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Player Spotlight: Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Mike Wallace, WR, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: Mike Wallace Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
  • FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

pghrob

Hail to the Chief
Wallace will continue to play the deep threat role he held as a Steeler. Tannehill is more than capable on hitting him with deep passes and quick strikes and Wallace's speed will permit him him to break free for big play TD's. There is no reason to think the Dolphins offense won't be on par or even exceedingly better than it was last year. Their offensive skill positions are improved. Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson are respectable WRs and Keller is an improvement over Fasano that should permit occasional opportunities for Wallace to see single coverage against undermatched and slower corners without safety help.

Looking forward to seeing how Joe Philbin uses his new weapon.

79 receptions 1250 yards and 9 tds

15 rushes 200 yards

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
After signing with Miami I was not excited about Wallace, but the more I think about it, the more I think my gut reaction was wrong. First, I expected his ADP to be high. Second, this team probably won't pass the ball a whole lot. Third, he seems more versatile than he's given credit for, but still not the well rounded WR you'd want to rely on every week.

But his ADP is currently just WR23, the Dolphins seem content to roll with a relative unknown in Miller as their RB1 (this is to say they may end up forcing themselves to rely on the pass), and it has been shown that Tannehill was one of the more accurate deep passers in the NFL in his rookie season (ranking 7th in the NFL on comp % on passes over 20 yards) so Wallace doesn't have to be versatile to produce.

On just 98 targets in 2010, Wallace finished WR5 and he finished WR9 on just 113 targets in 2011. Last year was obviously disappointing with his holdout affecting him learning the new offense, but an even bigger factor was the actual offense. Haley's dink and dunk system did not play to Wallace's strengths at all as can be seen in his drastic drop to 13.1 ypr (18.7 career average before that). Despite this, he still finished WR24 on 117 targets.

Given what they paid him and the lack of another big name WR on the roster, I expect Miami to do their best to utilize their new weapon. The only question mark in my mind is the offensive line. If the line can keep Tannehill upright long enough to get the ball off, I think Wallace will thrive. If Tannehill actually improves his already deep accuracy then Wallace will easily crack the top 12. But for now we don't need to worry about that. Given his WR24 finish last year, I think Wallace is a shoe-in to meet or exceed his WR23 price tag this year. I suspect I'll have him on a lot of teams as I like him a lot better than most of the guys going before him.

Here are WRs 15-23:

Welker

Wayne

Colston

Nicks

Bowe

Decker

Garcon

Amendola

Wallace

To me, this is a no brainer. A lot of those guys have greater questions marks (offensive and/or injury) than Wallace without the upside.

ETA: projection

120 targets x 62.5% = 75 rec x 16 ypr = 1200 yds 9 TD

 
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fightingillini

Footballguy
FF Ninja said:
After signing with Miami I was not excited about Wallace, but the more I think about it, the more I think my gut reaction was wrong. First, I expected his ADP to be high. Second, this team probably won't pass the ball a whole lot. Third, he seems more versatile than he's given credit for, but still not the well rounded WR you'd want to rely on every week.

But his ADP is currently just WR23, the Dolphins seem content to roll with a relative unknown in Miller as their RB1 (this is to say they may end up forcing themselves to rely on the pass), and it has been shown that Tannehill was one of the more accurate deep passers in the NFL in his rookie season (ranking 7th in the NFL on comp % on passes over 20 yards) so Wallace doesn't have to be versatile to produce.

On just 98 targets in 2010, Wallace finished WR5 and he finished WR9 on just 113 targets in 2011. Last year was obviously disappointing with his holdout affecting him learning the new offense, but an even bigger factor was the actual offense. Haley's dink and dunk system did not play to Wallace's strengths at all as can be seen in his drastic drop to 13.1 ypr (18.7 career average before that). Despite this, he still finished WR24 on 117 targets.

Given what they paid him and the lack of another big name WR on the roster, I expect Miami to do their best to utilize their new weapon. The only question mark in my mind is the offensive line. If the line can keep Tannehill upright long enough to get the ball off, I think Wallace will thrive. If Tannehill actually improves his already deep accuracy then Wallace will easily crack the top 12. But for now we don't need to worry about that. Given his WR24 finish last year, I think Wallace is a shoe-in to meet or exceed his WR23 price tag this year. I suspect I'll have him on a lot of teams as I like him a lot better than most of the guys going before him.

Here are WRs 15-23:

Welker

Wayne

Colston

Nicks

Bowe

Decker

Garcon

Amendola

Wallace

To me, this is a no brainer. A lot of those guys have greater questions marks (offensive and/or injury) than Wallace without the upside.

ETA: projection

120 targets x 62.5% = 75 rec x 16 ypr = 1200 yds 9 TD
Good post.

While my projection is 72/1100/7 for Wallace, my thoughts are similar to FF Ninja. He has a lot of upside and, while I have worried about WRs changing teams, I think Wallace gets enough targets to be a decent WR2.

Out of the WRs listed, I would rank Bowe, Wayne and Colston and Nicks ahead of Wallace. Welker and Decker are going to eat into each other's production......Garcon and Amendola are big injury risks. Which means I have Wallace in the WR18-20 range, which is good given his price tag. Hartline is decent enough to where Wallace isn't going to constantly see double teams this year.

Miami is going to miss Reggie Bush a lot this year, so I can see MIA struggling to run the ball this year.

 
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Borden

Footballguy
A second year QB plus WR diva could be an issue. Wallace has been known to drop passes, take the odd penalty that he shouldn't have and complain about not getting the ball enough. Miller, despite his fantasy value, isn't a superstar that is going to demand defenses focus on him. If things don't go well how fast could this entire offense snowball into embarrassment?

The big upside of Wallace to me is that he doesn't get injured. Anyone who plays in the AFC North for 3 full seasons and doesn't miss any significant time is a durable player to me. So, a guy that can score on any given play and plays every game is solid pick 5th round pick.

I think his ADP is roughly where it should be. Torrey Smith is the next WR to go after Wallace and I would rather have Smith just because Smith is in a better situation. However, Nicks and Amendola are the two that go before Wallace and you could argue that just because of injury concerns Wallace is the better pick. So depending on personal risk/reward view points these guys are all in the same tier just in a varying order.

70/1100/9

 

meyerj31

Footballguy
A second year QB plus WR diva could be an issue. Wallace has been known to drop passes, take the odd penalty that he shouldn't have and complain about not getting the ball enough. Miller, despite his fantasy value, isn't a superstar that is going to demand defenses focus on him. If things don't go well how fast could this entire offense snowball into embarrassment?

The big upside of Wallace to me is that he doesn't get injured. Anyone who plays in the AFC North for 3 full seasons and doesn't miss any significant time is a durable player to me. So, a guy that can score on any given play and plays every game is solid pick 5th round pick.

