Player Spotlight: Donnie Avery (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Player Page Link: Donnie Avery Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Donnie will now be relied upon as the #1 WR for the Rams. He has adequate size and great speed, and showed some nice flashes as a rookie. I see really good things for Donnie this year and in the future as the Rams do a lot to get the ball in this playmaker's hands.

Rush: 8-55-0 Rec: 72-971-6

 

[foxco]

I think he'll have a good/very good season. Not top 10, but enough to really raise eyebrows. Yes, he'll be the focal point of defenses in the passing game but they will pass a lot, so he should have plenty of chances to put up solid #s.

81 catches, 1060 yds, 7 TDs

 

[Dr. Octopus]

While Avery didn't quite make the impact that fellow "smaller" WRs like Eddie Royal and Desean Jackson did during their rookie campaigns, he did show flashes of why he was the first WR drafted.

Simply put Avery can fly and showed the ability to get behind defenders and make the big play. On the plus side he should be the first look for QB Marc Bulger - who has shown, if not much else, the ability to get the ball deep - and the Rams should be playing from behind more often than not. It will take more than just Spag's aggressive play calling to turn the defense around in one season. On the flip side Avery will now be the opposing defense's focal point as well. While Holt wasn't the same last season he did command some respect from the defense. In my opinion Avery will be able to handle the task of being a #1 WR and will end up with more than a few highlight reel long TDs next season.

78 - 1,115 - 8 (with 35 rushing yards in addition)

 

[munchkin]

Donnie Avery has big play potential, as most Patriots fans know, but I admittedly don't know if he has the ability to run the short and intermediate routes well enough to keep the DB's honest. A healthy Steven Jackson should distract the safties enough to spring Avery loose deep often enough to make him effective.

An upright Bulger should get him the ball enough to hover around the 1,000 yard mark while averaging a touchdown every other game.

I am also hoping that Laurent Robinson stays healthy enough to provide another threat/option in the passing game.

 

[TheWick]

The Rams are atlest going to attempt to be a run first team, but I'm sure quite a few games will get away from them and they'll be playing catch up. Avery should see 120+ targets and end up with approx. 70 / 1000 / 7

 

[MAC_32]

Whether Donnie outproduces his draft position will depend on the development of a decent #2, Bulger not sucking, and the o line staying healthy for once. Avery's got talent, but he's more of the big play making type (think Santana Moss, Berrian, Mark Clayton) so his inconsistencies will be frustrating to some. Expect a quality WR3.5 that you can start knowing you have an equal chance of a big game as you do a goose egg and he should at least meet expectations.

 

[Banger]

Looking at some of these projections I think you guys are coming in way too high. Avery had one HUGE game of 163-1 which made up 30+% of his productivity for the year. Ya, ya, I know you can't discount big plays/big days but his numbers outside of that one day are very pedestrian (no 100 yard games, mostly 5 catches 50 yards). Ya their line was in shambles and it should be better this year but they are not going to be a passing offense by any stretch, they have no one to take pressure off him and he'll likely be doubled where last year I'm sure Holt even in his hobbled state took more coverage than Avery did.

He's a nice wr with some talent but I don't think he's elite and the Rams will probably be among the worst passing offenses in the league (how the mighty have fallen). Even if you draft him he'll be extemely frustrating because with his type of game he'll go 3-29, 4-45, you'll sit him he'll go 6-145-1, you'll start him and he'll go 3-22. He'll have no consistency and I want no part of that from my wr's which is why I've avoided Evans like the plague for years.

These predictions of 1000-7 and 1100-8 would've put him between 13th and 18th last year and I don't think he gets anywhere close to that. Think more along the lines of L. Evans (27th) (63-1017-3), Cotchery (30th) (71-858-5), Housh (31st) (92-904-4).

I'd probably project him for around 65-800-4.5 and finish around 35+ among wr's.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

this kind of call is why I love having this board.

 

[todisco1]

Looking at some of these projections I think you guys are coming in way too high. Avery had one HUGE game of 163-1 which made up 30+% of his productivity for the year. Ya, ya, I know you can't discount big plays/big days but his numbers outside of that one day are very pedestrian (no 100 yard games, mostly 5 catches 50 yards). Ya their line was in shambles and it should be better this year but they are not going to be a passing offense by any stretch, they have no one to take pressure off him and he'll likely be doubled where last year I'm sure Holt even in his hobbled state took more coverage than Avery did. He's a nice wr with some talent but I don't think he's elite and the Rams will probably be among the worst passing offenses in the league (how the mighty have fallen). Even if you draft him he'll be extemely frustrating because with his type of game he'll go 3-29, 4-45, you'll sit him he'll go 6-145-1, you'll start him and he'll go 3-22. He'll have no consistency and I want no part of that from my wr's which is why I've avoided Evans like the plague for years.These predictions of 1000-7 and 1100-8 would've put him between 13th and 18th last year and I don't think he gets anywhere close to that. Think more along the lines of L. Evans (27th) (63-1017-3), Cotchery (30th) (71-858-5), Housh (31st) (92-904-4).I'd probably project him for around 65-800-4.5 and finish around 35+ among wr's.

Good points, though I would say the Rams should be passing A LOT this year. Also, I think people are assuming, right or wrong, that Avery will have a progression from his rookie season and will be better. I don't really think the Cotchery/Housh comparisons are accurate because he's a completely different player and has excellent speed. Lee Evans is much more on the money, though. Although if you're just using them as comparisons for stats then I agree he could be in that ballpark, though I think he'll have a better ypc.I think he does decent, with 70 catches, 1050 yds, 5 TDs.

 

[superbeck1]

Didn't Avery struggle the last few weeks with a hip injury? that may explain some of his disappearing act.

