on Williams and due to philosophy is likely to be favored in short yardage. Stewart is also a capable reciever by all accounts and should get some action in the passing game as one of the knocks against Williams is his ability as a pass blocker. It remains to be seen if Stewart will get any 3rd down action but I do see that as a possibility.

So with all of that in mind I am setting a range for Williams at 180-250 carries 4.5 ypc 810-1125 yards 3-8 TD 25-40 catches 217-348 yards 0-2 TD

The high range of variance is due to the uncertainty of this situation and the risk involved. But there is a lot of reward and upside that should not be overlooked. How Stewart does in training camp should help owners to lean one way or another in this range. If Stewart struggles or is injured in training camp then this projection range will be too conservative. If Stewart performs exceptionally well enough to actually beat out Williams in TC( unlikely) or get early 3rd down duties (unlikely early on) I still do not see Williams performing under the floor I have set here unless Williams is injured.

 

[TheFanatic]

Plastik,First, let me say thanks for the excellent write-up.Second, let me say that I don't see it this way at all. I honestly think the Panthers are in a win now mode and didn't draft Stewart and Otah if they felt secure in Williams' ability to be the offensive engine. To my mind, everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse IMHO. I could certainly envision a committee approach, but I think as the season wears on Stewart will be more and more of the total offensive package.

I don't think the Panthers drafted Stewart 13th overall to share carries. DeAngelo couldn't even beat out Foster...and that is very telling. When I watch him play, I just don't see a starting NFL RB; I see a 3rd down back. 130 carries, 530 yards 2 TDs35 receptions, 280, 1 TD

What he said....If you can't beat out Foster get ready for the Amp Lee comparisons....

 

[jurb26]

Plastik,First, let me say thanks for the excellent write-up.Second, let me say that I don't see it this way at all. I honestly think the Panthers are in a win now mode and didn't draft Stewart and Otah if they felt secure in Williams' ability to be the offensive engine. To my mind, everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse IMHO. I could certainly envision a committee approach, but I think as the season wears on Stewart will be more and more of the total offensive package.

I don't think the Panthers drafted Stewart 13th overall to share carries. DeAngelo couldn't even beat out Foster...and that is very telling. When I watch him play, I just don't see a starting NFL RB; I see a 3rd down back. 130 carries, 530 yards 2 TDs35 receptions, 280, 1 TD

What he said....If you can't beat out Foster get ready for the Amp Lee comparisons....

So what will all of you guys say after Stewart doesn't beat out Williams this year and is stuck in a RBBC?

 

[Biabreakable]

Plastik,First, let me say thanks for the excellent write-up.Second, let me say that I don't see it this way at all. I honestly think the Panthers are in a win now mode and didn't draft Stewart and Otah if they felt secure in Williams' ability to be the offensive engine. To my mind, everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse IMHO. I could certainly envision a committee approach, but I think as the season wears on Stewart will be more and more of the total offensive package.

I don't think the Panthers drafted Stewart 13th overall to share carries. DeAngelo couldn't even beat out Foster...and that is very telling. When I watch him play, I just don't see a starting NFL RB; I see a 3rd down back. 130 carries, 530 yards 2 TDs35 receptions, 280, 1 TD

What he said....If you can't beat out Foster get ready for the Amp Lee comparisons....

Moo.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

One thing people have not mentioned is the Panther's having a new Offensive Coordinator. They were not running the power game like they have in the past. Now with the new OC in town, I fully expect the Panthers to be a power run type of offense. Several things support this theory including what they did in the draft. With that being said, the Panthers need a power back to make this type of offense work. When you think of D'Angelo Williams, do you honestly think "power back"? I hope not. He's not built to be a power back. All this being said, Dwill will start the season as the Panther starting RB, but that does not mean he will be more productive. When the Panthers are in the red zone, I would almost guarantee people you won't see DWill anywhere on the field. Stewart will be the main goal line threat on this team. Stewart will not only produce better stats than DWill, but I would not be surprised to see him win the Rookie of the Year.

 

[maxwelledison]

Plastik,First, let me say thanks for the excellent write-up.Second, let me say that I don't see it this way at all. I honestly think the Panthers are in a win now mode and didn't draft Stewart and Otah if they felt secure in Williams' ability to be the offensive engine. To my mind, everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse IMHO. I could certainly envision a committee approach, but I think as the season wears on Stewart will be more and more of the total offensive package.

I don't think the Panthers drafted Stewart 13th overall to share carries. DeAngelo couldn't even beat out Foster...and that is very telling. When I watch him play, I just don't see a starting NFL RB; I see a 3rd down back. 130 carries, 530 yards 2 TDs35 receptions, 280, 1 TD

What he said....If you can't beat out Foster get ready for the Amp Lee comparisons....

That some still use the "If he can't beat out Foster" rationale blows my mind. People need to start considering who is making the decisions when they make an appeal to "so-and-so is starting" or "they drafted him fifth overall" or any similar reference to the decision-makers in an organization. It is a very, very different thing when the Colts, Patriots, Steelers or wherever-Parcells-happens-to-be make a decision vs. when the Bears, Cardinals or Lions make a decision.Different posters will give you different reasons why Fox preferred Foster (i.e. vets over newbies) and some of them have merit. Still, the most significant part of the equation is pretty simple: Fox is dumb.

 

[JamesTheScot]

One thing people have not mentioned is the Panther's having a new Offensive Coordinator. They were not running the power game like they have in the past. Now with the new OC in town, I fully expect the Panthers to be a power run type of offense. Several things support this theory including what they did in the draft. With that being said, the Panthers need a power back to make this type of offense work. When you think of D'Angelo Williams, do you honestly think "power back"? I hope not. He's not built to be a power back.

