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Player Spotlight: Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Dwayne Bowe Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
  • FBG Projections
  • Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

cstu

Footballguy
I expect a big year and think Bowe is virtually guaranteed about 150 targets in this offense.

90/1200/10.

 

UKColt

Footballguy
Yep, I see a bounceback year as well in line with the posters above.

Huge value at his current ADP (WR19 and 5.01, according FBG consensus rankings) and someone I'm targeting in all my drafts.

 

tdmills

Footballguy
Why is everyone seeing a bounce back year? I can see him increasing his totals from 2012, but not setting career highs like some of the predictions so far. He's never had a 90 catch season, he's never reached 1200 yards.

Andy Reid had only one WR ever enter the elite in his offense, TO. Even then it was 77, 1200 14 in 14 games. Alex Smith's career highs are 3177 yards and 18 TDs.

Bowe turns 29, just got paid, and has a below average starting QB chucking him the rock with a pass happy coach that likes to spread the ball around and feature his RB.

 
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jurb26

Footballguy
Why is everyone seeing a bounce back year? I can see him increasing his totals from 2012, but not setting career highs like some of the predictions so far. He's never had a 90 catch season, he's never reached 1200 yards. Andy Reid had only one WR ever enter the elite in his offense, TO. Even then it was 77, 1200 14 in 14 games. Alex Smith's career highs are 3177 yards and 18 TDs. Bowe turns 29, just got paid, and has a below average starting QB chucking him the rock with a pass happy coach that likes to spread the ball around and feature his RB.
These points got me thinking a bit, as I'm kind of on the fence in regards to Bowe this year. I agree with you that Reid will likely run this offense thru his stud RB, Charles. After looking into some of this more however, I don't agree with your thoughts on Bowe.1st, lets talk about his "bellow average" QB. This is the statement I probably disagree with more than any. You do realize that Smith has improved every single season he's been in the NFL, right? So much to the point that his last 3 seasons as a starter have resulted in the following QB ratings; 82.1, 90.7 and 104.1. Those are not "bellow average" results. On top of that, Smith has a record of 19 - 5 over the last 2 years in games he's started.Now lets look at Bowe setting potential career highs. This is something that really caught my attention when I read it. I figured Bowe to have gone for 1200 yds at some point and was very surprised to see that he hadn't. So, I looked back at the numbers. While its true to say he has never gone for 1200 yds or 90 catches, it's not like these numbers are unreasonable given his past. In 2010 Bowe had 1162 yds, in 2011 he had 1159 yds in 14 games and last year he had 801 in 12 games. He's been on the cusp on 1200 yds many times. As a matter of fact, his per game average of 74.3 prorated out to 1189 yds over the course of a full season. 90 catches is also something that isnt all too hard for me to see Bowe attaining either. He an 86 catch season and an 81 catch season (in 14 games). So yes, when you say a guy is going to set career highs it sounds like a stretch. However, these career highs are not all that much of a stretch IMO given Bowes history of production. He's been very close to these numbers already.Best of all, Bowe has been working with the following guys as his primary QBs in his 6 year NFL career; Cassel, Thigpen and Huard. That is an awful list of starting QBs. Probably worse than any top WR can claim as his starter over that time frame. So, getting back to your earlier point about Smith being "bellow average", which I don't agree with. How can Smith not be considered a massive upgrade, despite how much you like him, over that group of awful QBs? Smith will easily be the best QB Bowe has had his entire career IMO. Even if Smith just proves to be average. Moreover, I'd say Bowe will easily be the best WR Smith has ever had to throw to. The only guy who might be comparable is Crabtree and IMO there is almost no comparison. Bowe is a better talent. Plus, Crabtree only really stepped up after Keap took over and really his time playing at a high level with Smith was very short. I think Reid is going to get this offense to open up and Bowe should be one of many beneficiaries of it. Yes, Reid has only ever had one elite WR in his offense. At the same token, Reid has only ever had a WR who was so clearly his WR1 one other time as well. When TO was in town. Here's the thing, nobody is predicting elite production from Bowe. When TO was in Philly he averaged the following stats per game; 6 receptions, 93 yds and 1 TD. That prorated out to a season of; 96/1488/16. That is elite production. What people are projecting for Bowe, 90/1200/8 range is nothing of the sort.So in short, I'm comfortable projecting Bowe to have a "career year" in this KC offense. I don't think the levels of these projections are really that much greater than what he has already shown he is capable of in much, much worse circumstances. Bowe is the unquestioned WR1 on his team, has been given a massive upgrade at QB and a massive upgrade in coaching. I'm not sure what there isn't to like here. Perhaps contract let down?88 receptions, 1232 yds, 10 TDs.
 

tdmills

Footballguy
Why is everyone seeing a bounce back year? I can see him increasing his totals from 2012, but not setting career highs like some of the predictions so far. He's never had a 90 catch season, he's never reached 1200 yards. Andy Reid had only one WR ever enter the elite in his offense, TO. Even then it was 77, 1200 14 in 14 games. Alex Smith's career highs are 3177 yards and 18 TDs. Bowe turns 29, just got paid, and has a below average starting QB chucking him the rock with a pass happy coach that likes to spread the ball around and feature his RB.
These points got me thinking a bit, as I'm kind of on the fence in regards to Bowe this year. I agree with you that Reid will likely run this offense thru his stud RB, Charles. After looking into some of this more however, I don't agree with your thoughts on Bowe.1st, lets talk about his "bellow average" QB. This is the statement I probably disagree with more than any. You do realize that Smith has improved every single season he's been in the NFL, right? So much to the point that his last 3 seasons as a starter have resulted in the following QB ratings; 82.1, 90.7 and 104.1. Those are not "bellow average" results. On top of that, Smith has a record of 19 - 5 over the last 2 years in games he's started.Now lets look at Bowe setting potential career highs. This is something that really caught my attention when I read it. I figured Bowe to have gone for 1200 yds at some point and was very surprised to see that he hadn't. So, I looked back at the numbers. While its true to say he has never gone for 1200 yds or 90 catches, it's not like these numbers are unreasonable given his past. In 2010 Bowe had 1162 yds, in 2011 he had 1159 yds in 14 games and last year he had 801 in 12 games. He's been on the cusp on 1200 yds many times. As a matter of fact, his per game average of 74.3 prorated out to 1189 yds over the course of a full season. 90 catches is also something that isnt all too hard for me to see Bowe attaining either. He an 86 catch season and an 81 catch season (in 14 games). So yes, when you say a guy is going to set career highs it sounds like a stretch. However, these career highs are not all that much of a stretch IMO given Bowes history of production. He's been very close to these numbers already.Best of all, Bowe has been working with the following guys as his primary QBs in his 6 year NFL career; Cassel, Thigpen and Huard. That is an awful list of starting QBs. Probably worse than any top WR can claim as his starter over that time frame. So, getting back to your earlier point about Smith being "bellow average", which I don't agree with. How can Smith not be considered a massive upgrade, despite how much you like him, over that group of awful QBs? Smith will easily be the best QB Bowe has had his entire career IMO. Even if Smith just proves to be average. Moreover, I'd say Bowe will easily be the best WR Smith has ever had to throw to. The only guy who might be comparable is Crabtree and IMO there is almost no comparison. Bowe is a better talent. Plus, Crabtree only really stepped up after Keap took over and really his time playing at a high level with Smith was very short.I think Reid is going to get this offense to open up and Bowe should be one of many beneficiaries of it. Yes, Reid has only ever had one elite WR in his offense. At the same token, Reid has only ever had a WR who was so clearly his WR1 one other time as well. When TO was in town. Here's the thing, nobody is predicting elite production from Bowe. When TO was in Philly he averaged the following stats per game; 6 receptions, 93 yds and 1 TD. That prorated out to a season of; 96/1488/16. That is elite production. What people are projecting for Bowe, 90/1200/8 range is nothing of the sort.So in short, I'm comfortable projecting Bowe to have a "career year" in this KC offense. I don't think the levels of these projections are really that much greater than what he has already shown he is capable of in much, much worse circumstances. Bowe is the unquestioned WR1 on his team, has been given a massive upgrade at QB and a massive upgrade in coaching. I'm not sure what there isn't to like here. Perhaps contract let down?88 receptions, 1232 yds, 10 TDs.
1) Alex Smith's QB rating or NFL record mean little in terms of FF. In terms of FF, he's a below average QB for his entire career. I've been a very big Alex Smith supporter and continue to be, but at some point I'm a realist.

2) Career highs, yes it's not super high, however he's not a young kid anymore. He got paid and isn't in an ideal situation to produce those career highs.

3) Andy Reid was given two 1st round picks(Freddie Mitchell and Jeremy Maclin) and a very talented 2d rounder in Desean Jackson, yet none have ever put up 90/1200. Why should we expect an Andy Reid offense to suddenly take a 29 year old, sometimes not motivated, just got paid his fat contract Dwayne Bowe and expect a career banner year?

