Player Spotlight: Priest Holmes (1 Viewer)

[Jackstraw]

Does anyone remember the shot he took to the knee? Kind of a dirty low hit and it was wicked. I don't care if you're 11 that kind of shot is going to hurt. I just don't see how his age contributed towards that injury. McGahee's leg snapped like a twig and he was like 21 at the time. This guy has loads of character and toughness. I think he is a special athlete with a special offensive unit. I will live or die with him if given the chance. 275 carries 1,320 yds 22 TDs 50 receptions 350 yards and 3 TDs. AND vaults himself into hall of fame consideration with almost 9,000 career rushing yards and over 100 career TD's.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Does anyone remember the shot he took to the knee? Kind of a dirty low hit and it was wicked. I don't care if you're 11 that kind of shot is going to hurt. I just don't see how his age contributed towards that injury.

McGahee's leg snapped like a twig and he was like 21 at the time. This guy has loads of character and toughness. I think he is a special athlete with a special offensive unit. I will live or die with him if given the chance.

275 carries 1,320 yds 22 TDs 50 receptions 350 yards and 3 TDs.

AND vaults himself into hall of fame consideration with almost 9,000 career rushing yards and over 100 career TD's.

Very Important 1-2 more ridiculous type seasons and he has to be a HoF candidate...just has dominated. No real WR threat...QB is average. OL is pretty rock solid. Defense has been terrible.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Faulks downfall is a product of him not only getting older/injured, but the gameplan he was forced.

Holmes at this point, though the same age, has 55% of Faulks touches (3494 for faulk in 11 seasons), 1928 for Holmes in 7 seasons.

Faulk also didn't have any of the injury history that Priest has had. I would think that in itself would make up for the difference in carries in regards to the "overall toll on their bodies".

You two might as well add the playing surfaces into your equation.

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

KC has rushed the ball about an average of 460 times per year, since 2001, including 496 times last year.  They've averaged about 30 rushing TD's since 2002, with Priest getting 48 of 58 in 02 & 03.  Prior to last year, Priest averaged about 71% of the total carries each year.  You would have to think with the emergence of LJ, and Priest's past injuries, his % of the teams carries should go down a bit.  If KC rushes the ball 460 times, and assuming Priest plays all season I'll say:

295/1386/19 & 50/480/2 receiving - with the possiblity of doing better if given 70% plus of the total carries.

I for one am not all that worried about him playing all season, or worried about having to take LJ a little early.  If you cover yourself, you'll be fine.  What worries me more, is if Priest drops down below about 60% of the teams total carries when he is in there.  It would also be nice to see his reception total return to where it was before last year.

This is where I get lost (not by the post but from the numbers). If Priest has the season as depicted here, that still leaves 900 yards and 12 rushing TD left over compared to where KC has been producing. If we give all that to LJ (in addition to say the same receiving totals from last year (272/2), that would give Johnson 200 fantasy points ON HIS OWN and would rank him as a Top 10-12 RB!

The way I see it, if they rush the ball 460 times and Priest gets 295, you have to give T. Green + other RB's & FB's about 50 total, leaving about 115 carries for LJ. At say 4.7ypc, he'll have about 540 yards rushing, plus receiving totals. I do see him nearing 10 TD's, with mop-up time and regular playing time giving Priest a blow. If you put KC closer to 500 carries like last year, you could obviously bump them each up a little.

 

[Cunning Linguist]

Does anyone remember the shot he took to the knee? Kind of a dirty low hit and it was wicked. I don't care if you're 11 that kind of shot is going to hurt. I just don't see how his age contributed towards that injury.

McGahee's leg snapped like a twig and he was like 21 at the time. This guy has loads of character and toughness. I think he is a special athlete with a special offensive unit. I will live or die with him if given the chance.

275 carries 1,320 yds 22 TDs 50 receptions 350 yards and 3 TDs.

AND vaults himself into hall of fame consideration with almost 9,000 career rushing yards and over 100 career TD's.

The injury had nothing to do with the age, but the age has everything to do with the recovery time. He hasn't played football since what, last October? As I said earlier, Priest complained during the season last year that it takes him 5 days to recover froma game enough to practice. He was questionable/doubtful\probable all season long leading up to the injury.

 

[David Yudkin]

KC has rushed the ball about an average of 460 times per year, since 2001, including 496 times last year.  They've averaged about 30 rushing TD's since 2002, with Priest getting 48 of 58 in 02 & 03.  Prior to last year, Priest averaged about 71% of the total carries each year.  You would have to think with the emergence of LJ, and Priest's past injuries, his % of the teams carries should go down a bit.  If KC rushes the ball 460 times, and assuming Priest plays all season I'll say:

295/1386/19 & 50/480/2 receiving - with the possiblity of doing better if given 70% plus of the total carries.

I for one am not all that worried about him playing all season, or worried about having to take LJ a little early.  If you cover yourself, you'll be fine.  What worries me more, is if Priest drops down below about 60% of the teams total carries when he is in there.  It would also be nice to see his reception total return to where it was before last year.

