Player Spotlight: Javon Walker (1 Viewer)

[rzrback77]

I believe that I will most likely not be drafting Javon Walker in 2007. Denver historically spreads the ball well among all receivers, including the running backs. I think that Cutler will continue that trend, even increasing the distribution to Tight Ends and RBs in 07.In the second half of 2006, Javon Walker averaged eight targets per game, four receptions per game, 66 yards, and 0.7 TDs. Not terrible, but not top ten either. A further glance shows that the ninth game was his best of the second half, with 6 catches, 134 yards and 2 TDs. If you take that game out, the last seven games were almost dismal for someonoe with this ADP.Supporters will also add that he had 123 yards rushing in 06, but 73 of those came on one carry. I project that Javon Walker will underperform his ADP in 2007.Walker 65 catches 1020 yards and 6 TDs.

If you take anyboyd's best game out, their numbers dont look as good. That argument's so tired. A quarterback passes to Tight ends and running backs more so when he's being rushed all the time, when his arm is weak, or when he's confused as to the playbook or the defense. Cutler may be a little slow the first few weeks, but his arm is very strong, and the bronco's line is still very good, he's not gonna be afraid for his life too often.

Javon Walker only with Cutler, last five games of 200635 targets 18 catches 230 yards and 2 TDsIncreased to 16 games ........112 targets 58 catches 736 yards and 6 TDsI believe that the projection for Walker having 65 catches 1020 yards and 6 TDs looks justifiable.

 

[Banger]

I believe that I will most likely not be drafting Javon Walker in 2007. Denver historically spreads the ball well among all receivers, including the running backs. I think that Cutler will continue that trend, even increasing the distribution to Tight Ends and RBs in 07.In the second half of 2006, Javon Walker averaged eight targets per game, four receptions per game, 66 yards, and 0.7 TDs. Not terrible, but not top ten either. A further glance shows that the ninth game was his best of the second half, with 6 catches, 134 yards and 2 TDs. If you take that game out, the last seven games were almost dismal for someonoe with this ADP.Supporters will also add that he had 123 yards rushing in 06, but 73 of those came on one carry. I project that Javon Walker will underperform his ADP in 2007.Walker 65 catches 1020 yards and 6 TDs.

If you take anyboyd's best game out, their numbers dont look as good. That argument's so tired. A quarterback passes to Tight ends and running backs more so when he's being rushed all the time, when his arm is weak, or when he's confused as to the playbook or the defense. Cutler may be a little slow the first few weeks, but his arm is very strong, and the bronco's line is still very good, he's not gonna be afraid for his life too often.

Javon Walker only with Cutler, last five games of 200635 targets 18 catches 230 yards and 2 TDsIncreased to 16 games ........112 targets 58 catches 736 yards and 6 TDsI believe that the projection for Walker having 65 catches 1020 yards and 6 TDs looks justifiable.

Extrapolating off 5 games is nearly worthless. So many things going on.BTW, Ron Dayne's projections off his last 4 games are 1700 yards and 20 tds. Are people predicting Scheffler to be the #1 TE based off his last 4 games?

 

[BassNBrew]

I believe that I will most likely not be drafting Javon Walker in 2007. Denver historically spreads the ball well among all receivers, including the running backs. I think that Cutler will continue that trend, even increasing the distribution to Tight Ends and RBs in 07.In the second half of 2006, Javon Walker averaged eight targets per game, four receptions per game, 66 yards, and 0.7 TDs. Not terrible, but not top ten either. A further glance shows that the ninth game was his best of the second half, with 6 catches, 134 yards and 2 TDs. If you take that game out, the last seven games were almost dismal for someonoe with this ADP.Supporters will also add that he had 123 yards rushing in 06, but 73 of those came on one carry. I project that Javon Walker will underperform his ADP in 2007.Walker 65 catches 1020 yards and 6 TDs.

If you take anyboyd's best game out, their numbers dont look as good. That argument's so tired. A quarterback passes to Tight ends and running backs more so when he's being rushed all the time, when his arm is weak, or when he's confused as to the playbook or the defense. Cutler may be a little slow the first few weeks, but his arm is very strong, and the bronco's line is still very good, he's not gonna be afraid for his life too often.

Javon Walker only with Cutler, last five games of 200635 targets 18 catches 230 yards and 2 TDsIncreased to 16 games ........112 targets 58 catches 736 yards and 6 TDsI believe that the projection for Walker having 65 catches 1020 yards and 6 TDs looks justifiable.

Extrapolating off 5 games is nearly worthless. So many things going on.BTW, Ron Dayne's projections off his last 4 games are 1700 yards and 20 tds.

Don't get SSOG started...