Emmitt Smith 5'9", 207#DeAngelo Williams 5'8", 210#Maurice Jones-Drew 5'7.5", 210#"Power Running" is determined more by the blocking execution and the play design than the back who totes the rock.This is even more true when you have two RB's with different physical dimensions who are situationally substituted based upon the play called.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

One thing people have not mentioned is the Panther's having a new Offensive Coordinator. They were not running the power game like they have in the past. Now with the new OC in town, I fully expect the Panthers to be a power run type of offense. Several things support this theory including what they did in the draft. With that being said, the Panthers need a power back to make this type of offense work. When you think of D'Angelo Williams, do you honestly think "power back"? I hope not. He's not built to be a power back.

Emmitt Smith 5'9", 207#DeAngelo Williams 5'8", 210#Maurice Jones-Drew 5'7.5", 210#"Power Running" is determined more by the blocking execution and the play design than the back who totes the rock.This is even more true when you have two RB's with different physical dimensions who are situationally substituted based upon the play called.

Going to have to disagree here. By your definision this would be every other starting RB in the NFL wouldn't it? Look the Panthers are going to ask their RB's to run North/South and between the tackles. D'Angelo Williams is not built to take the kind of beating this type of offense requires. I'm not debating DWill won't be starting, b/c Fox will be loyal to him just like he was to Foster. DWill to me is over valued this year simply b/c he's a "starting" RB, but the Panthers drafting Stewart should speak volumes about what they think of DeAngelo and the offense being run this year. Stewart to me is the RB to have on the Panthers this year.

 

[Duke1948]

I don't think the Panthers drafted Stewart 13th overall to share carries. DeAngelo couldn't even beat out Foster...and that is very telling. When I watch him play, I just don't see a starting NFL RB; I see a 3rd down back.

130 carries, 530 yards 2 TDs

35 receptions, 280, 1 TD

don't think Williams is that bad that his carries/yards will fall that much......don't think Stewart is that good that he will get 300+ carries. i own both.

 

[TheFanatic]

Plastik,First, let me say thanks for the excellent write-up.Second, let me say that I don't see it this way at all. I honestly think the Panthers are in a win now mode and didn't draft Stewart and Otah if they felt secure in Williams' ability to be the offensive engine. To my mind, everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse IMHO. I could certainly envision a committee approach, but I think as the season wears on Stewart will be more and more of the total offensive package.

I don't think the Panthers drafted Stewart 13th overall to share carries. DeAngelo couldn't even beat out Foster...and that is very telling. When I watch him play, I just don't see a starting NFL RB; I see a 3rd down back. 130 carries, 530 yards 2 TDs35 receptions, 280, 1 TD

What he said....If you can't beat out Foster get ready for the Amp Lee comparisons....

So what will all of you guys say after Stewart doesn't beat out Williams this year and is stuck in a RBBC?

I will say that I was wrong on this prediction What else would I say....

 

[JamesTheScot]

One thing people have not mentioned is the Panther's having a new Offensive Coordinator. They were not running the power game like they have in the past. Now with the new OC in town, I fully expect the Panthers to be a power run type of offense. Several things support this theory including what they did in the draft. With that being said, the Panthers need a power back to make this type of offense work. When you think of D'Angelo Williams, do you honestly think "power back"? I hope not. He's not built to be a power back.

Emmitt Smith 5'9", 207#DeAngelo Williams 5'8", 210#

Maurice Jones-Drew 5'7.5", 210#

"Power Running" is determined more by the blocking execution and the play design than the back who totes the rock.

This is even more true when you have two RB's with different physical dimensions who are situationally substituted based upon the play called.

Going to have to disagree here. By your definision this would be every other starting RB in the NFL wouldn't it? Look the Panthers are going to ask their RB's to run North/South and between the tackles. D'Angelo Williams is not built to take the kind of beating this type of offense requires. I'm not debating DWill won't be starting, b/c Fox will be loyal to him just like he was to Foster. DWill to me is over valued this year simply b/c he's a "starting" RB, but the Panthers drafting Stewart should speak volumes about what they think of DeAngelo and the offense being run this year. Stewart to me is the RB to have on the Panthers this year.

Emmitt Smith took that pounding running north-south and even turned it into a career long enough to set NFL records that may never be broken!That's my point. You can't point to DW's size and simply say "he isn't built like a north-south runner and can't take the hits". There are plenty of other "north-south" runners who have similar size and have been feature backs.

There was a thread on here IIRC that talked about the 200# line of demarcation with RB's.

5'8" and 210# is a pretty thick, compact proportion. See MJD.

Is Fox stupid enough to arbitrarily believe that a 210# back can't be an every down back? Probably. I don't put anything past Fox at this point.

DW has the physical size to be an every down back. His quickness and agility may make him seem smaller than he is and some seem to have that impression. But if Carolina can block up the middle, he's big enough to take it between the tackles and he's also quick enough to make people miss once he gets into the second level.

BTW, I'm not betting against Stewart getting 15+ carries per game by the end of the year. I think Stewart is a talent as well.

I'm simply saying that the assertion that a 210# RB can't carry the load in the NFL in a "power running game" is a myth IMHO.

 

[David Yudkin]

If Williams were as good as some are suggesting, why did he not get a bigger workload all along and why did they just use their #13 pick on a RB? Perhaps the coaching staff is not as up on Williams as some of the people posting here . . .

