Player Spotlight: Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington Redskins (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington Redskins

Player Page Link: Pierre Garcon Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[LawFitz]

Pierre = stud when paired with RGII and both are healthy. Top ten fantasy WR type stud. But injuries are a major concern for both of them.

 

[cstu]

Pierre = stud when paired with RGII and both are healthy. Top ten fantasy WR type stud. But injuries are a major concern for both of them.

Injury is much more of a concern for me for Garcon that it is for RG3. A torn plantar plate is a serious issue for a player like Garcon who puts tremendous pressure on his foot. It also seems like he made a mistake not to get surgery like many doctors were recommending. All in all it's a high risk/high upside situation and at the moment it doesn't seem like his injury concerns are priced into his current value.

 

[nirad3]

Pierre = stud when paired with RGII and both are healthy. Top ten fantasy WR type stud. But injuries are a major concern for both of them.

Injury is much more of a concern for me for Garcon that it is for RG3. A torn plantar plate is a serious issue for a player like Garcon who puts tremendous pressure on his foot. It also seems like he made a mistake not to get surgery like many doctors were recommending. All in all it's a high risk/high upside situation and at the moment it doesn't seem like his injury concerns are priced into his current value.

Thread complete, at least for me. Pretty high risk but definitely solid rewards if the risks are avoided.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Agree about Garcon's foot, but think that between Griffin's strong recovery to date and Cousins's performance last year he doesn't have a ton of QB risk.

If the foot holds up, 80-1150-8 -- strong WR2 territory. If it doesn't, who knows?

 

[cstu]

Agree about Garcon's foot, but think that between Griffin's strong recovery to date and Cousins's performance last year he doesn't have a ton of QB risk.If the foot holds up, 80-1150-8 -- strong WR2 territory. If it doesn't, who knows?

I agree with the projection, the hard one for me is laying odds on him staying healthy.

 

[pghrob]

Bump

 

[FF Ninja]

Garcon is a scary player. If you draft him, you're scared of his injuries. If you don't draft him, you're scared he's going to stay healthy and blow up. Personally, I didn't give him a second thought last year. I am not even sure if it is true, but I thought I recalled hearing that he had suspect hands and he was going to be paired up with a rookie QB on a perennially bad team. I felt like I dodged a bullet when Griffin looked like a better passer than anyone could have hoped for, but Garcon got hurt in week 1 and seemingly couldn't ever get back up to full speed.

I don't want to make the same mistake this year, but that foot injury is scary. Sounds like something that could linger and could really make you kick yourself in hindsight for not taking it more seriously. But that being said, he was WR10 from weeks 12-17. In those 6 weeks, he had 53 targets for 34 receptions. I'm not sure a 64% catch rate is sustainable for him, but his 14.3 ypr is pretty good for a guy with a bad wheel.

As I see it, a strong case can be made on both sides of this one. Given that he's going WR21 (5th round), I'm probably going to pass on him since I really like a lot of the WRs currently available in rounds 6 and 7.

 

[TheLurkerBelow]

I agree with the concept of Garcon as a risk/reward player, but I think it's key to quantify the reward so that we can weigh the risk against it. To do that I look at the games where both Garcon and RGIII were both healthy last year. it ends up being a much smaller sample size than I would like, but here they are:

Week 1: 4 rec, 109 yards, 1 TD

Week 4: 1 rec, 20 yards

Week 5: 3 rec, 24 yards

Week 11: 3 rec, 5 yards

Week 12: 4 rec, 86 yards, 1 TD

Week 13: 8 rec, 106 yards, 1 TD

Week 14: 5 rec, 83 yards, 1 TD

We could debate the actual health of Garcon in weeks 4, 5, and 11. An optimist/apologist would say that he may have tried to come back too soon in 4 and 5, and in week 11 he was still knocking the rust off. Whichever view you take, I think that when Garcon and RGIII are both healthy, you're looking at a top 15 WR.

