Player Spotlight: San Diego Chargers Receiving Corps (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Keenan Allen, Danario Alexander, Vincent Brown and Malcom Floyd, WRs, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Keenan Allen Player Page

Player Page Link: Danario Alexander Player Page

Player Page Link: Vincent Brown Player Page

Player Page Link: Malcom Floyd Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

 

[Shutout]

The fact that the wr corps is featured as a group and not individual players tells me everything we need to know: avoid.

 

[lbouchard]

The fact that the wr corps is featured as a group and not individual players tells me everything we need to know: avoid.

I'm buying all day on DX. Was a top 10 WR down the stretch. Now has an ADP of WR39. Hasn't had knee surgery in what, 3 years? Big upside.

 

[Beerguzzler]

The fact that the wr corps is featured as a group and not individual players tells me everything we need to know: avoid.

I would agree. There will be plenty of fantasy points spread around this group. Just have no clue who will be the one with the most. Coupled with Denario's health risk, it's a crap shoot. That being said, DX is the best bet of the bunch to produce WR2 numbers if he can manage to stay on the field. I wouldn't hesitate to get him at WR3 value. You just better have a solid backup WR4.

 

[Air Stich]

Someone from this group is likely to outperform their ADP.

I prefer Vincent Brown at his basement price. DX has upside, but he's going in the 7th before Cecil Shorts and Miles Austin.

 

[donkshow]

I want DX but he'll go before I have the chance to get him.

At the price, I'll want Brown all day.

 

[Beerguzzler]

I love Brown this season, but it's likely going to require an injury for him to get consistent snaps. That goes for the entire WR corps.

 

[FF Ninja]

McCoy (HC) and Whisenhunt (OC) don't have distinguishable offensive styles, so I'm not sure what to expect out of this offense. The offense ranked 31st in yards last year, so I'm betting on it to improve. Just not sure if one guy will benefit enough for him to be a FF starter. I mean, someone will crack WR36, but you probably aren't winning games if you have a bottom tier WR3 in your WR3 spot. DX had a nice stretch run last year, but he was getting like 10 targets a game for a while. I can't bank on that happening again. My guess is that he's probably the best talent, so if you miss him, do you really want Vincent Brown? He's cheap at WR52, but will this offense support a WR2 becoming a fantasy option? Gates is 33 but he's still relevant. I saw Waldman's article mentioned that he consistently drew the other team's #1 CB which probably also played into DX's success. Should Gates slow down or just not be the focus of the defense then the WRs will see more attention.

I guess where I'm going with this is that I fully believe this unit will be improved, but I don't expect anyone to stand out. I'm buying on Rivers and Mathews, but don't think anyone here will be a consistent fantasy play. They'd be great value plays for a best ball league, but likely won't make it into many winning starting lineups in normal formats.

 

[Beerguzzler]

McCoy (HC) and Whisenhunt (OC) don't have distinguishable offensive styles, so I'm not sure what to expect out of this offense. The offense ranked 31st in yards last year, so I'm betting on it to improve. Just not sure if one guy will benefit enough for him to be a FF starter. I mean, someone will crack WR36, but you probably aren't winning games if you have a bottom tier WR3 in your WR3 spot. DX had a nice stretch run last year, but he was getting like 10 targets a game for a while. I can't bank on that happening again. My guess is that he's probably the best talent, so if you miss him, do you really want Vincent Brown? He's cheap at WR52, but will this offense support a WR2 becoming a fantasy option? Gates is 33 but he's still relevant. I saw Waldman's article mentioned that he consistently drew the other team's #1 CB which probably also played into DX's success. Should Gates slow down or just not be the focus of the defense then the WRs will see more attention.

I guess where I'm going with this is that I fully believe this unit will be improved, but I don't expect anyone to stand out. I'm buying on Rivers and Mathews, but don't think anyone here will be a consistent fantasy play. They'd be great value plays for a best ball league, but likely won't make it into many winning starting lineups in normal formats.

The key word in your post - consistent. Don't take any Chargers if you expect consistency. I see a few guys rotating big games based on what defenses give Rivers.