 

Beerguzzler

Footballguy
Why is everyone seeing a bounce back year? I can see him increasing his totals from 2012, but not setting career highs like some of the predictions so far. He's never had a 90 catch season, he's never reached 1200 yards. Andy Reid had only one WR ever enter the elite in his offense, TO. Even then it was 77, 1200 14 in 14 games. Alex Smith's career highs are 3177 yards and 18 TDs. Bowe turns 29, just got paid, and has a below average starting QB chucking him the rock with a pass happy coach that likes to spread the ball around and feature his RB.
These points got me thinking a bit, as I'm kind of on the fence in regards to Bowe this year. I agree with you that Reid will likely run this offense thru his stud RB, Charles. After looking into some of this more however, I don't agree with your thoughts on Bowe.1st, lets talk about his "bellow average" QB. This is the statement I probably disagree with more than any. You do realize that Smith has improved every single season he's been in the NFL, right? So much to the point that his last 3 seasons as a starter have resulted in the following QB ratings; 82.1, 90.7 and 104.1. Those are not "bellow average" results. On top of that, Smith has a record of 19 - 5 over the last 2 years in games he's started.Now lets look at Bowe setting potential career highs. This is something that really caught my attention when I read it. I figured Bowe to have gone for 1200 yds at some point and was very surprised to see that he hadn't. So, I looked back at the numbers. While its true to say he has never gone for 1200 yds or 90 catches, it's not like these numbers are unreasonable given his past. In 2010 Bowe had 1162 yds, in 2011 he had 1159 yds in 14 games and last year he had 801 in 12 games. He's been on the cusp on 1200 yds many times. As a matter of fact, his per game average of 74.3 prorated out to 1189 yds over the course of a full season. 90 catches is also something that isnt all too hard for me to see Bowe attaining either. He an 86 catch season and an 81 catch season (in 14 games). So yes, when you say a guy is going to set career highs it sounds like a stretch. However, these career highs are not all that much of a stretch IMO given Bowes history of production. He's been very close to these numbers already.Best of all, Bowe has been working with the following guys as his primary QBs in his 6 year NFL career; Cassel, Thigpen and Huard. That is an awful list of starting QBs. Probably worse than any top WR can claim as his starter over that time frame. So, getting back to your earlier point about Smith being "bellow average", which I don't agree with. How can Smith not be considered a massive upgrade, despite how much you like him, over that group of awful QBs? Smith will easily be the best QB Bowe has had his entire career IMO. Even if Smith just proves to be average. Moreover, I'd say Bowe will easily be the best WR Smith has ever had to throw to. The only guy who might be comparable is Crabtree and IMO there is almost no comparison. Bowe is a better talent. Plus, Crabtree only really stepped up after Keap took over and really his time playing at a high level with Smith was very short.I think Reid is going to get this offense to open up and Bowe should be one of many beneficiaries of it. Yes, Reid has only ever had one elite WR in his offense. At the same token, Reid has only ever had a WR who was so clearly his WR1 one other time as well. When TO was in town. Here's the thing, nobody is predicting elite production from Bowe. When TO was in Philly he averaged the following stats per game; 6 receptions, 93 yds and 1 TD. That prorated out to a season of; 96/1488/16. That is elite production. What people are projecting for Bowe, 90/1200/8 range is nothing of the sort.So in short, I'm comfortable projecting Bowe to have a "career year" in this KC offense. I don't think the levels of these projections are really that much greater than what he has already shown he is capable of in much, much worse circumstances. Bowe is the unquestioned WR1 on his team, has been given a massive upgrade at QB and a massive upgrade in coaching. I'm not sure what there isn't to like here. Perhaps contract let down?88 receptions, 1232 yds, 10 TDs.
1) Alex Smith's QB rating or NFL record mean little in terms of FF. In terms of FF, he's a below average QB for his entire career. I've been a very big Alex Smith supporter and continue to be, but at some point I'm a realist.

2) Career highs, yes it's not super high, however he's not a young kid anymore. He got paid and isn't in an ideal situation to produce those career highs.

3) Andy Reid was given two 1st round picks(Freddie Mitchell and Jeremy Maclin) and a very talented 2d rounder in Desean Jackson, yet none have ever put up 90/1200. Why should we expect an Andy Reid offense to suddenly take a 29 year old, sometimes not motivated, just got paid his fat contract Dwayne Bowe and expect a career banner year?
Because none of those guys IMO have the talent that Bowe does, nor the size/str combo. He's going to be used like they used T.O. They will get him the ball early and often. Add the fact that he's really the only WR on the team.

I am the only one that remembers Reid going away from his running game consistently and going pass happy?

 
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tdmills

Footballguy
Why is everyone seeing a bounce back year? I can see him increasing his totals from 2012, but not setting career highs like some of the predictions so far. He's never had a 90 catch season, he's never reached 1200 yards. Andy Reid had only one WR ever enter the elite in his offense, TO. Even then it was 77, 1200 14 in 14 games. Alex Smith's career highs are 3177 yards and 18 TDs. Bowe turns 29, just got paid, and has a below average starting QB chucking him the rock with a pass happy coach that likes to spread the ball around and feature his RB.
These points got me thinking a bit, as I'm kind of on the fence in regards to Bowe this year. I agree with you that Reid will likely run this offense thru his stud RB, Charles. After looking into some of this more however, I don't agree with your thoughts on Bowe.1st, lets talk about his "bellow average" QB. This is the statement I probably disagree with more than any. You do realize that Smith has improved every single season he's been in the NFL, right? So much to the point that his last 3 seasons as a starter have resulted in the following QB ratings; 82.1, 90.7 and 104.1. Those are not "bellow average" results. On top of that, Smith has a record of 19 - 5 over the last 2 years in games he's started.Now lets look at Bowe setting potential career highs. This is something that really caught my attention when I read it. I figured Bowe to have gone for 1200 yds at some point and was very surprised to see that he hadn't. So, I looked back at the numbers. While its true to say he has never gone for 1200 yds or 90 catches, it's not like these numbers are unreasonable given his past. In 2010 Bowe had 1162 yds, in 2011 he had 1159 yds in 14 games and last year he had 801 in 12 games. He's been on the cusp on 1200 yds many times. As a matter of fact, his per game average of 74.3 prorated out to 1189 yds over the course of a full season. 90 catches is also something that isnt all too hard for me to see Bowe attaining either. He an 86 catch season and an 81 catch season (in 14 games). So yes, when you say a guy is going to set career highs it sounds like a stretch. However, these career highs are not all that much of a stretch IMO given Bowes history of production. He's been very close to these numbers already.Best of all, Bowe has been working with the following guys as his primary QBs in his 6 year NFL career; Cassel, Thigpen and Huard. That is an awful list of starting QBs. Probably worse than any top WR can claim as his starter over that time frame. So, getting back to your earlier point about Smith being "bellow average", which I don't agree with. How can Smith not be considered a massive upgrade, despite how much you like him, over that group of awful QBs? Smith will easily be the best QB Bowe has had his entire career IMO. Even if Smith just proves to be average. Moreover, I'd say Bowe will easily be the best WR Smith has ever had to throw to. The only guy who might be comparable is Crabtree and IMO there is almost no comparison. Bowe is a better talent. Plus, Crabtree only really stepped up after Keap took over and really his time playing at a high level with Smith was very short.I think Reid is going to get this offense to open up and Bowe should be one of many beneficiaries of it. Yes, Reid has only ever had one elite WR in his offense. At the same token, Reid has only ever had a WR who was so clearly his WR1 one other time as well. When TO was in town. Here's the thing, nobody is predicting elite production from Bowe. When TO was in Philly he averaged the following stats per game; 6 receptions, 93 yds and 1 TD. That prorated out to a season of; 96/1488/16. That is elite production. What people are projecting for Bowe, 90/1200/8 range is nothing of the sort.So in short, I'm comfortable projecting Bowe to have a "career year" in this KC offense. I don't think the levels of these projections are really that much greater than what he has already shown he is capable of in much, much worse circumstances. Bowe is the unquestioned WR1 on his team, has been given a massive upgrade at QB and a massive upgrade in coaching. I'm not sure what there isn't to like here. Perhaps contract let down?88 receptions, 1232 yds, 10 TDs.
1) Alex Smith's QB rating or NFL record mean little in terms of FF. In terms of FF, he's a below average QB for his entire career. I've been a very big Alex Smith supporter and continue to be, but at some point I'm a realist.

2) Career highs, yes it's not super high, however he's not a young kid anymore. He got paid and isn't in an ideal situation to produce those career highs.

3) Andy Reid was given two 1st round picks(Freddie Mitchell and Jeremy Maclin) and a very talented 2d rounder in Desean Jackson, yet none have ever put up 90/1200. Why should we expect an Andy Reid offense to suddenly take a 29 year old, sometimes not motivated, just got paid his fat contract Dwayne Bowe and expect a career banner year?
Because none of those guys IMO have the talent that Bowe does, nor the size/str combo. He's going to be used like they used T.O. They will get him the ball early and often. Add the fact that he's really the only WR on the team.

I am the only one that remembers Reid going away from his running game consistently and going pass happy?
Bowe isn't as fast or quick as them either, he's also not in TO's ballpark.

Reid is pass happy, but he spreads the whether. Which is my concern for the career high bowe numbers. I've heard he likes McCluster already, Charles will get his, maybe baldwin, etc.

 

