Player Spotlight: Randy Moss (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Randy Moss, WR, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Randy Moss Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Blackjacks]

As a Brady-Moss owner I am very excited heading into the season. While I don't see Moss breaking own td record (although I guess he could considering he does have the weakest schedule against the pass this year) I still see Moss as the #1 overall recieving option this year.

16 games

90 catches

1350 yards

16 td's

We'll probably have another two to three years of this combo in their prime to see how it ranks against the best of all time.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Probably won't get 20+TD's but he should still get a bunch of them. Randy Moss receives a ridiculous amount of end zone targets. At the goal line he's pretty much option A,B and sometimes C. Yardage and receptions will likely remain high as well.

We already know that he's the best wide receiver in fantasy and should be once again. The question is do you draft him as opposed to a top running back (supposedly) which will certainly be the case if you want him on your team this season.

After LT, AD, SJAX, Westy, and Addai are gone the next batch of running backs have some question marks. It might be worth it to take a wide receiver who should put up numbers better than most running backs. And you should still be able to get a decent rb not much later anyway. It's definitely something to think about.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Other than the 3 years he spent in oakland, Randy Moss has been a top5 WR every other season of his career, he even finished #1 in 4 different seasons including his rookie year. Talent drips from Randy Moss. You have to put him #1 on your list because he has one of the best ever throwing him the ball, has a ton of talent around him, and NE just plain knows how to utilize him to cripple opposing defenses.

88/1,400/15 TD

 

[Tanner9919]

I think defenses figured out how to contain Moss late last season, and that trend should continue in '08..

Brady won't throw anything NEAR the number of TDs he tossed last season (his career avg is 28/yr), and I think the Pats will go to a more balanced attack using Maroney as a workhorse RB. They have to; their defense has been ransacked by free agency, and they're old... That means the Pats will look to their running game to burn out the clock and win the time of possession battle. When you have Moss and Brady hooking up as often as they did last season, the defense doesn't get enough time off between series.

The Pats also can't afford to drop Brady back as often as they did last season - from weeks 12-17, Brady was sacked 19 times, and was sacked another 8 times in the post season. Opponents have spent the entire off-season finding ways to get after him, and I'm sure they've spend a lot of time focusing on Moss..

Moss

80/1200/13

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I guess it is of some concern that Moss had only 7 catches in 3 playoff games. The Pats showed no concern by resigning him to a big contract. Just prior to that Brady said if Moss left he would too. So clearly everyone realizes Moss' value and most importantly Moss himself seems happy in NE. Just to be safe I'm betting on roughly 10-20% decrease of last seasons record-breaking stats:

84 receptions

1300 yards

18 TD

 

[The Moz]

Noone figured out the Patriots last seaosn - Brady jus got a little scared to throw into double coverage and started Settling for the single covered Welker. Wrong choice.

 

[mozzy84]

103/1540/25

 

[David Yudkin]

I think defenses figured out how to contain Moss late last season, and that trend should continue in '08.

I think this is partly true, but part of the problem was that Moss just plain got tired. NE has already said they plain to give Moss a lot more plays off (as in off the field) this year to keep him fresh for the end of the season. That may or may not mean fewer plays for Moss, as they left him on the field as a decoy on almost every play offensively last year.

Brady won't throw anything NEAR the number of TDs he tossed last season (his career avg is 28/yr).

How many of those years did Brady have Moss and Welker?

I think the Pats will go to a more balanced attack using Maroney as a workhorse RB.

I have seen and heard NOTHING to indicate that this is the plan, and my sources close to the team indicate the same thing. From what I've heard, the plan is to work out better blocking schemes and work on ways to better disguise their routes by lining up players in different places. I've heard nothing about "let's figure out how to get Maroney the ball."

Their defense has been ransacked by free agency, and they're old...