Edit: I do realize that RGIII played two more games at the end of the season with Garcon in the lineup, but he was in no way a healthy QB so I don't view those numbers as an accurate representation of what they are capable of together.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

For much of last season, Garcon expressed a strong preference to avoid undergoing surgery for the torn ligament in his foot that plagued him virtually the entire season. He opted not to have surgery for that injury, saying there had been no guarantees given by doctors that such a procedure would resolve the problem.Garcon said Thursday that his foot is “getting better” and “it’ll be good” this season. But he also called his ongoing rehabilitation of the injury “a process” and stopped short of declaring he’s certain that he’ll be completely unbothered this season by his foot injury.“You never know,” Garcon said. “We could be playing on a bad field and something happens. Or we could be playing on a good field and something happens. I can’t predict what’s going to happen or how it’s going to be. But I’m going to continue to rehab it and continue to work at it and continue to monitor it.”

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

I see that Garcon is still hovering around an ADP of early 6th rd in dynasty startups and 64 overall in the current rankings here. Do his corrective shoes or statements like, "I have to learn a lot about my foot and how I run and things like that with all these injuries" give anyone pause on his current value? I've never been a huge fan of his but this knocks him down quite a bit in my eyes. WRs who have to think about how they are running send up a warning flare to me.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000209768/article/pierre-garcon-i-have-special-shoes-to-help-with-rehab

 

[cstu]

I see that Garcon is still hovering around an ADP of early 6th rd in dynasty startups and 64 overall in the current rankings here. Do his corrective shoes or statements like, "I have to learn a lot about my foot and how I run and things like that with all these injuries" give anyone pause on his current value? I've never been a huge fan of his but this knocks him down quite a bit in my eyes. WRs who have to think about how they are running send up a warning flare to me.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000209768/article/pierre-garcon-i-have-special-shoes-to-help-with-rehab

It does me but a lot of people can't resist the temptation of a talented guy like Garcon paired with RG3.

 

[LususV]

I agree with the concept of Garcon as a risk/reward player, but I think it's key to quantify the reward so that we can weigh the risk against it. To do that I look at the games where both Garcon and RGIII were both healthy last year. it ends up being a much smaller sample size than I would like, but here they are:

Week 1: 4 rec, 109 yards, 1 TD

Week 4: 1 rec, 20 yards

Week 5: 3 rec, 24 yards

Week 11: 3 rec, 5 yards

Week 12: 4 rec, 86 yards, 1 TD

Week 13: 8 rec, 106 yards, 1 TD

Week 14: 5 rec, 83 yards, 1 TD

We could debate the actual health of Garcon in weeks 4, 5, and 11. An optimist/apologist would say that he may have tried to come back too soon in 4 and 5, and in week 11 he was still knocking the rust off. Whichever view you take, I think that when Garcon and RGIII are both healthy, you're looking at a top 15 WR.

Edit: I do realize that RGIII played two more games at the end of the season with Garcon in the lineup, but he was in no way a healthy QB so I don't view those numbers as an accurate representation of what they are capable of together.

Thank you - I think too many decisions are made on year-end values and not enough on 'what does the guy do when I put him in my lineup'. If I'm drafting a WR3 type, I'm going to be cycling him in and out of my lineup based on health and matchups. Other than a game in which he gets hurt (and puts up a 20 yard 0 TD performance on the week), which is certainly a risk, the risk of 0-fers IN MY LINEUP is minimal. He's a 15 point guy when able, and I'll only start him on Sunday if I believe he's able. Picking him demands a very solid WR4, so budget your draft accordingly.

 

[JPeso]

I feel more comfortable with a PPG projection rather than full year. If he plays a full year, I'll say 80 catches, 1175 yards , 7 TD = 240 PPR / 15 PPR PPG, would have been good for WR18 in PPR leagues on a PPG basis - that feels right to me. But when I weight the injury risk vs. his ADP, it's highly unlikely Garcon will be on any of my rosters this season.

 

[Tanner9919]

draft him, play him early on, you trade him IMMEDIATELY after he has that huge game, because you know an injury is just around the corner..

 

[Khy]

I'm probably not drafting him unless he slides fairly far in my redraft this season, I had him last year and the games he hit he won for me single handedly but I don't trust the foot. Assuming we are talking predictions if the foot holds up all season. It'd be silly to make predictions otherwise.

