Player Spotlight: Javon Walker (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Javon Walker, WR, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Javon Walker Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[SSOG]

Javon Walker was a very interesting WR last season. He was coming off of an injury that had cost him all of 2005, and he was also changing teams, which historically has supressed WR numbers (Owens and Coles notwithstanding). There were a lot of reasons to not like Walker's chances... but there were also a lot of reasons to like him- notably, his mega-super-uberstudly performance in 2004. As TCs went along, we kept hearing little reports here and there about how Javon Walker looked like an absolute stud, and looked like the injury wasn't affecting him... but that they were still wearing shorts. There were also reports about how he might have dyslexia and that learning the offense would be trouble. In short, nobody really had any idea what to expect. In last year's spotlight, the general consensus was that he'd get just a hair over 1000 yards and 7-8 TDs... and that's pretty much exactly what he did- 1084 yards and 8 TDs. Yet despite that, Javon Walker had an INCREDIBLE season.

What made his season so incredible last year? Well, the first and most obvious was the fact that he had an additional 123 yards and 1 TD rushing (a whopping 13.7 yards per carry). The second thing that made his season so fantastic was his ypc- he might have gotten just as many yards as everyone predicted, but he did it on about a dozen fewer catches than was anticipated, giving him a sterling 15.7 yards per reception. The third thing that made his season so phenominal was that he accomplished it despite the complete and utter collapse of Denver's passing game. Denver as a team failed to pass for 3,000 yards, but Walker still came up with over a third of the yardage Denver DID have. He was, quite simply, a weapon- one of the few on all of Denver's roster last year.

Fast forward to this year, and Walker's outlook it looking far rosier. The knee injury that was such a concern last year is no longer an issue this year. The concern that 2004 was a 1-year aberration has been put to rest by Walker's amazing season last year. Denver's coaches have said repeatedly that they're going to more of a vertical passing game (and personnel acquisitions, such as Patrick Ramsey, back this up), and Walker is the only WR on the roster capable of taking advantage of that shift, so the offense this year is almost certainly going to feature Walker as its focal point. Likewise, with the maturation of Cutler, Denver's passing yardage is likely to increase- and if Denver's pie gets bigger, Walker's piece is going to, as well.

This isn't to imply that there are no negatives with Walker. Last year Rod Smith was playing with a DRAMATIC injury and he should be improved this season. Last year, Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler were rookies learning the ropes- they should both be better this season, as well. Last year, Daniel Graham was in Foxborough. The targets around Walker have all improved, which means he's going to have to fight a lot harder if he wants to get a 33% share of the passing numbers again. Still, even if his share of the pie goes down, he will be the focal point of the offense and the total pie will be large enough to more than offset this loss. Another concern is Cutler- Walker's numbers were better with Plummer at QB than they were with Cutler, although Cutler was a rookie just learning the ropes (and there were definitely plays that showed that Cutler was learning how to use his weapon to best advantage). Also, all of Walker's rushing attempts have demonstrated a commitment on the part of the coaching staff to GETTING THE BALL IN WALKER'S HANDS. The coaching staff realizes he's their #1 weapon, and there's no way he languishes unused for any length of time. While negatives exist, I do not think any are alarming or even cause for more than cursory concern.

The common saying around here is that production = talent + opportunity. Javon Walker has demonstrated talent, going back to his massive season in 2004 as well as his very impressive year last year. Denver has demonstrated an opportunity, going back to Smith's production as the #1 WR and including the offense's focus on Walker last season, and the redoubling of that focus this season. The end result should be production the likes of which other WRs will be hard-pressed to match. Walker is an elite option at WR. He may not finish #1, but I think he's got a great chance at cracking the top 5.

85 touches, 1275 yards, 10 TDs (including rushing totals).

 

[bcr8f]

Walker is an elite option at WR. He may not finish #1, but I think he's got a great chance at cracking the top 5.85 touches, 1275 yards, 10 TDs (including rushing totals).

In 2004 he was #3 in yards, 1382 and 12 TD's.

 

[H.K.]

Walker saw his FF PPG plummet by 33% with Cutler at QB in PPR formats.

With Plummer he averaged 4.25 receptions 71.2 yards receiving 0.5 TD per game (along with 120 yard rush & 1 TD)

But with Cutler at QB he dropped to 3.6 receptions 46 yards receiving and 0.4 TD catches per game (only 3 yards rushing)

Plummer made him a top 10 FF WR, Cutler made him a borderline WR3. Denver will have many weapons at their disposal next year (Henry, Smith, Marshall, Graham, Scheffler, et al), and Cutler has already shown he likes all his options.

Javon will be the single biggest disappointment for FFers in 2007:

54 recepts 711 yards 4 TD's

 

[Thom Yorke]

Walker saw his FF PPG plummet by 33% with Cutler at QB in PPR formats.With Plummer he averaged 4.25 receptions 71.2 yards receiving 0.5 TD per game (along with 120 yard rush & 1 TD)But with Cutler at QB he dropped to 3.6 receptions 46 yards receiving and 0.4 TD catches per game (only 3 yards rushing)Plummer made him a top 10 FF WR, Cutler made him a borderline WR3. Denver will have many weapons at their disposal next year (Henry, Smith, Marshall, Graham, Scheffler, et al), and Cutler has already shown he likes all his options.Javon will be the single biggest disappointment for FFers in 2007:54 recepts 711 yards 4 TD's

Don't agree, but like the bold projection, along with some stats to back it up.

 

[SSOG]

Walker saw his FF PPG plummet by 33% with Cutler at QB in PPR formats.

With Plummer he averaged 4.25 receptions 71.2 yards receiving 0.5 TD per game (along with 120 yard rush & 1 TD)

But with Cutler at QB he dropped to 3.6 receptions 46 yards receiving and 0.4 TD catches per game (only 3 yards rushing)

Plummer made him a top 10 FF WR, Cutler made him a borderline WR3. Denver will have many weapons at their disposal next year (Henry, Smith, Marshall, Graham, Scheffler, et al), and Cutler has already shown he likes all his options.

Javon will be the single biggest disappointment for FFers in 2007:

54 recepts 711 yards 4 TD's

Beginning the schtick a little bit early this season, aren't you H.K.?If you pro-rate Walker's numbers with Cutler at the helm over a full season you're looking at 58/736/6.4. So, in other words, you're not just expecting Walker to do as poorly with Cutler as he did last year, you're actually expecting him to do worse in all three major receiving categories, despite Cutler being a year more experienced. Say whaaaaaaat? There's this little thing called a "learning curve". You might have heard of it- it's generally considered to be pretty steep for QBs. I could cite all sorts of statistics that show an incredibly strong history of improvement among QBs between their first and second season. Please, please, explain to me why you seem to think that Jay Cutler is actually going to REGRESS this year.