 

[SSOG]

I believe that I will most likely not be drafting Javon Walker in 2007. Denver historically spreads the ball well among all receivers, including the running backs. I think that Cutler will continue that trend, even increasing the distribution to Tight Ends and RBs in 07.In the second half of 2006, Javon Walker averaged eight targets per game, four receptions per game, 66 yards, and 0.7 TDs. Not terrible, but not top ten either. A further glance shows that the ninth game was his best of the second half, with 6 catches, 134 yards and 2 TDs. If you take that game out, the last seven games were almost dismal for someonoe with this ADP.Supporters will also add that he had 123 yards rushing in 06, but 73 of those came on one carry. I project that Javon Walker will underperform his ADP in 2007.Walker 65 catches 1020 yards and 6 TDs.

If you take anyboyd's best game out, their numbers dont look as good. That argument's so tired. A quarterback passes to Tight ends and running backs more so when he's being rushed all the time, when his arm is weak, or when he's confused as to the playbook or the defense. Cutler may be a little slow the first few weeks, but his arm is very strong, and the bronco's line is still very good, he's not gonna be afraid for his life too often.

Javon Walker only with Cutler, last five games of 200635 targets 18 catches 230 yards and 2 TDsIncreased to 16 games ........112 targets 58 catches 736 yards and 6 TDsI believe that the projection for Walker having 65 catches 1020 yards and 6 TDs looks justifiable.

Extrapolating off 5 games is nearly worthless. So many things going on.BTW, Ron Dayne's projections off his last 4 games are 1700 yards and 20 tds.

Don't get SSOG started...

Championship. :(

 

[BassNBrew]

I believe that I will most likely not be drafting Javon Walker in 2007. Denver historically spreads the ball well among all receivers, including the running backs. I think that Cutler will continue that trend, even increasing the distribution to Tight Ends and RBs in 07.In the second half of 2006, Javon Walker averaged eight targets per game, four receptions per game, 66 yards, and 0.7 TDs. Not terrible, but not top ten either. A further glance shows that the ninth game was his best of the second half, with 6 catches, 134 yards and 2 TDs. If you take that game out, the last seven games were almost dismal for someonoe with this ADP.Supporters will also add that he had 123 yards rushing in 06, but 73 of those came on one carry. I project that Javon Walker will underperform his ADP in 2007.Walker 65 catches 1020 yards and 6 TDs.

If you take anyboyd's best game out, their numbers dont look as good. That argument's so tired. A quarterback passes to Tight ends and running backs more so when he's being rushed all the time, when his arm is weak, or when he's confused as to the playbook or the defense. Cutler may be a little slow the first few weeks, but his arm is very strong, and the bronco's line is still very good, he's not gonna be afraid for his life too often.

Javon Walker only with Cutler, last five games of 200635 targets 18 catches 230 yards and 2 TDsIncreased to 16 games ........112 targets 58 catches 736 yards and 6 TDsI believe that the projection for Walker having 65 catches 1020 yards and 6 TDs looks justifiable.

Extrapolating off 5 games is nearly worthless. So many things going on.BTW, Ron Dayne's projections off his last 4 games are 1700 yards and 20 tds.

Don't get SSOG started...

Championship.

I knew it. Banger...you're now on my ####list.

 

[BassNBrew]

In layman's terms, Walker's value and production are high if:- Rod Smith remains and aging, injured, past his prime superstar that doesn't play or contribute much- Brandon Marshall has off-field issues and gets in the coach's doghouse- Scheffler stays out with complications from his broken foot- Graham is used primarily as a blocking tight end- The defense is worse than expected- The running game is ok but not what it was and the Broncos really need to pass but have no great optionsWalker's value will dip if any of those don't work out as depicted. I personally don't see Walker quite as high as his supporters in this thread and not as low as some of the naysayers either. So IMO, he's probably not going to be worth the price at least one owner will invest in him so I probably won't own him this season. He jumped at least a half dozen spots ranking wise last year due to his RUSHING stats.70-1050-75-30-0

So are you ignoring the facts that he came off a major knee injury, changed teams, played with a rookie QB? He sucessfully navigated the WR Burmuda Triangle in a way no other WR has ever done before. He'll be faster this year, cut better, know the offense better, and have more reps with Cutler. Talent wise this guys is in a class with TO and Steve Smith.

 

[David Yudkin]

In layman's terms, Walker's value and production are high if:- Rod Smith remains and aging, injured, past his prime superstar that doesn't play or contribute much- Brandon Marshall has off-field issues and gets in the coach's doghouse- Scheffler stays out with complications from his broken foot- Graham is used primarily as a blocking tight end- The defense is worse than expected- The running game is ok but not what it was and the Broncos really need to pass but have no great optionsWalker's value will dip if any of those don't work out as depicted. I personally don't see Walker quite as high as his supporters in this thread and not as low as some of the naysayers either. So IMO, he's probably not going to be worth the price at least one owner will invest in him so I probably won't own him this season. He jumped at least a half dozen spots ranking wise last year due to his RUSHING stats.70-1050-75-30-0

So are you ignoring the facts that he came off a major knee injury, changed teams, played with a rookie QB? He sucessfully navigated the WR Burmuda Triangle in a way no other WR has ever done before. He'll be faster this year, cut better, know the offense better, and have more reps with Cutler. Talent wise this guys is in a class with TO and Steve Smith.

