Player Spotlight: Priest Holmes (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2005 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Ultimately, each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Priest Holmes, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Priest Holmes Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoints from two Footballguys Staff Members

Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I will gladly get this one going.Priest has the best opp of any of the top RB. The offense is geared for the RB unlike Indy which is much more pass friendly. If Priest stays healthy than he is the #1 FF RB for 2005...no way around it. Even if the 500 points that all KC RB slides down a little to say 400+, Priest would still lead the league.Prediction: 250/1,125/20; 40/350/2Priest might only rack about 1,500 yds but he will score 20+ TD in this offense. And with the defense inproving I see even easier chances for this offense to work from a short field.

 

[dapunisher]

I have had the number 1 pick twice in the past three drafts and been burned by taking Faulk and Priest, respectively, when the injuries hit. I don't know if I have the stomach to select Priest again, but I also woudn't be shocked to see him put up numbers like MOP just projected.

 

[SSOG]

Priest Holmes has been the #1 RB on a points per game basis for 3 or 4 seasons now... and it hasn't even been CLOSE. Seriously, when he's healthy, the #2 guy in the league is barely fit to carry his jock strap.The problem with Holmes is he keeps missing time at the end of the season, which is playoff time. As such, I don't think the numbers accurately reflect his value. Sure, he will get you into the postseason, guaranteed... but he'll vanish as soon as you get there. I'd much rather get a back that averages 20 ppg over the entire season than a guy who averages 30 for the first 12 games and then misses the last 4 entirely.I expect around 1400 all-purpose yards and 20+ TDs from Priest, but I wouldn't pick him unless 6 or 7 other guys were already off the board.That said, if he plays the entire season and stays healthy, he can win you the league. Easily.

 

[el-gato-grande]

Alot of fantasy owners point out Priest's age (32) as the red flag pointing to a decline in production. But, as an eight year veteran, Priest has less miles than most runningbacks his age due to his time in Baltimore. To illustrate, LaDainian Tomlinson who has been in the league four years, has 1363 career carries. Priest has just 252 more than Tomlinson (1615 total), which is less than one season of production for either feature back.Priest's 2004 injury was not the type that normally hurts a player's production the following year. His hip might warrant greater concern, but it didn't seem to effect him last year as he was the top producer at his position at the time he suffered the knee injury. Due to this, I believe Priest will come back strong and post numbers that will still put him among the elite backs. Projection:Rushing: 313/1408/23Rec: 69/650/4

 

[Hellfire Snail]

Age and injuries become a collage of danger if you look at them all at once, but if you dissect each area it can clear things up. As you said, the hip should be the only lingering concern, and that hasn't been an issue since it happened. His age is not a factor for the upcoming season--Priest is in excellent physical condition, and guys like Martin and Dillon, who have taken much more serious poundings over the years, don't seem to be running down any time soon. How many times does Priest take a vicious blow? He usually scampering towards the sideline on a toss or diving into the endzone untouched. As long as Priest gets 20 touches a game, he is miles ahead of anyone in the league and will singlehandedly vault you into the playoffs. Talk about risk/reward, this is as good as it gets, and the risks are arguably not as bad as they have been painted to be.

 

[Cunning Linguist]

I have had Priest in a keeper league for the last three years and won nothing. I expect Vermeil to lighten his load a little more this year. In years past **** has pulled him in the 4th quarter, and sometimes the 3rd. Granted he had 2 Td's and 100 total by then, and that was great. I just expect him to work in LJ more and sooner to lighten the load, making Priest just average in total, but tearing it up when he plays, just like LJ.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have had Priest in a keeper league for the last three years and won nothing. I expect Vermeil to lighten his load a little more this year. In years past **** has pulled him in the 4th quarter, and sometimes the 3rd. Granted he had 2 Td's and 100 total by then, and that was great. I just expect him to work in LJ more and sooner to lighten the load, making Priest just average in total, but tearing it up when he plays, just like LJ.

That's odd. The years you had Priest did you make the playoffs? What did the rest of your roster look like? The fact you won nothing doesn't make Priest a bad pick this season. It does speak to your abilities as a FF owner though that you had one of the top RB in the league and couldn't do anything with him. OUCH!

 

[Wingnut]

I have had Priest in a keeper league for the last three years and won nothing. I expect Vermeil to lighten his load a little more this year. In years past **** has pulled him in the 4th quarter, and sometimes the 3rd. Granted he had 2 Td's and 100 total by then, and that was great. I just expect him to work in LJ more and sooner to lighten the load, making Priest just average in total, but tearing it up when he plays, just like LJ.

That's odd. The years you had Priest did you make the playoffs? What did the rest of your roster look like? The fact you won nothing doesn't make Priest a bad pick this season. It does speak to your abilities as a FF owner though that you had one of the top RB in the league and couldn't do anything with him. OUCH!

