Player Spotlight: Roy Williams (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Roy Williams, WR, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Roy Williams Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[jurb26]

As far as talent goes, I think this is one of the more underrated WRs in football. It seems he is overshadowed by Johnson already even though Roy has proven to be better than Johnson. Injuries have shortened 3 of his 4 NFL seasons. In that one full season he posted 82/1310/7. Although it is getting difficult to project Williams for a full 16 games, I will still give him the benefit of the doubt for now seeing that his healthy season was not too far back.

80 receptions, 1220 yds, 9 TDs

 

[hankey2mlh]

It's a contract year for Roy. Assuming he won't miss any games , my projections are:

85 catches, 1250 yards, 8 TDs

 

[SSOG]

As far as talent goes, I think this is one of the more underrated WRs in football. It seems he is overshadowed by Johnson already even though Roy has proven to be better than Johnson. Injuries have shortened 3 of his 4 NFL seasons. In that one full season he posted 82/1310/7. Although it is getting difficult to project Williams for a full 16 games, I will still give him the benefit of the doubt for now seeing that his healthy season was not too far back.80 receptions, 1220 yds, 9 TDs

Funny, I was just going to say the opposite- as far as talent goes, I think Roy is one of the more overrated WRs in the league. He's at best, an average #1 guy in my mind. That's not a bad thing to be- an average #1 is still a very good WR, he's just not the elite talent that he's made out to be. I can easily name 16 guys I think are better, no question.So you have an average #1 WR with a history of injuries playing in an offense in flux with lots of question marks and another more talented WR possibly coming up to steal his thunder. His team's cupboard is looking pretty bare at QB. He's only had one really good fantasy season, and it happened to come in a season where his team attempted 1.96 passes for every run- I GUARANTEE you that's not happening again. And yet, despite all of this, he's the type of WR who winds up being drafted every year as someone's fantasy WR1. Not mine.I think 70 ypg is a reasonably optimistic projection for Mr. Williams (he's only beaten that figure once, and that was the 2:1 pass:rush season), which gives us 1120 yards as a starting point. I also think it's reasonable to question whether he'll play the full 16-game schedule. He's never scored more than 8 TDs, either. Keeping all of that in mind, I think 72/1008/7 is a reasonable projection.

 

[-OZ-]

As far as talent goes, I think this is one of the more underrated WRs in football. It seems he is overshadowed by Johnson already even though Roy has proven to be better than Johnson. Injuries have shortened 3 of his 4 NFL seasons. In that one full season he posted 82/1310/7. Although it is getting difficult to project Williams for a full 16 games, I will still give him the benefit of the doubt for now seeing that his healthy season was not too far back.

80 receptions, 1220 yds, 9 TDs

Funny, I was just going to say the opposite- as far as talent goes, I think Roy is one of the more overrated WRs in the league. He's at best, an average #1 guy in my mind. That's not a bad thing to be- an average #1 is still a very good WR, he's just not the elite talent that he's made out to be. I can easily name 16 guys I think are better, no question.So you have an average #1 WR with a history of injuries playing in an offense in flux with lots of question marks and another more talented WR possibly coming up to steal his thunder. His team's cupboard is looking pretty bare at QB. He's only had one really good fantasy season, and it happened to come in a season where his team attempted 1.96 passes for every run- I GUARANTEE you that's not happening again. And yet, despite all of this, he's the type of WR who winds up being drafted every year as someone's fantasy WR1. Not mine.

I think 70 ypg is a reasonably optimistic projection for Mr. Williams (he's only beaten that figure once, and that was the 2:1 pass:rush season), which gives us 1120 yards as a starting point. I also think it's reasonable to question whether he'll play the full 16-game schedule. He's never scored more than 8 TDs, either. Keeping all of that in mind, I think 72/1008/7 is a reasonable projection.

Even as an owner (thankfully, he's not my WR1), I think this is a good posting. It's a realistic view. The only thing I mildly disagree with is the bolded part. I can only name 8 I'd say "no question" about, Roy's part of a group of 12-14 that I'd rank as essentially equals. Still, your point remains, he will probably be drafted higher in redrafts than I would take him.