This is where I get lost (not by the post but from the numbers). If Priest has the season as depicted here, that still leaves 900 yards and 12 rushing TD left over compared to where KC has been producing. If we give all that to LJ (in addition to say the same receiving totals from last year (272/2), that would give Johnson 200 fantasy points ON HIS OWN and would rank him as a Top 10-12 RB!

The way I see it, if they rush the ball 460 times and Priest gets 295, you have to give T. Green + other RB's & FB's about 50 total, leaving about 115 carries for LJ. At say 4.7ypc, he'll have about 540 yards rushing, plus receiving totals. I do see him nearing 10 TD's, with mop-up time and regular playing time giving Priest a blow. If you put KC closer to 500 carries like last year, you could obviously bump them each up a little.

Last year (and I admit each year is different). Holmes/Blaylock/LJ totalled 434 carries, 66 receptions, 2721 total yards, and 35 TD. There is no one else on the roster with any real experience at tailback (unless Richardson gets some more carries). If we took out the projected numbers for Holmes as the poster indicated, that would leave LJ with almost 900 total yards and 14 TD. That's still around 175 fantasy points and would get Johnson in the Top 20 (I added in receiving totals twice for Johnson in my original post).Certainly, one can argue that the Chiefs ground assault will not be as potent, and therefore those totals are too high . . .

 

[Tackling Dummies]

I see KC going very far this season...maybe even the Super Bowl, they have made strides on defense and Vermeil and crew are not coming back to simply tidy things up. Priest and that whole offense want to get far into the playoffs...I think they will.

 

[Raiders Fan]

Too risky to be a top pick.. Like Bonds in baseball age is a bad factor. Especially to runningbacks. For my case I will NEVER invest in a RB over 30 with a 1st rounder. He turns 32 coming off another injury. His YPC have dropped from 2001-2002. Just too many negatives to take him as your top pick.. MOP you really pimping him hard. I guess you bought him this year. My stats225/1000/12 40/375/2Of course I am expecting him to miss 6-8 games also this year.. Don't think he can take the pounding. I guess I will never own him..

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Too risky to be a top pick..  Like Bonds in baseball age is a bad factor.  Especially to runningbacks.  For my case I will NEVER invest in a RB over 30 with a 1st rounder.  He turns 32 coming off another injury.  His YPC have dropped from 2001-2002.  Just too many negatives to take him as your top pick..  MOP you really pimping him hard.  I guess you bought him this year. 

My stats

225/1000/12    40/375/2

Of course I am expecting him to miss 6-8 games also this year.. Don't think he can take the pounding.  I guess I will never own him..

This guy is not DeShaun Foster for pete's sake. You people are gonna give him a 6-8 game layoff for injury? How many does Edge get? He missed half a season 3 years ago. How bout McGahee? ANy injury concerns there? McAllister? C.Brown? A.Green? LT? He did have a groin injury last year. Where do you draw the line?Doesn't anyone beside Yudkin and I see that Priest only becomes stronger with LJ behind him?(I knowthere are a lot) Even if Priest misses time, it would seem LJ has a great shot to still post quality numbers...he scored 2 TD in 5 str8 games last season...name another RB that did that..and as a back-up?

I understand the hate for KC and when you face Priest it's not fair...I really do. I wish it were not this way but facts are facts. He is 31...will turn 32 in October...as has been noted he does not have the ware and tear some people think in hear. Is Priest gonna play a lot longer? NO! He is not worth a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick in a dynasty draft for sure...but in a re-draft? C'mon.

Edited to add: I have not made a pick up of him yet in any of my leagues...but I have a #1 pick in 1 legue, #2 in a dynasty league(I won't be taking him in that one)...and some that are yet to be determined.

 

[Raiders Fan]

AGEThat's the difference.. It's well known that with age injury happens a lot more often.. Whether he has high miles or low miles its known that a running backs best days are prior to 30. He turns 32 in October and already has shown that injury is effecting him. I am not saying this out of the blue like he's played 5 straight injury free years. He has had injuries the last 2 years. Granted one didn't effect fantasy wise 1 year but the next did.. It's a bad trend I feel isn't worth a 1st rounder due to the risk being more then the reward. Argue it all you want but I would love to see facts. I am basing my opinions on facts and trends.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

AGE

That's the difference.. It's well known that with age injury happens a lot more often.. Whether he has high miles or low miles its known that a running backs best days are prior to 30. He turns 32 in October and already has shown that injury is effecting him. I am not saying this out of the blue like he's played 5 straight injury free years. He has had injuries the last 2 years. Granted one didn't effect fantasy wise 1 year but the next did.. It's a bad trend I feel isn't worth a 1st rounder due to the risk being more then the reward. Argue it all you want but I would love to see facts. I am basing my opinions on facts and trends.

Martin, Dunn, Dillon, Barber...all are 30+ heading into this season...are they all gonna stink. Martin is another guy that benefits from opp.Let's look at it in a nother light. A-F.

Opps: (A) Priest gets 300 touches per season usually or more and he gets almost all of the redzone rush TD when he is in uniform.