:looking for link now:

 

[Banger]

Looking at some of these projections I think you guys are coming in way too high. Avery had one HUGE game of 163-1 which made up 30+% of his productivity for the year. Ya, ya, I know you can't discount big plays/big days but his numbers outside of that one day are very pedestrian (no 100 yard games, mostly 5 catches 50 yards). Ya their line was in shambles and it should be better this year but they are not going to be a passing offense by any stretch, they have no one to take pressure off him and he'll likely be doubled where last year I'm sure Holt even in his hobbled state took more coverage than Avery did. He's a nice wr with some talent but I don't think he's elite and the Rams will probably be among the worst passing offenses in the league (how the mighty have fallen). Even if you draft him he'll be extemely frustrating because with his type of game he'll go 3-29, 4-45, you'll sit him he'll go 6-145-1, you'll start him and he'll go 3-22. He'll have no consistency and I want no part of that from my wr's which is why I've avoided Evans like the plague for years.These predictions of 1000-7 and 1100-8 would've put him between 13th and 18th last year and I don't think he gets anywhere close to that. Think more along the lines of L. Evans (27th) (63-1017-3), Cotchery (30th) (71-858-5), Housh (31st) (92-904-4).I'd probably project him for around 65-800-4.5 and finish around 35+ among wr's.

Good points, though I would say the Rams should be passing A LOT this year. Also, I think people are assuming, right or wrong, that Avery will have a progression from his rookie season and will be better. I don't really think the Cotchery/Housh comparisons are accurate because he's a completely different player and has excellent speed. Lee Evans is much more on the money, though. Although if you're just using them as comparisons for stats then I agree he could be in that ballpark, though I think he'll have a better ypc.I think he does decent, with 70 catches, 1050 yds, 5 TDs.

Ya, I was comparing them for stat comparison sake not the types of players they are. Why should the Rams be passing a lot more this year than last year? They were absolutely terrible last year and behind in every game and they had 1 more attempt than the 32nd ranked Lions (444). They are talking about a ground and pound offense and while he should progress he also lost a bit of a security blanket in Holt. Even Holt wasn't in top form last year I'm sure the defensive coordinators playing St. Louis were looking to double him to stop the chains from moving. This year that double coverage will likely fall on Avery. To me a guy like Avery needs something else in the offense to be successful (which is why the Bills finally got a compliment to Evans). He needs that underneath guy or someone that's going to cause the defense to allow him to go one on one. I look at their wr's and they've got nothing IMO and teams are going to double him up, take away the deep ball and see if he/they can beat them some other way. If you and I know that he excels at the deep ball then so does every defensive coordinator in the NFL.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Looking at some of these projections I think you guys are coming in way too high. Avery had one HUGE game of 163-1 which made up 30+% of his productivity for the year. Ya, ya, I know you can't discount big plays/big days but his numbers outside of that one day are very pedestrian (no 100 yard games, mostly 5 catches 50 yards). Ya their line was in shambles and it should be better this year but they are not going to be a passing offense by any stretch, they have no one to take pressure off him and he'll likely be doubled where last year I'm sure Holt even in his hobbled state took more coverage than Avery did. He's a nice wr with some talent but I don't think he's elite and the Rams will probably be among the worst passing offenses in the league (how the mighty have fallen). Even if you draft him he'll be extemely frustrating because with his type of game he'll go 3-29, 4-45, you'll sit him he'll go 6-145-1, you'll start him and he'll go 3-22. He'll have no consistency and I want no part of that from my wr's which is why I've avoided Evans like the plague for years.These predictions of 1000-7 and 1100-8 would've put him between 13th and 18th last year and I don't think he gets anywhere close to that. Think more along the lines of L. Evans (27th) (63-1017-3), Cotchery (30th) (71-858-5), Housh (31st) (92-904-4).I'd probably project him for around 65-800-4.5 and finish around 35+ among wr's.

Good points, though I would say the Rams should be passing A LOT this year. Also, I think people are assuming, right or wrong, that Avery will have a progression from his rookie season and will be better. I don't really think the Cotchery/Housh comparisons are accurate because he's a completely different player and has excellent speed. Lee Evans is much more on the money, though. Although if you're just using them as comparisons for stats then I agree he could be in that ballpark, though I think he'll have a better ypc.I think he does decent, with 70 catches, 1050 yds, 5 TDs.

Ya, I was comparing them for stat comparison sake not the types of players they are. Why should the Rams be passing a lot more this year than last year? They were absolutely terrible last year and behind in every game and they had 1 more attempt than the 32nd ranked Lions (444). They are talking about a ground and pound offense and while he should progress he also lost a bit of a security blanket in Holt. Even Holt wasn't in top form last year I'm sure the defensive coordinators playing St. Louis were looking to double him to stop the chains from moving. This year that double coverage will likely fall on Avery. To me a guy like Avery needs something else in the offense to be successful (which is why the Bills finally got a compliment to Evans). He needs that underneath guy or someone that's going to cause the defense to allow him to go one on one. I look at their wr's and they've got nothing IMO and teams are going to double him up, take away the deep ball and see if he/they can beat them some other way. If you and I know that he excels at the deep ball then so does every defensive coordinator in the NFL.

I agree with much of this, but also think Burton is the superior route runner and on track to be a solid #2WR....able to run the underneath routes.

 

[nittanylion]

I think Burton is a supplementary WR at best, who is currently a Starter by default. Laurent Robinson however, is the catalyst that should allow Avery to achieve single coverage and exploit his shiftiness and speed. Robinson is talented enough to start over Burton, and possesses a skill set that compliments what Avery brings to the field. Burton certainly has a critical role to play in the Rams Offense, but I think the Rams would ultimately prefer to have a healthy Robinson on the field opposite Avery, with Burton on the field only when they go into multiple WR sets.

 

[3C's]

IIRC, a wide open Avery was missed (over/under thrown) several times last year. His td's and yardage numbers would have been considerably better.

 

[Banger]

IIRC, a wide open Avery was missed (over/under thrown) several times last year. His td's and yardage numbers would have been considerably better.

It happens to every wr. He'll have the same QB thowing him the ball this year so I wouldn't expect the accuracy to change much.

