Player Spotlight: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Tom Brady Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[pghrob]

Bump

 

[Tanner9919]

threw for 4800+ yards with 443 coming in one game..TDs were down significantly from the year before.
lost Welker. can't rely on Hernandez, Amendola, Gronkowski to be every-week players..they're a M.A.S.H unit at best..
someone else will need to pick up the slack, perhaps a RB..
Brady's comp % if he holds the ball for 3.5 seconds or longer is just 47% ( espn had a story about it on NFL Live). guess what teams are going to be able to do to him now that he's lost his security blanket in Welker...
not saying the sky is falling for NE, but the offense is clearly going to feel the loss of Welker..
4000/28/13 INT...less yards, less TD's, more int's, he'll take more hits - because he'll hold the ball longer as he'll have no one to throw it to..
numbers will be down across the board for Brady,IMO.
seems strange but true: this *could* be the one year where the NE offense goes kaput..( compared to past seasons with their historically prolific offense under Brady)..

 

[meyerj31]

threw for 4800+ yards with 443 coming in one game..TDs were down significantly from the year before.

lost Welker. can't rely on Hernandez, Amendola, Gronkowski to be every-week players..they're a M.A.S.H unit at best..

someone else will need to pick up the slack, perhaps a RB..

Brady's comp % if he holds the ball for 3.5 seconds or longer is just 47% ( espn had a story about it on NFL Live). guess what teams are going to be able to do to him now that he's lost his security blanket in Welker...

not saying the sky is falling for NE, but the offense is clearly going to feel the loss of Welker..

4000/28/13 INT...less yards, less TD's, more int's, he'll take more hits - because he'll hold the ball longer as he'll have no one to throw it to..

numbers will be down across the board for Brady,IMO.

seems strange but true: this *could* be the one year where the NE offense goes kaput..( compared to past seasons with their historically prolific offense under Brady)..

Easy there, chicken little. You have some good points and perhaps NE does regress a little bit, but let's not forget that the QB makes the offense regardless of the supporting cast.

You seem to be forgetting that Brady won three super bowls before Welker ever came to New England.

That's right... Welker was not on any of their super bowl winning teams. I bet you could win a beer with that trivia question.

Brady makes that offense hum, the offensive line is very good, and they have some decent running backs now to keep the defense honest.

4200/34. Lock it up.

 

[CentralPA]

threw for 4800+ yards with 443 coming in one game..TDs were down significantly from the year before.

lost Welker. can't rely on Hernandez, Amendola, Gronkowski to be every-week players..they're a M.A.S.H unit at best..

someone else will need to pick up the slack, perhaps a RB..

Brady's comp % if he holds the ball for 3.5 seconds or longer is just 47% ( espn had a story about it on NFL Live). guess what teams are going to be able to do to him now that he's lost his security blanket in Welker...

not saying the sky is falling for NE, but the offense is clearly going to feel the loss of Welker..

4000/28/13 INT...less yards, less TD's, more int's, he'll take more hits - because he'll hold the ball longer as he'll have no one to throw it to..

numbers will be down across the board for Brady,IMO.

seems strange but true: this *could* be the one year where the NE offense goes kaput..( compared to past seasons with their historically prolific offense under Brady)..

Amendola will take over Welker's role and Brady doesn't miss a step. He'll be fine.

 

[fightingillini]

I wouldn't worry about Brady losing Welker. Amendola should fit in fine in that role (assuming he can stay healthy). With the best TE combo in the NFL, Brady doesn't need name WRs to produce.....he's done it in the past and will do it again. What's great is you can get him a round or so later than in 2012 when you likely needed a 1st round pick to secure him.4400 pass yards, 35 TD75 yds rushing, 1 TD

 

[Shutout]

I actually like the idea that the Patriots spread it around so much (If I am a Brady owner). Its nice not having to rely on any one player. This team has plenty of talented players and just had what I think will be a talented draft of even more talented players.

The coach is still a great coach and the QB is still one of the top QBs to ever play so in a forum where everyone talks so much about the "talent" being the difference maker, I think Brady will be fine.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I think people are right in that Welker won't be missed that much but not because of Amendola or Am-I-injured. I have a good feeling about UFA T.J. Moe.

Check out these combine metrics:

Player A:

Drafted - UFA

BMI - 28.8

3 Cone - 7.09

20 yard shuttle - 4.01

Verticle - 30

Broad - 113 inches

40 yard dash - 4.65

Player B:

Drafted - UFA

BMI - 27.67

3 Cone - 6.53

20 yard shuttle - 3.96

Verticle - 36

Broad - 120 inches

40 yard dash - 4.68

Player A is Welker, Player B is Moe. I know there's a lot more to football than metrics but I like the potential of Moe right now. He's also 2 inches taller than Welker but has that lower body power.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

In 2010, Brady had to deal with:

• The Patriots bidding adieu to Randy Moss who had seemed disgruntled all year up until the time of his release anyway with regard to his contract.
• Wes Welker coming back from an ACL tear that occurred at the end of the previous season.
• The breaking in of two new TE’s in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez
• His #1 RB winding up being a player drafted in the 7th round two seasons prior who coming into the season had 100 career carries.

He won the NFL MVP Award…unanimously.

Perhaps 3 years might be enough to knock Brady off top form. And if we’re calling a spade a spade, 2010 was one of Brady’s least prolific seasons during the stage of his career where he’s been uber-productive. But for my money, Brady is simply a QB you can depend on year in year out still no matter what the surrounding environment looks like.

While some folks are predicting doom and gloom for the Patriots what with Welker leaving, Hernandez being cut due to his being arrested for murder…the Patriots should still have Gronkowski and Amendola for the majority of the 2013 season. Amendola has struggled to stay healthy during his career and Gronk’s own health woes are cause for concern. But there is a distinct possibility that the Patriots offense might not be as short staffed as many are anticipating. Lots of people are predicting a multi-dimensional breakout year for Shane Vereen and from a running game perspective, the Patriots should be in much better shape that they were in back in 2010.