As far as offensive systems being run, think Broncos of last year. McCoy wants to emphasize quick drops and a short/intermediate passing game with high completion passes. Gone are the days of 7 step drops every attempt and multiple bombs weekly. I also expect the running game to be a point of emphasis.

 

[Sabertooth]

By the end of the year I think Keenan Allen will begin to assert himself as the best player in this group. He slid in the draft due to injury and some character concerns. But check out this posting from about 14 months ago.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=638041

He didn't just slip in the draft, he slid bigtime. He was considered the best WR in this class at one point. Got hurt, has some character questions and slid down the board. But he's still big and strong and fast and can just play football. He's a lot like DX but with a cleaner bill of health. I don't see a guy like Malcolm Floyd or Vincent Brown keeping him down once he gets his feet under him.

 

[hauser42]

Brown or Alexander I going to have a solid season and could be a WR3 or high end WR4. McCoy has proven to be a guy that adapts his offense to his talent. Rivers will be better than last year and this team will put up points again and suprise people that they are back as an offense. I prefer Brown as Alexander has more of an injury history.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Eddie Royal could have some deep sleeper potential as the slot guy if he stays healthy.

 

[Tau837]

Eddie Royal could have some deep sleeper potential as the slot guy if he stays healthy.

Disagree. He will almost certainly be behind (in no particular order) Gates, Floyd, Alexander, Brown, Allen, and Woodhead in targets. And maybe also behind Mathews. If he is behind 6-7 guys, how much of a deep sleeper could he be?

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Eddie Royal could have some deep sleeper potential as the slot guy if he stays healthy.

Disagree. He will almost certainly be behind (in no particular order) Gates, Floyd, Alexander, Brown, Allen, and Woodhead in targets. And maybe also behind Mathews. If he is behind 6-7 guys, how much of a deep sleeper could he be?

He'll be the starting slot receiver in an offense that will throw the ball short more often, on a team with an injury risk at WR1, an injury risk at WR2, an injury risk at TE, and other unknowns. I'm just saying that if he's the guy that happens to stay healthy, he could benefit.

 

[Dragon1952]

If he stays healthy Danario Alexander will greatly outperform his current ADP. When he finally got halfway healthy and in synch last year, week 10-17 he was WR8 at nearly 17ppg in PPR formats.

 

[ol blues]

Interesting choices here. Vincent Brown in the right offense has the possession receiver potential of the healthy (now retired) Steve Smith. Keenan Allen is the smoothest route runner of the lot. And Danario Alexander, for all of the speed and quickness lost as a result of his multiple knee procedures, is still a playmaker. The problem is Rivers is in major retreat from his halcyon days and the OL figures to be as porous as it was in 2012. So, even if Floyd doesn't figure to fit into the new offense and Gates is a shadow of his former self, how much production figures to come from any of these guys? Probably not enough anytime soon. Allen is certainly worth the meager price you pay in Dynasty for a potential stud and Brown's ADP in redraft makes him a reasonable flyer, but none look like redraft league starters.

 

[FF Ninja]

By the end of the year I think Keenan Allen will begin to assert himself as the best player in this group. He slid in the draft due to injury and some character concerns. But check out this posting from about 14 months ago.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=638041

He didn't just slip in the draft, he slid bigtime. He was considered the best WR in this class at one point. Got hurt, has some character questions and slid down the board. But he's still big and strong and fast and can just play football. He's a lot like DX but with a cleaner bill of health. I don't see a guy like Malcolm Floyd or Vincent Brown keeping him down once he gets his feet under him.

I missed that thread. That's a good reference. I try to pay attention to Waldman. At WR71 (221 overall), Keenan Allen just made my end of the draft sleeper list. I'll keep an eye on him in the preseason. I usually don't bother with rookies in redrafts, but I'll definitely look at him a little closer in keeper leagues. With Danario's health, he might get a chance to produce even if he can't win a starting job.

Measurables

Height: 6'2"

Weight: 206 lbs.

