Player Spotlight: Earnest Graham (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Earnest Graham, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Page Link: Earnest Graham Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

There's always that one player an opportunistic owner can get off the waiver wire during the course of a season that makes a difference, and last year one of those players was Earnest Graham. Graham landed the job after injuries to starters and did more than just fill a role, he has earned himself a starting position.

I've was extremely impressed with Graham and he's been outstanding value all off season long for Graham believers. He's gone as late as 4th round in survivor leagues during the winter (16 team leagues), PPR to boot. Now that the season is creeping closer, many others who are catching up to speed are realizing that Graham will be the guy in Tampa Bay, where the starting RB has some significant value. Graham displayed above average hands in catching a plethera of dump off passes from Garcia, almost so at the end of last season it looked as if Graham was their only means of offense whether it was running or passing.

I'm bullish on Graham, I understand he isn't the only guy in Tampa Bay but he'll represent good value in your draft, especially PPR leagues.

950 yards and 7 td's 49 receptions for 400 yards and 3 td's

 

[QUEZILLA]

Earnest Graham performed very well last year when Tampa needed him. The only issue I see is that he actually has better competition this year than Michael Pittman. Michael Bennet joined the team late last year, so he didn't know the system well enough for Gruden to rely on him. Now he is in his 2nd year with the team, and Dunn is a proven guy. Not to mention, there have already been reports that Caddy is looking good and may return this year.

I love EG, but I think his value peaked last year when he was the only option the Bucs had. Also, they didn't really give him that good of a contract, and it's definitely not good starter money.

If anyone pays attention to my post you will know I have been very high on the Bucs O-line. I personally feel LG Aron Sears played a bigger part in the success of the run game that EG did. The one part of EG's game I was however impressed with was his consistency in catching the ball. Other than that I don't think he is an overly impressive RB. None the less, whoever is running behind this line is going to gain yards. The addition of Faine will help as well.

Even though I think he is overrated as a RB, I think TBs O is highly underrated. I expect all Bucs RBs numbers to improve. Faine is one of the best blocking centers for the screen pass, so I expect RB receptions to go up this year.

200 attempts, 900 yds, 8 td, 50 rec, 350 yds

 

[Tanner9919]

Earnest Graham performed very well last year when Tampa needed him. The only issue I see is that he actually has better competition this year than Michael Pittman. Michael Bennet joined the team late last year, so he didn't know the system well enough for Gruden to rely on him. Now he is in his 2nd year with the team, and Dunn is a proven guy. Not to mention, there have already been reports that Caddy is looking good and may return this year. I love EG, but I think his value peaked last year when he was the only option the Bucs had. Also, they didn't really give him that good of a contract, and it's definitely not good starter money. If anyone pays attention to my post you will know I have been very high on the Bucs O-line. I personally feel LG Aron Sears played a bigger part in the success of the run game that EG did. The one part of EG's game I was however impressed with was his consistency in catching the ball. Other than that I don't think he is an overly impressive RB. None the less, whoever is running behind this line is going to gain yards. The addition of Faine will help as well.

Michael Bennett has never been, and will never be, better than Michael Pittman..sorry, just not happening.Bennett is a two-bit bum who is only in the NFL because of his world-class speed..other than that, the guy is useless..Dunn was a nice signing, but he's a somewhat washed up journeyman RB at this point..not sure he's going to be anything but a 3rd-down guy. I'm not a TB homer, you apparently are and probably know a lot more about the team and Earnest Graham in particular, but just going on what I've seen/read/heard about the others, Graham is the best RB of the bunch..From what I've read, Caddy is not going to be ready for training camp, nor will he be ready for opening day..he might play at some stage this season, but even that might be wishful thinking. I doubt he makes it back at all...his career might be finished. I'm not saying Graham is a stud, but, he's the ONLY RB they can rely on to carry a full workload this season..I mean, you can expect him to be able to handle a 250+ carry workload, can't expect the same from Dunn and certainly not from Bennett either..going on that assumption, I'll sayGraham - 290/1160/11, 60/396/1

 

[tamales]

Guys a bull on the goalline and a great receiver. Dunn worries me a bit. 256 att, 1050 yds, 10 td, 48 rec, 288 yds

 

[rzrback77]

Earnest Graham is another guy in the lower RB2 range that can offer value and allow savvy drafters to grab two solid WRs in rounds two and three and still potentially snag a stud RB in round four. He gave Tampa Bay all they needed last year when they were in desperate straights and I think that his production continues this year. He is also an excellent receiver out of the backfield so he is especially draft worthy in ppr leagues. I personally think that Warrick Dunn is insurance for a Graham injury. Assuming that Cadillac is out of the picture, Dunn would be a great late round hand-cuff for Graham as he should be very cheap. I don't see Michael Bennett making any impact for the Bucs in 08.