 

[TheWick]

Looking at some of these projections I think you guys are coming in way too high. Avery had one HUGE game of 163-1 which made up 30+% of his productivity for the year. Ya, ya, I know you can't discount big plays/big days but his numbers outside of that one day are very pedestrian (no 100 yard games, mostly 5 catches 50 yards). Ya their line was in shambles and it should be better this year but they are not going to be a passing offense by any stretch, they have no one to take pressure off him and he'll likely be doubled where last year I'm sure Holt even in his hobbled state took more coverage than Avery did. He's a nice wr with some talent but I don't think he's elite and the Rams will probably be among the worst passing offenses in the league (how the mighty have fallen). Even if you draft him he'll be extemely frustrating because with his type of game he'll go 3-29, 4-45, you'll sit him he'll go 6-145-1, you'll start him and he'll go 3-22. He'll have no consistency and I want no part of that from my wr's which is why I've avoided Evans like the plague for years.These predictions of 1000-7 and 1100-8 would've put him between 13th and 18th last year and I don't think he gets anywhere close to that. Think more along the lines of L. Evans (27th) (63-1017-3), Cotchery (30th) (71-858-5), Housh (31st) (92-904-4).I'd probably project him for around 65-800-4.5 and finish around 35+ among wr's.

My numbers are assuming the Rams O gets better....I can't help it I'm a homer.He was banged up in camp last year then missed time in weeks 1 / 2 / 12 / 13 His numbers would have been very close to your projections last year had he been healthy and played in all games. Unless the Rams actually get worse (not sure if thats possible) I think your projection would be his absolute floor. The TDs are what alot of us might be a little high on. But I think 70 and close to 1000 are very attainable.

 

[Banger]

Looking at some of these projections I think you guys are coming in way too high. Avery had one HUGE game of 163-1 which made up 30+% of his productivity for the year. Ya, ya, I know you can't discount big plays/big days but his numbers outside of that one day are very pedestrian (no 100 yard games, mostly 5 catches 50 yards). Ya their line was in shambles and it should be better this year but they are not going to be a passing offense by any stretch, they have no one to take pressure off him and he'll likely be doubled where last year I'm sure Holt even in his hobbled state took more coverage than Avery did. He's a nice wr with some talent but I don't think he's elite and the Rams will probably be among the worst passing offenses in the league (how the mighty have fallen). Even if you draft him he'll be extemely frustrating because with his type of game he'll go 3-29, 4-45, you'll sit him he'll go 6-145-1, you'll start him and he'll go 3-22. He'll have no consistency and I want no part of that from my wr's which is why I've avoided Evans like the plague for years.These predictions of 1000-7 and 1100-8 would've put him between 13th and 18th last year and I don't think he gets anywhere close to that. Think more along the lines of L. Evans (27th) (63-1017-3), Cotchery (30th) (71-858-5), Housh (31st) (92-904-4).I'd probably project him for around 65-800-4.5 and finish around 35+ among wr's.

My numbers are assuming the Rams O gets better....I can't help it I'm a homer.He was banged up in camp last year then missed time in weeks 1 / 2 / 12 / 13 His numbers would have been very close to your projections last year had he been healthy and played in all games. Unless the Rams actually get worse (not sure if thats possible) I think your projection would be his absolute floor. The TDs are what alot of us might be a little high on. But I think 70 and close to 1000 are very attainable.

Good info. And he was a rookie to boot in a horrid situation (although I'm not sure it will be a ton better this year). Just to be clear..I'm not a hater, don't know a ton about Avery and didn't watch the Rams a lot last year but I'm taking synical POV as many often look for big improvements without a lot of anecdotal evidence. Getting in good back and forth debates usually brings good info to the surface by hardcore fans such as yourself. All that being said you haven't changed my mind yet.

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

by default i think the Rams offensive line will be better than last year......even tho it does seem every year they are decimated early on. the improved OL should of course should help Sjax. Bulger can be a very respectable QB given time. just the last few years he's been getting his face bashed in. Bulger is a extremely accurate and accurate timing thrower given a decent amount of time(that's if "David Carr-ism" hasn't set in). Bulger is a decent Matt Hasselback type QB for a WCO. even tho Avery will be running more short/timing patterns the run game balance from Sjax and healthy OL should lead to a few big play attempts a game from Avery on play action where he can showcase his speed.

Torry Holt is gone, so true more pressure and coverage will be rolled to Avery. on the flip side its just mathematics saying he will have more targets with Holt gone. Another year seasoned and hopefully totally recovered from his hip issue should elevate his stats.

the defense put simply won't be what spags wants this year and therefore many games they will be playing from behind(padding rec). normally a poor defense and WCO can lead to surprising fantasy #'s. WCO can often mask poorer OL play if u have quick WR and fairly accurate QB......and keep the chains/clock moving keeping opposing Offense off the field(masking defense somewhat).

Robinson and Burton are talented but extremely young and green just like Avery. The speed/athleticism of the trio possess will cause matchup problems. The X-factor to me is how much truth there is to Randy Mcmichael being healthy and being heavily involved in the offense Pat Shurmur is running. Randy can be the complete TE if healthy and used properly. McMichael/Burton should be competent 3rd down chainmovers.

i think Avery makes a stride in route running... and with his speed in a west coast offense he can have a breakout type season making his living in YAC with some long TD bombs sprinkled in. i'll forecast 78rec for 1250yards(16YPC) and 10total TD(9rec 1rushing).

i do have have Avery on my Taxi squad and plan on activating him to be 1of my starters in the not to distant future

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

i think Avery makes a stride in route running... and with his speed in a west coast offense he can have a breakout type season making his living in YAC with some long TD bombs sprinkled in. i'll forecast 78rec for 1250yards(16YPC) and 10total TD(9rec 1rushing). i do have have Avery on my Taxi squad and plan on activating him to be 1of my starters in the not to distant future

I am a Rams fan. I have Avery on my dynasty team. And that forecast is nutty. If your forecast comes true, I will be the happy winner of my league, but I think that would be his absolute pie-in-the-sky, everything goes exactly right ceiling.I think Avery will likely be in the 800+ yard range with some upside. 1000 yards wouldn't be crazy, but I doubt he reaches it this year.My projection:65 rec., 850 yards, 5 TDs50 yards rushingright around WR25

 

[treat88]

I think Burton is a supplementary WR at best, who is currently a Starter by default. Laurent Robinson however, is the catalyst that should allow Avery to achieve single coverage and exploit his shiftiness and speed. Robinson is talented enough to start over Burton, and possesses a skill set that compliments what Avery brings to the field. Burton certainly has a critical role to play in the Rams Offense, but I think the Rams would ultimately prefer to have a healthy Robinson on the field opposite Avery, with Burton on the field only when they go into multiple WR sets.