I think his ADP is roughly where it should be. Torrey Smith is the next WR to go after Wallace and I would rather have Smith just because Smith is in a better situation. However, Nicks and Amendola are the two that go before Wallace and you could argue that just because of injury concerns Wallace is the better pick. So depending on personal risk/reward view points these guys are all in the same tier just in a varying order.

70/1100/9
+1

I think he's right priced right now at around WR24. His specialty is the deep ball and that hurts in PPR leagues (the only ones I play) so I'm not going to be happy if I have to take him as my WR2. If I can get him as a WR3, absolutely. The QB play is going to hurt him, even if Tannehill is on the upswing. People don't give Big Ben enough credit. QBs make the WRs, and in Ben's case, he kept plays alive forever to get Wallace the ball. I don't see Wallace achieving his best seasons with Pittsburgh so I plant him as a solid WR3 with high-WR2 upside.

 
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nirad3

Footballguy
A second year QB plus WR diva could be an issue. Wallace has been known to drop passes, take the odd penalty that he shouldn't have and complain about not getting the ball enough. Miller, despite his fantasy value, isn't a superstar that is going to demand defenses focus on him. If things don't go well how fast could this entire offense snowball into embarrassment?

The big upside of Wallace to me is that he doesn't get injured. Anyone who plays in the AFC North for 3 full seasons and doesn't miss any significant time is a durable player to me. So, a guy that can score on any given play and plays every game is solid pick 5th round pick.

I think his ADP is roughly where it should be. Torrey Smith is the next WR to go after Wallace and I would rather have Smith just because Smith is in a better situation. However, Nicks and Amendola are the two that go before Wallace and you could argue that just because of injury concerns Wallace is the better pick. So depending on personal risk/reward view points these guys are all in the same tier just in a varying order.

70/1100/9
+1

I think he's right priced right now at around WR24. His specialty is the deep ball and that hurts in PPR leagues (the only ones I play) so I'm not going to be happy if I have to take him as my WR2. If I can get him as a WR3, absolutely. The QB play is going to hurt him, even if Tannehill is on the upswing. People don't give Big Ben enough credit. QBs also make the WRs.
Agree here, would be iffy on him as my WR2 but pretty thrilled as WR3.

I don't think he tops 70-75 catches and have him in the 1,000-1,000 range with 8 scores.

 

ol blues

Footballguy
This is a difficult call. Wallace is currently priced at the end of the WR2s which seems like a bargain in the Miami offense. He brings precisely what Miami needs to loosen up defenses for underneath routes for Gibson, Hartline, Miller, and Keller (or whoever beats him out). But it's difficult to see how strong Wallace's numbers will be as Tannehill's significant growth is critical to consistent production by Wallace. I likely will draft him onto some teams, but, despite his superior skills and opportunity over,e.g., Torrey Smith (the next in WR APD), I'm not reaching for him.

The far more interesting question is how the Steelers' offense fares absent Wallace. Yes, Haley's short passing game isn't ideally suited to Wallace's skills, but having the defenses cheating up to the line may make for a very long season for the Steelers' O.

 

Alex P Keaton

Footballguy
This is a difficult call. Wallace is currently priced at the end of the WR2s which seems like a bargain in the Miami offense. He brings precisely what Miami needs to loosen up defenses for underneath routes for Gibson, Hartline, Miller, and Keller (or whoever beats him out). But it's difficult to see how strong Wallace's numbers will be as Tannehill's significant growth is critical to consistent production by Wallace. I likely will draft him onto some teams, but, despite his superior skills and opportunity over,e.g., Torrey Smith (the next in WR APD), I'm not reaching for him.

The far more interesting question is how the Steelers' offense fares absent Wallace. Yes, Haley's short passing game isn't ideally suited to Wallace's skills, but having the defenses cheating up to the line may make for a very long season for the Steelers' O.
This is what I struggle with in the Wallace conversations. Unlike Torrey Smith, who truly is only a deep ball threat, Wallace actually knows how to run routes and get open for short and intermediate throws. Additionally, Miami will likely throw the ball a fair amount - while Baltimore should be a more evenly balanced offense - which means more opportunities for Wallace than Torrey.

Just one of those examples where I don't see eye-to-eye with the common wisdom. I expect Wallace to finish a good 6-8 spots higher than Torrey.

 
Difficult read to make in June, but I do not think Wallace will have the kind of big plays he did in Pittsburgh. He will need to be used more in underneath crossing patterns to use his speed, not just going deep and throwing him the ball. I think Wallace is a good enough route runner to do this and think he'll be pretty solid in Miami.

75 catches, 1080 yards, 8 tds

 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
seems overpriced/overvalued to me.for my money, if I'm going to take a chance on a guy with big upside potential, that guy is Kenny Britt..

Wallace seems like nothing more than a remake of Johnny Morton, i.e., a decent yet unspectacular WR who catches about 70 balls, barely scratches 1000 yards , and scores 4-5 TD's/yr..

not unlike Santonio Holmes with NYJ..

Wallace makes a solid #3/4 WR but nothing more IMO..

70-910-5...13 ypc..

potential bust of the year candidate( relative to his ADP.)

I'd rather take a flyer on Reuben Randle,given Nicks' propensity to get hurt..

 

Bayhawks

Footballguy
A second year QB plus WR diva could be an issue. Wallace has been known to drop passes, take the odd penalty that he shouldn't have and complain about not getting the ball enough.
1) How is Wallace a "WR diva?"

2) "been known to drop passes;" before last season, Wallace had dropped only 2.9% of his targets in his 1st 3 seasons. Last year seems like the exception, not the rule.

3) "take the odd penalty?" I'm not sure what that means. He takes penalties from time to time, just as any other NFL WR (or player for that matter) does. Do you have some data that shows he is penalized more than other WRs, or for different (odd) infractions?

4) "complains about not getting the ball enough;" I can't find any quotes, articles, or reports of this happening in his 4 year career. Do you have any links to these complaints?

I don't know if I agree with the projections calling for 1200+ yards, but I don't think the reasons you give would be reasons he doesn't hit that number. I think it will be more a combination of a 2nd year QB, new offense (for Wallace to learn), and an offense that hasn't "gelled" yet.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
seems overpriced/overvalued to me.for my money, if I'm going to take a chance on a guy with big upside potential, that guy is Kenny Britt..

Wallace seems like nothing more than a remake of Johnny Morton, i.e., a decent yet unspectacular WR who catches about 70 balls, barely scratches 1000 yards , and scores 4-5 TD's/yr..

not unlike Santonio Holmes with NYJ..

Wallace makes a solid #3/4 WR but nothing more IMO..

70-910-5...13 ypc..

potential bust of the year candidate( relative to his ADP.)

I'd rather take a flyer on Reuben Randle,given Nicks' propensity to get hurt..
In just 15 games, he caught 64 passes and finished WR24 last year. I also don't think Miami is going to run Haley's dink and dunk offense, so his ypr should spring up from last year's 13 to something in the 16 range. So it appears he is unlikely to finish lower than his ADP, much less be a bust of the year. To be the bust of the year with an ADP as low as WR23, he'd have to finish with less than 40 catches and still, there will likely be a much bigger bust than that.