Beerguzzler

Footballguy
tdmills said:
Beerguzzler said:
tdmills said:
jurb26 said:
Why is everyone seeing a bounce back year? I can see him increasing his totals from 2012, but not setting career highs like some of the predictions so far. He's never had a 90 catch season, he's never reached 1200 yards. Andy Reid had only one WR ever enter the elite in his offense, TO. Even then it was 77, 1200 14 in 14 games. Alex Smith's career highs are 3177 yards and 18 TDs. Bowe turns 29, just got paid, and has a below average starting QB chucking him the rock with a pass happy coach that likes to spread the ball around and feature his RB.
These points got me thinking a bit, as I'm kind of on the fence in regards to Bowe this year. I agree with you that Reid will likely run this offense thru his stud RB, Charles. After looking into some of this more however, I don't agree with your thoughts on Bowe.1st, lets talk about his "bellow average" QB. This is the statement I probably disagree with more than any. You do realize that Smith has improved every single season he's been in the NFL, right? So much to the point that his last 3 seasons as a starter have resulted in the following QB ratings; 82.1, 90.7 and 104.1. Those are not "bellow average" results. On top of that, Smith has a record of 19 - 5 over the last 2 years in games he's started.Now lets look at Bowe setting potential career highs. This is something that really caught my attention when I read it. I figured Bowe to have gone for 1200 yds at some point and was very surprised to see that he hadn't. So, I looked back at the numbers. While its true to say he has never gone for 1200 yds or 90 catches, it's not like these numbers are unreasonable given his past. In 2010 Bowe had 1162 yds, in 2011 he had 1159 yds in 14 games and last year he had 801 in 12 games. He's been on the cusp on 1200 yds many times. As a matter of fact, his per game average of 74.3 prorated out to 1189 yds over the course of a full season. 90 catches is also something that isnt all too hard for me to see Bowe attaining either. He an 86 catch season and an 81 catch season (in 14 games). So yes, when you say a guy is going to set career highs it sounds like a stretch. However, these career highs are not all that much of a stretch IMO given Bowes history of production. He's been very close to these numbers already.Best of all, Bowe has been working with the following guys as his primary QBs in his 6 year NFL career; Cassel, Thigpen and Huard. That is an awful list of starting QBs. Probably worse than any top WR can claim as his starter over that time frame. So, getting back to your earlier point about Smith being "bellow average", which I don't agree with. How can Smith not be considered a massive upgrade, despite how much you like him, over that group of awful QBs? Smith will easily be the best QB Bowe has had his entire career IMO. Even if Smith just proves to be average. Moreover, I'd say Bowe will easily be the best WR Smith has ever had to throw to. The only guy who might be comparable is Crabtree and IMO there is almost no comparison. Bowe is a better talent. Plus, Crabtree only really stepped up after Keap took over and really his time playing at a high level with Smith was very short.I think Reid is going to get this offense to open up and Bowe should be one of many beneficiaries of it. Yes, Reid has only ever had one elite WR in his offense. At the same token, Reid has only ever had a WR who was so clearly his WR1 one other time as well. When TO was in town. Here's the thing, nobody is predicting elite production from Bowe. When TO was in Philly he averaged the following stats per game; 6 receptions, 93 yds and 1 TD. That prorated out to a season of; 96/1488/16. That is elite production. What people are projecting for Bowe, 90/1200/8 range is nothing of the sort.So in short, I'm comfortable projecting Bowe to have a "career year" in this KC offense. I don't think the levels of these projections are really that much greater than what he has already shown he is capable of in much, much worse circumstances. Bowe is the unquestioned WR1 on his team, has been given a massive upgrade at QB and a massive upgrade in coaching. I'm not sure what there isn't to like here. Perhaps contract let down?88 receptions, 1232 yds, 10 TDs.
1) Alex Smith's QB rating or NFL record mean little in terms of FF. In terms of FF, he's a below average QB for his entire career. I've been a very big Alex Smith supporter and continue to be, but at some point I'm a realist. 2) Career highs, yes it's not super high, however he's not a young kid anymore. He got paid and isn't in an ideal situation to produce those career highs. 3) Andy Reid was given two 1st round picks(Freddie Mitchell and Jeremy Maclin) and a very talented 2d rounder in Desean Jackson, yet none have ever put up 90/1200. Why should we expect an Andy Reid offense to suddenly take a 29 year old, sometimes not motivated, just got paid his fat contract Dwayne Bowe and expect a career banner year?
Because none of those guys IMO have the talent that Bowe does, nor the size/str combo. He's going to be used like they used T.O. They will get him the ball early and often. Add the fact that he's really the only WR on the team. I am the only one that remembers Reid going away from his running game consistently and going pass happy?
Bowe isn't as fast or quick as them either, he's also not in TO's ballpark. Reid is pass happy, but he spreads the whether. Which is my concern for the career high bowe numbers. I've heard he likes McCluster already, Charles will get his, maybe baldwin, etc.
Why do you say that? Pretty much the same size/speed combo. Bowe has had better production than TO at the same point in their careers. Maybe I'm biased since I've been watching Bowe since I got him in my dynasty team ever since he was drafted. I've watched him be a massive mismatch against any CB he's played against, except the Chiefs have never been able to get him the ball consistently. (BTW I HATE the Chiefs) His only season with somewhat reliable QB play in Cassel, he was downright dominant and was scoring TD's at will. He was matchup nightmare.

 
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jurb26

Footballguy
tdmills said:
Beerguzzler said:
tdmills said:
jurb26 said:
Why is everyone seeing a bounce back year? I can see him increasing his totals from 2012, but not setting career highs like some of the predictions so far. He's never had a 90 catch season, he's never reached 1200 yards. Andy Reid had only one WR ever enter the elite in his offense, TO. Even then it was 77, 1200 14 in 14 games. Alex Smith's career highs are 3177 yards and 18 TDs. Bowe turns 29, just got paid, and has a below average starting QB chucking him the rock with a pass happy coach that likes to spread the ball around and feature his RB.
These points got me thinking a bit, as I'm kind of on the fence in regards to Bowe this year. I agree with you that Reid will likely run this offense thru his stud RB, Charles. After looking into some of this more however, I don't agree with your thoughts on Bowe.1st, lets talk about his "bellow average" QB. This is the statement I probably disagree with more than any. You do realize that Smith has improved every single season he's been in the NFL, right? So much to the point that his last 3 seasons as a starter have resulted in the following QB ratings; 82.1, 90.7 and 104.1. Those are not "bellow average" results. On top of that, Smith has a record of 19 - 5 over the last 2 years in games he's started.Now lets look at Bowe setting potential career highs. This is something that really caught my attention when I read it. I figured Bowe to have gone for 1200 yds at some point and was very surprised to see that he hadn't. So, I looked back at the numbers. While its true to say he has never gone for 1200 yds or 90 catches, it's not like these numbers are unreasonable given his past. In 2010 Bowe had 1162 yds, in 2011 he had 1159 yds in 14 games and last year he had 801 in 12 games. He's been on the cusp on 1200 yds many times. As a matter of fact, his per game average of 74.3 prorated out to 1189 yds over the course of a full season. 90 catches is also something that isnt all too hard for me to see Bowe attaining either. He an 86 catch season and an 81 catch season (in 14 games). So yes, when you say a guy is going to set career highs it sounds like a stretch. However, these career highs are not all that much of a stretch IMO given Bowes history of production. He's been very close to these numbers already.Best of all, Bowe has been working with the following guys as his primary QBs in his 6 year NFL career; Cassel, Thigpen and Huard. That is an awful list of starting QBs. Probably worse than any top WR can claim as his starter over that time frame. So, getting back to your earlier point about Smith being "bellow average", which I don't agree with. How can Smith not be considered a massive upgrade, despite how much you like him, over that group of awful QBs? Smith will easily be the best QB Bowe has had his entire career IMO. Even if Smith just proves to be average. Moreover, I'd say Bowe will easily be the best WR Smith has ever had to throw to. The only guy who might be comparable is Crabtree and IMO there is almost no comparison. Bowe is a better talent. Plus, Crabtree only really stepped up after Keap took over and really his time playing at a high level with Smith was very short.I think Reid is going to get this offense to open up and Bowe should be one of many beneficiaries of it. Yes, Reid has only ever had one elite WR in his offense. At the same token, Reid has only ever had a WR who was so clearly his WR1 one other time as well. When TO was in town. Here's the thing, nobody is predicting elite production from Bowe. When TO was in Philly he averaged the following stats per game; 6 receptions, 93 yds and 1 TD. That prorated out to a season of; 96/1488/16. That is elite production. What people are projecting for Bowe, 90/1200/8 range is nothing of the sort.So in short, I'm comfortable projecting Bowe to have a "career year" in this KC offense. I don't think the levels of these projections are really that much greater than what he has already shown he is capable of in much, much worse circumstances. Bowe is the unquestioned WR1 on his team, has been given a massive upgrade at QB and a massive upgrade in coaching. I'm not sure what there isn't to like here. Perhaps contract let down?88 receptions, 1232 yds, 10 TDs.
1) Alex Smith's QB rating or NFL record mean little in terms of FF. In terms of FF, he's a below average QB for his entire career. I've been a very big Alex Smith supporter and continue to be, but at some point I'm a realist. 2) Career highs, yes it's not super high, however he's not a young kid anymore. He got paid and isn't in an ideal situation to produce those career highs. 3) Andy Reid was given two 1st round picks(Freddie Mitchell and Jeremy Maclin) and a very talented 2d rounder in Desean Jackson, yet none have ever put up 90/1200. Why should we expect an Andy Reid offense to suddenly take a 29 year old, sometimes not motivated, just got paid his fat contract Dwayne Bowe and expect a career banner year?
Because none of those guys IMO have the talent that Bowe does, nor the size/str combo. He's going to be used like they used T.O. They will get him the ball early and often. Add the fact that he's really the only WR on the team. I am the only one that remembers Reid going away from his running game consistently and going pass happy?
Bowe isn't as fast or quick as them either, he's also not in TO's ballpark. Reid is pass happy, but he spreads the whether. Which is my concern for the career high bowe numbers. I've heard he likes McCluster already, Charles will get his, maybe baldwin, etc.
Bowe isn't as quick or fast as Maclin/Jackson but he's a better WR. He's plenty quick and fast, bigger, stronger, runs great routes, is good with the ball in his hands and catches the ball well. He's not spectacular in anything, but good at everything and a very good WR. Nobody is saying he is TO. Baldwin and McCluster are hardly threats IMO. Neither are all that good and neither as nearly as good as Bowe. Charles will certainly get his. I'm sure someone else in KC will as well seeing how much Reid typically throws the ball. None the less, the separation between Bowe and the field in KC is a wide gap. Wider than anything seen in Philly since TO days. Again, everything about Bowe's situation appears to have improved. Given that, I'd hardly say its that outlandish he sets some career highs. Also, you are acting as though 29 is old. It's not. At least not for WRs. Bowe is still in his prime for the most part.
 
