Player Spotlight: Randy Moss (2 Viewers)

[Chase Stuart]

Chase your assuming a lot of things that I have not seen basis for.

You called Moss an average WR for one. If your going to use similarity scores as a basis at least recognise that Moss is not an average WR. He is a standard that other WR have been compared to as an aspiration for thier success.

Your also saying that WR at age 30 are inferior to WR age 26-28? I do not think that is a fact at all. Not sure what you are sampling to come to this conclusion.

Moss is the best WR if he wants to be. He seems to want to be now with Brady and the Pats. Brady is an excellent QB. This is a sick combination. I am still pinching myself as I thought this was too good to be true.

Staying away from projections here.. Moss could still beat Jerry Rice's single season record yet.

I never called Moss an average WR. FTR, here's what I did (I didn't want to get too -y in the previous post).

I looked at the 25 WRs (Moss/Holt excluded) that hit 8500 yards in their first 10 years in the league. The 25th WR was Tim Brown, the 1st WR was Jerry Rice, so that should give you some idea for the ability level of the sample. Of those 25 WRs, how was their production broken down by season in the league? In their 10th year, players were noticeably worse than at their prime (which was year 7). I really don't think this is shocking news to anyone.

(I know Doug cringes when I link to an old article of his, but here's another source. At age 30, there was a noticeable dropoff there as well.)

I think the notion of Moss breaking Jerry Rice's single season record borders on ludicrous. But that's just my personal opinion. The stuff about elite receivers failing in older years is not.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Boy its hard to project what this guy can do based upon on-the-field performance since everyone knows he hasn't given a full effort in some time. There's a certain personality type where the person believes they are the best at what they do and will only give maximum effort if they think they are on a winning team. I've dealt with people like that and I know the type well. I believe Randy Moss is one of the types of people. He is going to definitely be on a winner with the Patriots. I believe he showed he still has the speed. While I am skeptical of his ability to stay motivated for multiple seasons, I believe he will have a strong season.88 - 1320 - 13

What do you think the mid-20s year old Moss would have done on the 2007 Patriots?

Somewhere in the neighborhood of a career year.

Ok. I think that's fair then. A career year for Moss, discounted by 10-15% for being older, combined with being slightly optimistic about Moss' motivation/health, would plant you at the numbers you've provided.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chase your assuming a lot of things that I have not seen basis for.You called Moss an average WR for one. If your going to use similarity scores as a basis at least recognise that Moss is not an average WR. He is a standard that other WR have been compared to as an aspiration for thier success.Your also saying that WR at age 30 are inferior to WR age 26-28? I do not think that is a fact at all. Not sure what you are sampling to come to this conclusion.Moss is the best WR if he wants to be. He seems to want to be now with Brady and the Pats. Brady is an excellent QB. This is a sick combination. I am still pinching myself as I thought this was too good to be true.Staying away from projections here.. Moss could still beat Jerry Rice's single season record yet.

I can agree. Brady didn't seem to have a problem finding David Freaking Terrell in college early and often, and I don't see why he won't find Moss at every opportunity he gets. When Brady is throwing, this is how he chooses his target, 1) How open the guy is, and 2) How much he trusts the guys hands. I've seen Brady NOT throw to a guy and give the play another second to develop just to throw to the guy who is on fire at the moment, and he will give Randy time to make a play. Plenty of WRs play well into their 30s and do great, and I see no reason for Moss to not succeed.

David Terrell was an excellent receiver.

 

[Christo]

Staying away from projections here.. Moss could still beat Jerry Rice's single season record yet.

While anything is possible, I just can't see this happening.Moss is already 30 and is:873 recptions behind Rice12195 receiving yards behind Rice96 receiving TDs behind MossSo basically, if Moss played through age 40 he would have to average 87.3, 1219.5, and 9.6 to tie.

He said single season.I doubt 122-1848-15 is within reach (remember though, that was in Rice's 11th season). But wouldn't it be fun to watch?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Let's say you asked a few years ago what would you expect Moss to do at age 30. It's not exactly an easy question to answer, but I think we can make a rough guess.An age 30 Moss should be inferior to a Moss in his prime. Most receivers slow down by 30, and simply aren't as good. His third best year was for 1413 yards. A receiver in his 10th year should put up about 87% of that (based on some numbers I just ran). That puts him at 1,232 yards...assuming he's still in Minnesota, with that sort of supporting cast and QB play, and typical decline for your average receiver.Assuming you think the NE situation is worse for fantasy receivers than the Min situation -- an interesting question, I think -- there's little reason to project anything north of 1200 yards. Because there's lots of evidence that Moss is declining at a steeper rate than your average elite wide receiver.So let's open this up for questions. Let's say a mid-20s year old Moss was put on the 2007 New England roster. What do you think his numbers would be? Better or worse than the typical Moss years from 1998-2003?

I don't have a comment or an answer, but I do have another question. Terrell Owens was also 30 when he moved on to PHI. While there are not a ton of perfect fits, Andre Rison was 30 when he moved to KC and had a bit of a resurgence and Andre Milller went to DEN and had a career year. Ownes is probably the best comparison to Moss, and he seemed to do well for the Eagles (other issues not withstanding).

There's no question there. There will be some ups and downs. But I think it's pretty safe to say that 30 year old WRs are worse than mid-20s WRs, ceteris paribus.

My inferred question was how is the Moss to NE scenario any different than Owens to PHI? The situations are similar, as the following would fit both situations:- "They spread the ball around"- "They did so well running the ball last year"- "They don't throw as much as the Vikings did"- "He's never had a QB like Brady/McNabb"- "His opportunities will be limited by a Top 3 defense"Now I don't expect the Patriots to abandon the run like the Eagles did and (and have done since), but the situations are some what similar. The Pats at this point have better receiving options than the Eagles did behind Owens, but the framework was pretty similar to NE's IMO.