I was not as concerned for his knee surgery recovery as it had basically been a full year when he suited up to start the season. The recovery cycle seems to be getting way shorter than it used to be and 12 months seems to get a guy mostly back. I'm no doctor, but I guess Walker should physically be better than he was at this point last year. How that parlays statistically is ????As for his production level in 2004, the Packers ranked 1st in passing attempts and completions and were in the Top 5 in yardage and TD passes. I'm not seeing that from the 07 Broncos. The 06 Broncos were Bottom 5 in most passing categories save TD passes and they were middle of the road there. Maybe Denver turns into Cincinatti West, but I don't see it.He may very well be an elite talent, but I still see the Broncos playing decent defense, asking Cutler to not turn the ball over, and knocking people around on the ground. The last 7 games Walker averaged 50 total yards per game. He averaged 88 the first 9 games. Given his knee injury, you would have thought the opposite would have happened. Clearly the Broncos went with a youth movement part way through the season, and that partly explains why things changed.IMO, a lot will depend on which rushing team shows up . . . the one that was second only to KC's or the one that was barely a Top 10 rushing team last year when you consider their TD production.

 

[joffer]

The last 7 games Walker averaged 50 total yards per game. He averaged 88 the first 9 games. Given his knee injury, you would have thought the opposite would have happened.

not sure i agree. i've always thought the only way for a rehabbing torn ACL to get better is rest. if he started the season less than 100%, i didn't think it would improve during the season. i could be wrong.

 

[David Yudkin]

The last 7 games Walker averaged 50 total yards per game. He averaged 88 the first 9 games. Given his knee injury, you would have thought the opposite would have happened.

not sure i agree. i've always thought the only way for a rehabbing torn ACL to get better is rest. if he started the season less than 100%, i didn't think it would improve during the season. i could be wrong.

For starters, I think the only thing we DO know is that every player recovers from injury differently. As I pointed out, it seems like these days the 12 month mark is one where players seemingly appear ready to go. Whether that means 80%, 90%, or 100% is the question. The few times I saw Walker early on last year he did not seem to show any ill effects. He looked pretty good going 83 yards for a TD against the Pats in Week 3 and 72 yards againast the Steelers a few weeks later. As I said, the biggest change was probably defenses stacking the line and daring Cutler to beat them deep.

 

[Q-Bert]

Here's a list of points-per-target from last season for every WR with 100+ targets. Generally, this list will highlight which WRs were efficient at converting opportunities into points.

I think this is my new favorite statistic. Have you done any checking on historical numbers to see if it has much predictive value?Oh, and

 

[SSOG]

Here's a list of points-per-target from last season for every WR with 100+ targets. Generally, this list will highlight which WRs were efficient at converting opportunities into points.

I think this is my new favorite statistic. Have you done any checking on historical numbers to see if it has much predictive value?

Not yet, but it's on the to-do list. The one big problem I can see with using it as a primary tool for evaluating WRs is that it's going to naturally highlight WRs who are big-time red-zone targets. It's hard to say then "well, he only had so many targets, but he was so good per target that if those targets go up any, he's going to be unstoppable". Generally, for WRs who inflated their ppt with an unnaturally large percentage of red-zone targets, I wouldn't automatically think about what could happen if targets increased (because a team only gets so many red-zone opportunities per season, regardless of how good the WR is once they get there). For a guy like D-Jax or Walker who is viewed as an all-over-the-field WR, though, I suspect it's going to be a pretty solid metric once I start checking it against historical data.

 

[Q-Bert]

Here's a list of points-per-target from last season for every WR with 100+ targets. Generally, this list will highlight which WRs were efficient at converting opportunities into points.

I think this is my new favorite statistic. Have you done any checking on historical numbers to see if it has much predictive value?

Not yet, but it's on the to-do list. The one big problem I can see with using it as a primary tool for evaluating WRs is that it's going to naturally highlight WRs who are big-time red-zone targets. It's hard to say then "well, he only had so many targets, but he was so good per target that if those targets go up any, he's going to be unstoppable". Generally, for WRs who inflated their ppt with an unnaturally large percentage of red-zone targets, I wouldn't automatically think about what could happen if targets increased (because a team only gets so many red-zone opportunities per season, regardless of how good the WR is once they get there). For a guy like D-Jax or Walker who is viewed as an all-over-the-field WR, though, I suspect it's going to be a pretty solid metric once I start checking it against historical data.