Hmm, I tend to see it just the opposite.With the precise route running and reliable hands that Burton possesses, I think he either becomes or grows into the perfect #2. His only question is health.Avery strikes me as more of a "big play" #1 WR in the mold of his predecessor Torry Holt. Maybe Torry Holt lite production wise.Again, Robinson seems like the perfect #3 with the deep speed to stretch the field in 3 WR sets.As a Steeler fan, I would compare Avery's role to Holmes role, Burton to Ward's, and Robinson to Washingtons. Note, these are role not production comparisons.I'd guess 70 receptions, 950 yards and 6 TD's for Avery.

 

[lyon812]

Avery actually had a number of injuries last year. Hip and knee during the season, and I think he had a stress fracture of the pelvis in training camp. That's more of a concern to me than anything else. He even had an injured ankle at the scouting combine. To his credit, he tried to play hurt, but multiple durability flags--in multiple body areas--make me nervous.

He's a homerun threat for sure, and he's agile and quick and elusive....but sometimes he seems better in a complementary role rather than a #1. His routes are a little sloppy and I'm not sold on his strength and ability to hold up in traffic, even though he shows heart and willingness. Routes can improve with time, of course, and I'd love to have my doubts dismissed, as a Rams fan and Avery owner. The improved offensive line can only help him via Bulger. Still, I feel people shouldn't be surprised if Avery doesn't take a great leap forward until 2010.

 

[TS Garp]

Avery actually had a number of injuries last year. Hip and knee during the season, and I think he had a stress fracture of the pelvis in training camp. That's more of a concern to me than anything else. He even had an injured ankle at the scouting combine. To his credit, he tried to play hurt, but multiple durability flags--in multiple body areas--make me nervous.He's a homerun threat for sure, and he's agile and quick and elusive....but sometimes he seems better in a complementary role rather than a #1. His routes are a little sloppy and I'm not sold on his strength and ability to hold up in traffic, even though he shows heart and willingness. Routes can improve with time, of course, and I'd love to have my doubts dismissed, as a Rams fan and Avery owner. The improved offensive line can only help him via Bulger. Still, I feel people shouldn't be surprised if Avery doesn't take a great leap forward until 2010.

Very good info here -- thanks.

 

[Birdie048]

Looking at some of these projections I think you guys are coming in way too high. Avery had one HUGE game of 163-1 which made up 30+% of his productivity for the year. Ya, ya, I know you can't discount big plays/big days but his numbers outside of that one day are very pedestrian (no 100 yard games, mostly 5 catches 50 yards). Ya their line was in shambles and it should be better this year but they are not going to be a passing offense by any stretch, they have no one to take pressure off him and he'll likely be doubled where last year I'm sure Holt even in his hobbled state took more coverage than Avery did.

He's a nice wr with some talent but I don't think he's elite and the Rams will probably be among the worst passing offenses in the league (how the mighty have fallen). Even if you draft him he'll be extemely frustrating because with his type of game he'll go 3-29, 4-45, you'll sit him he'll go 6-145-1, you'll start him and he'll go 3-22. He'll have no consistency and I want no part of that from my wr's which is why I've avoided Evans like the plague for years.

These predictions of 1000-7 and 1100-8 would've put him between 13th and 18th last year and I don't think he gets anywhere close to that. Think more along the lines of L. Evans (27th) (63-1017-3), Cotchery (30th) (71-858-5), Housh (31st) (92-904-4).

I'd probably project him for around 65-800-4.5 and finish around 35+ among wr's.

I agree with you Banger!!Avery was more the last skill player standing in StL (this includes RB, WR & TE). He is an average talent who made the most of his opportunity.

60 rec for 840 yards and 4 TDs is very realistic for him this year.

S Jackson, L Robinson & K Burton will make take up most of the productivity.

 

[dotman]

Looking at some of these projections I think you guys are coming in way too high. Avery had one HUGE game of 163-1 which made up 30+% of his productivity for the year. Ya, ya, I know you can't discount big plays/big days but his numbers outside of that one day are very pedestrian (no 100 yard games, mostly 5 catches 50 yards). Ya their line was in shambles and it should be better this year but they are not going to be a passing offense by any stretch, they have no one to take pressure off him and he'll likely be doubled where last year I'm sure Holt even in his hobbled state took more coverage than Avery did.

He's a nice wr with some talent but I don't think he's elite and the Rams will probably be among the worst passing offenses in the league (how the mighty have fallen). Even if you draft him he'll be extemely frustrating because with his type of game he'll go 3-29, 4-45, you'll sit him he'll go 6-145-1, you'll start him and he'll go 3-22. He'll have no consistency and I want no part of that from my wr's which is why I've avoided Evans like the plague for years.

These predictions of 1000-7 and 1100-8 would've put him between 13th and 18th last year and I don't think he gets anywhere close to that. Think more along the lines of L. Evans (27th) (63-1017-3), Cotchery (30th) (71-858-5), Housh (31st) (92-904-4).

I'd probably project him for around 65-800-4.5 and finish around 35+ among wr's.

I agree with you Banger!!Avery was more the last skill player standing in StL (this includes RB, WR & TE). He is an average talent who made the most of his opportunity.

60 rec for 840 yards and 4 TDs is very realistic for him this year.