Also, while you're at it, another question for you. Denver has made it clear that the deep pass (and, more specifically, Javon Walker) is going to be the focal point of their offense this year. They've also demonstrated it with their free-agent acquisitions. When acquiring a backup QB, the #1 trait they looked for was arm strength- this is the action of a team that is going to be emphasizing the deep pass and doesn't want to have to scale back the playbook if the starter gets hurt. So not only are you expecting Cutler to regress, you're also expecting 700 yards receiving out of the FOCAL POINT OF THE OFFENSE.

But wait, it doesn't stop there. The 2995 yards passing Denver posted last year was the lowest total of the Mike Shanahan tenure. I think it's reasonable to say that that's the sort of floor you're looking at for Denver's passing game. If Denver's passing game rebounds up to a modest 3300 yards (a very reasonable total), and if Javon Walker got 711 yards as you predict, that would mean Denver's WR1 accounted for 21.5% of Denver's passing yardage. Only once in the entire Mike Shanahan era has Denver's leading receiver accounted for less than 25% of Denver's passing yardage (2002, Rod Smith had 1027 of 4139 yards, or 24.8%), and most seasons the leading receiver has 30+%... so either you're predicting that Shanahan's passing offense is going to set a new record for least passing yards this year (2844 yards, over 150 yards worse than the previous worst performance in Shanahan's 12 years), or else you're predicting that Shanahan's passing offense is going to follow a radically different distribution pattern than in the past, or you're predicting that Javon Walker isn't going to be Denver's leading receiver next year. Which is it?

I feel like you tossed out a ludicrously low number for shock factor, because you're H.K. and that's what you do- make ludicrous predictions for shock value. Cursory research reveals that those numbers would fly in the face of 12 years of football history. When faced with a question of which I think is more likely correct- 12 strong, consistant years of football history, or H.K.'s gut feeling- I'm going to side with the history every time (and twice on Sundays).

 

[H.K.]

Javon Walker had an INCREDIBLE season.

What made his season so incredible last year? Well, the first and most obvious was the fact that he had an additional 123 yards and 1 TD rushing (a whopping 13.7 yards per carry). The second thing that made his season so fantastic was his ypc- he might have gotten just as many yards as everyone predicted, but he did it on about a dozen fewer catches than was anticipated, giving him a sterling 15.7 yards per reception.

.....

This isn't to imply that there are no negatives with Walker. Last year Rod Smith was playing with a DRAMATIC injury and he should be improved this season. Last year, Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler were rookies learning the ropes- they should both be better this season, as well. Last year, Daniel Graham was in Foxborough. The targets around Walker have all improved, which means he's going to have to fight a lot harder if he wants to get a 33% share of the passing numbers again.

....

SSOG,You addressed Walker's issues perfectly in your post:

1) Walker's season in '06 was amazing, expecting improvement or even a repeat is not reasonable. Especially when considering my second point. Think about it: When Jamal Lewis ran for 2000 yards, nobody predicted he would run for 2100 the following year.

Walker maximized every touch he had last year, problem is, that level of production isn't sustainable and his touches will continue to drop. The numbers don't lie:

Targets

- Walker averaged over 8 targets a game with Plummer (high of 13).

- With Cutler at QB, targets were 7 per game, and the most targets Walker ever got was 8.

Production

- With Plummer YPC = 16.7

- With Cutler YPC = 12.7

2) Here is the Denver Receiver depth chart currently with Walker:

Rod Smith - healthy and ready to return to the elite

Brandon Marshall - EEeeeee!!!! Everyone knows how good he is

Brandon Stokley - Will be another big contributor and take a chunk out of the receiving pie.

David Kircus, Quincy Morgan, David Terrell - All have talent, someone in this group will make plays

Domenik Hixon (KR)

TE: Daniel Graham, Tony Scheffler, Stephen Alexander - All of these guys can play, and Cutler has vapor lock on his TE's when he drops back.

I did not say the Denver passing game will suffer a huge drop off, actually I think Cutler will improve from last year and he will post better passing numbers. The problem is that Cutler didn't throw to Walker last season when he was their best option, and now the Broncos have added many more targets than they had in 2006. I don't expect Walker to average more than 6 targets a week in 2007 as the downward trend continues for him with Jay at the helm.

I'll let the thread continue, but Walker's numbers with Cutler speak for themselves.

 

[lord_helmet]

H.K on Javon Walker = YAWN

 

[videoguy505]

H.K = YAWN

Fixed.You must be new.

 

[JAA]

keep the stats flowin

 

[Chunky Soup]

Javon Walker had an INCREDIBLE season.

What made his season so incredible last year? Well, the first and most obvious was the fact that he had an additional 123 yards and 1 TD rushing (a whopping 13.7 yards per carry). The second thing that made his season so fantastic was his ypc- he might have gotten just as many yards as everyone predicted, but he did it on about a dozen fewer catches than was anticipated, giving him a sterling 15.7 yards per reception.

.....

This isn't to imply that there are no negatives with Walker. Last year Rod Smith was playing with a DRAMATIC injury and he should be improved this season. Last year, Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler were rookies learning the ropes- they should both be better this season, as well. Last year, Daniel Graham was in Foxborough. The targets around Walker have all improved, which means he's going to have to fight a lot harder if he wants to get a 33% share of the passing numbers again.

....

SSOG,You addressed Walker's issues perfectly in your post:

1) Walker's season in '06 was amazing, expecting improvement or even a repeat is not reasonable. Especially when considering my second point. Think about it: When Jamal Lewis ran for 2000 yards, nobody predicted he would run for 2100 the following year.

Walker maximized every touch he had last year, problem is, that level of production isn't sustainable and his touches will continue to drop. The numbers don't lie:

Targets

- Walker averaged over 8 targets a game with Plummer (high of 13).

- With Cutler at QB, targets were 7 per game, and the most targets Walker ever got was 8.

Production

- With Plummer YPC = 16.7

- With Cutler YPC = 12.7

2) Here is the Denver Receiver depth chart currently with Walker:

Rod Smith - healthy and ready to return to the elite

Brandon Marshall - EEeeeee!!!! Everyone knows how good he is

Brandon Stokley - Will be another big contributor and take a chunk out of the receiving pie.

David Kircus, Quincy Morgan, David Terrell - All have talent, someone in this group will make plays

Domenik Hixon (KR)

TE: Daniel Graham, Tony Scheffler, Stephen Alexander - All of these guys can play, and Cutler has vapor lock on his TE's when he drops back.

