Player Spotlight: Greg Olsen (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Greg Olsen, TE, Chicago Bears

Player Page Link: Greg Olsen Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Harjiran]

I think Olsen is easily the best receiver on a team that will look to pass more with the arrival of Cutler.

80 rec, 850 yards, 7 TDs.

 

[rzrback77]

Greg Olsen was drafted at the end of the first round in 07. He has had two solid not spectacular seasons. His stats are provided below:

07 14 gms 66 targets (4.7 per game) 39 catches 59.0% 391 yds 10.0 ypc and 2 TDs TE22 in FBG Scoring

08 16 gms 82 targets (5.1 per game) 54 catches 65.8% 574 yds 10.5 ypc and 5 TDs TE10 in FBG Scoring

For the Bears, he has been the opposite of Matt Forte. Olsen has awesome talent, but has to share his opportunities with Desmond Clark. Clark's last two year stats for comparison:

07 14 gms 66 targets (4.1 per game) 44 catches 66.7% 545 yds 12.4 ypc and 4 TDs TE12 in FBG Scoring

08 16 gms 73 targets (4.6 per game) 41 catches 56.2% 367 yds 9.0 ypc and 1 TD TE30 in FBG Scoring

The two Chicago Bear TEs have similar stat lines. Granted that Olsen increased his production from 07 to 08, while Clark showed a similar decline, but they have both been involved in the offense and should stay involved. As such, nobody has been getting the lion's share of the opportunity. I realize that most folks consider Cutler as such an improvement over Orton that the Chicago offense is going to have a radical shift to passing. But, they did pass for 3229 yards and 20 TDs last year. I have doubts that they even reach that plateau.

I see Olsen as a middle of the pack TE and possibly not meeting the expectation of someone with ADP of TE7 and 89 overall.

Greg Olsen 90 targets 59 catches 608 yds 10.2 ypc and 6 TDs

 

[Jason Wood]

Not a lot of discussion for one of the more intriguing TE prospects this season. Olsen showed excellent growth in his 2nd season (54, 574, 5 TDs), finishing as the 10th best TE.

With Jay Cutler aboard, and the uncertainty at the WR position, it's difficult for me to understand why Olsen isn't on people's TE short lists. At his current ADP (TE7, 8th rounder); Olsen isn't flying under the radar but I still think he represents solid value if you're unwilling or unable to draft one of the elite TEs several rounds earlier.

 

[RoyDubb]

Greg Olsen was drafted at the end of the first round in 07. He has had two solid not spectacular seasons. His stats are provided below:

07 14 gms 66 targets (4.7 per game) 39 catches 59.0% 391 yds 10.0 ypc and 2 TDs TE22 in FBG Scoring

08 16 gms 82 targets (5.1 per game) 54 catches 65.8% 574 yds 10.5 ypc and 5 TDs TE10 in FBG Scoring

For the Bears, he has been the opposite of Matt Forte. Olsen has awesome talent, but has to share his opportunities with Desmond Clark. Clark's last two year stats for comparison:

07 14 gms 66 targets (4.1 per game) 44 catches 66.7% 545 yds 12.4 ypc and 4 TDs TE12 in FBG Scoring

08 16 gms 73 targets (4.6 per game) 41 catches 56.2% 367 yds 9.0 ypc and 1 TD TE30 in FBG Scoring

The two Chicago Bear TEs have similar stat lines. Granted that Olsen increased his production from 07 to 08, while Clark showed a similar decline, but they have both been involved in the offense and should stay involved. As such, nobody has been getting the lion's share of the opportunity. I realize that most folks consider Cutler as such an improvement over Orton that the Chicago offense is going to have a radical shift to passing. But, they did pass for 3229 yards and 20 TDs last year. I have doubts that they even reach that plateau.

I see Olsen as a middle of the pack TE and possibly not meeting the expectation of someone with ADP of TE7 and 89 overall.

Greg Olsen 90 targets 59 catches 608 yds 10.2 ypc and 6 TDs

only 90 targets for a team thats most likely to throw 520+ times, with no legit WR1 on the outside ????????

 

[Trent]

Greg Olsen is in for a big year. I think he wil be Cutler's Security blanket at the beginning of the season. He'll have a few six to eight catch games in the first half of the season, and once Cutler starts to get more comfortable with his other options Olsen will be able to get deep all over the field.

Greg Olsen 63 receptions 711 yds 11.3 ypc 8 tds

 

[therokie0070]

will finish at the 3 spot behind the big two Gates and Witten!!! 65 rec 795 yards 8 TD, best TE considering price.