I'll even (essentially) agree with your projection but I like round #'s

4.5 / 70 / .5 per game

72 / 1120 / 8

 

[jurb26]

As far as talent goes, I think this is one of the more underrated WRs in football. It seems he is overshadowed by Johnson already even though Roy has proven to be better than Johnson. Injuries have shortened 3 of his 4 NFL seasons. In that one full season he posted 82/1310/7. Although it is getting difficult to project Williams for a full 16 games, I will still give him the benefit of the doubt for now seeing that his healthy season was not too far back.80 receptions, 1220 yds, 9 TDs

Funny, I was just going to say the opposite- as far as talent goes, I think Roy is one of the more overrated WRs in the league. He's at best, an average #1 guy in my mind. That's not a bad thing to be- an average #1 is still a very good WR, he's just not the elite talent that he's made out to be. I can easily name 16 guys I think are better, no question.So you have an average #1 WR with a history of injuries playing in an offense in flux with lots of question marks and another more talented WR possibly coming up to steal his thunder. His team's cupboard is looking pretty bare at QB. He's only had one really good fantasy season, and it happened to come in a season where his team attempted 1.96 passes for every run- I GUARANTEE you that's not happening again. And yet, despite all of this, he's the type of WR who winds up being drafted every year as someone's fantasy WR1. Not mine.I think 70 ypg is a reasonably optimistic projection for Mr. Williams (he's only beaten that figure once, and that was the 2:1 pass:rush season), which gives us 1120 yards as a starting point. I also think it's reasonable to question whether he'll play the full 16-game schedule. He's never scored more than 8 TDs, either. Keeping all of that in mind, I think 72/1008/7 is a reasonable projection.

I never said he was elite, but yeah he is a very capable #1. People around here act as though Johnson is better and he is nothing better than a #2 and that is just plain wrong. You even said in your post that Johnson is more talented. Based on what? So you think Johnson is better than an average #1 right now? You just spent all that time telling me why he is overrated and then state exactly why I said he was underrated in the first place. He's only had 1 good fantasy season? What? He scored 8, 8 and 7 TDs his 1st 3 years in the NFL. He did so while playing 12, 12 and 16 games. This guy has in fact been a good fantasy WR every year he has been in the league. He just hasn't stayed healthy any more than once. It's funny how people will continually tell us about how great Johnson is and how he had a very good rookie year posting 750/4 while missing time and battling injuries. Well, Williams posted 817/8 as a rookie and missed far MORE time. He posted 687/8 as a 2nd year player and missed far MORE time. He posted 838/5 last year and missed far MORE time yet again. Williams is being underrated.70 receptions is reasonably optimistic? Come on. The guy had 64 in 12 games last year. He had 82 the year before. Yeah he's never scored more than 8 TDs, but he has 7 TDs per season while only playing more than 12 games ONCE. He has scored less than 7 TDs only once in 4 years and that was in a 12 game season. The only way Williams doesn't get 70 receptions, 1000 yds and 7 TDs is if he is injured again IMO. Despite all the injuries and playing in Det, Williams averages 66 yds and 0.5 TDs per game. That translates to 1056/8 for 16 games. There is nothing about those numbers that suggest a bad fantasy WR.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Roy Williams is a good wide receiver but he plays with a mediocre quarterback playing behind a bad offensive line so it's tough to expect huge numbers. There's always the chance that he could still get traded. Going from Detroit to almost any other team in the NFL should be an improvement.

 

[SSOG]

I never said he was elite, but yeah he is a very capable #1. People around here act as though Johnson is better and he is nothing better than a #2 and that is just plain wrong. You even said in your post that Johnson is more talented. Based on what? So you think Johnson is better than an average #1 right now? You just spent all that time telling me why he is overrated and then state exactly why I said he was underrated in the first place.

I believe the general perception of Roy Williams right now is that he is an above-average NFL WR1. If you believe that he is underrated, then that, to me, suggests that you believe he is at least borderline elite (although it's entirely possible you just believe the general perception of Roy Williams is much lower than I do).Also, I said Johnson was more talented, not that he was a better WR. There's a huge difference, in my mind. I'm basing the statement that Calvin is more talented mostly on the general consensus that he was possibly the best WR prospect in draft history, a guy with no negatives. I think it'll take a while for him to put that talent together and start actually being productive, but that doesn't mean that the talent isn't there. I expect Roy to outproduce Calvin this year, despite Calvin being the more talented receiver.

He's only had 1 good fantasy season? What? He scored 8, 8 and 7 TDs his 1st 3 years in the NFL. He did so while playing 12, 12 and 16 games. This guy has in fact been a good fantasy WR every year he has been in the league. He just hasn't stayed healthy any more than once. It's funny how people will continually tell us about how great Johnson is and how he had a very good rookie year posting 750/4 while missing time and battling injuries. Well, Williams posted 817/8 as a rookie and missed far MORE time. He posted 687/8 as a 2nd year player and missed far MORE time. He posted 838/5 last year and missed far MORE time yet again. Williams is being underrated.

I never said Johnson had a very good rookie year. I just said that Roy Williams has only had one good fantasy season. And he's only had one season where he finished ranked higher than 29th, so I feel pretty justified in saying that. You can blame injuries all you want, but the fact remains that he's only had one good fantasy season. His injuries might be what held him back from good fantasy seasons, but make no mistake about it- he WAS held back from good fantasy seasons. Some people might even view the fact that he's so consistently missed so much time as a negative.

