Consolidating my thoughts from other threads . . .- Taylor got a 3-year, $15 million contract extension. That's a lot of money to have sitting on the sideline.- Almost 50% of all RB that have scored 15 TD in YEAR X have scored single digit TD in YEAR X + 1 -- and those were players that had full time work loads.- Drew was off the chart in terms of ypc and TD% last year, neither of which I think he'll repeat. The Jags rushing totals were nowhere near as high in the years preceding last year. Taylor is still around and will get a decent chunk of the workload. Some of the RB production could just evaporate.- The Jags had almost 600 rushing yards in two games against the Colts -- another thing that I don't see happening again.- JAX implementing a more VERTICAL offense. The team was Top 5 in rushing categories but Bottom 5 in passing categories -- and their record suffered as a result.- Many other players that posted exceptionally high ypc with at least 100 carries in a season did not turn into uber studs including Keith Lincoln, Mercury Morris, Paul Lowe, Hokie Gajan, Ted McKnight, John David Crow, Napolen Kaufman, Abner Haynes, Don Calhoun, Bo Jackson, Amos Marsh, and Brad Hubbert.- Of the 19 players that scored 15 times in under 250 touches, again there were many that were not uber studs in the future: John David Crow, Pete Banaszak, Dan Reeves, Billy Cannon, Derrick Fenner, Cleveland Gary, Cookie Gilchrist, David Sims, Sherman Smith. and Ickey Woods.- The 06 Jags RBs totalled 423.9 fantasy poionts. The 05 RBs totalled 287.6. I happen to think that the 07 version will be closer to the 05 totals than the 06 ones.- People keep bashing Fred Taylor like he's Eddie George. Taylor set career highs in ypc and ypr last year and averaged 93 yards from scrimmage per game last season. He's one of only 5 RB in the past 15 years to have a 5.0/10.0 ypc/ypr with at least 200 carries and 20 receptions (along with Portis, Faulk, Hearst, and LJohnson).- Last year was one of few times where the minority share holder outranked the majority shareholder of the RB workload from the same team.- The Jags official website just had an interview with MJD, who said:
Fred Taylor, of course, is the team’s featured running back. Jones-Drew is Taylor’s complement and the two came within 69 yards last season of becoming only the fifth pair in NFL history to each rush for 1,000 yards in a season.Taylor had one of his best seasons last year. His 1,146 yards rushing came at a 5.0 yards-per-carry clip, and Jones-Drew’s presence was a big factor in Taylor still having fresh legs late in the season. In the “senior years” of his career, Taylor welcomes the help. Sharing the load should help extend his career.“When Fred’s time comes, I’ll be ready to take over,” Jones-Drew said.Being ready at all times is something in which Jones-Drew prides himself. He also shared time at UCLA, which was probably the product of his diminutive size. A guy who’s 5-7 isn’t supposed to be durable enough to carry the load.“It’s hard to get into a rhythm,” he said of having to come off the bench for a few carries here and there. “You have to make plays right away. That’s what I learned at UCLA. It helped me out.”
This does not sound like a phasing out of Taylor any time soon.- In the games Leftwich has played he's averaged 31.3 passing attempts per game. That works out to 500 passing attemtps in a 16-game season. Last year the Jags had 446 passing attempts and seemed to run more with Garrard at QB. If Leftwich is able to stay in the lineup I think by default they will run less regardless if they try to make big strides in the passing game.- If I were to guess, I suspect we will see more of a split like 2004 (514 passing attempts and 446 rushing attempts). That's 75 fewer rushing attempts and I'm not sure who would lose out if that were to happen.For the record, I *AM NOT* anti Jones-Drew. I just don't like his situation as currently constituted. IMO, he will need a lot more of the workload to rank where many people are ranking or projecting him. That certainly could happen with an early season injury to Taylor, but for my money taking essentially a back up (maybe better defined as a RB at a minimum receiving less than half of the workload) is a risky proposition. In a 0 PPR redraft league, I've been saying the same thing about Reggie Bush.
How the hell do you come up with that? Magic 8-ball?