S Jackson, L Robinson & K Burton will make take up most of the productivity.

I disagree that Avery is an average talent, although I do agree with both of you that many of the projections in this thread seem high. Avery still needs some polish but I think this guy could be a top 10 WR in the league long term, I'm not counting on too much out of him this year but he is a guy I want to own in dynasty.I'm not sure some people know how fast this guy is...he has ran the 40 in the 4.2's, a week before the combine he pulled his hammy and still clocked off a 4.40. Scounts Inc said he could have been the fastest player in the entire 2008 draft class. But he is more than just a track star, he tracks the deep ball extremely well and adjusts to it, he made some nice catches on under thrown balls last year, which is a good thing because when you run as fast as him you're going to get under thrown now and then. He has good after the catch skills and should be able to polish up his routes, he's not a long strider and he has quick feet. He has also always been known as a high character guy. IMO the only thing not to like about him long term is he seems to have a high number of injuries so far. But I'm not going to try and predict injuries, bottom line, the guy is talented.

I wonder how much you guys have seen him play who call him average. Short routes can be learned by a guy like Avery, the big play ability he has can't be learned by guys who don't have it. I'm looking forward to seeing this guy develop over the next few years.

 

[rzrback77]

Donnie Avery was the first WR taken in the 08 draft and played well for a team that came apart at the seams last year. He had some minor injuries but played in fifteen games (missed week one). He only scored in double digits non-ppr four games, but he averaged 9.67 targets 5.33 catches and 55 yards the last three games. Torry Holt is gone and the currently the Ram WR depth chart has Avery (2nd yr), Burton (2nd yr) and Robinson (3rd yr 1st with Rams) followed by several even less known guys. With that lack of depth and extreme youth and lack of experience, I see the Rams potentially bringing in another WR prior to the start of the season.

I think that the Ram offense is going to be predicated on Steven Jackson and the offensive line doing well. They will try run a lot and they will throw a lot of swing passes out in the flat. I will be surprised if Avery is called on to be the main man and I think that many projections are too high for him in 09.

Avery 85 targets and 60 receptions for 804 yards 13.4 ypc and 4 TDs

 

[lyon812]

Looking at some of these projections I think you guys are coming in way too high. Avery had one HUGE game of 163-1 which made up 30+% of his productivity for the year. Ya, ya, I know you can't discount big plays/big days but his numbers outside of that one day are very pedestrian (no 100 yard games, mostly 5 catches 50 yards). Ya their line was in shambles and it should be better this year but they are not going to be a passing offense by any stretch, they have no one to take pressure off him and he'll likely be doubled where last year I'm sure Holt even in his hobbled state took more coverage than Avery did.

He's a nice wr with some talent but I don't think he's elite and the Rams will probably be among the worst passing offenses in the league (how the mighty have fallen). Even if you draft him he'll be extemely frustrating because with his type of game he'll go 3-29, 4-45, you'll sit him he'll go 6-145-1, you'll start him and he'll go 3-22. He'll have no consistency and I want no part of that from my wr's which is why I've avoided Evans like the plague for years.

These predictions of 1000-7 and 1100-8 would've put him be'm not sure some people know how fast this guy is...he has ran the 40 in the 4.2's, a week before the combine he pulled his hammy and still clocked off a 4.40. Scounts Inc said he could have been the fastest player in the entire 2008 draft class. But he is more than just a track star, he tracks the deep ball extremely well and adjusts to it, he made some nice catches on under thrown balls last year, which is a good thing because when you run as fast as him you're going to get under thrown now and then. He has good after the catch skills and should be able to polish up his routes, he's not a long strider and he has quick feet. He has also always been known as a high character guy. IMO the only thing not to like about him long term is he seems to have a high number of injuries so far. But I'm not going to try and predict injuries, bottom line, the guy is talented.

tween 13th and 18th last year and I don't think he gets anywhere close to that. Think more along the lines of L. Evans (27th) (63-1017-3), Cotchery (30th) (71-858-5), Housh (31st) (92-904-4).

I'd probably project him for around 65-800-4.5 and finish around 35+ among wr's.

I agree with you Banger!!Avery was more the last skill player standing in StL (this includes RB, WR & TE). He is an average talent who made the most of his opportunity.

60 rec for 840 yards and 4 TDs is very realistic for him this year.

S Jackson, L Robinson & K Burton will make take up most of the productivity.

I disagree that Avery is an average talent, although I do agree with both of you that many of the projections in this thread seem high. Avery still needs some polish but I think this guy could be a top 10 WR in the league long term, I'm not counting on too much out of him this year but he is a guy I want to own in dynasty.

I don't consider him average, either. That being said, I see him on the level of players like Lee Evans and Laveranues Coles. With the right criteria--judging them against the elite WR--then I can see where they all fall into that "average WR1" range.

 

[dotman]

Looking at some of these projections I think you guys are coming in way too high. Avery had one HUGE game of 163-1 which made up 30+% of his productivity for the year. Ya, ya, I know you can't discount big plays/big days but his numbers outside of that one day are very pedestrian (no 100 yard games, mostly 5 catches 50 yards). Ya their line was in shambles and it should be better this year but they are not going to be a passing offense by any stretch, they have no one to take pressure off him and he'll likely be doubled where last year I'm sure Holt even in his hobbled state took more coverage than Avery did.

He's a nice wr with some talent but I don't think he's elite and the Rams will probably be among the worst passing offenses in the league (how the mighty have fallen). Even if you draft him he'll be extemely frustrating because with his type of game he'll go 3-29, 4-45, you'll sit him he'll go 6-145-1, you'll start him and he'll go 3-22. He'll have no consistency and I want no part of that from my wr's which is why I've avoided Evans like the plague for years.

