Player Spotlight: Vincent Jackson (1 Viewer)

[KING]

Davis was drafted to compete with Parker. Although the Bolts brass love Parker, he provides zero threat downfield so he becomes a huge liability when he drops balls (as he did in the NE game).

The Bolts desperately needed a burner on the outside to keep the safeties honest; Gates and VJax are as big and physical of a 1-2 receiver tandem as there is in the NFL. Opposing defenses were able to cheat up against those two b/c Parker didn't scare anyone deep. Davis is supposed to change that and the thinking is that both Gates and VJax will benefit from his presence even when he's not catching balls.

The biggest obstacle I see in VJax putting up Top 10 WR #'s is Philip Rivers. Rivers is right there with Drew Brees (just behind Manning and Brady) in terms of reading coverages correctly and throwing to the right receiver as dictated by the defensive alignment. Basically, he always takes what the defense gives him, and rarely locks onto and forces the ball to a receiver. When he does, AGates is his man.

I expect a lot more game like the last 4 weeks of the regular season from VJax. 60+ catches, ~ 1000 yrds, and 7-9 TDs.

oh brother, i guess it's all parkers fault

you sound like you're using a 2 year sample. the dude caught freakin 27 passes, 14 of which was in the last 4 weeks. so you derived all of this from a 4 game sample taken at the end of the season? did you ever think that jackson didn't scare anybody?

what other receiver with 30 catches in 2 years can we hype up? hey, lets do brandon jones next.

you disagree with my contention that Charger opponents didn't respect the Chargers deep passing game?

no, i think i might agree with that.i think i disagreed with the gates, vjax i-2 tandem part. also didn't buy defenses cheating against vjax because of parkers lack of a deep threat.

 

[Jason Wood]

I don't think it's a stretch at all to see Gates with 80 receptions, I don't have him projected for that, but it's not a stretch. Also, just because they're moving him around doesn't mean they'll increase his targets...targets are the main concern here as it relates to Jackson's opportunity.

I know I sound like a broken record, but that's obviously my issue with Jackson. I just don't see him getting the targets necessary to hit some of these projections. Using McCardell as a benchmark is not valid in my eyes because he attained his stats with a different QB and HC. Personally, I think the guy can play. I'll be watching him in pre-season to see how he is utilized, but today, I don't see him catching more than 55 passes. That's double what he did last year, too.

Not only will Jackson's targets significantly increase (he's WR1 heading into '07 while he was WR3 at this point last offseason), I expect Charger WR targets to increase as a whole as well based on a couple of factors:1 - San Diego won't go 14-2, and they'll likely be playing from behind or in more closely contested games which require less ball control and more aggressive offensive play calling late in games.

2 - the leash is completely off of Philip Rivers. You won't see any more games of 11 total attempts (like Week 1 of '06) or 22 total attempts (when Cam Cameron put the shackles on Rivers and cost San Diego the Baltimore game). Not only should Rivers' total pass attempts increase, I'd surmise that Charger WRs will see a disproportionate increase in their targets compared to TEs and RBs. Reason being, Rivers should have far more confidence as a second year starter and will be looking for more "big plays" this season than last year. That being said, my somewhat conservative projection for VJax reflects my earlier contention that Rivers is VJax's biggest obstacle for big success; Rivers will still take what the defense gives him more often than not despite being more experienced and having a stronger comfort level.

That may be all well and good, but Norv Turner has a long history which paints a pretty clear picture. He believes in running the ball effectively and throwing off play action once you've established a running attack. In Turner's history as both an OC and head coach, his teams have varied greatly in their run/pass ratios...BUT, that's clearly born out of the team's ability to run the ball.When Turner's teams are able to run the ball, he simply doesn't call a lot of pass plays. This is fact.

In Turner's 16 seasons running NFL offenses, he has had a top-10 rushing offense FOUR times:

1992 Dallas -- 4th in rushing attempts, 12th in passing attempts [491]
1993 Dallas -- 6th in rushing attempts, 24th in passing attempts [475]
2002 Miami -- 1st in rushing attempts, 31st in passing attempts [455]
2003 Miami -- 8th in rushing attempts, 30th in passing attempts [450]

Average -- 467.75 passing attemptsCoincidentally, or not, the Chargers threw the ball 466 times last year. Unless you think Tomlinson and the Chargers ground game are going to cease being one of the league's best, there is no logical reason to think Rivers is going to attempt many more passes.

It's illogical to think that Norv Turner will throw the ball more with Philip Rivers than Jay Fiedler, Ray Lucas, and Brian Griese?

LOL...Troy Aikman doesn't count?The Chargers had the #1 scoring offense and the #7 yardage offense in the NFL last year. Do you honestly think they're going to increase the total number of offensive snaps they take? Not very likely. Which means every extra pass attempt for Rivers is one less carry for LT.

 

[KING]

So how is his situation this year different than McCardell's situation two years ago? LT and Gates were the top targets in the offense, and McCradell managed 70/917/9. Brees only threw for 3150 and 27 that year. Rivers actually threw for more yards and almost as many TDs last year.

why are you even trying to compare jackson to mccardell?

861 receptions, over 11,000 yards, 5 seasons 80+ catches > 30 career passes caught over 2 seasons

maybe one day jackson will be that good, but not now

Huh? Who was comparing McCardell to Jackson? Look back at the post that you clipped. The poster I was replying to was saying there is no room in SD for a WR to post good numbers. I pointed out that a WR just did it two years ago in the same system with a QB that produced about at the same level that Rivers did last year.Comparing their careers at this point is simply moronic and has nothing to do at all with how good either one of them are at this point in time. Jerry Rice had a much better career, but I would take Vincent Jackson over him today, and so would anyone with an ounce of football sense. Jackson is the #1 WR on the team that told McCardell to take a hike. It's not tough to figure out which one is better.

i would agree that it is possible for a charger receiver to catch 70 passes. just not jackson. does that help?

 

[Giggity]

It's illogical to think that Norv Turner will throw the ball more with Philip Rivers than Jay Fiedler, Ray Lucas, and Brian Griese?

Norv likes to run the ball - a lot. Even with a HOF QB in Dallas. So yes, to think that Norv will come in and go pass happy is illogical.

 

[tommyGunZ]

just to add a little more edge to my skepticism on Jackson...

One of the things I look for in a WR are ball skills that make it look like they don't even have to think about catching the ball - like they were programmed to do it. There's a lot ofelements to this - whether they subtlely move their hands back as the ball arrives to absorb some of the force vs. rigidly holding their arms and hands out, whether they smoothly extend for the ball and bring it in, or jab at the ball, whether they jump to receive a pass or catch it in stride, whether they body catch or pluck the ball out of the air...

In general, all of these things come back to one question, Does the receiver seem like he is thinking when the ball arrives? Thinking = bad. Jackson strikes me as the kind of WR who still thinks the ball instead of letting repetition and instincts take over. I have seen very few WRs make the transition from unnatural to natural when it comes to ball skills.

This is highly, highly, highly speculative, IMO. I agree with much of what you're saying, but I haven't seen anything from Jackson that lead me to believe he is "unnatural" receiving the football.Slow-mo ~ the 30 second mark

But I'm a homer, so my shades are definitely tinted.

Funny, because I would use that clip to cite my point. Shortening your stride and "feeling" the back of the end zone coming is one of those things I would classify as "natural WR skills". Jackson could have easily shortened his stride, or even done the good ole "dot the I". Also, watch the way he pulls the ball into his body when it was unnecessary - he already had two hands on it - of course that doesnt stop the ball from moving around a little even after Jackson has both hands on it. The kind of WRs I look for pluck the ball out of the air, and it stays still once it hits their hands - they also trust their hands. Maybe, just maybe, Jackson was thinking about not dropping the ball instead of being aware of the end line - pure speculation, but I remember thinking when that play happened, "it should have been easier for him to get both feet in".