ZINNNNGGG!!!!!!!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have had Priest in a keeper league for the last three years and won nothing.  I expect Vermeil to lighten his load a little more this year.  In years past **** has pulled him in the 4th quarter, and sometimes the 3rd.  Granted he had 2 Td's and 100 total by then, and that was great.  I just expect him to work in LJ more and sooner to lighten the load, making Priest just average in total, but tearing it up when he plays, just like LJ.

That's odd. The years you had Priest did you make the playoffs? What did the rest of your roster look like? The fact you won nothing doesn't make Priest a bad pick this season. It does speak to your abilities as a FF owner though that you had one of the top RB in the league and couldn't do anything with him. OUCH!

ZINNNNGGG!!!!!!!

I guess I was being a bit of a Richard but I don't see how his lack of success with Priest makes owning Priest this year a terrible idea. The facts are that Priest when he plays, dominates on a weekly basis...you almost do not need another RB at your RB2 spot.

 

[Unlucky]

Priest is really good. LJ getting more work might help Priest stay fresh and play all season. Few RBs get ALL of the carries on their team. There are enough to go around in KC, and Priest should once again be the best fantasy RB. My projections: 310/1395/4.50/19 60/570/9.5/2Totals: 370 touches, 1965 yds, 21 TDs. Still room to go up or down, and still lands Priest at #1.

 

[SSOG]

I have had Priest in a keeper league for the last three years and won nothing. I expect Vermeil to lighten his load a little more this year. In years past **** has pulled him in the 4th quarter, and sometimes the 3rd. Granted he had 2 Td's and 100 total by then, and that was great. I just expect him to work in LJ more and sooner to lighten the load, making Priest just average in total, but tearing it up when he plays, just like LJ.

That's odd. The years you had Priest did you make the playoffs? What did the rest of your roster look like? The fact you won nothing doesn't make Priest a bad pick this season. It does speak to your abilities as a FF owner though that you had one of the top RB in the league and couldn't do anything with him. OUCH!

I had Priest last season, and was the leading point scorer (and had the best record) at the halfway mark. I got Derrick Blaylock and continued to be the leading scorer (and had the best record) all the way until the playoffs. Then Derrick Blaylock went out and was replaced by Larry Johnson, and I lost in the first round of the playoffs.It didn't help that my RBs were Priest Holmes (lost for season), Derrick Blaylock (replaced by Johnson), Rueben Droughns (replaced by Bell), Steven Jackson (couldn't beat out Faulk), and Kevan Barlow (general suck). I wound up starting a Miami guy and Barlow.

 

[Cunning Linguist]

I have had Priest in a keeper league for the last three years and won nothing. I expect Vermeil to lighten his load a little more this year. In years past **** has pulled him in the 4th quarter, and sometimes the 3rd. Granted he had 2 Td's and 100 total by then, and that was great. I just expect him to work in LJ more and sooner to lighten the load, making Priest just average in total, but tearing it up when he plays, just like LJ.

That's odd. The years you had Priest did you make the playoffs? What did the rest of your roster look like? The fact you won nothing doesn't make Priest a bad pick this season. It does speak to your abilities as a FF owner though that you had one of the top RB in the league and couldn't do anything with him. OUCH!

Yeah, that's funny. 2 years ago I had him with Deuce and broke the leagues single season and single game scoring records. It is a 16 team league. I have been in the playoffs for the last 4 years. Last year I carried Brees, Rudi, DD, Deuce, Ward, Walker, Rod Smith, Vinatieri and Redskins D into the playoffs. Trading Priest for Walker and Rudi, so it's not like I haven't been there every year, just lose in the playoffs. Last year lost in the playoffs with 99 points in a leauge where 80 will win most weeks. . Not like I need to tell this all to a fisherman. Rant overAll I was saying was that I have been watching Priest closely, and I believe that you wont see him in on every down of every series like you have in the past. In fact I will go so far as to say he will be come the goal line specialist. He will still be a STUD, but the time he will share in order to keep him fresh the for the end of the season will hurt his value.

Last season Priest didn't even practice until Saturdays, making statements like his body just won't recover like it used to, and that was when he was healthy.

EDIT TO ADD PROJECTION:

900/13 ground

200/1 air

All if healthy.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have had Priest in a keeper league for the last three years and won nothing.  I expect Vermeil to lighten his load a little more this year.  In years past **** has pulled him in the 4th quarter, and sometimes the 3rd.  Granted he had 2 Td's and 100 total by then, and that was great.  I just expect him to work in LJ more and sooner to lighten the load, making Priest just average in total, but tearing it up when he plays, just like LJ.

That's odd. The years you had Priest did you make the playoffs? What did the rest of your roster look like? The fact you won nothing doesn't make Priest a bad pick this season. It does speak to your abilities as a FF owner though that you had one of the top RB in the league and couldn't do anything with him. OUCH!

