Lee Evans update (week 15 edition):Week 15: 3/67/1Current: 70/1082/6Pace: 80/1237/7
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Player Spotlight: Lee Evans (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Jason Wood
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Parmcat
Canada: Beer, Bacon and Beavers
Hey Aaron,Just wondering in typical scoring formats...where does Evans rank in terms of WRs this year? I have been satisfied with him....even mildly surprised....Thanks!Parm
Right now (before Monday Night's game), he's WR10 in YTD scoring in NonPPR leagues. Marvin Harrison and TJ Houshmandzadeh will probably pass him tomorrow night so let's say WR12. Pretty nice production for a guy you could get as WR22 or later in most drafts I think. In points/game in non-PPR leagues, he ranks 14th.In PPR leagues, he ranks 12th right now in YTD scoring, but will be passed by TJ so he's likely 13th after tomorrow. In average points/game, he ranks 15th in those leagues.Obviously, his numbers are a little inflated by the one HUGE week he had against the Texans. But, in PPR leagues, he's finished with double digit fantasy points in 10 of his last 12 weeks (and he had 9.5 in one of those) so he's been pretty consistent. He's proven that he can be a reliable possession WR this year while still having the potential to explode in any given week with some huge plays.
RBM
Footballguy
Thats a really nice year in what is basically a conservative offense, with a qb just coming into his own. I have always like Evans, from his days at Wisconsin, but having watched alot of him this year since he is on my team, Im really impressed with him. Does he ever drop a pass? Im actually considering keeping him over Roy Williams on my dynasty team
also, since Losman was discussed a lot in this thread as well, might be worth checking out how he's progressing too:
In his last 3 games, he's put up these numbers:
44 for 71 (62%), 541 yards (7.62 y/a), 7 TD/2 INT, 9 rushes for 36 yards
for the year so far:
229 for 361 (63.4%), 2548 Yards (7.1 y/a), 17 TD/10 INT, 37 rushes for 130 yards and 1 TD, 88.5 QB Rating
he still needs to take fewer sacks and cut back on his fumbles, but he's been playing pretty well in a conservative offense. and the offensive line has done much much better since they moved Jason Peters over to LT.
In his last 3 games, he's put up these numbers:
44 for 71 (62%), 541 yards (7.62 y/a), 7 TD/2 INT, 9 rushes for 36 yards
for the year so far:
229 for 361 (63.4%), 2548 Yards (7.1 y/a), 17 TD/10 INT, 37 rushes for 130 yards and 1 TD, 88.5 QB Rating
he still needs to take fewer sacks and cut back on his fumbles, but he's been playing pretty well in a conservative offense. and the offensive line has done much much better since they moved Jason Peters over to LT.
-OZ-
Footballguy
So you agree with Grovediesel then?He's right, and with Evans all you need is one or two deep passes a game.He's making 2 or 3 good throws a game. Thats managing the game. Sorry, but to be a top QB in the league you need to be able to dominate a game, and he cant do that right now. Maybe he can next year, but right now he's just not killing his team. BTW, Evans was wide open on that bomb.So that was my imagination that Losman threw the ball about 60 yards in the air to hit Evans in stride yesterday?And that was my imagination when he hit Roscoe Parrish as time was winding down to setup the game winning FG against the Jags?And when Losman hit Peerless Price with a perfectly placed pass in the endzone for the winner against Houston, that was my imagination too I suppose.The bottom line is that over the last 6 games Losman has done a very good job of managing games when it called for it and a great job of making the big throws when he has been called on to make them. The Bills are using Losman this season like they should have last season. They're not putting as much pressure on him to carry the team and he is responding by growing in leaps and bounds. I'm telling you, at this time next season people are going to be forced to admit that they were wrong about JP.
dparker713
Footballguy
For him to be right, at some point JP will need to become special. He'll need to be better then mediocre. He'll need to be worthy of a number 1 draft pick. He isn't any of that at this point, and I still have serious doubts he ever will be.
Joe T
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
At least he got one thing right. BTW, great projection Rounders.
Not perfect, but close right now. I was much too low. 
-OZ-
Footballguy
It must be in a different post, the one I quoted (after you did) didn't say Losman needed to become special.