They lost Samuel, I'll grant you that he's a big loss. But the other guys that left weren't even starting defensive backs. They released Colvin because he was too costly and banged up. As for the "too old" perception, they have two guys that are up there: Bruschi and Harrison. That's it. Everyone else is in their prime.

That means the Pats will look to their running game to burn out the clock and win the time of possession battle. When you have Moss and Brady hooking up as often as they did last season, the defense doesn't get enough time off between series.

Than how would you explain how the Pats ranked second in the NFL in time of possession last year, which was over a full minute more than any other year in the BB/Brady era?

The Pats also can't afford to drop Brady back as often as they did last season - from weeks 12-17, Brady was sacked 19 times, and was sacked another 8 times in the post season.

Brady was sacked 11 times from Weeks 12-17 and 6 times in the post season, soo I'm not sure where you got your numbers. As for the regular season, the Pats had two OLmen out late in the year and Watson out as well, thus dramatically weakening the line.

Opponents have spent the entire off-season finding ways to get after him, and I'm sure they've spend a lot of time focusing on Moss.

Funny how the whole league can take time to make adjustments but the Patriots can't change things up on their own or solve any of their issues or concerns. I'm not sure every team can compare to the Giants, and they were the only team that effectively shut down Brady . . . and that was only once in two tries.

Moss

80/1200/13

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing on this projection (I think Moss' numbers take a decent hit), just commenting on the dialogue to get to it.

 

[The Jacket]

I think defenses figured out how to contain Moss late last season, and that trend should continue in '08..

Defenses have never figured Moss out.90 rec., 1500 yards, 19 TD

 

[Scooby1974]

Moss is fast, he's big, he can jump really high, he blocks out DB's very well, and he can catch just about anything thrown near him. How in the world do you "figure that out"? Are DB's going bump him at the line and inject him with something to impair his performance? Is there a secret code that slows him down and takes away ability? Is there a solution outside of double/triple teaming him? Teams tried that...the only thing that seems to work is getting to Brady.

Nobody stops Randy, you can only hope to contain him by not giving him time to outrun you.

Sack Brady = slow Randy down...it's the only option I see, but I don't see many teams with a DLine that the Giants had.

85 rec., 1500, 17 TD's

 

[rzrback77]

Looking back is 20/20, but the difference between the preseason in 07 and the preseason in 08 could not be more different for any player other than Randy Moss. I guess Tom Brady made a leap also, but not like Randy Moss. At Minnesota, he came out of the chute on fire and finished #1, #2, #1, #5, #5, and #1 in hius first six seasons. In those six years, he averaged 87.5 catches for 1396 yds and 12.8 TDs. Simply amazing. Then he had some injury and attitude issues in his last year with the Vikings and fell totally out of favor in Oakland. But, at age 30 last season, he proved a ton of folks wrong that he was washed up by having a career year.

His ADP is WR 1 and 9 overall so if you want him, you have to go get him. If you play in a RB mad league and he is sitting there at the bottom of the first, you better grab him and hold on for a wild ride on the Brady/Moss train in 08.

Randy Moss 150 targets 95 receptions 1473 yards 15.5 ypc and 15 total TDs

 

[mbuehner]

Lest we forget, Moss is a major high risk/high reward player. If the curse of the Superbowl loser rears its head again, even modestly, you could get sulky Moss instead of super-Moss. I dont know that Brady will be willing to force him balls just to make him happy.

We'll see. I just think its dangerous to mark him down for 1500 and 20. He could well hit it, but he could well be cut halfway through the season given his history and the Pats discipline.

That said-

92 rec, 1196y, 14 TD.

 

[BigRed]

Obviously he's going to be one of the top producing WRs this year, but in an auction league, people will tend to overpay for Moss. I've seen 24/5% for him - for a WR? No thx.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

At times, even long stretches in a season, I've never seen a wide receiver make this game look so easy, look so dominant and that includes Jerry Rice.

