Player Spotlight: Losman & Holcomb & Nall (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: J.P. Losman & Kelly Holcomb & Craig Nall, QBs, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: J. P. Losman Player Page

Player Page Link: Kelly Holcomb Player Page

Player Page Link: Craig Nall Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Musesboy]

The situation at quarterback is the main reason that most people are down on the Bills' players this year. After moving up to make Losman a first round choice in 2004, the Bills made him their 2005 starter without giving Kelly Holcomb the chance to compete. That move angered some of the veteran players and some thought that if Losman were the best QB on the roster, he should have been required to prove it before being handed the job.

As a Bills' season ticket holder, I got to watch Losman through most of his struggles last year. He started game one against the Texans and did better than I expected. He wasn't spectacular, but he did complete over 60% of his passes and the Bills won the game comfortably. Losman's first NFL touchdown was to lineman Jason Peters. Mularkey loves to utilize trick plays and it was fitting that Losman's first TD should come on a throw to a converted TE. What I didn't know at the time was just how bad the Texans would turn out to be last year. But the good sign was that Losman didn't throw an interception in the game.

From that point on, he deteriorated fast. His next three games were a disaster and his completion rate was only 42.4% during that span. He failed to throw a TD and had two interceptions. That led to him being benched. The players seemed to respond better to Holcomb, and Eric Moulds was much more involved in the game. At that point, Holcomb's experience made him the better quarterback.

Losman appeared in five games after that, with four of them being starts. He did show some improvement. He seemed to trust his instincts and attempt passes when they were there to be made. He also appeared to be developing some chemistry with Lee Evans.

In that five game spell, Losman completed 68 of 134 passes (50.7%) for 907 yards (6.77 YPA) with 7 TDs and 6 INTs. That might look like a bad performance, but I think it is a clear indication that Losman was finally "getting it". He was immature last year; both as a player and in his interviews with the media. He should now realize that nothing will be handed to him. Hopefully the experience will humble him and make him work harder. Early reports suggest that he is a much different player to the one we saw last year.

Why do I keep talking about Losman when this is a three player evaluation? Well, I just can't see the Bills going with Holcomb or Nall. I suspect that the coaching staff will want Losman to win the job, but they will also want him to feel like he has earned the position, and they will want the rest of the team to feel the same thing. If they go with Holcomb, it would be an admission that Losman doesn't have what it takes to take the team very far. Bearing in mind they gave up the chance to draft Leinart or Cutler, I think the coaching staff thinks Losman may be the QB of the future.

Almost every QB struggles in their first year as starter. I recently wrote an article to illustrate that point and submitted it for consideration. I have no idea whether it is good enough to be published, but I will post it here if it isn't chosen. It shows just how much improvement can be expected in the second year that a quarterback starts. The top eight in the study averaged 7 FPs more in their second year as a starter, or 112 FPs over a full season.

That doesn't prove that Losman will be one that improves dramatically, but the possibility is there. It's so difficult to predict how much a QB will improve and it almost requires a leap of faith. One recent example that perfectly illustrates what can happen is the performance of Eli Manning in 2005.

Manning had a slow start to his career. After Kurt Warner had led the Giants to a 5-4 record, Manning was given the starting job. He proceeded to lose the next six games before beating the Cowboys in the final game of the season. Here are Manning's statistics for those games:

92/188 (48.9%) for 977 yards (5.20 YPA) 6 TDs and 9 INTs.

Manning was raw and it was a tough schedule, but he had a worse completion percentage than Losman, a much lower yards per attempt figure, and he threw more TDs than INTs, unlike Losman. He achieved one win and went over 200 yards on one occasion (201) as did Losman last year.

The Bills lost Eric Moulds and so Lee Evans will become the number one receiver. There is a battle for the role opposite him between Andre Davis, Peerless Price and Josh Reed. Parrish will likely compete for the slot position. Royal and Everett will replace Campbell at TE. The line has seen some turnover and will hopefully be better.

Losman is a very mobile QB and that will add to his fantasy value. In his limited action last year, he averaged 5 yards per carry and gained over 150 yards on the ground. Ten of those carries went for a first down and he had one run of over 20 yards. As he grows into his role, he will learn when to scramble and when to throw the ball away. It will also be an effective weapon in goal line situations and I expect him to run in a few TDs over the course of his career.

I don't see any staff member that ranks Losman above 29, so that does have me questioning my sanity. But I think that there is considerable cause for optimism. I may have my Buffalo glasses on, but I think Losman will emerge as the starter and outperform his draft position by a huge margin. Losman is currently being drafted behind guys that aren't even expected to start for their team, and that is ludicrous.

Prediction

273/480 3200 yards 20 TDs 16 INTs

65 carries 300 yards 2 TDs

That level of production will make Losman a weak QB1 or a very good QB2. As I expect him to go undrafted in many leagues, I would be willing to make him the last selection in my draft. If I am totally wrong, not much is lost. But I think his performance this year will leave owners scratching their heads and wondering how they missed it. And he will drag Lee Evans along with him.