70 receptions is reasonably optimistic? Come on. The guy had 64 in 12 games last year. He had 82 the year before. Yeah he's never scored more than 8 TDs, but he has 7 TDs per season while only playing more than 12 games ONCE. He has scored less than 7 TDs only once in 4 years and that was in a 12 game season. The only way Williams doesn't get 70 receptions, 1000 yds and 7 TDs is if he is injured again IMO. Despite all the injuries and playing in Det, Williams averages 66 yds and 0.5 TDs per game. That translates to 1056/8 for 16 games. There is nothing about those numbers that suggest a bad fantasy WR.

So... wait, let me get this straight. Williams' career averages project to 1056/8 over a 16-game season, and you take exception to me projecting Williams to get 1008/7 (48 fewer yards and 1 fewer score) even after I said those numbers were shaded down for injury concerns? You readily acknowledge that the reason Williams' total numbers have been so consistently low is because of injury, and then argue with me downgrading my projections of him due to injury risk? I never said that Williams was a BAD fantasy WR, I just said he's a bad fantasy WR ONE, which is what he always seems to be drafted as (by someone other than me, thankfully). If I could get him as my WR3, I'd be very happy. Unfortunately, I can't, because with Roy Williams, the hype has always exceeded the production. Any time you need 16 games, 150+ targets, and a team with twice as many passes as rushes to just barely crack the fantasy top 10, I'm going to be doubtful of your prospects of becoming a reliable WR1.

 

[SSOG]

Funny, I was just going to say the opposite- as far as talent goes, I think Roy is one of the more overrated WRs in the league. He's at best, an average #1 guy in my mind. That's not a bad thing to be- an average #1 is still a very good WR, he's just not the elite talent that he's made out to be. I can easily name 16 guys I think are better, no question.

Even as an owner (thankfully, he's not my WR1), I think this is a good posting. It's a realistic view. The only thing I mildly disagree with is the bolded part. I can only name 8 I'd say "no question" about, Roy's part of a group of 12-14 that I'd rank as essentially equals. Still, your point remains, he will probably be drafted higher in redrafts than I would take him.

The WRs I had in mind were Moss, Owens, Braylon Edwards, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Torry Holt, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Lee Evans, Santonio Holmes, Brandon Marshall, Javon Walker, Marvin Harrison, and Hines Ward.This is assuming that we're only talking about a single season, and all of the WRs in question are at full health. I'd tier Roy Williams up with Housh, Santana Moss, Coles, Welker, and Galloway- which is by no means bad company to be in.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

57

822

7

For those that want to jump on those projections, how times has Williams cracked the top 28 ranked fantasy receivers? Even in a Martz offense, he did it once. For those that want to talk about his injuries, he has only missed nine games in four years, but still has disappointed.

 

[jurb26]

I never said he was elite, but yeah he is a very capable #1. People around here act as though Johnson is better and he is nothing better than a #2 and that is just plain wrong. You even said in your post that Johnson is more talented. Based on what? So you think Johnson is better than an average #1 right now? You just spent all that time telling me why he is overrated and then state exactly why I said he was underrated in the first place.

I believe the general perception of Roy Williams right now is that he is an above-average NFL WR1. If you believe that he is underrated, then that, to me, suggests that you believe he is at least borderline elite (although it's entirely possible you just believe the general perception of Roy Williams is much lower than I do).Also, I said Johnson was more talented, not that he was a better WR. There's a huge difference, in my mind. I'm basing the statement that Calvin is more talented mostly on the general consensus that he was possibly the best WR prospect in draft history, a guy with no negatives. I think it'll take a while for him to put that talent together and start actually being productive, but that doesn't mean that the talent isn't there. I expect Roy to outproduce Calvin this year, despite Calvin being the more talented receiver.

He's only had 1 good fantasy season? What? He scored 8, 8 and 7 TDs his 1st 3 years in the NFL. He did so while playing 12, 12 and 16 games. This guy has in fact been a good fantasy WR every year he has been in the league. He just hasn't stayed healthy any more than once. It's funny how people will continually tell us about how great Johnson is and how he had a very good rookie year posting 750/4 while missing time and battling injuries. Well, Williams posted 817/8 as a rookie and missed far MORE time. He posted 687/8 as a 2nd year player and missed far MORE time. He posted 838/5 last year and missed far MORE time yet again. Williams is being underrated.

I never said Johnson had a very good rookie year. I just said that Roy Williams has only had one good fantasy season. And he's only had one season where he finished ranked higher than 29th, so I feel pretty justified in saying that. You can blame injuries all you want, but the fact remains that he's only had one good fantasy season. His injuries might be what held him back from good fantasy seasons, but make no mistake about it- he WAS held back from good fantasy seasons. Some people might even view the fact that he's so consistently missed so much time as a negative.