Arm Length: 32.75"

Hand Size: 10"

Pro Day Results

40-yard dash: 4.71 seconds

Article mentioning how he might slip to the 2nd round:

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2013/4/10/4210738/2013-nfl-draft-mel-kiper-bjoern-werner-keenan-allen

 

[Sabertooth]

By the end of the year I think Keenan Allen will begin to assert himself as the best player in this group. He slid in the draft due to injury and some character concerns. But check out this posting from about 14 months ago.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=638041

He didn't just slip in the draft, he slid bigtime. He was considered the best WR in this class at one point. Got hurt, has some character questions and slid down the board. But he's still big and strong and fast and can just play football. He's a lot like DX but with a cleaner bill of health. I don't see a guy like Malcolm Floyd or Vincent Brown keeping him down once he gets his feet under him.

I missed that thread. That's a good reference. I try to pay attention to Waldman. At WR71 (221 overall), Keenan Allen just made my end of the draft sleeper list. I'll keep an eye on him in the preseason. I usually don't bother with rookies in redrafts, but I'll definitely look at him a little closer in keeper leagues. With Danario's health, he might get a chance to produce even if he can't win a starting job.

Measurables

Height: 6'2"

Weight: 206 lbs.

Arm Length: 32.75"

Hand Size: 10"

Pro Day Results

40-yard dash: 4.71 seconds

Article mentioning how he might slip to the 2nd round:

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2013/4/10/4210738/2013-nfl-draft-mel-kiper-bjoern-werner-keenan-allen

Right, but he slid to the third round. I like where they say he was the second WR on their board before the injury. Lots of guys get injured all the time. His injury doesn't scare me one bit. Greg Jennings, Percy Harvin, and Danny Amendola were all injured last year too. But that isn't even considered really when assessing their draft slot.

I think Allen is going to ascend rather quickly. Like him a lot.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

avoid

 

[Tau837]

Eddie Royal could have some deep sleeper potential as the slot guy if he stays healthy.

Disagree. He will almost certainly be behind (in no particular order) Gates, Floyd, Alexander, Brown, Allen, and Woodhead in targets. And maybe also behind Mathews. If he is behind 6-7 guys, how much of a deep sleeper could he be?

He'll be the starting slot receiver in an offense that will throw the ball short more often, on a team with an injury risk at WR1, an injury risk at WR2, an injury risk at TE, and other unknowns. I'm just saying that if he's the guy that happens to stay healthy, he could benefit.

I seriously doubt Royal will be the starting slot receiver. He's not even a lock to make the team. If he does, I don't think he will get starter snaps.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

He's working as the starting slot receiver so far. I see DX, Allen, Brown, and Floyd all as mostly outside guys.

 

[Tau837]

He's working as the starting slot receiver so far. I see DX, Allen, Brown, and Floyd all as mostly outside guys.

I think DX, Brown, and Floyd will all play mostly in the outside, but I think Allen is more likely to get most of the snaps from the slot. Royal is practicing in the slot so far because Allen hasn't been healthy.People are way too high on Royal year after year.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Yea I don't even think Royal makes it out of camp. He'll get some muscle pull and they will pull the plug on him. He's the only WR they can actually cut and actually get cap savings from.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

People are way too high on Royal year after year.

Very true statement, same can be said about rookies with no experience, to which I would add Brown as well as Allen since Brown doesn't actually have a regular season game under his belt yet. It's funny about that slot receiver spot, I've read several articles (mostly in Faust's training camp thread ) and the news blogger here that put Royal, Allen and even Brown in that spot going into camp.

The two interesting competition I think we all agree are Floyd vs. Brown and Royal vs. Allen in the slot. IMO Allen will eventually take that spot, when is the only question. I am big on Brown, partially because I bought into him last year before he broke his ankle and kept him through the season and therefore have a huge bias towards his success. That and he looked great last year and the reports this year so far looks about the same in minicamps. My guess is the opening game lineup will be DX-Brown-Royal and eventually DX-Brown-Allen. Floyd or Royal will probably not be on the roster before too long.