So I used the data dominator and plugged in my leagues scoring system to check out the results. I initially limited it to only players with at least 100 targets but that was cutting out some years that were interesting. For instance, it gave you Lee Evans in 2006 but not 2004 or 2005. So what I really ended up with was stats for all WR who have had at least one season of 100 targets in the years 2002-2006.For my league I consider .75 points per target (I included rushing attempts as targets) to be about the cutoff for an elite player. Some examples of players right around that level.2003 Steve Smith (finished as the #15 WR on 152 targets (targets + rush attempts))2006 Donald Driver (finished as the #5 WR on 178 targets)I haven't run any statistical tests on the data but on first glance it seems to be pretty consistent over the years. Once a guy gets above the .75 points per target threshold he is generally going to be good for the long term. There are a few isolated one shot wonders (Drew Bennett, Michael Clayton, and Peerless Price) but not many.Some of the most suprising results to me:The highest points per target that I found was Lee Evans rookie season. On a per target basis his second and third seasons are nearly identical (.97986 per target vs. .97858 per target). Lee Evans is truly elite.As you mentioned Javon Walker is amazing. 2003, 2004, and 2006 all had greater than 1 point per target (huge in my league which is a little less generous with points than footballguys standard leagues).Larry Fitzgerald is crazy consistent. Points per target of .901, .905, and .908. At this point if he remains healthy you should expect him to put up numbers nearly identical to his 2005 season.And perhaps the biggest suprise to me. Santana Moss is a superstar. On a per target basis he is significantly better than Steve Smith (who is also a superstar).Santana Moss in the last four seasons on a per target basis:2003 - 1.0872004 - 1.0742005 - 1.1142006 - 0.874His worst year is better than any year of Anquan Boldin or Andre Johnson's career.

 

[David Yudkin]

Larry Fitzgerald is crazy consistent. Points per target of .901, .905, and .908. At this point if he remains healthy you should expect him to put up numbers nearly identical to his 2005 season.

IMO, Fitz 2007 will not equal Fitz 2005 unless the Cards throw the ball 670 times again this year. Arizona is retrofitting the offense to resemble that of the Steelers. The goal is 550-600 RUSHING attempts. I think people are missing what is going on in the desert.

 

[phthalatemagic]

The goal is 550-600 RUSHING attempts. I think people are missing what is going on in the desert.

All teams would like to run that much. Problem is when you are losing, you tend to throw the ball right? Show me a losing team that runs that much and I'll show you a surprised person. Maybe you think it will be turned around in a year, I'm not a believer in that. That line is BAD.

 

[David Yudkin]

The goal is 550-600 RUSHING attempts. I think people are missing what is going on in the desert.

All teams would like to run that much. Problem is when you are losing, you tend to throw the ball right? Show me a losing team that runs that much and I'll show you a surprised person. Maybe you think it will be turned around in a year, I'm not a believer in that. That line is BAD.

Since this is a Walker PS thread I'll be brief, but consider . . .2003 Steelers 3.34 ypc (last in the league), 446 rushing attempts, 533 passing attempts without Whisenhunt.2004 Steelers 3.99 ypc, 618 rushing attempts, 358 passing attempts with WhisenhuntNow, I certainly am not saying the Cardinals have anywhere near as good a defense as the Steelers did, nor do I think the Cardinals will come anywhere near the 15 wins Pittsburgh had. But the Steelers line did not do much to help run the ball either. The Steelers were 6-10 and made huge steps. Last year's Cardinals were 5-11.When it's all said and done after the season it may be clear that the 07 and 05 Cardinals teams did not have all that much in common. Just like the 02 and 04 Steelers don't resemble each other now either (when Ward and Burress were ranked 3rd and 8th). But that's why they play the games.

 

[Q-Bert]

Larry Fitzgerald is crazy consistent. Points per target of .901, .905, and .908. At this point if he remains healthy you should expect him to put up numbers nearly identical to his 2005 season.

IMO, Fitz 2007 will not equal Fitz 2005 unless the Cards throw the ball 670 times again this year. Arizona is retrofitting the offense to resemble that of the Steelers. The goal is 550-600 RUSHING attempts. I think people are missing what is going on in the desert.

That may be the goal but with the personnel makeup of that team it will be extremely difficult if not impossible to accomplish. What have they really done to retrofit their offense? Drafting one offensive linemen while losing another one if free agency is hardly a retrofit. If they attempt to run the ball 550 times they will be in terrible shape. Edgerrin James cannot handle much more than 350 carries and the remaining backs on their team aren't good enough to warrant 200+ carries.Even if they significantly increase their number of rushing attempts and decrease their passing attempts I don't forsee a large shift in Fitzgeralds numbers. In his three seasons in the league here is a comparison between Fitz and Boldin on a per target basis2004 Fitz .901 vs. Boldin .4632005 Fitz .905 vs. Boldin .7552006 Fitz .908 vs. Boldin .675If anyone stats are going to take a hit it is going to be Boldin.It's also not as if the Steelers offense has proven to be incapable of supporting a star caliber WR. Hines Ward has been a top 10 WR in this same offense and from a passing offense standpoint Larry Fitzgerald is vastly superior to Hines Ward.I understand that a good coach has a system that he believes in and uses that to create a vision that his team can get behind. That's just good leadership. However, the offensive personnel on the Cardinals just isn't capable of supporting a ground control offense. They have a potentially great young quarterback and two game breaking wide receivers. It would be foolish to not utilize the most talented players on the team.