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
Bunch of people projecting 8 - 10 TDs for Wallace -- the Dolphins threw for only 13 as a team last year and are going to be integrating a bunch of new parts. I have a hard time seeing any Miami player coming close to 10 receiving TDs.

 

JPeso

Footballguy
Bunch of people projecting 8 - 10 TDs for Wallace -- the Dolphins threw for only 13 as a team last year and are going to be integrating a bunch of new parts. I have a hard time seeing any Miami player coming close to 10 receiving TDs.
Insert age old adage..what came first?

They got this cat down there that can really fling it.

 

Alex P Keaton

Footballguy
FF Ninja said:
seems overpriced/overvalued to me.for my money, if I'm going to take a chance on a guy with big upside potential, that guy is Kenny Britt..

Wallace seems like nothing more than a remake of Johnny Morton, i.e., a decent yet unspectacular WR who catches about 70 balls, barely scratches 1000 yards , and scores 4-5 TD's/yr..

not unlike Santonio Holmes with NYJ..

Wallace makes a solid #3/4 WR but nothing more IMO..

70-910-5...13 ypc..

potential bust of the year candidate( relative to his ADP.)

I'd rather take a flyer on Reuben Randle,given Nicks' propensity to get hurt..
In just 15 games, he caught 64 passes and finished WR24 last year. I also don't think Miami is going to run Haley's dink and dunk offense, so his ypr should spring up from last year's 13 to something in the 16 range. So it appears he is unlikely to finish lower than his ADP, much less be a bust of the year. To be the bust of the year with an ADP as low as WR23, he'd have to finish with less than 40 catches and still, there will likely be a much bigger bust than that.
Not to nitpick, but you realize there are only 16 games in a season, right? So writing "in just 15 games" really isn't as amazing or shocking as you implied, no? I mean, if you give him 1 more game and pro-rate stats, what would he have finished last year? WR21?

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
FF Ninja said:
seems overpriced/overvalued to me.for my money, if I'm going to take a chance on a guy with big upside potential, that guy is Kenny Britt..

Wallace seems like nothing more than a remake of Johnny Morton, i.e., a decent yet unspectacular WR who catches about 70 balls, barely scratches 1000 yards , and scores 4-5 TD's/yr..

not unlike Santonio Holmes with NYJ..

Wallace makes a solid #3/4 WR but nothing more IMO..

70-910-5...13 ypc..

potential bust of the year candidate( relative to his ADP.)

I'd rather take a flyer on Reuben Randle,given Nicks' propensity to get hurt..
In just 15 games, he caught 64 passes and finished WR24 last year. I also don't think Miami is going to run Haley's dink and dunk offense, so his ypr should spring up from last year's 13 to something in the 16 range. So it appears he is unlikely to finish lower than his ADP, much less be a bust of the year. To be the bust of the year with an ADP as low as WR23, he'd have to finish with less than 40 catches and still, there will likely be a much bigger bust than that.
Not to nitpick, but you realize there are only 16 games in a season, right? So writing "in just 15 games" really isn't as amazing or shocking as you implied, no? I mean, if you give him 1 more game and pro-rate stats, what would he have finished last year? WR21?
You do realize that we're on a fantasy football board where EVERYONE realizes there are 16 games, right? In no way was I implying that this was amazing or shocking. I was simply pointing out that he missed a game, which does knock you down the board a few spots and reduces receptions. Just one or two missed games can surprising have a pretty decent impact on a player's ADP the next year due to all the people who just look at last year's finish and/or season stats.

Had he kept his pace (133 fp/15 x 16 = 142 fp) then he'd have finished WR20 with 68 receptions. And this was after holding out of training camp (IIRC) and learning a completely new offense which led to a career low ypr.

So I really don't see how anyone could say that he's a WR3/WR4. Last year he was clearly unhappy and mailing it in and he still finished as WR2. This year he's got another mobile QB with a strong arm, who is already a better deep passer than Ben was last year, and a team who is invested in him - so he's happy and they see him as their clear cut WR1. My initial reaction to the signing was negative, but I've come full circle. I think he's not only a good value play, but one of the guys with the most upside. He's already got two top 10 finishes in his 4 year career. How many guys have that kind of resume around his ADP?

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
FF Ninja said:
seems overpriced/overvalued to me.for my money, if I'm going to take a chance on a guy with big upside potential, that guy is Kenny Britt..

Wallace seems like nothing more than a remake of Johnny Morton, i.e., a decent yet unspectacular WR who catches about 70 balls, barely scratches 1000 yards , and scores 4-5 TD's/yr..

not unlike Santonio Holmes with NYJ..

Wallace makes a solid #3/4 WR but nothing more IMO..

70-910-5...13 ypc..

potential bust of the year candidate( relative to his ADP.)

I'd rather take a flyer on Reuben Randle,given Nicks' propensity to get hurt..
In just 15 games, he caught 64 passes and finished WR24 last year. I also don't think Miami is going to run Haley's dink and dunk offense, so his ypr should spring up from last year's 13 to something in the 16 range. So it appears he is unlikely to finish lower than his ADP, much less be a bust of the year. To be the bust of the year with an ADP as low as WR23, he'd have to finish with less than 40 catches and still, there will likely be a much bigger bust than that.
Not to nitpick, but you realize there are only 16 games in a season, right? So writing "in just 15 games" really isn't as amazing or shocking as you implied, no? I mean, if you give him 1 more game and pro-rate stats, what would he have finished last year? WR21?
You do realize that we're on a fantasy football board where EVERYONE realizes there are 16 games, right? In no way was I implying that this was amazing or shocking. I was simply pointing out that he missed a game, which does knock you down the board a few spots and reduces receptions. Just one or two missed games can surprising have a pretty decent impact on a player's ADP the next year due to all the people who just look at last year's finish and/or season stats.

Had he kept his pace (133 fp/15 x 16 = 142 fp) then he'd have finished WR20 with 68 receptions. And this was after holding out of training camp (IIRC) and learning a completely new offense which led to a career low ypr.

So I really don't see how anyone could say that he's a WR3/WR4. Last year he was clearly unhappy and mailing it in and he still finished as WR2. This year he's got another mobile QB with a strong arm, who is already a better deep passer than Ben was last year, and a team who is invested in him - so he's happy and they see him as their clear cut WR1. My initial reaction to the signing was negative, but I've come full circle. I think he's not only a good value play, but one of the guys with the most upside. He's already got two top 10 finishes in his 4 year career. How many guys have that kind of resume around his ADP?
Depends on your thoughts on Tannehill and on the Dolphins as a team IMO. Mike is what he is; anyone who doubts that he has the talent to finish as a fantasy WR1 in the right system obviously missed 2010 and 2011.