Completely agree. Cost San Diego a TD. I just disagree with the notion that he doesn't look natural catching the football, with emphasis on the hands and arms.

The opportunity is there for WR1 #'s, the size/athleticism is there, so if Jackson fails to deliver, I'll give you your just due on calling this one on your perception of his natural receiving ability. As I've posted earlier, I think he'll have little problem catching 60 balls for ~ 1000 yards and 7-9 TDs, but I wouldn't project more than that b/c of Rivers inclination to spread the ball around.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I don't think it's a stretch at all to see Gates with 80 receptions, I don't have him projected for that, but it's not a stretch. Also, just because they're moving him around doesn't mean they'll increase his targets...targets are the main concern here as it relates to Jackson's opportunity.

I know I sound like a broken record, but that's obviously my issue with Jackson. I just don't see him getting the targets necessary to hit some of these projections. Using McCardell as a benchmark is not valid in my eyes because he attained his stats with a different QB and HC. Personally, I think the guy can play. I'll be watching him in pre-season to see how he is utilized, but today, I don't see him catching more than 55 passes. That's double what he did last year, too.

Not only will Jackson's targets significantly increase (he's WR1 heading into '07 while he was WR3 at this point last offseason), I expect Charger WR targets to increase as a whole as well based on a couple of factors:1 - San Diego won't go 14-2, and they'll likely be playing from behind or in more closely contested games which require less ball control and more aggressive offensive play calling late in games.

2 - the leash is completely off of Philip Rivers. You won't see any more games of 11 total attempts (like Week 1 of '06) or 22 total attempts (when Cam Cameron put the shackles on Rivers and cost San Diego the Baltimore game). Not only should Rivers' total pass attempts increase, I'd surmise that Charger WRs will see a disproportionate increase in their targets compared to TEs and RBs. Reason being, Rivers should have far more confidence as a second year starter and will be looking for more "big plays" this season than last year. That being said, my somewhat conservative projection for VJax reflects my earlier contention that Rivers is VJax's biggest obstacle for big success; Rivers will still take what the defense gives him more often than not despite being more experienced and having a stronger comfort level.

That may be all well and good, but Norv Turner has a long history which paints a pretty clear picture. He believes in running the ball effectively and throwing off play action once you've established a running attack. In Turner's history as both an OC and head coach, his teams have varied greatly in their run/pass ratios...BUT, that's clearly born out of the team's ability to run the ball.When Turner's teams are able to run the ball, he simply doesn't call a lot of pass plays. This is fact.

In Turner's 16 seasons running NFL offenses, he has had a top-10 rushing offense FOUR times:

1992 Dallas -- 4th in rushing attempts, 12th in passing attempts [491]
1993 Dallas -- 6th in rushing attempts, 24th in passing attempts [475]
2002 Miami -- 1st in rushing attempts, 31st in passing attempts [455]
2003 Miami -- 8th in rushing attempts, 30th in passing attempts [450]

Average -- 467.75 passing attemptsCoincidentally, or not, the Chargers threw the ball 466 times last year. Unless you think Tomlinson and the Chargers ground game are going to cease being one of the league's best, there is no logical reason to think Rivers is going to attempt many more passes.

It's illogical to think that Norv Turner will throw the ball more with Philip Rivers than Jay Fiedler, Ray Lucas, and Brian Griese?

LOL...Troy Aikman doesn't count?The Chargers had the #1 scoring offense and the #7 yardage offense in the NFL last year. Do you honestly think they're going to increase the total number of offensive snaps they take? Not very likely. Which means every extra pass attempt for Rivers is one less carry for LT.

The Chargers finished 26th in the NFL in passing attempts last season with a rookie QB and Marty as the head coach while going 14-2. My contention is that Rivers won't be handcuffed as he was for the first 3-4 weeks last year and that the Chargers will play from behind more often than they did in '06, both leading to more pass attempts.If LT gets fewer carries and remains well rested for the playoffs, well that's just an added bonus.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

just to add a little more edge to my skepticism on Jackson...

One of the things I look for in a WR are ball skills that make it look like they don't even have to think about catching the ball - like they were programmed to do it. There's a lot ofelements to this - whether they subtlely move their hands back as the ball arrives to absorb some of the force vs. rigidly holding their arms and hands out, whether they smoothly extend for the ball and bring it in, or jab at the ball, whether they jump to receive a pass or catch it in stride, whether they body catch or pluck the ball out of the air...

In general, all of these things come back to one question, Does the receiver seem like he is thinking when the ball arrives? Thinking = bad. Jackson strikes me as the kind of WR who still thinks the ball instead of letting repetition and instincts take over. I have seen very few WRs make the transition from unnatural to natural when it comes to ball skills.

This is highly, highly, highly speculative, IMO. I agree with much of what you're saying, but I haven't seen anything from Jackson that lead me to believe he is "unnatural" receiving the football.Slow-mo ~ the 30 second mark

But I'm a homer, so my shades are definitely tinted.

Funny, because I would use that clip to cite my point. Shortening your stride and "feeling" the back of the end zone coming is one of those things I would classify as "natural WR skills". Jackson could have easily shortened his stride, or even done the good ole "dot the I". Also, watch the way he pulls the ball into his body when it was unnecessary - he already had two hands on it - of course that doesnt stop the ball from moving around a little even after Jackson has both hands on it. The kind of WRs I look for pluck the ball out of the air, and it stays still once it hits their hands - they also trust their hands. Maybe, just maybe, Jackson was thinking about not dropping the ball instead of being aware of the end line - pure speculation, but I remember thinking when that play happened, "it should have been easier for him to get both feet in".

Completely agree. Cost San Diego a TD. I just disagree with the notion that he doesn't look natural catching the football, with emphasis on the hands and arms.

The opportunity is there for WR1 #'s, the size/athleticism is there, so if Jackson fails to deliver, I'll give you your just due on calling this one on your perception of his natural receiving ability. As I've posted earlier, I think he'll have little problem catching 60 balls for ~ 1000 yards and 7-9 TDs, but I wouldn't project more than that b/c of Rivers inclination to spread the ball around.

You just glossed over the fact that he double-clutched that ball and pulled it into his body for no reason I can see. Watch how the ball "lands" in his hands instead Jackson plucking it out of the air (the 2nd and 3rd slo mo angles show this well). You also admit that you were because your gut told you that should have been a TD.You want to be my #1 WR? You should be able to catch that ball cleanly and get your feet in.

 

[Despyzer]

i would agree that it is possible for a charger receiver to catch 70 passes. just not jackson. does that help?

Fair enough. Which Chargers WR are you picking to outproduce Jackson?

 

[tommyGunZ]

It's illogical to think that Norv Turner will throw the ball more with Philip Rivers than Jay Fiedler, Ray Lucas, and Brian Griese?

Norv likes to run the ball - a lot. Even with a HOF QB in Dallas. So yes, to think that Norv will come in and go pass happy is illogical.

No one has suggested Norv will go pass happy - he won't need to go pass happy to increase Rivers pass attempts as San Diego was extremely conservative last year with their 1st year starting QB (26th in PA).

 

[Giggity]

Completely agree. Cost San Diego a TD. I just disagree with the notion that he doesn't look natural catching the football, with emphasis on the hands and arms. The opportunity is there for WR1 #'s, the size/athleticism is there, so if Jackson fails to deliver, I'll give you your just due on calling this one on your perception of his natural receiving ability. As I've posted earlier, I think he'll have little problem catching 60 balls for ~ 1000 yards and 7-9 TDs, but I wouldn't project more than that b/c of Rivers inclination to spread the ball around.