Ability: (A) Not a lot needed to be written here.

Surrounding Cast: (A/B) Good OL, QB, TE/WR, good quality backup, defense is skiddish which helps make him produce more

Schedule: (B) Does it matter?

Intangibles: (D) Let's assume he might get hurt just like any other NFL RB.

With a 30/30/20/10/10 weghted scale I use in my charts...He get a solid A for the most part...definitely deserves to be in the top tier RBs. One of the few to get an A and another A in Opps and Ability. This may seem confusing, feel free to do a search of my RB tier thread from 1 and 2 years ago...it will make more sense.

 

[Raiders Fan]

AGE

That's the difference.. It's well known that with age injury happens a lot more often..  Whether he has high miles or low miles its known that a running backs best days are prior to 30.  He turns 32 in October and already has shown that injury is effecting him.  I am not saying this out of the blue like he's played 5 straight injury free years.  He has had injuries the last 2 years.  Granted one didn't effect fantasy wise 1 year but the next did..  It's a bad trend I feel isn't worth a 1st rounder due to the risk being more then the reward.  Argue it all you want but I would love to see facts.  I am basing my opinions on facts and trends.

Martin, Dunn, Dillon, Barber...all are 30+ heading into this season...are they all gonna stink. Martin is another guy that benefits from opp.Let's look at it in a nother light. A-F.

Opps: (A) Priest gets 300 touches per season usually or more and he gets almost all of the redzone rush TD when he is in uniform.

Ability: (A) Not a lot needed to be written here.

Surrounding Cast: (A/B) Good OL, QB, TE/WR, good quality backup, defense is skiddish which helps make him produce more

Schedule: (B) Does it matter?

Intangibles: (D) Let's assume he might get hurt just like any other NFL RB.

With a 30/30/20/10/10 weghted scale I use in my charts...He get a solid A for the most part...definitely deserves to be in the top tier RBs. One of the few to get an A and another A in Opps and Ability. This may seem confusing, feel free to do a search of my RB tier thread from 1 and 2 years ago...it will make more sense.

Of those RB's listed how many are coming off 2 years of injuries?? The others won't stink but when you start looking at the risks its mounting for Priest . That's not what I want in a #1 pick. He has a good cast thats why when he is in he will put up decent numbers. I am not knocking his talent but I am knocking his durability. Schedule if its anything they have the 2nd hardest against the run. Funny thng the AFC West has the toughest schedule vs the run, based on last years numbers. Maybe he proves me wrong.. I hope he does to give me some faith in over 30 RB's coming back from major injures.

 

[David Yudkin]

People can point to injury risk all they want when it comes to Holmes, but the fact of the matter is that Holmes has missed almost the exact number of games he'd be expected to have missed in KC. IIRC, the average number of games missed by starting NFL is in the 2.3 games per year range (I did the math once and that's what I came up with). Holmes has played 4 years in KC and missed 10 games. 2.3 * 4 = 9.2 games.As I've outlined in about 5 other threads, the Holmes/LJ combination (used to fill your RB1 slot) could easily outscore any other single RB by 100 points on a season. I base that on 500 total fantasy points scored by Holmes and LJ with 100 points overlapping (ie both playing in the same game)--so 400 points as a RB1. If you look at the Chiefs RB scoring from the past few years, this is not unreasonable--they've done that for 3 years straight.So basically, if you take THE TANDEM of Holmes and Johnson, you are relatively well protected to average around 25 ppg at your RB1 slot. LT and SA are normally around 300 points on a season (18.75 ppg)--and that's comparing the situation to only the other 2 top RB--think of the value vs other RB1 lower on the food chain. And if the Chiefs decide to SPLIT carries almost evenly, then you can use Johnson as a great RB2. If this were the case, it's not inconceivable that BOTH Holmes and Johnson could rank in the Top 10--the Chiefs RB production is that good.

 

[lebowski]

And if the Chiefs decide to SPLIT carries almost evenly, then you can use Johnson as a great RB2. If this were the case, it's not inconceivable that BOTH Holmes and Johnson could rank in the Top 10--the Chiefs RB production is that good.

That would be UNREAL!!! two top ten on the same team...I'm sold. On another note...I know you are pretty high on this Priest/LJ combo David. Do any of the other staff share your opinion?

 

[Raiders Fan]

The combo would be great if you could get it.. There usually is 1 person in the league that will try to stop you from doing it cause he does have value. I doubt the priest owner in my league gets him.. He will be one of the highest taken backups..

 

[lebowski]

The combo would be great if you could get it.. There usually is 1 person in the league that will try to stop you from doing it cause he does have value. I doubt the priest owner in my league gets him.. He will be one of the highest taken backups..

i would take him in round 4 early5...you thik someone will take him before that?

 

[David Yudkin]

And if the Chiefs decide to SPLIT carries almost evenly, then you can use Johnson as a great RB2.  If this were the case, it's not inconceivable that BOTH Holmes and Johnson could rank in the Top 10--the Chiefs RB production is that good.

That would be UNREAL!!! two top ten on the same team...I'm sold. On another note...I know you are pretty high on this Priest/LJ combo David. Do any of the other staff share your opinion?