What I don't understand fully is how he can't perform in the postseason, where someone like Jerry Rice excels. That is a topic for another thread, but what we do know is we have one of the top two NFL QB's in today's game throwing to the greatest receiver in the game. You have a good offensive line and a solid running game, it means a huge season on the horizon.

90 receptions 16 td's and 1550 yards

 

[David Yudkin]

At times, even long stretches in a season, I've never seen a wide receiver make this game look so easy, look so dominant and that includes Jerry Rice.What I don't understand fully is how he can't perform in the postseason, where someone like Jerry Rice excels. That is a topic for another thread, but what we do know is we have one of the top two NFL QB's in today's game throwing to the greatest receiver in the game. You have a good offensive line and a solid running game, it means a huge season on the horizon.90 receptions 16 td's and 1550 yards

Moss has averaged 74.3 yds and 0.91 TD per game in the playoffs. Over the course of a season, that would equate to 1189 and almost 15 TD. I wouldn't call that "not performing in the post season." Granted, he did way better early on in Minnesota, but overall his totals are far from invisible.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Everyone seems to think Randy's numbers will drop. I don't buy it. Randy and Tom have had a year together now to develop a better rapport and Tom is still going to be the engine that drives the Pat's offense - not Maroney.

111 catches, 1650 yards, 24 TDs.

 

[David Yudkin]

Everyone seems to think Randy's numbers will drop. I don't buy it. Randy and Tom have had a year together now to develop a better rapport and Tom is still going to be the engine that drives the Pat's offense - not Maroney.111 catches, 1650 yards, 24 TDs.

I really have nothing to comment . . . just shocked by the projection.

 

[BigRed]

It's a ridiculous projection, but to each their own.

 

[jurb26]

Everyone seems to think Randy's numbers will drop. I don't buy it. Randy and Tom have had a year together now to develop a better rapport and Tom is still going to be the engine that drives the Pat's offense - not Maroney.111 catches, 1650 yards, 24 TDs.

I really have nothing to comment . . . just shocked by the projection.

This projection actually makes a lot more sense than a lot of the Peterson ones IMO.Both are far fetched rays of hope, but this one is still closer to attainable.None the less.... we have the best WR in the NFL and the best QB in the NFL on the same team and now having worked together for a full season. While record breaking seasons are never a wise projection, Moss (and Brady) should continue to see an elite level of success in 2008. Only injuries can slow Moss down. He is happy and motivated and that is probably the single most terrifying thing for any defensive coordinator in the NFL.85 receptions, 1350 yds, 18 TDs

 

[Jon_Moore]

Other than the 3 years he spent in oakland, Randy Moss has been a top5 WR every other season of his career, he even finished #1 in 4 different seasons including his rookie year. Talent drips from Randy Moss. You have to put him #1 on your list because he has one of the best ever throwing him the ball, has a ton of talent around him, and NE just plain knows how to utilize him to cripple opposing defenses. 88/1,400/15 TD

Pretty much everything he said94 Receptions1485 Yards16 TDs

 

[thejag]

A lot of times we simply over-analyze things: Moss is the best WR in the situation in the league. Think about the amount of love Turner got as LT's backup because "he would be in a perfect situation." Well, it doesn't get any better than this for a WR. People are just afraid of predicting high.

94 rec.

1410 yds

21 TDs

 

[cstu]

96/1440/16

He won't match last year's numbers but he's got everything going for him this year, not the least of which is a chip on his shoulder after the SB.

 

[twitch]

Do the Pats really have the "weakest schedule against the pass" this year? Someone, specifically the guy making that claim, needs to do some homework. The Pats in fact dont have easiest slate vs. the pass. Its the 3rd most difficult schedule for QBs. The #1 most difficult schedule for TEs. And the 8th most difficult for WRs. Conversely, they have the 3rd easiest schedule for RBs. Again, I repeat. 3rd most difficult for QBs. 3rd easiest for RBs.