70 receptions is reasonably optimistic? Come on. The guy had 64 in 12 games last year. He had 82 the year before. Yeah he's never scored more than 8 TDs, but he has 7 TDs per season while only playing more than 12 games ONCE. He has scored less than 7 TDs only once in 4 years and that was in a 12 game season. The only way Williams doesn't get 70 receptions, 1000 yds and 7 TDs is if he is injured again IMO. Despite all the injuries and playing in Det, Williams averages 66 yds and 0.5 TDs per game. That translates to 1056/8 for 16 games. There is nothing about those numbers that suggest a bad fantasy WR.

So... wait, let me get this straight. Williams' career averages project to 1056/8 over a 16-game season, and you take exception to me projecting Williams to get 1008/7 (48 fewer yards and 1 fewer score) even after I said those numbers were shaded down for injury concerns? You readily acknowledge that the reason Williams' total numbers have been so consistently low is because of injury, and then argue with me downgrading my projections of him due to injury risk? I never said that Williams was a BAD fantasy WR, I just said he's a bad fantasy WR ONE, which is what he always seems to be drafted as (by someone other than me, thankfully). If I could get him as my WR3, I'd be very happy. Unfortunately, I can't, because with Roy Williams, the hype has always exceeded the production. Any time you need 16 games, 150+ targets, and a team with twice as many passes as rushes to just barely crack the fantasy top 10, I'm going to be doubtful of your prospects of becoming a reliable WR1.

Yes I think your perception of how the majority views Williams and mine are vastly different. Like I said, I think most view him as a good #2 and not a good #1. As far as talent, before there was Johnson there was Fitz, before there was Fitz there was ROY before there was ROY there was..... We have heard that each one of these guys was the best WR prospect ever and the list could go on and on. Johnson most certainly does have weaknesses and he had weaknesses coming out as a prospect too. Some people don't happen to agree with them or acknowledge them but they are there. I gotta run, now but I'll try to get to your other points tonight.

 

[gman8343]

Funny, I was just going to say the opposite- as far as talent goes, I think Roy is one of the more overrated WRs in the league. He's at best, an average #1 guy in my mind. That's not a bad thing to be- an average #1 is still a very good WR, he's just not the elite talent that he's made out to be. I can easily name 16 guys I think are better, no question.

Even as an owner (thankfully, he's not my WR1), I think this is a good posting. It's a realistic view. The only thing I mildly disagree with is the bolded part. I can only name 8 I'd say "no question" about, Roy's part of a group of 12-14 that I'd rank as essentially equals. Still, your point remains, he will probably be drafted higher in redrafts than I would take him.

The WRs I had in mind were Moss, Owens, Braylon Edwards, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Torry Holt, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Lee Evans, Santonio Holmes, Brandon Marshall, Javon Walker, Marvin Harrison, and Hines Ward.This is assuming that we're only talking about a single season, and all of the WRs in question are at full health. I'd tier Roy Williams up with Housh, Santana Moss, Coles, Welker, and Galloway- which is by no means bad company to be in.

I'd take ROY over Evans, Holmes, Walker, Harrison and Ward without question. I think he's about even with Boldin. The others I like over him, though. I think ROY has elite talent. He hasn't really put up elite numbers on a consistant basis. That's okay. I think he will put it together. The trick in fantasy football is to grab the guy before he's at the top of his game so you get the best value for him. Braylon Edwards was an elite talent that had some injury issues and hadn't quite produced like an uber stud... until last year. Now he's widely regarded as a top 3 WR. If you traded for him in a dynasty league last year you probably got him quite cheap compared to what he is worth now. I'm looking for a similar bump in value for Williams this year (perhaps hoping??). But we'll see.

88 catches, 1320 yds, 9 TDs

 

[shadyridr]

Hes never been a big YPC or TD guy. Plus I think Calvin makes THE LEAP this year. Ill go with:

80-1080-7

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

83 1212 7

This is the first year where his adp lines up with my ranking, would be weired owning this guy.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Count me in with the group that sees elite potential in Roy Williams. His only truly disappointing year was last year, given where expectations should have been in years 1 - 2, and his very solid 2006. Constantly getting banged up and missing time is a very valid concern, as is the perpetually suspect Detroit offense. As a long-time owner, I really hope he moves on to a more fantasy-friendly situation when his contract is up.

75 catches for 1100 yards and 7 TDs, minimal rushing

 

[Ministry of Pain]

578227For those that want to jump on those projections, how times has Williams cracked the top 28 ranked fantasy receivers? Even in a Martz offense, he did it once. For those that want to talk about his injuries, he has only missed nine games in four years, but still has disappointed.

What he said. 64 rec900 yds6 TD

 

[Todem]

85 for 1275 9 TD's

 

[rzrback77]

I think that the Lions want to run the ball more in 08, but it just won't happen that way. They will continue to play from behind and will continue to throw. I think that Roy Williams is the most talented WR that they have and he and Calvin Johnson will see more targets with McDonald's role the one that is reduced post-Martz. I also like Kitna in redraft for 08. My projections for Roy Williams assumes that he plays all 16 games, but this has only happened once in his four seasons. Even without the Martz offense....