Granted, I didn't watch a ton of Miami football last year, but based on his stats last year, Tannehill was nothing to get super excited about, as far as fantasy football in 2013. Solid rookie year? Absolutely, but nothing that screams "break out 2013 stud" from where I'm sitting. Further, I'm not sure that adding Wallace and Keller will offset the losses of Jake Long, Reggie Bush, and Davone Bess, and even if those two are a net improvement, it will likely take some time for all of the new pieces to come together.

I think Mike is being drafted right about where he should be -- borderline WR2 / WR3. I don't trust his team or QB enough to take him any higher than that.

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Wallace seems like nothing more than a remake of Johnny Morton, i.e., a decent yet unspectacular WR who catches about 70 balls, barely scratches 1000 yards , and scores 4-5 TD's/yr..
He's easily surpassed 1,000 yards in 2 of the last 3 seasons (reaching as high as 1,257) - and scored 10, 8 and 8 TDs the last three seasons. Other than that you're spot on.

 

5-ish Finkle

Footballguy
Anyone else consider Hartline an option for leading the team in targets and receptions?
Receptions? Maybe, depending on how often coverage is rolled to Wallace and if Hartline could be the primary beneficiary on short stuff/how they actually playcall, but I'd say it's unlikely.

Targets? Very, very, very unlikely. I expect they didn't overpay Wallace to be a decoy. He will be targeted frequently.

I've got him at 130-135 targets, 70-75 catches, 1050-1175 yards, 6-7 TDs. As long as his speed holds he's going to be able to run past a lot of defenses, but he's still a limited technical receiver. He only runs a couple of routes well and he has a bad habit of making his drops on the easiest of catches(e.g. he's 5-10 yards behind the D for a sure touchdown, etc). He also just got paid...and it concerns me he may be a guy who may care about that than football. Maybe not, but it's buzzing in the back of my head on Mike. He'll have to prove to me he isn't just about being "Young Money" this season.

All told, I think he's going to do fine, as the Dolphins will certainly be trying to work the ball to him, but Tannehill isn't Roethlisberger regardless of whether he throws a better deep ball. I don't see Wallace having a 13 YPC again,but I don't see him challenging 20 YPC either. He could certainly eclipse these numbers if the Dolphins offense performs better than I'm expecting, but if Mike underperforms a bit it wouldn't be the first time a "name" WR went to a new offense and struggled a bit the first year. He'll probably do better in '14.

I basically see him putting up the same/slightly better numbers as Hartline did in '12, but with more TDs. He should be one of the better WR2s if he stays healthy. I suppose he could wind up a low end WR1 if he cracked double digit TDs, but I just don't see it happening. I could see him flaming out because he got paid too, as far as that goes, but don't really expect that either.

 
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Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Coeur de Lion said:
Bunch of people projecting 8 - 10 TDs for Wallace -- the Dolphins threw for only 13 as a team last year and are going to be integrating a bunch of new parts. I have a hard time seeing any Miami player coming close to 10 receiving TDs.
Tannehill was a rookie QB with Brian Hartline as his top option.

I think we should expect some improvement from Tannelhill based on experience, and the fact that Wallace has the capability to dominate a game with his speed. Just Wallace drawing attention should open the rest of the offense up a bit - and personally I think Keller was a good signing as well. He can play, but injuries and a bad situation have held him in check a bit.

 
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FF Ninja

Footballguy
Depends on your thoughts on Tannehill and on the Dolphins as a team IMO. Mike is what he is; anyone who doubts that he has the talent to finish as a fantasy WR1 in the right system obviously missed 2010 and 2011.

Granted, I didn't watch a ton of Miami football last year, but based on his stats last year, Tannehill was nothing to get super excited about, as far as fantasy football in 2013. Solid rookie year? Absolutely, but nothing that screams "break out 2013 stud" from where I'm sitting. Further, I'm not sure that adding Wallace and Keller will offset the losses of Jake Long, Reggie Bush, and Davone Bess, and even if those two are a net improvement, it will likely take some time for all of the new pieces to come together.

I think Mike is being drafted right about where he should be -- borderline WR2 / WR3. I don't trust his team or QB enough to take him any higher than that.
I thought a solid rookie year was a reason to get excited about a second year. They drafted him to let him sit and learn. Only due to injuries and him winning the QB competition with Moore did he start week 1, so his production last year was a pleasant surprise yet people expect him to not improve. Weird.

I initially thought the same thing you did about Long, but after reading up on it, it turns out he's been declining as a player for some reason and was injured a lot of last year, so while they are losing some talent, it won't feel any different than last year since his impact was so minimal (if not negative). I think Bush is a good RB, but I don't think his loss will affect Tannehill. As for Bess, he had trusty hands but other than that he was just a guy.

Wallace/Hartline/Keller viewed as a whole is probably an average NFL unit, but it is miles ahead of Hartline/Bess/Fasano that the rookie was throwing to last year.

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
Depends on your thoughts on Tannehill and on the Dolphins as a team IMO. Mike is what he is; anyone who doubts that he has the talent to

finish as a fantasy WR1 in the right system obviously missed 2010 and 2011.

Granted, I didn't watch a ton of Miami football last year, but based on his stats last year, Tannehill was nothing to get super excited about, as far as fantasy football in 2013. Solid rookie year? Absolutely, but nothing that screams "break out 2013 stud" from where I'm sitting. Further, I'm not sure that adding Wallace and Keller will offset the losses of Jake Long, Reggie Bush, and Davone Bess, and even if those two are a net improvement, it will likely take some time for all of the new pieces to come together.

I think Mike is being drafted right about where he should be -- borderline WR2 / WR3. I don't trust his team or QB enough to take him any higher than that.
I thought a solid rookie year was a reason to get excited about a second year. They drafted him to let him sit and learn. Only due to injuries and him winning the QB competition with Moore did he start week 1, so his production last year was a pleasant surprise yet people expect him to not improve. Weird.
I do expect Tannehill to improve. I don't expect him to double the amount of TD passes that he threw last year, which is roughly what would need to happen for Wallace to approach 10 scores. Even the very best NFL receivers, which IMO Mike Wallace is not, generally don't catch more than 35-40% of a team's total TD passes.

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
By chasing the free agent dollars of Miami, Mike Wallace has upped the expectation level in terms of his performance from one of the best big play WR’s in the NFL to #1 go-to WR. And for as special as Wallace has been thus far in his career with regard to producing the big play…there is a big difference between the two roles and there are some viable question marks as to whether he’ll be able to assume the step up in terms of expectations.

In Pittsburgh, Wallace was able to come into a situation with an established big-time QB and grow into a significant role on the Pittsburgh Steelers, one of the most stable organizations in the NFL, if not professional sports. Laden with veteran presences and leadership throughout the roster…Wallace could simply go out, develop his skills and play football. In Miami, he’ll be expected to work with a young QB. Take responsibility as far as developing a rapport with Ryan Tannehill…perhaps mold his talents and his game around what Tannehill does will…not vice-versa where the Steelers were able to situationally find ways to exploit Wallace’s ability to get deep.