Not that it matters. In fact it doesnt matter one bit because it happened 20 years ago. But following Jerry Rice's 22TD season in 1987, he caught NINE scores the following season. He played every game. Had an incredible yd/rec average. But his catches were somewhat limited. And his TDs in that particular season were well below what Im sure was expected. For whatever reasons. And as we all know, Rice could score TDs with the best of them. But that was Rice. And we're talking about Moss. So again, not that it really matters. Just some food for thought. I know its tough to make comparisons of Moss to anyone. Rice may have been his only 'peer'.

Moss just signed a $27 million contract. Last year, he was playing for relative chump change with a good portion of that riding on incentives. His new contract comes with no such snags. Some vets, not all, manage to get a little complacent after theyve inked monster deals. Not that its going to happen to Moss. Just throwing that out there.

Considering NE has what is being considered the easiest schedule in the league based on opponents' W/L record, you'd think everything would be lining up for massive passing #s yet again. I'll believe it when I see it. Last year was the perfect storm for the Pats O, and specifically Brady and Moss. I dont see complete and utter domination thru the air yet again. I'll give opposing Ds perhaps more credit than they deserve. But I dont expect Moss to come anywhere near his record breaking totals from a year ago. Atleast not in the way of TDs.

80 catches 1280yds 14TDs

Those #s would certainly be rock solid. Just not thru the roof spectacular like Moss put up last year.

 

[David Yudkin]

A lot of people have the perception that the Pats have been some dominant running team in the BB/Brady era, but generally has not been the case. Some folks have suggested that after going 16-0 that the team will go back to being this dominant running team again (which to me you can't go back to what who never were).

Here were the Pats rushing rankings since BB got to town . . .

Yr Att Yds TD YPC

00 18 26 24 28

01 8 13 7 24

02 28 28 26 27

03 12 27 24 30

04 5 7 8 18

05 18 24 11 30

06 6 12 4 18

07 9 13 5 14

 

[twitch]

A lot of people have the perception that the Pats have been some dominant running team in the BB/Brady era, but generally has not been the case. Some folks have suggested that after going 16-0 that the team will go back to being this dominant running team again (which to me you can't go back to what who never were).

Here were the Pats rushing rankings since BB got to town . . .

Yr Att Yds TD YPC

00 18 26 24 28

01 8 13 7 24

02 28 28 26 27

03 12 27 24 30

04 5 7 8 18

05 18 24 11 30

06 6 12 4 18

07 9 13 5 14

Why would not only " alot" of people have that perception? Why would anyone have it? Where are you getting that exactly? Youve really heard people suggest that New England's had a dominant running attack? You know naturally I follow all things New England. I have of course for years and years. Never have I heard their running attack suggested by anyone to be "dominant". Where do you think that perception is coming from exactly, DY? Im very interested in hearing more about this 'perception'. Im obviously poking fun here. I dont really buy that anyone with any knowledge or understanding of this team has suggested theyve been 'dominant' in any way running the ball. Certainly they were very solid for a couple of years while Corey Dillon was leading the attack. But dominant? I dont see how anyone would characterize it that way. You make some interesting points on occasion, DY. I must say.

 

[pollardsvision]

love moss. teams may start to figure he and brady out a litte, but i think the only thing that stops moss is injury. predicting injury is impossible, but that's not going to stop me. i feel a slightly banged up season coming on.

moss plays 13 games at last year's rec/yds pace (6 catches, 15 YPC).

80 catches, 1200 yards, 15 TD's.

aside from injury, i'm just assuming regression because i simply will never bet the farm on predicting exactly what the patriots will do.

moss is great, but i refuse to pay for last season to get him. therefore, there's pretty much no chance i'll be able to get him.

 

[Lash]

Everyone seems to think Randy's numbers will drop. I don't buy it. Randy and Tom have had a year together now to develop a better rapport and Tom is still going to be the engine that drives the Pat's offense - not Maroney.111 catches, 1650 yards, 24 TDs.