The QB’s who we all consider to be in the top tier elite category are Brady, Peyton, Rodgers and Brees. Those are the four and I think one of the reasons we place them in that category aside from that fact that they’ve each got Championship Bling is that it seems no matter the conditions or the unforeseen circumstances that might present themselves they still find ways to win and be extremely effective. Statistically speaking, we’ll probably look back on Brady’s 2013 retrospectively and say that he didn’t have his best season, but I’d be shocked if the Patriots weren’t very good and in order for them to be very good – Brady has to be at least that and he’s shown that when the chips are down he’ll do what’s necessary to win.

In 2010, it was a significant curtailing of his pass attempts (he finished 11th in that category that season). He also sported a 9:1 TD/INT ratio. In this era where the 4000 yard season feels routine, he missed the mark by 100 yards. Quite frankly, I don’t think anyone can be sure just how the Patriots will find ways to be the Patriots this year. But if anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt, Brady and Belichick deserve that benefit.

Currently, Brady is trending behind Cam Newton and around the same area as Matt Ryan. Newton is a higher risk pick than Ryan just due to his mercurial personality and inability thus far to project a sense of calm and control during difficult times. Ryan seems a safer pick than Newton but has yet to prove if he could produce significantly during adversity (say one of the big three go down with an injury).

Ultimately, Brady remains as safe choice at QB as you can get. With that said, the depth at the QB position is staggering and so I don’t blame owners for not taking the plunge on Brady because you can still get QB1 value a round or two later. But all of the QB’s in that range contain an element of risk as well, yet none have proven themselves to this point as capable of handling non-optimal situations as Brady.

Prediction: 357 Completions, 555 Attempts, 4447 Passing Yards, 32 TD’s 8 INT’s. – 2 Rushing TD’s.

 

[meyerj31]

In 2010, Brady had to deal with:

• The Patriots bidding adieu to Randy Moss who had seemed disgruntled all year up until the time of his release anyway with regard to his contract.
• Wes Welker coming back from an ACL tear that occurred at the end of the previous season.
• The breaking in of two new TE’s in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez
• His #1 RB winding up being a player drafted in the 7th round two seasons prior who coming into the season had 100 career carries.

He won the NFL MVP Award…unanimously.

Perhaps 3 years might be enough to knock Brady off top form. And if we’re calling a spade a spade, 2010 was one of Brady’s least prolific seasons during the stage of his career where he’s been uber-productive. But for my money, Brady is simply a QB you can depend on year in year out still no matter what the surrounding environment looks like.

While some folks are predicting doom and gloom for the Patriots what with Welker leaving, Hernandez being cut due to his being arrested for murder…the Patriots should still have Gronkowski and Amendola for the majority of the 2013 season. Amendola has struggled to stay healthy during his career and Gronk’s own health woes are cause for concern. But there is a distinct possibility that the Patriots offense might not be as short staffed as many are anticipating. Lots of people are predicting a multi-dimensional breakout year for Shane Vereen and from a running game perspective, the Patriots should be in much better shape that they were in back in 2010.

The QB’s who we all consider to be in the top tier elite category are Brady, Peyton, Rodgers and Brees. Those are the four and I think one of the reasons we place them in that category aside from that fact that they’ve each got Championship Bling is that it seems no matter the conditions or the unforeseen circumstances that might present themselves they still find ways to win and be extremely effective. Statistically speaking, we’ll probably look back on Brady’s 2013 retrospectively and say that he didn’t have his best season, but I’d be shocked if the Patriots weren’t very good and in order for them to be very good – Brady has to be at least that and he’s shown that when the chips are down he’ll do what’s necessary to win.

In 2010, it was a significant curtailing of his pass attempts (he finished 11th in that category that season). He also sported a 9:1 TD/INT ratio. In this era where the 4000 yard season feels routine, he missed the mark by 100 yards. Quite frankly, I don’t think anyone can be sure just how the Patriots will find ways to be the Patriots this year. But if anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt, Brady and Belichick deserve that benefit.

Currently, Brady is trending behind Cam Newton and around the same area as Matt Ryan. Newton is a higher risk pick than Ryan just due to his mercurial personality and inability thus far to project a sense of calm and control during difficult times. Ryan seems a safer pick than Newton but has yet to prove if he could produce significantly during adversity (say one of the big three go down with an injury).

Ultimately, Brady remains as safe choice at QB as you can get. With that said, the depth at the QB position is staggering and so I don’t blame owners for not taking the plunge on Brady because you can still get QB1 value a round or two later. But all of the QB’s in that range contain an element of risk as well, yet none have proven themselves to this point as capable of handling non-optimal situations as Brady.

Prediction: 357 Completions, 555 Attempts, 4447 Passing Yards, 32 TD’s 8 INT’s. – 2 Rushing TD’s.

Good post. Way too much doom and gloom about one of the greatest players in the history of the game; whom, by the way, is still at or near the top of his game. QBs make the team hum, and Brady will find a way. WRs in the NFL, like fantasy, are more replaceable than people think. Rodgers could take over the Jags and make Blackmon/Shorts the highest receiving duo in the game. Everything starts with the QB.

 

[karmarooster]

In 2010, Brady had to deal with:

• The Patriots bidding adieu to Randy Moss who had seemed disgruntled all year up until the time of his release anyway with regard to his contract.
• Wes Welker coming back from an ACL tear that occurred at the end of the previous season.
• The breaking in of two new TE’s in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez
• His #1 RB winding up being a player drafted in the 7th round two seasons prior who coming into the season had 100 career carries.

He won the NFL MVP Award…unanimously.

Perhaps 3 years might be enough to knock Brady off top form. And if we’re calling a spade a spade, 2010 was one of Brady’s least prolific seasons during the stage of his career where he’s been uber-productive. But for my money, Brady is simply a QB you can depend on year in year out still no matter what the surrounding environment looks like.