I did not say the Denver passing game will suffer a huge drop off, actually I think Cutler will improve from last year and he will post better passing numbers. The problem is that Cutler didn't throw to Walker last season when he was their best option, and now the Broncos have added many more targets than they had in 2006. I don't expect Walker to average more than 6 targets a week in 2007 as the downward trend continues for him with Jay at the helm.

I'll let the thread continue, but Walker's numbers with Cutler speak for themselves.

About the 8 targets vs 7 targets shtick; Cutler was a rookie. You're going to tell me that in his 5 games, because he targeted Walker 1 pass less (which are not official stats anyway), he will not be that involved this year? How about we take the first 5 games with Plummer at the helm. Walker's targets were 7,7,6,8,6. Targets wtih Cutler at the helm in his 5 games were 7,8,6,7,7. Looking at that group of 5, they're almost even and in fact Cutler gave Walker more targets.You forgot in your post how all respectable NFL coaches get the ball to their best player. Shanahan is one of those. Look at DEN with Rod Smith and what a great amount and proportion of yards he got. Javon Walker could be a better talent than Smith ever was. We're talking a first round talent with a 1382/12 season under his belt. Walker has incredible potential to make a huge play, get in the endzone and for that the ball will be fed into him.

Some other points:

--DEN offense was subpar last year. Some was due to poor QBing from Plummer and some was due to poor RB/fumbles. The offense will be able to sustain many more drives with the addition of Henry and in turn will add more fantasy points for the WR.

--Walker tore his right ACL on 9/11/2005. Coming back and playing his first game in less than 1 year in incredibly impressive. Putting up 69/1084/8 in your first year, no matter what the conditions are, is unbelievable.

--What about the fact that it was a rookie throwing to him for 5 games. Here are two previous rookie QBs in their first year and second year:

NAME YEAR YARDS TD/INT

Alex Smith 2005: 875 1/11

Alex Amith 2006: 2890 16/16

Eli Manning 2004: 1043 6/9

Eli Manning 2005: 3762 24/17

Cutler was highly touted and was a great prospect, possibly better than the two mentioned above. I think we can expect great improvement. The fact that Shanny coveted him so much speaks volumes of what type of player they expect him to be; Cutler only showed that Shanny made a great move for him with his limited action.

--This was Walker's first year on the team.

--He still had 1084/1 and ended up top 10 non-PPR.

Things can't go waay up?? IMO, we can only expect better things from Cutler, the DEN offense, and most importantly, Javon Walker.

Let's go with 77/1225/9

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Brandon Marshall - EEeeeee!!!! Everyone knows how good he is

This is where I point out that Walker had 18/220/2 on 35 targets and Marshall had 14/223/1 on 26 targets with Cutler - and that's with Rod Smith getting 25 targets over that span.

 

[shadyridr]

This guy is a stud, especially with an arm like Cutler throwing to him.

85 rec, 1300 yds, 9 tds, 50 rush, 1 td

 

[Banger]

Hey if we're going to use 4 game sample size of things to come, I'm buying Scheffler and his 800+ yards and 16 tds. Last year the Broncos' totally changed over their offense, new RB's (again), new QB, new TE, the staple Rod Smith shuffled out for Marshall, O-line injuries, etc. It was a HUGE transition year for the entire offense and considering the amount of shuffling it's remarkable that Cutler performed as well as he did.

Javon Walker is the best offensive player on the Bronco's and I'll be targeting him in each draft. He's got big play ability playing alongside one of the biggest arms in the game. Walkers currently ranked 10th and last year he finished 9th with Plummer playing HORRIBLY and a green rookie gunslinger. I don't think anyone thinks the Bronco's will be worse this year so why should Javon perform worse? He's screaming value to me and legitimately can be a top 2-3 wr. Remember it was only a couple years ago when he finished #2.

85-1360-11

 

[I'm Rick James]

Javon Walker -- 90 rec. 1200 yards 8 Td's

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

73 rec, 1128 yards, 10 TDs / 9 rushes, 51 yards, 0 TDs

 

[Cerwin]

I think one of the reasons why Cutler seemed to favor Marshall is because they had more practice together. Cutler wasn't running with the first team all season with Walker. Instead, Cutler was practicing with the second team with guys like Scheffler and Marshall. This year Cutler is 'the guy" and will be practicing with the best weapons the Broncos have, which Walker is at the top of the list. I am predicting a great year for Walker.

83 rec./ 1250 yards/ 12 TDs

15 rush/100 yards/ 1 TD

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

73 rec, 1128 yards, 10 TDs / 9 rushes, 51 yards, 0 TDs

I must be way offDenver wants to run the ball and with a solid defense and a solid scheme, they will. It seems like in the recent past, Qb's in Denver are just there to manage the game more than go out and win it. With Cutler in his 2nd year.......I expect the same and this will impact Walker's over all numbers. Yes, he'll have some big plays, some bombs where the defenders seem to trip over themselves and he catches that 55 yard TD but there will also be the 3 catches for 55 yards and zero TD games where the Broncos win 14-6 with a rushing TD and a passing TD to the 3rd string Tight End.61 receptions for 880 yards and 7 td's

 

[Banger]

73 rec, 1128 yards, 10 TDs / 9 rushes, 51 yards, 0 TDs

I must be way offDenver wants to run the ball and with a solid defense and a solid scheme, they will. It seems like in the recent past, Qb's in Denver are just there to manage the game more than go out and win it. With Cutler in his 2nd year.......I expect the same and this will impact Walker's over all numbers. Yes, he'll have some big plays, some bombs where the defenders seem to trip over themselves and he catches that 55 yard TD but there will also be the 3 catches for 55 yards and zero TD games where the Broncos win 14-6 with a rushing TD and a passing TD to the 3rd string Tight End.61 receptions for 880 yards and 7 td's

I think you are off base. Two years ago Denver threw for 4000 yards 27-20 (#6 passing offense) this was while their rushing attack was #4. This is what Denver wants to get back to and that's why the reigns were handed over to a guy that could really pass the ball. In recent history they haven't had anyone that has near the talent as Cutler (Plummer, Beurlein, Kanell, Greise).

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Im mixed about JW.

He does seem to be a topic that is very volatile. Dont know if Ive ever seen so much loyalty to a WR before.

Walker (like Denver as a team) could be very good or below average. Lots of changes in mile high.

82 receptions

1120 yards

8 TDs

6 rush

24 yards

Keeping about the same status as he finished with last year.

Good for WR#12. Bottom of tier 2 or top of tier 3.

 

[SSOG]

Javon Walker had an INCREDIBLE season.