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tdmills

Footballguy
tdmills said:
Beerguzzler said:
tdmills said:
jurb26 said:
Why is everyone seeing a bounce back year? I can see him increasing his totals from 2012, but not setting career highs like some of the predictions so far. He's never had a 90 catch season, he's never reached 1200 yards. Andy Reid had only one WR ever enter the elite in his offense, TO. Even then it was 77, 1200 14 in 14 games. Alex Smith's career highs are 3177 yards and 18 TDs. Bowe turns 29, just got paid, and has a below average starting QB chucking him the rock with a pass happy coach that likes to spread the ball around and feature his RB.
These points got me thinking a bit, as I'm kind of on the fence in regards to Bowe this year. I agree with you that Reid will likely run this offense thru his stud RB, Charles. After looking into some of this more however, I don't agree with your thoughts on Bowe.1st, lets talk about his "bellow average" QB. This is the statement I probably disagree with more than any. You do realize that Smith has improved every single season he's been in the NFL, right? So much to the point that his last 3 seasons as a starter have resulted in the following QB ratings; 82.1, 90.7 and 104.1. Those are not "bellow average" results. On top of that, Smith has a record of 19 - 5 over the last 2 years in games he's started.Now lets look at Bowe setting potential career highs. This is something that really caught my attention when I read it. I figured Bowe to have gone for 1200 yds at some point and was very surprised to see that he hadn't. So, I looked back at the numbers. While its true to say he has never gone for 1200 yds or 90 catches, it's not like these numbers are unreasonable given his past. In 2010 Bowe had 1162 yds, in 2011 he had 1159 yds in 14 games and last year he had 801 in 12 games. He's been on the cusp on 1200 yds many times. As a matter of fact, his per game average of 74.3 prorated out to 1189 yds over the course of a full season. 90 catches is also something that isnt all too hard for me to see Bowe attaining either. He an 86 catch season and an 81 catch season (in 14 games). So yes, when you say a guy is going to set career highs it sounds like a stretch. However, these career highs are not all that much of a stretch IMO given Bowes history of production. He's been very close to these numbers already.Best of all, Bowe has been working with the following guys as his primary QBs in his 6 year NFL career; Cassel, Thigpen and Huard. That is an awful list of starting QBs. Probably worse than any top WR can claim as his starter over that time frame. So, getting back to your earlier point about Smith being "bellow average", which I don't agree with. How can Smith not be considered a massive upgrade, despite how much you like him, over that group of awful QBs? Smith will easily be the best QB Bowe has had his entire career IMO. Even if Smith just proves to be average. Moreover, I'd say Bowe will easily be the best WR Smith has ever had to throw to. The only guy who might be comparable is Crabtree and IMO there is almost no comparison. Bowe is a better talent. Plus, Crabtree only really stepped up after Keap took over and really his time playing at a high level with Smith was very short.I think Reid is going to get this offense to open up and Bowe should be one of many beneficiaries of it. Yes, Reid has only ever had one elite WR in his offense. At the same token, Reid has only ever had a WR who was so clearly his WR1 one other time as well. When TO was in town. Here's the thing, nobody is predicting elite production from Bowe. When TO was in Philly he averaged the following stats per game; 6 receptions, 93 yds and 1 TD. That prorated out to a season of; 96/1488/16. That is elite production. What people are projecting for Bowe, 90/1200/8 range is nothing of the sort.So in short, I'm comfortable projecting Bowe to have a "career year" in this KC offense. I don't think the levels of these projections are really that much greater than what he has already shown he is capable of in much, much worse circumstances. Bowe is the unquestioned WR1 on his team, has been given a massive upgrade at QB and a massive upgrade in coaching. I'm not sure what there isn't to like here. Perhaps contract let down?88 receptions, 1232 yds, 10 TDs.
1) Alex Smith's QB rating or NFL record mean little in terms of FF. In terms of FF, he's a below average QB for his entire career. I've been a very big Alex Smith supporter and continue to be, but at some point I'm a realist. 2) Career highs, yes it's not super high, however he's not a young kid anymore. He got paid and isn't in an ideal situation to produce those career highs. 3) Andy Reid was given two 1st round picks(Freddie Mitchell and Jeremy Maclin) and a very talented 2d rounder in Desean Jackson, yet none have ever put up 90/1200. Why should we expect an Andy Reid offense to suddenly take a 29 year old, sometimes not motivated, just got paid his fat contract Dwayne Bowe and expect a career banner year?
Because none of those guys IMO have the talent that Bowe does, nor the size/str combo. He's going to be used like they used T.O. They will get him the ball early and often. Add the fact that he's really the only WR on the team. I am the only one that remembers Reid going away from his running game consistently and going pass happy?
Bowe isn't as fast or quick as them either, he's also not in TO's ballpark. Reid is pass happy, but he spreads the whether. Which is my concern for the career high bowe numbers. I've heard he likes McCluster already, Charles will get his, maybe baldwin, etc.
Why do you say that? Pretty much the same size/speed combo. Bowe has had better production than TO at the same point in their careers. Maybe I'm biased since I've been watching Bowe since I got him in my dynasty team ever since he was drafted. I've watched him be a massive mismatch against any CB he's played against, except the Chiefs have never been able to get him the ball consistently. (BTW I HATE the Chiefs) His only season with somewhat reliable QB play in Cassel, he was downright dominant and was scoring TD's at will. He was matchup nightmare.
Excuse me?

6 years into Bowe's career his bests are: 86 receptions 1162 yards 15 TD

6 years into TO's career his bests were: 97 receptions 1451 yards 16 TD. TO also had another 90+ reception season, 1400+ yard and 14/13TD seasons.

Bowe is a good WR, but he's not elite. That's the "ballpark" i'm talking about.

 

Beerguzzler

Footballguy
tdmills said:
Beerguzzler said:
tdmills said:
jurb26 said:
Why is everyone seeing a bounce back year? I can see him increasing his totals from 2012, but not setting career highs like some of the predictions so far. He's never had a 90 catch season, he's never reached 1200 yards. Andy Reid had only one WR ever enter the elite in his offense, TO. Even then it was 77, 1200 14 in 14 games. Alex Smith's career highs are 3177 yards and 18 TDs. Bowe turns 29, just got paid, and has a below average starting QB chucking him the rock with a pass happy coach that likes to spread the ball around and feature his RB.
These points got me thinking a bit, as I'm kind of on the fence in regards to Bowe this year. I agree with you that Reid will likely run this offense thru his stud RB, Charles. After looking into some of this more however, I don't agree with your thoughts on Bowe.1st, lets talk about his "bellow average" QB. This is the statement I probably disagree with more than any. You do realize that Smith has improved every single season he's been in the NFL, right? So much to the point that his last 3 seasons as a starter have resulted in the following QB ratings; 82.1, 90.7 and 104.1. Those are not "bellow average" results. On top of that, Smith has a record of 19 - 5 over the last 2 years in games he's started.Now lets look at Bowe setting potential career highs. This is something that really caught my attention when I read it. I figured Bowe to have gone for 1200 yds at some point and was very surprised to see that he hadn't. So, I looked back at the numbers. While its true to say he has never gone for 1200 yds or 90 catches, it's not like these numbers are unreasonable given his past. In 2010 Bowe had 1162 yds, in 2011 he had 1159 yds in 14 games and last year he had 801 in 12 games. He's been on the cusp on 1200 yds many times. As a matter of fact, his per game average of 74.3 prorated out to 1189 yds over the course of a full season. 90 catches is also something that isnt all too hard for me to see Bowe attaining either. He an 86 catch season and an 81 catch season (in 14 games). So yes, when you say a guy is going to set career highs it sounds like a stretch. However, these career highs are not all that much of a stretch IMO given Bowes history of production. He's been very close to these numbers already.Best of all, Bowe has been working with the following guys as his primary QBs in his 6 year NFL career; Cassel, Thigpen and Huard. That is an awful list of starting QBs. Probably worse than any top WR can claim as his starter over that time frame. So, getting back to your earlier point about Smith being "bellow average", which I don't agree with. How can Smith not be considered a massive upgrade, despite how much you like him, over that group of awful QBs? Smith will easily be the best QB Bowe has had his entire career IMO. Even if Smith just proves to be average. Moreover, I'd say Bowe will easily be the best WR Smith has ever had to throw to. The only guy who might be comparable is Crabtree and IMO there is almost no comparison. Bowe is a better talent. Plus, Crabtree only really stepped up after Keap took over and really his time playing at a high level with Smith was very short.I think Reid is going to get this offense to open up and Bowe should be one of many beneficiaries of it. Yes, Reid has only ever had one elite WR in his offense. At the same token, Reid has only ever had a WR who was so clearly his WR1 one other time as well. When TO was in town. Here's the thing, nobody is predicting elite production from Bowe. When TO was in Philly he averaged the following stats per game; 6 receptions, 93 yds and 1 TD. That prorated out to a season of; 96/1488/16. That is elite production. What people are projecting for Bowe, 90/1200/8 range is nothing of the sort.So in short, I'm comfortable projecting Bowe to have a "career year" in this KC offense. I don't think the levels of these projections are really that much greater than what he has already shown he is capable of in much, much worse circumstances. Bowe is the unquestioned WR1 on his team, has been given a massive upgrade at QB and a massive upgrade in coaching. I'm not sure what there isn't to like here. Perhaps contract let down?88 receptions, 1232 yds, 10 TDs.
1) Alex Smith's QB rating or NFL record mean little in terms of FF. In terms of FF, he's a below average QB for his entire career. I've been a very big Alex Smith supporter and continue to be, but at some point I'm a realist. 2) Career highs, yes it's not super high, however he's not a young kid anymore. He got paid and isn't in an ideal situation to produce those career highs. 3) Andy Reid was given two 1st round picks(Freddie Mitchell and Jeremy Maclin) and a very talented 2d rounder in Desean Jackson, yet none have ever put up 90/1200. Why should we expect an Andy Reid offense to suddenly take a 29 year old, sometimes not motivated, just got paid his fat contract Dwayne Bowe and expect a career banner year?
Because none of those guys IMO have the talent that Bowe does, nor the size/str combo. He's going to be used like they used T.O. They will get him the ball early and often. Add the fact that he's really the only WR on the team. I am the only one that remembers Reid going away from his running game consistently and going pass happy?
Bowe isn't as fast or quick as them either, he's also not in TO's ballpark. Reid is pass happy, but he spreads the whether. Which is my concern for the career high bowe numbers. I've heard he likes McCluster already, Charles will get his, maybe baldwin, etc.
Why do you say that? Pretty much the same size/speed combo. Bowe has had better production than TO at the same point in their careers. Maybe I'm biased since I've been watching Bowe since I got him in my dynasty team ever since he was drafted. I've watched him be a massive mismatch against any CB he's played against, except the Chiefs have never been able to get him the ball consistently. (BTW I HATE the Chiefs) His only season with somewhat reliable QB play in Cassel, he was downright dominant and was scoring TD's at will. He was matchup nightmare.
Excuse me?