Roy Williams 140 targets 84 catches 1280 yards 15.2 ypc and 8 TDs

 

[Jon_Moore]

578227For those that want to jump on those projections, how times has Williams cracked the top 28 ranked fantasy receivers? Even in a Martz offense, he did it once. For those that want to talk about his injuries, he has only missed nine games in four years, but still has disappointed.

What he said. 64 rec900 yds6 TD

What they said I think the guy is as talented as they come, but has never put it all together. Jon Kitna isn't a bad quarterback, and the pass attempts have been there, there just isn't alot of reason for the lack of successs.62 receptions877 yards8 tds

 

[menobrown]

My projections for Roy Williams assumes that he plays all 16 games, but this has only happened once in his four seasons.

Even that is misleading. I heard some other people applaud Roy for finally playing all 16 games in 2006 which he did but for fantasy football purposes he did something worse than miss games and that is exited two games in the first quarter after getting hurt and making almost no impact. This is one of the worst things about Roy. In his career he has left 5 games before halftime due to injury and missed 8 games in their entirety. He was also constantly banged up in college. Injuries are the reason I will be avoiding him.

 

[finito]

Hes never been a big YPC or TD guy. Plus I think Calvin makes THE LEAP this year. Ill go with:80-1080-7

Let's take a look at this...ROY's YPC for his career is 14.9, ahead of guys like Terrell Owens (14.8), Marvin Harrison (13.4), Torry Holt (14.7), Reggie Wayne (14.1), Steve Smith (13.1), Larry Fitzgerald (13.8) and Andre Johnson (11.8)His TD to catch ratio is 1 TD for every 8.75 catches. Compared to guys like Torry Holt (over 11 catches for every TD), Reggie Wayne (about 10.5 catches per TD), Steve Smith (over 11.5 catches per TD), Chad Johnson (over 11 catches per TD), Larry Fitzgerald (9.70 catches per TD), and Andre Johnson (14.84 catches per TD)I think your assertian that he's not a big TD guy and has a poor YPC is dead wrong. ROY has missed a few games due to injury and played hurt in a few others but his TD/Catch ratio is very, very good and he has a strong career YPC, rivaling many of the best in the game. This to me says that this is a guy with uberstud potential. Whether he reaches his potential I don't know, but to suggest he isn't capable of being a bit TD/YPC guy seems ludicrous to me.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I also have to admit that I am afraid of the QB situation. Yes, Kitna is solid. But, do you really have faith in Stanton (who is not looking good already) or big DanO?

The offensive line is not in good shape. Many expect Marinelli to want to run the ball ... until they are down a lot ... like that won't happen

 

[LBH]

He becomes WR option #2 this year imo. Calvin Johnson should free him up for a decent amount of 1 on 1 oppurtunities though

75 950 6

 

[yesitsme]

Only once in his career has Roy Williams gone over 1000 yards and once in fantasy football has he finished the year in the top 25. He's the most overrated wide receiver in fantasy football. Going into this year, he's not entirely happy with his situation with the Lions and the Lions admittedly are going to try and run the ball more than in years past.

65 receptions for 850 yards and 6 td's

 

[loose circuits]

Roy wants to get paid. The Lions are still going to have a lousy D, fall behind early, and be forced to play catch-up. With less multiple WR sets, Roy shouldn't see less targets regardless of CJ21's development.

80 1170 7

 

[Kiddnets]

Hes never been a big YPC or TD guy. Plus I think Calvin makes THE LEAP this year. Ill go with:80-1080-7

not to hijack but curious what numbers constitute the leap for Calvin....

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

He's sounding like a nice buy low based on this thread.

80/1150/8 - 15-16 ppg (PPR) - WR15

 

[shadyridr]

Hes never been a big YPC or TD guy. Plus I think Calvin makes THE LEAP this year. Ill go with:80-1080-7

not to hijack but curious what numbers constitute the leap for Calvin....

Well he put up horrible #s last year so even similar #s to Roy this year would be a leap for him

 

[gman8343]

Hes never been a big YPC or TD guy. Plus I think Calvin makes THE LEAP this year. Ill go with:80-1080-7

Let's take a look at this...ROY's YPC for his career is 14.9, ahead of guys like Terrell Owens (14.8), Marvin Harrison (13.4), Torry Holt (14.7), Reggie Wayne (14.1), Steve Smith (13.1), Larry Fitzgerald (13.8) and Andre Johnson (11.8)His TD to catch ratio is 1 TD for every 8.75 catches. Compared to guys like Torry Holt (over 11 catches for every TD), Reggie Wayne (about 10.5 catches per TD), Steve Smith (over 11.5 catches per TD), Chad Johnson (over 11 catches per TD), Larry Fitzgerald (9.70 catches per TD), and Andre Johnson (14.84 catches per TD)I think your assertian that he's not a big TD guy and has a poor YPC is dead wrong. ROY has missed a few games due to injury and played hurt in a few others but his TD/Catch ratio is very, very good and he has a strong career YPC, rivaling many of the best in the game. This to me says that this is a guy with uberstud potential. Whether he reaches his potential I don't know, but to suggest he isn't capable of being a bit TD/YPC guy seems ludicrous to me.