I fully expect to be ridiculed for this, but that's what I think

 

[wannabee]

The situation at quarterback is the main reason that most people are down on the Bills' players this year. After moving up to make Losman a first round choice in 2004, the Bills made him their 2005 starter without giving Kelly Holcomb the chance to compete. That move angered some of the veteran players and some thought that if Losman was the best QB on the roster, he should have been required to prove it before being handed the job.

As a Bills' season ticket holder, I got to watch Losman through most of his struggles last year. He started game one against the Texans and did better than I expected. He wasn't spectacular, but he did complete over 60% of his passes and the Bills won the game comfortably. Losman's first NFL touchdown was to lineman Jason Peters. Mularkey loves to utilize trick plays and it was fitting that Losman's first TD should come on a throw to a converted TE. What I didn't know at the time was just how bad the Texans would turn out to be last year. But the good sign was that Losman didn't throw an interception in the game.

From that point on, he deteriorated fast. His next three games were a disaster and his completion rate was only 42.4% during that span. He failed to throw a TD and had two interceptions. That led to him being benched. The players seemed to respond better to Holcomb, and Eric Moulds was much more involved in the game. At that point, Holcomb's experience made him the better quarterback.

Losman appeared in five games after that, with four of them being starts. He did show some improvement. He seemed to trust his instincts and attempt passes when they were there to be made. He also appeared to be developing some chemistry with Lee Evans.

In that five game spell, Losman completed 68 of 134 passes (50.7%) for 907 yards (6.77 YPA) with 7 TDs and 6 INTs. That might look like a bad performance, but I think it is a clear indication that Losman was finally "getting it". He was immature last year; both as a player and in his interviews with the media. He should now realize that nothing will be handed to him. Hopefully the experience will humble him and make him work harder. Early reports suggest that he is a much different player to the one we saw last year.

Why do I keep talking about Losman when this is a three player evaluation? Well, I just can't see the Bills going with Holcomb or Nall. I suspect that the coaching staff will want Losman to win the job, but they will also want him to feel like he has earned the position, and they will want the rest of the team to feel the same thing. If they go with Holcomb, it would be an admission that Losman doesn't have what it takes to take the team very far. Bearing in mind they gave up the chance to draft Leinart or Cutler, I think the coaching staff thinks Losman may be the QB of the future.

Almost every QB struggles in their first year as starter. I recently wrote an article to illustrate that point and submitted it for consideration. I have no idea whether it is good enough to be published, but I will post it here if it isn't chosen. It shows just how much improvement can be expected in the second year that a quarterback starts. The top eight in the study averaged 7 FPs more in their second year as a starter, or 112 FPs over a full season.

That doesn't prove that Losman will be one that improves dramatically, but the possibility is there. It's so difficult to predict how much a QB will improve and it almost requires a leap of faith. One recent example that perfectly illustrates what can happen is the performance of Eli Manning in 2005.

Manning had a slow start to his career. After Kurt warner had led the Giants to a 5-4 record, Manning was given the starting job. He proceeded to lose the next six games before beating the Cowboys in the final game of the season. Here are Manning's statistics for those games:

92/188 (48.9%) for 977 yards (5.20 YPA) 6 TDs and 9 INTs.

Manning was raw and it was a tough schedule, but he had a worse completion percentage than Losman, a much lower yards per attempt figure, and he threw more TDs than INTs, unlike Losman. He achieved one win and went over 200 yards on one occasion (201) as did Losman last year.

The Bills lost Eric Moulds and so Lee Evans will become the number one receiver. There is a battle for the role opposite him between Andre Davis, Peerless Price and Josh Reed. Parrish will likely compete for the slot position. Royal and Everett will replace Campbell at TE. The line has seen some turnover and will hopefully be better.

Losman is a very mobile QB and that will add to his fantasy value. In his limited action last year, he averaged 5 yards per carry and gained over 150 yards on the ground. Ten of those carries went for a first down and he had one run of over 20 yards. As he grows into his role, he will learn when to scramble and when to throw the ball away. It will also be an effective weapon in goal line situations and I expect him to run in a few TDs over the course of his career.

I don't see any staff member that ranks Losman above 29, so that does have me questioning my sanity. But I think that there is considerable cause for optimism. I may have my Buffalo glasses on, but I think Losman will emerge as the starter and outperform his draft position by a huge margin. Losman is currently being drafted behind guys that aren't even expected to start for their team, and that is ludicrous.

Prediction

273/480 3200 yards 20 TDs 16 INTs

65 carries 300 yards 2 TDs

That level of production will make Losman a weak QB1 or a very good QB2. As I expect him to go undrafted in many leagues, I would be willing to make him the last selection in my draft. If I am totally wrong, not much is lost. But I think his performance this year will leave owners scratching their heads and wondering how they missed it. And he will drag Lee Evans along with him.