WR1 #s? Only 1/2 of WR1s get 1000 yards, and only half get 7 tds. There's no "Oh he's WR1, he'll get 1000,7". And how many teams have an elite TE, and elite RB stealing catches? Clearly WR1 for the Chargers, is much worse then WR1 for a lot of teams. WR1 for Chargers has 0 shot at 90 catches. Won't happen. But many WR1s can get 90ish catches for teams. Jackson has no shot at top 15, and might be a decent top 25-30 guy if things go well for him. But with Gates/LT, there's just not a lot of meat to go around, and VJack is largely unproven to begin with. And yes he will have a problem catching 60/100/7-9. The problem is he's never done it before, or even sniffed that kind of production, even at his best. So not only are we saying he'll be WR1, we're saying he'll vastly improve of over past production.Calling out career years, taking over in the passing game, with LT/Gates and a newly drafted 1st rnd WR, is risky at best. But because of the hype, he'll be lucky to meet his ADP value, and will probably be a mild bust this year.

 

[Jason Wood]

I don't think it's a stretch at all to see Gates with 80 receptions, I don't have him projected for that, but it's not a stretch. Also, just because they're moving him around doesn't mean they'll increase his targets...targets are the main concern here as it relates to Jackson's opportunity.

I know I sound like a broken record, but that's obviously my issue with Jackson. I just don't see him getting the targets necessary to hit some of these projections. Using McCardell as a benchmark is not valid in my eyes because he attained his stats with a different QB and HC. Personally, I think the guy can play. I'll be watching him in pre-season to see how he is utilized, but today, I don't see him catching more than 55 passes. That's double what he did last year, too.

Not only will Jackson's targets significantly increase (he's WR1 heading into '07 while he was WR3 at this point last offseason), I expect Charger WR targets to increase as a whole as well based on a couple of factors:1 - San Diego won't go 14-2, and they'll likely be playing from behind or in more closely contested games which require less ball control and more aggressive offensive play calling late in games.

2 - the leash is completely off of Philip Rivers. You won't see any more games of 11 total attempts (like Week 1 of '06) or 22 total attempts (when Cam Cameron put the shackles on Rivers and cost San Diego the Baltimore game). Not only should Rivers' total pass attempts increase, I'd surmise that Charger WRs will see a disproportionate increase in their targets compared to TEs and RBs. Reason being, Rivers should have far more confidence as a second year starter and will be looking for more "big plays" this season than last year. That being said, my somewhat conservative projection for VJax reflects my earlier contention that Rivers is VJax's biggest obstacle for big success; Rivers will still take what the defense gives him more often than not despite being more experienced and having a stronger comfort level.

That may be all well and good, but Norv Turner has a long history which paints a pretty clear picture. He believes in running the ball effectively and throwing off play action once you've established a running attack. In Turner's history as both an OC and head coach, his teams have varied greatly in their run/pass ratios...BUT, that's clearly born out of the team's ability to run the ball.When Turner's teams are able to run the ball, he simply doesn't call a lot of pass plays. This is fact.

In Turner's 16 seasons running NFL offenses, he has had a top-10 rushing offense FOUR times:

1992 Dallas -- 4th in rushing attempts, 12th in passing attempts [491]
1993 Dallas -- 6th in rushing attempts, 24th in passing attempts [475]
2002 Miami -- 1st in rushing attempts, 31st in passing attempts [455]
2003 Miami -- 8th in rushing attempts, 30th in passing attempts [450]

Average -- 467.75 passing attemptsCoincidentally, or not, the Chargers threw the ball 466 times last year. Unless you think Tomlinson and the Chargers ground game are going to cease being one of the league's best, there is no logical reason to think Rivers is going to attempt many more passes.

It's illogical to think that Norv Turner will throw the ball more with Philip Rivers than Jay Fiedler, Ray Lucas, and Brian Griese?

LOL...Troy Aikman doesn't count?The Chargers had the #1 scoring offense and the #7 yardage offense in the NFL last year. Do you honestly think they're going to increase the total number of offensive snaps they take? Not very likely. Which means every extra pass attempt for Rivers is one less carry for LT.

The Chargers finished 26th in the NFL in passing attempts last season with a rookie QB and Marty as the head coach while going 14-2. My contention is that Rivers won't be handcuffed as he was for the first 3-4 weeks last year and that the Chargers will play from behind more often than they did in '06, both leading to more pass attempts.If LT gets fewer carries and remains well rested for the playoffs, well that's just an added bonus.

Sure, as long as you aren't projecting him to attempt 500+ attempts, I think a logical case can be made for an increased workload. But there's a big difference between projecting 490 attempts and 530, for example.

 

[Jason Wood]

The Chargers ran the ball 525 times as a team last year, and 526 times in 2004; both exemplary seasons (14-2 and 12-4, respectively). In 2005, the team was 9-7 and they ran the ball 465 times as a team.

If we look at Norv Turner's coaching history...six of his 16 teams have ran the ball 465 or more times; and in those five seasons his teams have passed for: 491, 475, 521, 471, 455, 450 attempts for an average of 477 attempts. Only once did a team that ran the ball effectively also throw more than 500 times.

Philip Rivers isn't going to throw more than 480-490 times unless a) the running game falls apart [both Tomlinson AND Turner] or b) the defense crumbles.

 

[tommyGunZ]

just to add a little more edge to my skepticism on Jackson...

One of the things I look for in a WR are ball skills that make it look like they don't even have to think about catching the ball - like they were programmed to do it. There's a lot ofelements to this - whether they subtlely move their hands back as the ball arrives to absorb some of the force vs. rigidly holding their arms and hands out, whether they smoothly extend for the ball and bring it in, or jab at the ball, whether they jump to receive a pass or catch it in stride, whether they body catch or pluck the ball out of the air...

In general, all of these things come back to one question, Does the receiver seem like he is thinking when the ball arrives? Thinking = bad. Jackson strikes me as the kind of WR who still thinks the ball instead of letting repetition and instincts take over. I have seen very few WRs make the transition from unnatural to natural when it comes to ball skills.

This is highly, highly, highly speculative, IMO. I agree with much of what you're saying, but I haven't seen anything from Jackson that lead me to believe he is "unnatural" receiving the football.Slow-mo ~ the 30 second mark

But I'm a homer, so my shades are definitely tinted.

Funny, because I would use that clip to cite my point. Shortening your stride and "feeling" the back of the end zone coming is one of those things I would classify as "natural WR skills". Jackson could have easily shortened his stride, or even done the good ole "dot the I". Also, watch the way he pulls the ball into his body when it was unnecessary - he already had two hands on it - of course that doesnt stop the ball from moving around a little even after Jackson has both hands on it. The kind of WRs I look for pluck the ball out of the air, and it stays still once it hits their hands - they also trust their hands. Maybe, just maybe, Jackson was thinking about not dropping the ball instead of being aware of the end line - pure speculation, but I remember thinking when that play happened, "it should have been easier for him to get both feet in".

Completely agree. Cost San Diego a TD. I just disagree with the notion that he doesn't look natural catching the football, with emphasis on the hands and arms.

The opportunity is there for WR1 #'s, the size/athleticism is there, so if Jackson fails to deliver, I'll give you your just due on calling this one on your perception of his natural receiving ability. As I've posted earlier, I think he'll have little problem catching 60 balls for ~ 1000 yards and 7-9 TDs, but I wouldn't project more than that b/c of Rivers inclination to spread the ball around.

You just glossed over the fact that he double-clutched that ball and pulled it into his body for no reason I can see. Watch how the ball "lands" in his hands instead Jackson plucking it out of the air (the 2nd and 3rd slo mo angles show this well). You also admit that you were because your gut told you that should have been a TD.You want to be my #1 WR? You should be able to catch that ball cleanly and get your feet in.