Yeah, that's funny. 2 years ago I had him with Deuce and broke the league singel season and single game scoring records. It is a 16 team league. I have been in the playoffs for the last 4 years. Last year I carried Brees, Rudi, DD, Deuce, Ward, Walker, Rod Smith, Vinatieri and Redskins D into the playoffs. Trading Priest for Walker and Rudi, so it's not like I haven't been there every year, just lose in the playoffs. Last year lost in the playoffs with 99 points ina leauge where 80 will win most weeks. Rant over.All I was saying was that I have been watching Priest closely, and I believe that you wont see him in on every down of every series like you have in the past. In fact I will go so far as to say he will be come the goal line specialist. He will still be a STUD, but the time he will share in order to keep him fresh the for the end of the season will hurt his value.

Last season Priest didn't even practice until Saturdays, making statements like his body just won't recover like it used to, and that was when he was healthy.

You touch on a good point. His touches. I don't think he will touch it more than 300 times runn/rec. That said I still see it 250/1150/20, 40/350/2That's 290 touches 1,500 yds and 22 TD. Or something like that. LJ will still get a lot of touches but Priest can be the #1 RB with those kind of stats. TD really make up for lost yds due to touches. It takes 60 yds to make up for 1 TD in most leagues. If he has 6-8 TD more than most RB than that is 360-480 more yds you have to make up...very few backs will eclipse the 2,000 yd total. And only so many fall into the 1,500-2,000 are...

You make a good point but again I think the numbers speak well. And besides, if LJ does well it only help Priest stay healthy.

 

[Shermanator]

200 carries850 yds9 tdsdone for the year by week 8sorry, just dont see any way he stays healthy all year. I think its a pipe dream to be that optimistic about a rb thats 31+ thats already breaking down two years in a row with major injuries

 

[Ministry of Pain]

200 carries

850 yds

9 tds

done for the year by week 8

sorry, just dont see any way he stays healthy all year. I think its a pipe dream to be that optimistic about a rb thats 31+ thats already breaking down two years in a row with major injuries

Can you tell us how he will get hurt?

 

[Shermanator]

200 carries

850 yds

9 tds

done for the year by week 8

sorry, just dont see any way he stays healthy all year. I think its a pipe dream to be that optimistic about a rb thats 31+ thats already breaking down two years in a row with major injuries

Can you tell us how he will get hurt?

no I cannot. perhaps a knee again, perhaps a hip again.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

315 carries / 1450 yards / 22 TD40 reception / 300 yards / 2 TD

 

[Ministry of Pain]

200 carries

850 yds

9 tds

done for the year by week 8

sorry, just dont see any way he stays healthy all year. I think its a pipe dream to be that optimistic about a rb thats 31+ thats already breaking down two years in a row with major injuries

Can you tell us how he will get hurt?

no I cannot. perhaps a knee again, perhaps a hip again.

Perhaps not.

 

[Rev.Lovejoy]

Picked up Blaylock when the Padre went down. Then Picked up LJ when Blaylock went down. Both served me well, and telling me that KC and their O-Line churns out RBs. I have a shot at Priest this year, its between him and SH.Alexander. If we take Priest, we will try to handcuff him with LJ. If we have them both I'm a little less worried. I'm with those who share the views that although Priest is a stud, he has had the injury bug bite him and that might scare off some at draft time.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Great discussion as always guys. However, please try and put your projections in here with your post. Thanks.

 

[Shermanator]

200 carries

850 yds

9 tds

done for the year by week 8

sorry, just dont see any way he stays healthy all year. I think its a pipe dream to be that optimistic about a rb thats 31+ thats already breaking down two years in a row with major injuries

Can you tell us how he will get hurt?

no I cannot. perhaps a knee again, perhaps a hip again.

Perhaps not.

History is againt him.Im not really Anti-Priest, I like the guy as much as anyone else. He's had a great career, and a great work ethic.

He is just breaking down. And taking him as a top 3 pick for a player that has played two consecutive half seasonsis a risk I wont take.

If he was 26 years old with these injury concerns, I would roll the dice. But he isnt

 

[Ministry of Pain]

200 carries

850 yds

9 tds

done for the year by week 8

sorry, just dont see any way he stays healthy all year. I think its a pipe dream to be that optimistic about a rb thats 31+ thats already breaking down two years in a row with major injuries

Can you tell us how he will get hurt?

no I cannot. perhaps a knee again, perhaps a hip again.

Perhaps not.

History is againt him.Im not really Anti-Priest, I like the guy as much as anyone else. He's had a great career, and a great work ethic.

He is just breaking down. And taking him as a top 3 pick for a player that has played two consecutive half seasonsis a risk I wont take.

If he was 26 years old with these injury concerns, I would roll the dice. But he isnt

Here we go. Here are Priests game by game points from '02-'04... I gave him 1 point per 10 rush/rec...3 point bonus for 100 yd games, 6 points for TD of course.'02...40,11,40,20,38,24,35,27,11,21,54,31,29,21...DNP the last 2 weeks

'03...32,33,29,13,13,22,29,31,30,9,28,33,19,34,31,17...played the whole season

'04...36,13,16,27,20,44,43,...inj next game would not play rest of season.