Very interesting numbers. Does this mean the only thing holding him back is his health, or perhaps the number of targets/catches he gets per game as opposed to guys like AJ and Holt, who always seem to get a ton of targets...???Good stuff.

 

[BigJim®]

I like Roy for 2008. First off, he's in a contract season, which typically brings out the best in inconsistent players. Second, no Martz will hurt WRs like McDonald/Furrey but should definitely help Roy/Calvin. Kitna will have more time, running game will not be abandoned, and this should lead to better opportunities for the WRs who can create huge mismatches downfield. What most fail to recognize/acknowledge is Martz system is not a good fit for WRs like Calvin/Roy.

80/1200/10

 

[thehornet]

As far as talent goes, I think this is one of the more underrated WRs in football. It seems he is overshadowed by Johnson already even though Roy has proven to be better than Johnson. Injuries have shortened 3 of his 4 NFL seasons. In that one full season he posted 82/1310/7. Although it is getting difficult to project Williams for a full 16 games, I will still give him the benefit of the doubt for now seeing that his healthy season was not too far back.80 receptions, 1220 yds, 9 TDs

Funny, I was just going to say the opposite- as far as talent goes, I think Roy is one of the more overrated WRs in the league. He's at best, an average #1 guy in my mind. That's not a bad thing to be- an average #1 is still a very good WR, he's just not the elite talent that he's made out to be. I can easily name 16 guys I think are better, no question.So you have an average #1 WR with a history of injuries playing in an offense in flux with lots of question marks and another more talented WR possibly coming up to steal his thunder. His team's cupboard is looking pretty bare at QB. He's only had one really good fantasy season, and it happened to come in a season where his team attempted 1.96 passes for every run- I GUARANTEE you that's not happening again. And yet, despite all of this, he's the type of WR who winds up being drafted every year as someone's fantasy WR1. Not mine.I think 70 ypg is a reasonably optimistic projection for Mr. Williams (he's only beaten that figure once, and that was the 2:1 pass:rush season), which gives us 1120 yards as a starting point. I also think it's reasonable to question whether he'll play the full 16-game schedule. He's never scored more than 8 TDs, either. Keeping all of that in mind, I think 72/1008/7 is a reasonable projection.

easily find 16 guys that are better? Go ahead. You wont find it. Roy Williams is still an athletic freak. Just because there happens to be an even bigger freak lining up next to him now doesn't mean he isnt still one of the best.Without getting overly analytical, let's look at 3 bits on info:1. He's still only 26! The dude is young.2. He has played on a horrible, if not the worst team since coming in to the NFL3. Contract yearCouple those things with the fact that martz is gone, which i believe he benefits from, and i think you have the ingredients for a very nice year from ROY. Never project injuries. 85/1180/10

 

[TD Ryan]

2. He has played on a horrible, if not the worst team since coming in to the NFL

I have Roy so I want him to do well.But despite the horrible DET Lions, Roy has been on an offense that's passed for over 4,000 yards in 2 consecutive seasons.everything with FFball is talent + opportunity. I can't imagine that the "opportunity" part can get any better for a WR.

 

[thehornet]

2. He has played on a horrible, if not the worst team since coming in to the NFL

I have Roy so I want him to do well.But despite the horrible DET Lions, Roy has been on an offense that's passed for over 4,000 yards in 2 consecutive seasons.everything with FFball is talent + opportunity. I can't imagine that the "opportunity" part can get any better for a WR.

martz offense never really utlized roy or calvin last year.he didnt have as many looks as you think. martz uses his slot guys way more. that's why furrey and macdonald had so many looks. the breakdown on Lions WR looks are in other threads so i want go into it here.

 

[gianmarco]

2. He has played on a horrible, if not the worst team since coming in to the NFL

I have Roy so I want him to do well.But despite the horrible DET Lions, Roy has been on an offense that's passed for over 4,000 yards in 2 consecutive seasons.

everything with FFball is talent + opportunity. I can't imagine that the "opportunity" part can get any better for a WR.