 

[Chairshot]

It's been mentioned before about John Fox and his judgment of talent but I'll just add that I personally don't think John Fox is that good of a coach. Why DW didn't get more carries over the past 2 years is totally beyond me. The way they drafted this year is beyond me.

Sometimes you just have to look at the coach and wonder if he will make the "right" decision. I think DW would be fine as a full time starter. To me, he has all the ability Tiki Barber had, just not the opportunity.

We are talking about the same organization that traded a 2nd rounder, a 4th rounder and a future 1st rounder for Jeff Otah. I'm sure Otah will be fine, but that's just too much to give up.

I think we often assume that the people running NFL teams know what they are doing. Some head coaches and front offices don't really seem to be as smart as we give them credit for.

Personally, I don't trust Fox to "do the right thing", for lack of a better term. What he does with his RB situation is a total crap shoot, in my mind. My gut feeling tells me that DW will get significantly more carries then Stewart, but I really have no hard evidence or real confidence to back that up.

DW is going in the middle of the 7th round in most leagues. I personally feel like he is more then capable of carrying a full time load and of being a top 12 fantasy RB. If I can get him in the 7th or 8th, I'll probably take him on the chance that Fox plays him the bulk of the touches, especially in PPR leagues (because I feel like he has very good pass catching abilities if given the right amount of targets).

IF DW gets the playing time I feel he deserves, I think he could do:

250 carries, 1100 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, 40 catches, 350 receiving yards, 3 receiving TDs for about 200 FP and a bottom of the top 12 type finish.

I just wish I had even a small amount of confidence that he would actually get the playing time he deserves.

 

[frank_da_tank]

Personally, I think Fox is a moron. He kept playing De Foster way past the time to pull him. The only time De Wil got 20 touches last year against Tampa he ran for 121 and two scores. I really don't think he got the shot he deserved.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

If Williams were as good as some are suggesting, why did he not get a bigger workload all along and why did they just use their #13 pick on a RB? Perhaps the coaching staff is not as up on Williams as some of the people posting here . . .

Exactly my point Yudkin. If they were convinced DWill could carry the load, they would not have gotten the best overall RB in the draft in Stewart. I'm shocked that this many people feel this strong about DWill. I'm a huge Carolina fan living hear in Charlotte, so I know the organization fairly well. The reason Fox stuck with Foster so long is because he wanted to be loyal to him. That's Fox's biggest weakness. He's very loyal to his players. It may very well cost him his job because a lot of people are screaming for his head now in NC. I think the Panthers are headed in the right direction though. The Panthers had one of the better drafts, and although they paid a price for Otah, they knew they needed an offensive lineman to run their new offense and they got who they wanted. As I stated before, I think D'Angelo will start the season as their primary back. How long he keeps it is another story.

 

[Tau837]

If Williams were as good as some are suggesting, why did he not get a bigger workload all along and why did they just use their #13 pick on a RB? Perhaps the coaching staff is not as up on Williams as some of the people posting here . . .

The Panthers took Foster in the second, but it was the 34th pick in the draft, so it was very close to a first round pick. And they took Williams with the 27th pick. For those who think Williams isn't a good RB, why do you think the Panthers have suddenly figured it out? Just because the Stewart pick was earlier in the draft?Is it truly that the Panthers have made poor draft choices, or is it that they haven't used their draft choices correctly? IMO it is the latter.I'm not sure what to expect from Fox. It wouldn't surprise me to see Stewart excel and be featured... or for Williams to get the lion's share, as the past veteran RBs have under Fox... or to see a full blown RBBC.Regardless, I agree with the poster above who said Williams is talented enough to be a very good feature back. If Stewart disappoints... or Williams excels when given the first chance... or Stewart gets hurt... Williams will prove to be undervalued. And I can't really see any circumstance other than a Williams injury in which he will turn out to be overvalued.

 

[mdog1967]

Plastik,First, let me say thanks for the excellent write-up.Second, let me say that I don't see it this way at all. I honestly think the Panthers are in a win now mode and didn't draft Stewart and Otah if they felt secure in Williams' ability to be the offensive engine. To my mind, everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse IMHO. I could certainly envision a committee approach, but I think as the season wears on Stewart will be more and more of the total offensive package.

I don't think the Panthers drafted Stewart 13th overall to share carries. DeAngelo couldn't even beat out Foster...and that is very telling. When I watch him play, I just don't see a starting NFL RB; I see a 3rd down back. 130 carries, 530 yards 2 TDs35 receptions, 280, 1 TD

Im on the Stew train, you and Jason have laid out the obvious. Williams may indeed see a split at the start of the season, I wouldn't count on it unless injury strikes early. 5-7 carries a game at a decent 4.0 average and 20 catches out of the backfield. 320-448 yards rushing, 150 receiving and 2 TD's. Look for a bounce back from Deli and Smith, the only question will be the 700 yards receiving by the number 2 WR - As in Who will step up to the plate.Stew wins ROY with a very decent 1400 yards and 12 rushing TD's. 320 carries avg 4.6 yards. 45 receptions for 350 yards and 3 TD's. 1720 Total and 15 TD's.

 

[David Yudkin]

Plastik,First, let me say thanks for the excellent write-up.Second, let me say that I don't see it this way at all. I honestly think the Panthers are in a win now mode and didn't draft Stewart and Otah if they felt secure in Williams' ability to be the offensive engine. To my mind, everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse IMHO. I could certainly envision a committee approach, but I think as the season wears on Stewart will be more and more of the total offensive package.