In 26 of the 37 games he took the field he scored 21+ points in them which is the mark I set for an outstanding game. meaning he covered for him and another spot be it a Rb,WR,TE whatever, he mde up for it. That's 70% of the time...man that's crazy!

In 15 out of those 37 he had 30+ points which covers him and possibly 2 other spots like a wR plus a kicker...40% of the time he is simply slaughtering the other backfield you are competing against.

The guy is Gold. You only need to take LJ int eh 4th/5th for insurance and your backfield is almost a sure thing.

Waste time and picks on S.Jackson/L.Jordan/B.Westbrook hoping to squeeze enough points out of them or simply take Priest early and grab 2 tremendous WR in the 2nd/3rd...look for Cadillac or someone in the 4th/LJ in the 5th...you have a great roster to punch people right in the chops come Sunday every week. No one will want to face you.

 

[heyshady]

I have had Priest in a keeper league for the last three years and won nothing. I expect Vermeil to lighten his load a little more this year. In years past **** has pulled him in the 4th quarter, and sometimes the 3rd. Granted he had 2 Td's and 100 total by then, and that was great. I just expect him to work in LJ more and sooner to lighten the load, making Priest just average in total, but tearing it up when he plays, just like LJ.

WOW, I have had Priest as well and couldn't lose. If 27 TDs from one RB isn't enough to get you a championship you should probably stop blaming Priest and look at the rest of your roster.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I have had Priest in a keeper league for the last three years and won nothing.  I expect Vermeil to lighten his load a little more this year.  In years past **** has pulled him in the 4th quarter, and sometimes the 3rd.  Granted he had 2 Td's and 100 total by then, and that was great.  I just expect him to work in LJ more and sooner to lighten the load, making Priest just average in total, but tearing it up when he plays, just like LJ.

That's odd. The years you had Priest did you make the playoffs? What did the rest of your roster look like? The fact you won nothing doesn't make Priest a bad pick this season. It does speak to your abilities as a FF owner though that you had one of the top RB in the league and couldn't do anything with him. OUCH!

Well, that's just as odd as your claim that Joe Horn has consistently been on your roster, but never seems to do anything for you. He doesn't put you over the top ever, is what you said.So, you either drafted Horn way too early, or the rest of your drafting sucked.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have had Priest in a keeper league for the last three years and won nothing.  I expect Vermeil to lighten his load a little more this year.  In years past **** has pulled him in the 4th quarter, and sometimes the 3rd.  Granted he had 2 Td's and 100 total by then, and that was great.  I just expect him to work in LJ more and sooner to lighten the load, making Priest just average in total, but tearing it up when he plays, just like LJ.

That's odd. The years you had Priest did you make the playoffs? What did the rest of your roster look like? The fact you won nothing doesn't make Priest a bad pick this season. It does speak to your abilities as a FF owner though that you had one of the top RB in the league and couldn't do anything with him. OUCH!

Well, that's just as odd as your claim that Joe Horn has consistently been on your roster, but never seems to do anything for you. He doesn't put you over the top ever, is what you said.So, you either drafted Horn way too early, or the rest of your drafting sucked.

I knew Cunning Linquist was your alias.Horn and his stats. Again 1 pt per 10 rec...6 pts per TD, 3 pt bonus on 100+ yd games

'01...4,4,4,7,7,27,8,21,17,9,24,22,9,17,1,4

'02...13,15,10,8,6,13,25,12,13,22,4,19,8,6,6,4

'03...14,14,0,4,11,9,22,19,3,2,7,1,14,44,3

'04...14,15,15,15,4,10,12,15,2,25,8,19,31,14,12,7,13

He had under 10 points per game in 43 out of the 65 times he hit the field...or 66% of the time he really did not do that much to help you.

He scored 20+ points in 9 out of those 65 games or 13% of the time. By far he had his best season as far as consistency last year. So the previous 3 seasons I eluded to in an entirely different thread that you blended into this one that has NOTHING TO DO with Priest Holmes and the stats I presented, were in fact justified. Last season actually brings up his stats.

Now there are a lot of WR like Joe Horn...he had his career best last season and will surely be a top candidate to fall from the top5 this year...might not make the top10. Nice to see you come out of the woodwork Sonny.

As you were.

 

[Unlucky]

sorry, just dont see any way he stays healthy all year. I think its a pipe dream to be that optimistic about a rb thats 31+ thats already breaking down two years in a row with major injuries

sorry, just dont see any way to give you any credit for a worthwhile post, since you obviously have your facts incorrect. Breaking down two years in a row? You mean the 2003 season where he played 16 games, totalling 2110 yds and 27 TDs? When did he break down in 2003? I must have missed it.