I really have nothing to comment . . . just shocked by the projection.

This projection actually makes a lot more sense than a lot of the Peterson ones IMO.Both are far fetched rays of hope, but this one is still closer to attainable.None the less.... we have the best WR in the NFL and the best QB in the NFL on the same team and now having worked together for a full season. While record breaking seasons are never a wise projection, Moss (and Brady) should continue to see an elite level of success in 2008. Only injuries can slow Moss down. He is happy and motivated and that is probably the single most terrifying thing for any defensive coordinator in the NFL.85 receptions, 1350 yds, 18 TDs

i applaud the big projectionit sure beats the heck out all the "stock" projections spewed out that take 10-15% off last years numbers and put those in a magazine, with maybe a few of the 2nd and 3rd year players getting nominal stat boostsalways laugh at the baseball mags because you can nail what the mags say a player will do before you even get the mag, just subtract 10-15%it must be human nature to be conservative or a formula plugged in that makes the numbers come out less, but can EVERY PLAYER in the league be looking at 10% reduction in stats?obviously not so some players actually have to equal or exceed their previous year's stats, even some of the outstanding that being said i see a rise in rec and yards and ypc and targets with a drop in TDs (i think NE drops from their record scoring year because folks are gonna be able to drive the ball for awhile and score on them easier this year)...101/1576/19

 

[BigRed]

It's extremely logical to expect a dip in stats for a guy who has set NFL records re. those stats. Of course anything is possible, but the odds are well against Brady or Moss surpassing or equalling what they did last year.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Sure sounds primed for another huge year...

Gathering no Moss

No. 81 goes all-out for encore performance

By John Tomase | Thursday, August 7, 2008 | http://www.bostonherald.com | N.E. Patriots

FOXBORO - The Patriots [team stats] were practicing for their season ticket-holders Monday when an announcement came through the loudspeakers: The offense trailed, 21-17, and had 25 seconds to drive 40 yards for the winning score.

Tom Brady and Co. immediately went to work in the two-minute offense, and with just a few ticks of the clock left found themselves on the 8-yard line.

Brady dropped back and rifled a pass towards the goal posts that seemed sure to sail out of bounds. At least there’d be time for one more play.

Randy Moss had other ideas. The 6-foot-4 receiver with a reputation for dogging his way through training camp skied higher than Dwight Clark could dare to dream, snared the ball in his fingertips as part of a near cartwheel, and tapped both feet in bounds at the back of the end zone.

The crowd erupted and Moss momentarily appeared to consider unsheathing his “separation” celebration. Instead, he coolly dropped the ball and slapped a couple of teammates five, his jaunty body language making the statement loud and clear:

I am the baddest man on this field.

It’s a point that has gone relatively unnoticed this summer, in part because Moss has yet to address the media and has thus far kept a low profile, and in part because of the way he dominated the NFL last season. But it nonetheless is one of the most important developments of training camp.

Anyone wondering if Moss would lose motivation after the wonders of his record-setting 2007 and subsequent three-year, $27 million contract should think again. From the first day of camp, the 31-year-old has been the best player on the field by a margin far greater than the distance between his hands following a TD.

“He’s still ridiculous, man,” fellow receiver C.J. Jones said. “Every day, there’s something different. He’s a playmaker, so he’s always going to make plays in practice and in games. The same ones he makes in practice, he’s going to make in games. He’s a big-play playmaker.”

Moss’ highlight film catches have come at the rate of about one per practice since camp opened. As just one example, he corralled a Matt Cassel pass last week with a fully extended dive that featured him tipping the ball to himself just before he hit the ground.

“That’s about the third-best one I’ve seen so far from him the last two days,” CBS analyst Randy Cross marveled to the Herald.

Moss has made an assortment of balletic catches on the sideline, and it seems that every pass into traffic somehow finds his hands.