You bring up some good points. I was staunchly on the side of thinking Owens was way overvalued. I was way off on that one.One thing that helped Owens quite a bit was staying in the WCO. Moss does not have that luxury. We've also seen Owens dominate in Dallas. So Owens seems to do well wherever he goes. The same cannot yet be said for Moss.

 

[David Yudkin]

Did you know Marvin Harrison will be 28 this season and Randy Moss only 23? Something to think about for you dynasty league types.

I chuckled at that line in Doug's article considering that in the last 3 seasons:Harrison: 263-3625-13.78-39 (#1 fantasy WR in that time with 596.50 FP)Moss: 151-2325-15.40-24 (#24 fantasy WR in that time with 377.35 FP)

 

[Christo]

Let's say you asked a few years ago what would you expect Moss to do at age 30. It's not exactly an easy question to answer, but I think we can make a rough guess.An age 30 Moss should be inferior to a Moss in his prime. Most receivers slow down by 30, and simply aren't as good. His third best year was for 1413 yards. A receiver in his 10th year should put up about 87% of that (based on some numbers I just ran). That puts him at 1,232 yards...assuming he's still in Minnesota, with that sort of supporting cast and QB play, and typical decline for your average receiver.Assuming you think the NE situation is worse for fantasy receivers than the Min situation -- an interesting question, I think -- there's little reason to project anything north of 1200 yards. Because there's lots of evidence that Moss is declining at a steeper rate than your average elite wide receiver.So let's open this up for questions. Let's say a mid-20s year old Moss was put on the 2007 New England roster. What do you think his numbers would be? Better or worse than the typical Moss years from 1998-2003?

I don't have a comment or an answer, but I do have another question. Terrell Owens was also 30 when he moved on to PHI. While there are not a ton of perfect fits, Andre Rison was 30 when he moved to KC and had a bit of a resurgence and Andre Milller went to DEN and had a career year. Ownes is probably the best comparison to Moss, and he seemed to do well for the Eagles (other issues not withstanding).

There's no question there. There will be some ups and downs. But I think it's pretty safe to say that 30 year old WRs are worse than mid-20s WRs, ceteris paribus.

My inferred question was how is the Moss to NE scenario any different than Owens to PHI? The situations are similar, as the following would fit both situations:- "They spread the ball around"- "They did so well running the ball last year"- "They don't throw as much as the Vikings did"- "He's never had a QB like Brady/McNabb"- "His opportunities will be limited by a Top 3 defense"Now I don't expect the Patriots to abandon the run like the Eagles did and (and have done since), but the situations are some what similar. The Pats at this point have better receiving options than the Eagles did behind Owens, but the framework was pretty similar to NE's IMO.

You bring up some good points. I was staunchly on the side of thinking Owens was way overvalued. I was way off on that one.One thing that helped Owens quite a bit was staying in the WCO. Moss does not have that luxury. We've also seen Owens dominate in Dallas. So Owens seems to do well wherever he goes. The same cannot yet be said for Moss.

Can you imagine what would have happened if TO had spent the last three years in Oakland? It would have been a bloodbath.

 

[KING]

Let's say you asked a few years ago what would you expect Moss to do at age 30. It's not exactly an easy question to answer, but I think we can make a rough guess.

An age 30 Moss should be inferior to a Moss in his prime. Most receivers slow down by 30, and simply aren't as good. His third best year was for 1413 yards. A receiver in his 10th year should put up about 87% of that (based on some numbers I just ran). That puts him at 1,232 yards...assuming he's still in Minnesota, with that sort of supporting cast and QB play, and typical decline for your average receiver.

Assuming you think the NE situation is worse for fantasy receivers than the Min situation -- an interesting question, I think -- there's little reason to project anything north of 1200 yards. Because there's lots of evidence that Moss is declining at a steeper rate than your average elite wide receiver.

So let's open this up for questions. Let's say a mid-20s year old Moss was put on the 2007 New England roster. What do you think his numbers would be? Better or worse than the typical Moss years from 1998-2003?

I don't have a comment or an answer, but I do have another question. Terrell Owens was also 30 when he moved on to PHI. While there are not a ton of perfect fits, Andre Rison was 30 when he moved to KC and had a bit of a resurgence and Andre Milller went to DEN and had a career year. Ownes is probably the best comparison to Moss, and he seemed to do well for the Eagles (other issues not withstanding).

andre miller? the point guard drafted by the cavs?

anyway. i see moss having a resurgence, but not 1200+ yards. we're still talking about moss. no work ethic, bad attitude, and over 30 are not a good combination.

67 930 13.9 8

 

[Chase Stuart]

As for Chase's desire for passionate debate, I think the Pats defense far and away trumps the The Moss Years™ Minnesota defense. I don't see the Pats getting into 42-39 shootouts or allowing 440 points on a season. That alone would diminish Moss' production wether he was 25, 30, or 35.

Yes, I think that's hard to overlook. Wide receivers saw a lot more targets in Minnesota than New England, because the Vikings D forced them to pass more, and New England uses a good chunk of their passes by throwing to the RBs and TEs.If you planted Randy Moss of old, I think his 87.5--1396--12.8 looks something like 80--1280--13.5. That's the average Randy Moss from his very best years, scaled down a bit on receptions, with a slight uptick in TDs.

 

[David Yudkin]

Also, lost in this discussion is how wretched the Raiders were in terms of talent, QB play, OL pass protection, and coaching/play calling. I'm not defending Moss for his time in OAK, but you could have put any other WR in that environment and he would have seen his numbers take a dive as well (maybe not as low as Moss' last year but lower nonetheless). Jerry Rice in his prime would not have put up Jerry Rice-like numbers, no way, no how.