What made his season so incredible last year? Well, the first and most obvious was the fact that he had an additional 123 yards and 1 TD rushing (a whopping 13.7 yards per carry). The second thing that made his season so fantastic was his ypc- he might have gotten just as many yards as everyone predicted, but he did it on about a dozen fewer catches than was anticipated, giving him a sterling 15.7 yards per reception.

.....

This isn't to imply that there are no negatives with Walker. Last year Rod Smith was playing with a DRAMATIC injury and he should be improved this season. Last year, Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler were rookies learning the ropes- they should both be better this season, as well. Last year, Daniel Graham was in Foxborough. The targets around Walker have all improved, which means he's going to have to fight a lot harder if he wants to get a 33% share of the passing numbers again.

....

SSOG,You addressed Walker's issues perfectly in your post:

1) Walker's season in '06 was amazing, expecting improvement or even a repeat is not reasonable. Especially when considering my second point. Think about it: When Jamal Lewis ran for 2000 yards, nobody predicted he would run for 2100 the following year.

Walker maximized every touch he had last year, problem is, that level of production isn't sustainable and his touches will continue to drop. The numbers don't lie:

Targets

- Walker averaged over 8 targets a game with Plummer (high of 13).

- With Cutler at QB, targets were 7 per game, and the most targets Walker ever got was 8.

Production

- With Plummer YPC = 16.7

- With Cutler YPC = 12.7

2) Here is the Denver Receiver depth chart currently with Walker:

Rod Smith - healthy and ready to return to the elite

Brandon Marshall - EEeeeee!!!! Everyone knows how good he is

Brandon Stokley - Will be another big contributor and take a chunk out of the receiving pie.

David Kircus, Quincy Morgan, David Terrell - All have talent, someone in this group will make plays

Domenik Hixon (KR)

TE: Daniel Graham, Tony Scheffler, Stephen Alexander - All of these guys can play, and Cutler has vapor lock on his TE's when he drops back.

I did not say the Denver passing game will suffer a huge drop off, actually I think Cutler will improve from last year and he will post better passing numbers. The problem is that Cutler didn't throw to Walker last season when he was their best option, and now the Broncos have added many more targets than they had in 2006. I don't expect Walker to average more than 6 targets a week in 2007 as the downward trend continues for him with Jay at the helm.

I'll let the thread continue, but Walker's numbers with Cutler speak for themselves.

I don't have a single problem if someone wants to predict a down year for Javon Walker. That's fine and dandy- obviously opinions on a player are going to different. What bugged me is that your prediction was LUDICROUSLY low, sort of like when Joe T famously said that he'd set the over/under on Lee Evans at 50/658/4 last season, and if betting, he'd take the under. Stuff like that might cause a nice stir, but it's sensationalism, plain and simple. A talented #1 target on any team at all is going to post better numbers than the ones you listed, so you're basically saying that Javon Walker isn't going to be the #1 on his own team next year. I suppose you're entitled to your opinion, but generally, I think when a coaching staff says that a player is going to be the FOCAL POINT OF THE OFFENSE (and then goes out of the way to support that claim), then that player is generally considered the "#1 option".As for your second point... I think that's a little silly, too. First off, I'll be somewhat surprised if both Rod Smith *AND* Brandon Stokley make the team- I always felt that Stokley was insurance in case Smith was still injured. Denver's not going to carry more than 6 WRs (they never have), and a lot of those WRs will have to play special teams (something Smith and Stokley aren't that involved in). Looking at the depth chart, Walker and Marshall are the likely starters (and exempt from ST duties), while Hixon is likely to make the roster as a returner. If the other WRs are Smith + Stokley, then Denver has 6 WRs and only two play special teams- I just don't see that happening. Stokley won't be a big contributer, no matter what, because he never is- outside of Manning's dream season, he has one year with 543 yards receiving, and after that his high is 357 yards. And even if Denver has 5 great WRs, they aren't going to use them, because Denver historically almost never uses their #4 or #5 guy- the only WRs competing for targets with Walker are going to be Marshall (who is a sophomore) and Smith/Stokley (who are old and injury-riddled). To suggest that either is going to dramatically cut into the targets of one of the true stud WRs in the league is a little bit silly, in my opinion.

73 rec, 1128 yards, 10 TDs / 9 rushes, 51 yards, 0 TDs

I must be way off

Denver wants to run the ball and with a solid defense and a solid scheme, they will. It seems like in the recent past, Qb's in Denver are just there to manage the game more than go out and win it. With Cutler in his 2nd year.......I expect the same and this will impact Walker's over all numbers. Yes, he'll have some big plays, some bombs where the defenders seem to trip over themselves and he catches that 55 yard TD but there will also be the 3 catches for 55 yards and zero TD games where the Broncos win 14-6 with a rushing TD and a passing TD to the 3rd string Tight End.

61 receptions for 880 yards and 7 td's

You're obviously not familiar with Denver's offensive history. Their passing game is built off of the running game- the better the running game is, the better their passing game becomes, and most aberrations in that trend are the result of injuries (for instance, in 2003 Denver had a great running game and a horrible passing game, mostly because they played Beurlein and Kanell for a huge chunk of time).Denver has ranked in the top 5 in rushing yards 9 times in Shanny's tenure. During those seasons the passing game has finished ranked 13th, 6th, 2nd, 23rd (Danny Kanell's year), 20th, 7th, 10th, 6th, and 7th (average: 10.4). Denver has finished outside the top 5 in rushing yards 3 times in Shanny's tenure. During those seasons, the passing game has finished ranked 15th, 24th, and 27th (average: 22nd). Denver has cracked 4,000 yards passing 4 times under Shanahan, and all four seasons featured a top-5 rushing attack. Any improvements in Denver's running game should translate into IMPROVEMENTS in Walker's numbers, rather than signaling a regression.

 

[Sleeper 43]

Anyone concerned about potential shell-shock from the shooting incident (a team-mate dying in your arms) effecting Javon's play? I cant help but think he might have been getting his head right instead of maybe doing a off-season program?

Maybe it helps his play.... but I just haven't heard anyone consider such.

 

[I'm Rick James]

Anyone concerned about potential shell-shock from the shooting incident (a team-mate dying in your arms) effecting Javon's play? I cant help but think he might have been getting his head right instead of maybe doing a off-season program?Maybe it helps his play.... but I just haven't heard anyone consider such.

It's tough to say how someone will be affected by such a traumatic experience. Unless, we hear something from camp, teammates, or an insider, I wouldn't skew his numbers one way or another.I also agree that a better run game helps the passing game. I think Javon's a stud, and will put up numbers:85 receptions, 1300 yards, 11 TD's.