He also has had his way with every cornerback on the roster, be it veterans Fernando Bryant and Jason Webster or rookies Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite. He has beaten them on outs and crossing routes, and he has beaten them downfield. He has beaten them on the sidelines and across the middle. He has beaten them almost at will, and as a group, the corners are having a solid camp.

Wheatley said last week he and Wilhite often compare notes on covering No. 81.

“Did you see what Randy did on that play?” Wheatley recounted. “And how close was I? But yet I really wasn’t that close.”

A year ago at this time, Moss already was sidelined with a leg injury that kept him out until the start of the regular season. Multiple practice observers believed he was only moving at half-speed when healthy, anyway, and a small but vocal minority questioned his dedication.

Then the season started, and Moss rewrote the record books, catching 98 passes for 1,493 yards and an NFL-record 23 touchdowns.

There’s no telling what he has planned for an encore, but if what we’ve seen so far is any indication, Moss is locked, loaded and ready to roll.

jtomase@bostonherald.com Karen Guregian contributed to this report.

Article URL: http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/footbal...ticleid=1111604

 

[David Yudkin]

Sure sounds primed for another huge year...

There's a big difference between what should be considered "a huge year" and the best fantasy season ever by a WR.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Sure sounds primed for another huge year...

There's a big difference between what should be considered "a huge year" and the best fantasy season ever by a WR.

Thanks Dave.

 

[David Yudkin]

Sure sounds primed for another huge year...

There's a big difference between what should be considered "a huge year" and the best fantasy season ever by a WR.

Thanks Dave.

My point was that Moss could put up his normal 80-1250-12 (his average over his career). Would that be considered "huge?" Compared to other WRs, that's a great season. For Moss, though, that's pretty much average, and in NE that would almost be disappointing. For investing a mid first round draft pick, that would also be pretty disappointing.

 

[xenon]

With my draft likely to go (specualation and rumour)

1. LA

2. AP

3. Westy

4. Brady

I am strongly considering taking Randy Moss at #5. I am in a PPR league; 6 pts/TD; 1 pt/10 yds receiving w/ bonus at 100+ yds.

Generally, I am a RB first guy but not being sold on Addai (Dominic Rhodes factor + red zone passing by Manning) nor sold on SJAX (hold-out, questionable O-line) I think I will have no choice but to go with Moss. Having said that, can anyone convince me why I should not take him at #5 and why I should take either Addia or SJAX @ # 5 assuming both are still there? On another note, if I were to end up taking a RB, unless Westy miraculously falls, I would have to strongly consider Portis.

Taking Moss as my #1 also takes into consideration the suspensions of S. Smith and Brandon Marshall which with coupled with bye weeks means 2 of the top 15 WR's (according to ADP) will miss a large percentage of the fantasy season. The question begs, what are my WR options with my second round given those circumstances? Yes, both players will be around during playoff run but you gotta make the playoffs first and those missed games are crucial.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Sure sounds primed for another huge year...

There's a big difference between what should be considered "a huge year" and the best fantasy season ever by a WR.

Thanks Dave.

My point was that Moss could put up his normal 80-1250-12 (his average over his career). Would that be considered "huge?" Compared to other WRs, that's a great season. For Moss, though, that's pretty much average, and in NE that would almost be disappointing. For investing a mid first round draft pick, that would also be pretty disappointing.

Well you obviously follow the Patriots more closely than I do. But I'd be suprised if his TD receptions went below 15-16. Is there a safer redzone option than Brady-Moss? Moss has two things he didn't have last year at this time: health and rapport with Brady and his teammates.

 

[The Man With No Name]

92-1450-16

 

[Little Lord Humpleroy]

In the 6 games within the division last year Moss put up 38-677-11. I think those numbers against the AFC East will remain pretty much the same minus a slight dip in the TD totals.

Projection for this year 95-1500-17

 

[Cass Durham]

I have stated my opinion about Moss elsewhere this off-season, so here are the numbers:

100-1400-18