 

[Q-Bert]

The goal is 550-600 RUSHING attempts. I think people are missing what is going on in the desert.

All teams would like to run that much. Problem is when you are losing, you tend to throw the ball right? Show me a losing team that runs that much and I'll show you a surprised person. Maybe you think it will be turned around in a year, I'm not a believer in that. That line is BAD.

Since this is a Walker PS thread I'll be brief, but consider . . .2003 Steelers 3.34 ypc (last in the league), 446 rushing attempts, 533 passing attempts without Whisenhunt.

2004 Steelers 3.99 ypc, 618 rushing attempts, 358 passing attempts with Whisenhunt

Now, I certainly am not saying the Cardinals have anywhere near as good a defense as the Steelers did, nor do I think the Cardinals will come anywhere near the 15 wins Pittsburgh had. But the Steelers line did not do much to help run the ball either. The Steelers were 6-10 and made huge steps. Last year's Cardinals were 5-11.

When it's all said and done after the season it may be clear that the 07 and 05 Cardinals teams did not have all that much in common. Just like the 02 and 04 Steelers don't resemble each other now either (when Ward and Burress were ranked 3rd and 8th). But that's why they play the games.

I kind of forgot that.Anyway, good points. I'll move on now.

 

[David Yudkin]

It's also not as if the Steelers offense has proven to be incapable of supporting a star caliber WR. Hines Ward has been a top 10 WR in this same offense and from a passing offense standpoint Larry Fitzgerald is vastly superior to Hines Ward.

We could debate this all day.Ward's fantasy production peaked in 2002 at 219 fantasy points. Since then, his totals dropped to 182, 132, 164, and 136. IMO, that's not in the same league.Additionally, Burress dropped from 174 to 109 before leaving town and the Steelers really did not have a legit second receiver beyond that (although they should have now with Holmes).However, Boldin still is there as the primary receiving target on the Cardinals, so Fitz will have to fight to get more looks. Boldin has averaged almost 2.5 more targets a game than Fitz since Fitz joined the league.So IMO, Fitz's scoring prognosis should be viewed more as Top 10-12 with a chance to do better while many are pimping him as Top 2-3 with a chance to be #1. Given current market conditions, I suspect many people are ignoring the 670 passing attempts from 2005 and think that a run-centric coach is going to suddenly call plays like Mike Martz does.

 

[bcr8f]

Extrapolating off 5 games is nearly worthless. So many things going on.

BTW, Ron Dayne's projections off his last 4 games are 1700 yards and 20 tds. Are people predicting Scheffler to be the #1 TE based off his last 4 games?

I sure hope so.

 

[phthalatemagic]

Since this is a Walker PS thread I'll be brief, but consider . . .

Sorry, I'm sure you'll show me the way, but I can't help myself to disagree with your points. I hate to derail the topic so badly (from Javon Walker to the Arizona Cardinals? Cripes!) Maybe my posts should be split or deleted.

2003 Steelers 3.34 ypc (last in the league), 446 rushing attempts, 533 passing attempts without Whisenhunt.2004 Steelers 3.99 ypc, 618 rushing attempts, 358 passing attempts with Whisenhunt

I don't disagree that Whiz wants a running game - my point is that no matter what the philosophy is, if the team is regularly losing late in the game, they won't have big rushing attempts, becuase they'll be trying to catch up. I think to Whiz winning the game via passing at the end > running the ball to maintain his philosophy.

Now, I certainly am not saying the Cardinals have anywhere near as good a defense as the Steelers did, nor do I think the Cardinals will come anywhere near the 15 wins Pittsburgh had. But the Steelers line did not do much to help run the ball either. The Steelers were 6-10 and made huge steps. Last year's Cardinals were 5-11.

I don't know if those two teams are a good comparison. The 2003 Steelers fell apart, but that was a very talented team. Afterall, look at the three previous years. That's a playoff team with a bad year mixed in. The Cardinals have been bad for a long time, with much less talent than that Steeler team, and the talent that does exist are in luxury positions like WR instead of important ones like the OL/DL.

 

[SSOG]

The highest points per target that I found was Lee Evans rookie season. On a per target basis his second and third seasons are nearly identical (.97986 per target vs. .97858 per target). Lee Evans is truly elite.

Like I said in the Evans thread, Lee Evans had one of the most overlooked rookie seasons of the past decade. One of the most dominant rookie years in the modern era. According to the guys over at Football Outsiders, the only two WRs in the league who were better on a per-play basis that season were Wayne and Stokley (and remember, this was the "Manning tries out for the Arena League" season). Even Colston, as dominant as he was, was only the 16th best WR in the league on a per-play basis last year.Of course, I suppose now would be a good time to get back to Javon Walker...