The only guy who isn't competing for a starting spot is DX, so it's hard not to be excited about his potential. Some of you who have been around these boards may have been on his train before in St. Louis so that may keep some of us including myself from jumping on even after a year like last year. I had him on my bench in that ONE studly game of his career before SD, IIRC he scored two TD's, one for like 80 yards. Then he got hurt again.

Here's a question for you all, if DX goes down again, let's say early in the season or even in camp, who take the deep ball? Floyd?

 

[Tau837]

Here's a question for you all, if DX goes down again, let's say early in the season or even in camp, who take the deep ball? Floyd?

Floyd is the best deep threat on the roster, including Alexander.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Not like it will matter. Deep throws will be seriously curtailed compared to Norv run offenses.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Thread Topic: Keenan Allen, Danario Alexander, Vincent Brown and Malcom Floyd, WRs, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Keenan Allen Player Page

Player Page Link: Danario Alexander Player Page

Player Page Link: Vincent Brown Player Page

Player Page Link: Malcom Floyd Player Page

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Last year the Chargers scored 350 points and finished with a 7-9 record. The Bolts threw for 3,606 yards along with 28 passing TDs. Not bad but the production from the WRs last year was scattered as the RBs were utilized heavily when injuries struck the receiving corps.

Danario Alexander

ht. 6'5, wt. 225 lbs, age 26 years old

REC - 37 YDS - 687 TDs - 7

In his first two years in the league Danario caught 20 and 23 passes respectfully along with a combined 3 TDs. Last year, he only started 7 games where 30 of his 37 catches came in five consecutive games. Danario hit free agency this year and it seemed like a perfect opportunity considering he is a big-tall and relatively young guy but he has had multiple knee surgeries and it seems teams don't see him as a long-term answer so he gathered little interest. The Bolts re-upped him to only a one-year deal so it appears they are not sold on him for the long term but Phil Rivers loves him and probably will utilize him heavily. I think the Bolts front office views him as a bridge until Keenan Allen develops and doesn't want to pay him.

Even though Phil Rivers favors tall WRs and grew accustomed to Alexander and I do think he will begin the season as a starter I think he will eventually give way to Keenan Allen and will not be a starter at the end of the year unless injuries hit. Although I see an up-tick in numbers I just do not feel Danario will be a guy who will hit a big pay day at the end of the 2013 season.

Danario Alexander 2013 projections:

REC - 58 YDS 830 TDs 6

Malcolm Floyd

ht. 6'5 wt. 201 lbs (reports say he's added 5 lbs) age 31 years old

REC - 56 YDS 814 TDs 5

Floyd clicked with Rivers when Phil threw it up deep and the 6-5 Floyd would use his frame to make the deep catch but the offense has changed from Norv Turner's vertcal-stretch to a horizontal game. The new offense doesn't seem as good of a fit for Floyd who ended last year on IR. The new offense appears to be the reason why he added the extra weight to help his physicality to try and gain separation underneath. i don't see Floyd as a guy the Chargers want to highlight in this offense, Vincent Browns was the guy who was making waves last year and was destined for a big year and even though Floyd is currently listed atop the Bolts depth chart ahead of Brown I don't see that lasting long into training camp so I think Malcom will be starting. I think his numbers will take a significant dip.

Malcolm Floyd 2013 projections:

REC - 32 YDS - 420 TDs - 3

Keenan Allen

ht. 6'2 wt. 206 lbs age

Rookie, third round pick, injured but should be ready for camp but may not be 100% at the start of camp, currently listed behind Danario Alexander on the depth chart. I like Allen a lot and feel he the guy the Chargers want starting but it might take some time but I feel he will eventually work his way into the starting job. Harder to project rookies but my best guestimate:

Keenan Allen's 2013 projected numbers:

REC - 40 YDS - 550 TDs - 4

Vincent Brown

ht. 5'11 wt. 190 lbs age 24 years old

I love Brown and feel he is on the verge of a break-out season. He impressed last year and he's doing it again this off-season and is healthy. The new offense seems to fit him. He's not a tall WR like the others but the vibe coming from the Chargers screams Vincent Brown is going to be a star of the receiving corps so I am projecting very high numbers for Brown.