I don't think the Panthers drafted Stewart 13th overall to share carries. DeAngelo couldn't even beat out Foster...and that is very telling. When I watch him play, I just don't see a starting NFL RB; I see a 3rd down back. 130 carries, 530 yards 2 TDs35 receptions, 280, 1 TD

Im on the Stew train, you and Jason have laid out the obvious. Williams may indeed see a split at the start of the season, I wouldn't count on it unless injury strikes early. 5-7 carries a game at a decent 4.0 average and 20 catches out of the backfield. 320-448 yards rushing, 150 receiving and 2 TD's. Look for a bounce back from Deli and Smith, the only question will be the 700 yards receiving by the number 2 WR - As in Who will step up to the plate.Stew wins ROY with a very decent 1400 yards and 12 rushing TD's. 320 carries avg 4.6 yards. 45 receptions for 350 yards and 3 TD's. 1720 Total and 15 TD's.

Let's not get crazy here. The Panthers RB production the past few years have been pretty mediocre. Between Stew and DWill, you have them totaling 2350 yds, 17 TD = 337 fantasy points. Last year, all their RBs combined for 260 and the year before that 267.

 

[Biabreakable]

If Williams were as good as some are suggesting, why did he not get a bigger workload all along and why did they just use their #13 pick on a RB? Perhaps the coaching staff is not as up on Williams as some of the people posting here . . .

Anarchy,I am curious as to why you think it is that Williams did not get a larger workload than he did when in every measurable way Williams outperformed Foster? I have allready described my objective view on this situation with projections above. If you find anything about this lacking sound logic by all means point it out. I do not know if you have finished projections for the Panthers offense yet or not. If you have I would be interested to see them. This is certainly one of the more controversial and uncertain situations going into the 2008 season.I will say this though. Fox is on the hotseat if the Panthers do not improve this season. I do think think the way he has managed the RBs is one of the reasons they have lost more games than perhaps they should have and therefore is one of the reasons why Fox is on the hotseat now. This is the same team that rolled the dice on Carr as their backup QB last season. That did not end up being a very good move did it? There have been several poor decisions made by this franchise. Maybe how they have not used DeAngelo Williams enough is one of them. The front office does seem to have given Fox the power to do things his way based off of the drafting of Stewart @ pick 13 (when they instead could have drafted Oline) and then trading away a future 1st + 2nd and 4th round pick to draft OT Otah. If these moves do not lead to lead to significant improvement for the Panthers this season then Fox is likely gone but anyway you slice it doesent seem like the maximising of their resources (draft picks) to me.If DeAngelo Williams had sucked when given the opportunity then this would all make a lot more sense. But in every game that Williams has had 10 carries or more in a game over his 2 years in the league he has averaged 5.16 YPC. I wouldn't call that sucking at all.In any case I am curious to hear why you think Fox and the Panthers front office know what they are doing and why us outsiders cannot see whats going on.

 

[gianmarco]

I think something that people are completely ignoring as a possibility is this.

Stewart is NOT going to be the starter in Week 1. It's simply not going to happen. As such, DeAngelo will have the majority of the carries to start the season, as many have predicted above who are selling him short.

What's gonna happen when he strings together some solid games to start the year? Not saying it's a certainty, but given how well he has performed during his first 2 years, particularly last year in a horrible situation and rushing for over 5.0 ypc on 144 carries, it is DEFINITELY a possibility.

If he does this, they aren't going to relegate him to the #2 spot just because Stewart is bigger or was drafted in the mid 1st round. Factor in that they have 5 games in a row against Atl, KC, TB, NO, and Arizona in weeks 4-8 and he could very well string together some beauties.

Let me add that this is what the game logs look for DeAngelo in EVERY game he's had double digit carries since he entered the NFL:

13/74/1 (5.7 ypc)

20/114/0 (5.7 ypc)

17/63/0 (3.7 ypc)

17/74/0 and 7/101/1 (4.4 ypc)

21/82 (3.9 ypc)

15/62 (4.1 ypc)

11/47 (4.3 ypc)

10/121/1 (12.1 ypc)

17/82 (4.8 ypc)

15/61/1 (4.1 ypc)

10/60/0 (6.0 ypc)

20/121/2 (6.0 ypc)

Total -- 186/961 = 5.2 ypc in games with 10+ carries

Oh, and 86% of his total carries in his career have come on either 1st or 2nd down. In fact, he had a 5.2 ypc on 1st downs in 2007 (68 of 144 carries).

DeAngelo is NOT just a 3rd down/COP back. I think people are underestimating the very real possibility that he starts off hot and doesn't hand the job over by mid season as practically everyone is expecting.

ETA---The excuse that Williams couldn't beat out Foster is old and worn out. Welker couldn't beat out Marty Booker in his 4th season in the NFL with the Dolphins in 2006 for the #2 WR spot on the team. If only that were the only example of a better player seeing less time than a more inferior player. Given Fox's history with keeping younger RB's shelved, I'm not surprised at all. I would also argue that he DID beat out Foster by the end of 2007 looking at Williams' large increase in carriest during 4 of the last 5 games compared to the rest of the year and the subsequent trade of Foster.

 

[David Yudkin]

If Williams were as good as some are suggesting, why did he not get a bigger workload all along and why did they just use their #13 pick on a RB? Perhaps the coaching staff is not as up on Williams as some of the people posting here . . .