 

[Shermanator]

sorry, just dont see any way he stays healthy all year. I think its a pipe dream to be that optimistic about a rb thats 31+ thats already breaking down two years in a row with major injuries

sorry, just dont see any way to give you any credit for a worthwhile post, since you obviously have your facts incorrect. Breaking down two years in a row? You mean the 2003 season where he played 16 games, totalling 2110 yds and 27 TDs? When did he break down in 2003? I must have missed it.

you're right. I thought he lost more time due to the hip injury. I wasnt aware it was that late in the season.He is still a high risk player,with a good reserve playing behind him. His PT is almost certain to diminish

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I have had Priest in a keeper league for the last three years and won nothing.  I expect Vermeil to lighten his load a little more this year.  In years past **** has pulled him in the 4th quarter, and sometimes the 3rd.  Granted he had 2 Td's and 100 total by then, and that was great.  I just expect him to work in LJ more and sooner to lighten the load, making Priest just average in total, but tearing it up when he plays, just like LJ.

That's odd. The years you had Priest did you make the playoffs? What did the rest of your roster look like? The fact you won nothing doesn't make Priest a bad pick this season. It does speak to your abilities as a FF owner though that you had one of the top RB in the league and couldn't do anything with him. OUCH!

Well, that's just as odd as your claim that Joe Horn has consistently been on your roster, but never seems to do anything for you. He doesn't put you over the top ever, is what you said.So, you either drafted Horn way too early, or the rest of your drafting sucked.

I knew Cunning Linquist was your alias.Horn and his stats. Again 1 pt per 10 rec...6 pts per TD, 3 pt bonus on 100+ yd games

'01...4,4,4,7,7,27,8,21,17,9,24,22,9,17,1,4

'02...13,15,10,8,6,13,25,12,13,22,4,19,8,6,6,4

'03...14,14,0,4,11,9,22,19,3,2,7,1,14,44,3

'04...14,15,15,15,4,10,12,15,2,25,8,19,31,14,12,7,13

He had under 10 points per game in 43 out of the 65 times he hit the field...or 66% of the time he really did not do that much to help you.

He scored 20+ points in 9 out of those 65 games or 13% of the time. By far he had his best season as far as consistency last year. So the previous 3 seasons I eluded to in an entirely different thread that you blended into this one that has NOTHING TO DO with Priest Holmes and the stats I presented, were in fact justified. Last season actually brings up his stats.

Now there are a lot of WR like Joe Horn...he had his career best last season and will surely be a top candidate to fall from the top5 this year...might not make the top10. Nice to see you come out of the woodwork Sonny.

As you were.

Save the numbers, guy...and your usual attempt at diversion. Look it was YOUR comments, not mine. I just find it funny that you called out somebody (not me -- do an IP check if you want), yet you yourself made almost the same statement regarding a player who never does it for you. It's altogether silly; and that inludes someone claiming Priest didn't "do it".

Horn has finished in the top 10, four out of the last five years. The other year he missed a game, and finished 14th. Last year, he was 3rd.

The point is simple. HORN DID NOT COST YOU SQUAT -- YOU DID.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

200 carries, 1000 yards and 11 td's29 receptions 350 yards and 1 td

 

[Ministry of Pain]

sorry, just dont see any way he stays healthy all year. I think its a pipe dream to be that optimistic about a rb thats 31+ thats already breaking down two years in a row with major injuries

sorry, just dont see any way to give you any credit for a worthwhile post, since you obviously have your facts incorrect. Breaking down two years in a row? You mean the 2003 season where he played 16 games, totalling 2110 yds and 27 TDs? When did he break down in 2003? I must have missed it.

you're right. I thought he lost more time due to the hip injury. I wasnt aware it was that late in the season.He is still a high risk player,with a good reserve playing behind him. His PT is almost certain to diminish

OK Sherm, I'm with you that his playing time might get cut but if he stays healthy...can you see Priest getting 250 carries and 40 reception? LJ getting 100+ touches? Priest getting mostof the touches inside the 5...wait a minute, he just scored again, let me add that to today's total...you get my drift?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have had Priest in a keeper league for the last three years and won nothing.  I expect Vermeil to lighten his load a little more this year.  In years past **** has pulled him in the 4th quarter, and sometimes the 3rd.  Granted he had 2 Td's and 100 total by then, and that was great.  I just expect him to work in LJ more and sooner to lighten the load, making Priest just average in total, but tearing it up when he plays, just like LJ.

That's odd. The years you had Priest did you make the playoffs? What did the rest of your roster look like? The fact you won nothing doesn't make Priest a bad pick this season. It does speak to your abilities as a FF owner though that you had one of the top RB in the league and couldn't do anything with him. OUCH!

Well, that's just as odd as your claim that Joe Horn has consistently been on your roster, but never seems to do anything for you. He doesn't put you over the top ever, is what you said.So, you either drafted Horn way too early, or the rest of your drafting sucked.

I knew Cunning Linquist was your alias.Horn and his stats. Again 1 pt per 10 rec...6 pts per TD, 3 pt bonus on 100+ yd games

'01...4,4,4,7,7,27,8,21,17,9,24,22,9,17,1,4

'02...13,15,10,8,6,13,25,12,13,22,4,19,8,6,6,4

'03...14,14,0,4,11,9,22,19,3,2,7,1,14,44,3

'04...14,15,15,15,4,10,12,15,2,25,8,19,31,14,12,7,13

He had under 10 points per game in 43 out of the 65 times he hit the field...or 66% of the time he really did not do that much to help you.