When the 2011 season started, Wallace exploded out of the gates. During his first 7 games that season:

36 Receptions
50 Targets
730 Yards
5 TD’s.


It was truly a remarkable start and was a testament simply to how dangerous Wallace had become. To post a 20.3 YPR with 104 YPG average while catching a ridiculous 72% of his targets. Unreal. However, since then…a span of 24 games?

100 Receptions
182 Targets
1299 Yards
11 TD’s


…in addition, he’s posted just 2 100- yard games in that timeframe. What worries me about Wallace is he’s leaving a QB who ranks 1) 6th all-time in Yards/Attempt with 7.9 and 12th all-time in Completion% at 63.1`% for a 2nd year QB who is still excruciatingly raw and 2) he failed to adjust to increased levels of defensive attention with pieces in place that from my POV were better than the ones he now has around him.

The issue I see is that when Wallace didn’t produce to the levels he shown in 2010/2011 when he established himself as truly one of the games best deep threat, no one probably thought they still weren’t getting their moneys worth from his 3rd round rookie contract. But now at an average value of $13M/year? I don’t doubt that Wallace’s presence will open up the offense for other members of the Dolphins to make more of an impact. But can Wallace open things up for Wallace in his new surroundings? I’m skeptical since he struggled to do so in a much more favorable environment. If there is one thing going for Wallace in terms of pressure, Miami hasn’t exactly been Dolphin crazy these last few years. Underperformance might be greeted more by indifference by the locals versus outrage.

Vincent Jackson changed teams and systems last year. Despite not being a player who had historically been targeted heavily, Jackson possessed some physical characteristics and ball skills that seemed to fit the profile of go-to receiver better than does Wallace. As such, Jackson put up career high numbers in terms of targets/receptions/yards despite the downgrade in QB (Rivers-to-Freeman). But I just see the situation in Miami as one that’s been hastily put together by a front office that has nothing to lose by swinging for the fences and Wallace looks to be a guy that DC’s around the NFL now account for with increased attention and because of it, Wallace has not been able to truly make the jump to go-to guy.

Prediction: 62 Reception 945 Receiving Yards, 6 TD’s; 7 Rushes 29 Rushing Yards 0 TD’s.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Depends on your thoughts on Tannehill and on the Dolphins as a team IMO. Mike is what he is; anyone who doubts that he has the talent to

finish as a fantasy WR1 in the right system obviously missed 2010 and 2011.

Granted, I didn't watch a ton of Miami football last year, but based on his stats last year, Tannehill was nothing to get super excited about, as far as fantasy football in 2013. Solid rookie year? Absolutely, but nothing that screams "break out 2013 stud" from where I'm sitting. Further, I'm not sure that adding Wallace and Keller will offset the losses of Jake Long, Reggie Bush, and Davone Bess, and even if those two are a net improvement, it will likely take some time for all of the new pieces to come together.

I think Mike is being drafted right about where he should be -- borderline WR2 / WR3. I don't trust his team or QB enough to take him any higher than that.
I thought a solid rookie year was a reason to get excited about a second year. They drafted him to let him sit and learn. Only due to injuries and him winning the QB competition with Moore did he start week 1, so his production last year was a pleasant surprise yet people expect him to not improve. Weird.
I do expect Tannehill to improve. I don't expect him to double the amount of TD passes that he threw last year, which is roughly what would need to happen for Wallace to approach 10 scores. Even the very best NFL receivers, which IMO Mike Wallace is not, generally don't catch more than 35-40% of a team's total TD passes.
Well, I think Tannehill's in a unique situation. Last year he only threw 484 passes and, for one reason or another, his #1 option (27% of his passes) only managed 1 TD on 74 receptions. That seems kind of fluky to me. Given Wallace's ability to get past coverage and Tannehill's surprising deep accuracy last year, I think this is one of those rare situations where we do see a jump in Tannehill's TD numbers and Wallace scoring a large portion of the team TDs.

But I agree, 35-40% is rare. You might be interested to know that Mike Wallace had 10 touchdowns in 2010 when Pit only passed for 20 touchdowns. He had 8 the next year when Pit only passed for 21. Last year, he had 8 of 22 (Ben threw 3 more in week 17 that Wallace wasn't present for). So in the past 3 years he's at 41%. So he fits your definition of the very best receivers by this metric.

For his career, he scores 1 TD every 7.3 receptions. If he had moved on to a team with a QB with a weaker arm and/or poor deep accuracy, I'd just avoid Wallace, but the more I think about the more I think this is a great match.

 

Mr Non Sequitur

Footballguy
The loss of Jake Long at Left Tackle and the signing of Tyson Clabo at Right Tackle playing in a new blocking scheme thus pushing Jaime Martin to Left Tackle, a position he is woefully under skilled right now to play, this should be the concern of many.

Why does it matter who is playing Tackle, right? Well it matters a lot in pass protection because even though Wallace is fast, Tannehill still must have time in the pocket to deliver the football and I am afraid Miami is going to be giving up a lot of sacks on the end spots. Tannehill does have some nimble feet but he can't be expected to buy time on a continuous basis. DEs and blitzing OLBs are going to force Tannehill to check down a lot to his 2nd and 3rd options. Wallace will have his moments but he is not going to be anywhere close to WR1 numbers.

4 catches a week on avg would put him at 64/950/6 TD. He won't make that much difference for owners outside of a couple big games. Brian Hartline about 6-7 rounds later is a much better value in PPR leagues. They paid him $31m in the off season and he is coming off his first 1,000 yd season with a rookie QB, they already have some chemistry, that's your target on the Miami Dolphins offense IMO.

 

HurryUpSundays

Footballguy
Coeur de Lion said:
Bunch of people projecting 8 - 10 TDs for Wallace -- the Dolphins threw for only 13 as a team last year and are going to be integrating a bunch of new parts. I have a hard time seeing any Miami player coming close to 10 receiving TDs.
Tannehill was a rookie QB with Brian Hartline as his top option.

I think we should expect some improvement from Tannelhill based on experience, and the fact that Wallace has the capability to dominate a game with his speed. Just Wallace drawing attention should open the rest of the offense up a bit - and personally I think Keller was a good signing as well. He can play, but injuries and a bad situation have held him in check a bit.
Dominate a game with his speed?

With the young, questionable pieces surrounding him, and that same bad situation you put Keller under, I just don't see Wallace dominating games. Gonna be interesting to see how well they cater to his strengths.

 

Catbird

Footballguy
Coeur de Lion said:
Bunch of people projecting 8 - 10 TDs for Wallace -- the Dolphins threw for only 13 as a team last year and are going to be integrating a bunch of new parts. I have a hard time seeing any Miami player coming close to 10 receiving TDs.
Depends on your thoughts on Tannehill and on the Dolphins as a team IMO. Mike is what he is; anyone who doubts that he has the talent to

finish as a fantasy WR1 in the right system obviously missed 2010 and 2011.