Did you seriously say that the opportunity can't get any better for a player on the Detroit Lions? I will respectfully disagree. In fact, I don't think it can get much worse, especially with Martz out of town. Here's a little info about the vaunted Detroit passing offense. These are their passing ranks over the last few years. Martz came in 2006. Now he's left.2002 -- 25th

2003 -- 24th

2004 -- 26th

2005 -- 23rd

2006 -- 7th

2007 -- 9th

Now, I know they have the esteemed Kitna at the helm and I know they now have 2 stud WR's. But this is the Lions we're talking about. I'm not saying they will regress into the bottom 5-10 in the league, but calling this an opportunity that can't get better is overestimation at best.

 

[valhallan]

2. He has played on a horrible, if not the worst team since coming in to the NFL

I have Roy so I want him to do well.But despite the horrible DET Lions, Roy has been on an offense that's passed for over 4,000 yards in 2 consecutive seasons.

everything with FFball is talent + opportunity. I can't imagine that the "opportunity" part can get any better for a WR.

Did you seriously say that the opportunity can't get any better for a player on the Detroit Lions? I will respectfully disagree. In fact, I don't think it can get much worse, especially with Martz out of town. Here's a little info about the vaunted Detroit passing offense. These are their passing ranks over the last few years. Martz came in 2006. Now he's left.2002 -- 25th

2003 -- 24th

2004 -- 26th

2005 -- 23rd

2006 -- 7th

2007 -- 9th

Now, I know they have the esteemed Kitna at the helm and I know they now have 2 stud WR's. But this is the Lions we're talking about. I'm not saying they will regress into the bottom 5-10 in the league, but calling this an opportunity that can't get better is overestimation at best.

I think he meant the opportunity of the last two years was as good as it gets, which would mean Roy didn't produce when the stars were properly aligned. However, we're conveniently forgetting that he had a top 10 season in 2006 and was on his way to 85/1150/7 (about WR15) before getting hurt last season.Anyway, I don't agree that the opportunities with Martz were any greater than they will be now, given that scheme's penchant for using 3rd and 4th receivers just as much as the number 1.

 

[thehornet]

2. He has played on a horrible, if not the worst team since coming in to the NFL

I have Roy so I want him to do well.But despite the horrible DET Lions, Roy has been on an offense that's passed for over 4,000 yards in 2 consecutive seasons.

everything with FFball is talent + opportunity. I can't imagine that the "opportunity" part can get any better for a WR.

Did you seriously say that the opportunity can't get any better for a player on the Detroit Lions? I will respectfully disagree. In fact, I don't think it can get much worse, especially with Martz out of town. Here's a little info about the vaunted Detroit passing offense. These are their passing ranks over the last few years. Martz came in 2006. Now he's left.2002 -- 25th

2003 -- 24th

2004 -- 26th

2005 -- 23rd

2006 -- 7th

2007 -- 9th

Now, I know they have the esteemed Kitna at the helm and I know they now have 2 stud WR's. But this is the Lions we're talking about. I'm not saying they will regress into the bottom 5-10 in the league, but calling this an opportunity that can't get better is overestimation at best.

I think he meant the opportunity of the last two years was as good as it gets, which would mean Roy didn't produce when the stars were properly aligned. However, we're conveniently forgetting that he had a top 10 season in 2006 and was on his way to 85/1150/7 (about WR15) before getting hurt last season.Anyway, I don't agree that the opportunities with Martz were any greater than they will be now, given that scheme's penchant for using 3rd and 4th receivers just as much as the number 1.

 

[TD Ryan]

martz offense never really utlized roy or calvin last year.he didnt have as many looks as you think. martz uses his slot guys way more. that's why furrey and macdonald had so many looks. the breakdown on Lions WR looks are in other threads so i want go into it here.

I'll buy into this.Martz's offense favored the smaller, underneath guys.

these are their passing ranks over the last few years. Martz came in 2006. Now he's left.

2002 -- 25th

2003 -- 24th

2004 -- 26th

2005 -- 23rd

2006 -- 7th

2007 -- 9th

these numbers you've given us support my thinking.The 7th and 9th overall passing offense in the NFL... it can't get much better than that for a WR as far as opportunity is concerned.

Kitna was #2 in attempts (596) in '06 and #4 (563) in '07.

And OK, I understand that maybe Martz wasn't using Roy in the best manner.

But Roy's target numbers under Martz were still up from previous years:

'07 12games, 104 targets (8.6 per game), 800yds/5tds

'06 16games, 151 targets (9.4 per game), 1300yds/7tds

'05 13games, 95 targets (7.2 per game), 680yds/8tds

'04 14games, 118 targets (8.4 per game), 800/8tds

What do I read into these numbers?

Roy got about one extra look per game in the Martz offense, an offense that was near the top in passing and attempts.

So whatever new offense or scheme the team changes to, it isn't likely that the system will give Roy more looks/chances/opportunity.

Maybe the new scheme will allow Roy do do more with less opportunity? As a Roy owner, that's what I'm hoping (that and maybe he'll stay healthy for 16).