We're seeing/interpreting different things here bro - I don't see anything that suggests VJax bobbled or mishandled that ball in any way. The pulling of the ball down and into his body appears to be him continuing the natural catching motion. I think VJax simply underestimated how far into the back of the end zone he was and didn't drag that toe quite as early as he could have.To be honest, running full speed and catching a 47 yard bomb in motion is far different from Marvin Harrison doting the "i" on a quick 15 yard out. I chalk that mistake up to inexperience and VJax concentrating on making sure he caught the ball. With time, he'll get better.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Completely agree. Cost San Diego a TD. I just disagree with the notion that he doesn't look natural catching the football, with emphasis on the hands and arms. The opportunity is there for WR1 #'s, the size/athleticism is there, so if Jackson fails to deliver, I'll give you your just due on calling this one on your perception of his natural receiving ability. As I've posted earlier, I think he'll have little problem catching 60 balls for ~ 1000 yards and 7-9 TDs, but I wouldn't project more than that b/c of Rivers inclination to spread the ball around.

WR1 #s? Only 1/2 of WR1s get 1000 yards, and only half get 7 tds. There's no "Oh he's WR1, he'll get 1000,7". And how many teams have an elite TE, and elite RB stealing catches? Clearly WR1 for the Chargers, is much worse then WR1 for a lot of teams. WR1 for Chargers has 0 shot at 90 catches. Won't happen. But many WR1s can get 90ish catches for teams. Jackson has no shot at top 15, and might be a decent top 25-30 guy if things go well for him. But with Gates/LT, there's just not a lot of meat to go around, and VJack is largely unproven to begin with. And yes he will have a problem catching 60/100/7-9. The problem is he's never done it before, or even sniffed that kind of production, even at his best. So not only are we saying he'll be WR1, we're saying he'll vastly improve of over past production.Calling out career years, taking over in the passing game, with LT/Gates and a newly drafted 1st rnd WR, is risky at best. But because of the hype, he'll be lucky to meet his ADP value, and will probably be a mild bust this year.

I base my projection on:1) the Charger WR1 will catch 60 balls if he remains healthy and doesn't lose the job. I'll be the happiest fan on this board if Buster Davis blows up and becomes Marques Colston 2, but it's pretty safe to assume VJax has a very strong hold on the WR1 job in San Diego right now.2) While Jackson won't catch 90 or 100 balls, he'll also likely have more red zone looks than a lot of the WRs who catch more balls per game. The Charger offense is very good. In the red zone, they often go to a 1 WR set with Jackson as the sole WR in the game. No one in their right mind would project Jackson to continue his unworldly TD-Reception ratio, but if he can get 6 while being WR1 for about 1/2 the season, he should be able to get 7-9 in a full season.3) 1000 yards is 62.5 a game. I think Jackson will average ~ 62.5 yards receiving per game.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Again folks, we're not talking about a talentless, undrafted FA winning the WR1 job. Jackson came to the Chargers extremely highly rated, the Chargers thought VERY highly of him both as a player and an individual, and his measurables are outstanding.

Injuries really slowed him his rookie year, and the jump from D1-AA to the NFL was a big one. But this guy is a physical freak who has been very impressive to the Charger coaches and FO for 2 years now. This isn't a Colston out-of-nowhere story - VJax is SUPPOSED to be good.

 

[Jason Wood]

Again folks, we're not talking about a talentless, undrafted FA winning the WR1 job. Jackson came to the Chargers extremely highly rated, the Chargers thought VERY highly of him both as a player and an individual, and his measurables are outstanding.Injuries really slowed him his rookie year, and the jump from D1-AA to the NFL was a big one. But this guy is a physical freak who has been very impressive to the Charger coaches and FO for 2 years now. This isn't a Colston out-of-nowhere story - VJax is SUPPOSED to be good.

So were Donte Stallworth, Eddie Kennison, Terry Glenn, Devery Henderson, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, Reggie Williams, Muhsin Muhammad and others

 

[Rev]

Again folks, we're not talking about a talentless, undrafted FA winning the WR1 job. Jackson came to the Chargers extremely highly rated, the Chargers thought VERY highly of him both as a player and an individual, and his measurables are outstanding.

Injuries really slowed him his rookie year, and the jump from D1-AA to the NFL was a big one. But this guy is a physical freak who has been very impressive to the Charger coaches and FO for 2 years now. This isn't a Colston out-of-nowhere story - VJax is SUPPOSED to be good.

So were Donte Stallworth, Eddie Kennison, Terry Glenn, Devery Henderson, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, Reggie Williams, Muhsin Muhammad and others

 

[Jason Wood]

Again folks, we're not talking about a talentless, undrafted FA winning the WR1 job. Jackson came to the Chargers extremely highly rated, the Chargers thought VERY highly of him both as a player and an individual, and his measurables are outstanding.

Injuries really slowed him his rookie year, and the jump from D1-AA to the NFL was a big one. But this guy is a physical freak who has been very impressive to the Charger coaches and FO for 2 years now. This isn't a Colston out-of-nowhere story - VJax is SUPPOSED to be good.

So were Donte Stallworth, Eddie Kennison, Terry Glenn, Devery Henderson, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, Reggie Williams, Muhsin Muhammad and others

All those guys were highly touted, had similar seasons to Jackson in their 2nd years, and failed to deliver big numbers in their 3rd.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Again folks, we're not talking about a talentless, undrafted FA winning the WR1 job. Jackson came to the Chargers extremely highly rated, the Chargers thought VERY highly of him both as a player and an individual, and his measurables are outstanding.Injuries really slowed him his rookie year, and the jump from D1-AA to the NFL was a big one. But this guy is a physical freak who has been very impressive to the Charger coaches and FO for 2 years now. This isn't a Colston out-of-nowhere story - VJax is SUPPOSED to be good.

So were Donte Stallworth, Eddie Kennison, Terry Glenn, Devery Henderson, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, Reggie Williams, Muhsin Muhammad and others

Agreed. I'd be much more hesitant with regard to VJax stepping into the #1 WR role if the guys whose jobs depend on the Chargers winning football games were down on him. Instead, after watching his every move in games and practices for the past two years, they've anointed him WR1 and haven't brought in any competition.VJax could certainly bust, but AJ Smith and Co. have had a long, long look, and they're sold. That's good enough for me.

 

[Jason Wood]

Again folks, we're not talking about a talentless, undrafted FA winning the WR1 job. Jackson came to the Chargers extremely highly rated, the Chargers thought VERY highly of him both as a player and an individual, and his measurables are outstanding.Injuries really slowed him his rookie year, and the jump from D1-AA to the NFL was a big one. But this guy is a physical freak who has been very impressive to the Charger coaches and FO for 2 years now. This isn't a Colston out-of-nowhere story - VJax is SUPPOSED to be good.

So were Donte Stallworth, Eddie Kennison, Terry Glenn, Devery Henderson, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, Reggie Williams, Muhsin Muhammad and others

Agreed. I'd be much more hesitant with regard to VJax stepping into the #1 WR role if the guys whose jobs depend on the Chargers winning football games were down on him. Instead, after watching his every move in games and practices for the past two years, they've anointed him WR1 and haven't brought in any competition.VJax could certainly bust, but AJ Smith and Co. have had a long, long look, and they're sold. That's good enough for me.

They didn't bring in any competition?1) They used a 1st round pick on a WR2) Free agency is over?

 

[Rev]

Again folks, we're not talking about a talentless, undrafted FA winning the WR1 job. Jackson came to the Chargers extremely highly rated, the Chargers thought VERY highly of him both as a player and an individual, and his measurables are outstanding.

Injuries really slowed him his rookie year, and the jump from D1-AA to the NFL was a big one. But this guy is a physical freak who has been very impressive to the Charger coaches and FO for 2 years now. This isn't a Colston out-of-nowhere story - VJax is SUPPOSED to be good.

So were Donte Stallworth, Eddie Kennison, Terry Glenn, Devery Henderson, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, Reggie Williams, Muhsin Muhammad and others

All those guys were highly touted, had similar seasons to Jackson in their 2nd years, and failed to deliver big numbers in their 3rd.