6 years into Bowe's career his bests are: 86 receptions 1162 yards 15 TD

6 years into TO's career his bests were: 97 receptions 1451 yards 16 TD. TO also had another 90+ reception season, 1400+ yard and 14/13TD seasons.

Bowe is a good WR, but he's not elite. That's the "ballpark" i'm talking about.
One had Steve Young throwing to him, the other.....QB's make WR's, not the other way around.

That said Alex Smith sucks ### (relatively to ARod), but he's 10x better than anyone else that has thrown to him. Combined with a great pass blocking line - I see career highs.

 
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tdmills

Footballguy
tdmills said:
Beerguzzler said:
tdmills said:
jurb26 said:
Why is everyone seeing a bounce back year? I can see him increasing his totals from 2012, but not setting career highs like some of the predictions so far. He's never had a 90 catch season, he's never reached 1200 yards. Andy Reid had only one WR ever enter the elite in his offense, TO. Even then it was 77, 1200 14 in 14 games. Alex Smith's career highs are 3177 yards and 18 TDs. Bowe turns 29, just got paid, and has a below average starting QB chucking him the rock with a pass happy coach that likes to spread the ball around and feature his RB.
These points got me thinking a bit, as I'm kind of on the fence in regards to Bowe this year. I agree with you that Reid will likely run this offense thru his stud RB, Charles. After looking into some of this more however, I don't agree with your thoughts on Bowe.1st, lets talk about his "bellow average" QB. This is the statement I probably disagree with more than any. You do realize that Smith has improved every single season he's been in the NFL, right? So much to the point that his last 3 seasons as a starter have resulted in the following QB ratings; 82.1, 90.7 and 104.1. Those are not "bellow average" results. On top of that, Smith has a record of 19 - 5 over the last 2 years in games he's started.Now lets look at Bowe setting potential career highs. This is something that really caught my attention when I read it. I figured Bowe to have gone for 1200 yds at some point and was very surprised to see that he hadn't. So, I looked back at the numbers. While its true to say he has never gone for 1200 yds or 90 catches, it's not like these numbers are unreasonable given his past. In 2010 Bowe had 1162 yds, in 2011 he had 1159 yds in 14 games and last year he had 801 in 12 games. He's been on the cusp on 1200 yds many times. As a matter of fact, his per game average of 74.3 prorated out to 1189 yds over the course of a full season. 90 catches is also something that isnt all too hard for me to see Bowe attaining either. He an 86 catch season and an 81 catch season (in 14 games). So yes, when you say a guy is going to set career highs it sounds like a stretch. However, these career highs are not all that much of a stretch IMO given Bowes history of production. He's been very close to these numbers already.Best of all, Bowe has been working with the following guys as his primary QBs in his 6 year NFL career; Cassel, Thigpen and Huard. That is an awful list of starting QBs. Probably worse than any top WR can claim as his starter over that time frame. So, getting back to your earlier point about Smith being "bellow average", which I don't agree with. How can Smith not be considered a massive upgrade, despite how much you like him, over that group of awful QBs? Smith will easily be the best QB Bowe has had his entire career IMO. Even if Smith just proves to be average. Moreover, I'd say Bowe will easily be the best WR Smith has ever had to throw to. The only guy who might be comparable is Crabtree and IMO there is almost no comparison. Bowe is a better talent. Plus, Crabtree only really stepped up after Keap took over and really his time playing at a high level with Smith was very short.I think Reid is going to get this offense to open up and Bowe should be one of many beneficiaries of it. Yes, Reid has only ever had one elite WR in his offense. At the same token, Reid has only ever had a WR who was so clearly his WR1 one other time as well. When TO was in town. Here's the thing, nobody is predicting elite production from Bowe. When TO was in Philly he averaged the following stats per game; 6 receptions, 93 yds and 1 TD. That prorated out to a season of; 96/1488/16. That is elite production. What people are projecting for Bowe, 90/1200/8 range is nothing of the sort.So in short, I'm comfortable projecting Bowe to have a "career year" in this KC offense. I don't think the levels of these projections are really that much greater than what he has already shown he is capable of in much, much worse circumstances. Bowe is the unquestioned WR1 on his team, has been given a massive upgrade at QB and a massive upgrade in coaching. I'm not sure what there isn't to like here. Perhaps contract let down?88 receptions, 1232 yds, 10 TDs.
1) Alex Smith's QB rating or NFL record mean little in terms of FF. In terms of FF, he's a below average QB for his entire career. I've been a very big Alex Smith supporter and continue to be, but at some point I'm a realist. 2) Career highs, yes it's not super high, however he's not a young kid anymore. He got paid and isn't in an ideal situation to produce those career highs. 3) Andy Reid was given two 1st round picks(Freddie Mitchell and Jeremy Maclin) and a very talented 2d rounder in Desean Jackson, yet none have ever put up 90/1200. Why should we expect an Andy Reid offense to suddenly take a 29 year old, sometimes not motivated, just got paid his fat contract Dwayne Bowe and expect a career banner year?
Because none of those guys IMO have the talent that Bowe does, nor the size/str combo. He's going to be used like they used T.O. They will get him the ball early and often. Add the fact that he's really the only WR on the team. I am the only one that remembers Reid going away from his running game consistently and going pass happy?
Bowe isn't as fast or quick as them either, he's also not in TO's ballpark. Reid is pass happy, but he spreads the whether. Which is my concern for the career high bowe numbers. I've heard he likes McCluster already, Charles will get his, maybe baldwin, etc.
Bowe isn't as quick or fast as Maclin/Jackson but he's a better WR. He's plenty quick and fast, bigger, stronger, runs great routes, is good with the ball in his hands and catches the ball well. He's not spectacular in anything, but good at everything and a very good WR. Nobody is saying he is TO.Baldwin and McCluster are hardly threats IMO. Neither are all that good and neither as nearly as good as Bowe. Charles will certainly get his. I'm sure someone else in KC will as well seeing how much Reid typically throws the ball. None the less, the separation between Bowe and the field in KC is a wide gap. Wider than anything seen in Philly since TO days.Again, everything about Bowe's situation appears to have improved. Given that, I'd hardly say its that outlandish he sets some career highs. Also, you are acting as though 29 is old. It's not. At least not for WRs. Bowe is still in his prime for the most part.
Many ways to be effective as a WR. The point is that Maclin/Desean/etc are talented and Reid didn't feature them to the point that they put up massive numbers.

It's not that Baldwin/McCluster aren't threats, they're both talented. It's that Reid doesn't feature one player in his scheme.

Here are his top receiving threats as HC:

99- Torrence Small 49/655/4

00- Chad Lewis 69/735/3

01- James Thrash 63/833/8

02- Todd Pinkston 60/798/7

03- James Thrash 49/558/1

04- TO 77/1200/14

05- LJ Smith 61/682/3

06- Reggie Brown 46/816/8

07- Kevin Curtis 77/1110/6

08- Desean Jackson 62/912/2

09- Desean Jackson 62/1156/9

10- Jeremy Maclin 70/964/10

11- Desean Jackson 58/961/4

12- Jeremy Maclin 69/857/7

In 14 years as Head Coach he's had 1 season every of 1200 yards and only 2 others over 1,000. If you wan to think Reid will focus on Bowe and feed him the ball, go ahead...history tells me otherwise.

 

tdmills

Footballguy
tdmills said:
Beerguzzler said:
tdmills said:
jurb26 said:
Why is everyone seeing a bounce back year? I can see him increasing his totals from 2012, but not setting career highs like some of the predictions so far. He's never had a 90 catch season, he's never reached 1200 yards. Andy Reid had only one WR ever enter the elite in his offense, TO. Even then it was 77, 1200 14 in 14 games. Alex Smith's career highs are 3177 yards and 18 TDs. Bowe turns 29, just got paid, and has a below average starting QB chucking him the rock with a pass happy coach that likes to spread the ball around and feature his RB.
These points got me thinking a bit, as I'm kind of on the fence in regards to Bowe this year. I agree with you that Reid will likely run this offense thru his stud RB, Charles. After looking into some of this more however, I don't agree with your thoughts on Bowe.1st, lets talk about his "bellow average" QB. This is the statement I probably disagree with more than any. You do realize that Smith has improved every single season he's been in the NFL, right? So much to the point that his last 3 seasons as a starter have resulted in the following QB ratings; 82.1, 90.7 and 104.1. Those are not "bellow average" results. On top of that, Smith has a record of 19 - 5 over the last 2 years in games he's started.Now lets look at Bowe setting potential career highs. This is something that really caught my attention when I read it. I figured Bowe to have gone for 1200 yds at some point and was very surprised to see that he hadn't. So, I looked back at the numbers. While its true to say he has never gone for 1200 yds or 90 catches, it's not like these numbers are unreasonable given his past. In 2010 Bowe had 1162 yds, in 2011 he had 1159 yds in 14 games and last year he had 801 in 12 games. He's been on the cusp on 1200 yds many times. As a matter of fact, his per game average of 74.3 prorated out to 1189 yds over the course of a full season. 90 catches is also something that isnt all too hard for me to see Bowe attaining either. He an 86 catch season and an 81 catch season (in 14 games). So yes, when you say a guy is going to set career highs it sounds like a stretch. However, these career highs are not all that much of a stretch IMO given Bowes history of production. He's been very close to these numbers already.Best of all, Bowe has been working with the following guys as his primary QBs in his 6 year NFL career; Cassel, Thigpen and Huard. That is an awful list of starting QBs. Probably worse than any top WR can claim as his starter over that time frame. So, getting back to your earlier point about Smith being "bellow average", which I don't agree with. How can Smith not be considered a massive upgrade, despite how much you like him, over that group of awful QBs? Smith will easily be the best QB Bowe has had his entire career IMO. Even if Smith just proves to be average. Moreover, I'd say Bowe will easily be the best WR Smith has ever had to throw to. The only guy who might be comparable is Crabtree and IMO there is almost no comparison. Bowe is a better talent. Plus, Crabtree only really stepped up after Keap took over and really his time playing at a high level with Smith was very short.I think Reid is going to get this offense to open up and Bowe should be one of many beneficiaries of it. Yes, Reid has only ever had one elite WR in his offense. At the same token, Reid has only ever had a WR who was so clearly his WR1 one other time as well. When TO was in town. Here's the thing, nobody is predicting elite production from Bowe. When TO was in Philly he averaged the following stats per game; 6 receptions, 93 yds and 1 TD. That prorated out to a season of; 96/1488/16. That is elite production. What people are projecting for Bowe, 90/1200/8 range is nothing of the sort.So in short, I'm comfortable projecting Bowe to have a "career year" in this KC offense. I don't think the levels of these projections are really that much greater than what he has already shown he is capable of in much, much worse circumstances. Bowe is the unquestioned WR1 on his team, has been given a massive upgrade at QB and a massive upgrade in coaching. I'm not sure what there isn't to like here. Perhaps contract let down?88 receptions, 1232 yds, 10 TDs.
1) Alex Smith's QB rating or NFL record mean little in terms of FF. In terms of FF, he's a below average QB for his entire career. I've been a very big Alex Smith supporter and continue to be, but at some point I'm a realist. 2) Career highs, yes it's not super high, however he's not a young kid anymore. He got paid and isn't in an ideal situation to produce those career highs. 3) Andy Reid was given two 1st round picks(Freddie Mitchell and Jeremy Maclin) and a very talented 2d rounder in Desean Jackson, yet none have ever put up 90/1200. Why should we expect an Andy Reid offense to suddenly take a 29 year old, sometimes not motivated, just got paid his fat contract Dwayne Bowe and expect a career banner year?
Because none of those guys IMO have the talent that Bowe does, nor the size/str combo. He's going to be used like they used T.O. They will get him the ball early and often. Add the fact that he's really the only WR on the team. I am the only one that remembers Reid going away from his running game consistently and going pass happy?
Bowe isn't as fast or quick as them either, he's also not in TO's ballpark. Reid is pass happy, but he spreads the whether. Which is my concern for the career high bowe numbers. I've heard he likes McCluster already, Charles will get his, maybe baldwin, etc.
Why do you say that? Pretty much the same size/speed combo. Bowe has had better production than TO at the same point in their careers. Maybe I'm biased since I've been watching Bowe since I got him in my dynasty team ever since he was drafted. I've watched him be a massive mismatch against any CB he's played against, except the Chiefs have never been able to get him the ball consistently. (BTW I HATE the Chiefs) His only season with somewhat reliable QB play in Cassel, he was downright dominant and was scoring TD's at will. He was matchup nightmare.
Excuse me?