Anarchy,I am curious as to why you think it is that Williams did not get a larger workload than he did when in every measurable way Williams outperformed Foster? I have allready described my objective view on this situation with projections above. If you find anything about this lacking sound logic by all means point it out. I do not know if you have finished projections for the Panthers offense yet or not. If you have I would be interested to see them. This is certainly one of the more controversial and uncertain situations going into the 2008 season.I will say this though. Fox is on the hotseat if the Panthers do not improve this season. I do think think the way he has managed the RBs is one of the reasons they have lost more games than perhaps they should have and therefore is one of the reasons why Fox is on the hotseat now. This is the same team that rolled the dice on Carr as their backup QB last season. That did not end up being a very good move did it? There have been several poor decisions made by this franchise. Maybe how they have not used DeAngelo Williams enough is one of them. The front office does seem to have given Fox the power to do things his way based off of the drafting of Stewart @ pick 13 (when they instead could have drafted Oline) and then trading away a future 1st + 2nd and 4th round pick to draft OT Otah. If these moves do not lead to lead to significant improvement for the Panthers this season then Fox is likely gone but anyway you slice it doesent seem like the maximising of their resources (draft picks) to me.If DeAngelo Williams had sucked when given the opportunity then this would all make a lot more sense. But in every game that Williams has had 10 carries or more in a game over his 2 years in the league he has averaged 5.16 YPC. I wouldn't call that sucking at all.In any case I am curious to hear why you think Fox and the Panthers front office know what they are doing and why us outsiders cannot see whats going on.

I don't really follow the Panthers, so I generally would defer to those that do.However, as an outsider I can say that I find the way that Fox has handled the RB situation over the years a bit perplexing (that much I have followed). For the first 2/3 of his time in CAR, Fox really used a primary back mantra. It may not appear that way in looking only at the year end totals, but with injuries mixed in and several guys getting hurt it was hard to tell. Overall, the guy getting the ball week to week (whomever it was) would get the ball roughly 20 times a game.However, the past two years he got away from that. I know the story that he prefers his veteran players and wants to stick with "his guys," but it was clear in the past that Foster was a better back than Davis yet it seemd to take forever and a day for him to make the switch . . . even after Davis had major knee surgery. Then it became just as clear that Williams was more productive than Foster, yet Williams and Foster split time (or Foster was the starter and Williams only saw more time when Foster was nicked up).Things were set up for what should have been the right outcome (Foster gone, Williams primed to be the featured back). But then they took Stewart and once again screwed things up royally. I find that call exceedingly odd, as Carolina had bigger fish to fry in the first round than another RB.Now, my opinion would hold that if they didn't want to play Stewart then why would they draft him? If they really wanted Williams to be the guy, then why take him. Similarly, they could have anyone on the free agent market for peanuts (and then used the first round pick on other pressing needs).At this point, I wouldn't really want either guy fantasy wise, as they will probably both go higher than I would want to take them (although who knows in early July what the market will bear in late August). IMO, Fox has botched the running back situation for years now, so who the heck knows what his master plan is. The Foster pick made more sense, as they had just signed Davis and he was already 29 years old coming off almost 1200 carries over a 4 year stretch. But Williams is only 25 (and as I mentioned there are quite a few RB options at free agent that could be had pretty cheaply at this point).The only thing I can think is that the team doesn't feel D-Will is an every play, high carry RB (why I don't know). That would be a possible explanation, but he averaged 27 carries a game his last two years at Memphis. So to answer your question, I don't think drafting Stewart made a whole lot of sense.

 

[gianmarco]

If Williams were as good as some are suggesting, why did he not get a bigger workload all along and why did they just use their #13 pick on a RB? Perhaps the coaching staff is not as up on Williams as some of the people posting here . . .

Anarchy,I am curious as to why you think it is that Williams did not get a larger workload than he did when in every measurable way Williams outperformed Foster? I have allready described my objective view on this situation with projections above. If you find anything about this lacking sound logic by all means point it out. I do not know if you have finished projections for the Panthers offense yet or not. If you have I would be interested to see them. This is certainly one of the more controversial and uncertain situations going into the 2008 season.I will say this though. Fox is on the hotseat if the Panthers do not improve this season. I do think think the way he has managed the RBs is one of the reasons they have lost more games than perhaps they should have and therefore is one of the reasons why Fox is on the hotseat now. This is the same team that rolled the dice on Carr as their backup QB last season. That did not end up being a very good move did it? There have been several poor decisions made by this franchise. Maybe how they have not used DeAngelo Williams enough is one of them. The front office does seem to have given Fox the power to do things his way based off of the drafting of Stewart @ pick 13 (when they instead could have drafted Oline) and then trading away a future 1st + 2nd and 4th round pick to draft OT Otah. If these moves do not lead to lead to significant improvement for the Panthers this season then Fox is likely gone but anyway you slice it doesent seem like the maximising of their resources (draft picks) to me.If DeAngelo Williams had sucked when given the opportunity then this would all make a lot more sense. But in every game that Williams has had 10 carries or more in a game over his 2 years in the league he has averaged 5.16 YPC. I wouldn't call that sucking at all.In any case I am curious to hear why you think Fox and the Panthers front office know what they are doing and why us outsiders cannot see whats going on.