Earnest Graham 290 carries 1160 yards 4.0 ypc 45 receptions 315 yds 7.0 ypc and 10 total TDs

 

[gopherII]

I think the beat writers and FF analysts have written this guy off WAY too early. I just watched the replay of the Bucs/Giants playoff game on NFL network. The guy hits the holes hard and has very soft hands on receptions out of the backfield. Tampa's offensive line is going to open up some major opportunities for him. His contract situation, speculation on a miraculous recovery for Caddy, and the signing of Warrick Dunn as a backup and fan favorite have Earnest Graham set up to be a very good value pick this year.

275 att, 1150 yds, 10 td, 50 rec, 350 yds, 2 td

 

[moderated]

Grahams value really depends on how people think of Dunn and Caddy's outlook for 08'. Bennett isn't really even in the picture IMO, the guy is a gimmick you can throw in there for a carry or two and hope he can run untouched, but besides that he isn't good at anything.

Dunn - my opinion from watching him last year is that he has very little left. One of the most under-rated guys throughout his career, but he's very close to being able to collect social security at this stage and can't see him getting over 60-80 carries on the season. Brought in as more of a player coach.

Caddy is a huge wildcard, but all indications are that he won't be ready till at least mid-season and even then i highly doubt they rush him back as long as Graham is performing.

I'd cautiously optimistic about Graham for no other reason then he's by far the best healthy RB on the team. That isn't really saying much since Bennett is horrible and Dunn at 33 is washed up, but Graham is clearly better then either of them at every facet of the game at this stage.

280 carries 1,176 yds, 9 td, 50 rec, 340 yards

A very solid #2 RB to add to your fantasy stable.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Cadillac has to be the only person in the history of the world to suffer a near career ending knee injury and still be overhyped.

Everyone wants to talk about him coming back and taking over this year, if he does come back, he won't be the same guy he was before, and the guy he was before really wasn't that effective.

Graham on the other hand, excelled in every aspect. He was tough between the tackles, showed decent speed, excellent receiving ability--total gem in PPR.

They said he'd lose touches to Michael Bennet last year...didn't really happen. They say he'll lose touches to Dunn this year...eh Dunn's old and beat up. They'll keep him from being a 300 carry back, but he'll be the lead horse.

The QB situation is iffy, but defenses have to stay back to account for Galloway's insane speed.

275 Rushes

1115 Yards

10 TDs

44 Receptions

303 Yards

2 TDs

1418 Total Yards

12 TDs

He'll be a borderline first rounder in my opinion, going considerably later than that.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

Now that Kevin Jones signed with the Bears, anyone else think that Graham gets a boost with only an old Dunn and an injured Caddy? I think he blows up this year with 1200 rushing yards, 350 receiving yards and 12 total TDs...

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I don't know about 1200 rushing yards but he can probably get 1000. With the receptions and TD's he should be a decent rb. I don't see Warrick Dunn and Cadillac Williams as threats to his fantasy prospects.

 

[Banger]

I won't touch Graham on any of my teams this year. He's an average back with a newly acquired Dunn and potentially returning Caddy in the wings. I think Dunn's impact is being minimized/overlooked by many.

 

[treat88]

I think Dunn's impact is being minimized/overlooked by many.

I whole-heartedly agree.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

I think Dunn's impact is being minimized/overlooked by many.

I whole-heartedly agree.

Dunn is 33 and I see no more than 700 total yards this year from him and with Caddy still working back, Graham gets the bulk of the carries...and by the way, 1200 yards rushing is 75 yards a game which is more than manageable facing the Saints and Falcons twice...

 

[Iron_Far]

Kevin Jones was going to be a bigger threat than Dunn will be.

I think Graham finishes as a Top 10 RB.

 

[ratbast]

Gruden has not done anything except solidify his change of pace back (dunn and bennett signing). That might keep Graham from getting "ALL" the carries but I'll take a guy that should get "ALL" the TDs and still be used in the passing game because he's good at it.

I think Gruden's approach to his RBs says he loves Ernie and he's his guy and he's going to get "most" of the carries, even though Gruden will run with the other guys alot as his history has suggested. Sometimes true NFL evaluations from coaches are better signs than all the stats and bunk we believe in, sometimes.