 

[Q-Bert]

Of course, I suppose now would be a good time to get back to Javon Walker...

In the last three seasons that Javon Walker has played he has put up superstar caliber production on a per target basis. He has done this as a second year player who was expected to be the number two WR on his team, he has done it as the 1a WR with Brett Favre throwing the ball to him, and he has done it one year removed from an ACL tear, on a new team, in a run oriented offense. There is no doubt that Javon Walker is a superstar.The only question to be answered is how many targets is he going to get. If he gets >125 or so then he will be a top ten wr. If he gets >140 then he is top five with potential for number one. Based on the arguments put forth by SSOG and others I don't anticpate Walker getting fewer targets than he received last year.I'll say 78 catches for 1200 yards and 10 touchdowns.

 

[-OZ-]

Per the FBG email (BTW, love the stuff)

DEN - WR Walker Sets Goal Of 1,500 Yard Season

Source: Arnie Stapleton, Associated Press, CBS 4 Broncos Insiders

Denver Broncos WR Javon Walker figures he can have a 1,500-yard season now that he's healthy, he knows the offense better and RB Travis Henry is in the backfield to take some pressure off the passing game.

bump up projections and alert H.K.!

 

[H.K.]

Per the FBG email (BTW, love the stuff)DEN - WR Walker Sets Goal Of 1,500 Yard SeasonSource: Arnie Stapleton, Associated Press, CBS 4 Broncos InsidersDenver Broncos WR Javon Walker figures he can have a 1,500-yard season now that he's healthy, he knows the offense better and RB Travis Henry is in the backfield to take some pressure off the passing game.bump up projections and alert H.K.!

Walker needs to share this type of stuff with Cutler before he goes public with it, because Jay has other idea's on who is getting the rock....and it ain't Javon.

 

[packersfan]

Per the FBG email (BTW, love the stuff)DEN - WR Walker Sets Goal Of 1,500 Yard SeasonSource: Arnie Stapleton, Associated Press, CBS 4 Broncos InsidersDenver Broncos WR Javon Walker figures he can have a 1,500-yard season now that he's healthy, he knows the offense better and RB Travis Henry is in the backfield to take some pressure off the passing game.

I'm digging Javon this season. If Cutler improves at all he could have a huge season. Henry's presence will definitely help and I think Shanahan will make every effort to make sure Walker sees the ball plenty given how he's the team's most explosive player and top playmaker.

 

[-OZ-]

Per the FBG email (BTW, love the stuff)DEN - WR Walker Sets Goal Of 1,500 Yard SeasonSource: Arnie Stapleton, Associated Press, CBS 4 Broncos InsidersDenver Broncos WR Javon Walker figures he can have a 1,500-yard season now that he's healthy, he knows the offense better and RB Travis Henry is in the backfield to take some pressure off the passing game.bump up projections and alert H.K.!

Walker needs to share this type of stuff with Cutler before he goes public with it, because Jay has other idea's on who is getting the rock....and it ain't Javon.

I'll let the thread continue, but Walker's numbers with Cutler speak for themselves.

 

[Chunky Soup]

Per the FBG email (BTW, love the stuff)DEN - WR Walker Sets Goal Of 1,500 Yard SeasonSource: Arnie Stapleton, Associated Press, CBS 4 Broncos InsidersDenver Broncos WR Javon Walker figures he can have a 1,500-yard season now that he's healthy, he knows the offense better and RB Travis Henry is in the backfield to take some pressure off the passing game.bump up projections and alert H.K.!

Walker needs to share this type of stuff with Cutler before he goes public with it, because Jay has other idea's on who is getting the rock....and it ain't Javon.

I'll let the thread continue, but Walker's numbers with Cutler speak for themselves.

I feel really bad for people that listened to HK. You know who they are if they dropped Walker and picked up Droughns.

 

[videoguy505]

Per the FBG email (BTW, love the stuff)

DEN - WR Walker Sets Goal Of 1,500 Yard Season

Source: Arnie Stapleton, Associated Press, CBS 4 Broncos Insiders

Denver Broncos WR Javon Walker figures he can have a 1,500-yard season now that he's healthy, he knows the offense better and RB Travis Henry is in the backfield to take some pressure off the passing game.

bump up projections and alert H.K.!

Walker needs to share this type of stuff with Cutler before he goes public with it, because Jay has other idea's on who is getting the rock....and it ain't Javon.

I'll let the thread continue, but Walker's numbers with Cutler speak for themselves.

I feel really bad for people that listened to HK. You know who they are if they dropped Walker and picked up Droughns.

It's no secret that no one listens to HK. He's all schtick. Do yourself a favor and just put him and LHUCKS on ignore and you're season will go much better for it.