 

[Biabreakable]

Chase your saying that WR on average decline after age 30. That in itself is calling Moss average.

You are calling DD's study of fact when I know he himself would not call it so. Also there is a percentage of players beyond 30 who do improve. Looking at all WR at that age what do you expect the numbers to tell you? Does that mean Moss is the same as every other WR? Not at all.

I have to be up early or I would take the time here to debate these things with you. Perhaps another time.

Yeah I think Moss doing better this season than Jerry Rice's record season is pretty offbase. About as offbase as some of the other things I am hearing here.

That wont happen until 2008.

In linked article DD goes on to suggest based off of these numbers that Harrison is more likely to decline than Randy Moss because of thier respective ages at that time. Marvin was 28 then.. so this article is 7 years old.

That has proven to not be the case here either has it?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Also, lost in this discussion is how wretched the Raiders were in terms of talent, QB play, OL pass protection, and coaching/play calling. I'm not defending Moss for his time in OAK, but you could have put any other WR in that environment and he would have seen his numbers take a dive as well (maybe not as low as Moss' last year but lower nonetheless). Jerry Rice in his prime would not have put up Jerry Rice-like numbers, no way, no how.

The 2005 Oakland Raiders ranked in the top 10 in passing yards. Jerry Porter and Doug Gabriel matched their production from the year before.It's the 2006 Raiders that was terrible. Even still, Ronald Curry had 727 receiving yards. Which was 174 more than Moss.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chase your saying that WR on average decline after age 30. That in itself is calling Moss average.

How do you think Moss will do when he's 40? Do you think he'll do worse than when he was 25? If so, why? Is it because you've seen that all other WRs do worse at age 40 than age 25? Does that mean you're calling Moss average?If you do not think Moss will put up 1200 yards at age 40, why not?

 

[David Yudkin]

Also, lost in this discussion is how wretched the Raiders were in terms of talent, QB play, OL pass protection, and coaching/play calling. I'm not defending Moss for his time in OAK, but you could have put any other WR in that environment and he would have seen his numbers take a dive as well (maybe not as low as Moss' last year but lower nonetheless). Jerry Rice in his prime would not have put up Jerry Rice-like numbers, no way, no how.

The 2005 Oakland Raiders ranked in the top 10 in passing yards. Jerry Porter and Doug Gabriel matched their production from the year before.It's the 2006 Raiders that was terrible. Even still, Ronald Curry had 727 receiving yards. Which was 174 more than Moss.

But part of the recipe in the pot you are stirring is based on how poorly Moss did last year in conjunction with him hitting the 30 year old milestone. OAK was hardly fertile ground for skill players last year and I still think you could put any other WR there in his prime and he would not have come close to the year he would have had on the team he really was on.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Also, lost in this discussion is how wretched the Raiders were in terms of talent, QB play, OL pass protection, and coaching/play calling. I'm not defending Moss for his time in OAK, but you could have put any other WR in that environment and he would have seen his numbers take a dive as well (maybe not as low as Moss' last year but lower nonetheless). Jerry Rice in his prime would not have put up Jerry Rice-like numbers, no way, no how.

The 2005 Oakland Raiders ranked in the top 10 in passing yards. Jerry Porter and Doug Gabriel matched their production from the year before.It's the 2006 Raiders that was terrible. Even still, Ronald Curry had 727 receiving yards. Which was 174 more than Moss.

But part of the recipe in the pot you are stirring is based on how poorly Moss did last year in conjunction with him hitting the 30 year old milestone. OAK was hardly fertile ground for skill players last year and I still think you could put any other WR there in his prime and he would not have come close to the year he would have had on the team he really was on.

I don't disagree about the 2006 Raiders. I take issue with your comment about the pot I'm stirring, though. For one, I haven't provided projections in the thread yet (have I?), and two, I haven't said whether I'm bull or bear on Moss' health/motivation. I'm simply looking at a 30 year old WR. (I did look at his awful production in 2005 in the beginning of this thread, but have since abandoned that approach.)Why do you think Ronald Curry had more receiving yards than Moss? I think we can all agree that a 29 year old Jerry Rice in his prime would have outproduced Ronald Curry.

 

[Biabreakable]

Chase your saying that WR on average decline after age 30. That in itself is calling Moss average.

How do you think Moss will do when he's 40? Do you think he'll do worse than when he was 25? If so, why? Is it because you've seen that all other WRs do worse at age 40 than age 25? Does that mean you're calling Moss average?If you do not think Moss will put up 1200 yards at age 40, why not?

Forest and trees Chase.This is a spotlight thread. We are talking about specifics here not what happens generaly most of the time.

Elite WR continue to be very productive into thier mid 30s. It is hard to improve when your allready at the top. Think about that effect on the study. Does not apply to this situation imho.

Rice was not quite as good in his last years with the 49ers or when he was 40. But Moss is not 40. That bait is pointless. Moss is 30.

ETA - going to bed now. Will pick up later if its interesting.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chase your saying that WR on average decline after age 30. That in itself is calling Moss average.

How do you think Moss will do when he's 40? Do you think he'll do worse than when he was 25? If so, why? Is it because you've seen that all other WRs do worse at age 40 than age 25? Does that mean you're calling Moss average?If you do not think Moss will put up 1200 yards at age 40, why not?

Forest and trees Chase.This is a spotlight thread. We are talking about specifics here not what happens generaly most of the time.

Elite WR continue to be very productive into thier mid 30s. It is hard to improve when your allready at the top. Think about that effect on the study. Does not apply to this situation imho.

Rice was not quite as good in his last years with the 49ers or when he was 40. But Moss is not 40. That bait is pointless. Moss is 30.