I don't think others have run the numbers like I have, and I do believe that the LJ/Holmes combo offers a decided scoring advantage if you are in a position to get it.I think most haven't played around with the numbers. FBG's projection currently has the Holmes/Johnson tandem at 415 points on the season, which is a little bit more conservative than I'm projecting them at.

I see the Chiefs defense being better than in years past (at least a little bit), and several people are suggesting that the team will pass less frequently and less effectively. Add those two together, and I see KC running the ball MORE not less.

Maybe the team is getting too old and players will start to be less effective or get more nagging injuries. But up until now, I have not seen any of that impact their running back production. Over the last 3 seasons, the Chiefs' RB have scored 96 TD. The #2 team is Denver--with 64. That's 50% more than the #2 team.

The risk here (or the argument against) is that to get this pair you need to invest another early pick to get Johnson--like a 4th or 5th rounder. I still say that whoever you pass up to get Johnson, the guy that you would have taken will not outscore your replacement pick by as much as the KC RB will score.

IIRC, Johnson's ADP is around 5.10 in a 12-team draft. Let's say you would have taken Donald Driver instead. If all your other picks remain constant (same WR2 in Round 6 and same WR3 in Round 7 just for argument's sake) and you have to play Rod Smith instead of Driver, their scoring difference is projected at only 10-15 points over the course of the season.

You may need to add another RB or two later on to get some RB depth, but I definitely think that the positives outweigh the negatives.

 

[JAMMIN]

I think age is a factor with injuries and recovery time. Saying that I dont see Priest playing more than 9-10 games. However he will be dominant when he plays. LJ will be spelled more often but Priest will get his. I am going on a limb but I think he gets hurt and retires this year. I also think I'll draft him if given the opportunity just because he MAY win me a championship all by himself. Sounds contradicting but you have to roll the dice to get those 30 points a game. Personally I think McGahee in the top five is risker with J.P HOUSEMAN. rushing 1150/15 rec 275/3I hope i'm wrong and the old man runs wild again and throw up 25tds and 2000+ yds from scrimmage.

 

[pizzatyme]

200 carries, 1000 yards and 11 td's

29 receptions 350 yards and 1 td

Priest could score 11 TD's on the way to the Gatorade stand! You are out of your mind with that projection!240/1200/18

40/450/4

Total..280/1650/22

Pedestrian for Padre, but #1 in all of the land!

 

[lebowski]

Quote from Vermeil today about Priest and LJ situation...

Link: http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2005/08/01/qa..._dick_vermeil5/

Q&A with **** VERMEIL

Aug 01, 2005, 11:06:59 AM

TRAINING CAMP

Morning

Q: What’s the possibility of Larry Johnson taking a little more of the workload off of Priest Holmes this season to keep his legs fresh?

**** VERMEIL: “Priest Holmes is our starting running back and Larry Johnson is his backup. They’ll both play and if you follow Priest’s career it’s go, go, go and all of a sudden he needs a blow and comes out. There might be a few things we program in the backfield for both of them at the same time but right now I don’t anticipate this guy carries the ball six times and the other guy carries it five times sort of arrangement. I think the game and flow will dictate all of that.”

Q: But there’s no conscious effort to change the way you’ve been doing it?

VERMEIL: “Not at this moment, no.”

My personal feeling about Priest is that he will play a full season but lose some carries. I have him at 1300 ru 22 tds 350 rec 2 TDs

 

[zadok]

For 3 years now people have been doubting the Priest, coming up with every excuse in the book why he won't dominate again. He just keeps proving them wrong year after year. Even when only playing half a season he is still an elite RB!He is the youngest 31 year old in the NFL (was never a full time player until 2001) so this "old man" talk is just foolish. And as much as some would have you believe, you CANNOT accurately forcast injury. Once Holmes' production starts to slip, then let him slip down your rankings. His per game averages are beyond compare, so invest with confidence. 300/1425/2450/475/2

 

[pizzatyme]

I look at this tandem as a plus both in a redraft and a dynasty situation.Redraft, it is pretty obvious and worn out the arguments for Drafting Priest with the 1st and David Yudkin is correct to a T with taking LJ and outscoring RB1 WR2 with your RB tandem.Dynasty, I like Holmes for this season and LJ for the future. Why would you be any worse off if you consider LJ the future stud in KC?I traded Dom Davis str8 up for Priest in my 14 team, 9 keeper league. I have LJ as one of my keepers. I feel like I stole candt from a baby with that trade!

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The old proverb stays true here."You can't win your league in the first round....unless you take Priest Holmes."305/1400/2650/450/1

 

[ds857]

For those who love Priest, would you take him #1 overall? over LT2?if he can really get you 100 pts over the next RB, why not roll the dice and take him #1? why or why not?or is LT2 just that safe of a pick that you have to take him #1?

 

[pizzatyme]

For those who love Priest, would you take him #1 overall? over LT2?

if he can really get you 100 pts over the next RB, why not roll the dice and take him #1? why or why not?

or is LT2 just that safe of a pick that you have to take him #1?