 

[Ghost of Bill Walsh]

If you're not willing to jump on one of the priemier TE's then Olsen represents decent value to wait on. Yes he has Dez Clark to contend with but his talent will get him more targets than Clark. I think Cutler's going to be spreading the ball around with no clear cut stud receiver. He may rekindle chemistry with Earl Bennett but we'll have to see. Cutler wants to be the centerpiece and show off his gunslinging skills. I think Olsen will see a fair amount of targets coming his way. Olsen improves on his numbers from last year and will be a good TE1.

60-70 receptions

625- 750 yds

7 tds

 

[3nOut]

Not a lot of discussion for one of the more intriguing TE prospects this season. Olsen showed excellent growth in his 2nd season (54, 574, 5 TDs), finishing as the 10th best TE.With Jay Cutler aboard, and the uncertainty at the WR position, it's difficult for me to understand why Olsen isn't on people's TE short lists. At his current ADP (TE7, 8th rounder); Olsen isn't flying under the radar but I still think he represents solid value if you're unwilling or unable to draft one of the elite TEs several rounds earlier.

Jason, I'm having a hard time gauging his value compare to other 'upside' TEs in his tier. How would you compare him to others like Keller or Celek. Not sure where the better investment is.

 

[Cawbird]

65 rec

715 yds

6 td's

I think that people are a little too high on the td projections. Even when Cutler was airing it out in Denver, the leading receiver only had 6 td's. Bennett and Forte will get a lot of looks inside the redzone when they are passing. Cutler will also have to cut down on his redzone mistakes for the td marks to go up.

I see Olsen having a greater role in the 2nd half of the season when the Bears finally realize that Devin Hester is better utilized in the return game where he can set up better field position. He is not a WR1 and the Bears will adjust mid-season.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I see Olsen having a greater role in the 2nd half of the season when the Bears finally realize that Devin Hester is better utilized in the return game where he can set up better field position. He is not a WR1 and the Bears will adjust mid-season.

Slightly OT, but Olsen seemed to really believe that Hester has made great strides this offseason when he was interviewed on ESPN last week. He wasn't even really prompted to talk about Hester.

Olsen said. "Obviously Devin [Hester], everyone knows about Devin and what he's been able to do. I think he's going to surprise some people. What he was able to do this off-season and the way he looked in OTA's and minicamp, I think he looks like a top-tier receiver.

 

[The Velvet Hammer]

I see Olsen having a greater role in the 2nd half of the season when the Bears finally realize that Devin Hester is better utilized in the return game where he can set up better field position. He is not a WR1 and the Bears will adjust mid-season.

Slightly OT, but Olsen seemed to really believe that Hester has made great strides this offseason when he was interviewed on ESPN last week. He wasn't even really prompted to talk about Hester.

Olsen said. "Obviously Devin [Hester], everyone knows about Devin and what he's been able to do. I think he's going to surprise some people. What he was able to do this off-season and the way he looked in OTA's and minicamp, I think he looks like a top-tier receiver.

How would Greg Olsen know what a top tier WR looks like in practice? He doesn't have one to compare him to. With that being said I think Olsen takes his game up a notch with Cutler.70 rec

856 yards

5 TD

 

[Bears0492]

"Greg Olsen, TE Bears – Now in his third year, Olsen is poised for a major breakout season. New Bears QB Jay Cutler loves his tight ends and will look to Olsen frequently this year. Olsen is a very tall target for Cutler and he is too fast for linebackers and safeties that cover him and too big for cornerbacks that cover him. He is a good receiving tight end and should post at least 800 yards and 8 touchdowns. He could be a steal if you can get him in the later rounds."

Found that on the site I usually go to, http://FantasyFootballTalk.net

What do you guys think? I think 800 might be a bit of a stretch personally, but good analysis

 

[Bears0492]

Actually, Olsen's talented enough to be able to get 800 yards. We'll see.

 

[3nOut]

Not a lot of discussion for one of the more intriguing TE prospects this season. Olsen showed excellent growth in his 2nd season (54, 574, 5 TDs), finishing as the 10th best TE.With Jay Cutler aboard, and the uncertainty at the WR position, it's difficult for me to understand why Olsen isn't on people's TE short lists. At his current ADP (TE7, 8th rounder); Olsen isn't flying under the radar but I still think he represents solid value if you're unwilling or unable to draft one of the elite TEs several rounds earlier.

Jason, I'm having a hard time gauging his value compare to other 'upside' TEs in his tier. How would you compare him to others like Keller or Celek. Not sure where the better investment is.