Santana Moss' 3rd season: 74/1105/10 Muhammad's 3rd season: 68/941/6

Muhammad's 4th season: 96/1253/8

Derrick Mason didn't start a game in his 3rd season, which means that he obviously wasn't the #1 WR. The first season in which he started nearly every game was his 5th: 73/1128/9.

Donte Stallworth had a lighter 3rd year (58/767/5) but a nice 4th: 70/945/7

Most of these guys don't have the physical package that VJ has, nor the offensive situation. Yet, comparing VJ to guys like this means that his odds are pretty darn good, IMHO!

 

[Jason Wood]

Again folks, we're not talking about a talentless, undrafted FA winning the WR1 job. Jackson came to the Chargers extremely highly rated, the Chargers thought VERY highly of him both as a player and an individual, and his measurables are outstanding.

Injuries really slowed him his rookie year, and the jump from D1-AA to the NFL was a big one. But this guy is a physical freak who has been very impressive to the Charger coaches and FO for 2 years now. This isn't a Colston out-of-nowhere story - VJax is SUPPOSED to be good.

So were Donte Stallworth, Eddie Kennison, Terry Glenn, Devery Henderson, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, Reggie Williams, Muhsin Muhammad and others

All those guys were highly touted, had similar seasons to Jackson in their 2nd years, and failed to deliver big numbers in their 3rd.

Santana Moss' 3rd season: 74/1105/10 Muhammad's 3rd season: 68/941/6

Muhammad's 4th season: 96/1253/8

Derrick Mason didn't start a game in his 3rd season, which means that he obviously wasn't the #1 WR. The first season in which he started nearly every game was his 5th: 73/1128/9.

Donte Stallworth had a lighter 3rd year (58/767/5) but a nice 4th: 70/945/7

Most of these guys don't have the physical package that VJ has, nor the offensive situation. Yet, comparing VJ to guys like this means that his odds are pretty darn good, IMHO!

I beg of you to read this entire thread...that's simply flawed logic.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Again folks, we're not talking about a talentless, undrafted FA winning the WR1 job. Jackson came to the Chargers extremely highly rated, the Chargers thought VERY highly of him both as a player and an individual, and his measurables are outstanding.Injuries really slowed him his rookie year, and the jump from D1-AA to the NFL was a big one. But this guy is a physical freak who has been very impressive to the Charger coaches and FO for 2 years now. This isn't a Colston out-of-nowhere story - VJax is SUPPOSED to be good.

So were Donte Stallworth, Eddie Kennison, Terry Glenn, Devery Henderson, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, Reggie Williams, Muhsin Muhammad and others

Agreed. I'd be much more hesitant with regard to VJax stepping into the #1 WR role if the guys whose jobs depend on the Chargers winning football games were down on him. Instead, after watching his every move in games and practices for the past two years, they've anointed him WR1 and haven't brought in any competition.VJax could certainly bust, but AJ Smith and Co. have had a long, long look, and they're sold. That's good enough for me.

They didn't bring in any competition?1) They used a 1st round pick on a WR2) Free agency is over?

1) Craig Davis will compete with Eric Parker for the WR2 slot, likely beginning the season as WR3. He won't be competing with Jackson for the WR1 job, unless something drastically changes between now and August.2) The Chargers released Keenan McCardell, and signed 0 of the top 45 FA WRs as ranked by Scouts Inc. As you point out, FA isn't over, and I'd actually like to see the Chargers sign at least 1 WR with experience. Here is the list of top 45 FA WRs still available per Scouts Inc:

Antonio BryantKeyshawnEric MouldsTravis TaylorKeenan McCardellTroy BrownDavid PattenCory BradfordTerrence WilkinsKarl HanktonWillie PonderTroy WaltersLee MaysAlex BannisterDevard Darling

Which of those guys would scare you into knocking down VJax's value if they were signed? Bryant, maybe. But none of the others.Pretty safe to say that AJ Smith is banking on VJax to get it done this year.

 

[Jason Wood]

Again folks, we're not talking about a talentless, undrafted FA winning the WR1 job. Jackson came to the Chargers extremely highly rated, the Chargers thought VERY highly of him both as a player and an individual, and his measurables are outstanding.Injuries really slowed him his rookie year, and the jump from D1-AA to the NFL was a big one. But this guy is a physical freak who has been very impressive to the Charger coaches and FO for 2 years now. This isn't a Colston out-of-nowhere story - VJax is SUPPOSED to be good.

So were Donte Stallworth, Eddie Kennison, Terry Glenn, Devery Henderson, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, Reggie Williams, Muhsin Muhammad and others

Agreed. I'd be much more hesitant with regard to VJax stepping into the #1 WR role if the guys whose jobs depend on the Chargers winning football games were down on him. Instead, after watching his every move in games and practices for the past two years, they've anointed him WR1 and haven't brought in any competition.VJax could certainly bust, but AJ Smith and Co. have had a long, long look, and they're sold. That's good enough for me.

They didn't bring in any competition?1) They used a 1st round pick on a WR2) Free agency is over?

1) Craig Davis will compete with Eric Parker for the WR2 slot, likely beginning the season as WR3. He won't be competing with Jackson for the WR1 job, unless something drastically changes between now and August.2) The Chargers released Keenan McCardell, and signed 0 of the top 45 FA WRs as ranked by Scouts Inc. As you point out, FA isn't over, and I'd actually like to see the Chargers sign at least 1 WR with experience. Here is the list of top 45 FA WRs still available per Scouts Inc:

Antonio BryantKeyshawnEric MouldsTravis TaylorKeenan McCardellTroy BrownDavid PattenCory BradfordTerrence WilkinsKarl HanktonWillie PonderTroy WaltersLee MaysAlex BannisterDevard Darling

Which of those guys would scare you into knocking down VJax's value if they were signed? Bryant, maybe. But none of the others.Pretty safe to say that AJ Smith is banking on VJax to get it done this year.

I think at the end of the day we aren't disagreeing that Jackson will improve or be given the chance to be the top WR on the team. I think we disagree on the magnitude of that improvement and what it means from a fantasy perspective.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I think at the end of the day we aren't disagreeing that Jackson will improve or be given the chance to be the top WR on the team. I think we disagree on the magnitude of that improvement and what it means from a fantasy perspective.

These discussions are always beneficial to my FF performance each fall. Looking fwd to seeing your projections. If they are in the 40, 600, 5 range, don't say we'd didn't try to warn you Woodrow.

 

[Rev]

Again folks, we're not talking about a talentless, undrafted FA winning the WR1 job. Jackson came to the Chargers extremely highly rated, the Chargers thought VERY highly of him both as a player and an individual, and his measurables are outstanding.

Injuries really slowed him his rookie year, and the jump from D1-AA to the NFL was a big one. But this guy is a physical freak who has been very impressive to the Charger coaches and FO for 2 years now. This isn't a Colston out-of-nowhere story - VJax is SUPPOSED to be good.

So were Donte Stallworth, Eddie Kennison, Terry Glenn, Devery Henderson, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, Reggie Williams, Muhsin Muhammad and others

All those guys were highly touted, had similar seasons to Jackson in their 2nd years, and failed to deliver big numbers in their 3rd.

Santana Moss' 3rd season: 74/1105/10 Muhammad's 3rd season: 68/941/6

Muhammad's 4th season: 96/1253/8

Derrick Mason didn't start a game in his 3rd season, which means that he obviously wasn't the #1 WR. The first season in which he started nearly every game was his 5th: 73/1128/9.

Donte Stallworth had a lighter 3rd year (58/767/5) but a nice 4th: 70/945/7

Most of these guys don't have the physical package that VJ has, nor the offensive situation. Yet, comparing VJ to guys like this means that his odds are pretty darn good, IMHO!

I beg of you to read this entire thread...that's simply flawed logic.