 

[BassNBrew]

Walker saw his FF PPG plummet by 33% with Cutler at QB in PPR formats.With Plummer he averaged 4.25 receptions 71.2 yards receiving 0.5 TD per game (along with 120 yard rush & 1 TD)But with Cutler at QB he dropped to 3.6 receptions 46 yards receiving and 0.4 TD catches per game (only 3 yards rushing)Plummer made him a top 10 FF WR, Cutler made him a borderline WR3. Denver will have many weapons at their disposal next year (Henry, Smith, Marshall, Graham, Scheffler, et al), and Cutler has already shown he likes all his options.Javon will be the single biggest disappointment for FFers in 2007:54 recepts 711 yards 4 TD's

Walker was one of the BnB early 2007 value plays. Still very bullish on him. Projections...Step 1: 2x anything HK posts - 108 recepts, 1422 yds, 8 TDStep 2: Subtract the number of times HK's momma dropped him on his head - 98 recptStep 3: Subtract HK's adult dog weight from the yardage - 1395 ydsStep 4: Subtract Cboy titles from the TDs - 8 TD98-1395-8

In my best Otis voice....look at me, told you so.

 

[packersfan]

Walker saw his FF PPG plummet by 33% with Cutler at QB in PPR formats.With Plummer he averaged 4.25 receptions 71.2 yards receiving 0.5 TD per game (along with 120 yard rush & 1 TD)But with Cutler at QB he dropped to 3.6 receptions 46 yards receiving and 0.4 TD catches per game (only 3 yards rushing)Plummer made him a top 10 FF WR, Cutler made him a borderline WR3. Denver will have many weapons at their disposal next year (Henry, Smith, Marshall, Graham, Scheffler, et al), and Cutler has already shown he likes all his options.Javon will be the single biggest disappointment for FFers in 2007:54 recepts 711 yards 4 TD's

Walker was one of the BnB early 2007 value plays. Still very bullish on him. Projections...Step 1: 2x anything HK posts - 108 recepts, 1422 yds, 8 TDStep 2: Subtract the number of times HK's momma dropped him on his head - 98 recptStep 3: Subtract HK's adult dog weight from the yardage - 1395 ydsStep 4: Subtract Cboy titles from the TDs - 8 TD98-1395-8

In my best Otis voice....look at me, told you so.

I've been high on Walker for a long time now. The guy is a big-time talent and if you like Cutler at all (and I happen to like him a lot) then everything was pointing toward Walker having a huge season. Now this is only one game but it's a very positive sign for Walker (and Cutler's) 2007 potential. Not only did Walker catch 9 passes but he was targeted a ton and even dropped a couple so his day could have been even greater. I've believed he has Top 5 potential this season and he did nothing in Week 1 to lead me to re-think that belief. What makes Walker even nicer is that you could get him in the third round of most drafts, meaning if you went WR in the first or second he's your WR2. That's pretty sweet value.

 

[H.K.]

Marshall leading the team in TD recepts....told ya.

 

[SSOG]

The guys at Footballoutsiders.com apparently have a variable in their projection system for a WR's role on his team (i.e. it's a 1 if he's a WR1 like Hines Ward or Braylon Edwards, it's a 1.5 if he's a WR1a/1b like Harrison/Wayne, it's a 2 if he's a WR2, etc). They recently posted that there were 4 receivers they actually gave a .8 to because their role in the offense is projected to be so absurd as to be beyond just a mere WR1. Those 4 guys were Steve Smith, Lee Evans, Andre Johnson... and Javon Walker. I think yesterday did a lot to reinforce Walker's place on that list.

Marshall leading the team in TD recepts....told ya.

Actually, I just re-read the thread, and I didn't see where you said that Marshall would lead the team in TD receptions through week 1. Link please?

 

[GDogg]

The guys at Footballoutsiders.com apparently have a variable in their projection system for a WR's role on his team (i.e. it's a 1 if he's a WR1 like Hines Ward or Braylon Edwards, it's a 1.5 if he's a WR1a/1b like Harrison/Wayne, it's a 2 if he's a WR2, etc). They recently posted that there were 4 receivers they actually gave a .8 to because their role in the offense is projected to be so absurd as to be beyond just a mere WR1. Those 4 guys were Steve Smith, Lee Evans, Andre Johnson... and Javon Walker. I think yesterday did a lot to reinforce Walker's place on that list.

Marshall leading the team in TD recepts....told ya.

Actually, I just re-read the thread, and I didn't see where you said that Marshall would lead the team in TD receptions through week 1. Link please?

Nice. I've got both Evans and Javon.

 

[az_prof]

Here's a list of points-per-target from last season for every WR with 100+ targets. Generally, this list will highlight which WRs were efficient at converting opportunities into points.

I think this is my new favorite statistic. Have you done any checking on historical numbers to see if it has much predictive value?