I don't really follow the Panthers, so I generally would defer to those that do.However, as an outsider I can say thta I find the way that Fox has handled the RB situation over the years a bit perplexing (that much I have followed). For the first 2/3 of his time in CAR, Fox really used a primary back mantra. It may not appear that way in looking only at the year end totals, but with injuries mixed in and several guys getting hurt it was hard to tell. Overall, the guy getting the ball week to week (whomever it was) would get the ball roughly 20 times a game.However, the past two years he got away from that. I know the story that he prefers his veteran players and wants to stick with "his guys," but it was clear in the past that Foster was a better back than Davis yet it seemd to take forever and a day for him to make the switch . . . ever after David had major knee surgery. Then it became just as clear that Williams was more productive than Foster, yet Williams and Foster split time (or Foster was the starter and Williams only saw more time when Foster was nicked up).Things were set up for what should have been the right outcome (Foster gone, Williams primed to be the featured back). But then they took Stewart and once again screwed things up royally. I find that call exceedingly odd, as Carolina had bigger fish to fry in the first round than another RB.Now, my opinion would hold that if they didn't want to play Stewart then why would they draft him? If they really wanted Williams to be the guy, then why take him. Similarly, they could have anyone on the free agent market for peanuts (and then used the first round pick on other pressing needs).At this point, I wouldn't really want either guy fantasy wise, as they will probably both go higher than I would want to take them (although who knows in early July what the market will bear in late August). IMO, Fox has botched the running back situation for years now, so who the heck knows what his master plan is. The Foster pick made more sense, as they had just signed Davis and he was already 29 years old coming off almost 1200 carries over a 4 year stretch. But Williams is only 25 (and as I mentioned there are quite a few RB options at free agent that could be had pretty cheaply at this point).The only thing I can think is that the team doesn't feel D-Will is an every play, high carry RB (why I don't know). That would be a possible explanation, but he averaged 27 carries a game his last two years at Memphis. So to answer your question, I don't think drafting Stewart made a whole lot of sense.

This is a I don't know what they are doing either but I think it will finally be made clear this year. If Stewart sits behind Williams, then we will know that he truly is more loyal to more veteran guys. If not, then we'll know they don't believe in Williams but then one would have to wonder why the drafted him in the 1st round just 2 short years ago.The next question that may be asked in the future is if Stewart is mired in a RBBC for this year and next and Carolina takes another RB in the 1st round. Will Stewart be as quickly forgotten as Williams has been? The mind-boggling thing is it's not as if this guy hasn't put up #'s when on the field.Of note, I own neither DeAngelo nor Stewart in any league as I find the whole Carolina RB situation a mess and just something to be avoided until proven otherwise. Been way too long since they've put up decent fantasy #'s on a consistent basis from one guy.

 

[plastik]

What's gonna happen when he strings together some solid games to start the year? Not saying it's a certainty, but given how well he has performed during his first 2 years, particularly last year in a horrible situation and rushing for over 5.0 ypc on 144 carries, it is DEFINITELY a possibility.

This is what I'm saying. Game 1 they play SDC - a very good defense - but if Williams gets something like 18 att and 4 catches he could put together a 100 yard 1 td performance that, last season, would have put him in the lower ragnge of the top-10 RB's for week 1. And those numbers are projected with his averages at a little over 4 (rushing) and 7 (receiving) - quite modest and well below his career averages which have been produced on, what should be, less potent offenses. The following week they play the Bears, a much more porous defense. If he gets 20 touches (between carries and receptions) per game for the first five games (SDC, CHI, MIN, ATL, KC) he could put up very respectable numbers with his upside in the top 10-20 RBs. We'll see, but even at his floor I expect DWill to out perform his ADP. He's currently RB33 on this site's ADP list and he finished last season around RB34... IMO, There is NO way, short of injury, that he sees less touches and less production than he did last season. I think that anyone who thinks otherwise has their judgement clouded by their evaluation of Stewarts Talent level - which while very high - isn't so much higher than DWill's (IMO) to keep DWill's production to where those on the low end have predicted.

 

[Boone22]

From the Blogger this morning...

July 2, 2008, 01:55

Panthers :: RB

Panthers RB Williams Improves Pass Blocking Skills

Darin Gantt, Sporting News - [Full Article]

Carolina Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams has reportedly shown substantial improvement in his pass protecting skills this off-season, to the point where the team feels it can trust him in that role.

So is it possible that the reason DWill didn't beat out Foster last year was due to Fox not trusting him to protect the QB? Everyone is focusing on DWill's production but maybe he has just sucked at pass protection the last few years and the coaches didn't trust him to protect the QB in obvious passing downs.

 

[switz]

He'll begin the year as the starter, but I'm not sure that he'll end it as such. I think that he'll shine from the start, but I think that we'll probably be looking at an RBBC by seasons end.

Floor in a full-on RBBC:

Rushing 180/850/3

Receiving 30/220/2

Ceiling if he gets the bulk of the work:

Rushing 210/1000/6

Receiving 45/350/3

Honestly, I think Williams is undervalued heading into this season.

I'd be shocked if Williams reaches anywhere close to those numbers, either set.Williams has been in Carolina for a few years now, and the coaches realize he's simply not starting material. Hence the decision to draft Jonathon Stewart. Additionally, the coaching staff is moving toward a power running game like they had with Stephen Davis, which is not Williams forte at all.

The only issue that may get Williams more playing time is an injury to Stewart, which is a real possibility. But I don't project a possibility like that unless there's solid historical evidence. Hence, if I were to project Williams for this year, it would be:

90 carries, 440 yards, 2 TDs

35 receptions, 300 yards, 1 TD

Williams will see most of his work on third downs, and will have a high YPC, and will continue to have people thinking he's better than he actually is.

 

[mdog1967]

Plastik,First, let me say thanks for the excellent write-up.Second, let me say that I don't see it this way at all. I honestly think the Panthers are in a win now mode and didn't draft Stewart and Otah if they felt secure in Williams' ability to be the offensive engine. To my mind, everything the Panthers have done this offseason has been about reestablishing an identity of a ball-control, power running team and that plays into Stewart's wheelhouse IMHO. I could certainly envision a committee approach, but I think as the season wears on Stewart will be more and more of the total offensive package.