90 Rec, 1350 Yards, 10 TDs

We saw what he did when he was playing healthy last year. So I don't think these stats are unreasonable if he can stay healthy. Last season in the games he actually played this is what we saw:

Week 1: 4 Rec 109 yards 1 TD

Week 12: 4 Rec 86 yds 1 TD

Week 13: 8 Rec 106 yds 1 TD

Week 14: 5 Rec 83 yds 1 TD

Week 15: 6 Rec 65 yds 0 TD

Week 16: 7 Rec 89 yds 0 TD

Week 17: 3 Rec 46 yds 0 TD

Averaged and extrapolated to a full season we'd see about 85 Rec 1334 yds 9 TDs.

 

[bengalbuck]

I see that Garcon is still hovering around an ADP of early 6th rd in dynasty startups and 64 overall in the current rankings here. Do his corrective shoes or statements like, "I have to learn a lot about my foot and how I run and things like that with all these injuries" give anyone pause on his current value? I've never been a huge fan of his but this knocks him down quite a bit in my eyes. WRs who have to think about how they are running send up a warning flare to me.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000209768/article/pierre-garcon-i-have-special-shoes-to-help-with-rehab

Only anecdotal evidence, but I suspect his ADP is falling based on this news.

In a 12 team PPR dynasty startup (1/2/3/1, w/ 2 flex spots) a few weeks ago, he fell to me in the 8th round. I thought about him in both the 6th and 7th and passed due to worries about the foot. I am pretty sure others did the same and decided to pass also due mainly to the foot injury and his talk about not quite being 100%.

It seemed like his dynasty ADP started out around the 4th round or so in the very early offseason drafts and has been slowly and steadily falling the past few months based upon the injury updates. I suspect it will settle in around the 7th round or so.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Receiver Pierre Garcon’s catch of a high slant pass during team drills that reminded me of so many receptions he had in traffic last season. He aggressively finishes routes over the middle, and the tough mentality he demonstrates while blocking carries over to the passing game. He has run well through the first week of camp, showing no signs of last year’s foot injury or the offseason labrum surgery.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Like everyone has said, if he is healthy and on the field he is going to produce. Im worried about the foot though. If he slips in my drafts I would definitely consider him, but it would also depend on my draft to that point because I dont want him as my WR2. If he's there in the 7th after Ive already picked a couple WRs, at that point I say why not.

 

[T with T]

I'm probably not drafting him unless he slides fairly far in my redraft this season, I had him last year and the games he hit he won for me single handedly but I don't trust the foot. Assuming we are talking predictions if the foot holds up all season. It'd be silly to make predictions otherwise.

90 Rec, 1350 Yards, 10 TDs

We saw what he did when he was playing healthy last year. So I don't think these stats are unreasonable if he can stay healthy. Last season in the games he actually played this is what we saw:

Week 1: 4 Rec 109 yards 1 TD

Week 12: 4 Rec 86 yds 1 TD

Week 13: 8 Rec 106 yds 1 TD

Week 14: 5 Rec 83 yds 1 TD

Week 15: 6 Rec 65 yds 0 TD

Week 16: 7 Rec 89 yds 0 TD

Week 17: 3 Rec 46 yds 0 TD

Averaged and extrapolated to a full season we'd see about 85 Rec 1334 ys 9 TDs.

your not gonna draft him and you predict him to put top 10 numbers... I got him in the early 6th and Im stoked about it... for a top 10 talent..

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I'm probably not drafting him unless he slides fairly far in my redraft this season, I had him last year and the games he hit he won for me single handedly but I don't trust the foot. Assuming we are talking predictions if the foot holds up all season. It'd be silly to make predictions otherwise.

90 Rec, 1350 Yards, 10 TDs

We saw what he did when he was playing healthy last year. So I don't think these stats are unreasonable if he can stay healthy. Last season in the games he actually played this is what we saw:

Week 1: 4 Rec 109 yards 1 TD

Week 12: 4 Rec 86 yds 1 TD

Week 13: 8 Rec 106 yds 1 TD

Week 14: 5 Rec 83 yds 1 TD

Week 15: 6 Rec 65 yds 0 TD

Week 16: 7 Rec 89 yds 0 TD

Week 17: 3 Rec 46 yds 0 TD

Averaged and extrapolated to a full season we'd see about 85 Rec 1334 ys 9 TDs.

your not gonna draft him and you predict him to put top 10 numbers...