He's making the big throws when needed, he's doing a good job managing the game (although I'd prefer if he threw to Evans more), he has surpassed many people's expectations. The biggest thing is they've won 4 out of the last 5 games, including wins against Jacksonville, the Jets and the Dolphins (who just shut out Brady & co. last week) ETA: and the loss was by 3 points against the best team in the NFL. I'm nowhere near a Buffalo fan, although I do expect big things from Evans. Just give credit where it's due.So that was my imagination that Losman threw the ball about 60 yards in the air to hit Evans in stride yesterday?
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dparker713
Footballguy
I cut down the 60 yard post because this nesting is getting too long. But the original statement was me saying he's not special. Then Grove had the long post with the 60 yarder, which ened with him saying people (me) will be proved wrong. I still contend he's mediocre, not special, and I doubt he'll ever sustain anything above that. McGahee and Evans are the difference makers on that offense, not JP.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I suppose I should have read all 162 posts.
Either way, Losman is doing a very good, arguably great job right now. "Special" is too strong a word, but he's doing MUCH better than most expected. So the comment about people being forced to admit they were wrong, seems right to me.
switz
Footballguy
I wouldn't necessarily agree. Have you seen any of his games recently?
the Bills are 5-2 in their last 7 games (losses to Indy and SD by 4pts combined) after starting out the year 2-5. They have one of the league's worst run defenses and McGahee has been injured or playing hurt through most of their run.
Whether people want to admit it or not, Losman is a very big reason for those wins.
Whether people want to admit it or not, Losman is a very big reason for those wins.
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ChampBailey24
Footballguy
Losman has been decent so far and he should be good next year. He'll never be special, and he'll never be the best QB in the league but he's still young and learning the game. He has a 88 QB rating this year so I don't think he's mediocre.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Big game vs the Titans this weekend.
GO COLTS TONIGHT!
GO COLTS TONIGHT!
switz
Footballguy
How can people say "never"?
-OZ-
Footballguy
I won't say never, but I'd put the odds of him being the bona fide #1 QB in the league at about 1,000,000 : 1
msommer
Footballguy
Losman was written off way too soon. Kudos to Jauron for making him earn his job this year and hopefully JP can continue his improvement next year
msommer
Footballguy
Good on ya Joe T - FWIW I was wrong about Gore as welli was wrong on this.and Frank Gore.lzdie:
beto
Footballguy
I think the longer you play this crazy game you quit saying things like never.My worst one this year was - A sub 5'7" RB will never make it in the NFL.
dparker713
Footballguy
Up until last week, Carr had an 87 QB rating. Its not exactly a great measure of a QB in this league. I know he's improved alot, but he was more or less horrendous before this and I stand by my current assessment of his play.
switz
Footballguy
Except how many games has Carr played in? Big difference between he and Losman. Losman hasn't even played in two seasons' worth of games. On top of dealing with idiotic coaching his first two years with the Bills. The point with Losman is in the last two game his rating has been over 140 and he seems to have gotten "it"... He is moving on up
Carr's QB rating is now at 75.4 while he's averaging 6.5 yards per attempt. He's completing a high % of passes (68.6), but he's clearly not taking many chances downfield or making big plays. You can also see that in his negative TD/INT ratio (10/11). He's in his 5th year in the league but doesn't appear to be making any real progress.Losman, however, now has a QB rating of 88.5 while he's averaging 7.1 yards per attempt. Although the coaches have been very conservative with him, he's still taking some shots down the field while doing a good job of not throwing a lot of interceptions. He's been playing in much worse weather conditions than Carr while playing most of his games outdoors in the northeast. He's also showing clear signs of progress as he's improved dramatically in completion %, yards, TDs, TD/INT ratio, and QB rating from last year to this year despite playing in a completely different offensive system and facing one of the league's tougher schedules. In his last 9 games, he has thrown for 2 or more TDs five times. In the same time frame, he's thrown 0 INTS 4 times.The Bills are also 7-7 with him as the starter while the Texans are 4-10. QB Rating is just one piece of the puzzle in evaluating a QB's play, but is far from the only reason to be optimistic about Losman's prospects.I'm still not sure he'll be anything special, but he's at least headed in the right direction.
some good info here on Losman's play yesterday despite the bad weather. He's always had a strong arm, but he's also now getting comfortable in the offense and making the right reads. If he continues to improve in that area and can maintain or improve his current level of accuracy, he's going to be a very solid starter.