While some folks are predicting doom and gloom for the Patriots what with Welker leaving, Hernandez being cut due to his being arrested for murder…the Patriots should still have Gronkowski and Amendola for the majority of the 2013 season. Amendola has struggled to stay healthy during his career and Gronk’s own health woes are cause for concern. But there is a distinct possibility that the Patriots offense might not be as short staffed as many are anticipating. Lots of people are predicting a multi-dimensional breakout year for Shane Vereen and from a running game perspective, the Patriots should be in much better shape that they were in back in 2010.

The QB’s who we all consider to be in the top tier elite category are Brady, Peyton, Rodgers and Brees. Those are the four and I think one of the reasons we place them in that category aside from that fact that they’ve each got Championship Bling is that it seems no matter the conditions or the unforeseen circumstances that might present themselves they still find ways to win and be extremely effective. Statistically speaking, we’ll probably look back on Brady’s 2013 retrospectively and say that he didn’t have his best season, but I’d be shocked if the Patriots weren’t very good and in order for them to be very good – Brady has to be at least that and he’s shown that when the chips are down he’ll do what’s necessary to win.

In 2010, it was a significant curtailing of his pass attempts (he finished 11th in that category that season). He also sported a 9:1 TD/INT ratio. In this era where the 4000 yard season feels routine, he missed the mark by 100 yards. Quite frankly, I don’t think anyone can be sure just how the Patriots will find ways to be the Patriots this year. But if anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt, Brady and Belichick deserve that benefit.

Currently, Brady is trending behind Cam Newton and around the same area as Matt Ryan. Newton is a higher risk pick than Ryan just due to his mercurial personality and inability thus far to project a sense of calm and control during difficult times. Ryan seems a safer pick than Newton but has yet to prove if he could produce significantly during adversity (say one of the big three go down with an injury).

Ultimately, Brady remains as safe choice at QB as you can get. With that said, the depth at the QB position is staggering and so I don’t blame owners for not taking the plunge on Brady because you can still get QB1 value a round or two later. But all of the QB’s in that range contain an element of risk as well, yet none have proven themselves to this point as capable of handling non-optimal situations as Brady.

Prediction: 357 Completions, 555 Attempts, 4447 Passing Yards, 32 TD’s 8 INT’s. – 2 Rushing TD’s.

Good post. Way too much doom and gloom about one of the greatest players in the history of the game; whom, by the way, is still at or near the top of his game. QBs make the team hum, and Brady will find a way. WRs in the NFL, like fantasy, are more replaceable than people think. Rodgers could take over the Jags and make Blackmon/Shorts the highest receiving duo in the game. Everything starts with the QB.

I find this sort of logic confusing:

"2010 is the most comparable year for Brady; he had a disgruntled Moss and a returning from ACL Welker. This year he has equally bad receiving options (possibly worse). Therefore this year, he'll have ~500 more passing yards than he did in 2010." The logic is basically that it seems implausible he would surpass 2010, but somehow he should... somehow. Because he's Tom Brady. This is circular and self-defeating logic.

2013 is the worst receiving corps he's had since Reche Caldwell in 2006 (yes even worse than half of Moss + half of Welker + rookie TEs in 2010). I can accept the argument that the rules of the NFL have changed to an extent since 2006 that his stats from that year are probably too low (3,500 yards and 24 TDs). But I don't see a reason to go much higher than 4,000, if at all. 3,900 was the applicable benchmark of 2010, and Danny Amendola and Jake Ballard are not enough to surpass that benchmark.

Also, you say "His #1 RB winding up being a player drafted in the 7th round two seasons prior who coming into the season had 100 career carries." This is poo-pooing on 2010 BJGE and Maroney, right? Wouldn't you agree that Ridley, Bolden, Vereen, and Blount are a better RB corps than he had in 2010? So wouldn't it stand to reason they would lean MORE on the run this year than the did in 2010? So wouldn't it stand that his passing stats for 2013 are more likely to be LESS than his stats in 2010?

Finally, you don't get fantasy points for being the NFL MVP. I'd say Brady has a better chance this year to be the actual NFL MVP than the Fantasy QB1 or 2 at the end of the season. If he goes 13-3 and 'game manges' the Pats to something like the best record, but throws ~4,000 yards and 30TDs, there's a reasonable chance he'd win the MVP, but he ain't gonna win you any fantasy leagues with those stats.

I'd argree with your characterization of him as "safe" - I believe he has a high floor, but a low ceiling due to the lack of WR weapons and the plethora of RB weapons. Probably something like 3,800 - 4,200 yards.

But being "safe" is not a reason to select him as an elite QB. You have to consider him in context - when there are options like Cam, Ryan, and Stafford to choose around him. They each have several things to offer that he does not - (1) elite WRs in Megatron and Julio, (2) Domes in Detroit and Atlanta, (3) Cam's running ability. Cam could easily throw for roughly the same yardage as brady (~4,000) AND run for another 500-750 yards and 10+ rushing TDs.

Who's going to throw more, Ryan/Stafford or Brady? Who has elite, once in a generation WR talent? Who's going to run more, Cam or Brady? The answers to those questions solve the riddle of Brady. Basically there isn't any reason for him to surpass 2010 other than "He's Tom Brady."

 

[Ghost Rider]

Finally, you don't get fantasy points for being the NFL MVP. I'd say Brady has a better chance this year to be the actual NFL MVP than the Fantasy QB1 or 2 at the end of the season. If he goes 13-3 and 'game manges' the Pats to something like the best record, but throws ~4,000 yards and 30TDs, there's a reasonable chance he'd win the MVP, but he ain't gonna win you any fantasy leagues with those stats.

The first part is true, but regarding that last part, he can most certainly help you win a fantasy league if he throws for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs. Besides, I get the feeling that Brady's value is not gonna be very high in auctions this year, relatively speaking, especially since QBs are deep this year, so if you can get him for a great value with still amassing a great team around him, you can definitely win.

To reiterate what I have said in other threads, no, I do not think his numbers will be as great this year as in years past, but they should still be pretty damn good, and I think he will end up being a good value pick in some leagues.