 

[BassNBrew]

Walker saw his FF PPG plummet by 33% with Cutler at QB in PPR formats.With Plummer he averaged 4.25 receptions 71.2 yards receiving 0.5 TD per game (along with 120 yard rush & 1 TD)But with Cutler at QB he dropped to 3.6 receptions 46 yards receiving and 0.4 TD catches per game (only 3 yards rushing)Plummer made him a top 10 FF WR, Cutler made him a borderline WR3. Denver will have many weapons at their disposal next year (Henry, Smith, Marshall, Graham, Scheffler, et al), and Cutler has already shown he likes all his options.Javon will be the single biggest disappointment for FFers in 2007:54 recepts 711 yards 4 TD's

Walker was one of the BnB early 2007 value plays. Still very bullish on him. Projections...Step 1: 2x anything HK posts - 108 recepts, 1422 yds, 8 TDStep 2: Subtract the number of times HK's momma dropped him on his head - 98 recptStep 3: Subtract HK's adult dog weight from the yardage - 1395 ydsStep 4: Subtract Cboy titles from the TDs - 8 TD98-1395-8

 

[BigSteelThrill]

98-1395-8

Jokin'? Or are you really saying he will have 98 catches?

 

[BassNBrew]

98-1395-8

Jokin'? Or are you really saying he will have 98 catches?

That's the number I'm going with for the moment. 89-1382-12 were his year 3 stats in Green Bay. At this stage I'm working with pure numbers (talent and opportunity) and haven't factored down for weather or injury potential. Right now my board at WR looks like...TOSmithWayneHoushHoltWalker

 

[Cerwin]

98-1395-8

Jokin'? Or are you really saying he will have 98 catches?

That's the number I'm going with for the moment. 89-1382-12 were his year 3 stats in Green Bay. At this stage I'm working with pure numbers (talent and opportunity) and haven't factored down for weather or injury potential. Right now my board at WR looks like...TOSmithWayneHoushHoltWalker

Housh but no CJ?!?!

 

[BassNBrew]

Javon Walker, ADP WR14 – This could be the biggest bargain of the year. He finished 2006 as WR9 people…after changing teams…coming off a major knee injury…with a rookie QB for half the year. He broke every fantasy football rule in the book. Last year’s production was his floor for this year. Walker is candidate for a top five WR finish.

 

[BassNBrew]

98-1395-8

Jokin'? Or are you really saying he will have 98 catches?

That's the number I'm going with for the moment. 89-1382-12 were his year 3 stats in Green Bay. At this stage I'm working with pure numbers (talent and opportunity) and haven't factored down for weather or injury potential. Right now my board at WR looks like...TOSmithWayneHoushHoltWalker

Housh but no CJ?!?!

I'll be glad to discuss it elsewhere in detail, but generally I rank the more talented WR higher.

 

[SSOG]

Some fun numbers stolen from mbeuhner in the Anquan Boldin vs. Larry Fitzgerald thread.

Since Fitzgerald joined the league, percentage of touchdown conversions to targets in the red zone (WRs with 25+ targets 2004-06)

Player Targets TD Percentage

Larry Fitzgerald 39 15 0.384615385

Marcus Robinson 30 11 0.366666667

Javon Walker 28 10 0.357142857

Terrell Owens 48 17 0.354166667

Marvin Harrison 69 24 0.347826087

Deion Branch 26 9 0.346153846

Joey Galloway 36 12 0.333333333

Roy Williams 40 13 0.325

Darrell Jackson 38 12 0.315789474

Numbers from between the 6 yard line and the 20 yard line

Player Year Targets Tds Percentage

Larry Fitzgerald 2004--2006 28 9 0.321428571

Javon Walker 2004--2006 25 8 0.32

Deion Branch 2004--2006 25 8 0.32

Terrell Owens 2004--2006 35 11 0.314285714

Hines Ward 2004--2006 47 14 0.29787234

Muhsin Muhammad 2004--2006 48 14 0.291666667

Roy Williams 2004--2006 32 9 0.28125

Keenan McCardell 2004--2006 25 7 0.28

Marvin Harrison 2004--2006 50 13 0.26

Donte Stallworth 2004--2006 27 7 0.259259259

Something to consider before projecting 4 TDs for Javon Walker.

 

[NorrisB]

98-1395-8

Jokin'? Or are you really saying he will have 98 catches?

That's the number I'm going with for the moment. 89-1382-12 were his year 3 stats in Green Bay. At this stage I'm working with pure numbers (talent and opportunity) and haven't factored down for weather or injury potential. Right now my board at WR looks like...TOSmithWayneHoushHoltWalker

Housh but no CJ?!?!

I'll be glad to discuss it elsewhere in detail, but generally I rank the more talented WR higher.

 

[BassNBrew]

98-1395-8

Jokin'? Or are you really saying he will have 98 catches?

That's the number I'm going with for the moment. 89-1382-12 were his year 3 stats in Green Bay. At this stage I'm working with pure numbers (talent and opportunity) and haven't factored down for weather or injury potential. Right now my board at WR looks like...TO

Smith

Wayne

Housh

Holt

Walker

Housh but no CJ?!?!

I'll be glad to discuss it elsewhere in detail, but generally I rank the more talented WR higher.

With a cracked back to boot.

 

[SSOG]

Sorry to bump a thread that seems to have run its course, but the more research I do, the more impressed I become with Javon Walker's season last year.

Here's a list of points-per-target from last season for every WR with 100+ targets. Generally, this list will highlight which WRs were efficient at converting opportunities into points.

1.41 - Marvin Harrison

1.40 - Javon Walker

1.39 - Darrell Jackson

1.35 - Reggie Wayne

1.32 - Marques Colston

1.31 - Plaxico Burress

1.30 - Terrell Owens

1.29 - Lee Evans

1.29 - Terry Glenn

1.26 - Steve Smith

1.22 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh

1.22 - Santana Moss

1.21 - Larry Fitzgerald

1.18 - Chad Johnson

1.16 - Eddie Kennison

1.13 - Roy Williams

1.13 - Bernard Berrian

1.08 - Hines Ward

1.08 - Jerricho Cotchery

1.06 - Mark Clayton

1.05 - Joey Galloway

1.04 - Donald Driver

1.02 - Braylon Edwards

1.01 - Isaac Bruce

1.00 - Torry Holt

1.00 - Reche Caldwell

0.99 - Deion Branch

0.99 - Muhsin Muhammad

0.99 - Mike Furrey

0.98 - Laveranues Coles

0.97 - Anquan Boldin

0.89 - Andre Johnson

0.86 - Keyshawn Johnson

0.77 - Derrick Mason

0.77 - Greg Jennings

0.74 - Wes Welker

0.66 - Chris Chambers ( )

That is an INCREDIBLY impressive feat that Walker accomplished, especially when you consider the anemic nature of Denver's offense. Despite the fact that the offense as a whole produced so little per pass, Javon Walker was the second most productive WR in the entire NFL on a per-target basis- in fact, when you consider that Harrison had Peyton throwing all of those passes, I would say that Walker was without question the most impressive WR in the entire league when it came to making the most out of his targets. He was the 21st most targeted WR in the entire NFL (behind such luminaries as Jerricho Cotchery and Keyshawn Johnson, and more than 20 targets behind Mike Furrey), so there is a TON of room for Walker to drastically improve on his 2006 numbers. And before anyone jumps in and says that those numbers are inflated by Walker's totals with Plummer at the helm, and that he cannot replicate that success with Jay Cutler... over the last 3 weeks of the season, after he'd had some time to develop a rapport with Cutler, Walker averaged 1.42 points per target. Granted, it's an awfully small sample size, but it shows that the precedent is there for Walker to produce with Cutler at the helm.