ETA - going to bed now. Will pick up later if its interesting.

There is no bait. I'm trying to understand your position with respect to how age affects wide receivers in general, or Randy Moss in particular. I don't understand it yet. If you don't feel like explaining it, that's cool.

Here's my rough guess, with each year's production shown as a percentage of their best season:

22: 0.45

23: 0.73

24: 0.77

25: 0.90

26: 0.94

27: 0.97

28: 1.00

29: 0.90

30: 0.82

31: 0.80

32: 0.75

33: 0.70

34: 0.65

35: 0.55

36: 0.45

37: 0.30

38: 0.15

39: 0.00

Are you implying it's more like 1.00 from age 26-35, then 0.500 from 35 to 39, and then 0.00 from 40 on? I don't really know what you think it is, outside of you mentioned a drop-off at some point.

 

[David Yudkin]

Also, lost in this discussion is how wretched the Raiders were in terms of talent, QB play, OL pass protection, and coaching/play calling. I'm not defending Moss for his time in OAK, but you could have put any other WR in that environment and he would have seen his numbers take a dive as well (maybe not as low as Moss' last year but lower nonetheless). Jerry Rice in his prime would not have put up Jerry Rice-like numbers, no way, no how.

The 2005 Oakland Raiders ranked in the top 10 in passing yards. Jerry Porter and Doug Gabriel matched their production from the year before.It's the 2006 Raiders that was terrible. Even still, Ronald Curry had 727 receiving yards. Which was 174 more than Moss.

But part of the recipe in the pot you are stirring is based on how poorly Moss did last year in conjunction with him hitting the 30 year old milestone. OAK was hardly fertile ground for skill players last year and I still think you could put any other WR there in his prime and he would not have come close to the year he would have had on the team he really was on.

I don't disagree about the 2006 Raiders. I take issue with your comment about the pot I'm stirring, though. For one, I haven't provided projections in the thread yet (have I?), and two, I haven't said whether I'm bull or bear on Moss' health/motivation. I'm simply looking at a 30 year old WR. (I did look at his awful production in 2005 in the beginning of this thread, but have since abandoned that approach.)Why do you think Ronald Curry had more receiving yards than Moss? I think we can all agree that a 29 year old Jerry Rice in his prime would have outproduced Ronald Curry.

Early on you had mentioned . . .

Because there's lots of evidence that Moss is declining at a steeper rate than your average elite wide receiver.

If Moss played on another team last year (even accounting for injuries and poor motivation), IMO we would not be having the discussion about how he fell like a brick last year and whether he's declining more than other elite WRs. Certainly Jerry Rice should have been able to do better than Ronald Curry, but Rice circa 1989-96 replanted to OAK 2006 would not have had 100-1500-15.Similarly, if we got in the time machine and put Ronald Curry on the 89-96 49ers, Curry would have fared much better than he did in 2006 in OAK.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Also, lost in this discussion is how wretched the Raiders were in terms of talent, QB play, OL pass protection, and coaching/play calling. I'm not defending Moss for his time in OAK, but you could have put any other WR in that environment and he would have seen his numbers take a dive as well (maybe not as low as Moss' last year but lower nonetheless). Jerry Rice in his prime would not have put up Jerry Rice-like numbers, no way, no how.

The 2005 Oakland Raiders ranked in the top 10 in passing yards. Jerry Porter and Doug Gabriel matched their production from the year before.It's the 2006 Raiders that was terrible. Even still, Ronald Curry had 727 receiving yards. Which was 174 more than Moss.

But part of the recipe in the pot you are stirring is based on how poorly Moss did last year in conjunction with him hitting the 30 year old milestone. OAK was hardly fertile ground for skill players last year and I still think you could put any other WR there in his prime and he would not have come close to the year he would have had on the team he really was on.

I don't disagree about the 2006 Raiders. I take issue with your comment about the pot I'm stirring, though. For one, I haven't provided projections in the thread yet (have I?), and two, I haven't said whether I'm bull or bear on Moss' health/motivation. I'm simply looking at a 30 year old WR. (I did look at his awful production in 2005 in the beginning of this thread, but have since abandoned that approach.)Why do you think Ronald Curry had more receiving yards than Moss? I think we can all agree that a 29 year old Jerry Rice in his prime would have outproduced Ronald Curry.

Early on you had mentioned . . .

Because there's lots of evidence that Moss is declining at a steeper rate than your average elite wide receiver.

If Moss played on another team last year (even accounting for injuries and poor motivation), IMO we would not be having the discussion about how he fell like a brick last year and whether he's declining more than other elite WRs. Certainly Jerry Rice should have been able to do better than Ronald Curry, but Rice circa 1989-96 replanted to OAK 2006 would not have had 100-1500-15.Similarly, if we got in the time machine and put Ronald Curry on the 89-96 49ers, Curry would have fared much better than he did in 2006 in OAK.

My comment about Moss was directed at his five games missed due to injury in 2004, his injury problems in 2005 (even though he played through them) and his injury problems last year. I can see what caused the confusion, though.

 

[Delusions Of Adequacy]

The reason that Moss is now a Patriot is because Tom Brady wanted him there, championed Moss, and made it happen. He's never had a receiver of Moss' caliber to throw to before (thats why he spread the ball around). Not sure exactly what kind of numbers this translates to, but Brady wanted him there and will be looking for him early and often.

link?

 

[Biabreakable]

Chase your saying that WR on average decline after age 30. That in itself is calling Moss average.

How do you think Moss will do when he's 40? Do you think he'll do worse than when he was 25? If so, why? Is it because you've seen that all other WRs do worse at age 40 than age 25? Does that mean you're calling Moss average?If you do not think Moss will put up 1200 yards at age 40, why not?