6 years into Bowe's career his bests are: 86 receptions 1162 yards 15 TD

6 years into TO's career his bests were: 97 receptions 1451 yards 16 TD. TO also had another 90+ reception season, 1400+ yard and 14/13TD seasons.

Bowe is a good WR, but he's not elite. That's the "ballpark" i'm talking about.
One had Steve Young throwing to him, the other.....QB's make WR's, not the other way around.

That said Alex Smith sucks ### (relatively to ARod), but he's 10x better than anyone else that has thrown to him. Combined with a great pass blocking line - I see career highs.
Now you're changing the "Bowe has had better production than TO at this point in their careers." To saying it's because of the Steve Young? For Owen's two 1400 yards season i'm referring to, Jeff Garcia was his QB.

 

Beerguzzler

Footballguy
tdmills said:
Beerguzzler said:
tdmills said:
jurb26 said:
Why is everyone seeing a bounce back year? I can see him increasing his totals from 2012, but not setting career highs like some of the predictions so far. He's never had a 90 catch season, he's never reached 1200 yards. Andy Reid had only one WR ever enter the elite in his offense, TO. Even then it was 77, 1200 14 in 14 games. Alex Smith's career highs are 3177 yards and 18 TDs. Bowe turns 29, just got paid, and has a below average starting QB chucking him the rock with a pass happy coach that likes to spread the ball around and feature his RB.
These points got me thinking a bit, as I'm kind of on the fence in regards to Bowe this year. I agree with you that Reid will likely run this offense thru his stud RB, Charles. After looking into some of this more however, I don't agree with your thoughts on Bowe.1st, lets talk about his "bellow average" QB. This is the statement I probably disagree with more than any. You do realize that Smith has improved every single season he's been in the NFL, right? So much to the point that his last 3 seasons as a starter have resulted in the following QB ratings; 82.1, 90.7 and 104.1. Those are not "bellow average" results. On top of that, Smith has a record of 19 - 5 over the last 2 years in games he's started.Now lets look at Bowe setting potential career highs. This is something that really caught my attention when I read it. I figured Bowe to have gone for 1200 yds at some point and was very surprised to see that he hadn't. So, I looked back at the numbers. While its true to say he has never gone for 1200 yds or 90 catches, it's not like these numbers are unreasonable given his past. In 2010 Bowe had 1162 yds, in 2011 he had 1159 yds in 14 games and last year he had 801 in 12 games. He's been on the cusp on 1200 yds many times. As a matter of fact, his per game average of 74.3 prorated out to 1189 yds over the course of a full season. 90 catches is also something that isnt all too hard for me to see Bowe attaining either. He an 86 catch season and an 81 catch season (in 14 games). So yes, when you say a guy is going to set career highs it sounds like a stretch. However, these career highs are not all that much of a stretch IMO given Bowes history of production. He's been very close to these numbers already.Best of all, Bowe has been working with the following guys as his primary QBs in his 6 year NFL career; Cassel, Thigpen and Huard. That is an awful list of starting QBs. Probably worse than any top WR can claim as his starter over that time frame. So, getting back to your earlier point about Smith being "bellow average", which I don't agree with. How can Smith not be considered a massive upgrade, despite how much you like him, over that group of awful QBs? Smith will easily be the best QB Bowe has had his entire career IMO. Even if Smith just proves to be average. Moreover, I'd say Bowe will easily be the best WR Smith has ever had to throw to. The only guy who might be comparable is Crabtree and IMO there is almost no comparison. Bowe is a better talent. Plus, Crabtree only really stepped up after Keap took over and really his time playing at a high level with Smith was very short.I think Reid is going to get this offense to open up and Bowe should be one of many beneficiaries of it. Yes, Reid has only ever had one elite WR in his offense. At the same token, Reid has only ever had a WR who was so clearly his WR1 one other time as well. When TO was in town. Here's the thing, nobody is predicting elite production from Bowe. When TO was in Philly he averaged the following stats per game; 6 receptions, 93 yds and 1 TD. That prorated out to a season of; 96/1488/16. That is elite production. What people are projecting for Bowe, 90/1200/8 range is nothing of the sort.So in short, I'm comfortable projecting Bowe to have a "career year" in this KC offense. I don't think the levels of these projections are really that much greater than what he has already shown he is capable of in much, much worse circumstances. Bowe is the unquestioned WR1 on his team, has been given a massive upgrade at QB and a massive upgrade in coaching. I'm not sure what there isn't to like here. Perhaps contract let down?88 receptions, 1232 yds, 10 TDs.
1) Alex Smith's QB rating or NFL record mean little in terms of FF. In terms of FF, he's a below average QB for his entire career. I've been a very big Alex Smith supporter and continue to be, but at some point I'm a realist. 2) Career highs, yes it's not super high, however he's not a young kid anymore. He got paid and isn't in an ideal situation to produce those career highs. 3) Andy Reid was given two 1st round picks(Freddie Mitchell and Jeremy Maclin) and a very talented 2d rounder in Desean Jackson, yet none have ever put up 90/1200. Why should we expect an Andy Reid offense to suddenly take a 29 year old, sometimes not motivated, just got paid his fat contract Dwayne Bowe and expect a career banner year?
Because none of those guys IMO have the talent that Bowe does, nor the size/str combo. He's going to be used like they used T.O. They will get him the ball early and often. Add the fact that he's really the only WR on the team. I am the only one that remembers Reid going away from his running game consistently and going pass happy?
Bowe isn't as fast or quick as them either, he's also not in TO's ballpark. Reid is pass happy, but he spreads the whether. Which is my concern for the career high bowe numbers. I've heard he likes McCluster already, Charles will get his, maybe baldwin, etc.
Why do you say that? Pretty much the same size/speed combo. Bowe has had better production than TO at the same point in their careers. Maybe I'm biased since I've been watching Bowe since I got him in my dynasty team ever since he was drafted. I've watched him be a massive mismatch against any CB he's played against, except the Chiefs have never been able to get him the ball consistently. (BTW I HATE the Chiefs) His only season with somewhat reliable QB play in Cassel, he was downright dominant and was scoring TD's at will. He was matchup nightmare.
Excuse me?

6 years into Bowe's career his bests are: 86 receptions 1162 yards 15 TD

6 years into TO's career his bests were: 97 receptions 1451 yards 16 TD. TO also had another 90+ reception season, 1400+ yard and 14/13TD seasons.

Bowe is a good WR, but he's not elite. That's the "ballpark" i'm talking about.
One had Steve Young throwing to him, the other.....QB's make WR's, not the other way around.

That said Alex Smith sucks ### (relatively to ARod), but he's 10x better than anyone else that has thrown to him. Combined with a great pass blocking line - I see career highs.
Now you're changing the "Bowe has had better production than TO at this point in their careers." To saying it's because of the Steve Young? For Owen's two 1400 yards season i'm referring to, Jeff Garcia was his QB.
Nah, I just didn't use 6 years. Forgot Bowe was franchised.

Young, Garcia, McNabb, Romo.....doesn't really matter. All are head's and shoulders better than anyone Bowe has had at QB.