 

[karmarooster]

Finally, you don't get fantasy points for being the NFL MVP. I'd say Brady has a better chance this year to be the actual NFL MVP than the Fantasy QB1 or 2 at the end of the season. If he goes 13-3 and 'game manges' the Pats to something like the best record, but throws ~4,000 yards and 30TDs, there's a reasonable chance he'd win the MVP, but he ain't gonna win you any fantasy leagues with those stats.

The first part is true, but regarding that last part, he can most certainly help you win a fantasy league if he throws for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs. Besides, I get the feeling that Brady's value is not gonna be very high in auctions this year, relatively speaking, especially since QBs are deep this year, so if you can get him for a great value with still amassing a great team around him, you can definitely win.

To reiterate what I have said in other threads, no, I do not think his numbers will be as great this year as in years past, but they should still be pretty damn good, and I think he will end up being a good value pick in some leagues.

I should've been more clear - he's not going to single-handedly win you a league with 4,000/30 the way Brees throwing for 5,400 yards or Cam/RG3 running for 850+ yards and 10 TDs can. Brady can be a reliable player at those stats. But I need more of a reason to take him as an elite QB than 'reliability' when there are other options in the same ADP range with WAY higher upside (Cam, Ryan, Stafford).

You may have a point regarding his value falling. If in auctions or real drafts he slips PAST Cam, Ryan, and Stafford, such that 6 QBs are off the board or whatever the equivalent is in auction-land, yeah he becomes a consideration. But the premise I was contesting is basically that he is just outside of the top 3 guys in Rodgers, Brees, and Manning, who all have SO much more offensive talent around them. If I'm taking a top 5 QB, whether in a draft or auction, I'm looking for elite upside not just pretty good.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

In 2010, Brady had to deal with:

• The Patriots bidding adieu to Randy Moss who had seemed disgruntled all year up until the time of his release anyway with regard to his contract.
• Wes Welker coming back from an ACL tear that occurred at the end of the previous season.
• The breaking in of two new TE’s in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez
• His #1 RB winding up being a player drafted in the 7th round two seasons prior who coming into the season had 100 career carries.

He won the NFL MVP Award…unanimously.

Perhaps 3 years might be enough to knock Brady off top form. And if we’re calling a spade a spade, 2010 was one of Brady’s least prolific seasons during the stage of his career where he’s been uber-productive. But for my money, Brady is simply a QB you can depend on year in year out still no matter what the surrounding environment looks like.

While some folks are predicting doom and gloom for the Patriots what with Welker leaving, Hernandez being cut due to his being arrested for murder…the Patriots should still have Gronkowski and Amendola for the majority of the 2013 season. Amendola has struggled to stay healthy during his career and Gronk’s own health woes are cause for concern. But there is a distinct possibility that the Patriots offense might not be as short staffed as many are anticipating. Lots of people are predicting a multi-dimensional breakout year for Shane Vereen and from a running game perspective, the Patriots should be in much better shape that they were in back in 2010.

The QB’s who we all consider to be in the top tier elite category are Brady, Peyton, Rodgers and Brees. Those are the four and I think one of the reasons we place them in that category aside from that fact that they’ve each got Championship Bling is that it seems no matter the conditions or the unforeseen circumstances that might present themselves they still find ways to win and be extremely effective. Statistically speaking, we’ll probably look back on Brady’s 2013 retrospectively and say that he didn’t have his best season, but I’d be shocked if the Patriots weren’t very good and in order for them to be very good – Brady has to be at least that and he’s shown that when the chips are down he’ll do what’s necessary to win.

In 2010, it was a significant curtailing of his pass attempts (he finished 11th in that category that season). He also sported a 9:1 TD/INT ratio. In this era where the 4000 yard season feels routine, he missed the mark by 100 yards. Quite frankly, I don’t think anyone can be sure just how the Patriots will find ways to be the Patriots this year. But if anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt, Brady and Belichick deserve that benefit.

Currently, Brady is trending behind Cam Newton and around the same area as Matt Ryan. Newton is a higher risk pick than Ryan just due to his mercurial personality and inability thus far to project a sense of calm and control during difficult times. Ryan seems a safer pick than Newton but has yet to prove if he could produce significantly during adversity (say one of the big three go down with an injury).

Ultimately, Brady remains as safe choice at QB as you can get. With that said, the depth at the QB position is staggering and so I don’t blame owners for not taking the plunge on Brady because you can still get QB1 value a round or two later. But all of the QB’s in that range contain an element of risk as well, yet none have proven themselves to this point as capable of handling non-optimal situations as Brady.

Prediction: 357 Completions, 555 Attempts, 4447 Passing Yards, 32 TD’s 8 INT’s. – 2 Rushing TD’s.

Good post. Way too much doom and gloom about one of the greatest players in the history of the game; whom, by the way, is still at or near the top of his game. QBs make the team hum, and Brady will find a way. WRs in the NFL, like fantasy, are more replaceable than people think. Rodgers could take over the Jags and make Blackmon/Shorts the highest receiving duo in the game. Everything starts with the QB.

I find this sort of logic confusing:

"2010 is the most comparable year for Brady; he had a disgruntled Moss and a returning from ACL Welker. This year he has equally bad receiving options (possibly worse). Therefore this year, he'll have ~500 more passing yards than he did in 2010." The logic is basically that it seems implausible he would surpass 2010, but somehow he should... somehow. Because he's Tom Brady. This is circular and self-defeating logic.

2013 is the worst receiving corps he's had since Reche Caldwell in 2006 (yes even worse than half of Moss + half of Welker + rookie TEs in 2010). I can accept the argument that the rules of the NFL have changed to an extent since 2006 that his stats from that year are probably too low (3,500 yards and 24 TDs). But I don't see a reason to go much higher than 4,000, if at all. 3,900 was the applicable benchmark of 2010, and Danny Amendola and Jake Ballard are not enough to surpass that benchmark.