I fully expect to be ridiculed for this, but that's what I think

thanks for the indepth post. Are you trying to best Magaw and Yudkin for post length?

 

[Musesboy]

thanks for the indepth post. Are you trying to best Magaw and Yudkin for post length?

I just got on a roll It's just something that I feel strongly about. Maybe I am hoping against hope as a Buffalo fan that Losman has what it takes, but there are plenty of players that had far worse years in their first year and went on to success.

It's fashionable to jump on the bandwagon when there is a general feeling about players, but I think it's way too early to give up on any QB after just eight starts.

I am sure this post will be bumped if I am hopelessly wrong

 

[H.K.]

Paging ConstruxBoy, paging ConstruxBoy...

 

[CanadianNFLJunkie]

Well I'll be the first to shoot down these numbers. 3200 yards would make him 13th based on last year's leaders. First off that's assuming he starts AND lasts the year, which I don't think he'll do. Being a young gun, he's going to have his good and bad games, but so far Losman's best game was 224 yards, which was his ONLY game where he threw for over 200 yards. In order for Losman to get up towards 3200 yards, he'll have to AVERAGE 200 yards. Now that doesn't sound like a lot of yards since Buffalo will be run first, play strong defense and then rely on the arm of whatever QB starts. I look at the numbers that Chicago had last year to compare. Chicago as a team only had 2201 yards passing last year. Sure they had a lot of leads in most of their games last year so they could run out the clock via the ground. Buffalo will probably need to throw the ball with some success in order to help their running game but this is all moot since I don't think Losman will play well enough not to be benched. I do think he is their future QB but his learning curve has a way to go still. Kelly Holcomb is more of a flat-line type of QB where his numbers and play won't scare D/C's much. Losman is the wild card where he has a lot of upside to his play/game. I say he does improve this year but maybe 2800 yards, 16 TD's and 18 picks.

 

[PACKER 7]

Personally, I can't understand why Holcomb is not a lock at QB. I know they paid Losman a lot of money, but there is something to be said for presence on the field and with your teammates.

Just from watching, I have no first hand knowledge, I think the team just runs better when Holcomb is at the wheel.

While neither will light the world on fire, the Bills do get an easier schedule this year. I think Moulds really hurts. They have no proven WR left on the otherside of Evans and please don't say Price, he hasn't been good since he left Buffalo.

I'm going to go with Holcomb as the winner of this battle. Probably will be wrong, but what the hey.

Holcomb or even Buf QB if you want to call it that:

248 comp, 350 att, 2880yds, 16TDs, and 13 Ints

 

[Musesboy]

There's a good interview with Losman on this page...

http://www.buffalobills.com/multimedia/ind...1.rm&proto=rtsp

 

[Joseph]

Personally, I can't understand why Holcomb is not a lock at QB. I know they paid Losman a lot of money, but there is something to be said for presence on the field and with your teammates.

Just from watching, I have no first hand knowledge, I think the team just runs better when Holcomb is at the wheel.

While neither will light the world on fire, the Bills do get an easier schedule this year. I think Moulds really hurts. They have no proven WR left on the otherside of Evans and please don't say Price, he hasn't been good since he left Buffalo.

I'm going to go with Holcomb as the winner of this battle. Probably will be wrong, but what the hey.

Holcomb or even Buf QB if you want to call it that:

248 comp, 350 att, 2880yds, 16TDs, and 13 Ints

While the Bills performed better with Holcombe at the helm last year, they still weren't good enough to compete with even the middle of the road teams in the NFL. With Losman, we haven't seen his ceiling (hopefully), and the sooner they find out what that ceiling is, the sooner they will have their QB of the future, or know that they need to cut bait. The team isn't going anywhere with Holcombe, so start the young guy.With that said, I'm fairly optimistic about Losman's chances to outperform his draft position (which isn't really saying much). I wouldn't be terribly uncomfortable with him as the last man in a QB committee given the Bills fairly easy schedule this year.

As for projections, I'm not sure it makes sense to even bother with them for Losman. Based on his draft position (or lack thereof) projecting anything more than token success would make him worth his draft position, and I feel he will definately do that.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Personally, I can't understand why Holcomb is not a lock at QB. I know they paid Losman a lot of money, but there is something to be said for presence on the field and with your teammates.

Just from watching, I have no first hand knowledge, I think the team just runs better when Holcomb is at the wheel.

While neither will light the world on fire, the Bills do get an easier schedule this year. I think Moulds really hurts. They have no proven WR left on the otherside of Evans and please don't say Price, he hasn't been good since he left Buffalo.

I'm going to go with Holcomb as the winner of this battle. Probably will be wrong, but what the hey.