I wouldn't hesitate to take Priest at 1.01 and LJ at 4.12

 

[Raiders Fan]

For those who love Priest, would you take him #1 overall?  over LT2?

if he can really get you 100 pts over the next RB, why not roll the dice and take him #1?  why or why not?

or is LT2 just that safe of a pick that you have to take him #1?

I wouldn't hesitate to take Priest at 1.01 and LJ at 4.12

2 of your first 4 picks on 1 spot? That's insane.. Amazing the thinking.

 

[el-gato-grande]

I think it's the timing of the Padre's injuries that has all these people's shorts in a bunch. If he were to get injured early, but be around at playoff time and win fantasy championships like the wrecking ball he normally is, then I believe the negative energy against Holmes wouldn't be quite so strong on this board. But, nobody can predict or time these things. That is, of course, unless you're missing playing time for selling illegal drugs for friends, smacking your wife/girlfriend around, or smoking weed.

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

I have the #2 pick in my PPR league, and at this time I am leaning towards Priest. If I had the #1, I would go with LT for sure. He is very strong in a PPR league, and is as close to a sure thing that you could get. Maybe the guy at #1 will read this board and take Priest, so I can snag LT.

 

[pizzatyme]

For those who love Priest, would you take him #1 overall?  over LT2?

if he can really get you 100 pts over the next RB, why not roll the dice and take him #1?  why or why not?

or is LT2 just that safe of a pick that you have to take him #1?

I wouldn't hesitate to take Priest at 1.01 and LJ at 4.12

2 of your first 4 picks on 1 spot? That's insane.. Amazing the thinking.

First off, this 1 spot could easily become 2 spots if they use LJ to spell Priest and Priest stays healthy all year. I'd take the assurance(and the points) of the KC RB position over most of the alternatives.Secondly, IF Priest were to get hurt, you STILL have the most dominant running game with a very capable LJ to rely on.

And finally, if it makes you feel better, I'll go Priest 1.01 and LJ 5.01...

 

[David Yudkin]

For those who love Priest, would you take him #1 overall?  over LT2?

if he can really get you 100 pts over the next RB, why not roll the dice and take him #1?  why or why not?

or is LT2 just that safe of a pick that you have to take him #1?

I wouldn't hesitate to take Priest at 1.01 and LJ at 4.12

2 of your first 4 picks on 1 spot? That's insane.. Amazing the thinking.

Here is a team you could theoretically get using current ADP info:1.01 RB Priest Holmes

2.12 WR Chad Johnson

3.01 RB Curtis Martin

4.12 RB Larry Johnson

5.01 WR Anquan Boldin

6.12 WR Isaac Bruce

7.01 QB Jake Plummer

8.12 WR Charles Rogers

9.01 RB Mewelde Moore

10.12 QB Steve McNair

11.01 TE Jeb Putzier

12.12 DEF Tampa Bay

13.01 PK David Akers

I see nothing wrong with a team along these lines (you could even take other backup or part-time RB along the way as well. And I don't see this team "losing out" much by taking Priest and LJ.

 

[ds857]

For those who love Priest, would you take him #1 overall?  over LT2?

if he can really get you 100 pts over the next RB, why not roll the dice and take him #1?  why or why not?

or is LT2 just that safe of a pick that you have to take him #1?

I wouldn't hesitate to take Priest at 1.01 and LJ at 4.12

2 of your first 4 picks on 1 spot? That's insane.. Amazing the thinking.

Here is a team you could theoretically get using current ADP info:1.01 RB Priest Holmes

2.12 WR Chad Johnson

3.01 RB Curtis Martin

4.12 RB Larry Johnson

5.01 WR Anquan Boldin

6.12 WR Isaac Bruce

7.01 QB Jake Plummer

8.12 WR Charles Rogers

9.01 RB Mewelde Moore

10.12 QB Steve McNair

11.01 TE Jeb Putzier

12.12 DEF Tampa Bay

13.01 PK David Akers

I see nothing wrong with a team along these lines (you could even take other backup or part-time RB along the way as well. And I don't see this team "losing out" much by taking Priest and LJ.

would you grab 2 top 5/6 WR (if they drop to you) at the end of the 2nd and start of the 3rd knowing Priest's injury history and the fact that you have to grab LJ in the 5th? or would you have to go with one RB and one WR at the 2nd and 3rd because you took Priest? What if the league plays 2RB and 3WR, would that make a difference?

 

[Raiders Fan]

Not my cup of tea.. I don't like taking early round picks as backups.. Its points sitting on a bench.. For security. Also what your saying things would also have to work out just right. As far as those middle round guys performing. We also don't know what the other teams wold look like but I can see a loss in a lot of areas to secure that 1RB spot.. Like I said not for me.. If you think its worth it go for it.. I haven't seen it done yet.. in real drafts..

 

[David Yudkin]

For those who love Priest, would you take him #1 overall?  over LT2?

if he can really get you 100 pts over the next RB, why not roll the dice and take him #1?  why or why not?

or is LT2 just that safe of a pick that you have to take him #1?