Granted, I didn't watch a ton of Miami football last year, but based on his stats last year, Tannehill was nothing to get super excited about, as far as fantasy football in 2013. Solid rookie year? Absolutely, but nothing that screams "break out 2013 stud" from where I'm sitting. Further, I'm not sure that adding Wallace and Keller will offset the losses of Jake Long, Reggie Bush, and Davone Bess, and even if those two are a net improvement, it will likely take some time for all of the new pieces to come together.

I think Mike is being drafted right about where he should be -- borderline WR2 / WR3. I don't trust his team or QB enough to take him any higher than that.
I thought a solid rookie year was a reason to get excited about a second year. They drafted him to let him sit and learn. Only due to injuries and him winning the QB competition with Moore did he start week 1, so his production last year was a pleasant surprise yet people expect him to not improve. Weird.
I do expect Tannehill to improve. I don't expect him to double the amount of TD passes that he threw last year, which is roughly what would need to happen for Wallace to approach 10 scores. Even the very best NFL receivers, which IMO Mike Wallace is not, generally don't catch more than 35-40% of a team's total TD passes.

In your routine negativity, you claim a bunch of people in the thread project 8-10 TDs for Wallace and then go on the argue that a lot will have to happen for him to get that expected 10. The reality is not 1 of 33 posts projects 10 or more TDs. Don't set up a straw man that you can later claim you knocked down. Some prediction were for 9. Lets stick with that as the extreme upper end projected by anyone.

The keys people seem to be missing, to me, are that Long didn't play all that much last year and the OL should be no worse, assuming health maybe better, than what they presented in a patchwork last year. The Dolphins let Reggie go and didn't draft a RB because they think they have a guy as good or better in Miller. Tannehill started running more and more effectively as the year went on. Team will have to pay attention to the run. Tannehill has the wheels to buy time and great pocket awareness and mobility to extend plays (like Ben, while Wallace gets open deep). The Dolphins also won't be tightening down games like PIT was, holding on to 17-10 leads. More likely they will be throwing a lot late in an effort to catch up - or at least more so than the Steelers. And Wallace is good on slants and one quick move outs in addition to the long ball. He isn't a quickly identified and extinguished one trick pony. He has years being a #1, facing the elite defenders and still was getting his 1,200 and, yes, 8-10. Been there... The big question is Tannehill's improvement. He's done nothing but exceed expectations since arriving. The coaches are raving about his improvement in all aspects through OTAs. I think it'd be giving away value not to expect 1,100 yards and 8, and that's with room for substancial upside. WR 15-17.
 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Mr Non Sequitur said:
The loss of Jake Long at Left Tackle and the signing of Tyson Clabo at Right Tackle playing in a new blocking scheme thus pushing Jaime Martin to Left Tackle, a position he is woefully under skilled right now to play, this should be the concern of many.

Why does it matter who is playing Tackle, right? Well it matters a lot in pass protection because even though Wallace is fast, Tannehill still must have time in the pocket to deliver the football and I am afraid Miami is going to be giving up a lot of sacks on the end spots. Tannehill does have some nimble feet but he can't be expected to buy time on a continuous basis. DEs and blitzing OLBs are going to force Tannehill to check down a lot to his 2nd and 3rd options. Wallace will have his moments but he is not going to be anywhere close to WR1 numbers.

4 catches a week on avg would put him at 64/950/6 TD. He won't make that much difference for owners outside of a couple big games. Brian Hartline about 6-7 rounds later is a much better value in PPR leagues. They paid him $31m in the off season and he is coming off his first 1,000 yd season with a rookie QB, they already have some chemistry, that's your target on the Miami Dolphins offense IMO.
Jake Long was bad and injured last year. His decline has been noted by several sources. His loss is more headline than substance. I agree that Martin is probably not a good LT, but I am willing to bet Martin @ LT in 2013 is roughly equal to Long/backup @ LT in 2012. Plus, if it is a problem they can just bootleg Tannehill out and buy time that way. Houston did that a lot last year with our piss poor right side of the line and it worked alright despite a slow QB with mediocre arm strength. Should work great with an athletic QB with a cannon.

Hartline scraped 1000 yards together off of 131 targets. I'll be surprised if he cracks 100 targets this year. Well, not super surprised, but he won't get much more than that, so we're probably looking at 50-60 receptions from him. Good value, but you're not winning if he's in your lineup.

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Coeur de Lion said:
Bunch of people projecting 8 - 10 TDs for Wallace -- the Dolphins threw for only 13 as a team last year and are going to be integrating a bunch of new parts. I have a hard time seeing any Miami player coming close to 10 receiving TDs.
Tannehill was a rookie QB with Brian Hartline as his top option.

I think we should expect some improvement from Tannelhill based on experience, and the fact that Wallace has the capability to dominate a game with his speed. Just Wallace drawing attention should open the rest of the offense up a bit - and personally I think Keller was a good signing as well. He can play, but injuries and a bad situation have held him in check a bit.
Dominate a game with his speed?

With the young, questionable pieces surrounding him, and that same bad situation you put Keller under, I just don't see Wallace dominating games. Gonna be interesting to see how well they cater to his strengths.
In context please. Wallace's "capability to dominate a game with his speed" should help Tannehill improve as a QB and help him be more productive this season.

 

Warrior

Footballguy
A second year QB plus WR diva could be an issue. Wallace has been known to drop passes, take the odd penalty that he shouldn't have and complain about not getting the ball enough.
1) How is Wallace a "WR diva?"

2) "been known to drop passes;" before last season, Wallace had dropped only 2.9% of his targets in his 1st 3 seasons. Last year seems like the exception, not the rule.

3) "take the odd penalty?" I'm not sure what that means. He takes penalties from time to time, just as any other NFL WR (or player for that matter) does. Do you have some data that shows he is penalized more than other WRs, or for different (odd) infractions?

4) "complains about not getting the ball enough;" I can't find any quotes, articles, or reports of this happening in his 4 year career. Do you have any links to these complaints?

I don't know if I agree with the projections calling for 1200+ yards, but I don't think the reasons you give would be reasons he doesn't hit that number. I think it will be more a combination of a 2nd year QB, new offense (for Wallace to learn), and an offense that hasn't "gelled" yet.
4) Google is easy to use if you want links. I found two on the first page with a simple search.

He has said in the past that his dip in production was because he's not getting targeted very frequently and that it was hard to concentrate because of it.

Definitely a passive aggressive way to say "pass me the ball more" without actually saying it. Left just enough off the table so that apologists could spin it for him though.

 

Bayhawks

Footballguy
A second year QB plus WR diva could be an issue. Wallace has been known to drop passes, take the odd penalty that he shouldn't have and complain about not getting the ball enough.
1) How is Wallace a "WR diva?"