Holcomb or even Buf QB if you want to call it that:

248 comp, 350 att, 2880yds, 16TDs, and 13 Ints

While the Bills performed better with Holcombe at the helm last year, they still weren't good enough to compete with even the middle of the road teams in the NFL. With Losman, we haven't seen his ceiling (hopefully), and the sooner they find out what that ceiling is, the sooner they will have their QB of the future, or know that they need to cut bait. The team isn't going anywhere with Holcombe, so start the young guy.With that said, I'm fairly optimistic about Losman's chances to outperform his draft position (which isn't really saying much). I wouldn't be terribly uncomfortable with him as the last man in a QB committee given the Bills fairly easy schedule this year.

As for projections, I'm not sure it makes sense to even bother with them for Losman. Based on his draft position (or lack thereof) projecting anything more than token success would make him worth his draft position, and I feel he will definately do that.

While there aren't many reasons for optimism IMHO, if TC gets him the starting QB gig in Buffalo, you can't beat him as the last piece in a QBBC as Joseph said. He could potentially go undrafted whether he gets the starting QB position or not after TC, so a late round flyer draft spot will likely be outperfomed. He does have many things going against him though:

--below average offensive line

--Unproven WR's though Evans has shown flashes

--Subpar performance last year

Something in your draft likely has gone wrong if you have to pick him or you have huge rosters, but it wouldn't be the end of the world. Projections are virtually useless right now till training camp clears the air a little better.

 

[msommer]

Around May when preparing for a very large league I faced the task of having to project the BUF#1 qb.

My numbers were:

450 attempts with 288 completions for 3096 yards, 20 TDs and 18 INTs, 6 Fumbles lost. Virtually nothing on the ground.

My numbers were based on Holcomb and Losman's performance last year (sorry construxboy - Nall is not going to win this job), I've not factored in massive improvements as I don't think Holcomb can and I'm not sure Losman will.

Now, I am still not sure who of the two will put up these numbers which project out to QB 25 in that scoring system (the other projections might be wrong as well so take that witha grain of salt).

Levy is old school (at 77 he would be). He is not going to hand anything to anyone. At the same time I have got to believe that he will be interested in exploring the ceiling - and that is with Losman over Holcomb (note to construxboy - if Losman sucks Nall will have a chance to at least compete for real in 2007).

What puts a positive spin on this whole situation is:

1) Jauron likes to run and is defensive minded - no way the defense will fold like last year - Spikes should be back as well - less need to push offensively which should help whoever wins this job to cut down on errors (I think that guy is Losman)

2) While the O-Line is not going to be stellar - Fairchild came from STL - who have they played on the other side from Pace that has not been a turnstile? The STL offense has still put up good numbers. No one expects a spread offense here - see item 1 - who is more mobile though - that would be Losman

The negative spin:

1) How will Fairchild handle playcalling responsibilities? Jauron was HC in CHI for what did not exactly invent the dink dunk offense but certainly perfected it and was ridiculed for that.

2) When was the last time a STL qb played a whole season? Not this millenium as far as I remember (2000 is still in the 2nd millennium if Warner stayed healthy then - I'm too lazy to look it up)

Still, I think the above numbers are still sound, I believe Losman will earn the job, and Buffalo will be surprisingly competitive in a tough division. Mind you - they will still be in the bottom half of the NFL.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Paging ConstruxBoy, paging ConstruxBoy...

In the car on the way to Myrtle. I'll defend Nall's honor Sunday. Damn good post by Muse though

 

[Musesboy]

In the car on the way to Myrtle. I'll defend Nall's honor Sunday. Damn good post by Muse though

Thank you, Sir

 

[rzrback77]

The Buffalo QB job is up for grabs. The Buffalo passing game has produced an average of 2925 yards and 20TDs over the past two seasons. There are expectations that the defense will be much improved and potential for an already conservative offense to be even more so.

FBG projects the starter as Holcomb, but most Bill posters I read think it will be Losman. They have five WRs and only one is a certain starter. He has never been the "Go-To" guy. They signed Andre Davis from the Patswh didn't so much last year and is with his third team in three years. They resigned Peerless Price who hasn't done squat since he left Buffalo after the 02 season and is also with his third team Reed or Parrish to sign these two guys.

I just don't see how any of these Buffalo QBs could be drafted. I think that even if the starter is known, that they should be considered only in line with the Bears and Jets QBs and unless you play in a 14-team league, I would not consider them at all.

Holcomb 180 comps on 310 att for 2100 yds 12 TDs and 8 Ints

Losman 50 comps on 105 att for 580 yds 4 TDs and 7 Ints

Nall 40 comps on 88 att for 560 yds 4 TDs and 3 Ints

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Here's my short take on the Bills QB situation:

J.P. Losman - Losman did not show me very much in his play last year. Although he is a young QB and certainly dseserves time to improve his QB skills, he was sorely lacking in one phase of the game that I believe is vital to sucessful QBs: Leadership. In my opinion, he is lacking the basic QB charisma skills that are vital to the job, not unlike Joey Harrington does. It is well documented that the Bills veterans were very happy with the switch to Holcomb last year. I'm sure that some of that happiness was due to the fact that Holcomb gave them a better chance to win. But I think that the vets also felt like they were an offense lacking leadership and Holcomb could give them more of that than Losman.