Hey man, if my logic is flawed, it wouldn't be the first time... but to prove that, shouldn't you explain how Santana Moss' 3rd season is a good example of a player who "failed to deliver big numbers in their 3rd" year? And how Mason constitutes a good comparison in light of the fact that he wan't a starter for his 3rd season? Or even how Muhammad's 3rd season stats could be seen as a disappointment?And would you disagree that VJ has a better physical gift set that most of these players?

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I'd be interested in hearing some examples in which a player jumped from WR3 to WR1 in a stable system while showing no statistical improvement or actually declining in production.

I'm interested as well.

Wasn't Keyshawn's first year in TB the year he was the #1 WR and finished with like 2 TDs? Didn't have one until REAL late in the year.

I just looked it up. It was his second year, and he only had 1.

But, still, that's one pretty good example. I'm sure there are lots more. The WR TD stat is very viscous.

 

[Rev]

I'd be interested in hearing some examples in which a player jumped from WR3 to WR1 in a stable system while showing no statistical improvement or actually declining in production.

I'm interested as well.

Wasn't Keyshawn's first year in TB the year he was the #1 WR and finished with like 2 TDs? Didn't have one until REAL late in the year.
I just looked it up. It was his second year, and he only had 1.But, still, that's one pretty good example. I'm sure there are lots more. The WR TD stat is very viscous.

OK, so Keyshawn had 3 seasons in his 12 year career with less than 5 TDs, and the season in question was one in which he had only 1 TD (his 6th season)... but you guys are leaving out a fairly important detail about that season: he had 106 receptions for over 1200 yards!!! Not to freegin' shabby, IMO!

 

[wolfie]

55-63 receptions700-825 yards7-8 tdsCan't see much more than those #s, with LT and Gates being 1A and 1B in that offense, unless you are looking for Rivers to throw for over 3800 yds and close to 30 tds. Not going to happen.

So how is his situation this year different than McCardell's situation two years ago? LT and Gates were the top targets in the offense, and McCradell managed 70/917/9. Brees only threw for 3150 and 27 that year. Rivers actually threw for more yards and almost as many TDs last year.

Rivers threw for 3388yds and 22 tds last year. I don't see much more than those #s this year, Norv Turner will run LT and Da Burner into the ground again this year. For me the #s I project for Jackson, are on par with a wr breaking out, not every wr explodes in the 1st year they breakout. The offensive system isn't there for it. But who knows what it will be in 2-3 years, if Jackson hits my #s this year I'll be pleased and loking for better down the road. If not, next.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I'd be interested in hearing some examples in which a player jumped from WR3 to WR1 in a stable system while showing no statistical improvement or actually declining in production.

I'm interested as well.

Wasn't Keyshawn's first year in TB the year he was the #1 WR and finished with like 2 TDs? Didn't have one until REAL late in the year.
I just looked it up. It was his second year, and he only had 1.But, still, that's one pretty good example. I'm sure there are lots more. The WR TD stat is very viscous.

OK, so Keyshawn had 3 seasons in his 12 year career with less than 5 TDs, and the season in question was one in which he had only 1 TD (his 6th season)... but you guys are leaving out a fairly important detail about that season: he had 106 receptions for over 1200 yards!!! Not to freegin' shabby, IMO!

Yeah, that was good but we were talking specifically about TDs.

 

[BassNBrew]

You'll notice those that actually watched all of the Chargers games last year(Gunz, Tremblay, Me etc.) are predicting a 900+ yard season, a lot of that is based on qualitative analysis and not the quantitative stats that you appear to rely on.

West Coast BiasI may have to re-think my 11 TDs and 63 recpts.

 

[tommyGunZ]

You'll notice those that actually watched all of the Chargers games last year(Gunz, Tremblay, Me etc.) are predicting a 900+ yard season, a lot of that is based on qualitative analysis and not the quantitative stats that you appear to rely on.

West Coast BiasI may have to re-think my 11 TDs and 63 recpts.

 

[BassNBrew]

You'll notice those that actually watched all of the Chargers games last year(Gunz, Tremblay, Me etc.) are predicting a 900+ yard season, a lot of that is based on qualitative analysis and not the quantitative stats that you appear to rely on.

West Coast BiasI may have to re-think my 11 TDs and 63 recpts.

Hopefully I nailed the powder puff aka Floyd Blue on the edit.

 

[Gr00vus]

Floyd basically ran one route. He went straight down the right sideline as fast as he could, and if he had single coverage (which he often did) Rivers would send it his way, and either Floyd had beaten his guy and made the reception, or he outsized the defender to make the reception.

This is not entirely true. I remember one time he went down the left sideline.

O.k. - you got me.3 pages on V.J. in mid May - only on FBGs.

 

[Tau837]

I don't think it's a stretch at all to see Gates with 80 receptions, I don't have him projected for that, but it's not a stretch. Also, just because they're moving him around doesn't mean they'll increase his targets...targets are the main concern here as it relates to Jackson's opportunity.

I know I sound like a broken record, but that's obviously my issue with Jackson. I just don't see him getting the targets necessary to hit some of these projections. Using McCardell as a benchmark is not valid in my eyes because he attained his stats with a different QB and HC. Personally, I think the guy can play. I'll be watching him in pre-season to see how he is utilized, but today, I don't see him catching more than 55 passes. That's double what he did last year, too.

Not only will Jackson's targets significantly increase (he's WR1 heading into '07 while he was WR3 at this point last offseason), I expect Charger WR targets to increase as a whole as well based on a couple of factors:1 - San Diego won't go 14-2, and they'll likely be playing from behind or in more closely contested games which require less ball control and more aggressive offensive play calling late in games.

2 - the leash is completely off of Philip Rivers. You won't see any more games of 11 total attempts (like Week 1 of '06) or 22 total attempts (when Cam Cameron put the shackles on Rivers and cost San Diego the Baltimore game). Not only should Rivers' total pass attempts increase, I'd surmise that Charger WRs will see a disproportionate increase in their targets compared to TEs and RBs. Reason being, Rivers should have far more confidence as a second year starter and will be looking for more "big plays" this season than last year. That being said, my somewhat conservative projection for VJax reflects my earlier contention that Rivers is VJax's biggest obstacle for big success; Rivers will still take what the defense gives him more often than not despite being more experienced and having a stronger comfort level.

That may be all well and good, but Norv Turner has a long history which paints a pretty clear picture. He believes in running the ball effectively and throwing off play action once you've established a running attack. In Turner's history as both an OC and head coach, his teams have varied greatly in their run/pass ratios...BUT, that's clearly born out of the team's ability to run the ball.When Turner's teams are able to run the ball, he simply doesn't call a lot of pass plays. This is fact.

In Turner's 16 seasons running NFL offenses, he has had a top-10 rushing offense FOUR times:

1992 Dallas -- 4th in rushing attempts, 12th in passing attempts [491]
1993 Dallas -- 6th in rushing attempts, 24th in passing attempts [475]
2002 Miami -- 1st in rushing attempts, 31st in passing attempts [455]
2003 Miami -- 8th in rushing attempts, 30th in passing attempts [450]

Average -- 467.75 passing attemptsCoincidentally, or not, the Chargers threw the ball 466 times last year. Unless you think Tomlinson and the Chargers ground game are going to cease being one of the league's best, there is no logical reason to think Rivers is going to attempt many more passes.

It's illogical to think that Norv Turner will throw the ball more with Philip Rivers than Jay Fiedler, Ray Lucas, and Brian Griese?

LOL...Troy Aikman doesn't count?The Chargers had the #1 scoring offense and the #7 yardage offense in the NFL last year. Do you honestly think they're going to increase the total number of offensive snaps they take? Not very likely. Which means every extra pass attempt for Rivers is one less carry for LT.

Jason -In the Philip Rivers spotlight I already pointed out that IMO the San Diego team and particularly offense seems reasonably similar to the Cowboys offense for which Norv was the OC (1991-1993). Those Cowboys teams averaged 489 passing attempts.