These predictions of 1000-7 and 1100-8 would've put him be'm not sure some people know how fast this guy is...he has ran the 40 in the 4.2's, a week before the combine he pulled his hammy and still clocked off a 4.40. Scounts Inc said he could have been the fastest player in the entire 2008 draft class. But he is more than just a track star, he tracks the deep ball extremely well and adjusts to it, he made some nice catches on under thrown balls last year, which is a good thing because when you run as fast as him you're going to get under thrown now and then. He has good after the catch skills and should be able to polish up his routes, he's not a long strider and he has quick feet. He has also always been known as a high character guy. IMO the only thing not to like about him long term is he seems to have a high number of injuries so far. But I'm not going to try and predict injuries, bottom line, the guy is talented.

tween 13th and 18th last year and I don't think he gets anywhere close to that. Think more along the lines of L. Evans (27th) (63-1017-3), Cotchery (30th) (71-858-5), Housh (31st) (92-904-4).

I'd probably project him for around 65-800-4.5 and finish around 35+ among wr's.

I agree with you Banger!!Avery was more the last skill player standing in StL (this includes RB, WR & TE). He is an average talent who made the most of his opportunity.

60 rec for 840 yards and 4 TDs is very realistic for him this year.

S Jackson, L Robinson & K Burton will make take up most of the productivity.

I disagree that Avery is an average talent, although I do agree with both of you that many of the projections in this thread seem high. Avery still needs some polish but I think this guy could be a top 10 WR in the league long term, I'm not counting on too much out of him this year but he is a guy I want to own in dynasty.

I don't consider him average, either. That being said, I see him on the level of players like Lee Evans and Laveranues Coles. With the right criteria--judging them against the elite WR--then I can see where they all fall into that "average WR1" range.

I like the Lee Evans comparison a lot actually although Avery might be slightly more explosive...although they do seem to have a similar game. I guess it takes a good situation for guys like these to put up big numbers...Lee Evans was the #7 fantasy WR in his 3rd year but has come close to that otherwise. Coles isn't as much of a home run threat as Evans and Avery in my opinion.

 

[krsone21]

70 Receptions, 910 yards, 6 TD's

 

[awesomeness]

Looking at some of these projections I think you guys are coming in way too high. Avery had one HUGE game of 163-1 which made up 30+% of his productivity for the year. Ya, ya, I know you can't discount big plays/big days but his numbers outside of that one day are very pedestrian (no 100 yard games, mostly 5 catches 50 yards). Ya their line was in shambles and it should be better this year but they are not going to be a passing offense by any stretch, they have no one to take pressure off him and he'll likely be doubled where last year I'm sure Holt even in his hobbled state took more coverage than Avery did.

He's a nice wr with some talent but I don't think he's elite and the Rams will probably be among the worst passing offenses in the league (how the mighty have fallen). Even if you draft him he'll be extemely frustrating because with his type of game he'll go 3-29, 4-45, you'll sit him he'll go 6-145-1, you'll start him and he'll go 3-22. He'll have no consistency and I want no part of that from my wr's which is why I've avoided Evans like the plague for years.

These predictions of 1000-7 and 1100-8 would've put him between 13th and 18th last year and I don't think he gets anywhere close to that. Think more along the lines of L. Evans (27th) (63-1017-3), Cotchery (30th) (71-858-5), Housh (31st) (92-904-4).

I'd probably project him for around 65-800-4.5 and finish around 35+ among wr's.

I agree with you Banger!!Avery was more the last skill player standing in StL (this includes RB, WR & TE). He is an average talent who made the most of his opportunity.

60 rec for 840 yards and 4 TDs is very realistic for him this year.

S Jackson, L Robinson & K Burton will make take up most of the productivity.

I disagree that Avery is an average talent, although I do agree with both of you that many of the projections in this thread seem high. Avery still needs some polish but I think this guy could be a top 10 WR in the league long term, I'm not counting on too much out of him this year but he is a guy I want to own in dynasty.I'm not sure some people know how fast this guy is...he has ran the 40 in the 4.2's, a week before the combine he pulled his hammy and still clocked off a 4.40. Scounts Inc said he could have been the fastest player in the entire 2008 draft class. But he is more than just a track star, he tracks the deep ball extremely well and adjusts to it, he made some nice catches on under thrown balls last year, which is a good thing because when you run as fast as him you're going to get under thrown now and then. He has good after the catch skills and should be able to polish up his routes, he's not a long strider and he has quick feet. He has also always been known as a high character guy. IMO the only thing not to like about him long term is he seems to have a high number of injuries so far. But I'm not going to try and predict injuries, bottom line, the guy is talented.

I wonder how much you guys have seen him play who call him average. Short routes can be learned by a guy like Avery, the big play ability he has can't be learned by guys who don't have it. I'm looking forward to seeing this guy develop over the next few years.

i agree with basically everything in this post. I dont know how anyone who has actually seen him play can call him merely an average talent. I also wouldn't be surprised at all if he could run in the 4.2's. He looks noticeably faster than anyone else on the field.

I made a highlight video on youtube to refresh some people's memory

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaLWWECXq_c

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

Donnie Avery was the first WR taken in the 08 draft and played well for a team that came apart at the seams last year. He had some minor injuries but played in fifteen games (missed week one). He only scored in double digits non-ppr four games, but he averaged 9.67 targets 5.33 catches and 55 yards the last three games. Torry Holt is gone and the currently the Ram WR depth chart has Avery (2nd yr), Burton (2nd yr) and Robinson (3rd yr 1st with Rams) followed by several even less known guys. With that lack of depth and extreme youth and lack of experience, I see the Rams potentially bringing in another WR prior to the start of the season.I think that the Ram offense is going to be predicated on Steven Jackson and the offensive line doing well. They will try run a lot and they will throw a lot of swing passes out in the flat. I will be surprised if Avery is called on to be the main man and I think that many projections are too high for him in 09.Avery 85 targets and 60 receptions for 804 yards 13.4 ypc and 4 TDs

Avery had 104 targets lastyear. now that he's healthy and another year polished+without Holt(114targets)......how exactly are his targets going to go down?WCO offense means more short/timing pattern throws/targets. he's still gonna get his shots going deep but he's gonna get alot more opportunities in slants/hook/outs and etc.....