As with most Bills fans, I hope that Losman can turn it around and be a 10 year starter for the Bills. But I can't see that happening at this point.

Kelly Holcomb - I don't think that Holcomb is the answer. Actually, I know he isn't. My opinion is that he is the type of QB that can be a good 2nd string, off the bench, occasional start QB. And he is worth keeping around for that. But under no circumstances should he be the Bills #1 QB this year. I hope that Levy and Jauron agree with me.

Craig Nall - Ahh...Nall. Coming out of school, I liked him as one of those rough around the edges, strong armed, cocky guy who could surprise down the road. I liked him in Green Bay, watching and learning from Favre. Now that he's in Buffalo, I like him as a guy who can take a team that is at a low point and grow with them as they return to the playoffs in 2-4 years. The question is whether he can make those next steps and progress to become a legitimate NFL QB. I'm hoping that Steve Fairchild is the type of coach that can help him make those steps and can turn him into the starter.

Since I infamously drafted him in the 12th round of a Survivor draft, the Bills have had several OTAs, in which Nall's performance was not as good as I expected. He did start playing better near the end of OTAs and I do think that he can progress enough in training camp to become the starter. But there is certainly much less room for error in his development now. he needs to show something special in training camp to become the week 1 starter.

In conclusion, this is certainly a QB situation you want to avoid if possible.

But if you're a Bills fan, I think that Nall could be the best option long term to turn the team around.

 

[Musesboy]

Kelly Holcomb - I don't think that Holcomb is the answer. Actually, I know he isn't. My opinion is that he is the type of QB that can be a good 2nd string, off the bench, occasional start QB. And he is worth keeping around for that. But under no circumstances should he be the Bills #1 QB this year. I hope that Levy and Jauron agree with me.

I totally agree with this

 

[msommer]

Kelly Holcomb - I don't think that Holcomb is the answer. Actually, I know he isn't. My opinion is that he is the type of QB that can be a good 2nd string, off the bench, occasional start QB. And he is worth keeping around for that. But under no circumstances should he be the Bills #1 QB this year. I hope that Levy and Jauron agree with me.

I totally agree with this

And not with any of the rest?Me too

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Kelly Holcomb - I don't think that Holcomb is the answer. Actually, I know he isn't. My opinion is that he is the type of QB that can be a good 2nd string, off the bench, occasional start QB. And he is worth keeping around for that. But under no circumstances should he be the Bills #1 QB this year. I hope that Levy and Jauron agree with me.

I totally agree with this

And not with any of the rest?Me too

Feel the Nall love, brother!

 

[Musesboy]

Feel the Nall love, brother!

As long as one of them emerges so we have a future

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Feel the Nall love, brother!

As long as one of them emerges so we have a future

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I think Nall is the long term answer in Buffalo.

JP Loserman has shown me very little in 2 seasons.

 

[Gandalf]

From KFFL:

Bills | Holcomb to start first preseason game

Thu, 10 Aug 2006 21:04:51 -0700

Chris Brown, of BuffaloBills.com, reports Buffalo Bills head coach #### Jauron ended the suspense Thursday night, Aug. 10, as he announced that QB Kelly Holcomb will get the start in Buffalo's first preseason game against Carolina Saturday night, Aug. 12. "Kelly will start and he'll probably play a good deal of the first (quarter) and part of the second quarter and then J.P.(QB J.P. Losman) will come in and then we'll probably just switch it the next week," said Jauron. Jauron said he based his decision strictly on seniority so the 10-year veteran got the nod.

 

[brakeyawself]

From KFFL:

Bills | Holcomb to start first preseason game

Thu, 10 Aug 2006 21:04:51 -0700

Chris Brown, of BuffaloBills.com, reports Buffalo Bills head coach #### Jauron ended the suspense Thursday night, Aug. 10, as he announced that QB Kelly Holcomb will get the start in Buffalo's first preseason game against Carolina Saturday night, Aug. 12. "Kelly will start and he'll probably play a good deal of the first (quarter) and part of the second quarter and then J.P.(QB J.P. Losman) will come in and then we'll probably just switch it the next week," said Jauron. Jauron said he based his decision strictly on seniority so the 10-year veteran got the nod.

I find it troubling when censorship prevents us from from calling a man by his name. Thanks for ending the suspense, ####. My money is on a Jim Kelly comeback.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

From KFFL:

Bills | Holcomb to start first preseason game

Thu, 10 Aug 2006 21:04:51 -0700

Chris Brown, of BuffaloBills.com, reports Buffalo Bills head coach #### Jauron ended the suspense Thursday night, Aug. 10, as he announced that QB Kelly Holcomb will get the start in Buffalo's first preseason game against Carolina Saturday night, Aug. 12. "Kelly will start and he'll probably play a good deal of the first (quarter) and part of the second quarter and then J.P.(QB J.P. Losman) will come in and then we'll probably just switch it the next week," said Jauron. Jauron said he based his decision strictly on seniority so the 10-year veteran got the nod.