Also, you say "His #1 RB winding up being a player drafted in the 7th round two seasons prior who coming into the season had 100 career carries." This is poo-pooing on 2010 BJGE and Maroney, right? Wouldn't you agree that Ridley, Bolden, Vereen, and Blount are a better RB corps than he had in 2010? So wouldn't it stand to reason they would lean MORE on the run this year than the did in 2010? So wouldn't it stand that his passing stats for 2013 are more likely to be LESS than his stats in 2010?

Finally, you don't get fantasy points for being the NFL MVP. I'd say Brady has a better chance this year to be the actual NFL MVP than the Fantasy QB1 or 2 at the end of the season. If he goes 13-3 and 'game manges' the Pats to something like the best record, but throws ~4,000 yards and 30TDs, there's a reasonable chance he'd win the MVP, but he ain't gonna win you any fantasy leagues with those stats.

I'd argree with your characterization of him as "safe" - I believe he has a high floor, but a low ceiling due to the lack of WR weapons and the plethora of RB weapons. Probably something like 3,800 - 4,200 yards.

But being "safe" is not a reason to select him as an elite QB. You have to consider him in context - when there are options like Cam, Ryan, and Stafford to choose around him. They each have several things to offer that he does not - (1) elite WRs in Megatron and Julio, (2) Domes in Detroit and Atlanta, (3) Cam's running ability. Cam could easily throw for roughly the same yardage as brady (~4,000) AND run for another 500-750 yards and 10+ rushing TDs.

Who's going to throw more, Ryan/Stafford or Brady? Who has elite, once in a generation WR talent? Who's going to run more, Cam or Brady? The answers to those questions solve the riddle of Brady. Basically there isn't any reason for him to surpass 2010 other than "He's Tom Brady."

Allow me to correct some perceptions with regard to my post and outlook for Brady.

As it relates to the notion of Brady and his status as an elite QB, while I think it applies to FF as well, I was speaking there more in terms of his standing as an all-timer first ballot HOF'er. And I think a major reason why he is in that category is his resilience and ability to, for lack of a better term...find a way to perform at elite levels, defined by measures greater than stats, but to a certain extent inclusive of them.

Understanding you don't get points for winning the MVP Award, in order to actually win the MVP Award you do have to produce. Was Brady's production in 2010 along the lines of some of his most statistically jaw dropping seasons (2007 & 2011 come to mind)? No...but they were remarkable in the sense of how well he was able to produce given the circumstances he had to deal with. While many are lamenting the pass catchig situation in NE, some of it is a bit overblown. Gronkowski is not in danger of missing extended time during the season. He's in a race to be ready by Opening Day, but late September/early October isn't even feared. Is Danny Amendola as good as Wes Welker? No, but he's a reasonable facsimile. It appeared as if the Patriots uncovered a multi-dimensional weapon in Shane Vereen that could do damage in the passing game in new and innovative ways. And despite being a raw prospect, I would anticipate Aaron Dobson making some level of contribution. The loss of Hernandez hurts, but it far from cripples the Patriots and Brady.

Also, even though it represents but three seasons...enough has changed in the NFL from a reliance on the passing game attack perspective where 492 pass attempts would have ranked 18th in the NFL in 2012 (versus 11th in 2010). Simply put, I doubt highly Belichick strays too much from Brady just because some weapons he's had previously aren't available. Fact of the matter is that Belichick would allow Brady to circumsize his kid...his 18 year old kid. I don't suspect he'll simply put the offense in the hands of Ridley/Vereen.

One last critical difference to recognize is that in 2010, the Patriots ran 986 plays from scrimmage. Last year, they ran 1191. Incorporating Chip Kelly concepts in his offense, the Patriots at times were relentless in terms of pace of play. They could slow it up, speed it up as they wished, but more importantly, they largely dictated the pace of play. Bottomline: While I don't believe the Patriots will equal their 2012 plays from scrimmage total, I think it will be closer to their 2012 levels versus 2010.

At 555 attempts, I'm still predicting an 11% drop in terms of pass attempts from his 2011-2012 average and an 8 YPA figure isn't one that is out of the question for someone like Brady.

 

[karmarooster]

Hey that's a pretty nice response. Thanks for following up with some further information.

In my ho-hum assessment of Brady, I am assuming that Gronk will miss the first 6 games via the PUP list, or if he isn't placed on the PUP for regular season, he'll miss a substantial portion of those 6 games (3-6). You are right to point out that Hernandez won't completely shatter the offense, but when considered with the loss of Lloyd, Welker, and Gronk for 3-6 games, I think it's pretty substantial.

Also, to address your point about the Pats high-speed Oregon offense, the only reason they were able to run such a blistering pace last year was because of their 2-TE set. They put on Hern+Gronk and see what the defense responds with, and then go high speed to trap the defense in that formation. Without the same 2-TE formation for the entire year, and without Gronk for roughly 1/4-1/3 of the fantasy football season, they won't have that option. They can still try to run a reasonably fast paced offense, but not the hyper-speed offense that had them near the top of the league in both rushes and passes last year. So I think it's smart to drop the number of offensive plays down from 1191 to a more reasonable 1,000-1,075 (only 10 teams ran more than 1,000 offensive plays last year).

Second, Brady's YPA attempt last year was 7.6 YPA, and I see no reason for that to go UP. That's with Gronkowski, who had about a 14 YPC over the last two years, a pretty good deep threat. Lloyd had a 12 YPC last year. Not really a super deep threat but a better deep option than anything they have this year. Amendola, on the other hand, was 10 YPC last year, more in line with Welker. So in short, I don't think it's reasonable to expect Brady to improve on his YPA this year, unless it happens through the heavier use of play-action if the offense is built around the ground game. But this would have to be at the further expense of the number of passing attempts.

Numbers:

1,060 offensive plays (roughly 6th in the league last year), 48% run vs. 52% pass (compared to 45/55 last year). Puts me somewhere around 550 attempts. Then drop his 7.6 YPA to 7.5 and it spits out 4,125 yards. I may have been overly conservative when calling his ceiling/floor 3,800 to 4,200 -- it's probably closer to 4,000 to 4,300.