Every once in a while you have to let it all hang out and even though many are skittish on V-Brown based on injuries and having the Lucy-Charlie Brown football snatched away from their high expectations last year I don't think the hype will produce a goose egg this season. I see BIG THINGS for Vincent Brown in 2013.

Vincent Brown 2013 projected numbers:

REC 80 YDS 1,130 YDS 8 TDs

 

[Sabertooth]

Watching one of the post draft interviews and Tje guy confirmed that the team did indeed have a first round grade on Allen fwiw.

 

[Ghost Rider]

The fact that the wr corps is featured as a group and not individual players tells me everything we need to know: avoid.

I think it says that none of the guys are the likely WR1 from the Chargers as of now, but it is more than likely that several of these guys will end up being pretty darn solid, and given that the cost of all of them should not be very high, value is there to be gotten, if you get the right ones. Camp and preseason games should tell us quite a bit.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Owned DX in a few leagues last year and watched a lot of his games since the Chargers were one of the few late games. Not sure if it was because Rivers had no one else to throw to, but man Rivers loved throwing to him last year. He was almost forcing him the ball.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I think DX or Brown is the guy, but they both have had their setbacks. I wouldnt begin to project numbers for either right now, but they appear to me to easily be the most worthwhile SD WRs for 2013.

 

[Beerguzzler]

DX is the clear #1 in SD. He looks fantastic in camp too. As usual though, that knee is going to be a question mark and limit's his upside. It may also be a contributing reason for the team rotating more WR's throughout games, keeping all those guys fresh (every single WR has injury concerns). Make no mistake though, DX is the clear #1 guy in that offense right now and will likely be the most consistent on a weekly basis.

 

[timschochet]

Update? With the injury to DX, is Vincent Brown the late round steal that I think he might be?

 

[Gr00vus]

I said this in some other thread, but I think Brown is a little overhyped on this board. He's got good hands and runs good routes. I haven't seen great top end speed from him and he doesn't get enough separation for my liking. He's also not very big. Maybe it's just a small sample size in terms of plays I've seen, but my eyes tell me possession receiver. I think he'll give you something in PPR leagues, but I don't see a potential WR1 in the making here, probably not even a solid WR2. I don't see him breaking enough big plays or getting enough TDs to make it that high.

Allen still doesn't look quite ready. If you can buy late and stash he might be something later on as he's got good physical attributes.

Floyd might be ready for the opener. Even so, you can't count on the guy to make it through the season, and he'll be on the injury list a lot even when he plays. So if you can figure out when he'll actually be on the field he'll get you some ff points as Rivers has the most experience with him of all the receivers left.

Royal's still having lung problems - I don't think he'd amount to much even if healthy.

Gates seems to be healthy. His speed is gone, but he can still post up and beat single coverage. I expect he's redzone option #2, assuming Matthews rushing is option #1. Good for PPR & TD heavy leagues but I don't see lots of 100+ yard games in his future. I wouldn't expect 16 games from him either - he's definitely injury prone.

The guy I'm most intrigued by in the passing game is TE Laderius Green. He's been pretty electric this preseason. He's pretty much done all his damage against the 2nd and 3rd team defenses though, so I'm wondering if it's been a matchup mirage. Still my eyes tell me he's got good speed, he's tall and he seems to get open. He's not as bulky as you'd want a blocking TE to be, in fact I don't know that I've seen him run block yet - so that might limit his reps in addition to already being behind Gates. But I think he's a great late round high upside target for people in TE leagues. If/when Gates gets hurt he becomes a roster stash in any format as I think he'll have a good chance to capitalize.

Don't forget Woodhead too - he could be a poor man's Sproles in this offense, though I'm pretty sure he's nowhere near as fast or shifty as Sproles, so limit your expectations.

If you believe in such things, the Chargers seem to have a favorable passing/receiving strength of schedule heading into the season. So there will be some FF points to be had throughout the season, but I wouldn't want to have to start any of these guys every week, except perhaps Gates.