I REALLY hope he just wants JP in there against more 2nd teamers to get his confidence up...

 

[Musesboy]

From KFFL:

Bills | Holcomb to start first preseason game

Thu, 10 Aug 2006 21:04:51 -0700

Chris Brown, of BuffaloBills.com, reports Buffalo Bills head coach #### Jauron ended the suspense Thursday night, Aug. 10, as he announced that QB Kelly Holcomb will get the start in Buffalo's first preseason game against Carolina Saturday night, Aug. 12. "Kelly will start and he'll probably play a good deal of the first (quarter) and part of the second quarter and then J.P.(QB J.P. Losman) will come in and then we'll probably just switch it the next week," said Jauron. Jauron said he based his decision strictly on seniority so the 10-year veteran got the nod.

I REALLY hope he just wants JP in there against more 2nd teamers to get his confidence up...

If he wants a predictable short passing game and the team to have no future, this is definitely the way to go. Losman will win it.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

From KFFL:

Bills | Holcomb to start first preseason game

Thu, 10 Aug 2006 21:04:51 -0700

Chris Brown, of BuffaloBills.com, reports Buffalo Bills head coach #### Jauron ended the suspense Thursday night, Aug. 10, as he announced that QB Kelly Holcomb will get the start in Buffalo's first preseason game against Carolina Saturday night, Aug. 12. "Kelly will start and he'll probably play a good deal of the first (quarter) and part of the second quarter and then J.P.(QB J.P. Losman) will come in and then we'll probably just switch it the next week," said Jauron. Jauron said he based his decision strictly on seniority so the 10-year veteran got the nod.

I REALLY hope he just wants JP in there against more 2nd teamers to get his confidence up...

If he wants a predictable short passing game and the team to have no future, this is definitely the way to go. Losman will win it.

I sure hope so. I have my reservations, though. My confidence in the Bills coaches has shriveled up like the Grinches heart over the past 10 years...

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I know he's been injured, but is there anyone watching this battle that doubts that Nall is the best option?

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I know he's been injured, but is there anyone watching this battle that doubts that Nall is the best option?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I know he's been injured, but is there anyone watching this battle that doubts that Nall is the best option?

You think Losman is better? If so then we're in for a long couple of years.

 

[wannabee]

Bills | Nall closer to returning; hopes to compete

Published Fri Aug 11 11:51:00 p.m. ET 2006

(KFFL) Jay Skurski, of the Tonawanda News, reports Buffalo Bills QB Craig Nall (hamstring) hopes to re-enter the team's quarterback race soon. He admits his injury has been frustrating. Nall has increased his workload with trainers on the sidelines throughout the week. He hopes to return to full practice Monday, Aug. 14, though he added he won't push it. Nall fully expects to return to the quarterback race when he's fully healthy

 

[ConstruxBoy]

 

[Musesboy]

Adam Schefter said on NFL Network that Losman is slightly ahead in the race and would likely win the job it it remains close because of the investment they have in him.

Holcomb is starting because he is the veteran.

No link.

 

[Musesboy]

I find this encouraging...

LINK

After Monday morning's walk through practice at St. John Fisher, J.P. Losman stayed on the field an extra 20 minutes to work on some of his mechanics with fellow quarterback Kliff Kingsbury. After reviewing his performance in Saturday night's preseason game on film with his coaches, Losman is focused on sharpening up his fundamentals.

"In that first game some bad habits came back that I definitely have to correct," said Losman of his performance at Carolina. "So there are some footwork things that I'm going to be working on this week."

Losman, who said he felt more comfortable in his approach to the game and handling the atmosphere as well as the responsibilities of the position, found his footwork in the pocket was not up to par.

"When you go out there with a new offense you're only thinking about the offense," said Losman. "You're thinking about the reads and defense and you kind of lose focus on what you've worked so hard on. Coach Fairchild and Turk (Schonert) have tried to show me some new footwork with different steps and different rhythms with respect to the passing game. So at times I reverted back to my old footwork which was unacceptable."

The results of that poor footwork were some inaccurate passes that fell short of their intended targets Saturday night, even though Losman completed better than 62 percent of his attempts (15-24).

"My footwork in the game disrupted that timing I've been working hard on," said Losman. "That's why I was out here working on some extra things to get my feet right like taking a deep breath and slowing down, which is what the coaches want me to do. I'm working on it."

Losman took the majority of the first team reps during the morning walk through today, but he's not reading any meaning into those reps coming off of his preseason game performance.

"I don't know what the coaches are thinking," said Losman. "There was good and bad. I played a little bit more so I probably had more opportunity to do some good. This week we just need to pick it up and keep moving forward and get better. There are no steps back from here."