I still remain unconvinced that he's a better option than Ryan and Stafford, who will throw the ball 600+ and 700+ times, to Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones, in domes, mind you. Their floor is Brady's ceiling, assuming all play 16 games with 16 games from healthy freak WRs.

 

[silentcoach]

It is tough to predict his exact stats because he lost a lot of his offense.

If I had to guess, looking at the past years, 550 attempts for 4125 yds and 33 tds seems like a good number to work with.

While I can get on board with Amendola, Brady will need to find another RZ target. His numbers will go up if he can find a consistent wr/te that gets in the end zone.

 

[SWC]

i am saying down year probably 3500 yards 25 tds and a n increase in ints because his receivers are new and will not have a super mega connection with him like welker and the murderer and grank did even though gronk will come back after a quarter of the season is done take that to the bank brohans

 

[Anarchy99]

i am saying down year probably 3500 yards 25 tds and a n increase in ints because his receivers are new and will not have a super mega connection with him like welker and the murderer and grank did even though gronk will come back after a quarter of the season is done take that to the bank brohans

That line would effectively be the worst season Brady has ever had since becoming a full time starter.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Hey that's a pretty nice response. Thanks for following up with some further information.

In my ho-hum assessment of Brady, I am assuming that Gronk will miss the first 6 games via the PUP list, or if he isn't placed on the PUP for regular season, he'll miss a substantial portion of those 6 games (3-6). You are right to point out that Hernandez won't completely shatter the offense, but when considered with the loss of Lloyd, Welker, and Gronk for 3-6 games, I think it's pretty substantial.

Also, to address your point about the Pats high-speed Oregon offense, the only reason they were able to run such a blistering pace last year was because of their 2-TE set. They put on Hern+Gronk and see what the defense responds with, and then go high speed to trap the defense in that formation. Without the same 2-TE formation for the entire year, and without Gronk for roughly 1/4-1/3 of the fantasy football season, they won't have that option. They can still try to run a reasonably fast paced offense, but not the hyper-speed offense that had them near the top of the league in both rushes and passes last year. So I think it's smart to drop the number of offensive plays down from 1191 to a more reasonable 1,000-1,075 (only 10 teams ran more than 1,000 offensive plays last year).

Second, Brady's YPA attempt last year was 7.6 YPA, and I see no reason for that to go UP. That's with Gronkowski, who had about a 14 YPC over the last two years, a pretty good deep threat. Lloyd had a 12 YPC last year. Not really a super deep threat but a better deep option than anything they have this year. Amendola, on the other hand, was 10 YPC last year, more in line with Welker. So in short, I don't think it's reasonable to expect Brady to improve on his YPA this year, unless it happens through the heavier use of play-action if the offense is built around the ground game. But this would have to be at the further expense of the number of passing attempts.

Numbers:

1,060 offensive plays (roughly 6th in the league last year), 48% run vs. 52% pass (compared to 45/55 last year). Puts me somewhere around 550 attempts. Then drop his 7.6 YPA to 7.5 and it spits out 4,125 yards. I may have been overly conservative when calling his ceiling/floor 3,800 to 4,200 -- it's probably closer to 4,000 to 4,300.

I still remain unconvinced that he's a better option than Ryan and Stafford, who will throw the ball 600+ and 700+ times, to Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones, in domes, mind you. Their floor is Brady's ceiling, assuming all play 16 games with 16 games from healthy freak WRs.

I think Gronk being put on the PUP is unrealistic. Most reports have folks being optimistic about his being able to play Week 1, but even if he's not...I wouldn't see the Patriots eliminating the possibility of the seasons first 6 games before one was played. Can a pessimistic view be taken...sure, but I don't think missing the seasons first 6 games is on the table unless something changes.

You mention Amendola's YPR, but I think you have to take into account he was catching passes from Sam Bradford in a non-Brady/Belichick led offense. I do think that matters and while I don't expect Amendola to be a downfield threat, signing him means Brady's completion rate shouldn't suffer which should help his YPA. As for the difference between 7.5 and 8.0, I think that's a small enough difference over 555 attempts (277 yards) to not quibble over. You could wind up being right. So could I, but it's not a sizable difference to entrench my stance on - it can be made up with a couple of more TD's. As for the running game, it's solid...deep as the Patriots have had. For me, that helps the chance for Brady's YPA to go up. if the run pass ratio declines like you think it will, teams will have to start devoting more attention to that aspect of the Pats offense...if there is any QB who can take advantage of that, it's Brady.

My overall point on Brady is this: From a safe perspective, I don't see any way he doesn't produce. Does he produce his best season? Probably not, but I feel comfortable knowing he'll finish no worse than QB7-8. I don't think there's any circumstance that can derail him with the exception of his own injury. While Ryan/Stafford might wind up having better years...there are external factors I think that could still derail their seasons (Roddy/Julio/Megatron go down...?). You might come back with 'you can't predict injury', which I would agree with. Football is very unpredictable and as such, some of the craziest things can pop-up and derail a season. With Brady, he simply finds a way and so in a sea of unpredictability...Brady is one of very few guys you can set your watch by.

 

[pizzatyme]

Great posts on both sides in this thread. Well done!

 

[Anarchy99]

I think a lot of the roster moves, while certainly a concern, are getting a little overblown. While there have been several players that ended up on NE that ended up as swings and misses, there were also some key players that stepped in and contributed right away . . .

2001 - David Patten

In his first season in NE with Brady filling in for Bledsoe, Patten put up 51-749-4.

2002 - Deion Branch

Put up 37-408-2 in his first 6 games of his rookie season. Did not play as much and injured over the latter part of the season.

2006 - Reche Caldwell

Never a great player before, during, or after his time in NE, Caldwell managed a 61-760-4 season in his only year with the Pats.

2007 - Randy Moss

Thought by many to be washed up, the Brady and Moss connection put up 98-1493-23 in Year One in NE.