I wouldn't hesitate to take Priest at 1.01 and LJ at 4.12

2 of your first 4 picks on 1 spot? That's insane.. Amazing the thinking.

Here is a team you could theoretically get using current ADP info:1.01 RB Priest Holmes

2.12 WR Chad Johnson

3.01 RB Curtis Martin

4.12 RB Larry Johnson

5.01 WR Anquan Boldin

6.12 WR Isaac Bruce

7.01 QB Jake Plummer

8.12 WR Charles Rogers

9.01 RB Mewelde Moore

10.12 QB Steve McNair

11.01 TE Jeb Putzier

12.12 DEF Tampa Bay

13.01 PK David Akers

I see nothing wrong with a team along these lines (you could even take other backup or part-time RB along the way as well. And I don't see this team "losing out" much by taking Priest and LJ.

would you grab 2 top 5/6 WR (if they drop to you) at the end of the 2nd and start of the 3rd knowing Priest's injury history and the fact that you have to grab LJ in the 5th? or would you have to go with one RB and one WR at the 2nd and 3rd because you took Priest? What if the league plays 2RB and 3WR, would that make a difference?

I have already been in several drafts this year and have seen two of the following available in many drafts: Holt, Harrison, CJ, Owens available at the 2.12/3.01 turn. Other guys that have been there have been Walker and Horn. I think taking two from the first group and am not so sure about Horn/Walker.A lot depends on how much you trust your drafting ability and your trust in getting another RB later on. IMO, you can get some decent POTENTIAL RB choices later in the draft, but there is certainly more risk involved in that approach.

I would take 2 WR there if available and try to get another RB the next pass by, although I wouldn't reach for someone that is not worthy of consideration. If you draft properly, the gains you get at other positions should offset the production you stand to lose at RB (if any).

So I can see going Priest-WR-WR-LJ-RB if that other RB spot is worth it. Guys that may be around there include Dunn, Taylor, Foster, CBrown, Benson, Staley, Barlow.

 

[pizzatyme]

For those who love Priest, would you take him #1 overall?  over LT2?

if he can really get you 100 pts over the next RB, why not roll the dice and take him #1?  why or why not?

or is LT2 just that safe of a pick that you have to take him #1?

I wouldn't hesitate to take Priest at 1.01 and LJ at 4.12

2 of your first 4 picks on 1 spot? That's insane.. Amazing the thinking.

Here is a team you could theoretically get using current ADP info:1.01 RB Priest Holmes

2.12 WR Chad Johnson

3.01 RB Curtis Martin

4.12 RB Larry Johnson

5.01 WR Anquan Boldin

6.12 WR Isaac Bruce

7.01 QB Jake Plummer

8.12 WR Charles Rogers

9.01 RB Mewelde Moore

10.12 QB Steve McNair

11.01 TE Jeb Putzier

12.12 DEF Tampa Bay

13.01 PK David Akers

I see nothing wrong with a team along these lines (you could even take other backup or part-time RB along the way as well. And I don't see this team "losing out" much by taking Priest and LJ.

would you grab 2 top 5/6 WR (if they drop to you) at the end of the 2nd and start of the 3rd knowing Priest's injury history and the fact that you have to grab LJ in the 5th? or would you have to go with one RB and one WR at the 2nd and 3rd because you took Priest? What if the league plays 2RB and 3WR, would that make a difference?

I have already been in several drafts this year and have seen two of the following available in many drafts: Holt, Harrison, CJ, Owens available at the 2.12/3.01 turn. Other guys that have been there have been Walker and Horn. I think taking two from the first group and am not so sure about Horn/Walker.A lot depends on how much you trust your drafting ability and your trust in getting another RB later on. IMO, you can get some decent POTENTIAL RB choices later in the draft, but there is certainly more risk involved in that approach.

I would take 2 WR there if available and try to get another RB the next pass by, although I wouldn't reach for someone that is not worthy of consideration. If you draft properly, the gains you get at other positions should offset the production you stand to lose at RB (if any).

So I can see going Priest-WR-WR-LJ-RB if that other RB spot is worth it. Guys that may be around there include Dunn, Taylor, Foster, CBrown, Benson, Staley, Barlow.

With any two of those 4 WR's available at the 2.12/3.01 turn, I would jump all over them. This would only solidify my selection of LJ at 5.01!And, if those Wr's aren't available then it means that you have had a very good RB slip to you at the 2.12 spot, correct?

I think you could get any 1 of those 4 WR's plus another RB and still have a nice team developing.