http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20061218/1064062.asp
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Since the bye week, Losman has been playing pretty consistently at a pro-bowl level. Since the Bills have gotten no national media attention at all during this time (understandably), nobody seems to be aware of this fact.Edit: Having read the rest of the thread now, I'll admit that I'm not sure what people mean when they say Losman will never be "special." I will concede that the odds are against him going down in NFL lore alongside John Elway and Jonny U, but that's a pretty unreasonable standard to judge him against. The main thing is that Losman is not "managing the game" a la Trent Dilfer, and he's not just letting McGahee and the defense carry the team. Losman is winning games at the QB position, which is exactly what a 1st rounder is supposed to do. Maybe the last seven games have all just been a series of flukes, but now that he's gotten decent pass protection, Losman's performance has been night-and-day from his earlier outings.
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dparker713
Footballguy
Im showing Carr's rating at an 82.1 with a 6.2 y/a, despite his most recent atrocious performance. I fully admit JP is improving, I just think he's getting rather close to his celling at this point. He's still getting sacked and fumbling way to often, but atleast now he's able to complete passes to more then just Evans. But I dont agree with the assessment that he's playing at a pro bowl level thus far this season. Certainly not when he's playing in the same conference as Peyton, Palmer, Brady, and Rivers. Right now he's been a middle of the road starter for the year. Certainly better then most predicted, but it also hasnt been a banner year for QB play throughout the league.
I don't agree that he's been playing at a Pro Bowl level either. But, a big part of the reason for that is because the coaching staff hasn't really opened up the offense for him yet. By design, the Bills offense has been pretty conservative. But, that seems preferable for a developing QB to me. As he gets more comfortable and as the protection and surrounding talent improve, he's going to be able to do a lot more than he's doing right now.sorry, I listed Carr's QB rating and y/a inaccurately. I was looking at his career numbers there by mistake. You are correct that it is 82.1 but I think when you look at the entire picture (yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio, win/loss ratio) in addition to QB rating, you get a better sense of who is playing well and who isn't. His yards per attempt puts him near the bottom of the league in the same range as Jason Campbell, Brad Johnson, and Joey Harrington. Meanwhile, Losman's average of 7.1 puts him at or slightly above the league average in the same range as Marc Bulger, Philip Rivers, Chad Pennington.BTW, I've seen Chad Pennington get a ton of love this year, but it doesn't look to me like he's been much better than Losman really.Pennington: 277/426 (65%) for 2958 yards (6.9 y/a), 15 TD/16 INT, 28 rushes for 83 yards, 28 sacks, 6 fumbles, 81.3 QB RatingLosman: 229/361 (63.4%) for 2548 yards (7.1 y/a), 17 TD/10 INT, 37 rushes for 130 yards and 1 TD, 41 sacks, 13 fumbles, 88.5 QB RatingLosman clearly takes too many sacks and some of that is his fault while some is the inadequate protection he had earlier this season. Pennington has thrown a lot more interceptions and 2 fewer TDs despite completing 48 more passes, which could potentially be explained by the difference in arm strength between the two. Losman can throw deep and in bad conditions while Chad can't, but Chad's 16 INTs are tied for 5th most in the league...something a veteran QB really shouldn't be doing.
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ChampBailey24
Footballguy
Losman is younger than Carr but has been playing better than Carr this season. Losman is still improving so I wouldn't be surprised if he made the Pro Bowl a couple of times in his career.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Apparently Losman would have to break Favre's, Manning's and Marino's records to justify to some people the Bills not taking Leinart or Cutler. Sorry pal, but I think the burden is going to be the other way around on this one. Leinart and Cutler need to outperform Losman by a large enough margin that everyone would have to admit the Bills should not have passed them up.
And lost amongst everything else in that discussion is the fact that Donte Whitner has been a very good player for the Bills this season. Among DBs he's 17th in the league in combined tackles.
Since Week 9 only 3 QBs have thrown more TDs than Losman. Since Week 10 only 2 QBs have thrown for more TDs than Losman. Since Week 10 only 2 QBs have a higher TD to INT ratio.
And that's against the #2, #24, #7, #11, #18 and #3 pass defenses. So not exactly shabby pass defenses that's he's doing that against.
dparker713
Footballguy
I'd agree that he's playing about as well as Pennington this year. Like I said, a middle of the road starter. Decent, not spectacular. Seems to me he'll neither be a reason nor a hinderance to the Bills winning a Super Bowl in the future. BTW, I've never claimed they should have drafted a QB this past draft.