I don't think the Panthers drafted Stewart 13th overall to share carries. DeAngelo couldn't even beat out Foster...and that is very telling. When I watch him play, I just don't see a starting NFL RB; I see a 3rd down back. 130 carries, 530 yards 2 TDs35 receptions, 280, 1 TD

Im on the Stew train, you and Jason have laid out the obvious. Williams may indeed see a split at the start of the season, I wouldn't count on it unless injury strikes early. 5-7 carries a game at a decent 4.0 average and 20 catches out of the backfield. 320-448 yards rushing, 150 receiving and 2 TD's. Look for a bounce back from Deli and Smith, the only question will be the 700 yards receiving by the number 2 WR - As in Who will step up to the plate.Stew wins ROY with a very decent 1400 yards and 12 rushing TD's. 320 carries avg 4.6 yards. 45 receptions for 350 yards and 3 TD's. 1720 Total and 15 TD's.

Let's not get crazy here. The Panthers RB production the past few years have been pretty mediocre. Between Stew and DWill, you have them totaling 2350 yds, 17 TD = 337 fantasy points. Last year, all their RBs combined for 260 and the year before that 267.

Its why they call it Fantasy Football Dave Yeah its a Lot more than they have done in a while, but why not think big!!

 

[Knight who says Ni]

I'd be shocked if Williams reaches anywhere close to those numbers, either set.

Williams has been in Carolina for a few years now, and the coaches realize he's simply not starting material. Hence the decision to draft Jonathon Stewart. Additionally, the coaching staff is moving toward a power running game like they had with Stephen Davis, which is not Williams forte at all.

The only issue that may get Williams more playing time is an injury to Stewart, which is a real possibility. But I don't project a possibility like that unless there's solid historical evidence. Hence, if I were to project Williams for this year, it would be:

90 carries, 440 yards, 2 TDs

35 receptions, 300 yards, 1 TD

Williams will see most of his work on third downs, and will have a high YPC, and will continue to have people thinking he's better than he actually is.

I'm not very high on Williams, but those numbers look extremely low and seem to be based on the assumption that Stewart will be getting 60%-70% of all of the carries right out of the gate. In 2007 Williams had 144 carries for 717 yards and 4 TDs, if you want historical evidence. I don't know if I would predict much more than that, but I certainly wouldn't cut those numbers in half

 

[plastik]

90 carries, 440 yards, 2 TDs35 receptions, 300 yards, 1 TD

Wow. Seriously? So if Carolina runs the ball the same number of times as last season (451 att), the same number of carries go to players other than the top 2 RBs on the depth chart (60 att), and DWill gets the 90 carries that you've projected for him then that leaves 301 carries.So with your projections you're saying that one of the following happens:1. The Panthers run the ball less than last season, despite all signs pointing to establishing the running game.or2. Stewart is going to get 300 carries as a rookie (something that a rookie hasn't done since LT (339 carries as a rookie) who's only competition for carries was Terrell Fletcher) while the number of team carries will remain the same.or 3. The carries remaining after Stewart gets his will be more spread out amongst the rest of those who contibute.Personally, I dont think any of those things will happen, and I think your numbers are way off. I'd like to see what numbers you expect from Stewart in 2008... care to share?

 

[switz]

90 carries, 440 yards, 2 TDs35 receptions, 300 yards, 1 TD

Wow. Seriously? So if Carolina runs the ball the same number of times as last season (451 att), the same number of carries go to players other than the top 2 RBs on the depth chart (60 att), and DWill gets the 90 carries that you've projected for him then that leaves 301 carries.So with your projections you're saying that one of the following happens:1. The Panthers run the ball less than last season, despite all signs pointing to establishing the running game.or2. Stewart is going to get 300 carries as a rookie (something that a rookie hasn't done since LT (339 carries as a rookie) who's only competition for carries was Terrell Fletcher) while the number of team carries will remain the same.or 3. The carries remaining after Stewart gets his will be more spread out amongst the rest of those who contibute.Personally, I dont think any of those things will happen, and I think your numbers are way off. I'd like to see what numbers you expect from Stewart in 2008... care to share?

1. Signs point to establishing a running game, true. But the difference between Stewart and Foster is night and day (and I like Foster) and part of the reason they ran so much is their QB situation was a MESS. They will run about the same if I had to guess.2. Stewart probably will see 300 carries. As you said in point 1, they are trying to establish a running game.3. Williams will be the primary back up and 3rd down back at times. I just see him having a slightly smaller role than last season.

 

[MCguidance]

He'll begin the year as the starter, but I'm not sure that he'll end it as such. I think that he'll shine from the start, but I think that we'll probably be looking at an RBBC by seasons end.

Floor in a full-on RBBC:

Rushing 180/850/3

Receiving 30/220/2

Ceiling if he gets the bulk of the work:

Rushing 210/1000/6

Receiving 45/350/3

Honestly, I think Williams is undervalued heading into this season.

I'd be shocked if Williams reaches anywhere close to those numbers, either set.Williams has been in Carolina for a few years now, and the coaches realize he's simply not starting material. Hence the decision to draft Jonathon Stewart. Additionally, the coaching staff is moving toward a power running game like they had with Stephen Davis, which is not Williams forte at all.

The only issue that may get Williams more playing time is an injury to Stewart, which is a real possibility. But I don't project a possibility like that unless there's solid historical evidence. Hence, if I were to project Williams for this year, it would be:

90 carries, 440 yards, 2 TDs

35 receptions, 300 yards, 1 TD

Williams will see most of his work on third downs, and will have a high YPC, and will continue to have people thinking he's better than he actually is.