Oh, and before anyone begins to say that last year was a 1-year aberration... in 2004, do you know how many points Javon Walker scored per target? 1.52!!! That ranked him as fourth in the league behind Wayne (1.70- remember, this was during Manning's mind-blowing season), Owens (1.62- the year he got 14 TDs in 14 games), and Holt (1.53), and ahead of Marvin Harrison (1.46) and Muhsin Muhammad (1.50). Talk about some elite company.

 

[bcr8f]

H.K on on any Packer WR or ex Packer WR = YAWN

Fixed.New team, recovering from knee surgery, new QB. Anyone thinking numbers won't progress aren't reasonable.

 

[bcr8f]

Anyone concerned about potential shell-shock from the shooting incident (a team-mate dying in your arms) effecting Javon's play? I cant help but think he might have been getting his head right instead of maybe doing a off-season program?Maybe it helps his play.... but I just haven't heard anyone consider such.

It's tough to say how someone will be affected by such a traumatic experience. Unless, we hear something from camp, teammates, or an insider, I wouldn't skew his numbers one way or another.I also agree that a better run game helps the passing game. I think Javon's a stud, and will put up numbers:85 receptions, 1300 yards, 11 TD's.

Walker-2004 89 1382 12 TD's.

 

[Tubalcane]

All these predictions hinge upon his emotional state . I believe that most people have taken that issue too lightly. His good friend was shot, and died in his arms. Let me repeat that. HIS GOOD FRIEND WAS SHOT AND DIED IN HIS ARMS. There is NO barometer to measure how this will affect Javon. This in my opinion is just and extra red flag to add to his risk factor (former knee injury, young QB). I believe his ADP will go up as actual drafts start to progress. I’m speculating that he will be drafted too early in most leagues to warrant his risk factor.

I’m going to err on the side of optimism because Javon will be coached in such a professional organization like the Broncos, and speculate that he has a fantastic year.

Javon gets

83 – 1250 – 13 TDs

I think his TD numbers will shoot up a lot this year. I think that a solid preseason and training camp between Javon and Cutler will be a spring board for a dynamic year for Javon. Because of his height and leaping ability I believe Shanahan will utilize him more in the red zone and at the goal line. I’m a huge Rod Smith fan but Rod isn’t that tall. In fact I can’t remember Denver having a scoring threat this tall and athletic outside of Eddy Mac.

Three things Javon has going for him:

1. Travis Henry is going to demand attention in this offense. That will invariably lead to more opportunities for Walker.

2. Schefflers’ broken foot and absence will help Javon. When Cutler came in last year it was clear that Scheffler was his favorite target or “safety valve”. Not having him there in training camp will force Cutler to look elsewhere. It will be Javon.

3. Javon will be lining up against the greatest CB in the NFL Champ Bailey in practice over and over again. That constant competition from the NFL’s best will help elevate Walkers game. He’ll have to adapt and learn quickly in practice.

I like his chances even better because Javon plays on a Mike Shanahan team. Shanny took undrafted Rod Smith and helped him be great. He done the same to a journeyman named Eddy Mac. He also coached the GOAT [Jerry Rice] as an offensive coordinator and won a great big ring.

The sky is the limit for Javon Walker

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Walker saw his FF PPG plummet by 33% with Cutler at QB in PPR formats.With Plummer he averaged 4.25 receptions 71.2 yards receiving 0.5 TD per game (along with 120 yard rush & 1 TD)But with Cutler at QB he dropped to 3.6 receptions 46 yards receiving and 0.4 TD catches per game (only 3 yards rushing)Plummer made him a top 10 FF WR, Cutler made him a borderline WR3. Denver will have many weapons at their disposal next year (Henry, Smith, Marshall, Graham, Scheffler, et al), and Cutler has already shown he likes all his options.Javon will be the single biggest disappointment for FFers in 2007:54 recepts 711 yards 4 TD's

Part of that is just because he had that one monster 200/3 game when Plummer was in there. On a week to week basis, the pre-Cutler and post-Cutler numbers are pretty similar.

 

[NorrisB]

Javon Walker had an INCREDIBLE season.

What made his season so incredible last year? Well, the first and most obvious was the fact that he had an additional 123 yards and 1 TD rushing (a whopping 13.7 yards per carry). The second thing that made his season so fantastic was his ypc- he might have gotten just as many yards as everyone predicted, but he did it on about a dozen fewer catches than was anticipated, giving him a sterling 15.7 yards per reception.

.....

This isn't to imply that there are no negatives with Walker. Last year Rod Smith was playing with a DRAMATIC injury and he should be improved this season. Last year, Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler were rookies learning the ropes- they should both be better this season, as well. Last year, Daniel Graham was in Foxborough. The targets around Walker have all improved, which means he's going to have to fight a lot harder if he wants to get a 33% share of the passing numbers again.

....

SSOG,You addressed Walker's issues perfectly in your post:

1) Walker's season in '06 was amazing, expecting improvement or even a repeat is not reasonable. Especially when considering my second point. Think about it: When Jamal Lewis ran for 2000 yards, nobody predicted he would run for 2100 the following year.

Walker maximized every touch he had last year, problem is, that level of production isn't sustainable and his touches will continue to drop. The numbers don't lie:

Targets

- Walker averaged over 8 targets a game with Plummer (high of 13).

- With Cutler at QB, targets were 7 per game, and the most targets Walker ever got was 8.

Production

- With Plummer YPC = 16.7

- With Cutler YPC = 12.7

2) Here is the Denver Receiver depth chart currently with Walker:

Rod Smith - healthy and ready to return to the elite

Brandon Marshall - EEeeeee!!!! Everyone knows how good he is

Brandon Stokley - Will be another big contributor and take a chunk out of the receiving pie.