But I stand by my original statement that Roy isn't likely to see more opportunity now that the pass happy Martz is gone.

 

[Traders2001]

Funny, I was just going to say the opposite- as far as talent goes, I think Roy is one of the more overrated WRs in the league. He's at best, an average #1 guy in my mind. That's not a bad thing to be- an average #1 is still a very good WR, he's just not the elite talent that he's made out to be. I can easily name 16 guys I think are better, no question.

Even as an owner (thankfully, he's not my WR1), I think this is a good posting. It's a realistic view. The only thing I mildly disagree with is the bolded part. I can only name 8 I'd say "no question" about, Roy's part of a group of 12-14 that I'd rank as essentially equals. Still, your point remains, he will probably be drafted higher in redrafts than I would take him.

The WRs I had in mind were Moss, Owens, Braylon Edwards, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Torry Holt, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Lee Evans, Santonio Holmes, Brandon Marshall, Javon Walker, Marvin Harrison, and Hines Ward.This is assuming that we're only talking about a single season, and all of the WRs in question are at full health. I'd tier Roy Williams up with Housh, Santana Moss, Coles, Welker, and Galloway- which is by no means bad company to be in.

Lee Evans, Santonio Holmes, Javon Walker, Marvin Harrison, and Hines Ward. No way those guys are better then Williams . ( Holmes is borderline )

 

[Traders2001]

Hes never been a big YPC or TD guy. Plus I think Calvin makes THE LEAP this year. Ill go with:80-1080-7

Let's take a look at this...ROY's YPC for his career is 14.9, ahead of guys like Terrell Owens (14.8), Marvin Harrison (13.4), Torry Holt (14.7), Reggie Wayne (14.1), Steve Smith (13.1), Larry Fitzgerald (13.8) and Andre Johnson (11.8)His TD to catch ratio is 1 TD for every 8.75 catches. Compared to guys like Torry Holt (over 11 catches for every TD), Reggie Wayne (about 10.5 catches per TD), Steve Smith (over 11.5 catches per TD), Chad Johnson (over 11 catches per TD), Larry Fitzgerald (9.70 catches per TD), and Andre Johnson (14.84 catches per TD)I think your assertian that he's not a big TD guy and has a poor YPC is dead wrong. ROY has missed a few games due to injury and played hurt in a few others but his TD/Catch ratio is very, very good and he has a strong career YPC, rivaling many of the best in the game. This to me says that this is a guy with uberstud potential. Whether he reaches his potential I don't know, but to suggest he isn't capable of being a bit TD/YPC guy seems ludicrous to me.

If he would get traded to credible NFL team he would be a top 8 WR.But on this Mickey Mouse Lion organization forget about it , Calvin will suffer from that big time also.Actually if they were going to move a franchise to Toronto it should be the Lions ( But before you fire everyone running this team and you have fresh start in TO ) those guys dont deserve a team in the NFL and the only way to egt rid of this management would be selling the team.

 

[gianmarco]

martz offense never really utlized roy or calvin last year.he didnt have as many looks as you think. martz uses his slot guys way more. that's why furrey and macdonald had so many looks. the breakdown on Lions WR looks are in other threads so i want go into it here.

I'll buy into this.Martz's offense favored the smaller, underneath guys.

these are their passing ranks over the last few years. Martz came in 2006. Now he's left.

2002 -- 25th

2003 -- 24th

2004 -- 26th

2005 -- 23rd

2006 -- 7th

2007 -- 9th

these numbers you've given us support my thinking.The 7th and 9th overall passing offense in the NFL... it can't get much better than that for a WR as far as opportunity is concerned.

Kitna was #2 in attempts (596) in '06 and #4 (563) in '07.

And OK, I understand that maybe Martz wasn't using Roy in the best manner.

But Roy's target numbers under Martz were still up from previous years:

'07 12games, 104 targets (8.6 per game), 800yds/5tds

'06 16games, 151 targets (9.4 per game), 1300yds/7tds

'05 13games, 95 targets (7.2 per game), 680yds/8tds

'04 14games, 118 targets (8.4 per game), 800/8tds

What do I read into these numbers?

Roy got about one extra look per game in the Martz offense, an offense that was near the top in passing and attempts.

So whatever new offense or scheme the team changes to, it isn't likely that the system will give Roy more looks/chances/opportunity.

Maybe the new scheme will allow Roy do do more with less opportunity? As a Roy owner, that's what I'm hoping (that and maybe he'll stay healthy for 16).

But I stand by my original statement that Roy isn't likely to see more opportunity now that the pass happy Martz is gone.

As pointed out above, I misread your post. We're arguing the same thing. I thought you meant his opportunity NOW couldn't be any better. You were talking about over the last 2 years and I agree with you.But, as also pointed out, the departure of Martz isn't all bad either as it should result in increased looks for the #1 and #2 WRs so it will probably balance out.