Bumping my own question....

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Not a lot of discussion for one of the more intriguing TE prospects this season. Olsen showed excellent growth in his 2nd season (54, 574, 5 TDs), finishing as the 10th best TE.With Jay Cutler aboard, and the uncertainty at the WR position, it's difficult for me to understand why Olsen isn't on people's TE short lists. At his current ADP (TE7, 8th rounder); Olsen isn't flying under the radar but I still think he represents solid value if you're unwilling or unable to draft one of the elite TEs several rounds earlier.

Jason, I'm having a hard time gauging his value compare to other 'upside' TEs in his tier. How would you compare him to others like Keller or Celek. Not sure where the better investment is.

Bumping my own question....

To me, the value is similar, but I think Olsen has the highest 2009 ceiling. He is only one, imo, with a star QB, and no real WR1. Keller might suffer because of a focus on defense/run game with young QB. Carlson should be solid again. But, Houshy should limit his upside. Olsen could vault into top 3-5 TEs this season.

 

[buck naked]

I think Olsen is easily the best receiver on a team that will look to pass more with the arrival of Cutler. 80 rec, 850 yards, 7 TDs.

The Bears will not pass more this season. They now just have a better passer. Big difference.Olsen - 68 rec., 790 yards, 6 tds.

 

[Banger]

There is no TE that I'm higher on (for the value) than Olsen this year. He's got one of the best QB's in the game (IMO) throwing him the ball, their offense is very TE friendly, he was their best red zone target last year and that hasn't change and Cutler has shown that he can lock onto their best wr at will (which I believe Olsen is). I think he can easily be top 5.

100 targets - 70 - 770 - 8.

I just wish people would keep quiet about him because I see his stock going up, up, up as the draft approachs.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

too big for cornerbacks that cover him.

I don't know about this. GB played man coverage on Olsen for most of one game and completely took him out of it during that time. I would think other teams might try to copy this if they can. There's no receiver demanding DB attention in Chicago right now.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I just wish people would keep quiet about him because I see his stock going up, up, up as the draft approachs.

Now that he's been named the starter over Clark it's really going to shoot up.

 

[booda]

got him in the 8th round tonite in a PPR...

 

[Bears0492]

too big for cornerbacks that cover him.

I don't know about this. GB played man coverage on Olsen for most of one game and completely took him out of it during that time. I would think other teams might try to copy this if they can. There's no receiver demanding DB attention in Chicago right now.

Dunno what you're talking about. In the 2 games against GBWeek 11 - 4 rec. for 45 yardsWeek 16 - 5 rec. for 49 yards and 1 tdAnd yeah now that he's the starter, I can see his numbers doing even better. I'm just glad that Desmond Clark was cool about it and didn't act #####y like most athletes would have if that happened to them.

 

[zadok]

Loving Olsen this year. Not just for value, but overall.

75-900-6

Good enough for TE1 in my rankings. And his TDs could easily go higher.

 

[Chigurh]

My one and only bold prediction of the year:

Greg Olsen is about to become the #1 fantasy TE in the league and it won't even be close.

90 catches, 1100 yards, 11 TDs.

 

[Jayrod]

My one and only bold prediction of the year:Greg Olsen is about to become the #1 fantasy TE in the league and it won't even be close.90 catches, 1100 yards, 11 TDs.

I just wet my pants.

 

[Mene]

My one and only bold prediction of the year:Greg Olsen is about to become the #1 fantasy TE in the league and it won't even be close.90 catches, 1100 yards, 11 TDs.

I hope you are right. I have Olsen in every cash league I am in, taking him on average as the 6th TE off the board. I have him coming in at 78/933/7.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

too big for cornerbacks that cover him.

I don't know about this. GB played man coverage on Olsen for most of one game and completely took him out of it during that time. I would think other teams might try to copy this if they can. There's no receiver demanding DB attention in Chicago right now.

HEARD 'EM SAY

 

[Knobs]

Looking like he won't do much this year.

 

[Buffaloes]

Looking like he won't do much this year.

I agree that this is not what owners were looking for 2 weeks into the season, but Chicago still doesn't have a great option on the outside and I still think Cutler will go to Olsen quite a bit this year. He hit Olsen a few times at key points in the game and Olsen held on to the ball despite getting drilled. He and Cutler are buddies off the field like Cutler and Scheffler were buddies off the field in Denver. The Bears just played a game where Cutler threw 4 INTs and then played the Steelers in the rain. I'm confident Olsen will come around sooner rather than later.