He scored 20+ points in 9 out of those 65 games or 13% of the time. By far he had his best season as far as consistency last year. So the previous 3 seasons I eluded to in an entirely different thread that you blended into this one that has NOTHING TO DO with Priest Holmes and the stats I presented, were in fact justified. Last season actually brings up his stats.

Now there are a lot of WR like Joe Horn...he had his career best last season and will surely be a top candidate to fall from the top5 this year...might not make the top10. Nice to see you come out of the woodwork Sonny.

As you were.

Save the numbers, guy...and your usual attempt at diversion. Look it was YOUR comments, not mine. I just find it funny that you called out somebody (not me -- do an IP check if you want), yet you yourself made almost the same statement regarding a player who never does it for you. It's altogether silly; and that inludes someone claiming Priest didn't "do it".

Horn has finished in the top 10, four out of the last five years. The other year he missed a game, and finished 14th. Last year, he was 3rd.

The point is simple. HORN DID NOT COST YOU SQUAT -- YOU DID.

Well. I've won in years despite miserable starts ffrom Mr.Horn and periods of abscense.Why would we want to not look at the stats? You are trying to link Priest to Horn in an attempt to humiliate me...it's your style, I've grown acustom to it really. But you are picking the wrong avenue. I just showed you that 66% of the time Horn was not a major factor in the games. Priest on the other hand destroys other teams in 70% of the game he touches the field. Do you not see the difference? or am I just try to smoke up a diversion using numbers again?

SLBD... You try hard to embarrass me as much as you can and I appreciate the flattery, I really do.

 

[el-gato-grande]

200 carries

850 yds

9 tds

done for the year by week 8

sorry, just dont see any way he stays healthy all year. I think its a pipe dream to be that optimistic about a rb thats 31+ thats already breaking down two years in a row with major injuries

I wouldn't call a sprained MCL a "major injury". Priest was held out because there was no need to risk further damage that would threaten his career or a return this season with LJ and Blaylock providing backup. Particulrly since KC's defense kept losing games even when Priest and the league's second ranked offense was scoring at a sick clip. Vermeil knew he couldn't win it all with that defense last year so why risk losing your best player and hurt your chances for a Superbowl run this year?

 

[Knowlt]

Can someone move this to the "Holy off on a Tangent Batman" Forum 280/1204/2249/468/5

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I have had Priest in a keeper league for the last three years and won nothing.  I expect Vermeil to lighten his load a little more this year.  In years past **** has pulled him in the 4th quarter, and sometimes the 3rd.  Granted he had 2 Td's and 100 total by then, and that was great.  I just expect him to work in LJ more and sooner to lighten the load, making Priest just average in total, but tearing it up when he plays, just like LJ.

That's odd. The years you had Priest did you make the playoffs? What did the rest of your roster look like? The fact you won nothing doesn't make Priest a bad pick this season. It does speak to your abilities as a FF owner though that you had one of the top RB in the league and couldn't do anything with him. OUCH!

Well, that's just as odd as your claim that Joe Horn has consistently been on your roster, but never seems to do anything for you. He doesn't put you over the top ever, is what you said.So, you either drafted Horn way too early, or the rest of your drafting sucked.

I knew Cunning Linquist was your alias.Horn and his stats. Again 1 pt per 10 rec...6 pts per TD, 3 pt bonus on 100+ yd games

'01...4,4,4,7,7,27,8,21,17,9,24,22,9,17,1,4

'02...13,15,10,8,6,13,25,12,13,22,4,19,8,6,6,4

'03...14,14,0,4,11,9,22,19,3,2,7,1,14,44,3

'04...14,15,15,15,4,10,12,15,2,25,8,19,31,14,12,7,13

He had under 10 points per game in 43 out of the 65 times he hit the field...or 66% of the time he really did not do that much to help you.

He scored 20+ points in 9 out of those 65 games or 13% of the time. By far he had his best season as far as consistency last year. So the previous 3 seasons I eluded to in an entirely different thread that you blended into this one that has NOTHING TO DO with Priest Holmes and the stats I presented, were in fact justified. Last season actually brings up his stats.

Now there are a lot of WR like Joe Horn...he had his career best last season and will surely be a top candidate to fall from the top5 this year...might not make the top10. Nice to see you come out of the woodwork Sonny.

As you were.

Save the numbers, guy...and your usual attempt at diversion. Look it was YOUR comments, not mine. I just find it funny that you called out somebody (not me -- do an IP check if you want), yet you yourself made almost the same statement regarding a player who never does it for you. It's altogether silly; and that inludes someone claiming Priest didn't "do it".

Horn has finished in the top 10, four out of the last five years. The other year he missed a game, and finished 14th. Last year, he was 3rd.

The point is simple. HORN DID NOT COST YOU SQUAT -- YOU DID.