 

[Urinal Mint]

My bold predictions:Rushing 280 / 1300 / 18Receiving 30 / 280 / 1

 

[isiahcleaves]

I just started a draft in my 12 team league that requires:1 starting QB1 starting RB3 starting WR's 1 starting TE1 non-QB flex6 points for all TD'sfairly standard yardage bonusesa half point per reception for WR's and TE's with no bonuses for RB'sAt the #2 spot (through 3 rounds), I went:1.2 = Priest (LT went 1st)2.11 = Chad Johnson (5th WR taken)3.2 = Javon Walker (6th WR taken)With the above starting lineup requirements, would it be wise to take LJ at the 4-5 turn or wait for the 6-7 turn?QB's are pretty big scorers in this league, so I'd like to get one at the 4-5 turn, but if I do and grab LJ, then I'd only have 1 starting RB (which is all that's required anyway).Just to give people some idea that may have drafts coming up, at my 2nd round pick (17 RB's, 4 WR's, and 1 QB were picked). Curtis Martin and Pepper went at the turn. Available RB's at 3.2 that I considered before I decided on Walker were Westy and Bell.

 

[IanTucker]

As the preseason progresses and people actually see Holmes run, Larry Johnson will begin to sink in the ADP rankings. Spending a #5 pick on Johnson without owning Holmes is bad drafting. Holmes is my #1 pick this year...I'll take him over Tomlinson if I get the chance.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

For those who love Priest, would you take him #1 overall? over LT2?

if he can really get you 100 pts over the next RB, why not roll the dice and take him #1? why or why not?

or is LT2 just that safe of a pick that you have to take him #1?

Absolutely.What people fail to realize when complaining about having to take LJ is that the difference between KC starting RB and LT is not negligible, in fact it's a BIGGER gap than the difference between LT and Warrick Dunn in terms of FF points.

Would you trade Dunn + 5th round pick for LT? My guess is yes, and that's actually a smaller point gain than upgrading from LT to starting KC RB (which you would lock up with Priest/LJ, and note that these numbers were drawn using only stats that the KC RBs got when they started, I did not take pts from games in which they came in as a backup into account so there's no overdraw of pts here).

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I just started a draft in my 12 team league that requires:

1 starting QB

1 starting RB

3 starting WR's

1 starting TE

1 non-QB flex

6 points for all TD's

fairly standard yardage bonuses

a half point per reception for WR's and TE's with no bonuses for RB's

At the #2 spot (through 3 rounds), I went:

1.2  = Priest (LT went 1st)

2.11 = Chad Johnson (5th WR taken)

3.2  = Javon Walker (6th WR taken)

With the above starting lineup requirements, would it be wise to take LJ at the 4-5 turn or wait for the 6-7 turn?

QB's are pretty big scorers in this league, so I'd like to get one at the 4-5 turn, but if I do and grab LJ, then I'd only have 1 starting RB (which is all that's required anyway).

Just to give people some idea that may have drafts coming up, at my 2nd round pick (17 RB's, 4 WR's, and 1 QB were picked).

Curtis Martin and Pepper went at the turn. 

Available RB's at 3.2 that I considered before I decided on Walker were Westy and Bell.

If you only start 1RB, definitely grab LT with the 5th round pick...your backfield is locked up for the year basically.Priest

Chad Johnson

Javon Walker as your WR2...that's sick.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

As the preseason progresses and people actually see Holmes run, Larry Johnson will begin to sink in the ADP rankings. Spending a #5 pick on Johnson without owning Holmes is bad drafting.

Holmes is my #1 pick this year...I'll take him over Tomlinson if I get the chance.

400 something member numbers think alike.

 

[Tau837]

As the preseason progresses and people actually see Holmes run, Larry Johnson will begin to sink in the ADP rankings.  Spending a #5 pick on Johnson without owning Holmes is bad drafting.

Holmes is my #1 pick this year...I'll take him over Tomlinson if I get the chance.

400 something member numbers think alike.

 

[Tau837]

Would you trade Dunn + 5th round pick for LT? My guess is yes, and that's actually a smaller point gain than upgrading from LT to starting KC RB (which you would lock up with Priest/LJ, and note that these numbers were drawn using only stats that the KC RBs got when they started, I did not take pts from games in which they came in as a backup into account so there's no overdraw of pts here).

Good info here.

 

[Tau837]

Here is a team you could theoretically get using current ADP info:1.01 RB Priest Holmes 2.12 WR Chad Johnson3.01 RB Curtis Martin4.12 RB Larry Johnson5.01 WR Anquan Boldin6.12 WR Isaac Bruce7.01 QB Jake Plummer8.12 WR Charles Rogers9.01 RB Mewelde Moore10.12 QB Steve McNair11.01 TE Jeb Putzier12.12 DEF Tampa Bay13.01 PK David AkersI see nothing wrong with a team along these lines (you could even take other backup or part-time RB along the way as well. And I don't see this team "losing out" much by taking Priest and LJ.

I really like that team. And you could add Blaylock late to protect Martin if desired.

 

[larz]

For those who love Priest, would you take him #1 overall?  over LT2?

if he can really get you 100 pts over the next RB, why not roll the dice and take him #1?  why or why not?

or is LT2 just that safe of a pick that you have to take him #1?

I wouldn't hesitate to take Priest at 1.01 and LJ at 4.12

2 of your first 4 picks on 1 spot? That's insane.. Amazing the thinking.