 

[Kenny Powers]

Im thinking Garcon may end up being a target for me. He has as much potential as any WRs around him to end up with WR1 numbers, and WR looks deep enough to me where if I can back him up good WRs in case he does get hurt again.

 

[silentcoach]

Im thinking Garcon may end up being a target for me. He has as much potential as any WRs around him to end up with WR1 numbers, and WR looks deep enough to me where if I can back him up good WRs in case he does get hurt again.

Yeah. Hid adp is wr 21, but he went a lot earlier than that in my league--wr 14 or so. So, some people are feeling the same way (me included).

 

[Borden]

Dredged up this old thread because I didn't see a better thread on him. I was just wondering what everyone is think of Garçon. 

I've heard talks about Kirk Cousins and his great receiving options but how good is Garçon? What kind of numbers are people expecting from him? He seems to be going in round 11 or later in MFL10s. He's had 2 pretty good seasons but hasn't ever been a big TD guy. 

I think Doctson bumps him into the slot by the time the regular season starts. However, I think Washington is best suited for a 3 wide single back base set. So Garçon still could likely still put up his 70/700/5 common stat line. 

 

[tangfoot]

Dredged up this old thread because I didn't see a better thread on him. I was just wondering what everyone is think of Garçon. 

I've heard talks about Kirk Cousins and his great receiving options but how good is Garçon? What kind of numbers are people expecting from him? He seems to be going in round 11 or later in MFL10s. He's had 2 pretty good seasons but hasn't ever been a big TD guy. 

I think Doctson bumps him into the slot by the time the regular season starts. However, I think Washington is best suited for a 3 wide single back base set. So Garçon still could likely still put up his 70/700/5 common stat line. 

I don't think there will be enough targets left for Garcon to get 70 catches this year.  Between an improved defense, an improved running game (hopefully?), and additional weapons on offense (Doctson, Reed healthy for the full season-maybe, and Jackson with healthy hamstrings), it just doesn't seem good for him.

 

[Shutout]

Dredged up this old thread because I didn't see a better thread on him. I was just wondering what everyone is think of Garçon. 

I've heard talks about Kirk Cousins and his great receiving options but how good is Garçon? What kind of numbers are people expecting from him? He seems to be going in round 11 or later in MFL10s. He's had 2 pretty good seasons but hasn't ever been a big TD guy. 

I think Doctson bumps him into the slot by the time the regular season starts. However, I think Washington is best suited for a 3 wide single back base set. So Garçon still could likely still put up his 70/700/5 common stat line. 

I believe you're in a good ball park with those numbers. I would likely bump the yardage up 100 or so and the TD 1-2 but otherwise I think he is what he is, they play in a division that kind of promotes some good fantasy production, they have a few key offensive guys that tend to miss games.  The did add Doctson but they did lose Roberts.  I don't think Doctson impacts Garcon as much as them signing a FA like Boldin would. I think there is clearly a role there, especially considering the team could have released him and saved some good money but have already said they have specific plans for him. 

A few years ago he was instrumental to some fantasy teams with that huge year. That isn't happening again but he has otherwise been pretty consistent and I like him most as that prime "next guy up", — that guy that you always feel good about using when you have a bye or injuries hit.  In ppr it seems like he's always going to get you about 9 or so and sometimes you look up and its 16.  That's a good return on a relatively cheap investment.

 

[Shutout]

I don't think there will be enough targets left for Garcon to get 70 catches this year.  Between an improved defense, an improved running game (hopefully?), and additional weapons on offense (Doctson, Reed healthy for the full season-maybe, and Jackson with healthy hamstrings), it just doesn't seem good for him.

Of the 5 things you listed that will keep him under 70 catches, I honestly think maybe 1 will actually happen.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'd much rather own Garcon than Doctsun this year.  Given what I expect his pricing to be, I expect to own him in all my best ball contests/formats for 2016.