Well. I've won in years despite miserable starts ffrom Mr.Horn and periods of abscense.Why would we want to not look at the stats? You are trying to link Priest to Horn in an attempt to humiliate me...it's your style, I've grown acustom to it really. But you are picking the wrong avenue. I just showed you that 66% of the time Horn was not a major factor in the games. Priest on the other hand destroys other teams in 70% of the game he touches the field. Do you not see the difference? or am I just try to smoke up a diversion using numbers again?

SLBD... You try hard to embarrass me as much as you can and I appreciate the flattery, I really do.

This isn't personal...just calling it like I see it. If you are going to call someone out, and ironically enough I agree with your assertion, you should also be accountable to your previous statements.And your statement was that Horn has never put you over the top. It's silly, is all. If it is indeed true, then you were drafting him way too early.

In fact, I distinctly remember you claiming to draft Horn in the 4th round. Well, there is NO WAY he cost you a Championship.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Can someone move this to the "Holy off on a Tangent Batman" Forum

You don't think Wood knew this was going to happen?I will check back after lunch.

 

[H.K.]

Interesting trend for Holmes, especially for PPR leagues2001 16 games he caught 62 passes2002 14 games he caught 70 passes2003 16 games he caught 74 passes2004 8 games only 19 recepts (on pace for 38) Seems like a negative trend to me....maybe someone closer to this situation has more to add in Holmes' involvement in the passing game.Here's my best guess:275 carries1,237 yards18 TD29 receptions263 yards1 TD

 

[Knowlt]

3.8 / game to 5 /game to 4.6 / game to an incomplete season is a fairly weak indicator of a negative trend.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Off to lunch, as well.

 

[offdee]

I don't have any projections, just a comment....his situation reminds me so much of Marshall Faulk of about 3 years ago.Most dominant fantasy RB (by far) for a number of consecutive years and everyone wants to believe that will just continue as long as that guy steps on the field. His past dominance overshadows any reasoning towards age and recurring injury having any effect on such a specimin. The same comments of "he's been so head and shoulders above the #2 RB that even with a drop off he'll still end up #1" were applied to Marshall Faulk not too long ago.Unfortunately as Faulk has shown, dominance does eventually come to an end and I have a gut feel that this is the year Priest follows suit. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[H.K.]

3.8 / game to 5 /game to 4.6 / game to an incomplete season is a fairly weak indicator of a negative trend.

True, but 3.8 to 5.0 to 4.6 to 2.4 a game is a negative trend. Do you propose if he didn't get hurt he was going to cacth 50 passes in the last 8 games of 2004, a 6.4 catch a game clip to finish up at the 70 catch mark again?

 

[offdee]

I don't have any projections, just a comment....his situation reminds me so much of Marshall Faulk of about 3 years ago.

Most dominant fantasy RB (by far) for a number of consecutive years and everyone wants to believe that will just continue as long as that guy steps on the field.  His past dominance overshadows any reasoning towards age and recurring injury having any effect on such a specimin.  The same comments of "he's been so head and shoulders above the #2 RB that even with a drop off he'll still end up #1" were applied to Marshall Faulk not too long ago.

Unfortunately as Faulk has shown, dominance does eventually come to an end and I have a gut feel that this is the year Priest follows suit. 

I hope I'm wrong.

Just did a quick search within my Dynasty League that started in 2002 (3 short years ago) and Marshall Faulk was the #1 overall pick....at the time it was as obvious of a #1 pick as Tomlinson is today. Keep in mind that at that time, Faulk was 29 years old....kind of gives you an idea of how dominant of a player he WAS those previous 3-4 years that nobody batted an eye (and actually was expected) to use a #1 overall pick in a startup Dynasty league on a 29 year old RB.

That team ended up 4-9 in 2002 with the "most dominant RB in the game by far". When the dropoff happens, it happens quick.

 

[Knowlt]

5 or 6 a game to get back to 60 would not have been a stretch at all.....

 

[Knowlt]

I don't have any projections, just a comment....his situation reminds me so much of Marshall Faulk of about 3 years ago.

Most dominant fantasy RB (by far) for a number of consecutive years and everyone wants to believe that will just continue as long as that guy steps on the field. His past dominance overshadows any reasoning towards age and recurring injury having any effect on such a specimin. The same comments of "he's been so head and shoulders above the #2 RB that even with a drop off he'll still end up #1" were applied to Marshall Faulk not too long ago.

Unfortunately as Faulk has shown, dominance does eventually come to an end and I have a gut feel that this is the year Priest follows suit.

I hope I'm wrong.

Faulks downfall is a product of him not only getting older/injured, but the gameplan he was forced.Holmes at this point, though the same age, has 55% of Faulks touches (3494 for faulk in 11 seasons), 1928 for Holmes in 7 seasons.

 

[David Yudkin]

3.8 / game to 5 /game to 4.6 / game to an incomplete season is a fairly weak indicator of a negative trend.