 

[Catbird]

Good little video, Awesomness - thanks for that. I didn't get to see a whole lot of Avery last year and I agree that on your clips he looks like the fastest guy on the field most of the time. He also adjusts routes well and has very good athleticism and balance, both to cut back inside a defender when Bulger repeatedly underthrew him and in getting his feet down along the sidelines - of course you didn't give us any glimpses where he should have made plays but didn't. One worry seems to be that he is a body (rather than hands) catcher, although he is good at it and, again, athletic enough to contort his body to create catching pockets even in clusters of defenders. That might limit his upside. But its hard not to like what you see with that balance/speed/athleticism/confidence from a rookie.

Much of Bulger's and the Rams OL problems visible here as well - and worth keeping well in mind.

 

[az_prof]

The Rams are atlest going to attempt to be a run first team, but I'm sure quite a few games will get away from them and they'll be playing catch up. Avery should see 120+ targets and end up with approx. 70 / 1000 / 7

This seems about right to me.

 

[awesomeness]

Good little video, Awesomness - thanks for that. I didn't get to see a whole lot of Avery last year and I agree that on your clips he looks like the fastest guy on the field most of the time. He also adjusts routes well and has very good athleticism and balance, both to cut back inside a defender when Bulger repeatedly underthrew him and in getting his feet down along the sidelines - of course you didn't give us any glimpses where he should have made plays but didn't. One worry seems to be that he is a body (rather than hands) catcher, although he is good at it and, again, athletic enough to contort his body to create catching pockets even in clusters of defenders. That might limit his upside. But its hard not to like what you see with that balance/speed/athleticism/confidence from a rookie.

Much of Bulger's and the Rams OL problems visible here as well - and worth keeping well in mind.

Although Avery lets the ball come close to his body too much, i still think he has very good hands and concentration. Looking at the catch starting at about 1:10, he has his hands waiting at his hips waiting for the ball to come to him and then when theres a deflection he makes a nice catch with both hands when the ball is at or above his head. Looking at the catch starting at 1:42 he makes another nice catch with both hands when the ball is above his head while contorting his body and keeping both feet inbounds. And on a lot of his other catches, unlike traditional body catchers he doesnt often try to pin the ball against his chest; instead he catches the ball with his hands but he just keeps his hands real close to his body. Though i agree with you that is a fault of his and it would be better if he would attack the ball with his hands like Larry Fitz, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, Michael Crabtree, etc. And in regards to showing clips to where he should have made plays but didn't, thoseplays are awfully hard to find in general for making videos of WRs and TEs. Finding video of a big play is simple cause i can just look at the box scores each week to see where a player made a big play, but finding a play where a guy gets jammed at the line, runs a bad route, or drops a pass is a lot harder to find since there's no way of knowing at what point during the game it happened without watching the entire game over again and i don't have access to entire games.

 

[Jon_Moore]

I don't like Avery's prospects for this season.

He's a smallish receiver that might not thrive in the redzone. He has great speed, but is there really any reason to believe Marc Bulger is going to be able to get it to him downfield consistently after last year's mess? And if not, are they going to pin their hopes on Kyle Boller? He's got the arm, he's just not good.

Avery had 5 or more catches only 5 times last season. Sure the situation is partially to blame, and while they may have improved the offensive line, the rest of the team isn't substantially different. They lost Torry Holt, so he'll draw the opposing team's #1 corner all season long. How will he handle that?

His 2 biggest games came with no Steven Jackson on the field. If you ignore the first two weeks of the season as he hardly played, and look at the games in which he and Jackson both played, he averaged only 37.5 yards per game. Jackson is by far their best offensive weapon, and they'll want to try to run it early and often this season, as well as throwing it to him out of the backfield.

55 Receptions

720 Yards

4 TDs

 

[rvarnell]

Any news about Avery this week? Per previous reprots it sounds like he will play this week, just looking for more info one way or the other.

 

[GManiac]

As far as I have heard he will be ready for week 1. Not sure what to expect out of him though in that game or all season. Hope he can make it to the endzone this season.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Looking at some of these projections I think you guys are coming in way too high. Avery had one HUGE game of 163-1 which made up 30+% of his productivity for the year. Ya, ya, I know you can't discount big plays/big days but his numbers outside of that one day are very pedestrian (no 100 yard games, mostly 5 catches 50 yards). Ya their line was in shambles and it should be better this year but they are not going to be a passing offense by any stretch, they have no one to take pressure off him and he'll likely be doubled where last year I'm sure Holt even in his hobbled state took more coverage than Avery did.

He's a nice wr with some talent but I don't think he's elite and the Rams will probably be among the worst passing offenses in the league (how the mighty have fallen). Even if you draft him he'll be extemely frustrating because with his type of game he'll go 3-29, 4-45, you'll sit him he'll go 6-145-1, you'll start him and he'll go 3-22. He'll have no consistency and I want no part of that from my wr's which is why I've avoided Evans like the plague for years.

These predictions of 1000-7 and 1100-8 would've put him between 13th and 18th last year and I don't think he gets anywhere close to that. Think more along the lines of L. Evans (27th) (63-1017-3), Cotchery (30th) (71-858-5), Housh (31st) (92-904-4).

I'd probably project him for around 65-800-4.5 and finish around 35+ among wr's.

I agree with you Banger!!Avery was more the last skill player standing in StL (this includes RB, WR & TE). He is an average talent who made the most of his opportunity.

60 rec for 840 yards and 4 TDs is very realistic for him this year.

S Jackson, L Robinson & K Burton will make take up most of the productivity.