Forest and trees Chase.This is a spotlight thread. We are talking about specifics here not what happens generaly most of the time.

Elite WR continue to be very productive into thier mid 30s. It is hard to improve when your allready at the top. Think about that effect on the study. Does not apply to this situation imho.

Rice was not quite as good in his last years with the 49ers or when he was 40. But Moss is not 40. That bait is pointless. Moss is 30.

ETA - going to bed now. Will pick up later if its interesting.

There is no bait. I'm trying to understand your position with respect to how age affects wide receivers in general, or Randy Moss in particular. I don't understand it yet. If you don't feel like explaining it, that's cool.

Here's my rough guess, with each year's production shown as a percentage of their best season:

22: 0.45

23: 0.73

24: 0.77

25: 0.90

26: 0.94

27: 0.97

28: 1.00

29: 0.90

30: 0.82

31: 0.80

32: 0.75

33: 0.70

34: 0.65

35: 0.55

36: 0.45

37: 0.30

38: 0.15

39: 0.00

Are you implying it's more like 1.00 from age 26-35, then 0.500 from 35 to 39, and then 0.00 from 40 on? I don't really know what you think it is, outside of you mentioned a drop-off at some point.

I have not run the numbers on WR based on age or based on the year of thier career yet to have any conclusive evidence. You said you did one based on WR who had 8k yards or more in thier 1st 7 years or somthing earlier. More detailed evidence from that study would be interesting. However I am sure there are some players that would be left out of that that should be considered for comparison. Galloway is one who comes to mind recently and I am sure there are many others.The age of 29-31 as one decline from peak seasons you describe here probobly is fairly common. However I am sure there are several exceptions to this also. In addition I think it is important to keep in mind that a player who has a very high peak such as when Marvin had his 143 catch season is of course going to see a decline in performance. A season when all stars cross is very unique. It just so happens that Marvin was 30 years old when he had his best season. But I don't think his age had anything to do with it. He has performed at a very high level in the 4 years since then and improved on his numbers from age 33 to 34. So is age really the reason here?

In the case of elite WR I do not think age has as much influence on thier performance as the situation and circumstances around them. They play at a high level longer than RBs do. Age 30 is a more applicable guideline for RB than it is for WR. Maybe I am wrong on that but I don't think so based off of the many examples of WR who have had good to great seasons past the age of 30.

Moss is an elite WR in terms of his talent. Some think he has lost this edge that made him so good prior to going to the Raiders. If he has then that makes this point moot, but if he hasn't then I think you have to look at his potential based on what other elite WR have been able to do at age 30 and beyond. As Anarcy pointed out probobly the most similar comparison to Moss's current situation is TO in his 1st year with Philly and McNabb. If you do not have the ego problems TO probobly would have continued to put up great numbers for several seasons in that situation and that is what we are looking at for Moss right now.

 

[Byron_nyc]

After a year of of personal unhappiness that limited his production, Randy gets the perfect situation for him to get back to elite status: a big-armed quarterback and a franchise that brings out the best in the game's bad boys. Al Davis will have Kerry Collins air it out every other play, and you know Randy will look great in Silver and Black. Expect top-five numbers with an upside of #1 for Randy in 2005.

2007: 58 receptions, 800 yards, 8 TDs, tops.

 

[3nOut]

Chase your saying that WR on average decline after age 30. That in itself is calling Moss average.

How do you think Moss will do when he's 40? Do you think he'll do worse than when he was 25? If so, why? Is it because you've seen that all other WRs do worse at age 40 than age 25? Does that mean you're calling Moss average?If you do not think Moss will put up 1200 yards at age 40, why not?

OK, so he's 30, so what? Its not like he's played any for the past two years. His body is 28... :(

 

[3nOut]

The reason that Moss is now a Patriot is because Tom Brady wanted him there, championed Moss, and made it happen. He's never had a receiver of Moss' caliber to throw to before (thats why he spread the ball around). Not sure exactly what kind of numbers this translates to, but Brady wanted him there and will be looking for him early and often.

link?

I read the info on my cell phone so I don't have a link, but it is well known that Brady restructured his contract to make this work...Brady Restructured Contract

 

[BigSteelThrill]

The reason that Moss is now a Patriot is because Tom Brady wanted him there, championed Moss, and made it happen. He's never had a receiver of Moss' caliber to throw to before (thats why he spread the ball around). Not sure exactly what kind of numbers this translates to, but Brady wanted him there and will be looking for him early and often.

link?

I read the info on my cell phone so I don't have a link, but it is well known that Brady restructured his contract to make this work...Brady Restructured Contract

Thats not the same thing.

 

[Christo]

The reason that Moss is now a Patriot is because Tom Brady wanted him there, championed Moss, and made it happen. He's never had a receiver of Moss' caliber to throw to before (thats why he spread the ball around). Not sure exactly what kind of numbers this translates to, but Brady wanted him there and will be looking for him early and often.

link?

I read the info on my cell phone so I don't have a link, but it is well known that Brady restructured his contract to make this work...Brady Restructured Contract

Thats not the same thing.

While it may not meet the criteria for championing Moss, it sure meets the criteria for wanting him there and making it happen.

 

[Idiot_2]

FWIW- The Patriots "System" of WR usage may be completely thrown out the window for all we know this year. While it would seem like they have been using Charlie Weiss's (sp?) moldable blueprint for the last couple years, I believe that Josh McDaniels has been handed the wheel while Belichick occasionally stomps on the student driver brakes. Belichick is a firm believer in the fact that: "what you are, you are" I would not be at all surprised to find the Patriots offense in regards to the WR's morph into a vertical passing game (a la Coryell) or a "Ground Chuck" (in reference to Chuck Knox of SEA fame), the options are very great and the variences are far between.