 
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jurb26

Footballguy
In 14 years as Head Coach he's had 1 season every of 1200 yards and only 2 others over 1,000. If you wan to think Reid will focus on Bowe and feed him the ball, go ahead...history tells me otherwise.
I never said Bowe would be the feature of the offense. Actually, I was pretty clear that I felt Charles would be. Regardless, these numbers are misleading for a couple of reasons. Take Jackson for example. He had 2 seasons in which he was on pace for over 1200 yds; 1156 in 15 games and 1056 in 14 games. Also, you seem to be ignoring the fact that Jackson and Maclin have to battle each other for targets. They are similar talents at the position and really there is no clear WR1 between them. That has basically been the case for Philly in Reid's time outside of TO. The other guys on that list never approached it for a reason. They ain't nearly the talent of Bowe. That is a group of mediocre WRs at best. Comparing them to Bowe just seems silly. What history tells us is that when Reid had a full fledged WR1, only TO, that guy produced big time numbers. Nobody is saying Bowe is as good as TO in his prime, but the separation between him and the rest of the pack in KC is just as evident. Also, a lesser talent than Bowe had 2 seasons of high production with strong complimentary threat opposite of him, Jackson/Maclin. You seem to want to penalize Bowe for the fact that Jackson couldn't stay heathy and reach this threshold of 1200 yds. That makes no sense. History also tells us Bowe has been on the verge of these numbers several time in his career already and is in the prime of his career. He is moving I to a pass heavy offense where he is a clear WR1 and has what should be the best QB of his career throwing him the ball. Sure, Smith isn't elite or not even very good. But he's at least average and that's saying a lot in comparison to what Bowe's been working with.
 

msudaisy26

Footballguy
tdmills said:
Beerguzzler said:
tdmills said:
jurb26 said:
Why is everyone seeing a bounce back year? I can see him increasing his totals from 2012, but not setting career highs like some of the predictions so far. He's never had a 90 catch season, he's never reached 1200 yards. Andy Reid had only one WR ever enter the elite in his offense, TO. Even then it was 77, 1200 14 in 14 games. Alex Smith's career highs are 3177 yards and 18 TDs. Bowe turns 29, just got paid, and has a below average starting QB chucking him the rock with a pass happy coach that likes to spread the ball around and feature his RB.
These points got me thinking a bit, as I'm kind of on the fence in regards to Bowe this year. I agree with you that Reid will likely run this offense thru his stud RB, Charles. After looking into some of this more however, I don't agree with your thoughts on Bowe.1st, lets talk about his "bellow average" QB. This is the statement I probably disagree with more than any. You do realize that Smith has improved every single season he's been in the NFL, right? So much to the point that his last 3 seasons as a starter have resulted in the following QB ratings; 82.1, 90.7 and 104.1. Those are not "bellow average" results. On top of that, Smith has a record of 19 - 5 over the last 2 years in games he's started.Now lets look at Bowe setting potential career highs. This is something that really caught my attention when I read it. I figured Bowe to have gone for 1200 yds at some point and was very surprised to see that he hadn't. So, I looked back at the numbers. While its true to say he has never gone for 1200 yds or 90 catches, it's not like these numbers are unreasonable given his past. In 2010 Bowe had 1162 yds, in 2011 he had 1159 yds in 14 games and last year he had 801 in 12 games. He's been on the cusp on 1200 yds many times. As a matter of fact, his per game average of 74.3 prorated out to 1189 yds over the course of a full season. 90 catches is also something that isnt all too hard for me to see Bowe attaining either. He an 86 catch season and an 81 catch season (in 14 games). So yes, when you say a guy is going to set career highs it sounds like a stretch. However, these career highs are not all that much of a stretch IMO given Bowes history of production. He's been very close to these numbers already.Best of all, Bowe has been working with the following guys as his primary QBs in his 6 year NFL career; Cassel, Thigpen and Huard. That is an awful list of starting QBs. Probably worse than any top WR can claim as his starter over that time frame. So, getting back to your earlier point about Smith being "bellow average", which I don't agree with. How can Smith not be considered a massive upgrade, despite how much you like him, over that group of awful QBs? Smith will easily be the best QB Bowe has had his entire career IMO. Even if Smith just proves to be average. Moreover, I'd say Bowe will easily be the best WR Smith has ever had to throw to. The only guy who might be comparable is Crabtree and IMO there is almost no comparison. Bowe is a better talent. Plus, Crabtree only really stepped up after Keap took over and really his time playing at a high level with Smith was very short.I think Reid is going to get this offense to open up and Bowe should be one of many beneficiaries of it. Yes, Reid has only ever had one elite WR in his offense. At the same token, Reid has only ever had a WR who was so clearly his WR1 one other time as well. When TO was in town. Here's the thing, nobody is predicting elite production from Bowe. When TO was in Philly he averaged the following stats per game; 6 receptions, 93 yds and 1 TD. That prorated out to a season of; 96/1488/16. That is elite production. What people are projecting for Bowe, 90/1200/8 range is nothing of the sort.So in short, I'm comfortable projecting Bowe to have a "career year" in this KC offense. I don't think the levels of these projections are really that much greater than what he has already shown he is capable of in much, much worse circumstances. Bowe is the unquestioned WR1 on his team, has been given a massive upgrade at QB and a massive upgrade in coaching. I'm not sure what there isn't to like here. Perhaps contract let down?88 receptions, 1232 yds, 10 TDs.
1) Alex Smith's QB rating or NFL record mean little in terms of FF. In terms of FF, he's a below average QB for his entire career. I've been a very big Alex Smith supporter and continue to be, but at some point I'm a realist. 2) Career highs, yes it's not super high, however he's not a young kid anymore. He got paid and isn't in an ideal situation to produce those career highs. 3) Andy Reid was given two 1st round picks(Freddie Mitchell and Jeremy Maclin) and a very talented 2d rounder in Desean Jackson, yet none have ever put up 90/1200. Why should we expect an Andy Reid offense to suddenly take a 29 year old, sometimes not motivated, just got paid his fat contract Dwayne Bowe and expect a career banner year?
Because none of those guys IMO have the talent that Bowe does, nor the size/str combo. He's going to be used like they used T.O. They will get him the ball early and often. Add the fact that he's really the only WR on the team. I am the only one that remembers Reid going away from his running game consistently and going pass happy?
Bowe isn't as fast or quick as them either, he's also not in TO's ballpark. Reid is pass happy, but he spreads the whether. Which is my concern for the career high bowe numbers. I've heard he likes McCluster already, Charles will get his, maybe baldwin, etc.
Bowe isn't as quick or fast as Maclin/Jackson but he's a better WR. He's plenty quick and fast, bigger, stronger, runs great routes, is good with the ball in his hands and catches the ball well. He's not spectacular in anything, but good at everything and a very good WR. Nobody is saying he is TO.Baldwin and McCluster are hardly threats IMO. Neither are all that good and neither as nearly as good as Bowe. Charles will certainly get his. I'm sure someone else in KC will as well seeing how much Reid typically throws the ball. None the less, the separation between Bowe and the field in KC is a wide gap. Wider than anything seen in Philly since TO days.Again, everything about Bowe's situation appears to have improved. Given that, I'd hardly say its that outlandish he sets some career highs. Also, you are acting as though 29 is old. It's not. At least not for WRs. Bowe is still in his prime for the most part.
Many ways to be effective as a WR. The point is that Maclin/Desean/etc are talented and Reid didn't feature them to the point that they put up massive numbers.

It's not that Baldwin/McCluster aren't threats, they're both talented. It's that Reid doesn't feature one player in his scheme.

Here are his top receiving threats as HC:

99- Torrence Small 49/655/4

00- Chad Lewis 69/735/3

01- James Thrash 63/833/8

02- Todd Pinkston 60/798/7

03- James Thrash 49/558/1

04- TO 77/1200/14

05- LJ Smith 61/682/3

06- Reggie Brown 46/816/8

07- Kevin Curtis 77/1110/6

08- Desean Jackson 62/912/2

09- Desean Jackson 62/1156/9

10- Jeremy Maclin 70/964/10

11- Desean Jackson 58/961/4

12- Jeremy Maclin 69/857/7

In 14 years as Head Coach he's had 1 season every of 1200 yards and only 2 others over 1,000. If you wan to think Reid will focus on Bowe and feed him the ball, go ahead...history tells me otherwise.
I look at the same stats and say Bowe is going to have a great year because other than Owens, Andy Reid has never had a true number 1 receiver. Look at the numbers that have been put up in his offenses. The one year he had Owens for the full year he put up 1200 yards and 14 touchdowns. Bowe isn't in Owens class but he is a legit number 1 receiver.

 

jurb26

Footballguy
Yeah, the fact that K. Curtis put up 1110/6 in a Reid offense is about all I need to know about Bowe's potential in it. It pretty much negates all the points he was trying to make IMO.

 

tdmills

Footballguy
I've said my peace, don't think it's productive and taking away from statistical lines about Bowe. Good luck gentlemen

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
Alex Smith's QB rating the past few year is about as skewed of a stat as their is in the NFL. Basically every time he threw the ball he was catching the other team off guard. What did he throw, 20 times a game?? How did he play when he had to throw 35-40 times a game?? Did that ever even happen>?>

 

msudaisy26

Footballguy
Alex Smith's QB rating the past few year is about as skewed of a stat as their is in the NFL. Basically every time he threw the ball he was catching the other team off guard. What did he throw, 20 times a game?? How did he play when he had to throw 35-40 times a game?? Did that ever even happen>?>
It took me 3 minutes to look up his stats, so I am not sure why you couldn't instead of putting this crap on here. He has thrown the ball less than 20 times or less in a game exactly 5 times in the last 3 years. I am not including the game he got hurt.

In those 35 games he started in the last 3 years he is averaging almost 29 attempts a game

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
I really like Bowe this year at his current ADP of WR19. He's going to be the undisputed #1 target, and Smith is an upgrade over the garbage that KC has had at QB in the past few years. Now Smith isn't going to sling it all over the field (even though Andy Reid would love to do that), but there should be plenty of targets for Bowe. He easily has top 10 WR potential, and at his current price, sign me up. Will be targeting him a lot in my drafts.

85 rec, 1150 rec yds, 9 TD

 

Leonidas

Footballguy
Alex Smith's QB rating the past few year is about as skewed of a stat as their is in the NFL. Basically every time he threw the ball he was catching the other team off guard. What did he throw, 20 times a game?? How did he play when he had to throw 35-40 times a game?? Did that ever even happen>?>
It took me 3 minutes to look up his stats, so I am not sure why you couldn't instead of putting this crap on here. He has thrown the ball less than 20 times or less in a game exactly 5 times in the last 3 years. I am not including the game he got hurt.