Not yet, but it's on the to-do list. The one big problem I can see with using it as a primary tool for evaluating WRs is that it's going to naturally highlight WRs who are big-time red-zone targets. It's hard to say then "well, he only had so many targets, but he was so good per target that if those targets go up any, he's going to be unstoppable". Generally, for WRs who inflated their ppt with an unnaturally large percentage of red-zone targets, I wouldn't automatically think about what could happen if targets increased (because a team only gets so many red-zone opportunities per season, regardless of how good the WR is once they get there). For a guy like D-Jax or Walker who is viewed as an all-over-the-field WR, though, I suspect it's going to be a pretty solid metric once I start checking it against historical data.

Where I could see data being useful is in targeting someone who is getting a new role, with more opportunity. So if a WR4 converted a large percentage of his opportunities and he is now moved up to WR2, that might be a good indication that he is in for some positive production.

 

[joffer]

Walker saw his FF PPG plummet by 33% with Cutler at QB in PPR formats.With Plummer he averaged 4.25 receptions 71.2 yards receiving 0.5 TD per game (along with 120 yard rush & 1 TD)But with Cutler at QB he dropped to 3.6 receptions 46 yards receiving and 0.4 TD catches per game (only 3 yards rushing)Plummer made him a top 10 FF WR, Cutler made him a borderline WR3. Denver will have many weapons at their disposal next year (Henry, Smith, Marshall, Graham, Scheffler, et al), and Cutler has already shown he likes all his options.Javon will be the single biggest disappointment for FFers in 2007:54 recepts 711 yards 4 TD's

week one leader in targets

 

[ImTheScientist]

Who else does H.K. hate? I want all those guys on my team.

 

[BassNBrew]

Seriously...isn't this the best projection methid ever developed???

Step 1: 2x anything HK posts - 108 recepts, 1422 yds, 8 TD

Step 2: Subtract the number of times HK's momma dropped him on his head - 98 recpt

Step 3: Subtract HK's adult dog weight from the yardage - 1395 yds

Step 4: Subtract Cboy titles from the TDs - 8 TD

98-1395-8

 

[phthalatemagic]

Walker saw his FF PPG plummet by 33% with Cutler at QB in PPR formats.With Plummer he averaged 4.25 receptions 71.2 yards receiving 0.5 TD per game (along with 120 yard rush & 1 TD)But with Cutler at QB he dropped to 3.6 receptions 46 yards receiving and 0.4 TD catches per game (only 3 yards rushing)Plummer made him a top 10 FF WR, Cutler made him a borderline WR3. Denver will have many weapons at their disposal next year (Henry, Smith, Marshall, Graham, Scheffler, et al), and Cutler has already shown he likes all his options.Javon will be the single biggest disappointment for FFers in 2007:54 recepts 711 yards 4 TD's

Walker was one of the BnB early 2007 value plays. Still very bullish on him. Projections...Step 1: 2x anything HK posts - 108 recepts, 1422 yds, 8 TDStep 2: Subtract the number of times HK's momma dropped him on his head - 98 recptStep 3: Subtract HK's adult dog weight from the yardage - 1395 ydsStep 4: Subtract Cboy titles from the TDs - 8 TD98-1395-8

In my best Otis voice....look at me, told you so.

Wow... that method is amazing!

 

[Jon_Moore]

So, um, Cutler sure passed to those TE's ALOT more than he did to Walker.

Especially in the last 10-12 plays of the game.

Walker had 4 for 50 in the final 10 plays of the game...

That's on pace for 64 for 800...0 tds though :thumbsup:

and that's just in the final drive...so much for 54 and 711, you can still get a crow flavored slurpy though!

 

[packersfan]

News Flash: Javon Walker is pretty darn good.

And Mike Shanahan knows it.

That has always been the most important factor in this equation.

 

[Fireman Ed]

Marshall leading the team in TD recepts....told ya.

Oh yea, you nailed it. Cutler had no problems throwing to Walker, sending 15 passes his way, with nine completions for 119 yards.Good call.

 

[H.K.]

Marshall leading the team in TD recepts....told ya.

Oh yea, you nailed it. Cutler had no problems throwing to Walker, sending 15 passes his way, with nine completions for 119 yards.Good call.

Bump.....Marshall was 7 for 133 today.Walker was 2 for 10.

 

[NCPanthersFan]

Marshall leading the team in TD recepts....told ya.

Oh yea, you nailed it. Cutler had no problems throwing to Walker, sending 15 passes his way, with nine completions for 119 yards.Good call.

Bump.....Marshall was 7 for 133 today.Walker was 2 for 10.

After waiting three weeks you must have tripped over yourself running to the keyboard to bump this.

 

[otb_lifer]

Marshall leading the team in TD recepts....told ya.

Oh yea, you nailed it. Cutler had no problems throwing to Walker, sending 15 passes his way, with nine completions for 119 yards.Good call.

Bump.....Marshall was 7 for 133 today.Walker was 2 for 10.

After waiting three weeks you must have tripped over yourself running to the keyboard to bump this.

'nuff said