True, but 3.8 to 5.0 to 4.6 to 2.4 a game is a negative trend. Do you propose if he didn't get hurt he was going to cacth 50 passes in the last 8 games of 2004, a 6.4 catch a game clip to finish up at the 70 catch mark again?

Holmes lost some receptions but gained in carries, so I call it a wash.2001: 20.4 + 3.9 = 24.3 touches

2002: 22.4 + 5 = 27.4 touches

2003: 20 + 4.6 = 24.6 touches

2004: 24.5 + 2.4 = 26.9 touches

2003: 131.9 total yards and 1.69 TD per game

2004: 134.9 total yards and 1.88 TD per game

Whether he's, running, catching, or throwing the ball, I don't see any real drop off in terms of his production.

 

[offdee]

Faulks downfall is a product of him not only getting older/injured, but the gameplan he was forced.

Holmes at this point, though the same age, has 55% of Faulks touches (3494 for faulk in 11 seasons), 1928 for Holmes in 7 seasons.

Faulk also didn't have any of the injury history that Priest has had. I would think that in itself would make up for the difference in carries in regards to the "overall toll on their bodies".

 

[H.K.]

5 or 6 a game to get back to 60 would not have been a stretch at all.....

True, but we'll never know because it did not happen. He also could have only caught 10 more passes, too. Supposition versus fact arguments are a waste of time. In the games he did play, his receptions were way down. As Yudkin added, his touches were on par with previous years.

However, my post referred specifically to PPR leagues, so reception totals matter a bit more than just total yards.

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

KC has rushed the ball about an average of 460 times per year, since 2001, including 496 times last year. They've averaged about 30 rushing TD's since 2002, with Priest getting 48 of 58 in 02 & 03. Prior to last year, Priest averaged about 71% of the total carries each year. You would have to think with the emergence of LJ, and Priest's past injuries, his % of the teams carries should go down a bit. If KC rushes the ball 460 times, and assuming Priest plays all season I'll say:

295/1386/19 & 50/480/2 receiving - with the possiblity of doing better if given 70% plus of the total carries.

I for one am not all that worried about him playing all season, or worried about having to take LJ a little early. If you cover yourself, you'll be fine. What worries me more, is if Priest drops down below about 60% of the teams total carries when he is in there. It would also be nice to see his reception total return to where it was before last year.

 

[David Yudkin]

KC has rushed the ball about an average of 460 times per year, since 2001, including 496 times last year. They've averaged about 30 rushing TD's since 2002, with Priest getting 48 of 58 in 02 & 03. Prior to last year, Priest averaged about 71% of the total carries each year. You would have to think with the emergence of LJ, and Priest's past injuries, his % of the teams carries should go down a bit. If KC rushes the ball 460 times, and assuming Priest plays all season I'll say:

295/1386/19 & 50/480/2 receiving - with the possiblity of doing better if given 70% plus of the total carries.

I for one am not all that worried about him playing all season, or worried about having to take LJ a little early. If you cover yourself, you'll be fine. What worries me more, is if Priest drops down below about 60% of the teams total carries when he is in there. It would also be nice to see his reception total return to where it was before last year.

This is where I get lost (not by the post but from the numbers). If Priest has the season as depicted here, that still leaves 900 yards and 12 rushing TD left over compared to where KC has been producing. If we give all that to LJ (in addition to say the same receiving totals from last year (272/2), that would give Johnson 200 fantasy points ON HIS OWN and would rank him as a Top 10-12 RB!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

KC has rushed the ball about an average of 460 times per year, since 2001, including 496 times last year.  They've averaged about 30 rushing TD's since 2002, with Priest getting 48 of 58 in 02 & 03.  Prior to last year, Priest averaged about 71% of the total carries each year.  You would have to think with the emergence of LJ, and Priest's past injuries, his % of the teams carries should go down a bit.  If KC rushes the ball 460 times, and assuming Priest plays all season I'll say:

295/1386/19 & 50/480/2 receiving - with the possiblity of doing better if given 70% plus of the total carries.

I for one am not all that worried about him playing all season, or worried about having to take LJ a little early.  If you cover yourself, you'll be fine.  What worries me more, is if Priest drops down below about 60% of the teams total carries when he is in there.  It would also be nice to see his reception total return to where it was before last year.

This is where I get lost (not by the post but from the numbers). If Priest has the season as depicted here, that still leaves 900 yards and 12 rushing TD left over compared to where KC has been producing. If we give all that to LJ (in addition to say the same receiving totals from last year (272/2), that would give Johnson 200 fantasy points ON HIS OWN and would rank him as a Top 10-12 RB!

EXACTLY! So let's just draft them both and start both of them every week...you're bound to net 30+ points between the 2 of them...You can get a great WR duo in the 2nd/3rd round, come back in the 5th with Kerry Collins/Donal Driver...Yudkin, you and I are in complete agreement on this. I see KC going very far this season...maybe even the Super Bowl, they have made strides on defense and Vermeil and crew are not coming back to simply tidy things up. Priest and that whole offense want to get far into the playoffs...I think they will.