Here is a team you could theoretically get using current ADP info:1.01 RB Priest Holmes

2.12 WR Chad Johnson

3.01 RB Curtis Martin

4.12 RB Larry Johnson

5.01 WR Anquan Boldin

6.12 WR Isaac Bruce

7.01 QB Jake Plummer

8.12 WR Charles Rogers

9.01 RB Mewelde Moore

10.12 QB Steve McNair

11.01 TE Jeb Putzier

12.12 DEF Tampa Bay

13.01 PK David Akers

I see nothing wrong with a team along these lines (you could even take other backup or part-time RB along the way as well. And I don't see this team "losing out" much by taking Priest and LJ.

That team looks very good IMO, have to figure something out at RB for week 5, but overall it looks really good.

 

[glock]

All the uncertainty and differing opinions expressed here regarding Holmes and LJ take a quantum leap when put into the auction league frame of reference.

Wether or not to draft Holmes @ 1.1 or 1.2 and follow with LJ in the 4th or 5th round is obviously a matter of drafting preference. Odds are once you secure Holmes you'll be able to pick up LJ.

When Holmes is called up for bid early in our auction draft- and he will be! -there is the likelyhood that any number of the remaining owners will be lying in wait for LJ's name to be called up...either to keep or to use as trade bait later.

In a 10 team, $200 auction cap performance scoring league: QB,2RB,2WR,TE,K,D, now it's a matter of who wants to battle you for LJ and for how much.

It's about percentage of cap to spend on the handcuff. Anyones thoughts on that?

 

[Tackling Dummies]

It's about percentage of cap to spend on the handcuff. Anyones thoughts on that?

As you are well aware, there are too many variables in your auction to really get a definite $ to put on rostering LJ. Depending on your current salary and other team's need's at that time when Johnson is nominated will dictate Johnson's final bid. Seeing that the Holmes owner has a vested interest in Johnson, I would nominate Johnson ASAP to drain money from the Holmes owner and to clear out a RB from the pool.

To answer the question, $4-8 for LJ.

 

[Muahahaha]

All the uncertainty and differing opinions expressed here regarding Holmes and LJ take a quantum leap when put into the auction league frame of reference.

Wether or not to draft Holmes @ 1.1 or 1.2 and follow with LJ in the 4th or 5th round is obviously a matter of drafting preference. Odds are once you secure Holmes you'll be able to pick up LJ.

When Holmes is called up for bid early in our auction draft- and he will be! -there is the likelyhood that any number of the remaining owners will be lying in wait for LJ's name to be called up...either to keep or to use as trade bait later.

In a 10 team, $200 auction cap performance scoring league: QB,2RB,2WR,TE,K,D, now it's a matter of who wants to battle you for LJ and for how much.

It's about percentage of cap to spend on the handcuff. Anyones thoughts on that?

Hm. Have to think about that one. What would be interesting, tho, is if LJ came up first. If you got LJ, could you then scare off everyone from Holmes and end up getting the package cheaper?

 

[glock]

All the uncertainty and differing opinions expressed here regarding Holmes and LJ take a quantum leap when put into the auction league frame of reference.

Wether or not to draft Holmes @ 1.1 or 1.2 and follow with LJ in the 4th or 5th round is obviously a matter of drafting preference. Odds are once you secure Holmes you'll be able to pick up LJ.

When Holmes is called up for bid early in our auction draft- and he will be!  -there is the likelyhood that any number of the remaining owners will be lying in wait for LJ's name to be called up...either to keep or to use as trade bait later.

In a 10 team, $200 auction cap performance scoring league: QB,2RB,2WR,TE,K,D, now it's a matter of who wants to battle you for LJ and for how much.

It's about percentage of cap to spend on the handcuff. Anyones thoughts on that?

Hm. Have to think about that one. What would be interesting, tho, is if LJ came up first. If you got LJ, could you then scare off everyone from Holmes and end up getting the package cheaper?

That's a thought. In a 10 owner league calling up players in order, one would have to probably be in the first 3 or so to pull that off.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Has any other player spotlight gone 3 pages...probably 4 b4 we are done? This has to be the #1 question in FF this off season.

 

[BigRed]

Course a good page or so of that was 2 people jabbering back and forth at each other This is easy folks - Priest will tear it up "WHEN HEALTHY" - ie the old FT argument (and no I am not saying Priest = FT for all the yahoos who will make that connection). It's all about whether you think he'll stay healthy all year. There is no definitive answer. Duh. You can easily make a case either way. He's too old and been hurt before on one hand, he doesn't have much mileage and was fine in 03 on the other, blah de blah de blah.Bottom line for me: it's too much risk for a 1st rounder. In fact, I found this out last year when I got him with the 1st pick in our auction (somewhat unexpectedly actually, as the bidding stopped a little quicker than it should've) and after that great start, he destroyed my playoff chances when he got hurt...after all those people making the same arguments about why the injury risk was overblown in August. In fact I tried to trade him for SA/etc but couldn't.Tearing it up early is meaningless in H2H if your stud goes out like that, unless somehow the rest of your team is so great that you're near-undefeated before that (rare).I want a top pick who doesn't even have a moderate chance of not playing all 16 or REAL close to it. Priest is a great RB and class act, but no thx.