2007 - Wes Welker

Little known Welker became Brady's binky to the tune of 112-1175-8 straight out of the gate.

2007 - Donte Stallworth

Stallworth put up 46-697-3 as the third receiving option in his only full year with the Pats.

2007 - Jabar Gaffney

Gaffney was added late in the season the year before but managed 36-449-5 as the 4th receiver in his first full season.

2010 - Aaron Hernandez & Rob Gronkowski

After essentially avoiding the TE position in the passing game for almost 10 years, NE drafted two TEs that put up a combined 87-1109-16.

2011 - Danny Woodhead

Woodhead was added off the waiver wire early in the season and put up 926/6 of total offense his first year, essentially taking over for Kevin Faulk.

2012 - Brandon Lloyd

Lloyd didn't do great but still did decent, adding 74-911-4 to the mix in h is lone season in NE.

So the question becomes, of the current options on the Patriots roster, who might be able to produce most similarly.

Vereen is certainly capable (and not new to the system) of putting up Woodhead or Faulk like numbers.

Amendola may be able to produce similarly to Welker in his first season.

One of Boyce or Dobson may be able to "get it" like Branch did as a rookie.

While on the surface it does not appear that either Jones or Jenkins is going to be a big contributor, one of them may put up numbers similar to Gaffney's.

Edelman (another player that already knows the system) may be able to put up what the Stallworths, Pattens, and Lloyds of the world produced if he can stay healthy.

And for all the hype that Hernandez is not replaceable, he only put up 51-483-5 last year on a team that produced 557 points and 6,846 yards from scrimmage.

Certainly a strong case could be made that the new blood in 2013 is not as strong as the new players from 2007 (and maybe even some of the other years too), but I think Brady made his receivers more than the receivers ever made Brady.

 

[silentcoach]

I think a lot of the roster moves, while certainly a concern, are getting a little overblown. While there have been several players that ended up on NE that ended up as swings and misses, there were also some key players that stepped in and contributed right away . . .

2001 - David Patten

In his first season in NE with Brady filling in for Bledsoe, Patten put up 51-749-4.

2002 - Deion Branch

Put up 37-408-2 in his first 6 games of his rookie season. Did not play as much and injured over the latter part of the season.

2006 - Reche Caldwell

Never a great player before, during, or after his time in NE, Caldwell managed a 61-760-4 season in his only year with the Pats.

2007 - Randy Moss

Thought by many to be washed up, the Brady and Moss connection put up 98-1493-23 in Year One in NE.

2007 - Wes Welker

Little known Welker became Brady's binky to the tune of 112-1175-8 straight out of the gate.

2007 - Donte Stallworth

Stallworth put up 46-697-3 as the third receiving option in his only full year with the Pats.

2007 - Jabar Gaffney

Gaffney was added late in the season the year before but managed 36-449-5 as the 4th receiver in his first full season.

2010 - Aaron Hernandez & Rob Gronkowski

After essentially avoiding the TE position in the passing game for almost 10 years, NE drafted two TEs that put up a combined 87-1109-16.

2011 - Danny Woodhead

Woodhead was added off the waiver wire early in the season and put up 926/6 of total offense his first year, essentially taking over for Kevin Faulk.

2012 - Brandon Lloyd

Lloyd didn't do great but still did decent, adding 74-911-4 to the mix in h is lone season in NE.

So the question becomes, of the current options on the Patriots roster, who might be able to produce most similarly.

Vereen is certainly capable (and not new to the system) of putting up Woodhead or Faulk like numbers.

Amendola may be able to produce similarly to Welker in his first season.

One of Boyce or Dobson may be able to "get it" like Branch did as a rookie.

While on the surface it does not appear that either Jones or Jenkins is going to be a big contributor, one of them may put up numbers similar to Gaffney's.

Edelman (another player that already knows the system) may be able to put up what the Stallworths, Pattens, and Lloyds of the world produced if he can stay healthy.

And for all the hype that Hernandez is not replaceable, he only put up 51-483-5 last year on a team that produced 557 points and 6,846 yards from scrimmage.

Certainly a strong case could be made that the new blood in 2013 is not as strong as the new players from 2007 (and maybe even some of the other years too), but I think Brady made his receivers more than the receivers ever made Brady.

Yep. I have no worries that ONE person can step up. The problem is if he cannot get another, a red zone guy, to step up. Of course, this is all moot if Gronkowski plays week 1.

Let's look at players with 6 tds or more

In 2006 - 24 tds and NO ONE had 6 tds or more

In 2007 - 50 tds and had Welker, Moss, and Watson

in 2008 - injured.

In 2009 - 28 td and had only Moss

In 2010 - 36 tds. Had Welker, Hernandez, and Gronkowski

In 2011 - 39 tds. Had Welker, Hernandez, and Gronkowski

In 2012 - 34 tds. Had Welker and Gronkowski

So, not only does Brady need 1 guy to step up, according to the stats he needs at least TWO to step up (6 tds or more) to reach over 30 tds. In the two years where he did not have TWO people step up, he had 24 tds and 28 tds.

Again, moot if Gronkowski is healthy and plays because then you just need 1 more player.

However, there is a different tune if Gronkowski cannot play.

On the flip side, if you think Brady will get over 30tds, identify who that second guy is because he will be undervalued....and DRAFT him .