In those 35 games he started in the last 3 years he is averaging almost 29 attempts a game
Thank you for taking the three minutes to look that up and post it. Saves some of us that time.

It's nice when people actually get numbers they post correct.

 

mphtrilogy

Footballguy
Tight end stats were nice under Alex, but WRs stats never seemed to jump. Crabtree came alive under Colin, not Alex.

That being said, Andy will find a way to get the ball to Bowe.

I expect a strong season 1300yards, 9 tds.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Alex Smith's QB rating the past few year is about as skewed of a stat as their is in the NFL. Basically every time he threw the ball he was catching the other team off guard. What did he throw, 20 times a game?? How did he play when he had to throw 35-40 times a game?? Did that ever even happen>?>
It took me 3 minutes to look up his stats, so I am not sure why you couldn't instead of putting this crap on here. He has thrown the ball less than 20 times or less in a game exactly 5 times in the last 3 years. I am not including the game he got hurt. In those 35 games he started in the last 3 years he is averaging almost 29 attempts a game
Sure, the guy was exaggerating, but let's not blow off his point because of the exaggeration. The premise is still true. The 49ers have ranked 31st in passing attempts the last two years. You did not address his second question about 35+ attempts which only occurred 4 times in the last 2 years (once in 2012 with his 104 QBR). Those four games total to 86 of 152 for 56.6%, 6.2 ypa, 236 ypg, 6 TD, 2 INT Or a 16 game extrapolation of 344/608 for 3780/24/8. Last year that would've ranked 7th in attempts and 15th in yards. Think Sam Bradford/Nick Foles type numbers. That being said, I'm not sure where I stand on Bowe. He's more talented than most of Reid's previous wide receivers and Alex Smith is at least a modest upgrade over all of Bowe's previous quarterbacks. However, Alex Smith is not McNabb in his prime, Bowe has just gotten paid, and new offenses are always an unknown. I feel like his ADP is priced just about right given the risks here. Obviously his upside is way above his ADP, but would anyone really be shocked if this situation didn't pan out? TO may have been a headache, but the guy was dedicated to his physical conditioning and he was a fierce competitor. I agree with the statement that Bowe is not in the same ballpark as TO.Edit: typo
 
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Grahamburn

Footballguy
Dwayne Bowe is on my radar every year. I've always liked his skillset. I usually start with a baseline of 75/1,050/6. Then pay attention to OTA's, mini camps, and training camp reports to see if he's motivated in this particular season or not. I adjust up or down depending on those reports.

Other than the 15 TD outlier season Bowe has never had more than 7 TDs. He's never had more than 1,162 yards. He's going into his 7th season. Alex Smith has never thrown for more than 18 TDs. We usually know what guys are by this point in their careers.

New head coach, new QB who is notorious for quick throws to RBs and TEs, and a new offense with a penchant for spreading the ball around.

Are the Chiefs going to come out humming on offense from day 1?

There really isn't too much to suggest a "huge bounce back" or "career year" for Dwayne Bowe here. He's probably ranked appropriately around WR20.

75/1,050/6.

 

cstu

Footballguy
Dwayne Bowe is on my radar every year. I've always liked his skillset. I usually start with a baseline of 75/1,050/6. Then pay attention to OTA's, mini camps, and training camp reports to see if he's motivated in this particular season or not. I adjust up or down depending on those reports.

Other than the 15 TD outlier season Bowe has never had more than 7 TDs. He's never had more than 1,162 yards. He's going into his 7th season. Alex Smith has never thrown for more than 18 TDs. We usually know what guys are by this point in their careers.

New head coach, new QB who is notorious for quick throws to RBs and TEs, and a new offense with a penchant for spreading the ball around.

Are the Chiefs going to come out humming on offense from day 1?

There really isn't too much to suggest a "huge bounce back" or "career year" for Dwayne Bowe here. He's probably ranked appropriately around WR20.

75/1,050/6.
This is mainly due to his lack of attempts since his TD percentage is actually decent (over 4% the last 4 years). He's not likely to be a TD machine but 22 TD's isn't unreasonable if he throws the ball 530 times.

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
Dwayne Bowe is on my radar every year. I've always liked his skillset. I usually start with a baseline of 75/1,050/6. Then pay attention to OTA's, mini camps, and training camp reports to see if he's motivated in this particular season or not. I adjust up or down depending on those reports.

Other than the 15 TD outlier season Bowe has never had more than 7 TDs. He's never had more than 1,162 yards. He's going into his 7th season. Alex Smith has never thrown for more than 18 TDs. We usually know what guys are by this point in their careers.

New head coach, new QB who is notorious for quick throws to RBs and TEs, and a new offense with a penchant for spreading the ball around.

Are the Chiefs going to come out humming on offense from day 1?

There really isn't too much to suggest a "huge bounce back" or "career year" for Dwayne Bowe here. He's probably ranked appropriately around WR20.

75/1,050/6.
This is mainly due to his lack of attempts since his TD percentage is actually decent (over 4% the last 4 years). He's not likely to be a TD machine but 22 TD's isn't unreasonable if he throws the ball 530 times.
I figured that would be the argument when I made the comment. Maybe his lack of attempts is directly correlated to his inefficieny throwing the football? Teams can't usually hide their QB in the NFL, but the 49ers tried it for several years.

I realize Andy Reid is a pass happy coach, but we all saw what can happen in that situation if the signal caller struggles. It really doesn't matter how many times you throw if you can't complete the passes.

Even if you make the argument for Smith to throw 22 TDs, how many can you allot for Bowe? 30%? 40%? We'd really be pushing the boundaries of what both players have done in their careers to date.

 

Acrobat7

Footballguy
Just drafted him as my WR3 in a keeper league, since I think he'll be a very good fit in a true west coast offense. It should play to his strengths.

 

KellysHeroes

Footballguy
Why is everyone seeing a bounce back year? I can see him increasing his totals from 2012, but not setting career highs like some of the predictions so far. He's never had a 90 catch season, he's never reached 1200 yards. Andy Reid had only one WR ever enter the elite in his offense, TO. Even then it was 77, 1200 14 in 14 games. Alex Smith's career highs are 3177 yards and 18 TDs. Bowe turns 29, just got paid, and has a below average starting QB chucking him the rock with a pass happy coach that likes to spread the ball around and feature his RB.
now Andy has baby TO to play with :) , seriously Bowe is the 2nd most talented hes ever coach and it would be stupid of him not to run the passing game though Bowe and Charles.I picked up DB in 2 leagues so far and while I'm not expecting a monster yr I am expecting a decent WR2 yr out of WR3 value.

75 Rec 1150 yards 10 TDs

 

DexterDew

Footballguy
reason #1 to hate Twitter: it is like a fricken tinder box and any bit of bad news ignites a fire that feeds on itself.

saw from multiple sources that he was "carted off" (there is that damn term again).

after a tiny bit of digging found: Source says #Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe suffered a server cramp. Walked off the field & then rode off on the cart there after.

So yes, we was "carted off", but not like he was pronated on a cart with a towel over his head.

Back to the topic at hand, I like Bowe as a value play in redrafts. Would be very comfortable with him as my WR2 if I went RB/RB early... probably wouldn't consider him until the 5th at a minimum since there is very little hype for him. I still have visions of him in beast mode when he wants to take over a game... just hope he still wants to after getting paid.

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
i like bowe, but I REALLY like his schedule, but at his current ADP he is priced exactly where he should be. His value comes if you can nab him as a number 3 wr.

 
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Team ROFLCOPTERS

Footballguy
Bowe is my fantasy kryptonite. I always have to have him. I usually get him at what I perceive as a discount and he becomes a wasted pick for me. I'll do it again this year but I am not going to reach.

78 970 7

That's what I will draft him as. That means I probably will not get him.

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
does he even have a catch this pre-season? Getting worried
I love it. It will keep his value from skyrocketing. :thumbup: :thumbup:

Barring injury, I think 80-1,100-7 is his floor this year. Someone has to catch all of those passes Andy Reid will call, and Bowe is a great talent and the unquestioned number 1 in KC.

 

jurb26

Footballguy
does he even have a catch this pre-season? Getting worried
I love it. It will keep his value from skyrocketing. :thumbup: :thumbup:

Barring injury, I think 80-1,100-7 is his floor this year. Someone has to catch all of those passes Andy Reid will call, and Bowe is a great talent and the unquestioned number 1 in KC.
Right on! I'm hoping to land him in the 4th or 5th round (have the 2nd pick slot) in an upcoming draft. This guy is going to see a lot of action in Reid's new offense.
 

HurryUpSundays

Footballguy
After seeing him tonight I have no worries.
Why not?

I didn't see any of the game but everything I'm reading says that Alex Smith's fear to throw down field is severely going to limit Bowe this year. I like Bowe's talent and situation, but could this be shaping up for him to have a Fitzy2012-type of let down?

 

UKColt

Footballguy
After seeing him tonight I have no worries.
Why not?

I didn't see any of the game but everything I'm reading says that Alex Smith's fear to throw down field is severely going to limit Bowe this year. I like Bowe's talent and situation, but could this be shaping up for him to have a Fitzy2012-type of let down?
No, because while Smith doesn't go down field often, he's accurate enough in the short-immediate game to make Bowe a fantasy factor.

Skelton/Lindley were just terrible all around.

 

rickyg

Footballguy
Having bowe as your wr2 this year will be money in the bank, ppr or standard wont matter.

If he stays healthy he will be a top 12 wr easily this year. He is a monster. Smith is a good qb. There will be ample opportunity to score.

Everyone take a deep breath and relax. Preseason is bs.

 

Pumpnick

Footballguy
Jeff Pasquino: I just cannot get behind Dwayne Bowe as a Top 20 wide receiver. Bowe's game is to get deep and make big plays, and Kansas City is just not built now for him to perform like that.

Is this really all Bowe is? I could definitly see him catching a ton of short passes in this offense. Am I off here?

 

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