Also, Norv was brought in to maintain offensive continuity. In the 3 years prior to last season, the Chargers averaged 500 passing attempts.

These were reasons that led me to project 490 passing attempts for Rivers this year. Further, I projected that he will improve his completion percentage from 61.7% to 64%, which will yield 314 completions.

So, how might those be split up? I'd estimate the following:

TEs - 90 (last year: Gates 71, Manumaleuna 14)

RBs - 75 (last year: Tomlinson 56, Neal 17, Turner 3)

That leaves 149 for the WRs. I'd look for something like this:

Jackson 57 (last year 36)

Parker 45 (lastyear 48)

Floyd 32 (last year 15)

Davis 15

With respect to Jackson, I'd look for some regression in his ypr with more catches, perhaps to 15 ypr. As for TDs, I'm looking for 26 from Rivers... I'd look for 10 to the TEs (12 last year) and 2 to the RBs (3 last year), leaving 14 for the WRs... and I'd break that down as something like this:

Jackson 7

Parker 1

Floyd 5

Davis 1

That leaves me with 57/855/7 for Jackson.

I'd love some of the Chargers homers in particular to critique this breakdown.

ETA: I'm not sure that Floyd and Davis won't flip flop or more equitably share their projected combined numbers above... but I am assuming Jackson is the #1 and Parker is the second most targeted WR as a reliable possession guy.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Floyd basically ran one route. He went straight down the right sideline as fast as he could, and if he had single coverage (which he often did) Rivers would send it his way, and either Floyd had beaten his guy and made the reception, or he outsized the defender to make the reception.

This is not entirely true. I remember one time he went down the left sideline.

O.k. - you got me.3 pages on V.J. in mid May - only on FBGs.

Wonder what the post record is for a player spotlight thread.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I don't think it's a stretch at all to see Gates with 80 receptions, I don't have him projected for that, but it's not a stretch. Also, just because they're moving him around doesn't mean they'll increase his targets...targets are the main concern here as it relates to Jackson's opportunity.

I know I sound like a broken record, but that's obviously my issue with Jackson. I just don't see him getting the targets necessary to hit some of these projections. Using McCardell as a benchmark is not valid in my eyes because he attained his stats with a different QB and HC. Personally, I think the guy can play. I'll be watching him in pre-season to see how he is utilized, but today, I don't see him catching more than 55 passes. That's double what he did last year, too.

Not only will Jackson's targets significantly increase (he's WR1 heading into '07 while he was WR3 at this point last offseason), I expect Charger WR targets to increase as a whole as well based on a couple of factors:1 - San Diego won't go 14-2, and they'll likely be playing from behind or in more closely contested games which require less ball control and more aggressive offensive play calling late in games.

2 - the leash is completely off of Philip Rivers. You won't see any more games of 11 total attempts (like Week 1 of '06) or 22 total attempts (when Cam Cameron put the shackles on Rivers and cost San Diego the Baltimore game). Not only should Rivers' total pass attempts increase, I'd surmise that Charger WRs will see a disproportionate increase in their targets compared to TEs and RBs. Reason being, Rivers should have far more confidence as a second year starter and will be looking for more "big plays" this season than last year. That being said, my somewhat conservative projection for VJax reflects my earlier contention that Rivers is VJax's biggest obstacle for big success; Rivers will still take what the defense gives him more often than not despite being more experienced and having a stronger comfort level.

That may be all well and good, but Norv Turner has a long history which paints a pretty clear picture. He believes in running the ball effectively and throwing off play action once you've established a running attack. In Turner's history as both an OC and head coach, his teams have varied greatly in their run/pass ratios...BUT, that's clearly born out of the team's ability to run the ball.When Turner's teams are able to run the ball, he simply doesn't call a lot of pass plays. This is fact.

In Turner's 16 seasons running NFL offenses, he has had a top-10 rushing offense FOUR times:

1992 Dallas -- 4th in rushing attempts, 12th in passing attempts [491]
1993 Dallas -- 6th in rushing attempts, 24th in passing attempts [475]
2002 Miami -- 1st in rushing attempts, 31st in passing attempts [455]
2003 Miami -- 8th in rushing attempts, 30th in passing attempts [450]

Average -- 467.75 passing attemptsCoincidentally, or not, the Chargers threw the ball 466 times last year. Unless you think Tomlinson and the Chargers ground game are going to cease being one of the league's best, there is no logical reason to think Rivers is going to attempt many more passes.

It's illogical to think that Norv Turner will throw the ball more with Philip Rivers than Jay Fiedler, Ray Lucas, and Brian Griese?

LOL...Troy Aikman doesn't count?The Chargers had the #1 scoring offense and the #7 yardage offense in the NFL last year. Do you honestly think they're going to increase the total number of offensive snaps they take? Not very likely. Which means every extra pass attempt for Rivers is one less carry for LT.

Jason -In the Philip Rivers spotlight I already pointed out that IMO the San Diego team and particularly offense seems reasonably similar to the Cowboys offense for which Norv was the OC (1991-1993). Those Cowboys teams averaged 489 passing attempts.

Also, Norv was brought in to maintain offensive continuity. In the 3 years prior to last season, the Chargers averaged 500 passing attempts.

These were reasons that led me to project 490 passing attempts for Rivers this year. Further, I projected that he will improve his completion percentage from 61.7% to 64%, which will yield 314 completions.

So, how might those be split up? I'd estimate the following:

TEs - 90 (last year: Gates 71, Manumaleuna 14)

RBs - 75 (last year: Tomlinson 56, Neal 17, Turner 3)

That leaves 149 for the WRs. I'd look for something like this:

Jackson 57 (last year 36)

Parker 45 (lastyear 48)

Floyd 32 (last year 15)

Davis 15

With respect to Jackson, I'd look for some regression in his ypr with more catches, perhaps to 15 ypr. As for TDs, I'm looking for 26 from Rivers... I'd look for 10 to the TEs (12 last year) and 2 to the RBs (3 last year), leaving 14 for the WRs... and I'd break that down as something like this:

Jackson 7

Parker 1

Floyd 5

Davis 1

That leaves me with 57/855/7 for Jackson.

I'd love some of the Chargers homers in particular to critique this breakdown.

ETA: I'm not sure that Floyd and Davis won't flip flop or more equitably share their projected combined numbers above... but I am assuming Jackson is the #1 and Parker is the second most targeted WR as a reliable possession guy.

Good post JWB. I think you and others in this thread are a bit more optimistic regarding Floyd than I am. I like the guy, but he's a guy who didn't record a catch in '05 and didn't catch a ball in 7 games last year. Supposedly he's beefed way up, but my money would be on Davis to outproduce Floyd in '07.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

My Charger WR projections:

Vincent Jackson: 60 rec, 1021 yards, 7.2 TDs

Craig Davis: 29 rec, 396 yards, 1.7 TDs

Eric Parker: 24 rec, 326 yards, 1.4 TDs

Malcom Floyd: 16 rec, 232 yards, 1.9 TDs

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

By the way, if you go back to the last five games of the season (including playoffs), here is Jackson's percentage of the targets that went to all Charger WRs:

Week 14: 80%

Week 15: 45%

Week 16: 88%

Week 17: 38%

Playoff: 50%

Total: 59%

Jackson got 36 of the 61 targets aimed at Charger WRs over that period. Parker and McCardell were both available for four of those five games, but Jackson had clearly become the #1 WR.

 

[jurb26]

52 rec., 765 yds, 6 TDs

 

[Tau837]

By the way, if you go back to the last five games of the season (including playoffs), here is Jackson's percentage of the targets that went to all Charger WRs:

Week 14: 80%

Week 15: 45%

Week 16: 88%

Week 17: 38%

Playoff: 50%

Total: 59%

Jackson got 36 of the 61 targets aimed at Charger WRs over that period. Parker and McCardell were both available for four of those five games, but Jackson had clearly become the #1 WR.