It is this reasoning that hastens me to put up projections or postulations prior to preseason play cause football ain't like planting perennials. But if you were to ask me to spend a 4th round pick in a redraft on Moss RIGHT NOW, I would probably hope that he may be available in 6th right after some idiot drafts a kicker.

Any thoughts, nudge nudge Chase/David...?

 

[massraider]

Will there be a player more hyped this summer? A team more hyped this summer?

This offseason has already ensured that Randy Moss will be: A guy I'd like to have, but not where he will get drafted. I call this my 'Drew Bennett' rule. There will be too many guys in every league that had Randy 'back in the day', and still have a little special place in their heart for him.

 

[Da Guru]

Will there be a player more hyped this summer? A team more hyped this summer?This offseason has already ensured that Randy Moss will be: A guy I'd like to have, but not where he will get drafted. I call this my 'Drew Bennett' rule. There will be too many guys in every league that had Randy 'back in the day', and still have a little special place in their heart for him.

I had him when he had 17 TDs..I keep thinking about that, but Minny could not stop anyone back in the day.

 

[Longrifle]

I have not seen discussed yet, but I have a question. Do you think Moss is equal to or better than D. Branch? IMO Branch was Brady’s last true go to man (evident in the way Brady wanted to keep him around). So who is better R. Moss or D. Branch. There could be some debate over this but I would lean towards R. Moss. So then Moss should see at least as many targets as Branch did when he was with the Pats and may be able to do a bit more with them.

In 2005 Branch caught 78 passes for 998 yrds and 5 TD’s (20% of Brady’s TD thrown). So if we assume that Moss today is better that Branch was then, his numbers should also be better. So here is my conservative estimate of Moss

Receptions 80 (if you look at Moss' history he has only put up large reciving numbers 2 yrs)

Receiving Yards 1,160

Receiving TDs 10 (he will be a huge red zone target)

 

[Da Guru]

I have not seen discussed yet, but I have a question. Do you think Moss is equal to or better than D. Branch? IMO Branch was Brady’s last true go to man (evident in the way Brady wanted to keep him around). So who is better R. Moss or D. Branch. There could be some debate over this but I would lean towards R. Moss. So then Moss should see at least as many targets as Branch did when he was with the Pats and may be able to do a bit more with them. In 2005 Branch caught 78 passes for 998 yrds and 5 TD’s (20% of Brady’s TD thrown). So if we assume that Moss today is better that Branch was then, his numbers should also be better. So here is my conservative estimate of MossReceptions 80 (if you look at Moss' history he has only put up large reciving numbers 2 yrs)Receiving Yards 1,160Receiving TDs 10 (he will be a huge red zone target)

I don`t think Branch was a "go to" guy.

 

[LBH]

Its all about motivation for R.Moss, and I think he has a lot in NE with a great QB

Projection: 80rec 1150yds 10tds

 

[Da Guru]

Its all about motivation for R.Moss, and I think he has a lot in NE with a great QB Projection: 80rec 1150yds 10tds

At least 10 TDs if healthy all year.

 

[Biabreakable]

For those of you projecting 80 catches (seems like a popular estimate I have seen at least 3 times in this thread) I just want to point out that Randy Moss has averaged 15.8 YPC even when including his 2 down seasons with the Raiders. His TD to catch ratio is 1TD every 15 catches including seasons with the Raiders. Although his TD to catch ratio has been MUCH higher than this at other times in his career.

 

[jurb26]

For those of you projecting 80 catches (seems like a popular estimate I have seen at least 3 times in this thread) I just want to point out that Randy Moss has averaged 15.8 YPC even when including his 2 down seasons with the Raiders. His TD to catch ratio is 1TD every 15 catches including seasons with the Raiders. Although his TD to catch ratio has been MUCH higher than this at other times in his career.

676 career receptions, 101 career TDs. Seems it's a TD every 6.7 receptions, not 15.

 

[Buttmonkey]

The same old argument that Brady spreads the ball around too much won't work with Randy. Brady has in the past locked in on one receiver and has been very successful doing it. Troy Brown in 2001 and 2002 had 198 receptions. If you think for one minute Randy is coming and they're going to treat him as any other receiver than you all are sorely mistaken. Randy will get at least 80 receptions, 1100 yards and 10 TDs. This is of course if he can stay healthy.

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

Dont be fooled by the hype and scenario. Since 2000, the Patriots have not fielded a 100-catch reciever nor have they fielded any reciever (WR/TE) who has caught more than 7 TD passes. While Im not saying that not possible, its a result of the offense. Bellichick loves his decoys and what better than to demand double coverage on Moss. Then its time for defenses to pick their poison.

We're going to see alot of zone coverage this year from defenses to minimize big-play ability. Hence, I expect Moss' YPC to remain in the mid teens. Regarding receptions, I feel Randy most favored role is going to be to open up the field for others. TD's will also be hard to come by given the variety of other options. But It is Randy Moss, an athletic freak, so Im not putting anything past him

My projections are as follows.

62 receptions

950 yards

YPC of 15.3

7-8 TD's

 

[Patoons]

Dont be fooled by the hype and scenario. Since 2000, the Patriots have not fielded a 100-catch reciever nor have they fielded any reciever (WR/TE) who has caught more than 7 TD passes. While Im not saying that not possible, its a result of the offense. Bellichick loves his decoys and what better than to demand double coverage on Moss. Then its time for defenses to pick their poison. We're going to see alot of zone coverage this year from defenses to minimize big-play ability. Hence, I expect Moss' YPC to remain in the mid teens. Regarding receptions, I feel Randy most favored role is going to be to open up the field for others. TD's will also be hard to come by given the variety of other options. But It is Randy Moss, an athletic freak, so Im not putting anything past him My projections are as follows. 62 receptions950 yardsYPC of 15.37-8 TD's

Since 2000, when have they had a WR of Moss' caliber?