 

[joffer]

August 14, 2006, 21:54

Bills :: QB

Bills HC Jauron Names QB Losman Front-Runner To Start

Chris Brown, BuffaloBills.com - [Full Article]

Buffalo Bills head coach #### Jauron said on Monday that quarterback J.P. Losman is the current front-runner for the starting quarterback job with the team. "In terms of our quarterback situation J.P. is definitely the front-runner at this point," said Jauron. "He will start the next game and he will get more of the reps in practice this week. It won't be 50-50 and then we'll see where it goes after this weekend."

 

[Musesboy]

August 14, 2006, 21:54 Bills :: QBBills HC Jauron Names QB Losman Front-Runner To StartChris Brown, BuffaloBills.com - [Full Article]Buffalo Bills head coach #### Jauron said on Monday that quarterback J.P. Losman is the current front-runner for the starting quarterback job with the team. "In terms of our quarterback situation J.P. is definitely the front-runner at this point," said Jauron. "He will start the next game and he will get more of the reps in practice this week. It won't be 50-50 and then we'll see where it goes after this weekend."

 

[Musesboy]

http://buffalobills.com/blog/?blogger_id=1

Posted By: Chris Brown | Time: 11:20 PM ET

LOSMAN: J.P. was at it again working on his footwork after practice. He only took about 10 minutes to work on it since there was a torrential downpour. Then when the rain let up he went to sign several dozen autographs. He's not only doing the right things he's saying them too. I think the trials of last season have forced him to mature faster and that should benefit this team if in fact he can continue on his current path.

I've probably said this before, but Losman's physical gifts give this offense more options in the passing game. Part of the reason Willis struggled so much in the running game in the second half of last season was because with Holcomb starting teams didn't respect the deep passing game as much. They crowded the line of scrimmage a lot and not only slowed down the run game, but enabled defenses to be more effective in getting pressure because more players could be closer to the line of scrimmage.

Now of course Losman's superior physical ability doesn't mean much if he can't take advantage of it on a consistent basis. I believe he understands that now more than ever which is why you're constantly hearing him talk about improving himself and his game so the team can have success. I think he gets it now, the whole thing. Will there still be some inconsistencies in his game? Absolutely. He's still learning. But just tonight getting those extra reps were a benefit to him. You could see him getting into a rhythm, throwing more decisively. This declaration of him as the frontrunner has helped his confidence. It was visible on the field. He was threading passes in between defenders and making good reads and progressions.

There was less patting the ball and shuffling the feet when the first option wasn't there. So as he said himself hopefully there are no more steps backward. There will be bad series, heck probably a bad quarter here and there, maybe even a bad game, but Jauron said it best tonight when asked what J.P. has done to separate himself.

"It was based on everything - how Kelly played to some degree and how J.P. played. J.P. certainly could have done a lot of things better, but he did make some good throws, some strong throws down the field. He has mobility in his favor in this competition. He's very mobile, very athletic and he's got a strong arm."

#### said going into the Carolina game that he didn't want to see either QB play conservative. He wanted to see what they could do. But he also said their evaluation would be based on their judgment and their decision making. His other big point was you have got to get chunk yardage to win in this league.

Losman gives them better chances at getting those 20 and 30 yard chunks, which the Bills will need if they even want a chance to score.

HOLCOMB: Kelly was not happy coming off the field tonight. His body language and facial expression was one of frustration. While he likely knew he wasn't going to get as many reps as J.P. tonight, he probably didn't anticipate it was going to be as lopsided as it was. Losman got the last 19 snaps of practice. It had to tick him off a bit.

I asked Jauron with the majority of reps going to Losman there aren't going to be many for Holcomb or Nall to prove that they deserve more reps to challenge Losman for the starting role. He agreed.

So in essence Losman has to fall on his face to lose the starting gig.

 

[Musesboy]

I had to check this as it was so out of line with most other predictions

Predicted

273/480 3200 yards 20 TDs 16 INTs

65 carries 300 yards 2 TDs

Actual

268/429 3051 yards 19 TDs 14 INTs

38 carries 140 yards 1 TD

As a Bills fan, I was encouraged by Losman's season. He finished 11th in fantasy scoring, but, more importantly, he looked like he might really be the future for the team. It was good to see the coaching staff give him the chance to grow.

I was way off on the rushing predictions, although I do think he has the ability to scramble. In some situations, especially early in the season, the coaches called very conservative plays. I am hoping that he continues to grow next season. The Bills need a genuine WR2 opposite Evans, and that would help Losman's production even more.

The situation at quarterback is the main reason that most people are down on the Bills' players this year. After moving up to make Losman a first round choice in 2004, the Bills made him their 2005 starter without giving Kelly Holcomb the chance to compete. That move angered some of the veteran players and some thought that if Losman were the best QB on the roster, he should have been required to prove it before being handed the job.