If you include only the 4 games in which Parker was available, meaning excluding week 16 and counting weeks 14, 15, 17, and 19, here is their breakdown of WR targets:Jackson 22

Parker 18

McCardell 4

Osgood 1

That's 49% for Jackson. Still very good, but not quite as dominant as advertised here.

 

[Banger]

By the way, if you go back to the last five games of the season (including playoffs), here is Jackson's percentage of the targets that went to all Charger WRs:

Week 14: 80%

Week 15: 45%

Week 16: 88%

Week 17: 38%

Playoff: 50%

Total: 59%

Jackson got 36 of the 61 targets aimed at Charger WRs over that period. Parker and McCardell were both available for four of those five games, but Jackson had clearly become the #1 WR.

If you include only the 4 games in which Parker was available, meaning excluding week 16 and counting weeks 14, 15, 17, and 19, here is their breakdown of WR targets:Jackson 22

Parker 18

McCardell 4

Osgood 1

That's 49% for Jackson. Still very good, but not quite as dominant as advertised here.

Those #'s still extrapolate to 88 targets and his target reception rate was sub 50%. Assuming he improves his reception rate 10+% to say 60% that still only works out to be 53 catches.

 

[Tau837]

By the way, if you go back to the last five games of the season (including playoffs), here is Jackson's percentage of the targets that went to all Charger WRs:

Week 14: 80%

Week 15: 45%

Week 16: 88%

Week 17: 38%

Playoff: 50%

Total: 59%

Jackson got 36 of the 61 targets aimed at Charger WRs over that period. Parker and McCardell were both available for four of those five games, but Jackson had clearly become the #1 WR.

If you include only the 4 games in which Parker was available, meaning excluding week 16 and counting weeks 14, 15, 17, and 19, here is their breakdown of WR targets:Jackson 22

Parker 18

McCardell 4

Osgood 1

That's 49% for Jackson. Still very good, but not quite as dominant as advertised here.

Those #'s still extrapolate to 88 targets and his target reception rate was sub 50%. Assuming he improves his reception rate 10+% to say 60% that still only works out to be 53 catches.

I agree. That's why I think a lot of the projections are too high in this thread. Also worth noting: Parker led the team in WR targets last season, with 70. There were only 211 total for all WRs on the team.

 

[Jason Wood]

I think at the end of the day we aren't disagreeing that Jackson will improve or be given the chance to be the top WR on the team. I think we disagree on the magnitude of that improvement and what it means from a fantasy perspective.

These discussions are always beneficial to my FF performance each fall. Looking fwd to seeing your projections. If they are in the 40, 600, 5 range, don't say we'd didn't try to warn you Woodrow.

Nope...they are 55, 850 and 6.

 

[Banger]

Thought this was interesting. While Floyd was playing through week 13 (prior to his season ending ankle injury) the distribution between Floyd/Vjax was as follows.....

Floyd - 12 G - 32 targets - 15 rec - 210 yards - 3 tds

VJax - 12 G - 27 targets - 13 rec - 167 yards - 3 tds

Looks pretty even to me. I'm not saying Floyd will be the "#1" wr but I think many are overlooking his potential cut into VJax's targets. VJax's "ascension" to the #1 role and increased targets looks like it had more to do with the elimination of his competition rather than some leap in ability. This year Floyd is back and apparently looking great, a 3rd year wr, also a huge target (6' 5" like VJax), that Rivers will happily throw to if the coverage is right. Add Parker and their 1st round draft pick Davis (they drafted a need and will use him) into the mix and VJax's target/reception total may be a lot lower than many are projecting.

 

[Jason Wood]

Thought this was interesting. While Floyd was playing through week 13 (prior to his season ending ankle injury) the distribution between Floyd/Vjax was as follows.....Floyd - 12 G - 32 targets - 15 rec - 210 yards - 3 tdsVJax - 12 G - 27 targets - 13 rec - 167 yards - 3 tdsLooks pretty even to me. I'm not saying Floyd will be the "#1" wr but I think many are overlooking his potential cut into VJax's targets. VJax's "ascension" to the #1 role and increased targets looks like it had more to do with the elimination of his competition rather than some leap in ability. This year Floyd is back and apparently looking great and he is also a huge target (6' 5" like VJax) that Rivers will happily throw to if the coverage is right. Add Parker and their 1st round draft pick Davis (they drafted a need and will use him) into the mix and VJax's target/reception total may be a lot lower than many are projecting.

ShhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhDon't go ruining one of the best deep sleepers in the league

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Thought this was interesting. While Floyd was playing through week 13 (prior to his season ending ankle injury) the distribution between Floyd/Vjax was as follows.....Floyd - 12 G - 32 targets - 15 rec - 210 yards - 3 tdsVJax - 12 G - 27 targets - 13 rec - 167 yards - 3 tdsLooks pretty even to me.

Jackson and Floyd were playing a similar role over that period. They were being used in three- and four-receiver sets and in goal line situations.Vincent Jackson will be used in a grater capacity this year, while Floyd may well play the same role in 2007 as he did in 2006.

 

[LHUCKS]

Thought this was interesting. While Floyd was playing through week 13 (prior to his season ending ankle injury) the distribution between Floyd/Vjax was as follows.....Floyd - 12 G - 32 targets - 15 rec - 210 yards - 3 tdsVJax - 12 G - 27 targets - 13 rec - 167 yards - 3 tdsLooks pretty even to me. I'm not saying Floyd will be the "#1" wr but I think many are overlooking his potential cut into VJax's targets. VJax's "ascension" to the #1 role and increased targets looks like it had more to do with the elimination of his competition rather than some leap in ability. This year Floyd is back and apparently looking great and he is also a huge target (6' 5" like VJax) that Rivers will happily throw to if the coverage is right. Add Parker and their 1st round draft pick Davis (they drafted a need and will use him) into the mix and VJax's target/reception total may be a lot lower than many are projecting.

ShhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhDon't go ruining one of the best deep sleepers in the league

 

[Gr00vus]

Nope...they are 55, 850 and 6.

52 rec., 765 yds, 6 TDs

I think these are realistic estimates and that if you go in drafting accordingly and holding the above as your expectations you won't be disappointed with Jackson. I personally think he'll do a bit better, but I'll actually be slotting him on my draft board according to the above. Any higher and it'll be tough for him to be value.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

By the way, if you go back to the last five games of the season (including playoffs), here is Jackson's percentage of the targets that went to all Charger WRs:

Week 14: 80%

Week 15: 45%

Week 16: 88%

Week 17: 38%

Playoff: 50%

Total: 59%

Jackson got 36 of the 61 targets aimed at Charger WRs over that period. Parker and McCardell were both available for four of those five games, but Jackson had clearly become the #1 WR.

If you include only the 4 games in which Parker was available, meaning excluding week 16 and counting weeks 14, 15, 17, and 19, here is their breakdown of WR targets:Jackson 22

Parker 18

McCardell 4

Osgood 1

That's 49% for Jackson. Still very good, but not quite as dominant as advertised here.

Those #'s still extrapolate to 88 targets and his target reception rate was sub 50%. Assuming he improves his reception rate 10+% to say 60% that still only works out to be 53 catches.

The Charger WRs had 211 targets last year, and could easily have more this year if their pass attempts go up.The Chargers ran 988 offensive plays last year. I've got them projected for 987 this year. They ran on 53% of their offensive plays last year (among the highest in the NFL), mostly because they were nursing so many second-half leads (and got way conservative when doing so early in the season). The NFL average in each of the past two seasons was to run on 46.5% of offensive plays, and I think the Chargers will be a lot closer to that this year. So their 466 passing attempts could easily jump up to 520+ attempts, and the WRs' 211 targets could easily go up to 240+.

If Jackson stays healthy all year, I think he is looking at well over 100 targets -- probably in the 110-120 range.