 

[jafo]

Looking like he won't do much this year.

I agree that this is not what owners were looking for 2 weeks into the season, but Chicago still doesn't have a great option on the outside and I still think Cutler will go to Olsen quite a bit this year. He hit Olsen a few times at key points in the game and Olsen held on to the ball despite getting drilled. He and Cutler are buddies off the field like Cutler and Scheffler were buddies off the field in Denver. The Bears just played a game where Cutler threw 4 INTs and then played the Steelers in the rain. I'm confident Olsen will come around sooner rather than later.

If thats the case I hope Cutler makes an off the field buddy or two from the offensive line.

 

[gigantor]

I thought he looked great against Pitt. Am I missing something?

 

[Garts]

My one and only bold prediction of the year:Greg Olsen is about to become the #1 fantasy TE in the league and it won't even be close.90 catches, 1100 yards, 11 TDs.

kerplunk

 

[urbanhack]

buy low

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I still think he'll be a top 6 TE by year's end. If Knox starts getting defenses' respect that will be a big help.

 

[nzranger]

I thought he looked great against Pitt. Am I missing something?

No, I thought he looked great except for one really bad drop that hit him in the hands (not the play where he got drilled on the sidelines). He came back tough on the play over the middle where he got drilled again and hung on.Moreover I think Cutler has looked really good since halftime of game 1, but his receivers have really hurt him. Knox has been the lone bright spot on that receiver corp, but he will still make rookie mistakes (see game ending play week 1). Wk1 was a complete abortion with missed TD's (Clark in the end zone) and three of his picks coming from receivers that gave up on routes (maybe you get used to that when you have Orton responsible for going through the progressions and consistently checking down to the RB if the first option isnt open). Although there was some improvement in week 2 it's still a very raw receiving corp. All of this can only lead to more targets for Olsen IMO.

 

[Doughhead]

Has Olsen slipped into the Z Miller/Keller/Celek tier, or do people still see him as a cut above that going forward?

 

[Firekaps]

Homer here. Not sure what you people are watching but Olsen has been very dissapointing. He has had several drops and still has yet to break a tackle in his NFL career. Wacthing Dallas Clark last night should show anyone that Olsen is nowhere near as fast or cagey as that guy. He gets no separation, either.

Meanwhile, Kellen Davis was impressive. He could become a red zone target for Cutler, which would eat even more into Olsen's stats.

Temper expectations.

 

[the roflmobile]

Got Carlson and Olsen. Considering dropping Olsen after the bye. He has a couple more weeks to show me what he's got.

 

[Garts]

Homer here. Not sure what you people are watching but Olsen has been very dissapointing. He has had several drops and still has yet to break a tackle in his NFL career. Wacthing Dallas Clark last night should show anyone that Olsen is nowhere near as fast or cagey as that guy. He gets no separation, either.Meanwhile, Kellen Davis was impressive. He could become a red zone target for Cutler, which would eat even more into Olsen's stats.Temper expectations.

Olsen would embarass Dallas Clark in a 40 yd sprint. Olsen is one of the fastest TE's in the NFL.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

In watching the replay, I noticed that Cutler's first read was to Olsen on quite a few plays. A couple of those occurred in the red zone. I think he'll settle in alright and we'll see a rise in his production soon.

 

[maxwjom0]

Steelers homer here who watched the game and thought Olsen was one of my steals of the draft and would finish no lower than top 5 TE. Olsen also slipped and fell on what looked like almost a sure TD catch and dropped another pass when the Steelers saftey put a major hit on him.

Olsen is on my bench and Keller is starting until I see Olsen do something

 

[Sabertooth]

Steelers homer here who watched the game and thought Olsen was one of my steals of the draft and would finish no lower than top 5 TE. Olsen also slipped and fell on what looked like almost a sure TD catch and dropped another pass when the Steelers saftey put a major hit on him.Olsen is on my bench and Keller is starting until I see Olsen do something

I think Olsen is going to rebound somewhat. He's got obvious talent and moving forward I don't see him being held down each week.

 

[ffguru56]

Steelers homer here who watched the game and thought Olsen was one of my steals of the draft and would finish no lower than top 5 TE. Olsen also slipped and fell on what looked like almost a sure TD catch and dropped another pass when the Steelers saftey put a major hit on him.Olsen is on my bench and Keller is starting until I see Olsen do something

I think Olsen is going to rebound somewhat. He's got obvious talent and moving forward I don't see him being held down each week.