David Kircus, Quincy Morgan, David Terrell - All have talent, someone in this group will make plays

Domenik Hixon (KR)

TE: Daniel Graham, Tony Scheffler, Stephen Alexander - All of these guys can play, and Cutler has vapor lock on his TE's when he drops back.

I did not say the Denver passing game will suffer a huge drop off, actually I think Cutler will improve from last year and he will post better passing numbers. The problem is that Cutler didn't throw to Walker last season when he was their best option, and now the Broncos have added many more targets than they had in 2006. I don't expect Walker to average more than 6 targets a week in 2007 as the downward trend continues for him with Jay at the helm.

I'll let the thread continue, but Walker's numbers with Cutler speak for themselves.

here comes bassnbrew for his yearly free subscription

 

[H.K.]

Walker saw his FF PPG plummet by 33% with Cutler at QB in PPR formats.With Plummer he averaged 4.25 receptions 71.2 yards receiving 0.5 TD per game (along with 120 yard rush & 1 TD)But with Cutler at QB he dropped to 3.6 receptions 46 yards receiving and 0.4 TD catches per game (only 3 yards rushing)Plummer made him a top 10 FF WR, Cutler made him a borderline WR3. Denver will have many weapons at their disposal next year (Henry, Smith, Marshall, Graham, Scheffler, et al), and Cutler has already shown he likes all his options.Javon will be the single biggest disappointment for FFers in 2007:54 recepts 711 yards 4 TD's

Part of that is just because he had that one monster 200/3 game when Plummer was in there. On a week to week basis, the pre-Cutler and post-Cutler numbers are pretty similar.

Do you really want to play the "take out his best game card"?OK then....remove Walker's best game for both QB's and here is what is left:With Plummer for 10 games:48 rush yards45 recepts720 yards 4 TDsWith Cutler for 4 games3 rush yards13 recepts 146 rec yards1 TDPlummer: Walker averaged 4.5 recepts per game for 72 yards and .4 TD with 4.8 rush yardsCutler: Walker averaged 3.25 recepts per game for 36.5 yards and 0.25 TD with .75 rush yards

 

[rzrback77]

I believe that I will most likely not be drafting Javon Walker in 2007. Denver historically spreads the ball well among all receivers, including the running backs. I think that Cutler will continue that trend, even increasing the distribution to Tight Ends and RBs in 07.

In the second half of 2006, Javon Walker averaged eight targets per game, four receptions per game, 66 yards, and 0.7 TDs. Not terrible, but not top ten either. A further glance shows that the ninth game was his best of the second half, with 6 catches, 134 yards and 2 TDs. If you take that game out, the last seven games were almost dismal for someonoe with this ADP.

Supporters will also add that he had 123 yards rushing in 06, but 73 of those came on one carry. I project that Javon Walker will underperform his ADP in 2007.

Walker 65 catches 1020 yards and 6 TDs.

 

[-OZ-]

I believe that I will most likely not be drafting Javon Walker in 2007. Denver historically spreads the ball well among all receivers, including the running backs. I think that Cutler will continue that trend, even increasing the distribution to Tight Ends and RBs in 07.

:X Rod Smith did fairly well: http://pro-football-reference.com/players/SmitRo01.htmBut, you make a fair point. Walker might be overvalued.

 

[SSOG]

I believe that I will most likely not be drafting Javon Walker in 2007. Denver historically spreads the ball well among all receivers, including the running backs. I think that Cutler will continue that trend, even increasing the distribution to Tight Ends and RBs in 07.

Actually, Denver historically only spreads the ball between its top-2 WRs and its top TE (or if it has no great TE, it'll spread those numbers around a TE committee). WR3+ in Denver usually barely gets crumbs (the "Ashley Lelie Integration Period" notwithstanding), and the RBs are historically very uninvolved in the passing game (63, 58, 48 over the last three years, and while they were a bit more involved with Portis in town, they're almost always below the league average for catches by RBs). As I mentioned, Denver's WR1 almost NEVER gets less than 25% of the passing yards, and most of the time gets 30+%.As for taking out his big games... from weeks 1-17, Chad Johnson averaged 11.3 points per game, but if you take out his two weeks from week 10-11, he only averaged 7.6 points per game. That doesn't stop everyone from making him one of the top 3 WRs taken. All WRs are incredibly inconsistant, and if you cherrypick stats, you can make anyone look bad. All you need to know is that Javon Walker might have had big games last year bringing up his averages... but he'll have big games next year, too.

 

[David Yudkin]

In layman's terms, Walker's value and production are high if:

- Rod Smith remains and aging, injured, past his prime superstar that doesn't play or contribute much

- Brandon Marshall has off-field issues and gets in the coach's doghouse

- Scheffler stays out with complications from his broken foot

- Graham is used primarily as a blocking tight end

- The defense is worse than expected

- The running game is ok but not what it was and the Broncos really need to pass but have no great options

Walker's value will dip if any of those don't work out as depicted. I personally don't see Walker quite as high as his supporters in this thread and not as low as some of the naysayers either. So IMO, he's probably not going to be worth the price at least one owner will invest in him so I probably won't own him this season. He jumped at least a half dozen spots ranking wise last year due to his RUSHING stats.

70-1050-7

5-30-0

 

[SSOG]

In layman's terms, Walker's value and production are high if:- Rod Smith remains and aging, injured, past his prime superstar that doesn't play or contribute much- Brandon Marshall has off-field issues and gets in the coach's doghouse- Scheffler stays out with complications from his broken foot- Graham is used primarily as a blocking tight end- The defense is worse than expected- The running game is ok but not what it was and the Broncos really need to pass but have no great optionsWalker's value will dip if any of those don't work out as depicted. I personally don't see Walker quite as high as his supporters in this thread and not as low as some of the naysayers either. So IMO, he's probably not going to be worth the price at least one owner will invest in him so I probably won't own him this season. He jumped at least a half dozen spots ranking wise last year due to his RUSHING stats.70-1050-75-30-0

I think you're representing it as if Walker's value is only high if he's the one and only possible target on the entire team, and I just don't think that's accurate. Denver's offense has always provided numbers to spread around between at least two, and sometimes three, quality targets. For instance, in the Elway heyday, despite only passing for 3600 or so yards per season, Smith, McCaffrey, *AND* Sharpe were all solid fantasy contributors. I think 2 or 3 of the first four times can all go wrong and Walker can still present solid value.