 

[Buttmonkey]

Dont be fooled by the hype and scenario. Since 2000, the Patriots have not fielded a 100-catch reciever nor have they fielded any reciever (WR/TE) who has caught more than 7 TD passes. While Im not saying that not possible, its a result of the offense. Bellichick loves his decoys and what better than to demand double coverage on Moss. Then its time for defenses to pick their poison.

We're going to see alot of zone coverage this year from defenses to minimize big-play ability. Hence, I expect Moss' YPC to remain in the mid teens. Regarding receptions, I feel Randy most favored role is going to be to open up the field for others. TD's will also be hard to come by given the variety of other options. But It is Randy Moss, an athletic freak, so Im not putting anything past him

My projections are as follows.

62 receptions

950 yards

YPC of 15.3

7-8 TD's

Troy Brown had 101 and 97 receptions respectively in 2001 and 2002

 

[redman]

This is a very tough projection.

On the one hand, the Pats have never had a WR who had the stature and abilities of Moss. They have shown that they will use weapons that they have if they create mismatches.

OTOH, they've also never had a WR2 with the kind fo speed and deep play ability as Stallworth. This team loves mismatches, so I'm thinking they're looking with as much relish at what Stallworth can do against CB2's as they are at what Moss can do against CB1's. It doesn't hurt that they have another blazer in Welker in the slot.

As between the two, I think Stallworth has more "surprising" numbers than Moss. I'm already on record as saying that I believe New England's offense starts slowly this year.

Randy Moss: 65/1000/9

Stallworth: 60/1050/8

 

[Biabreakable]

For those of you projecting 80 catches (seems like a popular estimate I have seen at least 3 times in this thread) I just want to point out that Randy Moss has averaged 15.8 YPC even when including his 2 down seasons with the Raiders. His TD to catch ratio is 1TD every 15 catches including seasons with the Raiders. Although his TD to catch ratio has been MUCH higher than this at other times in his career.

676 career receptions, 101 career TDs. Seems it's a TD every 6.7 receptions, not 15.

oops yes your right I quickly plugged the numbers in the wrong order as I had to get back to work. That seemed off for some reason when I did it too but I didn't have time to recheck my math.Thanks for clearing that up.

 

[Christo]

Dont be fooled by the hype and scenario. Since 2000, the Patriots have not fielded a 100-catch reciever nor have they fielded any reciever (WR/TE) who has caught more than 7 TD passes. While Im not saying that not possible, its a result of the offense. Bellichick loves his decoys and what better than to demand double coverage on Moss. Then its time for defenses to pick their poison.

We're going to see alot of zone coverage this year from defenses to minimize big-play ability. Hence, I expect Moss' YPC to remain in the mid teens. Regarding receptions, I feel Randy most favored role is going to be to open up the field for others. TD's will also be hard to come by given the variety of other options. But It is Randy Moss, an athletic freak, so Im not putting anything past him

My projections are as follows.

62 receptions

950 yards

YPC of 15.3

7-8 TD's

Troy Brown2001 - 101 receptions

2002 - 97 receptions

NFL.com

 

[radballs]

This is a very tough projection.

On the one hand, the Pats have never had a WR who had the stature and abilities of Moss. They have shown that they will use weapons that they have if they create mismatches.

OTOH, they've also never had a WR2 with the kind fo speed and deep play ability as Stallworth. This team loves mismatches, so I'm thinking they're looking with as much relish at what Stallworth can do against CB2's as they are at what Moss can do against CB1's. It doesn't hurt that they have another blazer in Welker in the slot.

As between the two, I think Stallworth has more "surprising" numbers than Moss. I'm already on record as saying that I believe New England's offense starts slowly this year.

Randy Moss: 65/1000/9

Stallworth: 60/1050/8

Wow, finally a post from someone who knows what they're talking about.

 

[Biabreakable]

This is a very tough projection.

On the one hand, the Pats have never had a WR who had the stature and abilities of Moss. They have shown that they will use weapons that they have if they create mismatches.

OTOH, they've also never had a WR2 with the kind fo speed and deep play ability as Stallworth. This team loves mismatches, so I'm thinking they're looking with as much relish at what Stallworth can do against CB2's as they are at what Moss can do against CB1's. It doesn't hurt that they have another blazer in Welker in the slot.

As between the two, I think Stallworth has more "surprising" numbers than Moss. I'm already on record as saying that I believe New England's offense starts slowly this year.

Randy Moss: 65/1000/9

Stallworth: 60/1050/8

Wow, finally a post from someone who knows what they're talking about.

So what do you think Moss is going to be able to do with Brady since the rest of us in this thread don't even know what we are talking about?

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

Dont be fooled by the hype and scenario. Since 2000, the Patriots have not fielded a 100-catch reciever nor have they fielded any reciever (WR/TE) who has caught more than 7 TD passes. While Im not saying that not possible, its a result of the offense. Bellichick loves his decoys and what better than to demand double coverage on Moss. Then its time for defenses to pick their poison.

We're going to see alot of zone coverage this year from defenses to minimize big-play ability. Hence, I expect Moss' YPC to remain in the mid teens. Regarding receptions, I feel Randy most favored role is going to be to open up the field for others. TD's will also be hard to come by given the variety of other options. But It is Randy Moss, an athletic freak, so Im not putting anything past him

My projections are as follows.