2) "been known to drop passes;" before last season, Wallace had dropped only 2.9% of his targets in his 1st 3 seasons. Last year seems like the exception, not the rule.

3) "take the odd penalty?" I'm not sure what that means. He takes penalties from time to time, just as any other NFL WR (or player for that matter) does. Do you have some data that shows he is penalized more than other WRs, or for different (odd) infractions?

4) "complains about not getting the ball enough;" I can't find any quotes, articles, or reports of this happening in his 4 year career. Do you have any links to these complaints?

I don't know if I agree with the projections calling for 1200+ yards, but I don't think the reasons you give would be reasons he doesn't hit that number. I think it will be more a combination of a 2nd year QB, new offense (for Wallace to learn), and an offense that hasn't "gelled" yet.
4) Google is easy to use if you want links. I found two on the first page with a simple search.

He has said in the past that his dip in production was because he's not getting targeted very frequently and that it was hard to concentrate because of it.

Definitely a passive aggressive way to say "pass me the ball more" without actually saying it. Left just enough off the table so that apologists could spin it for him though.
Google is easy to use, but you have to use it correctly.

Wallace was asked about his drops, not his targets. He responded with this quote:

"I've never been a guy who dropped balls or just lose focus," Wallace said somewhat apologetically. "The first three years I was always involved, so you just warmed up in games, and you were just into it.

"But when you don't get the ball for two-and-half quarters, you lose focus. But that's the type of offense this is. We're spreading it around, so you're not going to get as many targets. When you get them, you have to make the best of them."
He was making excuses for his drops last year, not complaining about targets. He didn't say "throw me the ball more," he was saying "the new offense spreads the ball around; in the past that didn't happen, so I concentrated better/more." It's not a very professional attitude, but it isn't actually complaining about getting the ball. If he had said, "give me the ball more, and I'll be more focused," I'd agree that was a passive-aggressive way of demanding more throws, but that's not what this quote was.

 

SaintsInDome2006

Footballguy
The loss of Jake Long at Left Tackle and the signing of Tyson Clabo at Right Tackle playing in a new blocking scheme thus pushing Jaime Martin to Left Tackle, a position he is woefully under skilled right now to play, this should be the concern of many.

Why does it matter who is playing Tackle, right? Well it matters a lot in pass protection because even though Wallace is fast, Tannehill still must have time in the pocket to deliver the football and I am afraid Miami is going to be giving up a lot of sacks on the end spots. Tannehill does have some nimble feet but he can't be expected to buy time on a continuous basis. DEs and blitzing OLBs are going to force Tannehill to check down a lot to his 2nd and 3rd options. Wallace will have his moments but he is not going to be anywhere close to WR1 numbers.

4 catches a week on avg would put him at 64/950/6 TD. He won't make that much difference for owners outside of a couple big games. Brian Hartline about 6-7 rounds later is a much better value in PPR leagues. They paid him $31m in the off season and he is coming off his first 1,000 yd season with a rookie QB, they already have some chemistry, that's your target on the Miami Dolphins offense IMO.
Jake Long was bad and injured last year. His decline has been noted by several sources. His loss is more headline than substance. I agree that Martin is probably not a good LT, but I am willing to bet Martin @ LT in 2013 is roughly equal to Long/backup @ LT in 2012. Plus, if it is a problem they can just bootleg Tannehill out and buy time that way. Houston did that a lot last year with our piss poor right side of the line and it worked alright despite a slow QB with mediocre arm strength. Should work great with an athletic QB with a cannon.

Hartline scraped 1000 yards together off of 131 targets. I'll be surprised if he cracks 100 targets this year. Well, not super surprised, but he won't get much more than that, so we're probably looking at 50-60 receptions from him. Good value, but you're not winning if he's in your lineup.
Hartline also had one huge game that skews things a bit. Watching things last year (somewhat) the receivers sure seemed to get jammed up a lot. Well there might still be something to the idea that Hartline goes from being the "deep" option (...) to his more natural role underneath with Wallace coming in to clear out the intermediate patterns. The Dolphins still need a lot more WR help (obviously), but it's possible that Wallace might actually help Hartline.

As fars as Tannehill being a 2nd year QB, that works in his advantage too, he could or should get only better. No Reggie to kick it out to this year but who knows how that role will be filled. Keller brings some experience to the TE spot.

The line is a possible problem, it's true.

 

Gawain

Footballguy
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com

(10:20 am ET) Dolphins wide receiver Mike Wallace said he was brought to Miami to do more than just catch passes, according to the Sun-Sentinel.

"I just have to lead more, lead by example more, not just go out and think I can just play my game and that'll be all I need to do," Wallace said. "Out there [in Pittsburgh] we had so many great leaders that I really didn't have to say too much, I really didn't have to do too much, just go out and do my job. But here, I have to do my job and motivate at the same time.

"I know exactly what my role is. I'm here to be a leader. This is a young team, and we'll just continue to get better. I've got to motivate guys and just lead by example."
I'm going to be watching this closely during training camp and preseason to see how the Dolphins offensive line looks. If Tannehill can get time for the deep post and fly patterns to develop, I'm going to be buying into the Wallace hype.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Tannehill jump to 550 attempts or so. I'm a fan of Miller, but I'm not sure he's a 25 carry a game type back. I think that the pass may set up the run more than vice-versa.

If Tannehill takes a jump to 550 targets (which I think will be good for about 14th or so), I think Wallace can get 150 of them. I think Miami will use him on a more developed route tree, including a heavier use on bubble screens and the like. That should bring his TD per Rec number down.

150 targets, 60% catch rate=90 receptions

90 receptions@14 YPC= 1260 yards

90 reception@.1TD/Rec=9TDs

For a fairly rosy prediction of:

90/1260/9

 

Fantasy Fool

Footballguy
Anyone else consider Hartline an option for leading the team in targets and receptions?
Brian and the rest of his family, perhaps.
Give me Brian, his family, and their ADP versus Wallace at his.
+1 for me. Hartline is being drafted in the Round 11-12 range. He was the top option in the passing game last year, and got the #1 CB every game. He put up 74 receptions and over 1,000 yards in this situation. Only 1 TD, but the Dolphins only had 13 as a team. Now he has Wallace to stretch the field, and take up the opponent's #1 CB.

Would you take Wallace in the 5th, or Hartline in the 11-12th round?

 
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Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Anyone else consider Hartline an option for leading the team in targets and receptions?
Brian and the rest of his family, perhaps.
Give me Brian, his family, and their ADP versus Wallace at his.
+1 for me. Hartline is being drafted in the Round 11-12 range. He was the top option in the passing game last year, and got the #1 CB every game. He put up 74 receptions and over 1,000 yards in this situation. Only 1 TD, but the Dolphins only had 13 as a team. Now he has Wallace to stretch the field, and take up the opponent's #1 CB.