I agree. Same can be said about the threads concerning Matt Forte. The Bears brought in a gunslinger to a team that relies on the run a lot. There's going to be a transition period for the team and Cutler until they can come up with a balance for the both of them. Once that balance is determined I think Olsen, Forte, Cutler, and the WR's will be more than worthy of starting. I haven't been able to watch both Bears games but it doesn't appear Cutler has a clear-cut favorite target, and maybe he won't. So the WRs may all benefit on random weeks or perhaps one will consistently dominate. I think that is still to be seen. However, I feel the first two weeks aren't to be weighed heavily since it's a new QB coming into town...give him time and the balance, and production for all, will come.

 

[Firekaps]

Homer here. Not sure what you people are watching but Olsen has been very dissapointing. He has had several drops and still has yet to break a tackle in his NFL career. Wacthing Dallas Clark last night should show anyone that Olsen is nowhere near as fast or cagey as that guy. He gets no separation, either.Meanwhile, Kellen Davis was impressive. He could become a red zone target for Cutler, which would eat even more into Olsen's stats.Temper expectations.

Olsen would embarass Dallas Clark in a 40 yd sprint. Olsen is one of the fastest TE's in the NFL.

Maybe without pads on in a combine like setting, but in games Olsen shows no open field speed at all. Olsen's career long is 52 yards, and it's his only 50+ yard catch in over 100 receptions. He also has one 31 yard catch and one 29 yard catch. Those are his 3 CAREER receptions over 29 yards. Clark has 3 at 40+yards in two games THIS YEAR.Just saying.

 

[kutta]

Homer here. Not sure what you people are watching but Olsen has been very dissapointing. He has had several drops and still has yet to break a tackle in his NFL career. Wacthing Dallas Clark last night should show anyone that Olsen is nowhere near as fast or cagey as that guy. He gets no separation, either.

Meanwhile, Kellen Davis was impressive. He could become a red zone target for Cutler, which would eat even more into Olsen's stats.

Temper expectations.

Olsen would embarass Dallas Clark in a 40 yd sprint. Olsen is one of the fastest TE's in the NFL.

link - Dallas Clark

Clark is 6-3, and 252 pounds. He is deceptively fast, a smooth, long-striding glider with sub-4.5 second speed in the 40-yard dash. He is faster than most linebackers, bigger and stronger than safeties and cornerbacks.

link - Greg Olsen

Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears Tight End Scouting Report

Olsen, 24, is a pass catching tight end.

The 6-5, 255 pound athlete is a precise route runner and his 4.5 40-yard dash time is remarkable for a man of his size.

Nothing official here, but it looks pretty close to me.

 

[Devil in the Detail]

Has Olsen slipped into the Z Miller/Keller/Celek tier, or do people still see him as a cut above that going forward?

I'd rather have all three of those than Olsen.

 

[Chigurh]

My one and only bold prediction of the year:Greg Olsen is about to become the #1 fantasy TE in the league and it won't even be close.90 catches, 1100 yards, 11 TDs.

kerplunk

Ummm. Yeah. Sorry about that.

 

[Jayrod]

Has Olsen slipped into the Z Miller/Keller/Celek tier, or do people still see him as a cut above that going forward?

I'd rather have all three of those than Olsen.

I think Olsen will finish above Miller, but behind Keller and Celek. They will all be startable, just not top 5 (except maybe Keller).

 

[TommyGilmore]

Homer here. Not sure what you people are watching but Olsen has been very dissapointing. He has had several drops and still has yet to break a tackle in his NFL career. Wacthing Dallas Clark last night should show anyone that Olsen is nowhere near as fast or cagey as that guy. He gets no separation, either.

Meanwhile, Kellen Davis was impressive. He could become a red zone target for Cutler, which would eat even more into Olsen's stats.

Temper expectations.

Olsen would embarass Dallas Clark in a 40 yd sprint. Olsen is one of the fastest TE's in the NFL.

link - Dallas Clark

Clark is 6-3, and 252 pounds. He is deceptively fast, a smooth, long-striding glider with sub-4.5 second speed in the 40-yard dash. He is faster than most linebackers, bigger and stronger than safeties and cornerbacks.

link - Greg Olsen

Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears Tight End Scouting Report

Olsen, 24, is a pass catching tight end.

The 6-5, 255 pound athlete is a precise route runner and his 4.5 40-yard dash time is remarkable for a man of his size.

Nothing official here, but it looks pretty close to me.

ESPN says Clark ran a 4.55 40; This scouting site says it was 4.65. The same scouting site says Olsen ran a 4.51 40. This page claims that Olsen ran a 4.47 40.