As a Bills' season ticket holder, I got to watch Losman through most of his struggles last year. He started game one against the Texans and did better than I expected. He wasn't spectacular, but he did complete over 60% of his passes and the Bills won the game comfortably. Losman's first NFL touchdown was to lineman Jason Peters. Mularkey loves to utilize trick plays and it was fitting that Losman's first TD should come on a throw to a converted TE. What I didn't know at the time was just how bad the Texans would turn out to be last year. But the good sign was that Losman didn't throw an interception in the game.

From that point on, he deteriorated fast. His next three games were a disaster and his completion rate was only 42.4% during that span. He failed to throw a TD and had two interceptions. That led to him being benched. The players seemed to respond better to Holcomb, and Eric Moulds was much more involved in the game. At that point, Holcomb's experience made him the better quarterback.

Losman appeared in five games after that, with four of them being starts. He did show some improvement. He seemed to trust his instincts and attempt passes when they were there to be made. He also appeared to be developing some chemistry with Lee Evans.

In that five game spell, Losman completed 68 of 134 passes (50.7%) for 907 yards (6.77 YPA) with 7 TDs and 6 INTs. That might look like a bad performance, but I think it is a clear indication that Losman was finally "getting it". He was immature last year; both as a player and in his interviews with the media. He should now realize that nothing will be handed to him. Hopefully the experience will humble him and make him work harder. Early reports suggest that he is a much different player to the one we saw last year.

Why do I keep talking about Losman when this is a three player evaluation? Well, I just can't see the Bills going with Holcomb or Nall. I suspect that the coaching staff will want Losman to win the job, but they will also want him to feel like he has earned the position, and they will want the rest of the team to feel the same thing. If they go with Holcomb, it would be an admission that Losman doesn't have what it takes to take the team very far. Bearing in mind they gave up the chance to draft Leinart or Cutler, I think the coaching staff thinks Losman may be the QB of the future.

Almost every QB struggles in their first year as starter. I recently wrote an article to illustrate that point and submitted it for consideration. I have no idea whether it is good enough to be published, but I will post it here if it isn't chosen. It shows just how much improvement can be expected in the second year that a quarterback starts. The top eight in the study averaged 7 FPs more in their second year as a starter, or 112 FPs over a full season.

That doesn't prove that Losman will be one that improves dramatically, but the possibility is there. It's so difficult to predict how much a QB will improve and it almost requires a leap of faith. One recent example that perfectly illustrates what can happen is the performance of Eli Manning in 2005.

Manning had a slow start to his career. After Kurt Warner had led the Giants to a 5-4 record, Manning was given the starting job. He proceeded to lose the next six games before beating the Cowboys in the final game of the season. Here are Manning's statistics for those games:

92/188 (48.9%) for 977 yards (5.20 YPA) 6 TDs and 9 INTs.

Manning was raw and it was a tough schedule, but he had a worse completion percentage than Losman, a much lower yards per attempt figure, and he threw more TDs than INTs, unlike Losman. He achieved one win and went over 200 yards on one occasion (201) as did Losman last year.

The Bills lost Eric Moulds and so Lee Evans will become the number one receiver. There is a battle for the role opposite him between Andre Davis, Peerless Price and Josh Reed. Parrish will likely compete for the slot position. Royal and Everett will replace Campbell at TE. The line has seen some turnover and will hopefully be better.

Losman is a very mobile QB and that will add to his fantasy value. In his limited action last year, he averaged 5 yards per carry and gained over 150 yards on the ground. Ten of those carries went for a first down and he had one run of over 20 yards. As he grows into his role, he will learn when to scramble and when to throw the ball away. It will also be an effective weapon in goal line situations and I expect him to run in a few TDs over the course of his career.

I don't see any staff member that ranks Losman above 29, so that does have me questioning my sanity. But I think that there is considerable cause for optimism. I may have my Buffalo glasses on, but I think Losman will emerge as the starter and outperform his draft position by a huge margin. Losman is currently being drafted behind guys that aren't even expected to start for their team, and that is ludicrous.

Prediction

273/480 3200 yards 20 TDs 16 INTs

65 carries 300 yards 2 TDs

That level of production will make Losman a weak QB1 or a very good QB2. As I expect him to go undrafted in many leagues, I would be willing to make him the last selection in my draft. If I am totally wrong, not much is lost. But I think his performance this year will leave owners scratching their heads and wondering how they missed it. And he will drag Lee Evans along with him.

I fully expect to be ridiculed for this, but that's what I think

 

[-OZ-]

The Bills need a genuine WR2 opposite Evans, and that would help Losman's production even more.

Reed showed flashes this year, Price and Parrish aren't horrible either. They need to improve the OL first.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

J.P. Losman became the third Bills quarterback to take every snap (not counting one direct snap to wideout Josh Reed) from center in a season. Joe Ferguson (in 1977) and Jim Kelly (in 1988) are the only others to do it. Losman and Ferguson (also in 1977) are the only Bills quarterbacks to finish a season with all of the team's pass completions.