I disagree that Avery is an average talent, although I do agree with both of you that many of the projections in this thread seem high. Avery still needs some polish but I think this guy could be a top 10 WR in the league long term, I'm not counting on too much out of him this year but he is a guy I want to own in dynasty.I'm not sure some people know how fast this guy is...he has ran the 40 in the 4.2's, a week before the combine he pulled his hammy and still clocked off a 4.40. Scounts Inc said he could have been the fastest player in the entire 2008 draft class. But he is more than just a track star, he tracks the deep ball extremely well and adjusts to it, he made some nice catches on under thrown balls last year, which is a good thing because when you run as fast as him you're going to get under thrown now and then. He has good after the catch skills and should be able to polish up his routes, he's not a long strider and he has quick feet. He has also always been known as a high character guy. IMO the only thing not to like about him long term is he seems to have a high number of injuries so far. But I'm not going to try and predict injuries, bottom line, the guy is talented.

I wonder how much you guys have seen him play who call him average. Short routes can be learned by a guy like Avery, the big play ability he has can't be learned by guys who don't have it. I'm looking forward to seeing this guy develop over the next few years.

i agree with basically everything in this post. I dont know how anyone who has actually seen him play can call him merely an average talent. I also wouldn't be surprised at all if he could run in the 4.2's. He looks noticeably faster than anyone else on the field.

I made a highlight video on youtube to refresh some people's memory

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaLWWECXq_c

Not ALL avery. But mostly him. Also gives a look at Burton and Stanley.Rams 2008 WR Highlights

 

[Gordon Keith]

I don't like Avery's prospects for this season.He's a smallish receiver that might not thrive in the redzone. He has great speed, but is there really any reason to believe Marc Bulger is going to be able to get it to him downfield consistently after last year's mess? And if not, are they going to pin their hopes on Kyle Boller? He's got the arm, he's just not good.Avery had 5 or more catches only 5 times last season. Sure the situation is partially to blame, and while they may have improved the offensive line, the rest of the team isn't substantially different. They lost Torry Holt, so he'll draw the opposing team's #1 corner all season long. How will he handle that?His 2 biggest games came with no Steven Jackson on the field. If you ignore the first two weeks of the season as he hardly played, and look at the games in which he and Jackson both played, he averaged only 37.5 yards per game. Jackson is by far their best offensive weapon, and they'll want to try to run it early and often this season, as well as throwing it to him out of the backfield. 55 Receptions720 Yards4 TDs

I'm not sure he's even good for that on this horrid team.He needs a #1 WR to take the heat off of him.That said...who's picking him up right now...talk about cheap....

 

[RamMan]

I don't like Avery's prospects for this season.He's a smallish receiver that might not thrive in the redzone. He has great speed, but is there really any reason to believe Marc Bulger is going to be able to get it to him downfield consistently after last year's mess? And if not, are they going to pin their hopes on Kyle Boller? He's got the arm, he's just not good.Avery had 5 or more catches only 5 times last season. Sure the situation is partially to blame, and while they may have improved the offensive line, the rest of the team isn't substantially different. They lost Torry Holt, so he'll draw the opposing team's #1 corner all season long. How will he handle that?His 2 biggest games came with no Steven Jackson on the field. If you ignore the first two weeks of the season as he hardly played, and look at the games in which he and Jackson both played, he averaged only 37.5 yards per game. Jackson is by far their best offensive weapon, and they'll want to try to run it early and often this season, as well as throwing it to him out of the backfield. 55 Receptions720 Yards4 TDs

I'm not sure he's even good for that on this horrid team.He needs a #1 WR to take the heat off of him.That said...who's picking him up right now...talk about cheap....

Picked him up off our waivers this week (missed out on Garcon) but another owner just dropped Royal. Now thinking of dropping Avery for Royal. I just don't see how the Rams are going to put passing points on the board this year. And I agree that Avery needs a credible threat on the other side to open things up for him. Keenan Burton? I don't think so....

 

[Ministry of Pain]

How about now moving forward?

Avery has been getting a fair amount of targets the whole way, roughly 6-8 a week. Last week he has an awful dance but manages to put up good numbers most owners would have enjoyed. He was on the WW in many beer draught leagues that I have seen so far. Curious if owners think they could trust him? He has a decent schedule the rest of the way, especially in the playoff part of the season.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Thinking about picking him up and dropping Antonio Bryant if his knee continues to be an issue.

 

[SCT]

I don't like Avery's prospects for this season.He's a smallish receiver that might not thrive in the redzone. He has great speed, but is there really any reason to believe Marc Bulger is going to be able to get it to him downfield consistently after last year's mess? And if not, are they going to pin their hopes on Kyle Boller? He's got the arm, he's just not good.Avery had 5 or more catches only 5 times last season. Sure the situation is partially to blame, and while they may have improved the offensive line, the rest of the team isn't substantially different. They lost Torry Holt, so he'll draw the opposing team's #1 corner all season long. How will he handle that?His 2 biggest games came with no Steven Jackson on the field. If you ignore the first two weeks of the season as he hardly played, and look at the games in which he and Jackson both played, he averaged only 37.5 yards per game. Jackson is by far their best offensive weapon, and they'll want to try to run it early and often this season, as well as throwing it to him out of the backfield. 55 Receptions720 Yards4 TDs

I'm not sure he's even good for that on this horrid team.He needs a #1 WR to take the heat off of him.That said...who's picking him up right now...talk about cheap....

Picked him up off our waivers this week (missed out on Garcon) but another owner just dropped Royal. Now thinking of dropping Avery for Royal. I just don't see how the Rams are going to put passing points on the board this year. And I agree that Avery needs a credible threat on the other side to open things up for him. Keenan Burton? I don't think so....

Picked him up off waivers this week for my terrible week 7 bye situation...but he's in my starting lineup week 6 over Royal....I haven't forgotten Royal's first 4 weeks quite yet, and Avery plays the JAGS. :fingers crossed:

 

[Hedgehog]

Starting him this week since bye week issues - keep in mind the kid broke his foot and Rams offense has been putrid - I think as both get better as the year goes on he will be a nice #3WR...I would buy low.

 

[packersfan]

Jags' defense is awful. Avery's not a bad sleeper pick this week.

 

[MrJimiT]

I picked Avery up on waivers this week due to Bulger returning and for the favorable schedule against the pass...especially during the FF playoff weeks.