Would you take Wallace in the 5th, or Hartline in the 11-12th round?
There's a reason why Wallace goes in the 5th and Hartline in the 11th. I don't really understand why people bring up the "value" aspect of getting a guy later. We're all going to draft someone in the 5th and someone in the 11th. We just need to pick the right players in both of those rounds. Frankly, it would depend on who was available in Round 5 as compared to Wallace and who was available as compared to Hartline - I will say that I'm pretty sure there will be players I like better than Hartline in round 11 that will present "value".

Does it really matter where my round 11 value comes from? If I take Wallace in round 5, and Player X in round 11 who outperforms Hartline, also drafted in round 11, were you better off waiting on Hartline while I foolishly took Wallace in round 5?

I always find questions like that irrelevant and misleading. Wallace and Hartline play on the same NFL team. In fantasy they have no connection to eachother.

 

swirvenirvin

Footballguy
Wow, some very high projections on here, and it looks like he won't be on any of my teams based on some of these. 75+ receptions and 9 TD's? I don't see that happening. Tennehill is an obvious downgrade from Ben. Also it's a brand new system for Wallace to learn and he didn't do so hot last year picking up Haley's dink and dunk. Didn't he miss some camp time last year? Also since Tannehill is confortable with Hartline, I can see Hartline and the TE's getting most of the targets, and Wallace won't be targeted as much at least until Tennehill is more confortable with him.

63-925-7 (Have Tannenhill at 21 TD's) for

Below, T. Smith, Shorts, Bowe, Wayne, Decker, S. Smith etc

 

ldizzle

Footballguy
Anyone else consider Hartline an option for leading the team in targets and receptions?
Brian and the rest of his family, perhaps.
Give me Brian, his family, and their ADP versus Wallace at his.
+1 for me. Hartline is being drafted in the Round 11-12 range. He was the top option in the passing game last year, and got the #1 CB every game. He put up 74 receptions and over 1,000 yards in this situation. Only 1 TD, but the Dolphins only had 13 as a team. Now he has Wallace to stretch the field, and take up the opponent's #1 CB.

Would you take Wallace in the 5th, or Hartline in the 11-12th round?
There's a reason why Wallace goes in the 5th and Hartline in the 11th. I don't really understand why people bring up the "value" aspect of getting a guy later. We're all going to draft someone in the 5th and someone in the 11th. We just need to pick the right players in both of those rounds. Frankly, it would depend on who was available in Round 5 as compared to Wallace and who was available as compared to Hartline - I will say that I'm pretty sure there will be players I like better than Hartline in round 11 that will present "value".

Does it really matter where my round 11 value comes from? If I take Wallace in round 5, and Player X in round 11 who outperforms Hartline, also drafted in round 11, were you better off waiting on Hartline while I foolishly took Wallace in round 5?

I always find questions like that irrelevant and misleading. Wallace and Hartline play on the same NFL team. In fantasy they have no connection to eachother.
:goodposting: Now I am not as high as Wallace as some others are this year, BUT to assume that Hartline will all of a sudden be a great number 2 because Wallace is there is silly. Hartline had a good deal of targets last year. Do you really think he will get that many again this year? If we applied that logic to 2 years ago, Hartline should have been a decent value when Brandon Marshall was spreading the field to leave him open. Miami had roughly the same amount of yards between Henne/Moore as Tannehill did last year, plus Tannehill had more attempts. I may stay away from both this year, just depends on how they look in camp/preseason and where they are being drafted by the time the draft rolls around I guess...

 
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Phlash

Footballguy
seems overpriced/overvalued to me.for my money, if I'm going to take a chance on a guy with big upside potential, that guy is Kenny Britt..

Wallace seems like nothing more than a remake of Johnny Morton, i.e., a decent yet unspectacular WR who catches about 70 balls, barely scratches 1000 yards , and scores 4-5 TD's/yr..

not unlike Santonio Holmes with NYJ..

Wallace makes a solid #3/4 WR but nothing more IMO..

70-910-5...13 ypc..

potential bust of the year candidate( relative to his ADP.)

I'd rather take a flyer on Reuben Randle,given Nicks' propensity to get hurt..
This is how I'm seeing it as well. They paid him a lot so they'll certainly throw his way, but I can't imagine them force feeding him the ball if it's not winning them games, and the Steeler's never really warmed up to him.

 

ODannyBoy

Footballguy
Anyone else consider Hartline an option for leading the team in targets and receptions?
Brian and the rest of his family, perhaps.
Give me Brian, his family, and their ADP versus Wallace at his.
+1 for me. Hartline is being drafted in the Round 11-12 range. He was the top option in the passing game last year, and got the #1 CB every game. He put up 74 receptions and over 1,000 yards in this situation. Only 1 TD, but the Dolphins only had 13 as a team. Now he has Wallace to stretch the field, and take up the opponent's #1 CB.

Would you take Wallace in the 5th, or Hartline in the 11-12th round?
Are you certain of this? I mean, did someone watch the games and verify this assertion?

Not all defenses assign their best CB to shadow the opposing team's best WR.

And whether or not they do can vary from week to week based on how good, or bad, the opposing team's WR's are. You know that someone like Calvin Johnson is going to get extra attention from a team that doesn't normally shadow. But I'm not sure that taking Hartline away was goal #1 for opposing defenses every week last year. He might have been simply drawing whichever corner was assigned to that side of the field.

 
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Marginally relevant and semi-coherent thoughts

  • Shaky WR2 for PPR, better for non-PPR: average ish. If he's your WR3 you are happy because the risk is lessened quite a bit.
  • I think he is similar to Torrey Smith-burner best catching long routes at therefore a lower rate and thus less catches than other counterparts. Wallace is more skilled imho, Smith has a better QB.
  • I like Tannehill and think his skillset aligns with Wallaces so I'm relatively optimistic on Wallace. Could get burned though as the OL might not give enough time to throw
  • I think he will approximate his 2nd best season, so 70/1100/7 or thereabouts
  • Free agent WRs still worry me a bit
  • I play in leagues with big bonuses for long TDs so he has been a monster there. He'll go in the 3rd maybe 4th in those leagues and be worth it.
 
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new-guru

Footballguy
Wallace will continue to play the deep threat role he held as a Steeler. Tannehill is more than capable on hitting him with deep passes and quick strikes and Wallace's speed will permit him him to break free for big play TD's. There is no reason to think the Dolphins offense won't be on par or even exceedingly better than it was last year. Their offensive skill positions are improved. Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson are respectable WRs and Keller is an improvement over Fasano that should permit occasional opportunities for Wallace to see single coverage against undermatched and slower corners without safety help.

Looking forward to seeing how Joe Philbin uses his new weapon.

79 receptions 1250 yards and 9 tds

15 rushes 200 yards
Its hard for me to think he can produce anywhere close to this when he's not developing any chemestry with his QB. Do your Projections change?

 

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