 

[twistd]

One thing I looked at is what were Brady's stats over the course of his career, as a full time starter, and who were his starting skill position players:

2002 3764 yards 28 TDs 303 fantasy points-Antowain Smith, Marc Edwards, David Patten, Troy Brown, Christian Fauria

2003 3620 yards 23 TDs 273 fantasy points-Kevin Faulk, Deion Branch, Troy Brown, Christian Fauria, Daniel Graham

2004 3692 Yards 28 TDs 285 fantasy points-Corey Dillon, Deion Branch, David Givens, David Patten, Daniel Graham

2005 4110 yards 26 TDs 310 fantasy points-Corey Dillon, Deion Branch, David Givens, Christian Fauria, Ben Watson

2006 3529 yards 24 TDs 270 fantasy points-Corey Dillon, Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell, Daniel Graham, Ben Watson

2007 4806 yards 50 TDs 454 fantasy points-Kevin Faulk, Randy Moss, Dante Stallworth, Wes Welker, Kyle Brady

2008 injury season

2009 4398 yards 28 TDs 329 fantasy points-Kevin Faulk, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson

2010 3900 yards 36 TDs 344 fantasy points-BGE, Brandon Tate, Wes Welker, Alge Crumpler, Gronk

2011 5235 yards 39 TDs 434 fantasy points-BGE, Deion Branch, Wes Welker, Gronk, Hernandez

2012 4827 yards 34 TDs 396 fantasy points-Ridley, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, Hernandez

My point here is that Brady has been productive with what you might call a much less than stellar cast of skill position players. He put up over 300 points in 2002 with Antowain Smith, Marc Edwards, David Patten, Troy Brown, and Christian Fauria. He did it again in 2005 with Corey Dillon, Deion Branch, David Givens, Christian Fauria, and Ben Watson. So this year he should have a good RB core that should help him, particularly Vereen as a pass catcher. Amendola is a bit of a wild card because of his injury history, but if he can stay healthy, he could be an adequate replacement for Welker. Gronk may be back early in the season. And his group of receivers can't be much worse than what he has had in the past. If you look at the guys he played with in 2010, BGE, Brandon Tate, Wes Welker, Alge Crumpler, and Gronk. And compare them with his current roster, Ridley is better than BGE. Faulk was the pass catching back, and I think Vereen is better than him. Amendola should at least be something close to Welker. I don't know who the other receiver will be this season, but Brandon Tate and Randy Moss were not doing much at that point in 2010. Brady should have Gronk for some portion of the year, and Ballard is probably better than Crumpler was at that stage of his career. Brady is largely being downgraded in fantasy circles because of his perceived weak skill players. I think that is being somewhat overblown.

Now, that said, the thing working against Brady is the depth at QB, and the number of QBs that supplement their passing stats with rushing numbers. With guys like RGIII, Newton, Kaepernick, and Wilson, putting up such good numbers from running, Brady isn't quite as valuable. But in mock drafts I have seen Brady drop to the sixth or seventh round. At that point I think he certainly becomes a value. All the running QBs are much more of an injury risk. A lot of people are cool on Brady this year. I think if this continues, and he falls further and further in the ADP, he might very well become a bargain.

 

[meyerj31]

Good post.

What int

One thing I looked at is what were Brady's stats over the course of his career, as a full time starter, and who were his starting skill position players:

2002 3764 yards 28 TDs 303 fantasy points-Antowain Smith, Marc Edwards, David Patten, Troy Brown, Christian Fauria

2003 3620 yards 23 TDs 273 fantasy points-Kevin Faulk, Deion Branch, Troy Brown, Christian Fauria, Daniel Graham

2004 3692 Yards 28 TDs 285 fantasy points-Corey Dillon, Deion Branch, David Givens, David Patten, Daniel Graham

2005 4110 yards 26 TDs 310 fantasy points-Corey Dillon, Deion Branch, David Givens, Christian Fauria, Ben Watson

2006 3529 yards 24 TDs 270 fantasy points-Corey Dillon, Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell, Daniel Graham, Ben Watson

2007 4806 yards 50 TDs 454 fantasy points-Kevin Faulk, Randy Moss, Dante Stallworth, Wes Welker, Kyle Brady

2008 injury season

2009 4398 yards 28 TDs 329 fantasy points-Kevin Faulk, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson

2010 3900 yards 36 TDs 344 fantasy points-BGE, Brandon Tate, Wes Welker, Alge Crumpler, Gronk

2011 5235 yards 39 TDs 434 fantasy points-BGE, Deion Branch, Wes Welker, Gronk, Hernandez

2012 4827 yards 34 TDs 396 fantasy points-Ridley, Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, Hernandez

My point here is that Brady has been productive with what you might call a much less than stellar cast of skill position players. He put up over 300 points in 2002 with Antowain Smith, Marc Edwards, David Patten, Troy Brown, and Christian Fauria. He did it again in 2005 with Corey Dillon, Deion Branch, David Givens, Christian Fauria, and Ben Watson. So this year he should have a good RB core that should help him, particularly Vereen as a pass catcher. Amendola is a bit of a wild card because of his injury history, but if he can stay healthy, he could be an adequate replacement for Welker. Gronk may be back early in the season. And his group of receivers can't be much worse than what he has had in the past. If you look at the guys he played with in 2010, BGE, Brandon Tate, Wes Welker, Alge Crumpler, and Gronk. And compare them with his current roster, Ridley is better than BGE. Faulk was the pass catching back, and I think Vereen is better than him. Amendola should at least be something close to Welker. I don't know who the other receiver will be this season, but Brandon Tate and Randy Moss were not doing much at that point in 2010. Brady should have Gronk for some portion of the year, and Ballard is probably better than Crumpler was at that stage of his career. Brady is largely being downgraded in fantasy circles because of his perceived weak skill players. I think that is being somewhat overblown.

Now, that said, the thing working against Brady is the depth at QB, and the number of QBs that supplement their passing stats with rushing numbers. With guys like RGIII, Newton, Kaepernick, and Wilson, putting up such good numbers from running, Brady isn't quite as valuable. But in mock drafts I have seen Brady drop to the sixth or seventh round. At that point I think he certainly becomes a value. All the running QBs are much more of an injury risk. A lot of people are cool on Brady this year. I think if this continues, and he falls further and further in the ADP, he might very well become a bargain.

Good Post...

What intrigues me is how far he falls in 6 TD leagues. In 4 TD passing leagues I'm not bothering with him when there are a plethora of other high scoring options, but there are few guys that score as many as he does in 6 TD passing leagues. It makes a pretty big difference; 5-6 points per game adds up pretty quickly.