 

[David Yudkin]

In layman's terms, Walker's value and production are high if:- Rod Smith remains and aging, injured, past his prime superstar that doesn't play or contribute much- Brandon Marshall has off-field issues and gets in the coach's doghouse- Scheffler stays out with complications from his broken foot- Graham is used primarily as a blocking tight end- The defense is worse than expected- The running game is ok but not what it was and the Broncos really need to pass but have no great optionsWalker's value will dip if any of those don't work out as depicted. I personally don't see Walker quite as high as his supporters in this thread and not as low as some of the naysayers either. So IMO, he's probably not going to be worth the price at least one owner will invest in him so I probably won't own him this season. He jumped at least a half dozen spots ranking wise last year due to his RUSHING stats.70-1050-75-30-0

I think you're representing it as if Walker's value is only high if he's the one and only possible target on the entire team, and I just don't think that's accurate. Denver's offense has always provided numbers to spread around between at least two, and sometimes three, quality targets. For instance, in the Elway heyday, despite only passing for 3600 or so yards per season, Smith, McCaffrey, *AND* Sharpe were all solid fantasy contributors. I think 2 or 3 of the first four times can all go wrong and Walker can still present solid value.

I've seen several people (maybe not in this thread) pimping him as a Top 3 WR next year. IMO, he would need a lot to break his way for that to happen. I see him as a Top 10-15 guy (or in that tier or on the fringe).Again, some people this offseason have used his 2004 season in GB with 210 points (0 ppr)/300 points (1 ppr) as a baseline to EXPAND UPON for 2007. I don't see him getting those numbers unless the planets aligned like in my original post.Since you brought it up, here are all the seasons where the Broncos had a WR or TE with 150 fantasy points in a year (0 PPR) since 1990:1 Javon Walker wr 2006 174.70 2 Ashley Lelie wr 2004 150.90 3 Rod Smith wr 2004 159.70 4 Rod Smith wr 2001 203.00 5 Ed McCaffrey wr 2000 185.70 6 Rod Smith wr 2000 224.10 7 Ed McCaffrey wr 1998 165.30 8 Rod Smith wr 1998 164.50 9 Rod Smith wr 1997 191.60 10 Shannon Sharpe te 1996 166.20 11 Anthony Miller wr 1995 192.40 12 Shannon Sharpe te 1993 153.50 Other than 2000, they have not had a year with two guys at 175+ points. I'm not saying that there are not normally guys involved that could do fairly well, but there's really only be two big threats in 98, 00, and 04.I still think that if Denver wants to get where they want to go it will be by the ground with some passing mixed in but not great passing totals and running mixed in.If Walker's ADP stays where it is (WR13 in the early going), he'd be worth looking at as a potnetial value. However, in leagues I play in there are people who I can tell will take him way earlier than I would (ie the same folks saying he's a top 2-3 WR this year).Hope that helps . . .

 

[joffer]

83/1275/9

 

[SSOG]

If Walker's ADP stays where it is (WR13 in the early going), he'd be worth looking at as a potnetial value. However, in leagues I play in there are people who I can tell will take him way earlier than I would (ie the same folks saying he's a top 2-3 WR this year).Hope that helps . . .

That does help, and I certainly agree- I don't think anyone EVER becomes a top-3 WR unless the planets align. Still, he's a highly efficient WR in an offense historically conducive to solid production, and as a result, I think it's a safe bet that Javon Walker is going to get you some solid production. I especially think your TD projections are a little low- more in line with what Rod Smith would get in his prime, and not in line with what Javon Walker is capable of in his prime.

 

[Jon_Moore]

I believe that I will most likely not be drafting Javon Walker in 2007. Denver historically spreads the ball well among all receivers, including the running backs. I think that Cutler will continue that trend, even increasing the distribution to Tight Ends and RBs in 07.In the second half of 2006, Javon Walker averaged eight targets per game, four receptions per game, 66 yards, and 0.7 TDs. Not terrible, but not top ten either. A further glance shows that the ninth game was his best of the second half, with 6 catches, 134 yards and 2 TDs. If you take that game out, the last seven games were almost dismal for someonoe with this ADP.Supporters will also add that he had 123 yards rushing in 06, but 73 of those came on one carry. I project that Javon Walker will underperform his ADP in 2007.Walker 65 catches 1020 yards and 6 TDs.

If you take anyboyd's best game out, their numbers dont look as good. That argument's so tired. A quarterback passes to Tight ends and running backs more so when he's being rushed all the time, when his arm is weak, or when he's confused as to the playbook or the defense. Cutler may be a little slow the first few weeks, but his arm is very strong, and the bronco's line is still very good, he's not gonna be afraid for his life too often.

 

[rzrback77]

I also did a little research. Just looked at Denver stats for the years 2002 - 2006.

I looked at percentage of receptions by WR1, WR2, all other WRs, all TEs, and all RBs

02 - WR1 25%, WR2 19%, all other WRs 10%, TEs 25%, and RBs 21%

03 - WR1 27%, WR2 13%, all other WRs 09%, TEs 27%, and RBs 24%

04 - WR1 26%, WR2 18%, all other WRs 15%, TEs 22%, and RBs 19%

05 - WR1 31%, WR2 15%, all other WRs 11%, TEs 22%, and RBs 21%

06 - WR1 27%, WR2 20%, all other WRs 13%, TEs 15%, and RBs 25%

WR1 in 2005 is the only case of greater than 30% of receptions by one player.

Also looked at last five games of 2006 with Cutler at QB.

Cutler 06 - WR1 22%, WR2 17%, all other WRs 22%, TEs 19%, and RBs 20% and this showed even less focus one on target.

 

[David Yudkin]

If Walker's ADP stays where it is (WR13 in the early going), he'd be worth looking at as a potnetial value. However, in leagues I play in there are people who I can tell will take him way earlier than I would (ie the same folks saying he's a top 2-3 WR this year).Hope that helps . . .

That does help, and I certainly agree- I don't think anyone EVER becomes a top-3 WR unless the planets align. Still, he's a highly efficient WR in an offense historically conducive to solid production, and as a result, I think it's a safe bet that Javon Walker is going to get you some solid production. I especially think your TD projections are a little low- more in line with what Rod Smith would get in his prime, and not in line with what Javon Walker is capable of in his prime.

The other variable here is Cutler. While I like his long term prospects, who really knows what he will do in his first full season as a starter. There has been a lot of debate on how guys do in similar situtations, and some will say better and some will say worse. Last I saw, I thought the math showed guys did slightly worse, but I don't put a ton of stock in that. Similarly, Walker's numbers with Cutler were not astounding, and while it is not a major reason to have concern it is something to at least ponder why there were not as good as they were with Plummer or if it is truly coincidental and there is another explanation. He ranked as the #31 WR the last 6 weeks of the season. I don't really get much chance to watch the Broncos so I will defer to those that do to come up with some rationalizations for why that was the case.