I just can't wrap my head around these numbers. What you basically predict is that Willaims will be relegated to inignificance this year. If that's the case, those numbers look about right.

 

[Chairshot]

1. Signs point to establishing a running game, true. But the difference between Stewart and Foster is night and day (and I like Foster) and part of the reason they ran so much is their QB situation was a MESS. They will run about the same if I had to guess.

2. Stewart probably will see 300 carries. As you said in point 1, they are trying to establish a running game.

3. Williams will be the primary back up and 3rd down back at times. I just see him having a slightly smaller role than last season.

Since the NFL-AFL merger, only 14 RB have carried the ball 300+ times in their rookie season. Only 2 of those seasons have come since 2000 - LaDainian Tomlinson and Jamal Lewis. One season was played by the best RB of his generation (and I don't think we are going to compare Stewart to Tomlinson just yet) and in the other season, the Ravens rushed the ball over 500 times (which I don't think we will see from the Panthers this year).I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying that history shows that rookie RBs don't get that many carries. That said, John Fox certainly has gone against what many people think he should have done when it comes to his RBs, so who knows.

 

[Biabreakable]

90 carries, 440 yards, 2 TDs35 receptions, 300 yards, 1 TD

Wow. Seriously? So if Carolina runs the ball the same number of times as last season (451 att), the same number of carries go to players other than the top 2 RBs on the depth chart (60 att), and DWill gets the 90 carries that you've projected for him then that leaves 301 carries.So with your projections you're saying that one of the following happens:1. The Panthers run the ball less than last season, despite all signs pointing to establishing the running game.or2. Stewart is going to get 300 carries as a rookie (something that a rookie hasn't done since LT (339 carries as a rookie) who's only competition for carries was Terrell Fletcher) while the number of team carries will remain the same.or 3. The carries remaining after Stewart gets his will be more spread out amongst the rest of those who contibute.Personally, I dont think any of those things will happen, and I think your numbers are way off. I'd like to see what numbers you expect from Stewart in 2008... care to share?

1. Signs point to establishing a running game, true. But the difference between Stewart and Foster is night and day (and I like Foster) and part of the reason they ran so much is their QB situation was a MESS. They will run about the same if I had to guess.2. Stewart probably will see 300 carries. As you said in point 1, they are trying to establish a running game.3. Williams will be the primary back up and 3rd down back at times. I just see him having a slightly smaller role than last season.

So even though you see the offense being recommited to the running game you see the total number of rushing attempts being the same as last year. When the offense had no QB and injuries to its offensive line causing the offense to be so inept that it really struggled to get 1st downs. Something is not adding up right. Will add total offensive plays, 1st downs and TOP later when I have time but I see all 3 of these important factors improving from 2007 to 2008. Why do you think the rushing attempts will be the same when you also seem to think that the QB situation and RB situations are improved?Based off of last years 451 carries you would still be a little low on your Stewart carries which would then be more like 310. If the rushing attempts increase.. they are trying to establish more of a running game right? If they increase to the range I am expecting 460-520 then your projected carries for Stewart will be 330-360. As a rookie. From a coaching staff that has repeatedly shown reluctance to trust rookies early on in their careers. From a rookie who is still recovering from an injury. From a rookie who hasn't even participated with the team activities yet.:shakeshead:

 

[David Yudkin]

1. Signs point to establishing a running game, true. But the difference between Stewart and Foster is night and day (and I like Foster) and part of the reason they ran so much is their QB situation was a MESS. They will run about the same if I had to guess.

2. Stewart probably will see 300 carries. As you said in point 1, they are trying to establish a running game.

3. Williams will be the primary back up and 3rd down back at times. I just see him having a slightly smaller role than last season.

Since the NFL-AFL merger, only 14 RB have carried the ball 300+ times in their rookie season. Only 2 of those seasons have come since 2000 - LaDainian Tomlinson and Jamal Lewis. One season was played by the best RB of his generation (and I don't think we are going to compare Stewart to Tomlinson just yet) and in the other season, the Ravens rushed the ball over 500 times (which I don't think we will see from the Panthers this year).I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying that history shows that rookie RBs don't get that many carries. That said, John Fox certainly has gone against what many people think he should have done when it comes to his RBs, so who knows.

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with you, but if you drop the number of carries down to 250, then the data set goes up to 36 times since 1970 with 13 of them in the past 10 seasons. So basically 1.3 times per year on average over the past 10 years.

 

[Chairshot]

This is interesting. I looked at it as well, and I noticed that 10 of those 13 came in 1998 - 2002...only one in 2007, none in 2006, one each in 2005 and 2004 and none in 2003 - making it only 3 in the past 5 years.

Given recent trends, it might even be more unlikely that Stewart will approach 300 carries then I thought...if the average for the past 5 years is less then well less than one player per season getting even 250 carries, it seems like the odds are against Stewart approaching 300.

Interesting stuff, for sure.

 

[Loan Sharks]

DeAngelo Williams is the real deal. He will start, put up very good numbers and Stewart will contribute more as the year goes on.

Stewart

G RSH YD Y/R TD TRG REC YD Y/R TD FPT RANK VBD

12 130 507 3.9 4 11 9 61 6.8 0 81

Williams

15 230 927 4.0 7 66 50 377 7.5 2 184

In a amazing coincidence I think Williams and Stewart will put up the exact same numbers as TjDuckett and Warrick Dunn did in 2002.

Hint Williams/Dunn was the one to have.