62 receptions

950 yards

YPC of 15.3

7-8 TD's

Troy Brown2001 - 101 receptions

2002 - 97 receptions

NFL.com

Damn. I didnt catch that at all. However, I see these seasons as statistical anomalies and in no way representative of the current New England offense. In 2001, brady took over the helm, and like most rookie QB's locked on to his target of choice often and consistantly. 2002 corresponded with a whopping 601 Pass Attempts! Such a number would be unfathomable given the advances of Maroney in the running game. To put that into perspective, 601 attempts would rank second in the NFL last season behind Green Bay and 5 above Detroit. Furthermore, Detroit had a league low 301 rush attempts.

Hence, those numbers from Troy can simply be thrown out the window. Given the recieving options that Brady has now, added to the fact that he is now entering his 8th season in the offense, and with a steady running game spearheaded by a stud in Maroney, it is virtually impossible for ANY reciever of ANY talent level to command such a huge chunk of receptions.

Take Brady's last statistical season (2006) and take the # of completions (319)

Then take the stats from returning players from last year from returning non-wr's

Ben Watson: 49 receptions

Kevin Faulk: 43 receptions

Lawrence Maroney: 22 receptions

David Thomas: 11 receptions

Situational RB's: 10 receptions

--------------------------------------

135 receptions total (excluding Corey Dillion's 15 and Graham's 21)

Less that from the total # of completions and you have a whopping 184 receptions to split among several recievers. Say for example that all the recievers recieve 1/2 the completions from last year as a result of their diminished role. Some players would be experiencing career lows. All are expected to make the final roster.

Reche Caldwell: 61 receptions/2 = 30.5 receptions

Wes Welker: 67 receptions/2 = 33.5 receptions

Donte' Stallworth: 38 reception/2 = 19 receptions

Jabar Gaffney: 11 receptions/2 = 5.5 receptions

Kyle Brady: 5 receptions/2 = 2.5 receptions

Kelley Washington: 9 receptions/2 = 4.5 receptions

Chad Jackson: 11 receptions/2 = 5.5 receptions

Sammy Morris: 21 receptions/2 = 10.5 receptions

---------------------------------------------------------

111.5 receptions total among returning/incoming players.

Take that away from the 184 alloted to Recievers/Incomers and you have a grand total of 72.5 receptions avaliable to Randy Moss, given the same number of offensive plays and the same number of rushes. Shocking?

Take it even further:

1/3 returning/incoming receptions: 74.33 receptions total; allowing Moss 109.66 catches, providng all things constant.

But one must consider, did the Pats really give Stallworth 3.6 mill to catch 11 balls? Did the Pats really draft Chad Jackson in the first round last year to catch 4 balls? Or better yet, did the Pats really trade off a 2nd and give Welker a 5yr/18mill contract with 9 million guaranteed to catch 22 balls?

Suffice to say, the answer is probably no. Yet its the only way for Moss to catch his 100 ball allotment as many of you deem possible.

You be the Judge here.

 

[David Yudkin]

I often campaigned for people to not only post individual projects but TEAM offensive projections as well to see where they see production going. I think that would shed some light on some of these projections for Moss. As things stand now, the Pats have a ***TON*** of weapons on offense and clearly not all of these guys can have All Pro type numbers. So for those open to the challenge, how do you see the Pats' production on offense distributed for 2007?

 

[Biabreakable]

I often campaigned for people to not only post individual projects but TEAM offensive projections as well to see where they see production going. I think that would shed some light on some of these projections for Moss. As things stand now, the Pats have a ***TON*** of weapons on offense and clearly not all of these guys can have All Pro type numbers. So for those open to the challenge, how do you see the Pats' production on offense distributed for 2007?

I am working on it but that is going to take some time. Maybe this weekend.1st question I am struggling with is how many carries Morris and Faulk are going to get. I expect Maroney as long as he is healthy to get a majority of the carries, but given that he was not able to stay healthy with limited duty last year I have a hard time giving him more than 250 carries. I believe the Pats will still run the ball a lot more than that. How much more is what I am trying to figure out.The aquisitions of Moss, Stallworth and Welker should cause defenses to play back against the Pats a lot I think out of fear of the big play. Which I am sure will be successful many times during the season. This will create favorable situations to run the ball with Maroney and Faulk and I expect them to convert a lot of 1st downs this way.Ultimatly what the run/pass distribution will be is somthing I am not sure about yet. The Pats offense is so diverse it could be a lot of different things. Very balanced like last year or closer to a 60/40 in favor of the pass.Strangely enough I think that ratio will hinge on how much Morris is used in a COP role and I am not sure what the answer on that is yet. Any suggestions or guesses?The Pats offense over the last 3 years has averaged 1013 total plays. In 2004 they ran the ball more than they passed. In 2005 they passed 56% of the time. In 2006 it was almost dead even. So they could do any of these 3 things. Although I tend to think they will pass quite a bit more than they will run this year.I also think the offense will be more potent than in past years and this will lead to more plays than average. Perhaps somthing like 1035 total plays but I have not decided on that yet either.

 

[Chaser1439]

My best estimate is

13 tds, 1250 yards, 92 receptions

 

[lions327]

My best estimate is 13 tds, 1250 yards, 92 receptions

I am not nearly as optimistic as you are. First, the Patriots offense is nothing like the old Viking offense, where Culpepper would just toss it downfield every few plays. Second, the Patriots are a balanced offense and even Moss won't change that. The Patriots are more of a ball control offense too than the offenses Moss is accustomed to. I just don't see Moss putting up the old Moss numbers. The Patriots will be leading or close late in games and thus will stay within their offense. 77 receptions1150 yards 10 TD'sThe above are IF he stays healthy, which is certainly not a given.

 

[sho nuff]

60 receptions...900 yards...9 TDs.

92 receptions? Yeah...cause he has done that so much during his career...and that Pats always have WRs putting up crazy numbers for receptions....lol