I'm not sure I've seen anyone making this argument here (in this thread anyway) recently.Apparently Losman would have to break Favre's, Manning's and Marino's records to justify to some people the Bills not taking Leinart or Cutler. Sorry pal, but I think the burden is going to be the other way around on this one. Leinart and Cutler need to outperform Losman by a large enough margin that everyone would have to admit the Bills should not have passed them up.
for his 2nd year as a starter and while playing in a new offense against a tough schedule, I think he's playing about as well as anyone could have reasonably expected him to.the decision to dump Bledsoe certainly is looking a lot better these days. who knows if Losman would be at the same point if he didn't get to experience his growing pains last season.
It is obvious that most people here have watched JP not at all. There is no reason to believe that a quarterback with his natural scrambling skills and arm strength cant be a nfl caliber "winner" given enough time to develop. since the o line mix-up, when his protection has improved, he has been excellent most every outing with a conservative game plan and a terrible number 2 wide out. he has got the measurables, and he has been improving every game. no logical reason not to expect him to be a complete starter in a couple years if the bills keep heading in the right direction.
believe me, mularky is a freaking ####### as a head coach. clueless. last years bills team failure was a direct result of him and whoever else in charge mis-managing players. losman is much better than advertised nationally. give him a legit number 2, legit receiving te, consistant protection, he will put up respectable offense even in a conservative attack.
also remember that two years from now magahee might not be in buffalo, and by that time it may be jp and evans that are carrying the offensive load. i hope not but that is def may be the case.
believe me, mularky is a freaking ####### as a head coach. clueless. last years bills team failure was a direct result of him and whoever else in charge mis-managing players. losman is much better than advertised nationally. give him a legit number 2, legit receiving te, consistant protection, he will put up respectable offense even in a conservative attack.
also remember that two years from now magahee might not be in buffalo, and by that time it may be jp and evans that are carrying the offensive load. i hope not but that is def may be the case.
Lee Evans update (week 16 edition):Week 16: 5/64/1Current: 75/1146/7Pace: 80/1222/7
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
If he can avoid the crappy start like he had this year I think he'll be top 5 next year. He should still be a good value since most people will want to stay away from the Bills offense.
When people make their projections, they'll also forget that Evans accumulated 20% of his fantasy points in 1 game. He finished as the #11 WR in my league, but if you replace his monster game with his average he'd be right around WR #20. 20% is a significant percentage for 1 game and considering most people forget individual games and simply look at season totals when evaluating players, this could mislead many. I'm not disputing Evans' talent, and while I think he's certainly capable of producing as a top 10 WR consistently, he really hasn't done so this year.
LBH
Footballguy
Big games count. You could take away the best games of every good reciever and drop them in the point standings
Personally I think you can say that about a lot of WR in the top 15. Chad Johnson's stats were boosted big-time with 2 monster games. Ditto Torry Holt and Javon Walker. There weren't too many week-in and week-out consistent performers at WR this year and that's why I wouldn't necessarily downgrade Lee Evans in relation to his peers because of his 200+ yd/2TD game.
-OZ-
Footballguy
the talent / potential is there. But at least from what I've seen (I have him in every dynasty league I'm in), he's inconsistent. Most of that is due to Losman and the offense, but it's been a problem. If Buffalo can address the OL like they should have last year, the Bills should have a very interesting offense next year. It's weird though, I actually dropped him in a small redraft early this year, luckily I picked him back up a couple weeks later.Glad to see someone man up when a prediction goes wrong. Well, a prediction followed by weeks of taunting anyone who disagreed. Regardless, most people just move on to the next bold prediction without hesitation.i was wrong on this.and Frank Gore.
-OZ-
Footballguy
wow, that's pretty good.
Mr. Pink
Footballguy
I'm certain this was mentioned earlier in this thread or in another, but Evans does his best work in December. This season was particularly devastating, with TDs scored in four consecutive games to close out the season. I own him in a three player keeper league along with TO and Driver. As of today, I'm leaning toward Evans. It doesn't hurt that he has youth and upside over the other two.
Kleck
Footballguy
Sig worthy.Similar threads
